"Hurricano"
by Bill Bonner
Ardmore, Ireland - "Today, we talk meteorology. We are looking at three huge storms...each one with winds driven to gale force by official imbecility...each one gathering strength...and each one whipping up rain and waves into what could become a howling nightmare. What happens when they join forces?
The first one is the oil/war hurricano. It seemed easy enough at first. The US would send its thunderbolts onto Iran. Send its leaders to whatever paradise awaits them. Then, they would know they were licked, and sign whatever paper was put before them. The whole thing was to be finished before baseball season. It didn’t work out that way. Instead, it got messy.
The Iranians were so dumb; they didn’t realize they were beaten. Instead, they hit US bases and pinched off the world’s oil supply. And then, last week, the Houthis got into the act. Reuters: "Oil prices rose on Monday after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis launched missile and drone strikes at Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh on Saturday, escalating tension in the Middle East while the US and Iran remained in stalemate. Brent crude futures climbed 81 cents, or 0.78%, to $104.68 a barrel."
The rise in the price of diesel fuel is a sore spot. Commentators tell us that worse is ahead, as refining capacity has been targeted and stocks are running out. America has plenty of diesel fuel. The risk is only higher diesel prices. Those could be moderated by a presidential proclamation making it illegal to export diesel. This would be a plus for drivers in Ohio, but it would leave Europeans shivering. Cut off the diesel from the US and they are likely to conclude that the Russians aren’t so bad, after all. Diesel fuel was $3.63/gallon when Trump came into office. It’s now more than $6 a gallon. Not a good ‘optic’ for the upcoming elections, which is where the second big storm makes landfall.
In the face of rising gas prices and bungled war efforts, the electorate may be turning against the people responsible for it. In the last presidential election, Trump was able to position himself as the candidate with the fury and strength needed for change. No one really knew what changes might come...or what they might mean...including, most probably, the candidate himself. But the voters took him back for a second chance.
The Democrats had nothing going for them. Their candidate was weak. They offered only ‘more of the same,’ served with day old bread. But now it is Mr. Trump who offers leftovers. And it’s Democrats who rage against the menu. Even ‘socialists’ - who couldn’t hope to get elected class president a few years ago - are now making electoral history.
But neither party has much change to offer. Their pockets are empty. The key challenges for a declining empire are its military quagmires and its financial insolvency. Typically, it runs out of money while it engages in expensive, useless wars. Both Democrats and Republicans are committed to sticking to the script. Mr. Trump urges Republicans to make the election not about policies, but about himself. This could be a mistake. Newsweek: Donald Trump’s approval rating hits all-time low
Meanwhile, the eye of the third giant storm is centered on the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, with a second center of low pressure over Tokyo. CNN: Global bond markets are getting hammered. And from Japan comes this alarm: "Japan Hikes Interest Rates To Record High Levels, Yen Still Falls."
Mr. Scott Bessent says he is ‘the house’ now. And yes, he may be in the house. But he doesn’t own the house...and doesn’t ultimately decide what goes on in it.
Mr. Market does that. And after a 40-year period of falling yields (rising bond prices), Mr. Market decided that it was time for a change of his own. A real change. So, he switched it up...the bull market in bonds came to an end in July 2020. Since then, the yield on 10-year T-note - the diesel fuel of dollar finance - has gone up more than four times.
The trouble is, there is a pile of debt - maybe trillions of it - that was incurred when rates were much lower...and finds it difficult to breathe at today’s much higher elevations. It needs to be refinanced...along with as much as $3 trillion more (if Trump sends out his $5,000 payoffs to the voters.) The barometer is falling. And Bessent’s cheap plywood, nailed up crooked, in a hurry, won’t stop it."
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