"The Biden Line Shuffle"
by Bill Bonner
"Yes, I know I’ve been untrue,
I have hurt you through and through.
But have mercy on this heart of mine,
Won’t you take me back and try me one more time."
- Ernest Tubb, "Try Me One More Time"
Ardmore, Ireland - "The approaching midterm elections walked upon the stage yesterday. The Republicans are now the ruling party; what do they have to offer but ‘more of the same’ in November? But more of the same is not what people seem to be pining for. Who lusts after $6-a-gallon diesel fuel? Wall Street Journal: "White House Considers Ban on Diesel Exports as Prices Keep Rising." Plus: The Trump administration is cracking down on imports of polysilicon for chips and solar panels. Who wants to add to America’s $40 trillion debt Everest...or yearns to pay a 7% mortgage rate on a $450,000 house?
Donald Trump senses that voters are not excited by the prospect of more of his policies. DOGE, tariffs, war - none have brought the success he promised. So, he suggested that they ignore the policies and instead focus on him, personally. ‘Just imagine that I am on the ballot,’ he says. But voters don’t seem to want more of Donald Trump either. The polls are showing his approval ratings crashing down...to something pollsters are calling ‘the Biden line,’ the level of Biden’s approval when he finally shuffled offstage. HuffPost: "Donald Trump’s Poll Numbers Sink To A Place They’ve Never Been Before."
The president’s fellow Republicans are souring on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran war, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. By January 2025, pollsters were showing a 39% approval of the Biden Administration - the lowest for any modern president. A Fox poll showed Trump doing no better.
Sequels were popular during the Eisenhower years. People were basically content with what they had seen so far; they thought ‘Ike and Dick’ were ‘sure to click’ in 1957, just as they did in 1956. And the record seemed to prove it. Eisenhower was president from 1953 to 1961. During that time, US debt went down...not up, from 70% of GDP it declined to just 50%.
Part of that resulted from growth. US GDP increased 25% during the Eisenhower years. And it was real growth. GDP numbers can be greatly flattered by starting a war, which is how FDR and LBJ got ‘growth.’ But spent cartridges didn’t bring much happiness. Eisenhower, the old soldier, knew it. He cut military spending by 27% and let real output - houses, Buicks, vacuum cleaners...and a week at the lake - improve living standards.
And the numbers were honest. This was when the dollar was still backed by gold. No funny money back then. Wages rose too. After a brief setback - 1953-1954 - median family incomes rose with GDP to about 25% higher in 1961. And almost universally, by the early ‘60s, people expected their children to do even better. America was on an upwards course; few people doubted it. From being on ‘top of the world’ after WWII, it was headed to the moon...life would get better and better, forever and ever, amen.
Comes 2026, though, and the world has turned. Voters saw what happened in the last two years. ‘More of the same’ seems more like a threat than a campaign slogan. And if the election were held today, the ‘more of the same’ party - Republicans - would probably lose control of both the House and the Senate. Charlie Bilello: "Polymarket currently has the odds of the Democrats winning the House at 93% and the Senate at 64%. Which means the most likely outcome after November is a divided government, and legislative gridlock for the next two years."
Republican lawmakers are in the doghouse. Still, they hope voters will take them back and try them one more time. But it looks like voters have had enough already."
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Ernest Tubb, "Try Me One More Time"
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