"The Food Supply Chain Is Breaking. Again"

"The Food Supply Chain Is Breaking. Again"

by John Rubino

"Spring has sprung, which means seeds that were planted in late winter are starting to germinate. They’re hungry and will only grow to their full nutritional potential if they’re well fed. But that, apparently, isn’t happening, as fertilizer supplies are interrupted by yet another pointless Middle East war. The result? Global food shortages that might dwarf the COVID-era Costco-hoarding mess of recent memory. Here’s an overview: Shanaka Anslem Perera @shanaka86

BREAKING: The nitrogen trap just closed. Three locks snapped shut simultaneously. The planting window is closing behind them. And the food the world eats next year is now being decided by molecules that cannot reach the soil in time.

Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertilizer vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet.

Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertilizer that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address.

Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar.

The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems. These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed.

The US Corn Belt window closes mid-April. European top-dressing is happening now. Indian Kharif preparation begins in May. Bangladeshi Boro rice transplanting is underway this week. Every one of these windows is closing while the three largest sources of nitrogen on Earth are simultaneously locked: Hormuz by military blockade, Russia by export decree, China by trade ban.

The USDA Prospective Plantings report arrives March 31. The FAO Food Price Index publishes April 3. These will quantify what the molecules already know: the nitrogen did not arrive. The yield loss is locked in. The 5 to 10 percent global drag will concentrate where the buffers are thinnest: subsistence farms in Bangladesh, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, where a 20 percent shortfall does not mean lower profits. It means hunger.

Sri Lanka banned synthetic fertilizer in 2021. Rice yields collapsed 40 percent. The government fell. In 2008, fertiliser and oil spiked simultaneously and food riots erupted across 30 countries. In 2026, the strait blocks fertilizer while Russia and China withdraw the alternatives, and the planting windows close on a planet with nowhere else to turn.

The war is fought with missiles. The famine is fought with molecules. The molecules are trapped behind three locks on three continents, timed to the one calendar that cannot be paused, extended, or negotiated: the calendar written into the DNA of every seed in the soil. Read a deeper dive here.

This is Why We Should Have Gardens…and Gold, Goats, and Guns: Even after the pandemic, many (most?) people in the developed world continue to view “food supply chain disruption” as a tin-foil-hat concern. They’re apparently wrong. Again. And note that higher food prices are just the first-order effect of a fertilizer shortage. The second and third-order impacts are geopolitical and possibly military. So let this latest “peak complexity” signal encourage you to keep prepping. Anticipate shortages, higher prices, even more chaotic politics, and take some of the steps we’ve been discussing here."

- https://rubino.substack.com/

If they'll do this over a TV, what happens when there's no food?

"Jar Farming for Dummies"

"Jar Farming for Dummies"

By MN Gordon

"Starting a big war in the Middle East is much easier than stopping it. This is the lesson President Trump is now learning. After one month of dropping bombs and launching missiles at Iran, Trump has called for a time out. A proposed one-month ceasefire. He even put a 15-point peace plan on the table. It was delivered via intermediaries in Pakistan. The proposal included a comprehensive off-ramp to address everything from nuclear disarmament and missile limits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran quickly put a match to it and countered with five conditions of its own – including demands for reparations.

It was but one month ago when Operation Epic Fury kicked off. What was intended to be a brief operation of destruction rained down on Iran, turned into something much greater. The initial shock and awe adeptly targeted high-level leadership and missile infrastructure. But the operation quickly spiraled into a larger war of attrition that physically severed the world’s most vital energy artery – the Strait of Hormuz.

The initial success was overshadowed by a grim, structural reality. Market volatility is one thing. Physical depletion of global resource reserves, which puts a big squeeze on every major economy, is entirely another. Perhaps some limited shipping will be allowed to traverse the Strait as the war rages on. One can only hope. Because if it remains closed for another 30 days, the emergency oil and gas reserves held by nations like Japan and Germany will stop flowing. In fact, hundreds of gas stations have already run dry across Australia.

One more month of this will have dramatic consequences. Namely, it will result in the forced deindustrialization of energy-dependent economies as critical links in the world’s just-in-time supply chain breakdown. When shipping containers stack up in idle ports and fertilizer plants go dark, the survival of economies across the globe are at risk.

Physical Shortages: Month one, by and large, was nothing. The impacts to the average person were mainly limited to sticker shock at the gas pump. Brent crude briefly spiked above $120 a barrel, and everyone’s 401(k) took a modest nosedive. Month two, however, is when things really start to get serious. That’s when higher prices are met with physical shortages. The next 30 days are the real make or break moment for the global economy.

In March, the world survived on oil and gas that was already in the pipes and the tanks. The U.S. and its allies tapped into strategic reserves to help buffer the price spikes. But those reserves are a very short-term solution. Around 20 percent of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is currently trapped behind the Strait. QatarEnergy, the world’s LNG heavyweight, has had to declare force majeure on exports.

Most major industrial centers in Europe and Asia keep about 30 to 45 days of gas in easily accessible storage. If the Strait doesn’t open by mid-April, we aren’t just talking about higher gas prices and heating bills. We’re talking about mandatory industrial shutdowns. If you can’t power the factory, you can’t make the product.

Similarly, if you can’t supply fertilizer, you can’t grow food. In addition to being one of the world’s top suppliers of oil and gas, the Persian Gulf is also one of the world’s top suppliers of agricultural fertilizers. What’s more, fertilizer shortages couldn’t have come at a worse time. It’s spring planting season in the northern hemisphere. Farmers in the U.S. Midwest, Brazil, and India are looking at prices of nitrogen fertilizers that are 30 percent to 50 percent more expensive than they were four weeks ago. And that’s if they can find them at all. If supply constraints persist through April, farmers will simply plant less or conserve fertilizer. That means lower crop yields this fall. Moreover, it means there will be a global food security emergency that will peak in about six months.

Energy Holidays and Empty Shelves: You may have also heard of looming helium shortages. Most of the world’s helium, which is essential for cooling the machines that make high-end AI chips, comes from Qatar. High-end semiconductor fabricators in Taiwan and Arizona have about a three-month buffer of these specialty gases. One month’s supply is already gone. If we lose another, there could be a shortage of chips that power everything from your phone to the newest AI models.

If the Keep Out signs stay up at the Strait through April, there could be several disagreeable consequences. For example, there will be energy holidays (i.e., forced rationing) in energy-hungry nations. Factories that make cars, plastics, and chemicals will go dark to conserve power for hospitals and homes.

Shipping companies will also avoid the Persian Gulf. This will add an additional 15-day detour around Africa for goods being shipped from Asia to Europe. The additional transport time will add costs to imported goods.

Many economies were already stalling out before the attacks on Iran. But now, if 20 percent of the world’s oil remains offline through May, it’s a near certainty that major economies like Germany, Japan, and China – and the USA – will slip into a recession. In short, month one was merely a siren. Month two is the start of the actual physical impact. Specifically, the global economy will move from higher costs to shortages.

A world where shortages of everything from medical instruments to basic consumer electronics and manufacturing components, and essentials like gasoline and fresh fruits and vegetables, could soon be the reality. The buffer period provided by global strategic reserves is disappearing with each passing day. While the first 30 days stimulated a chaotic news cycle and wild market swings. The next 30 days will stimulate a structural shift in how people live.

Jar Farming for Dummies: At this point, there doesn’t appear to be a quick and easy end to the war with Iran that will restore passage of the Strait of Hormuz. If anything, things are escalating with the prospect of ground troops becoming more and more likely. So, without reservation, hard times are coming to a town near you.

The just-in-time world was not built for a sustained severance of its primary jugular. When the oil and gas stops flowing, the helium stops cooling the fabrication machines in Taiwan, and the nitrogen stops hitting the soil in the Midwest, the convenience and abundance of modern life break down. So, too, does the debt and the credit edifice that sustains it.

As part of the New Year edition of the Economic Prism, in the closing section titled Preparing for Chaos, we included one practical action you can take to prepare for war, inflation, or the breakdown of an ever-increasing complex digital world.Many people laughed at our suggestion. Few took our advice. But, for fun and for free, we’ll revisit this simple, but important recommendation…

Assuming you have food storage, and some basic backup power such as a simple battery storage system that can charge with portable solar panels, there is the critical, and often overlooked need for micronutrients. After two weeks, no matter how much protein and carbs you have, you need micronutrients for your brain and body, or you start losing mental clarity, strength, and a well-functioning digestive system. The simple solution is sprouting.

To get started, take a look at Sprout People. There you will find a great education section – simplified for dummies – and a large variety of nutrients you probably never imagined could be sprouted. We have no financial or business arrangement or affiliation with Sprout People. We’re merely passing on information we believe you will find valuable. When the time comes, the ability to be a ‘jar farmer’ to sustain health via sprouts will be essential."

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/