Saturday, October 1, 2022

"Surviving The War"

"Surviving The War"
by The Zman

"There was a time when normal Americans thought about how to survive a nuclear exchange with the Russians. During the Cold War, this seemed like a real prospect, so there was a reason to think about it. Into the 1960’s school kids had to do the hide under the desk thing, which was mostly about conditioning people to accept permanent war, but it conditioned people to the idea of being nuked. How to make it through a nuclear war became something of an industry.

There were two schools of thought on the subject back then. One said that any hint of a nuclear attack by either side would result in a mag dump by both sides. The United States and the Soviet Union were in a prisoner’s dilemma. If either side showed restraint, then they risked the other side striking first and possibly making it impossible to retaliate, so logic said to send all of your missiles first. Both sides accepted this logic which is why a system was put in place to prevent it.

From a survival perspective, such a scenario made the prospects for anyone living through it extremely low. The arsenals at the time were larger than today and the assumption was they could wipe out all life on the planet. The initial blasts would kill most people, but the fallout and nuclear winter would kill the rest. Even if people survived somehow, the numbers would be tiny. There was simply no point in preparing for what would be instant death for almost everyone.

The other school of thought was more optimistic. War would escalate with an initial exchange that might not lead to a mag dump. Even if the will were there to send all the missiles, many people would refuse to push the button. The disruption from the initial strikes would also render communications useless. The example of Vasili Arkhipov seemed like proof that a full scale exchange was unlikely. That meant it was possible to survive a nuclear war if you were prepared.

Today, that last scenario is more plausible. Nuclear arsenals are much smaller than during the Cold War. No one is really sure that the antique systems on which these weapons rely would work under stress. The American ICBM system still relies upon 1970’s technology. The Russian systems are similarly antiquated. The most likely scenario is that the major powers are no longer functional after a nuclear exchange, so lots of people survive the event.

The first step in surviving a nuclear war is to avoid a direct hit. Washington DC will get several direct hits and the initial flash will vaporize most of the population. The shock wave will level most of the city. By now, the Russians and Chinese know to target Northern Virginia, so it will be a saturation bombing. The five percent that survive the initial blast will be radiated and die soon thereafter. Therefore, the first rule of nuke club is to be outside the target zone.

The safe bet is to be away from the coasts. The Rockies or Appalachia are the best bet for making it through the first stage. Denver will be nuked, for sure, but the damage will be contained to that plateau. People in the mountains will escape the flash and the blast, even if Denver takes multiple strikes. The Green Briar will get hit, for old times sake, but most of West Virginia will be spared. There are lots of places to escape the flash and the blast in the mountains.

Once things settle after the final missile strikes, there will be four key things to surviving the aftermath. You will need water, shelter, food and a way to defend yourself from the people who were not prepared. Imagine a land ravaged by mask wearing Covidians and you get the picture. You will have to be prepared to kill a lot of people in order to avoid ending up like them. This means you need to pick a spot that has access to water, a food source and is defendable.

Since a post-nuclear America is going to look like the frontier as far as you are concerned, you are going to need frontier skills. You will need to know how to make a fire, provide yourself basic medical care and know how to hunt and fish. If your location is near a river, then you can initially get by with fishing and water from the river, but you have to boil the water and cook the fish. The ability to make fire without modern items like a lighter or matches is essential.

Once you have sorted the location and provided yourself with the frontier skills required to live in the wild, you need to think about the defense issue. A man alone is easy prey, even to desperate city people roaming the countryside. It would be better to have a tribe that can work together for common defense. That means you either need the skills to create a tribe from who is left or you have to create a tribe now. One way or the other, survival will depend upon community.

This basic framework of preparedness is just scratching the surface, but it does provide the basis for building a survival plan. For example, you will not want modern firearms for defense in the post-nuclear world. Making your own gunpowder for modern ammunition is not realistic. You can make black powder from raw materials. That means the old fashioned muzzleloader is a good weapon to own and master. Of course, older range weapons like spears and bows are an option.

The same applies to tools. Creating your own electric for powering modern tools is possible, but not very practical. If you assume society takes generations to bounce back from the holocaust, then it makes no sense to rely upon modern tools. They will break and you will not be able to fix them. The same would apply to vehicles. Old cars need gasoline and lubricants. Even if you stock those, they will run out eventually and your vehicles become lawn ornaments.

This is why forming communities in advance of the holocaust is critical. You can plan for the two general scenarios. The first scenario is the world steps back to the pre-industrial age and does not bounce back. The other scenario is the people responsible manage to survive and quickly set about recreating the modern world by bringing things like the power grid on-line. Do you want to play a role in that rebuilding or do you want to seek vengeance on them?

Community building in advance lets you wargame these issues. It also makes survival much more likely. No one man can know everything or prepare for everything, so having help increases your odds of survival dramatically. It also provides the means for surviving what comes after the initial devastation. In a post-nuclear world, tribalism will be the key to survival, which means the best tribe wins. Of course, that is also why the world was blown up, but that is a story for another day."
“You should know by and large we haven’t started anything...YET.”
- Vladimir Putin

Canadian Prepper, "I Got a Message... And Everything Is Just Fine!"

Canadian Prepper, 10/1/22:
"I Got a Message... And Everything Is Just Fine!"
Somethings isn't right here...
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Peder B. Helland, "Sunny Mornings"

Full screen recommended.
Peder B. Helland, Soothing Relaxation,
"Sunny Mornings"
"I am a composer from Norway and I started this channel with a simple vision: to create a place that you can visit whenever you want to sit down and relax. I compose music that can be labeled as for example: sleep music, calm music, yoga music, study music, peaceful music, beautiful music and relaxing music. I love to compose music and I put a lot of work into it.

Thank you very much for listening and for leaving feedback. Every single day I am completely astonished by all your warm support and it really inspires me to work even harder on my music. If you enjoy my work, I would be very happy if you decided to subscribe and join our community. Have a wonderful day or evening!"
- Peder B. Helland, composer for Soothing Relaxation

"A Look to the Heavens"

“These three bright nebulae are often featured in telescopic tours of the constellation Sagittarius and the crowded starfields of the central Milky Way. In fact, 18th century cosmic tourist Charles Messier cataloged two of them; M8, the large nebula left of center, and colorful M20 on the right. The third, NGC 6559, is above M8, separated from the larger nebula by a dark dust lane. All three are stellar nurseries about five thousand light-years or so distant.
The expansive M8, over a hundred light-years across, is also known as the Lagoon Nebula. M20's popular moniker is the Trifid. Glowing hydrogen gas creates the dominant red color of the emission nebulae, with contrasting blue hues, most striking in the Trifid, due to dust reflected starlight. The colorful skyscape recorded with telescope and digital camera also includes one of Messier's open star clusters, M21, just above the Trifid.”
"When I heard the learn’d astronomer,
When the proofs, the figures, were ranged
in columns before me,
When I was shown the charts and diagrams,
to add, divide, and measure them,
When I sitting heard the astronomer where
he lectured with much applause in the lecture-room,
How soon unaccountable I became tired and sick,
Till rising and gliding out I wander’d off by myself,
In the mystical moist night-air, and from time to time,
Look’d up in perfect silence at the stars."
- Walt Whitman

Chet Raymo, “Angling For Happiness”

“Angling For Happiness”
by Chet Raymo

“There is a concept in physics called angle of repose. Set an object, a book say, on a plank. Now slowly tip up one end of the plank until the moment when the book just starts to slide. The angle between the plank and the horizontal is the angle of repose, where the component of the gravitational force down the plank becomes greater than the maximum friction force holding the book at rest. Or, in more evocative terms - as I write I am lying on the couch with the laptop in my lap, in perfect repose. If you started tipping up the couch, at some point I'd go sliding into a heap at the bottom. That's the angle of repose, or perhaps it would be more accurate to call it the angle of the end of repose.

This comes to mind because I just spent fifteen minutes on my knees in the yard watching ants excavate a nest in the ground. One by one they scurry out of the hole carrying a tiny grain of sand, which they dump in a ring around the hole. A circular pile. Now if the ants just dumped their burdens at the mouth of the hole, pretty soon the pile would get so steep that the sand grains would slide back into the hole. Instead, the circular ring gets higher and wider, with a slope that never exceeds the angle at which the grains will slip - the angle of repose. Now here's the thing: the ants almost invariably carry their grain to just beyond the top of the pile. If the grain slips, it will slide away from the hole. These tiny ants, hardly bigger than sand grains themselves, understand a little physics in their mysterious instinctive way.

Wallace Stegner has a novel titled "Angle of Repose." It is indeed an evocative phrase. In a job, in a relationship, in life itself, many of us instinctively seek that maximum degree of individual gratification that will satisfy emotional needs without doing violence to our essential repose, and that of those around us - the art of walking close to the edge, the thrill without the spill. Every day in the news we hear of folks - politicians or celebrities - who tipped the plank too far, whose lives went sliding into self-destruction, who failed to grasp, metaphorically speaking, something that a tiny ant instinctively understands.”

"A Very Fit Consideration..."

“How vast those Orbs must be, and how inconsiderable this Earth, the Theatre upon which all our mighty Designs, all our Navigations, and all our Wars are transacted, is when compared to them. A very fit consideration, and matter of Reflection, for those Kings and Princes who sacrifice the Lives of so many People, only to flatter their Ambition in being Masters of some pitiful corner of this small Spot.”
- Christiaan Huygens, (1629-1695)

“A Brief Disagreement”

Full screen recommended.
Steve Cutts, “A Brief Disagreement”
"A visual journey into mankind's favorite pastime throughout the ages."
There's a bloodthirsty "something" in our DNA.
This is who we are, this is what we love...
"One source claims that 14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace."
An example, very accurately depicting "mankind's favorite pastime":
Full screen recommended.
"Siege of Jerusalem 1187 AD, Saladin Vs Crusaders" 
There are many additional depictions on YouTube.


"Sometimes even to live is an act of courage."
- Lucius Annaeus Seneca

"Banks are Going to the Mattresses - Plus The Air Show"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/1/22:
"Banks are Going to the Mattresses - 
Plus The Air Show"
"We are at the Pacific Airshow in Huntington Beach California. The banks are going to the mattresses. There is going to be old school fighting it out for survival at our expense. It’s going to be cutthroat and we’re going to be the victims of all this."
Comments here:

"We Are In Massive Trouble; Thousands Of Ford Super Duty Trucks Rotting In Kentucky; Fake People"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/1/22:
"We Are In Massive Trouble; Thousands Of Ford 
Super Duty Trucks Rotting In Kentucky; Fake People"
Comments here:
Full screen recommended.
"Thousands Of Ford Super Duty Trucks"

The Daily "Near You?"

Pawleys Island, South Carolina, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Does A 1904 Geopolitical Theory Explain The War In Ukraine?"

"Does A 1904 Geopolitical Theory Explain The War In Ukraine?"
by John Wilder

"When I look at the war in Ukraine and other world events, I see evidence of Sir Halford John Mackinder. It would have been cool if he was the frontman for a 1910s version of Judas Priest, but no. Mackinder was a guy who thought long and hard about mountains, deserts, oceans, steppes, and wars. You could tell Mackinder was going to be good at geography, what with that latitude. The result of all this pondering was what he called the Heartland Theory, which was the founding moment for geopolitics.

What’s geopolitics? It’s the idea that one of the biggest influencers in human history (besides being human) was the geography we inhabit. Mackinder’s first version wasn’t very helpful, since he just ended up with “Indonesia” and the rest of the world, which he called “Outdonesia”.

Mackinder focused mainly on the Eurasian continent. Flat land with no obstacles meant, in Mackinder’s mind, that the land would be eventually ruled by a single power. Jungles and swamps could be a barrier, but eventually he thought that technology would solve that. Mountains? Mountains were obstacles that stopped invasions, and allowed cultures to develop independently. Even better than a mountain? An island.

There’s even a theory (not Mackinder’s) that the independent focus on freedom flourished in England because the local farmers weren’t (after the Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Mormons, and Vikings were done pillaging) subject to invasion and were able to develop a culture based on a government with limited powers, along with rights invested in every man.

Mackinder went further, though. He saw the combination of Eurasia and Africa as something he called the World Island. If the World Island came under the domination of a single power, he thought, it would eventually rule the rest of the world – it would have overwhelming resources and population, and it would have the ability to outproduce (both economically and militarily) everything else. “Pivot Area” is what Mackinder first called the Heartland.

Mackinder, being English, had seen the Great Game in the 1900s, which in many cases was a fight to keep Russia landlocked. The rest of Europe feared a Russia that had access to the sea. Conversely, Russia itself was the Heartland of the Mackinder’s World Island. Russia was separated and protected on most of its borders by mountains and deserts. On the north, Russia was protected by the Arctic Ocean, which is generally more inaccessible than most of Joe Biden’s recent memories.

Russia is still essentially landlocked. The Soviet Navy had some nice submarines, but outside of that, the Russians have never been a naval power, and the times Russia attempted to make a navy have been so tragically inept that well, let me give an example: The sea Battle of Tsushima between the Japanese and Russians in 1905 was a Japanese victory. The Japanese lost 117 dead, 583 wounded, and lost 3 torpedo boats. The Russians? They lost 5,045 dead, 803 injured, 6,016 captured, 6 battleships sunk, 2 battleships captured. The Russians sank 450 ton of the Japanese Navy. The Japanese sunk 126,792 tons of the Russian fleet. Yup. This was more lopsided than a fight between a poodle and a porkchop.

Mackinder noted that the Heartland (Russia) was built on land power. The Rimlands (or, on the map “Inner Crescent”) were built on sea power. In the end, almost all of the twentieth century was built on keeping Russia away from the ocean, and fighting over Eastern Europe. Why? In Mackinder’s mind, “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland (Russia); Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; Who rules the World Island commands the World.” In one sense, it’s true.

Mackinder finally in 1943 came up with another idea, his first idea being lonely. I think he could see the way World War II was going to end, so he came up with the idea that if the United States were to team up with Western Europe, they could still command the Rimlands and contain the Soviet Union to the Heartland.

There are several reasons that the United States has responded with such an amazing amount of aid to Ukraine. $60 billion dollars? Some people don’t work a whole year and get that much money. No, the idea is to bleed Putin as deeply and completely as they can. Why? If they’re following Mackinder, this keeps Russia vulnerable. It keeps Eastern Europe from being under Russia’s control – if you count the number of “Battles of Kiev” or “Battles of Kharkov” you can see that it’s statistically more likely to rain artillery in Kiev than rain water.

This might be the major driver for Russia, too. A Russian-aligned (or at least neutral) Ukraine nicely plugs the Russian southern flank. And this is nearly the last year that Russia can make this attempt – the younger generation isn’t very big, and the older generation that built and can run all of the cool Soviet tech? They’re dying off. Soon all their engineers with relevant weapons manufacturing experience will be...dead. If Russia is going to attempt to secure the south, this is their only shot. Depending on how vulnerable the Russians think they are, the harder they’ll fight. NATO nations tossing in weapons isn’t helping the famous Russian paranoia.

I think that the United States, in getting cozy with China in the 1970s, was following along with Mackinder’s theory – I believe Mackinder himself said that a Chinese-Russian alliance could effectively control the Heartland and split the Rimland, given China’s access to the oceans. And that’s what China is doing now, with the Belt and Road Initiative. Remember Mackinder’s World Island? Here’s a map of the countries participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative:
Spoiler alert: It’s the world island."
Full screen recommended.
"Halford Mackinder, Heartland Theory and Geographical Pivot 1"
by Geopoliticus

"In this presentation we discuss the theory for Geographic Causation in Universal History proposed by Sir Halford Mackinder in his paper - "The Geographic Pivot of History" delivered as a lecture in 1904. The theoretical propositions in the paper regarding how natural geography controls the flow of history of civilizations - with nature acting as a stage for man to act upon - was the most relevant contribution of Halford Mackinder towards developing a philosophic synthesis between geography, history and statesmanship, leading to the development of modern geopolitics.

In this part we see how he proposes the beginning of a new era in the international system from the 1900s, predicts (in a way) the break out of the First World War, and builds a unified model based on Geo-history for understanding the emergence and evolution of European civilization."
Full screen recommended.
"Halford Mackinder, Heartland Theory and Geographical Pivot 2"
by Geopoliticus

"In this presentation we view Mackinder’s historical analysts by looking at the interactions between different Geographic zones, seeing how the Mongols used land power to unify the core of the World Island and how Europeans circumvented nomadic heartland power by investing in sea power. The core idea of Halford Mackinder’s Thesis was that in the beginning of the 20th century, geographers needed to develop a philosophical synthesis of geographical conditions and historical trajectories of nations over long ranges of time.

He attempted to do this for the history of Eurasia, which he called, the World Island. According to his theoretical model, there was a link between geographical conditions and the nature of geopolitical order, for one, but for further depth in understanding historical trajectories we need to do a wider scale analysis of interactions between different geographically influenced political orders by building a model of Heartland-Rimland interactions across history."
Freely download "The Geographical Pivot of History"
by HJ Mackinder, April 1904, here:
Why is this important? Consider history, from which we learn nothing...

"The earliest evidence of prehistoric warfare is a Mesolithic cemetery in Jebel Sahaba, which has been determined to be approximately 14,000 years old. About forty-five percent of the skeletons there displayed signs of violent death. Since the rise of the state some 5,000 years ago, military activity has occurred over much of the globe. The advent of gunpowder and the acceleration of technological advances led to modern warfare. According to Conway W. Henderson, "One source claims that 14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace." An unfavorable review of this estimate  mentions the following regarding one of the proponents of this estimate: "In addition, perhaps feeling that the war casualties figure was improbably high, he changed 'approximately 3,640,000,000 human beings have been killed by war or the diseases produced by war' to 'approximately 1,240,000,000 human beings.'" 

The lower figure is more plausible, but could still be on the high side considering that the 100 deadliest acts of mass violence between 480 BC and 2002 AD (wars and other man-made disasters with at least 300,000 and up to 66 million victims) claimed about 455 million human lives in total. Primitive warfare is estimated to have accounted for 15.1% of deaths and claimed 400 million victims. Added to the aforementioned figure of 1,240 million between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, this would mean a total of 1,640,000,000 people killed by war (including deaths from famine and disease caused by war) throughout the history and pre-history of mankind. For comparison, an estimated 1,680,000,000 people died from infectious diseases in the 20th century."
"It would indeed be a tragedy if the history of the human 
race proved to be nothing more than the story of an 
ape playing with a box of matches on a petrol dump."
- David Ormsby-Gore

"Weighing The Costs"

"Weighing The Costs"
by Addison Wiggin

“A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.”
- Plato

"The War in Europe presents a plethora of moral dilemmas. The most pressing issue for everyday Americans is the lack of energy coming out of Russia. Mackinder called it “the Heartland” for a reason… Russia as a landmass alone presents itself as extremely rich in resources, and most literally pumps them into Western European countries. The United States only accounts for 4.2% of the world’s population. But we act like we own all the resources on the planet. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has engaged everyone who eats food or burns fossil fuels.

Let’s let President Biden take that bait. The big question, according to Foreign Policy magazine, is whether the Energy Crisis ends up undermining support for Ukraine. In a piece titled “Putin’s Energy War is Crushing Europe,” reporter Christina Lu writes: "Germany is now reportedly moving to nationalize three major gas giants – Uniper, VNG and SEFE – in a historic intervention that would help rescue them from the brink. Mounting economic losses have “brought these companies financially to their knees,” Alex Munton, an expert on global gas markets at Rapidan Energy Group said. Without relief, he added, “At some point, things do reach a breaking point, and that’s sort of where we’ve got to.”

You could potentially have a situation where citizens become really unhappy and they start to blame governments for it, and maybe governments will start to go their own way and look out for their own interests.

Another article accuses: “You have no idea how bad Europe’s energy crisis is.” We beg to differ. After much proselytizing on the part of the EU, the harsh reality of a coming “Nightmare Winter” is revealing that the EU spread themselves too thin with their promises of going green. We agreed with this week’s guest on The Wiggin Sessions, Nomi Prins, that “you can’t simply flip a switch and go from dirty energy to green.” The technology is not there. The resources are not there. And winter is fast approaching.

The fear of war and famine and the cold of winter are proving more powerful than people can handle, and forcing us to reckon with ourselves. So it goes..."
"Will This Be the Worst Crisis Ever?"
"Wealthy 73-year-old U.S. entrepreneur retreats to one of his three European properties to issue serious warning (and 4 recommendations) for Americans. "It falls on someone like me to warn you clearly. I'm too rich to care about money - and too old to care what anyone thinks." Click here for details...

"Putin Declares 4 Annexed Regions "Ours Forever", Blames US For Nord Stream Attacks" (Excerpt)

Full screen recommended.
"Vladimir Putin hosts a signing ceremony for 
the annexation of four areas of Ukraine."
"Putin Declares 4 Annexed Regions "Ours Forever", 
Blames US For Nord Stream Attacks"
by Tyler Durden

Excerpt: "With the ink drying on the official annexation declarations newly signed by the heads of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Friday's historic ceremony - the key takeaway from President Putin's lengthy speech is that he declared a "mission accomplished" of sorts. He said these eastern and southern provinces are now part of Russia "forever". He even touted that the referendums were accomplished in line with the UN charter on self-determination for all peoples, and vowed "They have made their choice... this is the only path to peace. We will protect our land using all our forces and we will protect their security. We will of course rebuild all destroyed towns and continue building hospitals, theaters, and schools."

Putin bluntly informed the large audience of top officials at Saint George's Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace of Moscow that there are now "four new regions of Russia" - a fait accompli that the Ukrainian government and its Western backers are rejecting, also on fresh reports that pro-Kremlin forces have suffered more setbacks in Donetsk in particular. Earlier in the week Moscow acknowledged that its "special operation" will continue until at least all of Donetsk is captured. At this point, none of the entirety of each of the four regions are yet under total Russian military control, the overwhelming "yes" votes among citizens in favor of joining the Russian Federation notwithstanding.

This means Kiev is of course unlikely to accept Putin's essential assertion of we've taken the four territories, now let the negotiations begin [our paraphrase]. "We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately stop hostilities and sit at the negotiating table," Putin said.

Certainly Washington and London will seek to ensure Kiev isn't enticed by this - also as the weapons shipments continue to ramp up, with longer range missile systems in the pipeline to boot. As for the newly annexed territories, Putin made clear in his speech that we "won't negotiate the status of the annexed territories" and further that he "won't discuss" the now finalized results of the referendums. This follows Crimea having long been taken off the table since its own popular referendum and annexation in 2014."
Full article here:

"And Those Who Were Seen Dancing..."

“And those who were seen dancing were thought to be
 insane by those who could not hear the music.”
- Friedrich Nietzsche

"Frustrating Shopping Day At Kroger! Prices Are Just Crazy! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/1/22:
"Frustrating Shopping Day At Kroger! 
Prices Are Just Crazy! What's Next?"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"Do You Want..."

"Do you want to live life, or do you want to escape life?"
- Macklemore

Free Download: George Orwell, “Animal Farm"

"Animal Farm"
by George Orwell

Biographical note: "George Orwell, 1903-1950, was the pen name used by British author and journalist Eric Arthur Blair. During most of his professional life time Orwell was best known for his journalism, both in the British press and in books such as "Homage to Catalonia," describing his activities during the Spanish Civil War, and "Down and Out in Paris and London," describing a period of poverty in these cities. Orwell is best remembered today for two of his novels, "Animal Farm" and "Nineteen Eighty-Four."

Description: Power corrupts, but absolute power corrupts absolutely- and this is vividly and eloquently proved in Orwell's short novel. "Animal Farm" is a simple fable of great symbolic value, and as Orwell himself explained: "it is the history of a revolution that went wrong." The novel can be seen as the historical analysis of the causes of the failure of communism, or as a mere fairy-tale; in any case it tells a good story that aims to prove that human nature and diversity prevent people from being equal and happy, or at least equally happy.

"Animal Farm" tells the simple and tragic story of what happens when the oppressed farm animals rebel, drive out Mr. Jones, the farmer, and attempt to rule the farm themselves, on an equal basis. What the animals seem to have aimed at was a utopian sort of communism, where each would work according to his capacity, respecting the needs of others. The venture failed, and "Animal Farm" ended up being a dictatorship of pigs, who were the brightest, and most idle of the animals.

Orwell's mastery lies in his presentation of the horrors of totalitarian regimes, and his analysis of communism put to practice, through satire and simple story-telling. The structure of the novel is skillfully organized, and the careful reader may, for example, detect the causes of the unworkability of communism even from the first chapter. This is deduced from Orwell's description of the various animals as they enter the barn and take their seats to listen to the revolutionary preaching of Old Major, father of communism in Animal Farm. Each animal has different features and attitude; the pigs, for example, "settled down in the straw immediately in front of the platform", which is a hint on their future role, whereas Clover, the affectionate horse" made a sort of wall" with her foreleg to protect some ducklings.

So, it appears that the revolution was doomed from the beginning, even though it began in idealistic optimism as expressed by the motto "no animal must ever tyrannize over his own kind. Weak or strong, clever or simple, we are all brothers." "When the animals drive out Mr. Jones, they create their "Seven Commandments" which ensure equality and prosperity for all the animals. The pigs, however, being the natural leaders, managed to reverse the commandments, and through terror and propaganda establish the rule of an elite of pigs, under the leadership of Napoleon, the most revered and sinister pig.

"Animal Farm" successfully presents how the mechanism of propaganda and brainwashing works in totalitarian regimes, by showing how the pigs could make the other animals believe practically anything. Responsible for the propaganda was Squealer, a pig that "could turn black into white." Squealer managed to change the rule from "all animals are equal" to "all animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others." He managed to convince the other animals that it was for their sake that the pigs ate most of the apples and drank most of the milk, that leadership was "heavy responsibility" and therefore the animals should be thankful to Napoleon, that what they saw may have been something they "dreamed", and when everything else failed he would use the threat of "Jones returning" to silence the animals. In this simple but effective way, Orwell presents the tragedy and confusion of thought control to the extent that one seems better off simply believing that "Napoleon is always right".

Orwell's criticism of the role of the Church is also very effective. In Animal Farm, the Church is represented by Moses, a tame raven, who talks of "Sugarcandy Mountain", a happy country in the sky "where we poor animals shall rest forever from our labors". It is interesting to observe that when Old Major was first preaching revolutionary communism, Moses was sleeping in the barn, which satirizes the Church being caught asleep by communism. It is also important to note that the pig-dictators allowed and indirectly encouraged Moses; it seems that it suited the pigs to have the animals dreaming of a better life after death so that they wouldn't attempt to have a better life while still alive...

In "Animal Farm," Orwell describes how power turned the pigs from simple "comrades" to ruthless dictators who managed to walk on two legs, and carry whips. The story may be seen as an analysis of the Soviet regime, or as a warning against political power games of an absolute nature and totalitarianism in general. For this reason, the story ends with a hair-raising warning to all humankind: "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again: but already it was impossible to say which was which."
Free download George Orwell’s “Animal Farm" here:

"How It Really Is"


Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, "How Russia Might Win WW3"

Full screen recommended.
Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, "How Russia Might Win WW3"
Mar 26, 2022 "What we are seeing is a fiction, the bigger
 conflict is coming". Dr. Peter Vincent Pry breaks down
 his theories about what's actually going on in the Far East."
Comments here:
Freely download "Russia: EMP Threat: The Russian Federation’s Military 
Doctrine, Plans, and Capabilities for Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack", 
by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, here:
Related, contextually important:
You didn't think this would be easy, did you? Of course it's complicated...
So, you ask, why make the effort to understand what we can't possibly change?
If I'm facing a firing squad, and we all are, I want to at least know how and why.
How about you?

Friday, September 30, 2022

Must View! Canadian Prepper, "When the Internet Goes Down... Know This"

Canadian Prepper, Late 9/30/22:
"When the Internet Goes Down... Know This"
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God help us... God help us all.

"20 Ways To Prepare For The Upcoming Food Shortages"

Full screen recommended.
"20 Ways To Prepare For The Upcoming Food Shortages"
by Epic Economist

"At this point, we all know that food shortages are coming, and with each passing day, more industry executives are warning about upcoming price increases and supply chain hiccups that may keep grocery shelves empty this winter. Some of you may not remember, but in May, even the federal government said that "food shortages are going to be real," and some major humanitarian organizations are sounding the alarm about famines of biblical proportions and other disasters that are hitting our crops, and meat production capacity. The stage is set for a turbulent 2023 for our food supply chains. But we still have the opportunity to get ready before the chaos begins. That's why in today's video, we compiled several tips that may help you to prepare for the challenges ahead.

Whenever you go to the store to stock up on items you might need, instead of grabbing as many as you want and stripping bare grocery shelves, get two of the same product. One to consume in the short-term, and another one to go straight to your pantry. For instance, let’s say you need a peanut butter jar, then you buy two containers, eat the first, and put the second in storage. After the first one is over, you go to the store again and buy two more. In that way, you can start to build up your stockpile without spending your entire food budget all at once or even going into debt to afford the products that you need. It’s also important to only store products you’ll actually consume, otherwise, you’ll be wasting your money. And don’t forget to use the item that is getting closer to the expiration date first.

If growing your own food is something you don’t want or cannot do, another great option that will allow you to have a better sense of food security is buying locally. A large share of the food supplies we eat and consume on a daily basis comes from large corporations and a handful of farmers and ranchers with extensive operations. The problem is that if one single disruption hits any step of their processes, we might see some inventory holes at our local stores. And if those problems last for a few days or even weeks, we’ll be vulnerable to experiencing prolonged shortages. That’s why supporting local small farmers is something we all should do. Their crops are usually more diverse, they use fewer pesticides, and you’ll be able to get seasonal fresh food right from the source.

Having a reliable supply of gas, fuels, medicines, cleaning products, self-defense tools, and building supplies is also essential to get prepared. Although you might ask why you’ll need all of those things for food shortages, the truth is that during challenging times you can barter some of the supplies you stocked up for the food you may need later on, or even use some of those tools to provide someone a service that can be paid with something else you might want. Scarcity oftentimes leads people to panic buy, which may create shortages of other goods too. So make sure you have a reliable stockpile of other critical products as well.

The window of opportunity to make preparations for the imminent food shortages is rapidly closing. Now it is time to start planning and acting if we want to be able to weather the perfect storm of events that is forming as we speak. We documented in several videos many pieces of evidence that show that the situation is getting stedily worse. So stock up while you can, because things will get even crazier as we move towards the end of the year."
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Canadian Prepper, "Stock Up On Everything. Now"

Canadian Prepper 9/30/22:
"Stock Up On Everything. Now"
"ThIs is getting insane."
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Musical Interlude: Gnomusy, "Shadows in the Wood"

Gnomusy, "Shadows in the Wood"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“What makes this spiral galaxy so long? Measuring over 700,000 light years across from top to bottom, NGC 6872, also known as the Condor galaxy, is one of the most elongated barred spiral galaxies known.
The galaxy’s protracted shape likely results from its continuing collision with the smaller galaxy IC 4970, visible just above center. Of particular interest is NGC 6872′s spiral arm on the upper left, as pictured here, which exhibits an unusually high amount of blue star forming regions. The light we see today left these colliding giants before the days of the dinosaurs, about 300 million years ago. NGC 6872 is visible with a small telescope toward the constellation of the Peacock (Pavo).”

The Poet: Wendell Berry, “A Warning To My Readers”

“A Warning To My Readers”

“Do not think me gentle
because I speak in praise
of gentleness, or elegant
because I honor the grace
that keeps this world. I am
a man crude as any,
gross of speech, intolerant,
stubborn, angry, full
of fits and furies. That I
may have spoken well
at times, is not natural.
A wonder is what it is.”

- Wendell Berry

"Do You Believe..."

“Do you believe,’ said Candide, ‘that men have always massacred each other as they do today, that they have always been liars, cheats, traitors, ingrates, brigands, idiots, thieves, scoundrels, gluttons, drunkards, misers, envious, ambitious, bloody-minded, calumniators, debauchees, fanatics, hypocrites, and fools?”
“Do you believe,” said Martin, “that hawks have always eaten pigeons when they have found them?”
- Voltaire

"Can't You See..."

"Can't you see that the courage to risk, to dare, to toss that gold coin up in the air over and over again, win or lose, is what makes humans human? They are fragile, doomed creatures, blinder than worms yet braver than the gods."
- Jennifer Donnelly, "Stepsister"

"Global Financial Storm Of Epic Proportions" (Excerpt)

"Global Financial Storm Of Epic Proportions"
by Egon von Greyerz

Excerpt: "As the dark years are approaching, the world is now approaching survival mode. Admittedly, if you go to a high class restaurant in New York, London or Zurich, there are no signs of misery but instead of incredible affluence. What is happening to middle America or England has not yet reached Wall Street or the City of London where exquisite food is plenty and excellent wines are flowing. This is of course no different to the end of eras with major excesses and decadence. It was the same at the peak of the Roman Empire 2000 years ago or in 1929 just before the Dow crashed 90%.

Main Street is already in survival mode with cost of living increases of a magnitude that ordinary people can’t afford. Energy, fuel, food, mortgage rates, rents and most things have gone up by 10-20% or more in the last year. Everything has happened so quickly that people are in shock. But it is a fact that real MISERY has now hit ordinary people. As Charles Dickens wrote in David Copperfield:
"Annual income twenty pounds,
annual expenditure nineteen six,
result happiness. Annual income
twenty pounds, annual
expenditure twenty pound
ought and six, result misery."

For Main Street it is no longer a question of making ends meet but of economic survival.

The Fed and other so called “independent” central banks are doing all they can to exacerbate the crisis. The Fed’s official two tasks are stable inflation and full employment. Stable inflation the Fed has in latter years defined as 2%. How did they arrive at that? They probably don’t know themselves since there is nothing good about 2%. Because an annual inflation rate of 2% means that prices double every 36 years which is highly undesirable. Anyway, even with pumping up M1 Money supply by $19 trillion between 2006 and December 2021 and keeping interest rates at 0% they still don’t have a clue why inflation is going up. Many of us were laughing at Powell and Lagarde when they called the increase in inflation transitory! Whilst clueless central bank heads are transitory, current inflation certainly isn’t.
Hyperinflationary Rocket: It is absolutely incredible that the heads of the Fed and ECB, the world’s biggest central banks, didn’t have the basic knowledge to fathom that unlimited free money for over 10 years is like a matchstick to light the biggest inflationary rocket in history. Yes, it seemed to take a long time before the inflation rocket was set alight. The explanation is self-evident. There were different compartments in the rocket. Before the consumer prices were set alight, the inflation flame reached all the financial assets such as stocks, bonds and property.

Between 2009 and January 2021, the Nasdaq for example went up 16X, the S&P 7X and house prices went up 2X. But conveniently for the Fed, this Hyperinflation in asset prices doesn’t count as inflation. So the Fed could continue to fulfil its main purpose which is to make the rich richer. As the Fed was conceived by private bankers in Jekyll Island in 1910 for the main purpose of enriching the bankers and their friends, it is clear that this Elite group must be looked after first."
Global Debt $2.5 Quadrillion: With global debt, contingent liabilities and derivatives of around $2.5 quadrillion, there are a lot of assets/liabilities which need to implode before the world can show healthy and debt free growth again."
It Ain't Over Until The Fat Lady Sings: This is the perfect storm. But remember it has only just started and as I have stated in numerous articles and interviews, this won’t be over until the fat lady sings. When will she sing? Well, if this is the end of a very major cycle as I believe it could be, it might be a decade or longer before she sings. We must of course remember that nothing goes straight down and there will be violent corrections that initially will make investors euphoric. But most reactions will be short lived so buying the dips could be very dangerous.
We should first see hyperinflation taking hold properly and stock and property markets go down by at least 75% and possibly 95%. Bonds won’t stop going down until rates are 20%+. Many bonds will go to ZERO as borrowers default, including many sovereign states."
Full, most highly recommended, article is here:

Canadian Prepper, "Urgent: Another War is About to Start (And Its Far Worse)

Canadian Prepper, 9/30/22:
Part 1: 
Full screen recommended.
"Buckle Up: Only One Way This War Ends"
"I talk to a real nuclear weapons expert about the state of things."
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Part 2:
Full screen recommended.
  "Urgent: Another War is About to Start (And Its Far Worse)
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Full screen recommended.
Related, Human nature:
"One source claims that 14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace."

Gregory Mannarino, "It's Coming Apart: The Global Economy Is Collapsing And Currencies Are Dying"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/30/22:
"It's Coming Apart: The Global Economy 
Is Collapsing And Currencies Are Dying"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Elizabeth City, North Carolina, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Massive Price Increases At Walmart! This Is Ridiculous! Not Good!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 9/30/22:
"Massive Price Increases At Walmart! 
This Is Ridiculous! Not Good!"
"In today's vlog we are at Walmart, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
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"The Downturn Has Finally Happened"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 9/30/22:
"The Downturn Has Finally Happened"
"Real Estate has finally turned. Core inflation is sky high. 
Companies are feeling the supply chain impact. The world is bracing for impact."
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Gregory Mannarino, "Mannarino Melts Down! We Are In A Full Blown Currency Crisis!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/30/22:
"Mannarino Melts Down! 
We Are In A Full Blown Currency Crisis!"
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Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "Pulling Punches"

"Pulling Punches"
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Youghal, Ireland - "Yesterday, we opined that the Fed wouldn’t go ‘far enough’ in its fight against inflation. Today, we clue you in: the fight is rigged. The Fed will take a dive. Why? Because inflation is not a natural phenomenon. Instead, it’s federal policy. The feds wanted more money. Neither the taxpayers nor the credit markets were willing to provide it. The result was a policy – inflation. The Fed ‘printed’ up the necessary funds. It was spent. The real costs were pushed into the future. And this year, the future showed up.

Over the last 12 months, the interest on federal debt rose above $700 billion per year. As the Fed raises interest rates, the number will soon go over the cost of Social Security and Pentagon spending – combined. Meanwhile, inflation reached 40-year highs. What to do? There are only two choices. Inflate more. Or crash the economy and default on it.

Pressure Mounting: The Fed is headed towards default, with pressure to change course already mounting in the mainstream presses. The LA Times: "Painful signs emerge that Fed is moving too far, too fast with aggressive rate increases. The present not so much that current and planned moves will fail eventually to quell inflation. It is that they collectively go too far and drive the world economy into an unnecessarily harsh contraction."

And here’s MarketWatch: "‘Financial markets are throwing in the towel’: Recession fears escalate as Fed slams brakes on the economy. The likelihood of sharply higher interest rates has tilted the odds toward another recession within a year, economists say. Yet some still hold out hope the U.S. can muddle through with a period of slow growth instead of outright decline.

In a move widely expected by financial markets, the Federal Reserve orchestrated another jumbo-size hike in U.S. interest rates last week. What was unexpected was the central bank’s aggressive forecast for even higher rates in the year ahead. The surprise forecast triggered a major decline in the stock market as the realization sank in that the Fed is determined to squelch the highest U.S. inflation in 40 years - no matter the cost."

Throw in the towel? When stocks are only just tipping into bear market territory? There will be plenty of towels to throw in later. In the meantime, we’ve got a long way to go. Then, the Fed will ‘pivot’ like a ballerina. The media will celebrate the great man; another ‘Tall Paul’ Volcker, they will say. The markets will soar on the good news. But that is not for now. Not yet. That will require an emergency; Jay Powell has not caused one… yet.

A Most Remarkable Period: In this farce, our hero – Jerome Powell – must suffer… he must overcome great challenges… he must persevere against evil and overwhelming odds. Only then, he can announce his great victory over inflation… and go back to inflating the economy.

In the most remarkable period in US financial history, America’s government debt went from just $23 trillion in 2020 to nearly $31 trillion today. That additional $8 trillion of spending should have stimulated the pants off of the economy. Instead, it was squandered on wars and stimmies… and now is recalled – like a wine-stained bill from a fancy bordello – only as debt. The Fed partied hard. We measured it yesterday as about $50 trillion in asset prices above ‘normal’ and $47 trillion in excess debt (above the traditional 180% of GDP level).

An alert Dear Reader comments: "$50 trillion in surplus wealth. $47 trillion in surplus debt. That those two numbers are almost equal can’t be a coincidence. What they obviously imply: Over the past 4 decades, there’s been little REAL wealth creation in the US. It’s almost all just debt." Now, getting back to normal means erasing both of them.

The Fed’s Fake Coin: And here lies the dramatic tension at the heart of our tale. The Fed cannot launder out the stains of debt without also washing away the credit. The two are linked together – asset and liability – both sides of the Fed’s fake coin.

The Fed flooded the economy with $8 trillion in fake money, and trillions more in fake credit offered at fake interest rates. All of this ‘money’ created fake wealth… in stocks, bonds, and real estate. But it also created excess debt of almost the same amount. Now, the owners of that wealth – not by coincidence either! – just happen to be the same people who decide on federal policies. They may be desperate to rid themselves of the debt – but not the wealth. Fake or not, they like it.

Can they ditch the debt and keep the wealth? How will that work out? It is not very promising. As the Fed raises rates, asset prices come down. A house might have sold for $400,000 to a person with a 3% mortgage. Now, with mortgage rates approaching 7%, how much is it worth? $300,000? $200,000?

As the collateral comes down, so does the value of the money lent against it. Existing debt – bonds, notes, mortgage debt… even US government debt – all go down in value. Who’s going to want a 2020-vintage 10-year US T-bond bearing a 1% coupon… when he can buy a new one earning 4%? Who’s going to lend to Wall Street when he can get 3% in an FDIC-protected savings account? We don’t know. But we’re sure there’s an empty congressional seat waiting for him somewhere.

Joel’s Note: Speaking of home loans, the national average for a 30-year mortgage just topped 7% for the first time since 2000. Moreover, it was also the fastest 1% increase in history, taking place in less than one month. (It only topped 6% two weeks ago…) What does this mean for the average American “home loaner?” And what does it portend for that great ballast of American, middle class family wealth?

According to data compiled by the Atlanta Fed, the median American family now needs to spend more than half their income to service payments on the median-priced American home. That’s the highest percentage level in over 15 years and almost double what it was just 12 months ago. If that looks like the biggest mortgage rate shock in over 40 years… that’s because it is. (H/T to @NewsLambert at FortuneMagazine for this worrying chart)…
Meanwhile, yesterday’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed an “unexpected” (by “experts”) drop in home prices month-over-month. The 20-City Composite index fell 0.44% on the month, far below the expected 0.20% increase. It was the first sequential drop in home prices tracked by Case-Shiller in more than a decade.

It makes one wonder how people can afford to get by, what with rising rates, falling home prices, 40yr high inflation and plummeting stock markets…In completely unrelated news, total credit card debt is up more than 20% over the past year. Hmm…"