"The Limits of US and Israeli Air Power"
by Larry C. Johnson
"The West, including Israel, refuses to learn from history with regards to the use of air power to achieve regime change. The decision of Israel and the United States to attack Iran on February 28 and force a change of regime is a colossal failure. The murder of the Ayatollah Khamenei, along with the Minister of Defense and the head of the IRGC, and the killing of 165 school girls aged 6 to 12, instead has galvanized the Iranian public to unite around the Islamic Republic and eliminated the chance that there will be a negotiated settlement to the war on terms acceptable to the West. Iran refuses to surrender to the US and Israel and is fully committed to removing the US from the Persian Gulf region and devastating Israel.
Donald Trump, at the urging of his Zionist cheerleaders, broke his promise to his base to not start an unnecessary war and chose instead to start a war that is bleeding US offensive capabilities. Trump, through ignorance or hubris, bet his presidency on the belief that a combination of air and naval power could effect regime change. But history shows that air power alone has never toppled a determined regime. Let’s look at seven examples where the US or Israel tried and failed to achieve military victory by relying on air strikes.
IRAQ 2003: In March 2003 the United States launched one of the most intense air campaigns in history. Over the first three weeks, coalition aircraft flew more than 20,000 sorties and dropped more than 29,000 munitions. “Shock and Awe” was designed to paralyze Saddam Hussein’s regime from the air, break its will to fight, and trigger internal collapse. Yet air power alone did not topple Saddam. Regime change required a rapid ground invasion by US.and British forces that reached Baghdad in just 21 days. George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” speech on May 1, 2003, aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln declared the end of “major combat operations” in Iraq, just six weeks after the US-led invasion, which began on March 20, 2003. Despite this optimistic proclamation, the broader conflict - encompassing insurgency, sectarian violence, occupation, and counter-insurgency efforts - continued for more than eight years afterward.
ISRAEL 2023 to Present:Israel possesses one of the world’s most advanced militaries: unmatched air superiority, precision-guided munitions, real-time intelligence from drones and satellites, layered missile defenses, elite special forces, and the unconditional backing of the United States. Hamas, by contrast, is a non-state terrorist organization with no air force, no navy, no tanks, and a GDP per capita roughly 1/50th of Israel’s. On paper, the outcome of any conventional war should be swift and total. Yet more than two years after the October 7, 2023 attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostages, Hamas remains a functioning military and political force in Gaza.
Afghanistan 2001 to 2021: The United States entered Afghanistan in October 2001 with total air dominance, the world’s most advanced special forces, precision-guided weapons, NATO allies, and a clear initial mission: destroy al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime that had sheltered it. By December 2001 the Taliban had been routed from power. Twenty years later, in August 2021, the same Taliban rolled back into Kabul in pickup trucks as the US-backed government collapsed in days.
Yemen — Operation Rough Rider March 2025: The US air and naval campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen — began on March 15, 2025, and officially ended on May 6, 2025. Over 53 days the United States fired more than 1,000 strikes, expended over $1 billion in munitions, deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups, and lost several MQ-9 drones and other assets. The stated objective was clear: restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden by stopping Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Yet more than ten months later, in March 2026, the Red Sea remains a high-risk zone. Major shipping companies continue to reroute around Africa, insurance premiums remain elevated, and occasional Houthi attacks or credible threats persist. The United States, with unmatched naval power and precision strike capability, did not achieve its core goal.
In this list of failures we should also include the following:
In Kosovo (1999), 78 days of NATO bombing forced Serbia to withdraw from Kosovo but did not remove Slobodan Milošević from power; he fell later due to internal politics.
In Libya (2011), seven months of NATO air strikes helped rebels overthrow Gaddafi only because ground rebel forces advanced on Tripoli.
North Vietnam endured years of Rolling Thunder and Linebacker bombing without regime change.
With the exception of North Vietnam, Iran possesses more military capability than any of the other cases cited above. When this war is over -- with Iran still intact - the US will have depleted critical military supplies that will not be replaced for years and Israel’s economic and military infrastructure will be decimated. Why?
First, the US started a war without an industrial base that could ramp up production of air defense and attack missiles that are being rapidly depleted. Compounding the production challenge is the lack of critical rare earth minerals needed to produce weapons and combat aircraft… China controls those and has refused to export them to the US.
Second, the US and Israel failed to accurately assess Iran’s ability to deploy and launch thousands of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles. Although Israeli censors are working feverishly to hide the damage being done - and I guarantee you that similar hits are pummeling Haifa and Israeli military and intelligence installations across Israel - the truth is leaking out."
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