by Michael Snyder
"If the war with Iran persists for an extended period of time, a lot of people could literally starve. Approximately half of all global food production is dependent on the use of fertilizer. Without fertilizer, crop yields would drop precipitously and there wouldn’t be anywhere near enough food for everyone. Even now, hundreds of millions of people are going to bed hungry every night, and there are severe food shortages in quite a few African nations. This is a trend that I have been closely monitoring for quite some time. We are at a very serious tipping point, and approximately one-fourth of all globally traded nitrogen fertilizer normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz. If we can’t get that fertilizer into the hands of those that need it, we are going to have a major crisis on our hands.
At this moment, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been paralyzed…At least 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to Reuters estimates based on ship-tracking data from the MarineTraffic platform. Hundreds of other vessels remained outside Hormuz unable to reach ports, shipping data showed. The waterway is a key artery for around a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supply.
Hardly anything is getting through, and it is likely to remain that way for quite a while, because the Iranians have already damaged a significant number of commercial vessels…
This is something that is not getting nearly enough attention from the mainstream media. The latest vessel that was hit by Iran was a Malta-flagged container ship known as the Safeen Prestige…"A container ship was struck by a projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz north of Oman, maritime security agencies said. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), an agency linked to the U.K. military that monitors commercial shipping, said the vessel was sailing eastbound when it was hit by an unknown projectile just above the water line. The strike caused a fire in the ship’s engine room, UKMTO said, adding that no environmental impact had been reported. Maritime security agency Vanguard Tech identified the vessel as the Malta-flagged container ship Safeen Prestige."
We have literally never seen anything like this before. For now, the 2nd largest shipping company in the world has suspended all cargo bookings for the region…
Obviously the price of oil has gone up, and I believe that it will go even higher. But what this is going to mean for global food production could be of even greater importance.
Farmers all over the western hemisphere are getting ready to plant, and it is being reported that “close to one-quarter of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer” normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz…"Forbes’ Robert Rapier reported that “globally, about 180 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers are consumed each year (measured in nutrient terms). Of that, roughly 55–60 million metric tons of urea move through international seaborne trade annually. The Middle East accounts for approximately 40–50% of that traded volume. “And nearly all of those exports must transit the Strait of Hormuz,” Rapier reported. “In other words, close to one-quarter of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer—and a meaningful share of total global nitrogen production - moves through that single maritime chokepoint that is now threatened by war.”
Fertilizer prices were already exceptionally high even before this war erupted. Now there is going to be a scramble for whatever supplies are available, and prices are going to go even higher. One industry insider says that the timing of this war “literally could not be worse”…"The timing of the conflict “literally could not be worse” for the industry, Josh Linville, vice president for fertilizers at brokerage StoneX Group, said by email. “There is never a good time for war, but this couldn’t be much worse.”
I honestly don’t know how this is going to be fixed. If farmers don’t get enough fertilizer, global food production could decline substantially in 2026…"Roughly half of global food production depends on fertilizers. Without them, crop yields would fall sharply, placing the delicate balance of global food security at risk. Their industrial production rests largely on the Haber–Bosch process, devised by Fritz Haber and subsequently industrialized by Carl Bosch, which combines nitrogen drawn from the air with hydrogen (today sourced mainly from natural gas) to synthesize ammonia."
Ammonia is the indispensable feedstock for a wide range of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea, the most widely used chemical fertilizer in the world. According to an analysis by Rabobank, a significant share of the urea passing through the Strait of Hormuz comes from Qatar and Iran, accounting for an estimated 5 million tonnes annually, while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia contribute a further 2 million tons each year.
We really are in unprecedented territory. The farmers that are able to get their hands on sufficient supplies of fertilizer certainly are going to pay a lot more for it, because prices are already skyrocketing…"Prices for granular urea in Egypt have surged by $60 a metric ton since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and buyers are already looking for other suppliers in North Africa and Southeast Asia, Bloomberg Green Markets reported.
Meanwhile in New Orleans, the price of March barges for urea - the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer and one crucial to corn fields - were $60 to $80 higher on Monday compared with Friday prices, and there is “potentially hundreds of dollars per ton increases in the coming days,” said Taylor Eastman, a fertilizer trader at Andersons Inc."
Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is also driving up natural gas prices in Europe and elsewhere…"A prolonged surge in natural gas prices triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East risks denting European growth and hitting some Asian economies hard, analysts have warned. Global gas prices have soared this week amid fears of a lengthy disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz - a key shipping route running between Oman and Iran that handles about one-fifth of global LNG trade - as the Iran conflict escalates. Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures, Europe’s benchmark gas contract, rose 35% on Tuesday to more than 60 euros ($69.64) per megawatt-hour. On the week, prices are around 76% higher."
Qatar is normally one of the largest producers in the region. But now they have shut down production for at least a month and they have declared force majeure on shipments of liquified natural gas…"QatarEnergy just declared Force Majeure. Three words that mean: we cannot deliver, and legally, we do not have to. This is no longer a supply disruption. This is a contract collapse. Force Majeure is not a precaution. It is a formal legal declaration that an unforeseeable event beyond QatarEnergy’s control has made fulfillment impossible. Every affected buyer just had their contract voided. The gas they were counting on is gone, and they have no legal recourse to get it back."
82% of Qatar’s LNG goes to Asia. China relies on Qatar for 30% of its LNG imports. India 42 to 52%. South Korea 14 to 19%. Taiwan 25%. Japan is already rationing to spot markets. Asian benchmark prices jumped 39% the day production stopped. We have never seen a supply shock of this magnitude.
If this war keeps going for an extended period of time, this is just the beginning. Here in the western world, food prices are likely to keep rising at a brisk pace. But in impoverished nations around the globe, things will be far worse. If this war does not end soon, large numbers of people could end up dead as a result of the horrifying famine that is now looming."
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