So, we rise from the rubble...
Friday, November 6, 2020
"America’s Succession Battle Continues"
"America’s Succession Battle Continues"
By Bill Bonner
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "What a jolly week! The whole world has been on the edge of its chair. Here, on the frontier of civilization in Northwest Argentina, our neighbor reported: “I stayed up until 1:30 a.m. to see who your next president will be.” As of this morning, we still don’t know for sure who will get to boss us around over the next four years. But the spectacle has been entertaining…
Each country… each era… needs its unifying myths and rituals. Pharaoh was a god. Louis XIV exercised the “divine right” given to him by God Himself. And now, when all the votes are finally counted, recounted, hidden under the table, and miscounted… either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be crowned by the voters.
Succession Battle: Succession has always been a dangerous time. Even in the time of Pharaoh and divinely appointed kings, being next in line was no sure thing. Often, the obvious successor was judged incapable or unreliable by the insiders. So they looked around for a replacement. Then, too, a cousin or an uncle might present himself – backed by his own army – claiming he was promised the crown. Often, the power struggle was bloody.
Edward the Confessor, King of England, but who lived most of his life in Normandy, France, died in 1066 without an heir. Three claimants to the English crown came forward. Harold, King of Norway, said he was the rightful ruler because of a deal made between his father and King Harthacnut of England. William, Duke of Normandy, meanwhile, claimed that Edward had promised him the crown. But Harold Godwinson, Earl of Essex, probably the most logical claimant, was quickly proclaimed king and crowned by the Archbishop of York.
The Norwegians invaded, and were beaten by the newly crowned King of England. Days later, William the Bastard, Duke of Normandy, landed with a force of knights drawn from Normandy, Flanders, and Brittany. The rest, as they say, is history – including the massacre of a substantial part of the English population, along with the expropriation of vast estates by the Norman warriors, some of which remain with their descendants to this day.
Biggest Disappointment: But investors today do not seem much concerned about a succession battle. A hung election? A civil war? Bankruptcy and hyperinflation? COVID-19 on the rampage? What? Me, worry? No matter what happens, investors seem to think “the system” will continue. By Thursday’s close, the Dow had gone up almost 2,000 points this week alone.
That, of course, is the biggest disappointment to us. There is now little chance of a conservative revival. And almost no chance that the spend, spend, spend… borrow, borrow, borrow… print, print, print tendencies of both parties will face any real opposition. Even if he loses, Donald Trump proved that he has the support of about a third of the voters. And even though many Republican politicians are distancing themselves from his election fraud charges, it is likely that the Republican Party is still the Party of The Donald…
What this means is that there will be no challenge to the prevailing jackassery, neither from the Right nor the Left, Republicans nor Democrats. Neither will there be any challenge to the foreign wars… nor to the domestic spend-a-thon or the Fed print-a-thon that support them. The Federal Reserve is “printing” about $11 billion per day… Come Hell or high water, Biden or Trump, Blue or Red… that will continue.
Sure, the two parties will argue over the terms of their socialized medical system. Yes, they will get into scrapes about Supreme Court appointees, the Second Amendment, transgender rights, DEA (diversity, equality, accessibility), and reparations… But it won’t be guns… bathrooms… bribes… or giveaways that wreck the nation. Nope. It will be the old-fashioned, tried-and-true society-wrecker – spending more than you can afford and making it up by printing fake money.
Long-Term Trends: All we can do is try to protect ourselves. The idea of the Trade of the Decade is that trends take time, and you only really make money (or protect your wealth) when you are on the right side of them.
We have many colleagues who like to trade options, for example. The nice thing about them is that you can make fairly small bets, with limited downside. Occasionally, you will hit the jackpot. It can be exciting and engaging… like all forms of gambling. But, in our opinion, it’s not a way to make a fortune, build up your retirement savings, or protect your wealth. It’s only by making big, bold, long-term investments, and sticking with them, that you can come out seriously ahead. There are three reasons for this…
First, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is close to correct. It tells us that it is very hard to “beat the market.” You never know which direction Mr. Market is going. And you never know which stocks (or other investments) will be favored by future developments. Further to the point, we started our publishing business more than 40 years ago. We’ve worked at it 10 to 12 hours per day… ever since 1979. And yet, can we tell if business is going to be better or worse next year? We cannot. Every year is a surprise. How, then, would an outsider have any idea?
Here and Now: Second, we are all victims of the here and now. One of the surprising conclusions of market research is that most investors do not do as well as “most investors” are supposed to. The stock market may double, but the typical amateur investor is likely to get only half of that. Why? Because he reads the paper… watches Jim Cramer on TV… or follows the advice of his stockbroker. He is in the here and now, where everybody tells him to act… to buy whatever is hot now… or he will “miss the boat.”
Alas, whatever is “hot” is usually already overpriced. The insiders get in early. Experienced, serious researchers buy in soon after. By the time the amateur investor gets wind of it, it is usually too late. He is not actually investing in a business at all; he is simply buying an existing investment from a shrewder investor who is selling out! And then, even if it is a good investment, the sirens bid him move on – to the next “hot” investment – at the worst possible moment.
(This “here and now” phenomenon seems to take more time now that Robinhooders are in the markets. They tend to buy “momentum” stocks… including some of the worst companies on Wall Street. Stocks that should have already crashed are still going up. But we assume that, eventually, they will all lose a lot of money.)
Patience: Third… Markets, sectors, companies – none of them turn on a dime. The best investments are not flashes in the pan. They are companies that grow, month after month… compounding your money over many years. Companies take decades to perfect their products and their marketing strategies. It takes decades, too, for management and employees to learn the particular skills necessary to make them work.
Again, drawing on our own experience, we worked for 25 years before ever making a real, accrued, after-tax profit. But relatively few investors have the patience to wait that long. The financial press and Wall Street always encourage you to act… to get out of slow-moving investments… and take advantage of the latest fads and fashions.
Top Performers: One of our favorite studies of investor behavior came from the Fidelity Mutual Funds group. The company wondered which of its customers had made the most money. They separated them by age, sex, and account size. But what they discovered was that the best performers had none of those things in common. Instead, the distinctive feature common to the best performers was that they all lacked, shall we say, “animal spirits.”
That is, they were all dead. But their accounts had not yet been closed – and often remained open for decades. Resting among the shades, they were never tempted by TV. No brokers called them with hot tips. No gossip reached them. They traded neither in nor out. They sought neither to improve their returns nor to impress their neighbors. They paid no commissions. They did nothing… and their accounts rose.
Trade of the Decade: Our Trade of the Decade is intended to imitate a deathly state… without actually dying. We take a guess about what we think may go up… and what may go down. We make our trade. And we forget about it for 10 years. What do we buy? What do we sell? And how have our “Trades of the Decade” worked out over the last two decades? We’ll take up these questions next week…
But we’re setting aside Monday to pay homage to Donald J. Trump. Stay tuned…"
"Here's Our Historical Analogy Menu: Rome, the USSR or Revolutionary France"
"Here's Our Historical Analogy Menu:
Rome, the USSR or Revolutionary France"
by Charles Hugh Smith
"There's a definite end of days feeling to the euphoria that the world didn't end on November 3. And what better way to celebrate the victory of what passes for normalcy with a manic stock market rally? It's as if everyone knows there is no returning to the good old days of a well-oiled Imperial machine chewing through any and all obstacles, and this realization is so frightening that the need to pretend everything is fine, just fine, overwhelms the last remaining ties to reality.
And since there's a brief intermission between gladiator battles while the Coliseum attendants remove the fallen heroes from the last entertainment, let's play the historical analogy game: which collapse will America track most closely? Rome circa 475 AD, the USSR circa 1989, or Revolutionary France circa 1789?
I'm tempted to include China's Song Dynasty circa 1276 AD, but the analog of the Mongol invasion isn't a likely fit. The Khmer Empire circa 1350-1430 AD and the Mayan Civilization in the 9th century might be excellent analogies but not enough is known about these complex declines to make an analogy more than guesswork.
Rome, the USSR and Revolutionary France are all compelling analogies due to the hubristic cluelessness of their fractured elites as the pretensions of stability collapsed around them. Even though Nero didn't actually fiddle while Rome burned and Marie Antoinette didn't gush "Let them eat brioche" when notified that the peasants had no bread (or more accurately, could no longer afford it), these myths are handy encapsulations of the disconnect from reality that infested the elites in the last years before the deluge of non-linear chaos overwhelmed the regimes.
While historians gather evidence of tipping points such as pandemics, ecological damage, invasions, droughts, inflation, etc., the core dynamic is ultimately the loss of social cohesion within the ruling elites and in the social order at large.
As a generality, the permanence of the status quo is taken for granted by elites, who then feel free to squabble amongst themselves over the spoils of wealth and power. Distracted by their own infighting, the elites are blind to the erosion of the foundations of their power. As coherence in the elites unravels, the ties uniting the elites with the masses unravel as well. One camp within the elites recognizes the danger and seeks reforms, but the reforms are too little, too late, and in any event, the elites who cling most ardently to the past stability fight the reform movement to a standstill.
As social cohesion unravels, systems that once seemed immutable (i.e. linear) suddenly display non-linear dynamics in which modest changes that would have made little difference in the past now unleash regime-shattering disorder.
So take your pick, America: what's the closest analogy? A sclerotic Politburo of elders living in the past, an elite fiddling while the nation disintegrates, or an elite so out of touch with reality that it claims inflation is zero while the populace can no longer afford bread?
They all lead to the same destination:"
"With or Without"
"With or Without"
by Jim Kunstler
"The matrix of interests, parties, and people styling themselves as The Resistance, who tried unsuccessfully to cough up Donald Trump like a hairball for four years, may finally succeed by harvesting the magical crop of mail-in ballots delivered by unicorns in the gathering darkness this post-election week of mathematical wonders.
America walked wide-eyed into this signal institutional failure, the one that lowers us to the level of places in the world where the loincloth is a business suit and the only instrument of persuasion is a machete. The Attorney General, Mr. Barr, warned the country months ago in so many words that mail-in voting would invite massive fraud, and so it has gone, but exactly as predicted, in plain sight, shamelessly.
The Resistance dared to work this operation because there were no consequences to their previous seditions and felonies. Nobody ever answered for the many crimes of RussiaGate (and possibly never will). The lying slattern Christine Blasey Ford slunk back to her cushy life in California with a big GoFundMe bundle after defaming Judge Kavanaugh. Eric Ciaramella and his UkraineGate accomplices, IC Inspector General Michael Atkinson and Col. Alexander Vindman, never even faced an inquiry over their janky scheme. Judge Emmet Sullivan still refuses to follow the DC Circuit order to close the General Flynn case. Rep. Adam Schiff never paid any price for knowingly lying his ass off, nor did The Washington Post, The New York Times, CNN, and MSNBC. Twitter founder Jack Dorsey and Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg are allowed to suppress the news and deform the public conversation because they’re more important than the rest of us, and they know better, too.
No consequences for these actors in a rough and dirty game, but great consequences for the USA - a now lethal loss of faith in the essential fairness of American life and the institutions that were created to insure it. Shame on us for letting it get this far.
Mr. Trump is a fighter, and some kind of battle will go on from here, but he doesn’t appear to have much help while the ballot mills still grind away his leads in several swing states. The whole wicked business is pretty sure to end up in the US Supreme Court, one way or another, and maybe that’s where some line can finally be drawn against the brazen bad faith that played out in the election, even as the forces of Lawfare go to work in the statehouses, attempting to engineer electoral college slates. They’ll have the assistance of state secretaries-of-state and state attorneys general elected with funding from various George Soros activist groups. I doubt The Resistance wants this thing to end up in House of Representatives, because the peculiar math involved in that remedy could hand Mr. Trump the win there.
Sometime after this weekend, the news media will start a drum-banging campaign to convince the nation that the charismatic Joe Biden is president-elect, no matter how inconclusive the outcome actually is or how many procedural and judicial hoops it has to pass through before reaching a definitive conclusion. What if, during this murky period of litigation, the story of the Biden family’s exploits in global influence-peddling somehow re-enters the public arena, despite the best efforts of the news and social media to bury it? What if, during this period, Joe Biden himself is named by federal attorneys as a “target” in the already-opened investigation of his son Hunter’s, and brother James’s, overseas money-laundering op? It would be hard to keep that out of the news. What if the issue comes up of Joe Biden being a national security risk because of that grifting? Would he be allowed anywhere near the White House?
By the way, I’m not referring just to China and the deals that Hunter was chasing in 2017 when Joe Biden was out-of-office, but also of Ukraine in 2014, during and after the “color revolution” arranged by John Kerry’s State Department with help from George Soros’s Atlantic Council, when Veep Joe Biden was the official “point man” for US policy there and Hunter was installed on the Burisma board of directors for a cool $85,000-a-month, an arrangement that ran for years and netted him millions. The reason the investigation was opened in the first place was because there is hard evidence of a Biden family money-laundering trail through the Baltic States and Cyprus. And there is a lot of hard evidence of how all this worked on Hunter’s laptop. And there are the two interviews that erstwhile Biden business partner Tony Bobulinski did with the FBI only a couple of weeks ago. Do you suppose that all of that is just going to the dead-letter office? I wouldn’t.
Couple more things. First, what do you get with Joe Biden and the Democratic Party running the US government? Official suppression of free speech and official management of the news? Official cancel culture? Official race hustling and gender identity struggle sessions in the federal agencies? Campaigns against “whiteness?” Endless lockdowns and a new round of global misadventures in “nation building?”
Then there is the question Joe Biden’s physical and mental ability to serve in office. Even the Democrats understand that he’ll be shoved aside probably early in his term under the 25th amendment (or perhaps with a simple resignation, if he doesn’t want to put the country through another wringer). They knew that all along, you realize. Leaving Kamala Harris in the oval office, a candidate so visibly unpopular that she dropped out of the primaries before the Iowa caucuses.
One other thing: whoever occupies that office beginning in 2021 is going to face an overwhelming economic crisis. Oil production, which stood just under 13 million barrels-a-day at its peak November, 2019, is down over 2 million barrels a day now, and will be sinking to about 7 million barrels-a-day in 2021, which is far short of what we use. Shale oil is a bust. It costs too much to get out of the ground and the companies that put their mojo into shale can’t make any money at it, and can’t pay off their loans, and won’t get new loans to continue operations. So, the whole industry is going to shit. Oil is what has supported the US economy for a hundred years, and it’s over. Our attempt to compensate for that quandary by borrowing more and more money at every level is also drawing to a close. It will break the bond markets, the dollar, and the banks. This is the essence of the long emergency and we’re entering the heart of the storm now.
It will require a pretty thorough rearrangement of life in our country, mainly in downscaling everything we do and re-localizing productive activity as much as possible. This has absolutely nothing to do with race-and-gender issues or any of the other ideological horse-shit that has preoccupied the Left for more than a decade. They will never wrap their minds around it. They will only respond by creating more unnecessary mischief here and probably overseas in their panicked desperation. A demoralized American people will finally see the mind-f**ing they’ve been subjected to and will rise to save themselves from the ground up, with or without their government."
Thursday, November 5, 2020
Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 11/06/2020"
"Weekly News Wrap-Up 11/06/2020"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"I am hearing a lot of folks saying it looks like Donald Trump has lost. Trump has already won. President Trump said in a press conference on Thursday that there is “lots of litigation coming” and also said, “We will win easily.”
This massive voter and election fraud revolves around the tens of millions of ballots that were sent out all over the country with zero controls or any way whatsoever to verify their legitimacy. Mickey Mouse can vote in this election, and probably has a hundred times over. In Michigan alone, more than 138,000 ballots, all for Joe Biden, were dropped off in the middle of the night. Trump says fraud on this scale has never been seen before in the history of the United States. The fraud is so big it cannot be covered up and will be revealed, and when it is, Trump will be declared the winner.
There was a red wave so huge that it defeated the massive voter fraud operation, and the Dems had to stop the count on Election Night to figure out how they can cheat Joe Biden in the rest of the way. I repeat, it’s not going to work. Trump will get a second term, and everyone needs to keep their faith and not fall for the ongoing psyop by big media, big tech and big money."
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about
biggest election fraud in history and how it will be defeated.
"Stock Market Meltup; Uncertainly Ahead; 2020 Crisis; Federal Reserve Magic Tricks"
Jeremiah Babe,
"Stock Market Meltup; Uncertainly Ahead;
2020 Crisis; Federal Reserve Magic Tricks"
"Americas Economy Is Doomed: $27 Trillion National Debt Condemned US Growth For Decades"
"Americas Economy Is Doomed: $27 Trillion National Debt
Condemned US Growth For Decades"
by Epic Economist
"America's economic future is doomed: the alarming labor market crisis and the enormous national debt will compromise the U.S. economic progress for decades. Experts are signaling the effects of the current economic collapse will be seen until 2050 due to reckless monetary policies that have condemned our economy to eternal debt. While investors say despite who takes the lead of our nation, more easy money will have to be unleashed in the markets to alleviate the damages experienced this year, portraying the American never-ending cycle of debt creation. In this video, we gathered the latest data which shows that many aggravating determinants are still unfolding and this crisis is far from over.
2020 has been a decaying year for the U.S. economy and any prospects of ending it on good terms have been smashed, and it’s hard to foresee whether the economy will be able to gain any traction soon. For that reason, Moody's Analytics and CNN Business developed the Back-to-Normal Index (BNI), which found the economy is operating 20% below where it was when the crisis burst - a very long way from normal levels.
Their analysis linked confirmed infection rates with unemployment rates across states, and an increase in registered cases lead to fewer jobs and higher unemployment one month later. Now that the cold season has been limiting consumer spending, and more lockdown restrictions were issued, this will impact business owners ability to stay in business, which will then, translate into more bankruptcies, business closures, and another surge in unemployment rates.
Another round of lay-offs will put the labor market in a very critical position, fueling a job crisis that will only grow as the economic outlook gets tougher, which means it may linger for years. Economists predicted the US economy would add 600,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate was expected to drop to 7.7%. However, when new data was released last week, it crushed all expectations, showing private employers added only 365,000 jobs in October. Meanwhile, the escalating number of workers that have exhausted their state benefits and rolled onto alternative government programs emphasizes that there's no escape for the economy other than the issuance of more federal aid.
While the administration and Congress fail to come to terms on providing more help to those who were hit the hardest by this downturn, the economic deterioration continues to expand. At this point, there's no other alternative to lessen the damages experienced this year than the agreement on a legislation to provide substantial additional fiscal support, including more aid to the unemployed, small businesses, the airlines, state and local governments and a long list of others. Without these additional funds, the already fragile recovery threatens to come undone. Until then, much could wrong, driving the economy off the proverbial rails.
The constant need for further federal assistance describes how the current monetary policies have trapped the U.S. economy in a never-ending cycle of debt. In order to save the economy, the Federal Reserve has to print more and more money to keep the markets heated and prevent a social calamity. However, the unprecedented amount of unfounded cash injected in the markets has not only enabled investors greedy behavior since they know they will always be saved by the central bank, as it also exacerbated the level of national debt.
Whoever takes the lead of our nation will not be able to avoid a policy of growing debt, but will likely encourage it even further. And America is far from alone in this downward journey, which means several other global superpowers are also drowning in debt, so the foundations for the next great global financial and economic crisis have been already laid out and this is only the first stage of the crisis. Experts say that by 2050, the U.S. public debt will be equivalent to 195 percent of its GDP
The continuous debt enhancement will lead to permanent budget deficits, gradually leading the United States into a very dangerous territory. That's why many are warning about the next Global Financial Reset, since there’s a need to shift to a new, possibly digital monetary regime, with China as a front-runner, issuing the digital yuan, and the Fed announcing plans to release digital dollars. If global leaders fail to handle their nation's mounting debt, default could drastically limit the ability of governments to address urgent concerns and that would lead to a global economic collapse."
"A Look to the Heavens"
“What makes this spiral galaxy so long? Measuring over 700,000 light years across from top to bottom, NGC 6872, also known as the Condor galaxy, is one of the most elongated barred spiral galaxies known. 
The galaxy's protracted shape likely results from its continuing collision with the smaller galaxy IC 4970, visible just above center. Of particular interest is NGC 6872's spiral arm on the upper left, as pictured here, which exhibits an unusually high amount of blue star forming regions. The light we see today left these colliding giants before the days of the dinosaurs, about 300 million years ago. NGC 6872 is visible with a small telescope toward the constellation of the Peacock (Pavo).”
"Killing Our Dreams"
"Killing Our Dreams"
by Paulo Coelho
"The first symptom of the process of our killing our dreams is the lack of time. The busiest people I have known in my life always have time enough to do everything. Those who do nothing are always tired and pay no attention to the little amount of work they are required to do. They complain constantly that the day is too short. The truth is, they are afraid to fight the Good Fight.
The second symptom of the death of our dreams lies in our certainties. Because we don’t want to see life as a grand adventure, we begin to think of ourselves as wise and fair and correct in asking so little of life. We look beyond the walls of our day-to-day existence, and we hear the sound of lances breaking, we smell the dust and the sweat, and we see the great defeats and the fire in the eyes of the warriors. But we never see the delight, the immense delight in the hearts of those who are engaged in the battle. For them, neither victory nor defeat is important; what’s important is only that they are fighting the Good Fight.
And, finally, the third symptom of the passing of our dreams is peace. Life becomes a Sunday afternoon; we ask for nothing grand, and we cease to demand anything more than we are willing to give. In that state, we think of ourselves as being mature; we put aside the fantasies of our youth, and we seek personal and professional achievement. We are surprised when people our age say that they still want this or that out of life. But really, deep in our hearts, we know that what has happened is that we have renounced the battle for our dreams – we have refused to fight the Good Fight.
When we renounce our dreams and find peace, we go through a short period of tranquility. But the dead dreams begin to rot within us and to infect our entire being. We become cruel to those around us, and then we begin to direct this cruelty against ourselves. That’s when illnesses and psychoses arise. What we sought to avoid in combat – disappointment and defeat – come upon us because of our cowardice. And one day, the dead, spoiled dreams make it difficult to breathe, and we actually seek death. It’s death that frees us from our certainties, from our work, and from that terrible peace of our Sunday afternoons."
- http://paulocoelhoblog.com/
"Now What?"
"Now What?"
by Brian Maher
"The American people spoke on Election Day. But what did they say? We tune out the ambient noise, cup our ear... and lean in for a closer listen. Yet two days later their message remains garbled, jumbled, indecipherable. The static may not clear for days… or potentially weeks.
Four “battleground” states have yet to declare a definitive winner - Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia - and North Carolina. Certain media outlets placed Wisconsin and Michigan in Biden’s pocket yesterday. But the incumbent stands defiant on his rock, shaking his fists and yelling his war shouts. He has, for example, demanded a recount in the Dairy State of Wisconsin. Why? Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager: "There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results."
As Josef Stalin probably never said… “It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes!” We allege no impropriety in Wisconsin or any other united state of course. We retain the truest faith in the pristinity of American democracy… and the saintly virtue of its election officials. Do not dare mention Chicago and its former Mayor Daley - we will not listen!
The president has also filed suit against Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia for counting “illegal votes.” He further retains faith that Arizona is not yet lost. Results released today in fact reveal he has closed in on the challenger.
Can he chase him down ultimately? We do not pretend to know. This we do know: The winner must collar 270 electoral votes. Mr. Biden has 264 by the scruff - at least to our understanding. That is, he is six votes short of the grail. The president - at 217 electoral votes - requires something approaching a royal flush to retain it. Thus the challenger enjoys a drastically shorter route to victory… assuming present results withstand legal challenge.
A winner has yet to be announced, it is true. Yet we can announce a definitive election loser - or losers: Pollsters. Many had Mr. Biden trouncing the president by high single-digits. Trump stood only a 10% chance of victory, some suggested. He may lose yet. The election nonetheless turned out being a nail-chomper, a near-run thing.
For months Jim Rickards argued these polls to pieces, insisting they gave false positives for Biden. He stands vindicated in the overall. It is true, Jim predicted a slender Trump victory. Yet he did grant the authentic possibility of a Biden win: "My models project that Trump will win, but I'd be the first to admit that the uncertainty factor is high, and a Biden victory is certainly possible. Too many variables are involved this year to draw a decisive conclusion. I was more confident of a Trump win in 2016 than in this election."
A cowardly hedge, an artful dodge, a craven attempt to have it both ways? In our telling, no. Jim had to navigate hair-thin margins in key states. A nudge here, a jostle there could swing the entire vote. To anticipate them all is to anticipate the course changes of a flitting fly, numbers issuing from a random number generator, the precise number of lies emerging from Congress any given day. It cannot be done. Yet Jim came nearer than most. And he may yet hit bullseye. But now the all-important question: What next? Jim gives his answer below. Read on."
○
"Where Do We Go From Here?"
by Jim Rickards
"We're in the wake of one of the closest elections in U.S. history, at least in the Electoral College count. Joe Biden will win the popular vote count by 3 to 4 million votes. That was totally expected and is irrelevant. Presidents are elected by the Electoral College, not by the popular vote. So, let's turn our attention to that and see where things stand.
Despite the drama and anticipation, the 2020 electoral vote was playing out very much as the 2016 electoral vote played out through the late hours of Election Day and into the early morning on November 4. It’s still playing out today, two days after the election.
Tuesday night a key state evidently flipped. Arizona, which Trump won in 2016, was declared for Joe Biden. That put 11 electoral votes in Biden's column and subtracted 11 from Trump's 2016 total. That wasn’t fatal for Trump in itself, but it made his path to victory far more difficult. Arizona was called prematurely. There were too many outstanding votes to call it for Biden. Biden may end up winning Arizona, but it’s likely to be very close when all votes are counted. Trump may even win.
Alaska goes to Trump. Wisconsin and Michigan have been declared for Biden, although the Trump campaign has issued legal challenges in both states, as well as Pennsylvania. Putting the remaining undecided states to one side, that leaves the Electoral College at Biden 264 - Trump 217 as of noon today. That includes putting Alaska in Trump's column. That call is not official, but no one doubts Trump will get Alaska.
It takes 270 to win. Biden needs six electoral votes to reach 270, assuming the results stand. Trump needs 53. Here are the remaining undecided states as of now and their electoral votes: Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), and Nevada (6). If Biden wins Nevada alone, it would bring him to 270 electoral votes, even if he loses Arizona and Pennsylvania.
So, the math and the map are pretty simple. Assuming Biden’s victories in Michigan and Wisconsin stand, one more state gets him to 270 electoral votes and is the next president. Game over. If Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania he gets to 268 electoral votes and still needs to pick up either Arizona or Nevada.
Trump is clinging to small leads in Georgia and North Carolina and has a more substantial lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is clinging to a small lead in Nevada. The problem is that all of those states have districts that have either not reported yet or have uncounted ballots from a combination of mail-in ballots that have to be counted by hand. Excuses vary from a burst water pipe in the counting center (Atlanta, Georgia) to a public employee day off (Nevada), to small districts just not doing their job (Wisconsin).
Some of these results may be finalized today, but some will not. We may not know results from Nevada or Pennsylvania until Friday. Here are the two critical scenarios:
• Biden holds Arizona and wins Nevada. Result: Biden wins.
• Trump gets Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada or Arizona: Result: Trump wins.
Events are changing in real-time. Of course, other paths are possible, but the above scenarios are the key outlooks.
I'm not aware of any forecaster who said the presidential race would come down to Arizona or Nevada, but there we are. Now we need to recall Yogi Berra's immortal advice: "It ain't over 'till it's over."
The electoral vote scenarios would only apply if there's no litigation, fraud or theft. Unfortunately, all three are in play. When you are stuffing the ballot box, you first wait to see what the "regular" vote is so that you know how many votes you "need" to push your candidate over the top. That seems to have happened. In Wisconsin, over 100,000 Biden votes appeared seemingly out of nowhere on a flash drive delivered by hand from a Democratic district. That put Biden ahead in Wisconsin, but litigation will follow.
Likewise, a huge "absentee ballot" dump appeared in Michigan that heavily favored Biden. The absentee ballot level greatly exceeded past elections raising suspicions of fraud. (Absentee ballots are different from "mail-in" ballots in the sense that they are handled directly by town clerks rather than mass counting centers making them more subject to litigation). Again, litigation is in the works.
Numerous irregularities have been claimed in Pennsylvania. Of course, Philadelphia is notorious for electoral shenanigans, so challenges there cannot be ruled out. Possible legal claims on mail-in ballots in all of these open states include: late postmarks, late receipt, missing postage, missing signatures, non-matching signatures, illegible ballots and more.
Even if all of the ballots are finally counted, some states are likely to be so close that state law will allow for a recount. Wisconsin, for example, will have a recount. Other states will likely follow. Remember Florida in 2000 and the infamous "hanging chads?" Get ready for that times six.
This is just the beginning of a new and more uncertain phase that could go on for weeks. Meanwhile, there are some things we know with much higher certainty. The Republicans have retained control of the U.S. Senate, and Mitch McConnell will remain Majority Leader. That's important. McConnell will act as a wall to prevent adding Puerto Rico and Washington DC as states (giving Democrats four more Senators) and will put an end to packing the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College.
It also means the end of progressive ideas such as the New Green Deal and free everything. Republicans had a lot of Senate seats to defend this year and will have far fewer to defend in 2022. The Republican majority in the Senate may hold until the 2024 election. So, even if Biden wins, his agenda does not.
Similarly, the Republicans picked up at least six seats in the House of Representatives. That's not enough to regain the majority, but it is enough to improve cooperation with the Senate. Democrats lost a number of seats they expected to hold, especially among so-called "moderate" Democrats. The remaining moderate Democrats will not want to lose their seats in the 2022 midterm elections.
That may be enough to nudge some Democrats to work with Republicans and form a moderate working consensus on key issues. The bottom line is that the Republicans have strengthened their hand in the Congress. If Biden wins the White House, the Congress will act as a brake on the progressive, radical agenda. Checks and balances work after all.
There are lots of other presidential scenarios that are more extreme than those described above. Here's a sample that we'll update once the open states are declared:
• Some states may not be able to certify any electors by the statutory December 8, 2020 "safe harbor" date. If that happens, those states could lose their electoral votes. This radically changes the 270 vote threshold.
• Some states may certify two slates of electors; one from a Democratic governor and one from a Republican legislature in the same state. This happened in 1876. This type of dispute could easily go to the Supreme Court.
• So-called "faithless electors" could switch sides in the December 14 Electoral College vote. That's rare but has happened before. Again, a Supreme Court challenge seems likely.
• In an extreme case, if the Electoral College cannot choose a president, there will be a "provisional election" in the Congress in early January. The Senate picks the Vice President and could choose Mike Pence. The House picks the President, and it votes according to delegations, not individual members. Right now, Republicans have a majority of the state delegations even though Democrats have a majority of the members. In this scenario, the House could choose Donald Trump even if Trump loses the popular vote and trails Biden in the electoral vote. This happened in 1824. Remember, as Yogi said, "It ain't over 'till it's over.”
"I Would Rather..."
- Nadezhda Mandelstam
"The Motive..."
"All men seek happiness. This is without exception. Whatever different means they employ, they all tend to this end. The cause of some going to war, and of others avoiding it, is the same desire in both, attended with different views. The will never takes the least step but to this object. This is the motive of every action of every man, even of those who hang themselves."
- Blaise Pascal
"Market Fantasy Updates 11/5/20"
"Market Fantasy Updates 11/5/20"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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Gregory Mannarino,
AM 11/5/20:
"Markets and More:
Hump And The Cretin... Stay Distracted America!"
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Updated live.
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Daily Update (Nov. 5th to 6th)
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Insanity...
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And now... The End Game...
"Only One Question..."
"There's only one question that matters, and it's the one you never get around to asking. People are capable of varying degrees of truth. The majority spend their entire lives fabricating an elaborate skein of lies, immersing themselves in the faith of bad faith, doing whatever it takes to feel safe. The person who truly lives has precious few moments of safety, learns to thrive in any kind of storm. It's the truth you can stare down stone-cold that makes you what you are. Weak or strong. Live or die. Prove yourself. How much truth can you take?"
- Karen Marie Moning
"Business As Usual"
"Business As Usual"
By Bill Bonner
"When you stop building, you die."
– Old Chinese proverb
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "On the hill behind the house, we have begun building a tiny, family chapel. Almost all the farms in the area have a church. Ours has none… at least, not on this side of the river.
Chapel under construction.
Why would we want a chapel? The world is a busy place. The busy-ness of it can distract… mislead… and distort your life. If you watch the news today, for example, you will come away thinking that the U.S. presidential election is the most important thing happening in the world… that the future of the nation depends on it… and that we must turn our thoughts and emotions towards it as if our favorite dog were dying in the corner of the room. (As we explain below, as the election dust settles, it looks more and more like the world has not changed at all.)
In any case, it doesn’t hurt to have a place set aside for non-busy-ness… where the hustle and bustle of the outside world can be tuned out… with no internet, no TV, and no radio… a quiet, solemn, cool place… to wonder about what really matters… to admit our weaknesses and vanities… to strengthen our soul, steel our spirit, and prepare our mind for the vicious indignities…in the news! More about our building project in a moment…
Another Grievance: First… Yes, we will suffer through the latest headlines… The Dow rose again yesterday – by another 367 points. The futures market tells us it will rise again today. What are investors thinking? Aren’t they worried about a hung election? People are already on edge. Many think their happiness has been stolen by the Chinese, the Democrats… transgenders, etc. And now, they have another grievance – the election has been “stolen!’’
“It’s no secret that the Democrats will try to steal this election,” said a Trump fundraiser yesterday. About a third of the population believes that if the votes had been counted honestly, their man would be secure in the White House and ready to do everything that he promised to do four years ago. But all of it – the election campaigning… the voting… the two candidates… the platforms – all of it is like a dust storm. In the middle of it, you can see nothing else. And when it is over, everything is just the same.
And underneath all the flying dirt, a huge sewer runs its course… flowing day by day… carrying the effluent of our public policies… the mail-in ballots that went down the drain… the commentaries that no one read… the lies, the balderdash… the claptrap… And all of us, too – rudderless, clueless, helpless, hopeless… drifting along… headed for the treatment plant, which is where – to use the colloquial expression – the sh*t hits the fan!
Business as Usual: Investors figure that no big change is coming. Instead… with the election out of the way, it will be back to business as usual. And more and more, it looks like they are right. Here at the Diary, we always look at the bright side. And we held out hope that Trumpism would be demolished and that Republicans, sweeping up the debris and reflecting on what went wrong, might be reborn as genuine conservatives.
Alas, the voters repudiated neither the socialism of the Left (Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, etc.) nor the socialism of the Right (Trumpism). The headlines are reporting that “gridlock” may be coming – with the Supreme Court and the Senate in Republican hands… and the House and the presidency under Democrat control. The Financial Times suggests that, if elected, Joe Biden may be a “lame duck” president. But no matter which bird ends up sitting in the Oval Office, the one grid that won’t be locked is the one that keeps all of them large and in charge.
Yes, the one thing they all agree on is that the money-printing, interest rate suppressing, power-grabbing jackassery must continue. And we know where that leads – to the aforementioned sewage treatment plant.
Self Protection: So, what do we do to protect ourselves? First, our colleague Dan Denning suggests having a “bolthole,” a safe and agreeable place where you can wait it out. You can find out how to get his report on the subject here. Another colleague, Tom Dyson, suggests – more by actions than words – a more fluid approach. He has anchored his wealth in gold… so that it won’t be blown away. But as for his family, he goes about under full sail… ready to tack to starboard or to port to dodge the foul weather when it comes his way. You can follow Tom’s story here.
Second, though Tom has pointed out the safest, simplest, most reliable way to protect your money – just put it in gold – it falls to your editor to try to do even better. This we attempt to do in our Trade of the Decade… about which, more tomorrow.
Faith and Courage: Today, let us finish telling you about our chapel. For nearly 50 years, we’ve almost always had some building project underway. Not only were they fun to do, they were also ways of engaging our children in meaningful work. Restoring our old family farmhouse in Maryland. Fixing stone walls in France. Scraping off wallpaper… and painting rooms in an old wreck of a château. Building barns. Putting up fences.
And then, there were the “experimental” projects. One of them was particularly difficult. It was down here in Argentina eight years ago. The altitude made breathing difficult. The sun was so intense, we erected a sunscreen so that we could work in partial shade. The rocks were heavy. The flies were biting. And we worked alongside a local crew from dawn to dusk; the last thing we wanted was to show ourselves up as weak or incapable. “If you can do this,” we told our two boys, “the rest of life will seem easy.” The boys didn’t forget. That experience stuck with them… giving them faith in themselves and courage to tackle whatever comes their way. At least… that’s what we’d like to think.
Sticky Mud: Now, we are alone. The children have their own lives. But the building continues. Here in San MartÃn, the techniques are basic. We buy no materials, save for a few bags of cement. Everything else comes from the ground… and nearby trees. The only real expense is the labor… currently running about $1 an hour.
With a small team of locals, led by a friendly giant named Monzon, we mix up mud, just as it has been done for the last 3,000 years. A pool is shaped… dirt shoveled in… some straw added… and then, one of the changos (boys) stomps around in it until it is the consistency of, well, sticky mud. The mud is then shoveled into brick molds and left to dry in the sun. These bricks are about three times the size of the common, oven-fired red brick used in the U.S. Once dry, they are laid up with more mud, on a foundation of stone and concrete… up to about 6 and a half feet high.
Mud bricks.
In the eastern wall, we have embedded a cross. It is made by taking our empty wine bottles – of which we have many – cutting them in half, and then putting two bottom ends together with duct tape. This gives us glass tubes that transmit the morning light over where the altar will stand.
Cross made from wine bottles.
Roof Plans: The difficult part is the roof. It would be easy to stretch some barras from wall to wall, lay on some sheathing of cane stalks, and cover it with more mud. That is the usual way of making a roof in this area. But what would be the fun of that? Where’s the challenge? And then, gazing up at the ceiling in a moment of solemn prayer, where would we find inspiration? Great churches – and humble ones, too – typically have soaring roofs, braced and buttressed, reaching up to the heavens. Here, without rafters, cross-bracing, or sheathing… we will build a roof of mud bricks in the form of two intersecting vaults, following an ancient model.
Years ago, we came across a book – Roman Era Construction Techniques. We will use it to guide our roofing effort. Then, if all goes well, in moments of quiet reflection, we will look up and admire our handiwork.
Home for Thanksgiving: But the finale will have to wait until next year. In the next two weeks, we will complete the walls. And then, we hope to go home to the U.S. for Thanksgiving. Argentina opens up this week. Airlines are back in business – on a much-reduced scale. With a little luck, we should be able to make our escape, flying from Salta to Buenos Aires and then on to Miami. But if we are able to get away, the chapel will remain unroofed… until our next visit here… in 2021. (Fortunately, it almost never rains here.) As always… stay tuned."
X22 Report 2.0: "Coup d’etat, Trump Sets Trap To Expose It All"
X22 Report 2.0: "Coup d’etat,
Trump Sets Trap To Expose It All"
November 5, 2020 by IWB: "TRAP SET: Dept of Homeland Security controlled “official ballots” production. Dems print extras, not knowing about non-radioactive isotope watermarks on “official ballots”."
NOV 5, 2020 12:30 PM: "Biden's Lead Expands In Nevada As Vote Count Drags On; Philly Dems Move To Stop Trump Observers" Trump: "All of the recent Biden claimed States will be legally challenged by us for Voter Fraud and State Election Fraud..."
November 5, 2020 by IWB: "If there’s one tweet to sum up the voter fraud, this is it!"
"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 11/5/20"
by David Leonhardt
11/5/20: • The U.S. recorded more than 100,000 new virus cases for the first time yesterday. Hospitalizations have topped 50,000 for the first time since early August.
• The country’s supply of protective gear - particularly N95 face masks - is being strained again, The Wall Street Journal reports.
• New Jersey released more than 2,200 inmates to reduce the risks of infection in crowded prisons.
• Italy imposed a nationwide 10 p.m. curfew and closed museums and high schools. In six hard-hit regions, including Sicily and the city of Milan, the government will shutter restaurants and limit travel.
Nov. 5, 2020 9:00 AM ET:
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 48,256,700
people, according to official counts, including 9,976,594Americans.
Nov. 5, 2020 9:00 AM ET:
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count◆
NOV 5, 2020 9:51 AM: "World Sees Most Daily COVID-19 Deaths Yet As Greece Imposes National Lockdown:Live Updates" More than 10,000 deaths in a single day.
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Updated 11/7/20, 6:25 AM ET
Click image for larger size.
- https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
A "Must Read":
Wednesday, November 4, 2020
"COVID Testing: We've Been Duped"
"COVID Testing: We've Been Duped"
by A.Castellitto
"Lost in this whole pandemic hysteria are some key considerations that when carefully analyzed place the whole COVID-19 narrative in a highly questionable light. The gatekeepers of information dissimulation are manufacturing consent at an alarming rate, but their fatigue is setting in, and their masks are falling off. What better, albeit unlikely, source to go for some much needed illumination than the New York Times?
During a considerably quieter time, back in 2007, the New York Times featured a very interesting exposé on molecular diagnostic testing - specifically, the inadequacy of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test in achieving reliable results. The most significant concern highlighted in the Times report is how molecular tests, most notably the PCR, are highly sensitive and prone to false positives. At the center of the controversy was a potential outbreak in a hospital in New Hampshire that proved to be nothing more than "ordinary respiratory diseases like the common cold." Unfortunately, the results wrought by the PCR told a different story.
Thankfully, a faux epidemic was avoided but not before thousands of workers were furloughed and given antibiotics and ultimately a vaccine, and hospital beds (including some in intensive care) were taken out of commission. Eight months later, what was thought to be an epidemic was deemed a non-malicious hoax. The culprit? According to "epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists, too much faith in a quick and highly sensitive molecular test led them astray." At the time, such tests were "coming into increasing use" as maybe "the only way to get a quick answer in diagnosing diseases like SARS, and deciding whether an epidemic is under way."
Nevertheless, today, the PCR test is considered the gold standard of molecular diagnostics, most notably in the diagnosis of COVID-19. However, a closer analysis reveals that the PCR has actually been pretty spotty and that false positives abound. Thankfully, the New York Times is once again on the case.
"Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive; Maybe It Shouldn't Be," according to NYT reporter Apoorva Mandavilli. Essentially, positive results are getting tossed around way too frequently. Rather, they should probably be reserved for individuals with "greater viral load." So how have they've been doing it all this time you ask? "The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample, the more likely the patient is to be contagious."
Unfortunately, the "cycle threshold" has been ramped up. What happens when it's ramped up? Basically, "huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus" are deemed infected. However, the severity of the infection is never quantified, which essentially amounts to a false positive. Their level of contagion is essentially nil.
How are they determining the cycle threshold? If I didn't suspect that it was based on maximizing the amount of "cases," I would find the determination pretty arbitrary. More than a few of the professionals on record for Times report appear pretty perplexed on this vital detail which is essentially driving "clinical diagnostics, for public health and policy decision-making." Considering all that's at stake and everything that hinges on positive vs negative case tallies, it's outrageous that these tests would be tweaked in a way that would inflate the positive rate totals and percentages.
According to one virologist, "any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive." She went on to to say, "I'm shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive." Personally, I think the science is just about settled on COVID-19. The conclusion? We've been duped!"
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