Col. Douglas Macgregor, "This War Is Over, Russia Has Won"

Col. Douglas Macgregor, Straight Calls, 8/2/23

"This War Is Over, Russia Has Won"

"Analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current

 geopolitical events in the United States of America and the world."

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"Discarding Illusions, Ending Wars"

From the moment the war in Ukraine started, Western 

reporting on the war was a radical repudiation of the truth.

by Col. Douglas Macgregor

"From the moment the war in Ukraine started, Western reporting on the war was a radical repudiation of the truth. Washington and its NATO allies always knew that NATO expansion to Russia’s borders would precipitate an armed conflict with Moscow, but NATO’s ruling globalist class did not care. For them, Russia in 2022 was unchanged from the weak and incapable Russia of the late 1990s. The risk of failure seemed low. Ergo, Russia could be bullied into submission.

Americans and most Europeans did not bother to question or analyze. Widespread strategic ignorance about Russia and Eastern Europe ensured that most Americans and even West Europeans would react quickly and viscerally to the Western media’s distorted images and lies about Russia. At the same time, tolerance for criticism of Washington’s role in fashioning the corrupt and deceitful conduct of the Volodymyr Zelenskyy Regime and its war was disallowed in the press.

Washington’s ruling class was cheered when it dismissed Russian proposals for talks on any grounds that did not recognize NATO’s right to transform Ukraine into a base for U.S. and Allied Military Power aimed at Russia. Ukrainian flags sprouted from the lush grounds of America’s wealthier neighborhoods like flowers in an arboretum and wonders in the form of limitless military assistance, miracle weapons, and cash were promised to President Zelenskyy - promises that strategic reality did not justify.

In 2022 the Biden Administration no longer possessed the military and economic strength to wage high-end conventional warfare that it had in 1991. Waging a major war 10,000 miles from home on the Eurasian continent is impossible without the support of truly powerful Allies on the model of the British Empire during WWII. Washington’s NATO allies are military dependencies, not formidable strategic partners.

Whereas Russian Military Power is still structured for decisive operations launched from Russian soil, U.S. Military power is geared to project limited air, naval, and land power thousands of miles from home to the periphery of Asia and Africa. American military power consists of boutique forces designed for safari in Africa and the Middle East, not decisive combat operations against great continental powers like Russia or China.

Eighteen months later Ukraine is in ruins. Its latest counteroffensive achieved nothing. In the last three weeks, an estimated 26,000 Ukrainian soldiers died in pointless attacks against world-class Russian defenses ‘in depth.’ (Defenses ‘in depth’ mean a security zone of 15 -25 kilometers in front of the main defense, that consists of at least three defense belts twenty or more kilometers deep.) By comparison, Russian losses were minimal.

Today, more than 100,000 Russian troops are conducting offensive operations along the Lyman-Kupiansk axis. These forces include 900 tanks, 555 artillery systems and 370 multiple rocket launchers. It does not take much imagination to anticipate the breakthrough of these forces to the North where they can encircle Kharkiv.

Once Russian Forces surround the city, they will become an irresistible magnet for Ukraine’s last reserve of 30-40,000 troops. Ukrainian Forces attacking to the East to break through to Kharkov will present the combination of Russian space and terrestrial-based ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets and Precision Strike Aerospace, Artillery, Rocket, and Missile Systems with a target array that only a blind man could miss.

None of these developments should surprise anyone in the West. Building a Ukrainian army on the fly with a hotchpotch of hastily assembled equipment from a multitude of NATO members and an officer corps of many courageous, but inexperienced officers had little chance of success even under the best of circumstances.

Wars are decided in the decades before they begin. In war, the sudden appearance of “Silver Bullet” technology seldom provides more than a temporary advantage and strong personalities in the senior ranks do not compensate for inadequate military organization, training, thinking, and effective equipment. A new, leaked memorandum from sources inside Ukraine illustrates these points:

“Units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are at such terrible states of degradation that soldiers are abandoning their posts, and whilst not mentioned in these documents, a flood of videos have been published from Russian sources claiming Ukrainian service personnel are surrendering at the first opportunity owing to the belief that they are being treated as ‘nothing more than cannon fodder.’”

Events on the ground are beginning to overtake the carefully orchestrated charade in Kiev. There is little that pontificating retired generals and armchair military analysts can do to halt the inevitable. Moscow understands that the war will not end without Russian offensive action. Whatever the Washington’s original goals may have been, theybeen they are unrealizable. Russian forces will soon fall on the Ukrainian forces with the momentum and the impact of an avalanche.

In view of these points, before all of Ukraine’s manpower is annihilated, or a “Coalition of the Willing” from Poland and Lithuania marches into Western Ukraine, Washington can arrest Ukraine’s downward spiral into total defeat, and Washington’s own irresponsible drift into a regional war with Russia for which Washington and its allies are not prepared.

Cooler heads can prevail inside the beltway. The fighting can stop, but a ceasefire, and the diplomatic talks that must proceed from a ceasefire, will not occur unless Washington and its Allies acknowledge three critical points:

First, whatever form the Ukrainian State assumes in the aftermath of the conflict, Ukraine must be neutral and non-aligned. NATO membership is out of the question. A neutral Ukraine on the Austrian model can still provide a buffer between Russia and its Western Neighbors.

Second, Washington and its Allies must immediately suspend all military aid to Ukraine. Doubling down on failure by introducing more equipment and technology the Ukrainian Forces cannot quickly absorb and employ is wasteful and self-defeating.

Third, all U.S. and allied personnel, clandestine or in uniform, must withdraw from Ukraine. Insisting on some form of NATO presence as a face-saving measure is pointless. The attempt to extend NATO’s “new globalist world order” to Russia has failed.

The point is straightforward. It is time for Washington to turn its attention inward and address the decades of American societal, economic, and military decay that ensued after 1991. It’s time to reverse the decline in American national prosperity, and power; to avoid unnecessary overseas conflict; and to shun future interventions in the affairs of other nation states and their societies. The threats to our Republic are here, at home, not in the Eastern Hemisphere."

- https://thekennedybeacon.substack.com/

John Wilder, "The Great Rollover"

"The Great Rollover"

by John Wilder

"Yellow Freight® shut down. They had been around for 99 years, starting business way back in time when Bernie Sanders was trying to ruin the Austro-Hungarian Empire or Bulgaria or wherever he came from. Yellow Freight© was an old company and 30,000 people lost their jobs. What went on? Well, Yellow© borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars emergency ‘rona bucks. When they went bankrupt, they had an outstanding loan balance (backstopped by you and I) of $729.2 million. During the two and a half years that they’d had the loan, they’d paid down $54.8 million in interest. They’d also paid down $230 in principle. Not $230 million. Not $230 thousand. $230, so I’m guessing their strategy was to pay it off at $10 a month, which would ensure that they’d pay off the loan in roughly the year 6,079,523.

Oddly, no one would take a risk on refinancing a company that had such powerhouse earnings, and so all of the people who used to have pensions with Yellow™ found out that their pension value would be paid out at the same rate as the loan was being paid out, and it’s pretty hard to split $10 among 30,000 people each month. Most of the 30,000 folks from Yellow Freight© will find another job – truckers are still in demand, and other companies have picked up the slack so far.

This isn’t the first. Just like the banks who had money in Treasury paper took a hit (Silicon Valley Bank®, I’d be looking at you if you were still here) because the “super-safe” bonds making 1% were worth a lot less when interest rates went up to 4%. The FDIC™ requires the banks that they insure to report data. It’s kinda scary when the FDIC© uses the X® (the social media company formerly known as Prince) to notify banks (and the American public) that banks might be in trouble again.

The same thing is, perhaps, happening to the dollar itself – yesterday lost its AAA bond rating from Fitch™ and is now producing AA bonds. Still a good rating, but it’s a big hit from “nearly perfect plus has nuclear missiles” and the first step to becoming a “drunk wine aunt country that can’t afford to take vacations”, like Uzbekistan.

As I’ve written before, it’s awesome to have “the reserve currency”, since that means you can print all the cash you want and spend it on things like iPods™ from China, Hello Kitty™ slippers from Bangladesh, and tequila from Mexico (what’s known as a “Hunter Biden Saturday Morning Special”). Losing it means a loss of that ability, and all of a sudden you have to work for all of that stuff rather than just printing cash.

That’s difficult, because there’s always competition in having the reserve currency. One competitor, of course, is precious metals. Another is land. My father-in-law liked to say, “if it blows up, at least you still have the hole.” After the debt ceiling deal (translation: spend as much as you want until after the general election), the debt shot up, climbing $1.8 trillion in just two months. I mean, that’s a crazy number, we don’t even give that much to Zelenskyy in a year!

Eventually that has an effect on all assets. Although Darth Powell doesn’t exactly have the understanding of how home prices work, it is closer to say that at the same payment at a 7% mortgage rate, you can afford a heck of a lot less home than you can afford at 2.7%. Unless wages go up or BlackRock© decides to buy houses because they ran out of illegal aliens to import this month.

Or, if the bankers get absolute control over who uses what cash and when. That’s the goal. Will that happen if things are going well, and we’re surrounded by prosperity? Of course not. In order to get control, the idea is chaos, uncertainty, war, and mayhem. If you’re old enough, how do the 2020s compare to the 1980s? The 1990s? The 2000s? In nearly every way that doesn’t involve ludicrously cheap televisions, each of those decades was objectively better. I’ve noted before that Peak USA probably hit somewhere before I was born to when I was a little kid.

I’m normally a fan of the idea of ineptitude being responsible for at least being some contributing factor to the problems that we have, but when I look at the gross mismanagement of the economy for decades it almost seems like it’s planned. But I’m sure I’ll hear Bernie lecturing us all that socialism and more government is the way out from the balcony of one of his three houses soon enough. After all, it’s worked out pretty well for him, what with him never having had an actual job and all."

- https://wilderwealthywise.com/

"There Are Times..."

"There are times the lies get to me, times I weary of battering myself against the obstacles of denial, hatred, fear-induced stupidity, and greed, times I want to curl up and fall into the problem, let it sweep me away as it so obviously sweeps away so many others. I remember a spring day a few years ago, a spring day much like this one, only a little more sun, and warmer. I sat on this same couch and looked out this same window at the same ponderosa pine.

I was frightened, and lonely. Frightened of a future that looks dark, and darker with each passing species, and lonely because for every person actively trying to shut down the timber industry, stop abuse, or otherwise bring about a sustainable and sane way of living, there are thousands who are helping along this not-so-slow train to oblivion. I began to cry.

The tears stopped soon enough. I realized we are not so outnumbered. We are not outnumbered at all. I looked closely, and saw one blade of wild grass, and another. I saw the sun reflecting bright off the needles of pine trees, and I heard the hum of flies. I saw ants walking single file through the dust, and a spider crawling toward the corner of the ceiling. I knew in that moment, as I've known ever since, that it is no longer possible to be lonely, that every creature on earth is pulling in the direction of life- every grasshopper, every struggling salmon, every unhatched chick, every cell of every blue whale - and it is only our own fear that sets us apart. All humans, too, are struggling to be sane, struggling to live in harmony with our surroundings, but it's really hard to let go. And so we lie, destroy, rape, murder, experiment, and extirpate, all to control this wildly uncontrollable symphony, and failing that, to destroy it."

- Derrick Jensen,

"A Language Older Than Words"

"How It Really Is"

 

"All Sins..."

"All sins, of course, deserve to be treated with mercy: we all do what we can, and life is too hard and too cruel for us to condemn anyone for failing in this area. Does anyone know what he himself would do if faced with the worst, and how much truth could he bear under such circumstances?"

- Andre Comte-Sponville

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Joe South, "Walk A Mile In My Shoes"

Bill Bonner, "The Sun Also Sets"

"The Sun Also Sets"

"Adrift in a sea of woe, woke, and weird, 

the sun begins to set on 'The West'"...

by Bill Bonner

"The Pope…how many divisions has he?"

~ Josef Stalin

Poitou, France - "This just in on the latest Gallup Poll. Americans’ most trusted institution, the military, is falling from grace. Responsiblestatecraft.org: The left claims that racism and other intolerances in the ranks have caused Americans to turn against the military; the right says “woke” politics are at the root of increasing alienation. Perhaps the culture indeed is responsible for the 25 percent shortfall in recruitment, but beware of partisan narratives that appear to speak for everyone and explain trends so neatly. Never is anything that simple.

Nope. Not that simple. The right supposedly thinks the military is too woke. The left supposedly thinks it is not woke enough. But what if the real reason Americans are losing faith in the Pentagon is neither? What if they are losing faith in Congress…in the White House…both political parties…in the Supreme Court…and in the whole shebang?

They, the Elite: What if ‘The People” are catching on? What if they are realizing that the military works for the elite…and that the elite deciders work for themselves, not for ‘The People?’ Why do we have $32 trillion of federal debt? Why do the feds continue to add more?Bloomberg reports: "The Treasury Department increased its net borrowing estimate for the July through September quarter to $1 trillion, well up from the $733 billion amount it had predicted in early May."

One trillion dollars in just three months. And every penny of it will be paid – one way or another – by “The People.” Wars, boondoggles, claptrap programs – why are there so many of them? And yes, the superficial reasons for these things are obvious: they pay off for the deciders. Bloomberg again: "Lockheed Is Reaping $2.3 Billion So Far Restocking the Pentagon." "Pushing to restock depleted US weapons stockpiles, the Pentagon has already committed almost $2.3 billion of a potential $6 billion to Lockheed Martin Corp., the top maker of munitions that the US has provided Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion, according to new Defense Department data."

Unequal Men: But in this sea of woe, woke, and weird…there are deeper currents. ‘Megapolitics’ is the term coined by our friends, James Davidson and Lord Rees Mogg, to describe them. Largely invisible, rarely understood, and impossible to contradict, they sweep us along like plastic bottles on a flood tide.

“All men are created equal” is an idea. The 375 Zulu warriors killed at Rorke’s Drift was a fact. And behind that fact was another one: the handful of English soldiers who killed them had rifles. The Zulus had spears. For hundreds of years, the power relationship was so unequal that Europeans were able to colonize much of the world…while neither Africans, Asians, nor the Indians of North or South America colonized any part of Europe.

That’s megapolitics. It didn’t matter what anyone thought; the Zulus were out-gunned. Ultimately, it’s the facts that matter. Ideas are how we explain, justify and misinterpret them.

Which brings us to the latest twist in the story of the Industrial Revolution, and the deciders’ latest crusade; they want to eliminate fossil fuels. It was coal that gave the English a decisive edge at Rorke’s Drift. Coal…and later, oil and gas…fired the furnaces that made steel. The steel was turned into the ships that took the English to Africa…the motors that powered the ships…and the guns that they used to kill Zulus.

Cometh the Machines: Your humble editor, personally, brought the industrial revolution to the Calchaqui Valley in Argentina. When we arrived there were no tractors or modern machinery in use on the farm. The cowboys rode horses. An aging percheron pulled a hay rake. A mule pulled a plow with a single blade. In less than 10 years all that changed. Tractors, trucks and a backhoe now do the hard work. The ranch hands ride on motorbikes or pickup trucks. Output rose in a single hop. And then it was over. We can increase productivity, perhaps, with newer machines, more chemicals, more fertilizer and better seeds – but probably not by much.

And in Europe and ‘the West’ today, the Industrial Revolution is over. Growth rates have been going down for half a century. Birthrates are falling. Populations are in decline. Our use of fossil fuel is going down. Debt is piling up; current output can’t keep up with our expenses. And now, the Zulus have automatic rifles too. The BRICs become more independent, more powerful. The “Global South” (which somehow included India, and China, both in the Northern Hemisphere) will soon produce most of the world’s cars, ships, and guns.

Meanwhile, in ‘the West,’ the advances of the Industrial Revolution, if there are any, are incremental…not revolutionary….and often, illusory. Today, we have all the internal combustion engines we can use. We can get new and better ones, but they will make only incremental improvements to output. It is in this fertile soil…the declining marginal utility of fossil fuels…that a new idea has taken root: that coal, gas, oil are evil. More to come…"

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"So, How Do You Beat The Odds..."

“So, how do you beat the odds when it’s one against a billion? You’re just outnumbered. You stand strong, keep pushing yourself against all rational limits, and never give up. But the truth of the matter is, despite how hard you try and fight to stay in control, when it’s all said and done, sometimes you’re just outnumbered.”

- “Meredith”, “Gray’s Anatomy”

○

“In the movie “The Lion in Winter”, when the sons, in the dungeon, think they hear Henry coming down the stairs to kill them:

Richard: ”He’s here! He’ll get no satisfaction out of us! Don’t let him see you beg! Take it like a man!”

Geoffrey: “You chivalric fool! As if the way one falls down matters!”

Richard: ”Well, when the fall is all that’s left, it matters a great deal.”

"Too Often..."

"The majority of us lead quiet, unheralded lives as we pass through this world. There will most likely be no ticker-tape parades for us, no monuments created in our honor. But that does not lessen our possible impact, for there are scores of people waiting for someone just like us to come along; people who will appreciate our compassion, our unique talents. Someone who will live a happier life merely because we took the time to share what we had to give. Too often we underestimate the power of a touch, a smile, a kind word, a listening ear, an honest compliment, or the smallest act of caring, all of which have a potential to turn a life around. It's overwhelming to consider the continuous opportunities there are to make our love felt."

- Leo Buscaglia

Dan, I Allegedly, "You Need To Pay Up"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly 8/2/23

"You Need To Pay Up"

"The deadline has passed. You must pay all your back rent into payments. First one is an 18 month payment due on August 1, 2023 the second 24 months of payments is due on February 1, 2024. Plus, people are so upset that they have to pay their student loans back."

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"Massive Price Increases At Family Dollar! This Is Overwhelming! What Now?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, 8/2/23

"Massive Price Increases At Family Dollar! 

This Is Overwhelming! What Now?"

"In today's vlog, we are at Family Dollar and are noticing some very frustrating price increases. Prices have gotten so high here due to inflation and other factors. This is getting overwhelming as many families are searching for cheaper grocery prices and struggling to put food on the table."

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"Alert! NATO Evacuations Underway; Troops Deploy After Border Incident"

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 8/1/23

"Alert! NATO Evacuations Underway;

 Troops Deploy After Border Incident"

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Full screen recommended.

Hindustan Times, 8/1/23

"Russian Ally Belarus' Military Choppers Enter Poland; 

NATO Briefed, Warsaw Rushes Troops To Border"

"In a major escalation, Belarusian military choppers entered NATO nation Poland's airspace on Tuesday, prompting Warsaw to send additional troops on the border with Belarus, a close ally of Russia. Warsaw said that the choppers of the Belarus army entered Polish airspace during military drills. Poland is already on alert since Wagner Group mercenaries entered Belarus after their failed mutiny against the Kremlin in June. The Polish government said that NATO has been informed about the latest development."

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"Having No Money And No Job Is Scary; House Poor Americans; Debt Is Eating You Alive"

Jeremiah Babe, 8/1/23

"Having No Money And No Job Is Scary;

 House Poor Americans; Debt Is Eating You Alive"

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"McDonald's Bankruptcies Soar 40% And Now Thousands Of Stores Are About To Disappear"

Full screen recommended.

"McDonald's Bankruptcies Soar 40% And Now

 Thousands Of Stores Are About To Disappear"

by Epic Economist

"Mcdonald's is a fast food empire with over 40,000 restaurants across the globe and more than 13,000 locations in the United States. With an annual revenue of over $23 billion a year, the company is by far the largest burger chain in the world. Since the pandemic, it saw profits ballooning, despite citing rising operational costs and supply chain issues as major problems dragging growth and even passing along a series of price increases to its customers to allegedly offset sales losses. With its stock rallying at the moment, and higher menu prices resulting in a significant increase in average ticket costs, it’s hard to imagine how a business of this size and magnitude can be struggling right now. The answer is not simple, but in today’s video, we’re going to explain why the biggest fast food chain in the entire industry is facing a rare and yet unsurprising wave of bankruptcies in 2023.

Despite being the greatest fast-food corporation the world has ever seen, 95% of McDonald’s restaurants in America are operated by independent owners, and the war between corporate and franchisees seems to be getting worse this year. For decades, operators have been fighting McDonald’s tightening rules and expensive demands, and now many of them are hitting a breaking point.

For about 40% of franchisees, McDonald’s new financial requirements may end their years-long leases because the company’s rising expenses are not allowing these stores to hit profit targets. Simply put, these franchisees may have their contracts canceled, losing all of their investment if they fail to meet corporate expectations. In other words, one in four McDonald’s operators is at risk of going bankrupt due to the actions of the company itself.

But their strategy of expanding their business on the back of operators isn’t a clever one. At some point, its entire model could be at risk if enough of them decide to leave the company. When they signed their contracts with the megachain, franchisees were promised to become partners with the company. But over the years, corporate changed rules and regulations, so that the operators were the only ones responsible for the risk of managing a low-margin restaurant business during economic downturns.

On a consumer level, things aren’t going great either. The brand’s push for more expensive burgers has not been well-accepted by customers. Even though the average ticket prices have risen by roughly 15% over the past 12 months due to higher menu prices, there are fewer people visiting McDonald’s locations on a monthly basis, and they are even fewer people revisiting its restaurants multiple times in a month.

Put simply, customer loyalty is going down, and that was one of the main pillars that helped McDonald’s to build its brand since its foundation in 1955. Unfortunately, McDonald’s case is a clear demonstration of how a great business can rot from within due to its own greed. That’s a reality more people are waking up to right now, and that ultimately will contribute to the demise of the greatest fast-food chain America has ever seen."

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Musical Interlude: Neil H, "Spellbound"

Neil H, "Spellbound"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the below gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope.

The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130422.html

Chet Raymo, “The Spark of Life”

“The Spark of Life”

by Chet Raymo

"In a previous post I quoted Teilhard de Chardin referring to the discovery of electromagnetic waves as a "prodigious biological event." A biological event? What could he mean? The universe was awash with electromagnetic waves long before life appeared on Earth, or anywhere else in the universe. The cosmic microwave background radiation- the residue of the big bang- is electromagnetic. Starlight is an electromagnetic wave. You can "discover" electromagnetic waves by opening your eyes.

Of course, what Teilhard referred to was the conscious control of electromagnetic radiation by sentient biological creatures. Electromagnetic waves were predicted theoretically by the Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell in 1864, as he played with equations describing electric and magnetic fields. Then, twenty-two years later, electromagnetic waves were experimentally demonstrated by Heinrich Hertz, who in effect made the first radio broadcast and reception. At Hertz's transmitter a spark jumped back and forth between two metal spheres 50 million times a second. Across the room a similar spark was instantly produced at the receiver. Invisible electrical energy had passed through space at the speed of light.

A spark dancing between two spheres- an unpretentious beginning for the age of radio, television, mobile phones and wireless internet. That first transmitter and receiver had a basement-workshop simplicity about them. Hertz demonstrated the nature of electromagnetic waves with constructions of wood, brass and sealing wax.

Wood, brass, sealing wax and conscious intelligence. Here on Earth- perhaps throughout the universe- stardust gave rise to living slime. The slime complexified, became conscious. Invented mathematics, experimental science. Caused sparks to jump between metal spheres. Sent the signature of biological activity across a room. Across a planet. Across the universe."

"Prodigious!”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

The Poet: Margaret Atwood, "The Moment"

"The Moment"

"The moment when, after many years

of hard work and a long voyage

you stand in the center of your room,

house, half-acre, square mile, island, country,

knowing at last how you got there,

and say, I own this,

is the same moment when the trees unloose

their soft arms from around you,

the birds take back their language,

the cliffs fissure and collapse,

the air moves back from you like a wave

and you can't breathe.

No, they whisper. You own nothing.

You were a visitor, time after time

climbing the hill, planting the flag, proclaiming.

We never belonged to you.

You never found us.

It was always the other way round."

- Margaret Atwood

"Morning in the Burned House"

"The Farewell"

“The Farewell”

“Farewell to you and the youth I have spent with you.

It was but yesterday we met in a dream.

You have sung to me in my aloneness,

and I of your longings have built a tower in the sky.

But now our sleep has fled and our dream is over,

and it is no longer dawn.

The noontide is upon us and our half waking has turned to fuller day,

and we must part.

If in the twilight of memory we should meet once more,

we shall speak again together and you shall sing to me a deeper song.

And if our hands should meet in another dream

we shall build another tower in the sky.”

- Kahlil Gibran, “The Prophet”

The Daily "Near You?"

Mesa, Arizona, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Truth?"

I've always believed you can handle the truth, given the chance...It may not be what you want to hear, but it is the truth to the best of my ability to determine. What if anything you do with it is of course up to you... - CP

"Lessons From The Unraveling Of The Roman Empire: Simplification, Localization"

"Lessons From The Unraveling Of The Roman Empire:

 Simplification, Localization"

The fragmentation, simplification and localization of the 

post-Imperial era offers us lessons we ignore at our peril.

by Charles Hugh Smith

"There is an entire industry devoted to "why the Roman Empire collapsed," but the post-collapse era may offer us higher value lessons. The post-collapse era, long written off as The Dark Ages, is better understood as a period of adaptation to changing conditions, specifically, the relocalization and simplification of the economy and governance.

As historian Chris Wickham has explained in his books "Medieval Europe" and "The Inheritance of Rome: Illuminating the Dark Ages 400-1000," the medieval era is best understood as a complex process of social, political and economic natural selection: while the Western Roman Empire unraveled, the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium) continued on for almost 1,000 years after the fall of the Western Roman Empire, and the social and political structures of the Western Roman Empire influenced Europe for hundreds of years.

In broad-brush, the Roman Empire was a highly centralized, tightly bound system that was remarkably adaptive despite its enormous size and the slow pace of transport and communication. Roman society was both highly hierarchical--the elites claimed superiority and worked hard to master the necessary tools of authority-- slaves were integral to the building and maintenance of Rome's vast infrastructure--and open to meritocracy, as the Roman Army and other classes were open to advancement by anyone in the sprawling empire: every free person became a Roman Citizen once their territory was absorbed into the Empire.

When the Empire fell apart, the model of centralized control/power continued on in the reigns of the so-called Barbarian kingdoms (Goths, Vandals, etc.) and Charlemagne (768-814), over 300 years after the fall of Rome. (When the Ottomans finally conquered Constantinople in 1453, they also adopted many of the bureaucratic structures of the Byzantine Empire.)

Over time, however, the feudal model of localized fiefdoms nominally loyal to a weak central monarchy replaced the centralized model of governance. This adaptation fit the highly fragmented nature of European societies in this era.

But centralized influence never went away. The Christian churches based in Rome and Constantinople continued to exert centralized influence in politically fragmented regions, and monarchies continued to exist, in various states of strength and weakness. The Holy Roman Empire--as Voltaire is reputed to have observed, "neither Holy, Roman or an Empire"--had an enormously complex history in Germany and the rest of Europe. The monarchies in England and France remained in place, and the city-states of northern Italy wielded influence via trade and shifting alliances.

In other words, the Medieval era was ultimately a complex competition between overlapping models of governance and sharing resources, a competition between centralized and localized (what Wickham calls "cellular") nodes of power and the various ways that rulers and those they ruled dealt with each other.

Throughout the era, the legitimacy of rulers ultimately flowed from public assemblies, a tradition inherited from Rome that manifested in aristocratic courts and the church's leadership (bishops, etc.) and eventually, in parliaments. This tension played out in the sharing of costs and resources and the general direction of the state.

As a general rule, when monarchs consolidated too much power, they engaged in catastrophically costly and doomed wars (The Hundred Years War) because they were able to override or ignore the cautious counsel of elite assemblies. Understood as a selective process of adapting to changing circumstances, this history offers us valuable lessons and templates for our future.

Once the centralized power of Rome fragmented, economic, social and political power simplified and relocalized. Trade volume shrank and trade routes vanished. Once the bureaucratic and military structures dictated by Rome collapsed, regions and localities were on their own.

Elites naturally sought out the best means to consolidate and expand their power, and residents (as a general rule, the peasantry and town-dwellers) sought to improve their own lives by reducing costs and securing access to resources.

The immense geographic, cultural, social and economic diversity of Europe was in effect freed to play out. This diversity is still evident; the European Union may have unified the European financial system, but cultural and social divisions have not dissolved.

Wickham distinguishes between two primary sources of income and wealth accessible to elites and governments: land and taxes. Collecting taxes requires an immense bureaucracy to identify and assess property owners, tenant farmers, merchants, collect duties on trade flows, etc. Taxes are the only reliable way to fund professional armies and the stupendous bureaucracy required to manage a complex centralized empire. The Byzantine Empire survived multiple rivals, invasions, etc. largely due to its competent tax collection bureaucracy, and European monarchies could only fund long, costly wars once they established tax collection bureaucracies.

Wealth from land--surplus skimmed from the labor of peasants--was adequate to fund highly localized nobility (many of which had one or two castles and a small fiefdom), but it wasn't reliable enough or large enough to support professional armies or vast centralized states.

How does this history offer a template for the next 20 years? I have long held that the dominant global forces binding the global economy are globalization and financialization. Both have greatly increased the income and wealth that nation-states can tax to fund their vast structures: military, social welfare, and bureaucracies of management, regulation and control.

I have also held that globalization and financialization became hyper-structures prone to over-extension and the diminishing returns of the S-Curve. (see chart below) Both have reversed and are now in decline, a decline that I anticipate will accelerate unpredictably and rapidly as each dynamic is centralized and tightly bound, meaning each subsystem is highly interconnected with other subsystems. Should one break, the entire system unravels.

Globalization may appear to be decentralized, but the vast majority of global trade and capital flows through a few centralized nodes, and many aspects of trade depend on a very small number of routes and suppliers. This makes global trade exquisitely sensitive to disruption should any critical supplier or node fail.

Financialization is equally centralized and tightly bound, to the absurd degree that obscure financial structures (reverse repos, etc.) can trigger cascading crises in the real-world economy.

I anticipate a global simplification of trade and finance as fragile hyper-structures collapse as the failure of subsystems cascade through the entire system. These systems have greatly accelerated extremes of wealth-income inequality by their very nature, and these vast distortions and imbalances are unsustainable. Also unsustainable is the immense expansion of the plundering of the planet's remaining resources via globalization and financialization. These dynamics will collapse under their own weight.

What will be left? Once the income and wealth that supported enormously costly nation-state governments contracts, central governments will no longer be able to fund their gargantuan systems. (States that attempt to fund their activities by printing money will only speed the collapse of their finances and thus their coherence.)

As in the post-Roman era, central authority may well continue, but its actual power and influence will be greatly reduced. Without expanding income and wealth to tax, the central state may attempt to extract most of the nation's surplus, but this stripmining of elites and commoners alike will trigger pushback and revolt.

A more sustainable response would be to offload most of the central government's financial burdens onto states, provinces, counties, etc., in effect pushing the impossible task of maintaining entitlements and promised spending on local entities.

Given the diversity of cultures, social values and economic dynamics in large nations and regions, we can anticipate a flowering of adaptations to these greatly reduced means. Some localities will favor increasing authoritarian controls, others will favor reducing authoritarian controls and ceding authority to the smallest units of public assembly.

Locales (shall we call them fiefdoms?) will divide naturally along geographic boundaries, just as fiefdoms in medieval Europe fell into natural boundaries shaped by rivers, valleys, mountain ranges, etc., and along economic and cultural borders.

This relocalization may manifest in the well-known forecasts of the US breaking into multiple regional states, or it might manifest as I suggest in a much-weakened but still influential central government ceding power to local political structures which may themselves fragment or form alliances with nearby entities with whom they share cultural and economic ties.

In other words, a churn of evolutionary adaptations can be expected. Just as there was no one post-Roman adaptation that worked equally well everywhere, we can expect there to be some adaptations of roughly equal success and many that are unsuccessful.

As individuals and households, we want to be located in successful adaptations that share our values and offer us agency, i.e. a say in public assemblies and the freedom to move and work as we see fit.

As I have outlined many times in the blog and in my books, locales that are highly dependent on long global supply chains and distant capital for their essentials will fare very poorly once those supply chains break and the capital dries up. Regions and locales that generate their own essentials (food, energy, metals, concrete, electronics, etc.), talent and capital are much more likely to generate enough resources to satisfy both local elites and the public.

As I explain in my book "Self-Reliance," we who have lived in the past 75 years of expanding production and consumption of Everything have lost touch with both the natural world that sustains us and the social and practical skills needed to endure and prosper in an era in which the engines of centralized power and wealth (globalization and financialization) decay and collapse.

Some locales will choose to foster relocalization and individual agency. Others will cling on to failing models of authoritarian control and globalization/financialization. Ironically, perhaps, the most successful regions will be prone to indulging in hubris and denial, just as the Roman elites, basking in their centuries of dominance, dismissed the "Barbarians" and clung to their delusions of grandeur even as their world fragmented around them. Those locales left behind by globalization and financialization may well offer much better opportunities for successful adaptation, relocalization and individual/household agency.

It is human nature to find reasons to dismiss the storm clouds on the horizon. We look around and find solace in the apparent strength of our institutions and economy, while ignoring their sobering dependence on unsustainable hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization.

The fragmentation, simplification and localization of the post-Imperial era offers us lessons we ignore at our peril. It's important to view these lessons not just as an academic abstraction but as a guide to your own decisions about what places are most conducive to your security and well-being. Not every locale will do equally well, and the culture of many places may not be a great match for your own values and goals. If you decide to move, sooner is better than later."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

Gerald Celente, "Ascending the Steps to Totalitarianism"

Gerald Celente, 8/1/31

"Ascending the Steps to Totalitarianism"

"In this video, trends forecaster Gerald Celente sheds light on the alarming warning signs that we should all be aware of. In today's rapidly changing world, it is crucial to recognize the signs that may indicate an erosion of our personal freedoms and democratic values."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"How It Really Is"

Oh no we haven't, not even close.

This is just beginning, and you ain't seen nothing yet, but you will...

BTO, "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet"

"In A Nation Ruled By Swine..."

“In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile - and the rest of us are f**cked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. We owe that to ourselves and our crippled self-image as something better than a nation of panicked sheep.”

- Hunter S. Thompson, “The Great Shark Hunt”

"Senate Passes $886 Billion NDAA: No Audits Necessary"

"Senate Passes $886 Billion NDAA: 

No Audits Necessary"

by Walt Zlotow 7/31/23

"President Joe wants no audit of the billions in weapons of mass Ukrainian death provided in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). His compliant Senate majority gave him every buck of the $886 billion bucks he requested to wage US exceptionalism round the world. Besides ravaging the life of millions in dozens of countries worldwide from bombs and sanctions, US foreign policy risks nuclear war with Russia and China over Ukraine and Taiwan respectively.

Republican Sen. Rand Paul’s amendment requiring audits and investigations of Ukraine aid was swamped 78-20, with all Democrats voting to keep auditors away from the weapons giveaways. They are terrified an honest investigation would reveal how billions in weapons wind up with bad actors, get destroyed as soon as they’re introduced into the killing fields, and simply raise the Ukrainian death toll that can only be eliminated by negotiations.

America’s grotesque military budget should be reported in full on every front page, instead of disappearing from public consumption like invisible ink. On cable/network news, it’s the shame of America that dare not speak its name. Every day countless Ukrainians die for US exceptionalism, and every day nuclear confrontation creeps closer."

- https://www.antiwar.com/blog/

o

Aren't you proud, Good Citizen? While our own country and society are literally disintegrating, our cities and economy collapsing before our eyes we do this... and nobody cares, nobody wants to know...

"US post-9/11 wars caused 4.5 million deaths, displaced 38-60 million people, study shows. Nearly a million of the people who lost their lives died in fighting, whereas some 3.6 to 3.7 million were indirect deaths, due to health and economic problems caused by the wars, such as diseases, malnutrition, and destruction of infrastructure. The scholars estimated that, in the countries studied, there are still today 7.6 million children under age 5 who are suffering from acute malnutrition, meaning they are “not getting enough food, literally wasting to skin and bones, putting these children at greater risk of death.”

- https://coyoteprimeblog2.blogspot.com/

o

“We have become a Nazi monster in the eyes of the whole world - a nation of bullies and bastards who would rather kill than live peacefully. We are not just Whores for power and oil, but killer whores with hate and fear in our hearts. We are human scum, and that is how history will judge us... No redeeming social value. Just whores. Get out of our way, or we’ll kill you.

Well, shit on that dumbness. George W. Bush does not speak for me or my son or my mother or my friends or the people I respect in this world. We didn’t vote for these cheap, greedy little killers who speak for America today - and we will not vote for them again, ever.

Who does vote for these dishonest shitheads? Who among us can be happy and proud of having all this innocent blood on our hands? Who are these swine? These flag-sucking half-wits who get fleeced and fooled by stupid little rich kids like George Bush?

They are the same ones who wanted to have Muhammad Ali locked up for refusing to kill gooks. They speak for all that is cruel and stupid and vicious in the American character. They are the racists and hate mongers among us - they are the Ku Klux Klan. I piss down the throats of these Nazis. And I am too old to worry about whether they like it or not. F*ck them.” - Hunter S. Thompson

And this... Col. Douglas Macgregor claims 380,000 Ukrainian solders have been killed, as well as 30,000 Russian troops, and we paid at least $150 billion for this horror, and seem absolutely determined to get us all killed in a nuclear war with Russia. THIS is who and what we are. Yeah, be real proud... That's the cold, brutal truth. Deal with it...

Bill Bonner, "Narratives of Mass Destruction"

"Narratives of Mass Destruction"

How a self-serving elite – aided by a toady press – 

sets the globalist agenda...

by Bill Bonner

"Extreme weather is becoming the new normal. All countries must respond and protect their people from the searing heat, fatal floods, storms, drought and raging fires that result."

~ UN Chief Antonio Guterres

Poitou, France - "We’re not discussing whether the war in Ukraine is a good thing…or whether we should take sides…or which side to take…nor do we know for sure whether or not the planet is heating up…whether it can be controlled…or whether it would be a good idea to try. Our mission is to try to understand how, why, and wherefore the currents of megapolitics lead us. Deep…silent…apparently irresistible…we think we can control where we are going…we think it matters what we think, whether we are for or against...we think the future (we’re talking about the future of our nation, not about our individual futures) is a matter of choice.

You can vote for a change of direction, can’t you? You can come up with reasons why you are right…facts to support your position…and persuade others to change course; isn’t that the way it works? No, it isn’t. These currents control us; we do not control them. The only proper question is: ‘where are they taking us?’

The last great crusade for the USA was its campaign to make the world safe from terrorism. With the entire world watching, then Secretary of Defense, Colin Powell, provided what was neither a fact nor an idea – but an outright lie. Iraq had ‘weapons of mass destruction,’ said he. Iraq had no such weapons. And the mass destruction in Iraq was brought in by the US.

And facts? Who wanted those? Brig. Gen. Vince Brooks made it clear that the US Army was not interested: “It just is not worth trying to characterize by numbers. And, frankly, if we are going to be honorable about our warfare, we are not out there trying to count up bodies.” Later, US military spokesman Major Brad Leighton sharpened the point: “We regret when civilians are hurt or killed while coalition forces search to rid Iraq of terrorism.” We don’t like numbers either. But if your stated goal were to kill terrorists, you’d think you would like to keep track of how many (including women and children) you had snuffed out.

Cold, Hard Facts: The war on terrorism was a disaster (there are probably more terrorists today than there were 20 years ago). Worse than that; it was a shame. Here’s the latest tally from Brown University: "US post-9/11 Wars Caused 4.5 Million Deaths, Displaced 38-60 Million People, Study Shows."

Nearly a million of the people who lost their lives died in fighting, whereas some 3.6 to 3.7 million were indirect deaths, due to health and economic problems caused by the wars, such as diseases, malnutrition, and destruction of infrastructure. The scholars estimated that, in the countries studied, there are still today 7.6 million children under age 5 who are suffering from acute malnutrition, meaning they are “not getting enough food, literally wasting to skin and bones, putting these children at greater risk of death.”

Today, terrorists are barely given a nod in the press. Now we have a new crusade. Global warming is on every page…on every pair of lips…and in every business plan. Here in France, it is cooler than usual. We wear sweaters…and put a quilt on the bed at night. But that is just a ‘fact’…an eyewitness observation. Turn on the news media, and we discover that we must be on a different planet. The seas are no longer hot; they are ‘boiling.’ The desert no longer suffers the summer heat; it is an ‘inferno.’ We have no more hot spells, no more heat waves, no more ‘hazy, hot, and humid’ forecasts. Now, we have the fires of Hell, fanned by five generations of fossil fuel sinners… ready to roast us all to cinders. Yes, our goose is not just cooked…it is scorched.

Unspectacularly Normal: Amid all of this end-of-the-world…ism, you were probably surprised to find – in colleague Joel Bowman’s weekend report – that the summer, 2023, so far, has not been particularly hot at all: "Current temperatures across the UK and Ireland are unseasonably cool, according to the Met Office, with London a fresh 66...and Dublin a rainy old 60. Over on the continent, it’s... well, summer. Berlin is 73... Paris 69... Budapest 70... Prague 68... Vienna 62... Florence 84... Moscow 73... Krakow 75... Of the 50 European capitals, the average temperature today... during the “hottest July on record”... is a searing, sweltering, blood-boiling...76.1 fahrenheit.

In the United States, the summer so far (June 1 - July 19, 2023) across the Lower 48 states has seen unspectacularly normal temperatures of a mere +0.07°C above average. Readers along the mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas and the Ohio Valley are no doubt enjoying the relatively unextreme weather. Same for the Pacific Northwest. And the Northeast. And along the Prairies. And the Rockies. Sea to shining sea, as it were... and practically anywhere that is not Phoenix, Arizona... which was virtually uninhabitable before the advent of air conditioning anyway. Death Valley, too, has been pretty hot. Who woulda thunk?

But what about all these “extreme heat waves” we’re hearing about? Perhaps some perspective might come in handy. The folks over at the EPA (the Environmental Protection Agency...that bastion of racist, transphobic, right-wing climate deniers) provide the US Annual Heat Wave Index going back 120+ years.

What the Annual Heat Wave Index shows is that the media is either mistaken…or lying. It turns out, the new normal is the old normal. So far, the summer of 2023 looks much like any other summer. It is hot in Las Vegas…and cool in Dublin.

There were no Weapons of Mass Destruction. But that didn’t stop mass mayhem…as wrought by the US military. There may not be any real facts that support the Global Warming Hypothesis either. But our guess is that that small inconvenience will not prevent the destruction ahead. We’ve been promising to explain why. Stay tuned…"

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"A Simple Choice..."

"It comes down to a simple choice, really. 

Get busy living or get busy dying."

- "Andy Dufresne", "Shawshank Redemption"

Dan, I Allegedly, "People Can’t Afford Their Homes"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly 8/1/23

"People Can’t Afford Their Homes"

"A record number of people are house poor. That means that over 30% of their income goes just to the house payment. more hotels, and shopping malls are going back to the Lenders. It’s begun."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Massive Price Increases At Meijer! This Is Getting Out Of Control!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, 8/1/23

"Massive Price Increases At Meijer!

 This Is Getting Out Of Control!"

"In today's video, we are at Meijer and are noticing some massive price increases on many grocery items. This is getting out of control as many supermarket prices continue to skyrocket. It's getting rough out here as many families are struggling to put food on the table!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com