"The Economy Is Crashing Even Faster Than A Lot Of The Experts Had Anticipated"

"The Economy Is Crashing Even Faster 

Than A Lot Of The Experts Had Anticipated"

By Michael Snyder

"It’s happening. Throughout 2021 and 2022, a whole host of experts were warning that we were going to see another economic crisis like we witnessed in 2008 and 2009, and now it is here. In fact, it is unfolding at a pace that is even more rapid than most of the experts had anticipated. The housing market is crashing, hordes of retail stores are closing, the commercial real estate market is headed for a colossal disaster, food prices continue to surge, and the worst wave of layoffs in more than a decade just continues to get even worse. So many of the economic trends that I have been tracking on The Economic Collapse Blog are now reaching a crescendo, but most Americans still don’t understand how bad things will eventually become.

On Tuesday, we learned that existing home sales in the United States have now fallen for 12 months in a row…"U.S. existing home sales slowed for the 12th consecutive month in January as high mortgage rates, surging inflation and steep home prices sapped consumer demand from the housing market. Sales of previously owned homes tumbled 0.7% in January from the prior month to an annual rate of 4 million units, according to new data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On an annual basis, existing home sales are down 36.9% when compared with January 2021."

It is the slowest pace since November 2010, when the U.S. was still in the throes of the housing crisis triggered by subprime mortgage defaults. Just think about these numbers for a moment. Existing home sales have dropped every single month for an entire year. That is catastrophic. Overall, existing home sales are a whopping 36.9 percent lower than they were at this time last year. We haven’t seen anything like this since the last housing crash.

Meanwhile, rapidly rising interest rates and the work at home trend that began during the pandemic have combined to create a giant mess for the commercial real estate industry. At this point, projects are starting to fail at a furious pace…"The giant investment manager Brookfield Asset Management recently defaulted on a total of over $750 million in debt for a pair of 52-story towers in Los Angeles, according to a February securities filing. Real-estate firm RXR is in talks with creditors to restructure debt on 61 Broadway, a 34-story tower in Manhattan’s financial district, according to people familiar with the matter. Handing over the building to the lender is among the options under consideration, these people said."

In another sign of distress, a venture of an investment manager affiliated with Related Cos. and BentallGreenOak is in similar debt-restructuring talks over a $150 million warehouse-to-office conversion project in Long Island City, N.Y., that hasn’t filled up as much space as expected, according to people familiar with the matter.

Sadly, this is just the tip of the iceberg. As I discussed the other day, I believe that we will eventually see the worst commercial real estate crisis in the entire history of our nation.

Of course the whole economy is moving into very troubled times. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now dropped lower in each of the past ten months. The last time we witnessed a streak of this magnitude was in 2008. Even Walmart and Home Depot are acknowledging that a very challenging economic environment is in front of us, and bleak forecasts from both companies helped to spark another round of panic selling on Wall Street…"US stocks plunged on Tuesday after fourth-quarter earnings and forecasts from mega-retailers like Walmart and Home Depot raised concerns about the strength of the US consumer. The Dow and S&P 500 each closed with their worst day since December 15 – the Dow fell about 696 points, or 2.1%, while the S&P dropped by 2%. The Nasdaq Composite closed 2.5% lower."

Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, so a slowdown could weigh on growth and even send the United States into a recession. As economic activity slows down, major retailers are closing hundreds of locations all over the country…"America is bracing for a mass exodus of retail stores across the nation this year, with more than 800 big box locations set to close from California to New York. Among the iconic names to announce they are downsizing includes Bed Bath & Beyond, Walmart, Gap and Party City. At least 803 stores are set to be shuttered over the rest of 2023, with many forced into desperate cost cutting measures amid rampant inflation and declining bottom lines."

Sadly, there will be more. A lot more. Needless to say, a lot more layoffs are coming too. In fact, we just learned that McKinsey & Co “plans to eliminate about 2,000 jobs”…"McKinsey & Co. plans to eliminate about 2,000 jobs, one of the consulting giant’s biggest rounds of cuts ever.  The firm known for devising staff-reduction plans for its clients is taking the ax to some of its own, with the move expected to focus on support staff in roles that don’t have direct contact with clients, according to people with knowledge of the matter."

So many people are going to lose their jobs in the months ahead. The tech industry is supposed to be one of the backbones of our economy, but they have been laying off workers faster than almost any other sector. And the numbers tell us that the pace of tech layoffs in 2023 is already way ahead of last year. If you do not have a job right now, I would recommend grabbing one while you still can. And if you do have a job that you value, I would try to hold on to it as hard as you can.

These are the times that we have been warned about, and eventually economic conditions will be even worse than they were in 2008 and 2009. Those running our economy were able to keep things propped up for quite a while by pushing interest rates all the way to the floor and by flooding our system with mountains of fresh money. But in the process they created a tremendous amount of inflation, and meanwhile our long-term economic problems just continued to get even worse. Now a day of reckoning has arrived, and our leaders are all out of solutions."

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! Stock Up Now! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, 2/22/23:

"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! Stock Up Now! What's Next?"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Bill Bonner, "On Quality"

"On Quality"

Plus, fibbing GDP numbers, F-35 flops and half 

a century repose on a small, Greek island...

By Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Salta, Argentina - “There’s only one law that works in Argentina, the law of gravity.” Investors are still trying to make sense of it. If inflation is going away…why is the Fed threatening more rate increases? And if the economy is so great, why are wages and corporate profits slipping? Fox News: "The Fed’s been trying to put the brakes on, and it doesn’t look like the brakes are getting much traction," [Larry Summers] said."

Summers has a point. Inflation is easing…but not much. And debt is still going up. In other words, so far, the Fed has failed to turn the ship around. And it’s still taking on water. Here’s the latest from USA Today: "US credit card debt hit a record high as inflation leaves consumers financially stressed." "The latest data is a major reversal from two years ago when Americans were rapidly paying off credit card debt with stimulus money they received. And at the same time, they weren't taking on more debt to pay for big-ticket expenses such as vacations because of the pandemic."

Real Mischief: Additional debt means that additional money has been put in the system. More money in circulation means more inflation. Remember, it is borrowing that brings new money into existence. The money only disappears when the debt is paid. Or not paid and written off. Meanwhile, higher prices and lower real wages do their mischief. Here’s another tell-tale item from The Wall Street Journal: "Some 9.3% of auto loans extended to people with low credit scores were 30 or more days behind on payments at the end of last year, the highest share since 2010, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics."

But wait. These are just numbers. And here in Argentina, for example, the numbers are almost all bad. But the quality of life can still be very high. Quality is different from statistics. The statistics tell us that more cars are being repossessed. But first, the Repo man comes for the unemployed guy’s car. Then, he comes for your neighbor’s car. So what? It doesn’t really matter until the Repo man drives off in your car. That’s quality.

We’re reaching for a point, here. But we’re not sure what it is…so we will stretch out our arms and see what we can grab.

Time After Time: A few years ago, we saw an interesting story in The New York Times. A man in Chicago, a recent immigrant from Greece, was diagnosed with terminal cancer. He decided to go home to die. So, he moved back in with his parents on a small Greek island. To fill the time, he began working in his garden. Gradually, he felt stronger, and worked more and more. And then, in the evening, he got together with his neighbors at the local bar. They drank wine and danced. Time went by. And he didn’t die; he lived for almost another 50 years.

This was altogether good news to him. But it was bad news to the US GDP. No heroic efforts to save him; the medical system earned nothing from him. No funeral was held. No flowers were bought. No wake was held. No hearse was hired. No casket was bought. No grave was dug and no lawyer got to read the will to the bereaved relatives. All in all, it was a very disappointing time for US GDP.

But thank God for the F-35. Odometer reports: "At a whopping $1.7 trillion, America’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is the most expensive weapon in human history. The highly advanced vertical take-off and landing aircraft was supposed to be the low-cost fighter of the future. But after numerous delays, costly overbudgeting, and international partners dropping out, the price tag of the plane has only ballooned. Things got especially bad when in 2015 the 5th Gen fighter lost in numerous dogfights to older F-16 and F-15 fighter jets."

The Cost of War: The cost of the F-35 program is now estimated – if all goes well – at about the same as Canada’s GDP…including all its new houses, its salaries, its government spending and maple syrup consumption. That money, in Canada, keeps people warm, fed, housed and entertained. Is it really equal to the value of a misbegotten fighter plane? GDP tells when the economy is ‘growing’ or when it is in ‘recession.’ If the F-35 were canceled, GDP would take a hit. Would we be worse off?

Numbers don’t fib intentionally. A 3 is fairly reliable. You can even trust a 5 most of the time. But put them into a BLS formula and they become a Congressman. Then, all the prime numbers, and all that are derived from them, become liars. Especially when they have decimals in them. More to come…"

Joel’s Note: "Speaking of quality… over the weekend we promised dear readers/listeners a full transcript of the latest Fatal Conceits podcast episode, which we recorded last week with long-time friend of Bonner Private Research, Mr. Byron King. We talk shadow Russian tanker fleets… where to next for gold… BRICS nations and the trend toward de-dollarization… potential war in the South China Sea… and plenty more during our hour-long discussion.

In case you missed it the first time around, you can listen in here… or read the complete transcript (just added under the recording, along with one of Byron’s essays, also promised in the episode, titled: "Gaming America’s Next War"). There’s plenty of material in there to help you while away the breezy afternoons as you’re relaxing, stress-free, on your small Greek Island…"

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"Is The End Of The Road Nearly At Hand?"

"Is The End Of The Road Nearly At Hand?"

By John Wilder

"Pa Wilder was a banker, and when we communicated via a while back, I’d send him long-ish messages about most everything. One time, I broached the economy with him. As a small farm banker with more than 50 years of experience, he was familiar with the way the system worked.

When I first heard that the Federal Reserve™ wasn’t owned by the government, but by the member banks, I asked him. I figured he’d tell me, “Nah, John, it’s really owned by the government, aliens aren’t real, go back to sleep – we won the war.” Nope. He then went through how each member bank was required to buy stock in the regional Federal Reserve Banks (as I recall) with at least 6% of their deposits.

Whoa. His bank owned a tiny part of the Federal Reserve Bank®. Certainly not much, but part of it. The Federal Reserve Bank© is a private institution. It was the 1913 mechanism to get the politicians out of the economy. The Great Depression shows how well it worked.

After World War II, there was a time of relative stability – Europe and Japan were shattered, and the United States had industry that was just waiting to stop making weapons and start making washers. The sudden influx of labor with the demobilizing G.I.s made a combination for economic growth. After they drank the bars dry and made a zillion babies.

Even with the added costs of Social Security, it worked. The economy was working so well that we could build an interstate highway system without breaking a sweat. The highway system even added to the economic boom by lowering the cost and time required to move goods, effectively shrinking the country.

However, every good party has to end. Johnson’s Great Society and financing for the Vietnam War out of “money we just made up” caused Nixon to end the last tether between gold and the dollar. Sure, the Fed® had been cheating about the amount of cash it had been printing, but when the bluff was called, Nixon had the option of sending all our gold to France or saying “just kidding”.

He chose the latter. I think it was a good idea, because it wasn’t like France was going to do anything about it, anyway. The result was the petrodollar – the idea that all international transactions in oil would take place in dollars. That also resulted in almost all transactions taking place in the dollar. The inflation of the 1970s was the result – it was before we figured out how to tax the world by printing dollars in a sorta responsible way.

So, people all over the world needed dollars, even though we were printing them like we were, well, the Fed™. As long as the Soviet Union existed, there was a counterbalance to the United States, so at least there was some check. But after they went tango uniform? That’s when the responsibility completely ended, the cash was printed, and the instability really started.

The Dotcom Bubble was the first – fed by cash from the Fed® with no place to go. And then it tanked. So the Fed™ printed a few trillion bucks. That led directly to . . .

The Housing Bubble. You probably have heard of it. But this was different – it actually lead to protests against the banks. A reprogramming was necessary – “put the bankers in jail” had to be stopped, because bankers like to use our money to buy themselves nice things like that tiny part of France where they don’t let Muslims in. Except the Saudis.

A reprogramming was needed – Occupy Wall Street™ had to turn to...something. That reprogramming of the Lefty rank and file was into “white people are awful” and it got the heat away from the bankers. And made movies suck.

Meanwhile, the money hijinks led to country after country having revolutions, from Libya to Egypt to Syria. Why? Because inflation in the United States (at that point) meant that people had to pay a nickel more for Cheetos®. In Egypt, that meant that one of the children had to be sold into medical experimentation.

The key to all of this was keeping the dollar as the key currency used in international transactions. To be clear, Russia was a big threat in this. Sure, Russia is ruled by corrupt folks who kill people who threaten them, but I can raise you a Jeff Epstein, a Hunter Biden, and Hillary.

The Russians certainly threatened all of this with Nordstream® and Nordstream II©. These pipelines pushed natural gas straight from Russia to Europe. Now, Russia could take euros for gas. Dollar not required. And scary. All the investment of the Left in Green Energy® led them to shut down nuclear power plants (Germany, I’m looking at you) and replace them with natural gas plants. And you see the results. (hint: Ukraine and certain underwater explosions.)

Now we find that we have a currency that’s becoming worth less every day, foreign folks are building ways to not take the dollar. So they need fewer of them. And want fewer of them in their pockets.

It doesn’t help that we’re in debt by (spins wheel) over $32 trillion bucks, the economy is distorted, and that Medicare® and Medicaid™ will soon cost more than Joe Biden’s hair plugs. And we’re going to double that in the next eight years, and double it again in the next eight. That’s $100 trillion dollars. Does anyone reading this believe we can last that long?

Pa Wilder said 20 years ago that he didn’t see how it could last. But many folks have gone broke by betting against the Fed™. That one day they can’t paper it all over? Nah. Don’t worry. It’ll be fine."

- https://wilderwealthywise.com/

Greg Hunter, "Neocons Need War Because Monetary System Collapsing"

"Neocons Need War Because

 Monetary System Collapsing"

by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong said at the end of last year the U.S. is being set up for a “nightmare fall.” Train derailments and political problems are spinning out of control, but the biggest threat is war. Armstrong explains, “They want a war, but they also need it because the monetary system is collapsing. You have had interest rates at negative since 2014. So, suddenly interest rates are rising. Any bond owned by any institution in Europe is a loser. They have lost so much money, it’s incredible. What happens? Nobody is interested in long term debt – period. If you have interest rates rising, and rates are going to be going up because the Fed cannot stop this kind of inflation. Then, you got war. You have untold billions of dollars being shipped into Ukraine which is absurd. This is what you have. 

You also have to look at what Janet Yellen said, and she was concerned with the tons of new debt coming out. You are exceeding the balance sheets of the Primary Dealers. To be a Primary dealer you have to be able to guarantee you will be able to buy X amount of debt. If you can’t sell it, what happens? The bank is stuck with the debt, and then, they go bust. So, we have a real problem here. They cannot continue to issue this kind of debt in perpetuity. They have been borrowing money since WWII with no intention of paying anything off. The Fed is independent, and they don’t want the long term debt. They have been moving towards the short end of the curve. How do you continue to fund a government if there are no buyers for the debt? This is on a global scale.”

So, war checks all the boxes? Armstrong says, “Absolutely. They get to default on all this debt which is the real objective. That’s why (Klaus) Schwab is out there saying you’ll own nothing and be happy. He’s trying to make it sound like they are doing this for you. We are going to default on all debt and relive you of all your debt. This is because they are going to wipe out everything. Pension funds will be all gone. That’s why they are coming out with guaranteed basic income to replace your pension. They’ve got this all worked out. That’s what the end goal is here because they cannot continue to function this way. They cannot continue to borrow whatever they need with no intention of ever paying it back.”

Armstrong reveals why the 2024 elections may not happen. Can the Deep State commit enough voter fraud to keep Biden and the rest of the Neocons in power? Armstrong says most of what is happening today is the fault of the Neocons, and they have control of both parties. Armstrong points out Democrat Hillary Clinton paid for the phony Trump/Russia dossier, and Republican John McCain delivered it to the FBI. Armstrong calls it the “Uni-party,” and goes deep on the problems the Neocons are causing on purpose.

Armstrong also talks about the dollar, gold, civil unrest, tangible assets and the Ukraine war. Armstrong’s sources say the real number of casualties of Ukraine Army stands at a whopping 250,000 dead. Armstrong says Russia is NOT losing the war. It is winning." There is much more in the 47-minute interview.

- https://usawatchdog.com/

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the upcoming new book “The Rise of the Neocons.”

- https://rumble.com/

"Alert! Russia Summons US Ambassador; Nuclear Tests To Begin; China "Joins Forces"; Hell Broke Loose"

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 2/21/23:

"Alert! Russia Summons US Ambassador; 

Nuclear Tests To Begin; China "Joins Forces"; Hell Broke Loose"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Judge Napolitano, "Ukraine Russia War - One Year in Col. Doug Macgregor"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 2/21/23:

"Ukraine Russia War - One Year in Col. Doug Macgregor"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Commercial Real Estate Collapse Trigger 80% Loss In Property Value & Enormous Surge Of Bankruptcies"

Full screen recommended.

"Commercial Real Estate Collapse Trigger 80% Loss

 In Property Value & Enormous Surge Of Bankruptcies"

by Epic Economist

"A cataclysmic commercial real estate collapse is happening in plain sight and no one seems to be talking about it. We’ve just recorded the biggest month-over-month property value drop since the global financial crisis. The sector is facing an increasingly dire situation fueled by weakening demand, record storefront vacancies, a shift to remote working, and souring credit conditions. Experts say that the slump in the world’s biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, and now a flood of distressed loans can result in an 84% value destruction and unleash serious turmoil all across the U.S. economy.

A recent study by NYU scholars is using the word “apocalyptic” to describe the crisis that is now unfolding before our eyes. By analyzing data provided by research firm Green Street, commercial property prices have already dropped by 13% in 2023, the largest monthly decline since it began tracking this data in 2007, in the run-up to the global financial crisis. NYU professor Arpit Gupta and his team point to a looming “commercial real estate apocalypse,” with office prices declining 84% in less than five years. Since 2020, commercial property values have fallen by 45%, and according to their projections, another 39% collapse is going to take place by 2025. That represents a “$453 billion value destruction”.

Moody’s Analytics documented that Securities backed by commercial mortgages saw “a huge spike in elevated delinquency rates” in the past quarter. “What we have in this downturn is a fairly unique set of economic circumstances. Interest rates are tightening instead of softening the blow for real estate and other corporates,” said Ian Guthrie, a senior managing director at the loan advisory team at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., a real estate broker. The Federal Reserve has already hiked interest rates seven times, and it’s not finished yet, which means that the environment for borrowers and lenders is expected to deteriorate even further as the months go by.

Right now, one of the biggest risks in commercial real estate is older and less desirable office and retail space. New reports indicate that private equity investors are walking away from the sector due to rising uncertainty about the future of commercial properties amid raging inflation and construction and financing costs during the recession.

Almost $175 billion of real estate credit is already distressed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the moment, about one in 10 corporate loans in the U.S. is already underperforming and showing increased credit risk, Bank of America reported. The combined meltdown of both commercial and residential real estate is unprecedented in all of U.S. history. The amount of wealth that can be wiped out from the system can reach the trillions before this is all over.

We are in for a very rough ride, and we have very limited alternatives. The resilience of U.S. businesses and consumers is at stake, and while thousands upon thousands of companies can disappear in that process, Americans can lose everything they have ever fought for. This is not just a housing and commercial real estate collapse. This is a reflection of a broken economy and a decaying society. While the sector’s apocalypse looms over us, now more than ever, we need to keep one eye on the danger."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"We Are In A Major Crisis, Stop Ignoring It; Economy Headed For Hell; Walmart Prepares or Slowdown"

Jeremiah Babe, 2/21/23:

"We Are In A Major Crisis, Stop Ignoring It; 

Economy Headed For Hell; Walmart Prepares or Slowdown"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Tron Syversen, “Moonlight Reflections”

Full screen recommended.

Tron Syversen, “Moonlight Reflections”

Musical Interlude:The Rolling Stones, "If I Was A Dancer (Dance Pt. 2)"

The Rolling Stones, 

"If I Was A Dancer (Dance Pt. 2)"

Turn it up! lol

Attitude. In Philly, pronounced at-tee-tood...

- CP

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Large galaxies and faint nebulae highlight this deep image of the M81 Group of galaxies. First and foremost in the wide-angle 12-hour exposure is the grand design spiral galaxy M81, the largest galaxy visible in the image. M81 is gravitationally interacting with M82 just below it, a big galaxy with an unusual halo of filamentary red-glowing gas.

Around the image many other galaxies from the M81 Group of galaxies can be seen. Together with other galaxy congregates including our Local Group of galaxies and the Virgo Cluster of galaxies, the M81 Group is part of the expansive Virgo Supercluster of Galaxies. This whole galaxy menagerie is seen through the faint glow of an Integrated Flux Nebula, a little studied complex of diffuse gas and dust clouds in our Milky Way Galaxy."

- http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap080512.html

Chet Raymo, “Not Known, Because Not Looked For”

“Not Known, Because Not Looked For”

by Chet Raymo

“A reader shared with us those well-known lines of T. S. Eliot (“Little Gidding”). It is not quite what Eliot is up to, but I was reminded of some lines of Pascal that I shared here several years ago: “Scientific learning is composed of two opposites which nonetheless meet each other. The first is the natural ignorance that is man’s lot at birth. The second is represented by those great minds that have investigated all knowledge accumulated by man only to discover at the end that in fact they know nothing. Thus they return to the same fundamental ignorance they had thought to leave. Yet this ignorance they have now discovered is an intellectual achievement. It is those who have departed from their original condition of ignorance but have been incapable of completing the full cycle of learning who offer us a smattering of scientific knowledge and pass sweeping judgments. These are the mischief makers, the false prophets.” (“Pensees” V:327)

It took almost three centuries for Pascal’s remarkable insight to become the common opinion of scientists. The 20th-century philosopher Karl Popper expressed it this way: “The more we learn about the world, and the deeper our learning, the more conscious, specific, and articulate will be our knowledge of what we do not know, our knowledge of our ignorance. For this, indeed, is the main source of our ignorance- the fact that our knowledge can be only finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.”

It is an odd, unsettling thought that the culmination of the scientific quest- the long slow gathering of reliable empirical knowledge of the world- should be confirmation of how little we understand about the universe we live in. A willingness to say “I don’t know” is a prerequisite of scientific discovery. Only in the silence of acknowledged ignorance can we hear - half hear - the thing that calls us to attend.

Click image for larger size.

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

"The Story Of Man..."

“The sands of time blew into a storm of images... images in sequence to tell the truth! Glorious legends of revolutionaries, bound only by a desire to be true to themselves, and to hope! Parables of colliding worlds, of forbidden love, of enemies healing the wounds of circumstance! Projected myth of persecution through greed and selfishness... and the will to survive! The Will to survive! And to survive in the face of those who claim credit for your very existence! We survive not as pawns, but as agents of hope. Sometimes misunderstood, but always true to our story. The story of Man."

- Scott Morse

Vangelis, "Alpha"

This song always suggested the image of our relentless, idealized, noble, glorious March of Mankind through the ages. Despite it all, despite ourselves, we survive and march onward towards our unknown destiny.

Still, some wonder about our true nature as a species, as the Apex Predator of this planet, as Sir Arthur Conan Doyle did when he asked,“What can we know? What are we all? Poor silly half-brained things peering out at the infinite, with the aspirations of angels and the instincts of beasts.”

Indeed, Angelic aspirations regardless, the historical record suggests a less benevolent but far more accurate and truthful view of the instincts of beasts within Humanity...

Steve Cutts, "MAN"

“What a chimera then is man, what a novelty, what a monster, what chaos, what a subject of contradiction, what a prodigy! Judge of all things, yet an imbecile earthworm; depository of truth, yet a sewer of uncertainty and error; pride and refuse of the universe. Who shall resolve this tangle?”

- Blaise Pascal

"Pride and refuse," indeed...

The Poet: W.H. Auden, "September 1, 1939"

 "September 1, 1939"

"Defenseless

under the night

Our world in stupor lies;

Yet, dotted everywhere,

Ironic points of light

Flash out

wherever the Just

Exchange their messages:

May I, composed like them

Of Eros and of dust,

Beleaguered by the same

Negation and despair,

Show an affirming flame."

- W.H. Auden

On September 1, 1939 Nazi Germany invaded Poland. 

You know the rest...

Bill Bonner, "Capitalism has Failed"

"Capitalism has Failed"

Plus, dinner in Palermo, music by Piazzolla,

 libations from Piattelli and plenty more...

by Bill Bonner And Joel Bowman

Salta, Argentina - "Observations from South of the Rio de la Plata…leading to observations about things north of the Rio Grande…

One of the first lessons from a wrecked economy with a 99% inflation rate is that…it’s not so bad. People still eat…smile…wear fashionable clothes…enjoy music and read books. Yes, of course, government policies are idiotic. Corruption is widespread. And everyone, trundling along on the road to ruin, gets poorer. But they don’t necessarily have a bad time.

Red Hot Pesos: There are cars and trucks on the road here, belching smoke, mufflers and bumpers falling off, that would never be permitted in a healthy economy. People live in ‘favelas’ – slums, where the houses are improvised, temporary, and unfinished. There are trash pickers, cartoneros, who survive by reselling cardboard and eating the food that has been thrown away. And many things are remarkably cheap.

It is this last feature that helps to make life agreeable. Nice apartments rent for only a half to a third as much as in the US. A cook or housekeeper, full time, costs only $100 a month. A trip across Buenos Aires costs about 1,000 pesos – or $2.50. And fuel, too, is only a fraction of the price in the US or Europe. A gallon of gas is about $1.50.

Last night, we went out to dinner in our old neighborhood, Palermo Soho. We hadn’t seen it in a couple years. But things change fast in Buenos Aires. The streets were full of people – people going to bars and restaurants…shoppers or just people out for a walk. “You have to understand,” says a friend. “People want to spend their money. Nobody saves it.”

We barely recognized the old neighborhood. The shops had changed, with new bars, restaurants, shoe stores and fashion shops on every street corner. It was bigger, with more people….and more things to do… than we recalled.

Biting the Hand that Feeds: It also seemed more woke…more ‘leftist’…and more activist. Socialism has become a fashion statement. One restaurant had a neon sign, for example, that proclaimed that “Capitalism is a failure.” Pictures of Che Guevara were almost everywhere.

We walked down the cobblestoned streets to the corner of Guruchaga and Cabrera. There, we found our favorite restaurant, the Lo de Jesus. But that too had changed. It used to be a small, corner eatery with local customers and a simple Argentine menu. But now it has spread out into the street, serving hundreds of meals – to tourists. It has become one of the city’s popular go-to restaurants. A large group of Americans sat at the table behind us. All in the 20s or 30s, most were rather nerdy looking; we guessed that they worked for Google or Facebook.

A street musician came by. A short man, dressed in black, with a white fedora, he pulled out his guitar. We feared the worst – that he would be screeching out popular tunes as we tried to talk. But we were happily surprised. He was a concert-level guitarist playing our favorite tango music – Por una Cabeza, El Dia Que Me Quieras…and a marvelous tune by Piazzolla which requires a remarkable level of skill to perform. Other diners recognized his talent too. When he was finished he was showered with 1,000 peso bills.

Disappointed by the changes in the restaurant, we were nevertheless impressed by the food – it was almost as good as ever. We ordered an elaborate selection of starters – dried ham, blood sausage, salads. These were followed by steaks, with vegetables…and 2 bottles of Piattelli wine (there were 5 of us).

We should tell you something about Piattelli. It is a winery in the Calchaqui Valley that is owned by a family from Montana. They invested a fortune creating one of the best “bodegas” (wineries) in the valley. The restaurant was superb when we went there a couple of years ago. The wine is excellent too.

The meal concluded, the check arrived. Oh no…it was for 100,000 pesos. Our first reaction was shock. We are still adapting to the monetary system. Then, we did the math. Dividing by the black market rate, the whole thing came to about $53 per person. In a non-tourist restaurant, the same meal might be half as much.

The Other Half: But numbers never tell the whole story. They leave out the most important parts. There is the price of food, but there is also the taste of it. Who puts a price on a kiss? Who calculates the value of a kind word? Who charges for the sunrise?

There are averages, but nobody lives the average life. People live in their own particular world, with a quality all its own. And the quality of a place, too, is often missed by the numbers. Stalin noted that ‘one death is a tragedy; a thousand deaths is a statistic.’ And that is the problem with Stalin’s world. It was a world of tragedies – millions of them. The misery was recorded in memories and memoirs, but not in the statistics.

That is what makes fraudsters out of world improvers, activists and central planners everywhere. They have numbers. They have statistics. But they don’t know what they’re talking about.

Here at Bonner Private Research, as long-term sufferers know, we don’t trust numbers – at least not those used to justify public policies. That’s why we rarely provide a forecast, estimate or calculation without a qualifier: “about” or “around.” Because the numbers seldom tell the truth. And the more precise the number, the bigger the lie behind it. Unpack the math – even our own – and you find assumptions, adjustments, and enough statistical wiggle for an earthworm farm. We don’t trust any number or any fact – even those we make up ourselves. So, tune in tomorrow. We’ll look at the biggest scam in statistics – GDP – and the latest fraudulent numbers from the Congressional Budget Office."

"Hasta manana."

o

Joel’s Note: Readers may recall the hoary adage, “it could never happen here!” You hear it whenever tales of woe from some far-flung “sh!thole” bubble to the surface of polite conversation. War in a foreign land… currency debasement in a distant country… rigged elections, brawls in parliament, suppression of basic rights, like freedom of speech or movement or right to a fair trial… always happening “over there.”

And yet… in the mid 20th Century, “to be rich like an Argentine” was another line people used to use… only, without irony. The “Paris of the South” was among the wealthiest metropolitan capitals on the planet. When Ayn Rand was looking for a bazillionare playboy for her Atlas Shrugged novel, she created Francisco d'Anconia, owner by inheritance of the world's largest copper mining operation… and the very caricature of a rich, polo-playing Argentine businessman.

It must have seemed to the denizens of the bustling city, back in the 1950s, that their standard of living would last forever. A yet, an unhurried stroll along the city’s broad avenidas and cobblestone calles, lined with umbrageous jacarandas and neo-classical mansions, many now fallen into dreary disrepair, reminds us that nothing lasts forever…That goes for political standing and economic vitality north of the Rio Grande just as it does south of the Rio de la Plata.

Last week, the US Treasury Department Issued its Financial Report of the United States Government for 2022. It was… concerning. As usual, Bonner Private Research’s macro analyst, Dan Denning, was hard on the case from his bolthole up in Laramie, WY.

"The government had a 'negative' net position of $34.1 trillion last year. Total liabilities were $39 trillion ($24 trillion marketable public debt plus almost $13 trillion federal pension and veteran benefits). Debt-to-GDP would reach 566% by 2097, based on 'current policy and the report's assumptions.' The report describes that level as 'unsustainable.'

Lastly, the present value of future social security and medicare spending is expected to exceed receipts for that spending by $75.9 trillion over the next 75 years. I believe that's what we call 'unfunded' liabilities."

Hmm… seventy-five years may seem like a long time. Surely it will be someone else's problem by then, right Dan? “Wrong. It will be a bigger problem a lot sooner.” Dan notes that, while some inflation may be “good” for reducing the real value of government debt (through financial repression), “if deficits grow faster than the decrease in real debt from inflation, you negate the benefit. And if the Fed obeys the Taylor Rule and pushes nominal yields above inflation, debtors get crucified.

“In America, we are all debtors.” What does that mean for households already struggling under rising (and still rising) mortgage rates… stubbornly non-transient consumer price inflation… and a worsening economic outlook? Financial ruin: It really can happen here..."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

The Daily "Near You?"

Big Rapids, Michigan, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"What If A Nuclear Bomb Hits New York Tomorrow"

Full screen recommended.

"What If A Nuclear Bomb Hits New York Tomorrow"

"The famous Doomsday clock shows 100 seconds before the Apocalypse. And it won’t happen because of some higher power but upon the initiative of a human being. We’ve never come so close to the edge of the abyss - nuclear war. One more step and the history of mankind is over. And unfortunately, current world problems, personal ambitions of some politicians, and a lack of desire to seek compromises between governments can make this last fatal step real. And then, the Earth will face the third world nuclear war, in which there will be no winners. Imagine that someone pressed the red button and nuclear missiles got in the air. We will show you that humanity would stand no chance."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

A terrifying must-view!

"2/20/23: Russia is Going to War Tomorrow"

"2/20/23: Russia is Going to War Tomorrow"

By Chris Black

"TL;DR: People just don’t want to hear it, but so far, this is not a war (the Ukraine situation). From a legal point of view (for Russia), it’s a special operation with a limited reach in regards to personnel, logistics and capacity. If war is formally declared, Russia goes all-in and the Ukraine will basically be over with within a few days or so.

Now, here’s the deal: rumors are circulating on Russian telegram channels about the speech scheduled for tomorrow by president Putin, and unknown leakers from the Kremlin have confirmed these points:

– Russia will officially send an application for the annexation of Crimea and Donbass in the Russian Federation to the UN; if refused Russia will declare war on Ukraine with the objective of dissolving its government and its military at all costs, with the full employment of all its arsenal and the targeting of decision making centers.

– An immediate warning will be sent to every Ukrainian, urging all civilians to escape the country and all military personnel to defect or surrender, they will have a week (some say a month) to do so after which everyone remaining will be treated as a combatant.

– Strikes and bombardments will be announced a day in advance to allow evacuation of remaining civilians, they’re trying to do this the “moral way”, but the main objective remains the complete obliteration of Ukraine by all means, except nuclear.

The reasoning behind this development is being described as such:

– Russia doesn’t see its special military operation as a war, but as an intervention and humanitarian operation into the Ukrainian civil war.

– They would be comfortable with this situation if Ukraine didn’t receive weapons and support from NATO, they are fine with having an impoverished Ukraine trying to retake these territories as they believe it to be a non-threat, but with western help this escalates to a matter of national security

– The only way to avoid a nuclear war with the west and resolve the situation is to take control of all of Ukraine’s territory so that weapon deliveries can’t happen anymore, and the decapitation of its regime that invites those weapon shipments.

– The end goal is either annexation or federalization of Ukraine with a temporary government.

Not going to lie, all this sounds like the LARP of the century, but we’ll see in a few days what’s what. How did it come to this, you asked? Well, stick with me and find out..."

Full article is here:

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

"The United States And Russia Are At War. You Do Realize How This Is Going To End, Don’t You?"

"The United States And Russia Are At War.

 You Do Realize How This Is Going To End, Don’t You?"

By Michael Snyder

"Joe Biden just made a surprise visit to Kyiv during which he announced that the U.S. is going to be involved for “as long as it takes” to win the war against Russia. Meanwhile, the Russians have now pulled together far more forces than they originally invaded Ukraine with a year ago. They intend to fight for “as long as it takes” too. There are no peace negotiations and there aren’t going to be any peace negotiations. Both sides are counting on the other side to eventually back down. But what happens if both sides just keep escalating matters until a “point of no return” is reached?

After we have seen countless other world leaders visit Kyiv over the past year, Joe Biden finally mustered the courage to make the trek himself, and the mainstream media is making a really big deal out of it…"The US will back Ukraine in its fight against Russia for “as long as it takes” President Joe Biden said as he made an unannounced and symbolic visit to the capital, Kyiv. “We have every confidence you’re going to continue to prevail,” he said."

Mr Biden’s first trip to Ukraine as president came days before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion. During his visit, Biden announced even more aid for Ukraine. But we have already given $196 billion dollars in aid to the Ukrainians…"According to the Ukrainian government, the U.S. leads all countries with $196 billion in total military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine between Jan. 24, 2022 through Nov. 20, 2022."

How much more will we give them during the coming year? Sadly, the truth is that we are providing far more funding for this war than anyone else, and that includes the Ukrainians. Vast armies of foreign mercenaries are being hired using our tax dollars, and those foreign mercenaries have become more critical than ever because the Ukrainians are literally running out of warm bodies to throw into the meat grinder in eastern Ukraine.

We are also providing more weapons, more equipment and more ammunition than anyone else, but the Ukrainians are blowing through the ammo even faster than we can make it…"Inside a sprawling factory just off the President Biden Expressway in downtown Scranton, Pennsylvania, the future arsenal of Ukraine’s war effort is being forged, one red hot artillery shell at a time. Running full-tilt, as it was on a recent January morning, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant churns out roughly 11,000 artillery shells a month. That may seem like a lot, but the Ukrainian military often fires that many shells over just a few days."

In addition, the U.S. military actually gives the Ukrainians the specific coordinates where Russian targets are located so that the Ukrainians can fire rockets that we have provided to them at those targets…"The Washington Post reported Thursday that Ukraine is reliant on coordinates provided or confirmed by the US and its allies to launch strikes using the US-provided HIMARS rocket systems, a revelation that demonstrates Washington’s deep involvement in the war.

The HIMARS is a precision-guided artillery system, one that Ukraine has employed quite a bit in its fight against Russia. One example is a January 1 HIMARS strike on a facility housing Russian forces in Donetsk that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers, one of the deadliest Ukrainian attacks of the war.

Citing three unnamed Ukrainian officials and one unnamed US official, the Post reported that Ukraine also relies on the US for targeting coordinates for similar precision weapons, including the M270 Multiple-Launch Rocket System. One senior Ukrainian official said that Ukrainian forces almost never launch strikes using these weapons without coordinates provided by US military personnel that are located at a military base in a different country in Europe."

This is our war now. No matter how much our politicians try to spin it, this has become a war between the United States and Russia. And it appears that the Russians are preparing to take things to a whole new level.

Right now, very large concentrations of Russian troops are poised to come pouring into Ukraine from the north…"Recently we had the first ever confirmation—with actual photographic evidence—of Russian force buildups on Ukraine’s border resembling those of pre-Feb. 2022. Here are satellite photos of one of them; there are reportedly such camps in Kursk and Voronezh regions, which are directly above Sumy and Kharkov oblasts of Ukraine.

To support those troops, the Russians are constructing “large field hospitals” near the Ukrainian border just like they did prior to the original invasion…"There are now several reports of large field hospitals being constructed in at least two different regions, again reminiscent of exactly what happened last time prior to the start of the SMO. And a senior lieutenant of the AFU stated that 10,000 Russian troops have amassed across the border from Sumy." There are also very large concentrations of Russian troops in the south.

I expect that the Russians will soon formally declare war against Ukraine, and any pretense of playing nice will finally be discarded. On the Ukrainian side, one official just made headlines all over the globe when he declared that “tanks will be parked on Moscow’s Red Square and that will be justice”…"Kyiv’s security chief vowed that Ukraine’s ‘tanks will be parked on Moscow’s Red Square and that will be justice’ ahead of the first anniversary of Putin’s invasion. Oleksiy Danilov, Kyiv’s National Security and Defence Council boss, called Vladimir Putin ‘Hitler’s twin’ as he reiterated Ukraine’s ambition to expel all Russian troops from its soil, including from Crimea which was annexed by Moscow in 2014."

I don’t know what sort of fantasy world he is living in, because the Russians would launch their nukes long before that ever happens. If push comes to shove, Russia will resort to nuclear war.

Here in the western world, our “experts” keep assuring us that the Russians would never actually do that. But the Russians keep making it very clear that they are quite serious about their threats…"Russia is attempting to use its nuclear threat to weaken international support for Ukraine, according to Kyiv intelligence. The official Ukrainian Ministry of Defence reported via Telegram that Russia has started large-scale exercises involving its strategic nuclear forces, stationed for launch by air, land and sea, and put its units on the highest alert."

In my new book I explain why the U.S. is not at all prepared for a nuclear conflict with Russia. But most Americans don’t care to listen to warnings from me or from anyone else about this. Most Americans just assume that our leaders know exactly what they are doing and that everything is going to be just fine.

Once upon a time, Barack Obama warned that we should never underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to mess things up. Now we have reached a point where there is a very real possibility that Joe Biden could get the majority of the U.S. population killed in a cataclysmic war. This isn’t going to end well, and I would urge you to prepare accordingly."

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-united-states-and-russia-are-at-war-you-do-realize-how-this-is-going-to-end-dont-you/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhjzLmhy7QQ&t=11s

What If A Nuclear Bomb Hits New York Tomorrow

"The Poisoning Of Eastern Ohio And Western Pennsylvania Is Much Worse Than We Are Being Told" (Excerpt)

"The Poisoning Of Eastern Ohio And Western

Pennsylvania Is Much Worse Than We Are Being Told"

By Michael Snyder

Excerpt: "The true horror of what just happened in East Palestine, Ohio is starting to become clear, but federal, state and local officials continue to insist that everything is just fine. So even though local residents have been puking up blood and developing weird rashes on their skin, everyone is being told that it is perfectly safe to return to their homes and that it is perfectly safe to drink the water. This should make all of us extremely angry, because so many of these people are going to get sick and so many of them are going to die.

Look, the truth should be obvious to everyone at this stage. Even CNN is admitting that local residents “have developed rashes, sore throats, nausea and headaches after returning to their homes this week“…"Some residents of East Palestine, Ohio, say they have developed rashes, sore throats, nausea and headaches after returning to their homes this week, and they’re worried these new symptoms are related to chemicals released after a train derailment two weeks ago.

The February 3 incident caused a massive fire and prompted officials to evacuate hundreds of people who lived near the site because of fears that a hazardous, highly flammable material might ignite. To prevent a potentially deadly explosion, toxic vinyl chloride gas was vented and burned, releasing a plume of black smoke over the town for days."

Please note that these local residents did not develop these symptoms before they evacuated. According to CNN, these symptoms developed after they returned to their homes. And those local residents only returned to their homes because authorities told them that it was safe to do so."

Full article is here:

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

o

Related:

"This DISASTER Is Much Worse Than 

They're Telling Us, Could Last Decades"

"It's About to Pop"

Full screen recommended,

Dan, iAllegedly 2/21/23:

"It's About to Pop"

"The financial headlines are getting more and more troublesome. They would almost be funny if they weren’t so scary. They are predicting a major financial catastrophe for all of us."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Related:

"The Entire Economy and What Wall Street 

Has Built is Pure Outright Fraud"

"Frustrating Trip To Meijer! This is Ridiculous! Prices Continue To Rise!"

Full screen recommended,

Adventures With Danno, 2/21/23:

"Frustrating Trip To Meijer! 

This is Ridiculous! Prices Continue To Rise!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Full screen recommended.

Travelling With Russell, 2/121/23:

"Russian Typical Shopping Mall After 1 Year of Sanctions"

"Walk with me in a Russian TYPICAL Shopping Mall after 1 years of Sanction. What does it look like after Sanctions inposed on Russia? MEGA Teply Stan was the home to IKEA, Auchan and over 150 other stores. How have the affects of Sanctions changed the mood and feeling in this mall in 1 year?"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

And how are the stores and malls near you, Good Citizen?

"How It Really Is"

 

"Major Alert! Russia's Highest Level Of Nuclear Alert; UK Sends Emergency Messages; USA Warns China"

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 2/20/23:

"Major Alert! Russia's Highest Level Of Nuclear Alert; 

UK Sends Emergency Messages; USA Warns China"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The Economic Nightmare Is Here; You Must Evolve Now, Don't Live In Fear"

Full screen recommended.

Jeremiah Babe, 2/20/23:

"The Economic Nightmare Is Here; 

You Must Evolve Now, Don't Live In Fear"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/