"Workingman’s Dead"

"Workingman’s Dead"

by Addison Wiggin

“I ain't no communist necessarily,

 but I been in the red all my life.”

- Woody Guthrie

"Sacco and Vanzetti are rolling in their graves. Never in a million years would they have imagined the strength of the Federal Reserve in dictating the lives and liberties of the American people and their jobs. And yet we listen – and cringe – as “the Growth Recession” is slowly but surely realized with every coming Powell interest rate hike.

“We think it's necessary to have a growth slowdown,” preaches the Chairman. He continues: "Growth is going to be slowing down this year for a couple of reasons. One of which is that we’re coming off of the very high growth of the reopening year of 2021. You're also seeing tighter monetary policy. We actually think we need a period of growth below potential, in order to create some slack so that the supply side can catch up."

You know Powell's theory. It’s simple. The Fed raises rates in an effort to lasso inflation by purposefully slowing “aggregate demand.” As Jim Rickards kindly explained in our latest Wiggin Session, much of the inflation in the system right now is the result of the government lockdowns and subsequent supply chain issues.

The Fed is a bank. It doesn’t drill, ship or refine oil. It can’t unload Samsung TVs from cargo barges off the coast of Long Beach. It can’t drive a truck full of oranges from Central Florida to a Wegmans in King of Prussia, PA. What the Fed can do is crush the consumer’s spirit… and try to dampen the demand for gas, flat screens and morning meditation smoothies.

Kill the demand. Supply will catch up, eventually. The unfortunate and very real side effect rears its fugly head in Powell’s next statement: "We also think that there will be, in all likelihood, some softening in labor market conditions. And those are things that we expect, and we think that they're probably necessary if we were to have – to get inflation."

The Fed’s original mandate from the 1913 Federal Act was “price stability.” In 1978, the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act, better known as the Humphry-Hawkins Act, allowed the Fed mandate to include “full employment.”

Every Fed Chair since Arthur Burns has considered employment as part of their dominion. With Powell’s mutterings about “creating some slack” in the system, he has effectively jettisoned the full employment mandate of 1978. Strangely, there’s still more slack in the system than your garden variety inflation-fighting scenario…

When the “barbarians of specialization” locked down the economy during the Pandemic, millions of Americans simply quit their jobs. The result: Despite two… maybe three… quarters of negative growth, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially declared a recession. One reason is the massive number of “Help Wanted” signs still hanging on storefronts across the country.

The sharp uptick on the right is “The Great Resignation” of 2020. 

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

What makes this “recession” different? If the Fed keeps raising rates, as Goldman and others of their ilk expect, those job openings will magically dissipate. Rising rates will knock out zombie businesses, zombie households, zombie college students… and inject the debt-virus into small businesses. Borrowing to expand or make payroll is easy when rates are low to negative.

Doing the same when interest rates are high and projected to go higher, businesses find themselves working on smaller margins. Find it harder to pay back debts. Find it more difficult to hire new employees. Business owners find themselves spending more money on interest than on strategizing the “next level.” They may even find themselves laying off otherwise trustworthy old employees.

Expect a “soft labor market,” Powell sweet talks…it’s exactly what he wants! When you’re rich and, ahem, powerful, you don’t worry about this kind of thing. But if you ain’t, well… it matters a lot. You’re less likely to finance that new Hyundai Iconiq 5 if you’re not sure you’ll even have a job in the next few months. This winter is going to be rough.

So it goes,

P.S. Another unintended consequence of an extended recession… “labor” gets busy.

Workers line up to vote on unionization at Amazon's

 warehouse in Staten Island. (Source: Associated Press)

“We, as workers,” brays Chris Smalls, man on the street in New York, “the working class, we got to realize our value. If we don't go to work, these CEOs don't make their money. So if workers can realize that no matter where you work in this country, what you're doing, then you will realize that you can form something that can collectively bargain.” Yep. Here we go again."

- https://5minforecast.com/category/daily-issue/

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Related:

"This Is The Big One" MN Gordon Warns 

"We're All Facing A Wrath Of Biblical Proportions"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Shopping At Sprouts Farmers Market! Very Expensive Prices!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 9/23/22:

"Shopping At Sprouts Farmers Market! Very Expensive Prices!"

"In today's vlog we are at Sprouts Farmers Market, and are noticing some very high prices! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and the empty shelves situation around the country! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Billionaires Issue More Warnings About the Economy"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 9/23/22:

"Billionaires Issue More Warnings About the Economy"

"Carl Icahn and Ray Dalio are issuing more warnings about the economy. Carl Icahn says it’s time to pay up. We have nothing but problems with all the free money that has been given out to people and businesses. This ends badly."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

○

Related:

"Crash"

Gregory Mannarino, "A Dire Warning From Gregory Mannarino: Prepare For A Worst Case Scenario; Critical Updates"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/23/22:

"A Dire Warning From Gregory Mannarino: 

Prepare For A Worst Case Scenario; Critical Updates"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Jim Kunstler, “'Joe Biden’s' Last Stand"

“'Joe Biden’s' Last Stand"

That thing that many of you have worried about, 

and some of you have prepared for - well, it’s here. We’re in it now.

by Jim Kunstler

"Historians of the future, grilling spatchcocked plovers over their campfires, will need not ponder for even a New York minute who started World War Three in the rockin’ 2020s. They will point straight to the waxy, furtive, larval figure known as “Joe Biden,” by then judged a moral weevil of such epic low degree that he became an embarrassment to all the other sewer-dwelling denizens of the dank DC underworld, including the roaches, the rats, the humble shipworms eating through sunk oaken foundations of buildings long forgotten, the writhing maggots rinsed from a thousand restaurant dumpsters, the slithering hellgrammites, millipedes, silverfish, pillbugs, termites, dung-beetles, woodlice, and, not least, the scaly lawyers spawned out of the infestation beneath K Street called Perkins Coie LLP. Even these would loathe and disdain the thing that came into this world as “Joe Biden.”

Let us agree that the place called Ukraine was never any of America’s business. For centuries we ignored it, through all the colorful cavalry charges to-and-fro of Turks and Tatars, the reign of the dashing Zaporozhian Cossacks, the cruel abuses of Stalin, then Hitler, and the dull, gray Khrushchev-to-Yeltsin years. But then, having destroyed Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia and sundry other places all on a great hegemonic lark, the professional warmongers of our land and their catamites in Washington made Ukraine their next special project. They engineered the 2014 coup in Kiev that ousted the elected president, Mr. Yanyukovich, to set up a giant grifting parlor and international money-laundromat. The other strategic aim was to prepare Ukraine for NATO membership, which would have made it, in effect, a forward missile base right up against Russia’s border. Because, well, Russia, Russia, Russia!

An early beneficiary of these arrangements, you might recall, was one Hunter Biden, the drug-addicted, sex-obsessed, no-account son of Barack Obama’s no-account vice-president then known simply as Joe Biden sans quote-marks - because in 2014, he was a closer approximation of a real person than is sadly now the case. In fact, he was known as “The Big Guy” among Hunter’s business coterie (though listed as “Pedo Peter” on Hunter’s speed-dial). After the 2014 coup, and for years beyond, Hunter pulled a steady revenue stream out of Ukraine’s Burisma Holdings, a natgas distributor (among other things), serving as a know-nothing, no-show board member. When this monkey business came to the attention of President Trump, and he made a telephone inquiry about it, he was instantly beset by swarms of DC swamp vermin hoisting writs of impeachment.

Fast forward through the past eight years and you have Kiev’s persecution of the Russian-speaking Donbas provinces, the constant shelling and harassment by Banderite Nazis. Between that and the ever more strident urgings for Ukraine to join NATO, President Putin of Russia, Russia, Russia apparently had enough. In February of this year, he started the Special Military Operation to put an end to these hostilities. By April, when whole battalions of Ukrainian Nazis had been exterminated, a call to peace talks was issued by Mr. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister. This was shot-down without ceremony by “Joe Biden” (that is, by the junta behind him). The genius strategists in Foggy Bottom aimed to “weaken” Russia. To what end? (you might ask). Okay: Reasons….

Hence, many hard-fought battles on-the-ground later, Ukraine has lost roughly 70,000 troops killed to Russia’s roughly 6,000 KIA. The USA pours $10-billion-a-month into this venture, including missiles aplenty and other ordnance, in a stupid effort to prolong the conflict and bankrupt our own land. Thus, Mr. Putin has decided to stop pussyfooting around Ukraine, and declared an upgrade in Russia’s effort to put a conclusive end to these shenanigans. He set this forth clearly in a sober speech Wednesday, which included a reminder to the geniuses in the White House basement game room that Russia is a nuclear power.

“Joe Biden” (looking like the ghost of Konstantin Chernenko) answered in a speech to the UN General Assembly the next day, a maundering recitation of sanctimonious bluster, larded with climate hysteria to alarm and bamboozle the UN’s scores of Third World delegates, with not a word about any possible peace talks - because peaceful resolution of the conflict is the last thing that our government wants. It wants war, meaning we citizens of this land will get it, good and hard, if the puppeteers working “Joe Biden’s” mouth get their way. Prepare to live in an ashtray.

From our side, it may just add up - as I said - to plain bluster. The “Joe Biden” regime has already done enough to hurtle the USA and the rest of Western Civ into a new dark age. The nations of the EU have no idea how they will conduct economic activity without the cheap Russian natgas they used to depend on. They are about to get a harsh lesson on the realistic limits of “green energy” they’ve been prattling about for years. So far, it doesn’t look good for them. A few more months of this and the populace from Riga to Lisbon will be stringing up whole parliaments from the boulevard light standards.

Even if “Joe Biden” doesn’t go for the ashtray option, consider the $350-trillion in leveraged financial derivatives orbiting high above the scene like a numberless fleet of death stars primed to blow at the next interest rate uptick. The Euroland stock markets are already tanking hard as I write at 8:30 EDT today. US futures indicate a week-ending bloodbath on Wall Street. This is nature’s way of registering its no-confidence vote in “Joe Biden’s” management of our affairs. All this is on top of the sucking chest wound that Washington DC has become - the necrotic corruption of every agency, the gathering “vaccine” holocaust, the indecent firehose of lies from high places, the Gestapo sleaze of the DOJ/FBI nexus, and the astounding new twists in officially-promoted sexual degeneracy revealed in our schools and hospitals.

Not to put too fine a point on it: the shit has already hit the fan. We are where we were going. If you truly believe those 2020 national election results, then this is what you voted for, America. Feeling any buyer’s remorse yet? Got the feeling that something must be done? Okay then, what?"

- https://kunstler.com/

"A Time Is Coming..."

 

Bill Bonner, "The Fed's Fix"

"The Fed's Fix"

Inflate... or the Zombies must die

by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "Larry Summers, ex US Secretary of the Treasury, went way out on a limb on Wednesday. Fox News was there: "Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers predicts there will 'almost certainly' be a 'downturn in the economy.' Larry Summers, who served as U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton and was a White House economic adviser to President Barack Obama, predicted Wednesday that the economy will experience a "downturn" in the coming months as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation." Note to Larry: that’s the idea.

Three times so far this century, Mr. Market tried to correct the nonsense and distortions caused by the Fed. In 2000 – with the Nasdaq crash. In 2008 – when the mortgage finance collapse caused a crisis on Wall Street. And then again, in 2020, when the feds panicked and shut down the economy to keep people from getting sick.

Each time, Mr. Fed rebuffed the attempt with more money and debt. The Fed refused to allow a correction. Zombie businesses that should have gone broke were kept on low-interest life support. Zombie investments that should have been wiped out were allowed to refinance at even lower rates. And the zombie feds themselves, their pockets as empty as their heads, were given trillions more dollars to spend as they saw fit.

Then, in the beginning of 2022, the party was over. A ‘downturn in the economy’ was for real. For the first time in 40 years, it was open season on zombies.

90 Trillion Reasons: It’s either inflate or… the zombies must die. Right now, the Fed’s campaign of raising the cost of borrowing is death to zombies. But it is life to the dollar; it has made the dollar the world’s strongest currency. And it’s why the best thing you could have done with your money so far this year was simply to leave it in dollar cash.

But in protecting the dollar, the Fed is also protecting the value of $90 trillion worth of US debt. Thirty trillion of that is the debt of the US government – which the feds desperately want to get rid of. And the question we left off with yesterday was how they were going to do it.

They can’t pay it – especially not at higher interest rates. And the higher rates greatly reduce their room to maneuver. They used to be able to spend as much as they wanted… confident that the Fed would ‘print’ enough to keep up with them. They simply issued a bond; the Fed bought it with cash it created especially for that purpose. And since interest rates were going down, their carrying costs actually went down as their debt went up.

But now… all that has changed. Now it is time for Mr. Fed to be a hero again. The Fed claimed to have saved the economy in 2008. It aims to do it again… this time, not by re-flating the economy… but by de-flating it. But the Fed-as-hero story ignores important flaws.

Forgotten is the long period in which the villainous Fed transferred trillions of dollars to the richest and most powerful people in the country, favoring the country’s deciders with its unnaturally-low interest rates. Forgotten too are the many years when the incompetent Fed failed to notice the nation’s debt reaching up to $90 trillion… and inflation creeping up on its flank.

We will also draw a veil over the Fed’s ignorance, in which it thought inflation would be ending before it had even started…and the monumental conceit of former Fed head Ben Bernanke who tried to portray his own cowardly money-printing as “The Courage to Act” …and the preternatural imbecility of its former chief – now directing the US Treasury – Ms. Janet Yellen: “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” she asked herself in 2017. “I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” she concluded. Since then, there have been two financial crises. And she’s still alive.

Apocalypse When? But we put all of that behind us… let bygones be bygones… Now, if we can believe it, this band of brothers and sisters is all that stands between us and the apocalypse. Either the Fed squashes inflation…or it squashes us. The Fed’s leading man has been reborn as Paul Volcker; he will stomp on inflation with both feet.

What remains to be seen is how our hero will resolve the apparent contradiction in the plot. He serves at the pleasure of the US government… which is controlled by the elite. If he follows through on his program, and ‘normalizes’ asset prices, the top 10% of the country – the elite – will lose as much as $50 trillion in stock, bond and real estate values. Congress, too, will be in a helluva jam, with $30 trillion in debt and – at much higher interest rates – no way to refinance it. It will be unable to continue borrowing and spending at today’s pace. Horrors…it might even be forced to balance the budget.

Inflation destroys the economy... punishes consumers… and unsettles government and civil society. Runaway inflation is always a terrible thing for a nation to suffer. It should be stopped as quickly as possible. But if you owe $30 trillion…and you can’t pay it back…you might see things differently. You might see, for example, that inflation is not such a bad thing after all. More to come…"

Joel’s Note: It was only a few days ago (Sept. 20, to be exact) when a Barron’s headline dared to wonder… “Will the Dow go under 30,000?” The answer, swift and decisive, came at this morning’s opening: Why, yes. Yes it will.

CNBC was on the scene…"Stocks slumped on Friday and were on pace for another losing week as investors feared the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking campaign to fight inflation will lead to an economic downturn. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 340 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P 500 slid 1.3%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2%.

Friday marked the fourth negative session in a row for the major averages, with the Dow falling below its June closing low and the 30,000 mark. The Fed on Wednesday enacted another super-sized rate hike of 75 basis points and indicated it would do another at its November meeting.

The action comes as “Growling Powell” inspired Goldman Sachs to cut its year end forecast for equities… again. “The expected path of interest rates is now higher than we previously assumed,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist, “which tilts the distribution of equity market outcomes below our prior forecast.” Goldman lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,300 to 3,600. As we type these words to you this morning, the broader US index is within 100 points of that very mark. Look out below…"

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

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Market Data Center, Live Updates:

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data 

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 9/23/22"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 9/23/22"

Russia May Nuke, Dems Will Cheat, 

Economy Already Tanking

by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Putin is making some serious moves to put Russia on a war footing in what is being called a “partial mobilization of national forces.” Some reports say they are calling up 1 million people for a possible future war effort. Maybe this is why many military aged Russians are trying to escape the country. Meanwhile, a top Russian Security Council member is hinting that nuclear warfare is an option to defend recently annexed parts of Ukraine. There are zero peace talks, and the only thing you are seeing is more money for war from the west. It is now only a matter of when, not if, there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO. Lord, please help us.

A Bill passed in the House of Representatives that will make it easier for Dems to win another presidential race by limiting grounds for electors to object. The Bill also opens up the possibility of voting after Election Day. Of course, post-Election Day voting can only happen if there is some sort of “catastrophe.” So, I guess we can expect a “catastrophe” every presidential election from now on. The Dems continue to look for other ways to cheat and intimidate voters who don’t vote for them. There are some bright spots for voter integrity that are continuing. There are also more and more top Democrats telling Democrat voters to vote for a Republican. One example is Dems are rallying around Republican candidate for Governor Lee Zeldin from New York.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see the economy tanking before our eyes. Housing data is trending down, and inflation is trending up. According to Nerd Wallet, it now costs the average family an extra $11,500 to live this year over last year. Meanwhile, the Fed just raised rates again, and it is on track to raise them again and again and again to fight inflation, or is the Fed crashing the economy? Maybe it’s both. I think the Fed is really just supporting the U.S. dollar and the hell with everything else. If the dollar crashes and loses reserve currency status, it’s game over. Buckle up."

- https://usawatchdog.com/

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these 

stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9/23/22:

- https://rumble.com/

"Doug Casey on America's Rude Awakening"

"Doug Casey on America's Rude Awakening"

by Joel Bowman

"And now for some more Fatal Conceits…Let me take this opportunity to antagonize those of our listeners that I haven’t already antagonized. There are some people who go out of their way to appease others, to say what they think the majority wants to hear, to mollycoddle their audience and make nice with anyone they meet so as not to ruffle any feathers.

Doug Casey is not that person. Whether on the prospect of civil war at home…“It seems that Americans have broken into two groups; the red people and the blue people. And they don’t like each other. In fact, they actually hate each other.”

The war in eastern Europe…“A border conflict between two sh!thole countries…”

Central banking…“An idiotic institution which should be abolished…”

College education…“Worthless degrees of indoctrination…”

The fate of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency…“I think that half or three-quarters of the world’s countries are going to find alternatives to the dollar and the Swift payment system. And this is going to devastate America.”

Western European leaders…“The people running these western European countries are all dyed-in-the-wool, dogmatic socialists; they’re nothing nobodies.”

Or discussing what he calls the “Greater Depression,” in which he expects the average American is in “for a very rude awakening”… “You’re going to have a lot more people living in their cars and under bridges. This is serious.”

Doug doesn’t waste time mincing words. The original International Man riffs on dollar weaponization, the coming "Greater Depression" and civil wars both at home and abroad...

Listen in as we discuss all of the above, including what Doug’s doing with his own money and practical ways he sees to minimize what’s coming down the pike.

Podcast here:

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com

"Something Is Very Wrong, It's About To Get Really Bad for The Average American - No One Will Save You"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/22/22:

"Something Is Very Wrong, It's About To Get Really 

Bad for The Average American - No One Will Save You"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"30 Harsh Facts About Income And Wealth Inequality That Will Shock You"

Full screen recommended.

"30 Harsh Facts About Income And 

Wealth Inequality That Will Shock You"

by Epic Economist

"Some of the most severe economic issues facing the United States are rooted in the extreme levels of income and wealth inequality plaguing our society. Such disparities have always been a problem in the country, with an exceedingly large percentage of wealth going to an exceedingly small percentage of the population. Inequality is typically correlated with higher levels of health problems, lower quality of life, and lower life expectancy.

In recent years, affluent families have seen the value of their assets increase by almost tenfold. Meanwhile, dozens of millions of middle-class Americans have seen their buying power sharply decline – and the current economic downturn has led many to fall straight into poverty. Over the past five decades, there has been a growing concentration of ownership amongst the ultra-wealthy, and now inequality has returned to levels unseen since the beginning of the last century. Today, the richest 0.1% earn 196 times more than the bottom 90% - and they pay significantly less in taxes. On the other hand, the average worker in the U.S. is seeing their paychecks flatlining while inflation continues to push the cost of living to soar.

In 2022, the United States has more income and wealth inequality than in any other period over the past century. The fact that three multi-billionaires own more wealth than 160 million Americans should really shock all of us. According to estimates released by The Guardian, today, around 45% of all new income produced in our country goes to the pockets of the top 1%.

Despite working harder, the average American has never been poorer. Millions of families are struggling financially as living expenses reach the highest levels in over four decades. More than 60% of our nation lives paycheck to paycheck, and around 40% earn starvation wages. Even after working for their entire lives, more than a quarter of aging Americans don't have any savings and many of them believe they'll never be able to retire with dignity, while about 55% of seniors are trying to survive on an income of less than 25,000 dollars a year, as the article also revealed.

The rising inequality gap leads to a weaker economy, as well as social instability, and it proves that the U.S. has a deeply unfair system that benefits some at the back of others. We can tell that these are important issues because the elites work overtime to prevent them from being seriously discussed in our society. The mainstream media - controlled by a handful of conglomerates that decide what we see, hear, and discuss on a daily basis - tend to turn the spotlight away from these problems. But the reality is that over 70 million Americans are uninsured or underinsured, and many families have been unable to keep up with the soaring cost of healthcare and prescription drugs, which are more expensive in the U.S. than anywhere else on the entire planet. Not only 750,000 people are homeless in our nation, but 23% of U.S. households have to spend 50% or more of their limited incomes on housing. We all must understand that we have the right to create a country where the economy and the government work for each and every one of us, not only those in the top 1%.

Even though about two-thirds of Americans say that there’s too much inequality in our nation, less than 40% consider it a top priority problem for the government to address. According to analysts at Capital and Main, we often tend to overlook this matter because we don’t fully grasp just how deep the gap between the rich and the rest of us really is, or the key role the government has played in enabling that gap to grow. That’s why in today’s list, we decided to expose several stats and facts that reveal the true dimension of this alarming problem. Here are 30 Harsh Facts About Income And Wealth Inequality In America That Will Shock You."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

Gerald Celente, "Trends In The News"

Strong language alert!

Gerald Celente, "Trends In The News"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Shooting At The Sky"

"Shooting At The Sky"

by Addison Wiggin

"Well it may be the Devil


Or it may be the Lord


But you're gonna have to serve somebody."

- Bob Dylan, "Slow Train Coming"

"Following yesterday’s 522 point drubbing, the Dow opened this morning down another 207 points, dipping briefly below 30,000 for the first time since December 4th, 2020… nearly two years ago. Year to date the old hag is down 6,251 points, almost 18%. “I do not care at all what happens to the stock market,” writes Carl N, one of our wiliest of readers, “What I do care about is the daily rising cost of staying alive – food and energy.” “Fix that first,” Carl impeaches.

Would that we could, sir. Fed Chair Powell seems to believe in earnest that by inflicting pain on the average day laborer, he can rein in soaring costs for food and energy. Powell led us to believe in his remarks that more rate hikes are on the way. Reading between the Chairman’s lines, Goldman analysts raised their forecast from a peak Fed Funds rate of 4.5% to 4.75%. Their forecast? Rate hikes of 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February. Expect assets in all classes on Wall Street to continue deflating.

We agree, watching the Dow can be tedious. But only when it's going down! That being said, wisdom comes from consilient action. In science and history, consilience is the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources can “converge” on strong conclusions. The stock market is consilient by nature. It is the sum total of millions of individual decisions reflecting the tone and tenor of life as we know it. Whether we like it or not the market is a reflection of what we, collectively, expect for our own future.

As with politics, you ignore the markets at your peril. Fed rate hikes mean credit is tightening. When credit tightens it’s harder to buy houses, it’s harder to buy cars, it’s harder to pay for school. Small businesses find it hard to expand or even stay open. People begin to receive pink slips. Stocks fall. Retirements get postponed.

On the energy front, my co-author on several books, Bill Bonner, is predicting a “Nightmare Winter” in America. More on that below…We find the stock market fascinating. What does the Dow dropping 6,521 points mean? More people appear to be betting our credit-fueled foray into hedonism is, in fact, uh… coming to an end.

We suspect in the coming months, many folks are going to begin heeding the words of this week’s TWS guest. Or just keep shooting at the sky.

“There's no way to crack into this without getting into theological territory,” says James Poulos, author of "Human Forever." Poulos continues: "I know there are a lot of smart people right now who are like, “No, no, no, reason can explain everything. It's time to leave this barbarism of theological stuff behind.

Well think of Bertrand Russell and how he was making these arguments like, “Oh, religion is so silly. And that's why I spend all day contemplating the pure austerity of mathematics, which gives me the most ennobled and perfect feeling that a human being can have.” And it's like, “Well, Russell, you are making a God out of math." So as Bob Dylan said: “You gotta serve somebody. You got to worship someone or something.” Some people worship mammon. Some simply like the game. Some want to buy bigger houses. Some want to travel. Others want to sit on their couches and not do another damn day of work. They’re all the same to me. They just go by different names…"

We apologize for this fair bit of navel-gazing. But that’s one of the reasons we started The Wiggin Sessions, so we could talk to people of all stripes and perspectives. The markets are changing. If you can keep your head on straight through the imminent storm you are going to come out the other end stronger and in a better position for health and wealth.

We defer again to Poulos: "One of the most important things to bring us back to reality is to remember who we are. Questions that historically have only been answerable in a theological way, they’re coming back. It's not going to be rationalism forever, it's not going to be materialism forever. Obviously reason plays a role in our human equipment, obviously we live in an at least partially material world. That's definitely not going to change. It doesn't need to change. It shouldn't change, shouldn't see it as bad news. But the theological stuff is coming back. I think you see it everywhere you go."

Like we said on Monday… In the end, we as human beings, just want something to believe in. Whether that’s family, God, Donald Trump… or the late Queen Elizabeth II. Poulos continues: "These impulses have deep roots – this kind of nihilism – it has deep roots. And the reckoning that is being caused by our confrontation with the mastery of our lives, by our own devices. That's the kind of confrontation that should remind us very forcefully that our humanity is only going to occur to us and bring deep, transcendent, ultimate value if we see it through a theological lens."

The choice, then, when the proverbial sh*t hits the fan in the coming months is... up to us. “Take a breath, look around,” Poulos concludes: "Remember who you are. Americans do have advantages. And one of them is despite the rise in a sort of its culture of self-loathing, we still have a lot to be grateful for. We still have a lot to be proud of, and these are resources that we need and that we can rely on to make this transition in a way that's going to be a lot rockier for others."

I remember thinking immediately after speaking to Mr. Poulos the conversation was a little over-the-top spiritual for my taste. But rereading the transcript and seeing clips from the YouTube video I realize, he’s making some valid points about our state of being. 

“Markets make opinions,” the saying goes. If credit is flowing and the market is rising there’s not a lot of need for navel-gazing. When the trends start going in the other direction in earnest, well… we all gotta lean on something.  None of this, Carl, helps with your immediate concern over food and energy prices, of course. If history holds, those are likely to get worse before they get better.

“I mean, theoretically,” Mr. Bonner concludes, “we could control it, but we can't really because what happens is an empire becomes powerful, and the power corrupts the people who run the empire.” You can find the whole interview with James Poulos here. It’s an interesting take on this historic moment, even when good faith is hard to come by.

Follow your bliss,"

- https://5minforecast.com/wiggin-sessions/

Thanks for writing in. Anyone else? You can write to me here.

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Bob Dylan, "Slow Train Coming"

Musical Interlude: Liquid Mind, "Laguna Indigo"

Full screen recommended.

Liquid Mind, "Laguna Indigo"

"A Look to the Heavens

“This shock wave plows through space at over 500,000 kilometers per hour. Moving toward to bottom of this beautifully detailed color composite, the thin, braided filaments are actually long ripples in a sheet of glowing gas seen almost edge on. Cataloged as NGC 2736, its narrow appearance suggests its popular name, the Pencil Nebula.

About 5 light-years long and a mere 800 light-years away, the Pencil Nebula is only a small part of the Vela supernova remnant. The Vela remnant itself is around 100 light-years in diameter and is the expanding debris cloud of a star that was seen to explode about 11,000 years ago. Initially, the shock wave was moving at millions of kilometers per hour but has slowed considerably, sweeping up surrounding interstellar gas.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120924.html

"Soon Or Late..."

“A craven can be as brave as any man, when there is nothing to fear. And we all do our duty, when there is no cost to it. How easy it seems then, to walk the path of honor. Yet soon or late in every man’s life comes a day when it is not easy, a day when he must choose.”

- George R.R. Martin

"Russia Will Mobilize About 1.2% Of Her Mobilizational Potential"

"Russia Will Mobilize About 1.2% Of Her Mobilizational Potential"

by The Saker

"So, after lots of speculation, we now know that the Kremlin has decided to mobilize about 300’000 soldiers from a total mobilizational potential of 25,000,000 soldiers. That’s just a little over 1% of Russia’s mobilizational potential. We are talking only about those soldiers who have an official status of “reserves” and all of them will have to undergo a special training before being sent to the Ukraine. A few comments about this decision:

It will take Russia a few months to gather and retrain (refresher courses) these forces and they will not be immediately available to protect the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson regions during the upcoming referendum on to whether to join Russia or not. The 3rd volunteer army corps is already deployed in the south and could greatly assist in this.

Putin and Shoigu gave several reasons for this decision, including the very long line of contact, the direct involvement of NATO personnel who are now running the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and the threats by the West to dismantle Russia.

Shoigu indicated that the UAF lost about 50% of its personnel (over 100,000 soldiers out of a total potential of about 200,000). He also added that most of the Ukrainian weapons systems, which were of Soviet origin, was mostly destroyed. Russian KIAs are just under 6000 soldiers.

Shoigu also clearly spelled out that “we are not so much fighting against the Ukraine but against NATO plus the united (collective) West“.

Shoigu also mentioned that all of the NATO satellite capabilities (70 military and 200+ civilian satellites) are used against Russia right now.

Finally, Shoigu added that NATO high precision weapons are deliberately used by NATO commanders to terrorize civilians.

In other words, Russia is preparing for an escalation of this war in the coming months. She is basically augmenting her forces to a level which could deal with a major NATO escalation in the Ukraine (and elsewhere as not all mobilized forces would have to be combat units; deploying more C4ISR capabilities, logistics/supply forces or civil affairs and counter-terrorism units would also make sense).

The other big news of the day is, of course, that Russia will back and accept the outcome of the referendums in the four regions mentioned above. Frankly, I have mixed feelings about this decision, but I understand that the Kremlin simply had no other option for the following reasons: This decision put away the thorny issue of “will the Russians stay or leave”. Once the four regions vote to become part of Russia (which most opinion polls say will happen), they will forever retain that status.

With all the rumors in the West about a limited use of nuclear forces, by making these four regions part of Russian proper, not just de facto but also de jure, Russia extends her nuclear umbrella over them (Russian military doctrine allows for the use of nukes if the territorial integrity and safety of Russia are under threat). Here I will quote Putin:

"They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia. I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff."

Furthermore, I have always said that for all my total support and sympathy, the LDNR republics have major issues (including security issues!) and I am immensely relieved that the Russian state organs, including security services, will now directly take over the management of these republics. Of course, we can expect the usual hysterics and doubling-down from the western ruling class which already promised never to recognize the outcome of any referendums. Russia understands that and she has now taken the measures needed for a long conflict.

As for the Ukronazis, we can be sure that they will do everything in their power to try to disrupt the referendums. Furthermore, they NATO commanders in Kiev fully understand that the Russian forces will only become more powerful over the next few months, so they will be in a hurry to score as many victories (including the murder of civilians and strikes against the civilian infrastructure) as possible.

I fully expect an increase in NATO+Ukronazi attacks in the coming weeks and months. These attacks will only stop when a) the West runs out of resources and b) then their outcome will bring no tangible results whatsoever.

For the consolidated West, this was and has been mostly about optics: PR, PSYOPs, propaganda, you name it. With this latest Russian reaction, it will become even MORE crucial for the rulers of the consolidated West to convince their serfs that Russia is losing and the West winning. Since the western ruling classes know that time is running out (both militarily AND economically) they are desperately trying to conceal this by vociferously proclaiming that the Russian “field negros” will get punished (lynched!) for their audacity to disobey the Great Masters of the Universe.

I want to note here that this mini-mobilization will have a important psychological effect upon the Russian society: the “business as usual” mindset is now clearly obsolete. The Russian MIC has received a direct message that it is now also “mobilized”. The rest of the Russian economy will take notice, I am sure. As will the people. I welcome that “change of tone” very much.

Anyway, I will conclude with a few short items.

Some trolls have constantly been begging me to “show them the bodies”. Okay, I found a Telegram channel with enough bodies to, hopefully, satisfy them: https://t.me/ZLOIORK

Next, the Poles have already threatened to conduct their own referendum in the western Ukraine. Who would have doubted that the Hyena of Europe will bite off a little morsel of the Ukraine for itself (especially one which did belong to Poland historically).

In the meantime, Armenia has threatened to leave the The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a decision which, if that happens, I will fully support and celebrate! The CSTO needs a good cleaning, to put it mildly. Russia saved the sorry asses of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian, and yet all three are still playing that wannabe smart-ass policy of “multi-vectorness” which, in plain English, means “we want Russia to protect us while we sell out to the USA”. The truth is that Russia has much better partners than most of her immediate neighbors and the likes of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian need to learn things the hard way. That is what Armenia is experiencing right how. Maybe Lukashenko and Tokaev will get the message and learn the lesson. As for Armenia, it will just get what it deserves…

In sharp contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and even Turkey have been much more responsible partners for Russia (though Turkey also needs a “reminder” from time to time to behave). And since now the Armenians have “security guarantees” from no less than Pelosi (!) they can now sleep in peace with no need for Russian protection, right?

As for the City on the Hill, the world Sole Superpower, it is busy with nonsense like this: “Unexpectedly, the USAF Finds Itself With a Critical Shortage of Pilots While It Says It Has Too Many White Officers“. As the French like to say, the more things change, the more they remain the same…"

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

- https://thesaker.is/

The Daily "Near You?"

Columbia, Tennessee, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Could Be Worse..."

"I'd been in hairier situations than this one. Actually, it's sort of depressing, thinking how many times I'd been in them. But if experience had taught me anything, it was this: No matter how screwed up things are, they can get a whole lot worse."

- Jim Butcher

Dig your way out, they said...

“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”

“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”

by Simon Black

“In the early summer of 1914, Albert Einstein was about to start a prestigious new job as Director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics. The position was a big deal for the 35-year old Einstein – confirmation that he was one of the leading scientific minds in the world. And he was excited about what he would be able to achieve there. But within weeks of Einstein’s arrival, the German government canceled plans for the Institute; World War I had broken out, and all of Europe was gearing up for one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history.

The impact of the Great War was immeasurable. It cost the lives of 20 million people. It bankrupted entire nations. The war ripped two major European powers off the map – the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire – and deposited them in the garbage can of history. Austria-Hungary in particular boasted the second largest land mass in Europe, the third highest population, and one of the biggest economies. Plus it was a leading manufacturer of high-tech machinery. Yet by the end of the war it would no longer exist.

World War I also played a major role in the emergence of communism in Russia through the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Plus it was also a critical factor in the astonishing rise of the Nazi party in Germany. Without the Great War, Adolf Hitler would have been an obscure Austrian vagabond, and our world would be an entirely different place.

One of the most bizarre things about World War I was how predictable it was. Tensions had been building in Europe for years, and the threat of war was deemed so likely that most major governments invested heavily in detailed war plans. The most famous was Germany’s “Schlieffen Plan”, a military offensive strategy named after its architect, Count Alfred von Schlieffen. To describe the Schlieffen Plan as “comprehensive” is a massive understatement.

As AJP describes in his book "War by Timetable", the Schlieffen Plan called for rapidly moving hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front lines, plus food, equipment, horses, munitions, and other critical supplies, all in a matter of DAYS. Tens of thousands of trains were criss-crossing Europe during the mobilization, and as you can imagine, all the trains had to run precisely on time. A train that was even a minute early or a minute late would cause a chain reaction to the rest of the plan, affecting the time tables of other trains and other troop movements. In short, there was no room for error.

In many respects the Schlieffen Plan is still with us to this day – not with regards to war, but for monetary policy. Like the German General Staff more than a century ago, modern central bankers concoct the most complicated, elaborate plans to engineer economic victory. Their success depends on being able to precisely control the [sometimes irrational] behavior of hundreds of millions of consumers, millions of businesses, dozens of foreign nations, and trillions of dollars of capital. And just like the obtusely complex war plans from 1914, central bank policy requires that all the trains run on time. There is no room for error.

This is nuts. Economies are comprised of billions of moving pieces that are beyond anyone’s control and often have competing interests. A government that’s $30 trillion in debt requires cheap money (i.e. low interest rates) to stay afloat. Yet low interest rates are severely punishing for savers, retirees, and pension funds (including Social Security) because they’re unable to generate a sufficient rate of return to meet their needs.

Low interest rates are great for capital intensive businesses that need to borrow money. But they also create dangerous asset bubbles and can eventually cause a painful rise in inflation. Raise interest rates too high, however, and it could bankrupt debtors and throw the economy into a tailspin. Like I said, there’s no room for error – they have to find the perfect balance between growth and inflation.

Several years ago hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio summed it up perfectly when he said, “It becomes more and more difficult to balance those things as time goes on. It may not be a problem in the next year or two, but the risk of not getting it right increases with time. The risk of them getting it wrong is clearly growing. I truly hope they don’t get it wrong. But if they ever do, people may finally look back and wonder how we could have been so foolish to hand total control of our economy over to an unelected committee of bureaucrats with a mediocre track record… and then expect them to get it right forever. It’s pretty insane when you think about it."

As Einstein quipped at the height of World War I in 1917, “What a pity we don’t live on Mars so that we could observe the futile activities of human beings only through a telescope…”

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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"It is common to assume that human progress affects everyone - that even the dullest man, in these bright days, knows more than any man of, say, the Eighteenth Century, and is far more civilized. This assumption is quite erroneous. The great masses of men, even in this inspired republic, are precisely where the mob was at the dawn of history. They are ignorant, they are dishonest, they are cowardly, they are ignoble. They know little if anything that is worth knowing, and there is not the slightest sign of a natural desire among them to increase their knowledge."

- H. L. Mencken, 1929

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Freely download "Ideas And Opinions", by Albert Einstein, here:

-  https://namnews.files.wordpress.com/

"Russian Nukes Can Be Used To Defend Annexed Ukraine Regions, Kremlin Warns"

Dmitry Medvedev

"Russian Nukes Can Be Used To Defend 

Annexed Ukraine Regions, Kremlin Warns"

by Tyler Durden

"Once again Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has served the role of issuing more severe 'read between the lines' warnings and threats fresh off President Vladimir Putin's Wednesday speech announcing partial mobilization of national forces and which confirmed referendums of occupied portions of Ukraine to join the Russian Federation.

Putin's most alarming line came when he said, "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people," following with "It’s not a bluff." He had also stressed Moscow is ready to use "all available" means to protect its "territorial integrity".

Medvedev has taken the president's words further in Thursday statements, stressing that regarding Russian-seized territory and the move to vote in several areas - including the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions - "there is no going back" and that even a 'nuclear option' could be on the table.

"The Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] republics and other territories will be accepted into Russia," he posted to Telegram. That's when the former president and top national security official doubled down on Putin's nuclear warning, stating: "Russia has announced that not only mobilization capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection."

Putin and Medvedev's statements mark the first time any top Russian officials have affirmed readiness to bring newly acquired Russian territories under Moscow's nuclear doctrine. However, it remains that Russian forces do not yet control 100% of any of the four main territories where annexation votes are to be held - with some referendums set for early as this weekend according to prior reports.

To review of the past 48 hours of Kremlin decision-making which is poised to escalate this war even further, here is the logical course of what just got enacted in the call-up of some 300,000 reservists:

• Conscripts were previously told they won't be sent to Ukraine to fight because they are stationed/defend inside Russia.

 • Ukrainian-held territories are now about to vote to join the Russian Federation.

 • When these territories join Russian then they are "inside Russia." They are Russian oblasts and attempts to defend (formerly) Ukrainian territory would then mark an invasion of Russian territory supported by NATO equipment.

Thus Medvedev's warning of 'willingness' to use nukes covers these territories inside Ukraine. “Territorial integrity” is of course tricky as Russia is currently planning to absorb 4 Ukrainian regions, none of which is even fully controlled by its armed forces. Would this mean that Ukraine would be threatened with nuclear weapons to hand them to Russia?" 

- Andrey Baklitskiy (@baklitskiy) September 21, 2022

Putin's emphasis of this is "not a bluff" notwithstanding, some analysts say this is all about posturing in order to scare NATO away from escalation...“I think it signals that he wants people to think he would risk nuclear war,” Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “I don’t think it means he is any more likely to do it than he was yesterday.” "If he says that any attack on soil that he calls Russia is going to be a nuclear tripwire, Ukraine’s already broken that in Crimea," O’Brien added in comments given to NBC. Yet Washington says it is taking this nuclear rhetoric seriously.

As for the White House, President Biden in his Wednesday UN General Assembly speech in New York called out Putin's “overt, reckless and irresponsible” nuclear threats, warning that such wars should “never be fought” and that Russia's actions should make everyone's “blood run cold”. He renewed his warning of “a nuclear war cannot be won” - saying the US does “not seek a cold war.”

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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Related:

"Serbian President Warns Of 'Great World Conflict' Within Two Months"

“I assume that we’re leaving the phase of the special military operation and approaching a major armed conflict, and now the question becomes where is the line, and whether after a certain time – maybe a month or two, even – we will enter a great world conflict not seen since the Second World War.” 

- Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia

"Don’t Panic! - It Gets Worse From Here"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 9/22/22:

"Don’t Panic! - It Gets Worse From Here"

"We have seen promise after promise from the Fed. There is no way that they’re going to fix inflation. They just did a 3/4% rise in interest-rates and they think that’s going to fix everything. It is going to do nothing but create a slow burn towards the Depression."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

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Related:

"Inflation Costing Average American Family $11,500 This Year"

"Americans are set to fork out an extra $11,500 this year if they want to enjoy the same standard of living they maintained in 2020, according to new estimates from NerdWallet."

Gregory Mannarino, "Multi-Billionaire Investors Warn: A Disaster Is Coming"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/22/22:

"Multi-Billionaire Investors Warn: A Disaster Is Coming"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/