Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Judge Napolitano, "Col. Doug Macgregor: Ukraine/Russia Latest"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom:
"Col. Doug Macgregor: Ukraine/Russia Latest"
"Ukraine brushes off Russian plan to annex occupied regions."
Comments here:
Related:
Excerpt: "Though the under socialist siege American peoples “don’t understand what is going on” in this “great power conflict”, this report continues, the Biden Regime most certainly does, which is why Ambassador Anatoly Antonov just declared that the United States is openly a party to the conflict in Ukraine, and factually stated: “Washington’s statements that the United States is not a party to the conflict sound absolutely ridiculous and unfounded. Facts and interviews of former and current politicians and generals say otherwise. Videos currently shown on Western channels clearly demonstrate that soldiers and officers who speak fluent English, many with pronounced British and American accents, are fighting against us. The current situation of Washington inciting Kiev against us is an indisputable, obvious fact. If the Americans go along with Ukraine’s insane demands for long-range rockets, such a scenario would mean direct involvement of the United States in a military confrontation with Russia”.
So, Good Citizens, YOU, and all of us collectively, have sent at least $65 billion in military and other "assistance", but we're "not a party to the conflict"? THIS is what you're risking -  is it worth it? Why?

Bill Bonner, "Billy Clubs and Water Cannons"

"Billy Clubs and Water Cannons"
Markets are already black and blue...
 but the real pain is yet to come.
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "The beatings will continue until morale improves. Understanding today’s market is very simple. For the last 40 years, the Fed has been rewarding stock holders. Now, it’s punishing them. Investors are beginning to understand. Barrons: "The Stock Market Finally Gets It. FedEx’s Bad News Helped Drive the Point Home." From a certain point onward, there is no turning back. The stock market reached that point this past week.

Oh, the market was hopeful, entering the week, that inflation had reached its peak, that the Federal Reserve would stop raising rates soon, that the bottom was in. But Tuesday’s release of August’s consumer-price-index data showed that inflation hadn’t been tamed and dashed all the goodwill, sending the major indexes to their worst day since 2020.

Fox News tacked into the same wind: "Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett…warned in an analyst note this week that the "inflation shock ain't over," and that a subsequent earnings recession will precipitate further declines in the market. Hartnett said that past bear markets show an average peak-to-trough decline of about 37% for the S&P 500, the benchmark index, over 289 days. That would suggest the current bear market – which began in early June – will end in October with the gauge around 3,020 points. That would mark a nearly 22% decline from current levels."

Good and Hard: All over the world, with the notable exception of Japan, almost all central banks have brought out their cudgels and tasers. Already, US markets are black and blue. But central banks have only just begun. Investors anticipate another 75-basis point (0.75%) increase this week. But some economists are urging the Fed to strike harder. Larry Summers, for example, the only Democrat to have any idea of what is going on, suggested a 100-basis point hike. And Komal Sri-Kumar, head of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told CNBC that the Fed should go for 125 basis points.

But Argentina, always a leader with crackpot financial trends, shows the way forward. Reuters: "Argentina Hikes Interest Rate 550 bps After Inflation Overshoots." "Argentina's central bank hiked the country's benchmark interest rate 550 basis points to 75% on Thursday, a day after inflation overshot forecasts to near 80% on an annual basis. The hike followed a 950 basis points-raise in August of the 28-day Leliq benchmark rate, as the government tries to bring down spiraling prices that are hurting Argentines' savings and salaries and denting the popularity of the Peronist government."

Rates are rising. The economy is slowing. Stocks are falling. The only question is: how long will the beatings go on? “It is clearer by the day that markets were overly lavishly supported by central banks for too long,” writes Katie Martin in the Financial Times. “Correcting this imbalance will keep on sparking the ugly declines and head-fake bear market rallies that characterized the crisis of 2008-2009.”

The Kübler-Ross Model: A real bear market proceeds like a death sentence. First, there is denial. Then, anger and depression… followed by bargaining, and finally, acceptance. Until last week, ‘denial’ was the name of the game. But then, investors began to realize – the Fed is serious. It intends to inflict a lot more pain.

Markets move faster than economies. First, the P gives way. Then the E. Stock Prices are supposed to ‘look ahead,’ anticipating future Earnings. So, in the initial stages, prices drop before the bad recession-era earnings become apparent. Then, the lower prices mislead investors. They think stocks look ‘fairly priced.’ Advisers urge them to ‘buy the dip.’ At current prices, for example, Alphabet almost looks like a value stock.

But then comes more bad news. The recession causes sales and earnings to fall. Soon, it doesn’t look like such a bargain anymore. As of last week, investors are no longer in denial. They’re just trying to understand how bad it will get. Analysts look to the recent past for clues. Will it be like the Nasdaq crash in 2000? Or the mortgage finance crisis after 2007? Or, maybe the Covid Panic selloff of 2020?

In our view, those riots are irrelevant. They’re from a different era, when the Fed was on hand… with warm blankets and hot coffee. Now, the Fed is back on the scene… but with billy clubs and water cannons. More to come…"

Joel’s Note: It’s hard to fathom what an Argentine-style, 550 basis point hike would look like in the U.S., much less the carnage it would unleash on the markets. And yet, with a nominal Fed target rate still below 2.5%… and inflation running at 8.3% (17.1 according to ShadowStats - CP)… such a mammoth hike would still leave real rates floundering in negative territory. (2.5 plus 5.5 still equals 8… even in modern economics classrooms.) And if inflation “hiccuped,” say because energy prices come roaring back after the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release ends next month, we could be off to the races again… with the Feds chasing down 9… 9.5… or even double-digit inflation.

What does all that mean? In a nutshell: more distortion of the most important price of all. Dan explained as much in last Friday’s note to Bonner Private Research members…"In a ‘normal’ financial world, time has a price. That price is the interest rate you earn by loaning or investing your savings. The benchmark interest rate – currently set by central banks – determines the returns for all other asset classes. When you leave it too low for too long, you get diminishing marginal returns. Worse, too much of a good thing becomes a bad thing.

We’re reckoning with many ‘bad things’ and bubbles right now. When you distort that price (lower it to zero) you distort the values of all other assets (making it very difficult to figure out what to pay today for future cash flows). By mis-pricing the cost of capital, you distort capitalism itself.

Which brings us to 2022… and the beginning of the reckoning we’re witnessing across markets right now. “A lot of people made a lot of stupid money in the low interest rate era,” Dan reminded us Friday. “A lot of them are going to lose even more in a grinding, volatile, bear market.”
Market Data Center, Live Updates:

Gregory Mannarino, "The Worst Is Yet To Come: Debt Market Sell-off Continues, Inflation Rises Worldwide"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/20/22:
"The Worst Is Yet To Come: Debt Market 
Sell-off Continues, Inflation Rises Worldwide"
Comments here:

"Strange Prices At Trader Joe's! This Is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 9/20/22:
"Strange Prices At Trader Joe's! This Is Crazy!"
"In today's vlog we are at Trader Joe's, and are noticing some strange prices! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

You don't like things now? Well...
Oh, you ain't seen nothing yet, but you will...

"Gerald Celente Warning: They Don't Want You To Know How Bad It Is"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 9/20/22:
"Gerald Celente Warning: 
They Don't Want You To Know How Bad It Is"
"Economic crash, stock market crash, housing 
market crash, it's already here you just don't know it yet!"
Comments here:

Monday, September 19, 2022

"The Kharkov Game-Changer"

"The Kharkov Game-Changer"
By Pepe Escobar

"Wars are not won by psyops. Ask Nazi Germany. Still, it’s been a howler to watch NATOstan media on Kharkov, gloating in unison about “the hammer blow that knocks out Putin”, “the Russians are in trouble”, and assorted inanities.

Facts: Russian forces withdrew from the territory of Kharkov to the left bank of the Oskol river, where they are now entrenched. A Kharkov-Donetsk-Lugansk line seems to be stable. Krasny Liman is threatened, besieged by superior Ukrainian forces, but not lethally.

No one – not even Maria Zakharova, the contemporary female equivalent of Hermes, the messenger of the Gods – knows what the Russian General Staff (RGS) plans, in this case and all others. If they say they do, they are lying.

As it stands, what may be inferred with a reasonable degree of certainty is that a line – Svyatogorsk-Krasny Liman-Yampol-Belogorovka – can hold out long enough with their current garrisons until fresh Russian forces are able to swoop in and force the Ukrainians back beyond the Seversky Donets line.

All hell broke loose – virtually – on why Kharkov happened. The people’s republics and Russia never had enough men to defend a 1,000 km-long frontline. NATO’s entire intel capabilities noticed – and profited from it. There were no Russian Armed Forces in those settlements: only Rosgvardia, and these are not trained to fight military forces. Kiev attacked with an advantage of around 5 to 1. The allied forces retreated to avoid encirclement. There are no Russian troop losses because there were no Russian troops in the region.

Arguably this may have been a one-off. The NATO-run Kiev forces simply can’t do a replay anywhere in Donbass, or in Kherson, or in Mariupol. These are all protected by strong, regular Russian Army units.

It’s practically a given that if the Ukrainians remain around Kharkov and Izyum they will be pulverized by massive Russian artillery. Military analyst Konstantin Sivkov maintains that, “most combat-ready formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now being grounded (…) we managed to lure them into the open and are now systematically destroying them.”

The NATO-run Ukrainian forces, crammed with NATO mercenaries, had spent 6 months hoarding equipment and reserving trained assets exactly for this Kharkov moment – while dispatching disposables into a massive meat grinder. It will be very hard to sustain an assembly line of substantial prime assets to pull off something similar again.

The next days will show whether Kharkov and Izyum are connected to a much larger NATO push. The mood in NATO-controlled EU is approaching Desperation Row. There’s a strong possibility this counter-offensive signifies NATO entering the war for good, while displaying quite tenuous plausible deniability: their veil of – fake – secrecy cannot disguise the presence of “advisers” and mercenaries all across the spectrum.

Decommunization as de-energization: The Special Military Operation (SMO), conceptually, is not about conquering territory per se: it is, or it was, so far, about protection of Russophone citizens in occupied territories, thus demilitarization cum denazification. That concept may be about to be tweaked. And that’s where the tortuous, tricky debate on Russia mobilization fits in. Yet even a partial mobilization may not be necessary: what’s needed are reserves to properly allow allied forces to cover rear/defensive lines. Hardcore fighters of the Kadyrov contingent kind would continue to play offense.

It’s undeniable that Russian troops lost a strategically important node in Izyum. Without it, the complete liberation of Donbass becomes significantly harder. Yet for the collective West, whose carcass slouches inside a vast simulacra bubble, it’s the pysops that matters much more than a minor military advance: thus all that gloating on Ukraine being able to drive the Russians out of the whole of Kharkov in only four days – while they had 6 months to liberate Donbass, and didn’t. So, across the West, the reigning perception – frantically fomented by psyops experts – is that the Russian military were hit by that “hammer blow” and will hardly recover.

Kharkov was preciously timed – as General Winter is around the corner; the Ukraine issue was already suffering from public opinion fatigue; and the propaganda machine needed a boost to turbo-lubricate the multi-billion dollar weaponizing rat line.

Yet Kharkov may have forced Moscow’s hand to increase the pain dial. That came via a few well-placed Mr. Kinzhals leaving the Black Sea and the Caspian to present their business cards to the largest thermal power plants in northeast and central Ukraine (most of the energy infrastructure is in the southeast). Half of Ukraine suddenly lost power and water. Trains came to a halt. If Moscow decides to take out all major Ukraine substations at once, all it takes is a few missiles to totally smash the Ukrainian energy grid – adding a new meaning to “decommunization”: de-energization.

According to an expert analysis, “if transformers of 110-330 kV are damaged, then it will almost never be possible to put it into operation (…) And if this happens at least at 5 substations at the same time, then everything is kaput. Stone age forever.” Russian government official Marat Bashirov was way more colorful: “Ukraine is being plunged into the 19th century. If there is no energy system, there will be no Ukrainian army. The matter of fact is that General Volt came to the war, followed by General Moroz (“frost”)."

And that’s how we might be finally entering “real war” territory – as in Putin’s notorious quip that “we haven’t even started anything yet.” A definitive response will come from the RSG in the next few days. Once again, a fiery debate rages on what Russia will do next (the RGS, after all, is inscrutable, except for Yoda Patrushev). The RGS may opt for a serious strategic strike of the decapitating kind elsewhere – as in changing the subject for the worse (for NATO). It may opt for sending more troops to protect the front line (without partial mobilization).

And most of all it may enlarge the SMO mandate – going to total destruction of Ukrainian transport/energy infrastructure, from gas fields to thermal power plants, substations, and shutting down nuclear power plants.

Well, it could always be a mix of all of the above: a Russian version of Shock and Awe – generating an unprecedented socio-economic catastrophe. That has already been telegraphed by Moscow: we can revert you to the Stone Age at any time and in a matter of hours (italics mine). Your cities will greet General Winter with zero heating, freezing water, power outages and no connectivity.

A counter-terrorist operation: All eyes are on whether “centers of decision” – as in Kiev – may soon get a Kinzhal visit. This would signify Moscow has had enough. The siloviki certainly did. But we’re not there – yet. Because for an eminently diplomatic Putin the real game revolves around those gas supplies to the EU, that puny plaything of American foreign policy.

Putin is certainly aware that the internal front is under some pressure. He refuses even partial mobilization. A perfect indicator of what may happen in winter is the referenda in liberated territories. The limit date is November 4 – the Day of National Unity, a commemoration introduced in 2004 to replace the celebration of the October revolution. With the accession of these territories to Russia, any Ukrainian counter-offensive would qualify as an act of war against regions incorporated into the Russian Federation. Everyone knows what that means.*

It may now be painfully obvious that when the collective West is waging war – hybrid and kinetic, with everything from massive intel to satellite data and hordes of mercenaries – against you, and you insist on conducting a hazily-defined Special Military Operation (SMO), you may be up for some nasty surprises. So the SMO status may be about to change: it’s bound to become a counter-terrorist operation.

This is an existential war. A do or die affair. The American geopolitical /geoeconomic goal, to put it bluntly, is to destroy Russian unity, impose regime change and plunder all those immense natural resources. Ukrainians are nothing but cannon fodder: in a sort of twisted History remake, the modern equivalents of the pyramid of skulls Timur cemented into 120 towers when he razed Baghdad in 1401.

If may take a “hammer blow” for the RSG to wake up. Sooner rather than later, gloves – velvet and otherwise – will be off. Exit SMO. Enter War."
Update 9/20/22:
*"With the accession of these territories to Russia, any Ukrainian counter-offensive would qualify as an act of war against regions incorporated into the Russian Federation. Everyone knows what that means."
Related, highest recommendation:

"What Would a Nuclear War Look Like?"

"What Would a Nuclear War Look Like?"
by Jeff Thomas

"For eight years, NATO has backed puppet rulers in Ukraine, funded attacks on Donbass, repeatedly violated the Minsk Treaties, outlawed the speaking of Russian in the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, and has destroyed democratic opposition and free media in Ukraine, leaving it a one-party government, essentially owned and financed by the US and administrated by US operatives. Not much subtlety there. Yet, somehow, the US has managed to convince the people of the US and other Western countries that Russia is the bad boy, is out of control and must be stopped.

In spite of all the above, Russia remained stoic and sought continually to keep a lid on the situation. It did, however, state firmly that the "red line" would be if Ukraine were to go nuclear, becoming a direct threat to Moscow. That would not be tolerated. Surely, this was a sober heads-up to any sensible country that the one thing that must not happen would be for Ukraine to go nuclear. After all, once that Pandora’s Box was opened, the last barrier to possible nuclear war would be crossed.

For eight years, Russia had been goaded again and again by the West, yet they did not take the bait. Then, in February of 2022, at the annual Munich Security Conference, the President of Ukraine announced his intent to make Ukraine a nuclear country. Five days later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Immediately, the US propaganda arm went into operation, and for months, even as Ukraine was consistently losing the war, at every turn, the Western media renewed its claims that the war was turning; that Russia was faltering, and the heroes of Ukraine were beating back the Great Bear.

But all the above is old news. Why, at this juncture, should we be reviewing it? Well, its continued significance is that NATO (or the US – they are virtually interchangeable at this point) has, from the beginning, behaved recklessly with the prospect of nuclear conflict. Are they mad? Or are they so foolish as to think that they have some sort of "edge" in a nuclear conflict? Or do they see this as a game of one-upmanship in which the only important concern is which antagonist has the greater bluster?

We can only speculate as to the answer to this quandary. But, setting this aside, we should be questioning, a) what is the likelihood that the West would be so foolhardy as to actually push the button and, b) what would the outcome look like?

As to the first question, considering that it’s now becoming increasingly evident that the West have been misrepresenting the progress of the war; that the trained Azov forces are spent and replacements cannot be trained fast enough to go against the experienced Russian forces, the US is going to have to come up with another plan… and it will need to be something dramatic. At this point, the one card they have not played is the nuke card.

They’ve claimed that the Russians have been either firing on or causing explosions in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant that they have held for some time. In essence, they’re being accused of bombing themselves in a facility that has long-since been taken. At this point, not many listeners are buying this explanation. So, what do they have left in their toolbox?

I’ve long felt that, as an end-run, what the West might do would rely on an old favorite technique – a false flag attack. Create a narrative and videos of an attack on, say, Kiev by Russia with a small nuclear warhead. Then announce that the warhead had been fired, killing hundreds of thousands. Then let loose the pre-prepared media blitz and invoke Article 5, justifying nuclear warfare. It just might turn the tide of sympathy. But it would also open a door that could not once again be closed.

For decades, both Russia and the US have had large numbers of nukes aimed at each other, with a system of timed releases. Once the first button is pushed, interrupting the progression is difficult. So, as to that second question – "What would a nuclear war look like?" there are many studies, but the most illustrative one I’m familiar with was produced by Princeton.
Full screen recommended.

Well, each major US city would be targeted with multiple ICBMs, each big enough to destroy it. Most of the US would be carpeted with other ICBMs. The US would be destroyed within a few hours. An estimated 90 million people would be killed initially.

Those at ground zero would be vaporized. Those on the periphery of a bomb could escape if they were to get to concrete shelter very quickly. They would then need to remain sealed up for weeks, if not longer, until the majority of fallout had settled. It would be a gamble as to when exiting the building would be safe.

The northern border of the US would be destroyed, taking in Canadian border cities, such as Vancouver and Toronto. The southern border, with Mexico, would also go.

Next would be the movement of fallout. As the video shows, those who live in or near a direct target would have no hope, but as can be seen, there are locations outside the US that are not targeted at all. Those locations that have no strategic advantage would not be targeted. So, if you were located in, say, Jamaica, you would not be hit, but, just as importantly, the Caribbean weather system – the trade winds – would carry any northern fallout away from you, as would the Gulf Stream.

Better still, the world is separated at the Equator by two weather systems that do not mix. Fallout in the north will be unlikely to travel to the south. If you’re located in South America, there are very few likely targets. It’s unknown whether, say, Rio de Janeiro or Buenos Aires would be targets, but if not, South America may be the best place to be in the Western Hemisphere. If anything, Europe and the Middle East would fare worse than North America.

Finally, there is the question of nuclear winter. No one can know whether this would last months or years and whether it would be localized or global. Nuclear war is not a certainly, yet the West has been dangerously rattling sabres as though they are invincible and only others can be destroyed. This is quite false.

We cannot be certain that nuclear war will be undertaken, but if so, it will be quick. There will be no time to create an escape plan. You must already be in a location that you deem to be as safe as possible."
A must view article by Jim Kunstler:
"NUKEMAP"
"NUKEMAP is a web-based nuclear weapons effects simulator. I created it in 2012 (and did all programming, design, and research on it). Since then it has had many updates to its effects model and capabilities. It has been used by over 20 million people globally, and has been featured in both academic and general-audience publications and television shows for depicting nuclear weapons effects"

"Housing Crash Begins! We Just Witnessed Something That Hasn’t Happened Since 2008"

Full screen recommended.
"Housing Crash Begins! We Just Witnessed 
Something That Hasn’t Happened Since 2008"
by Epic Economist

"The disaster we’re about to witness didn’t have to happen. The desperate attempt to control this horrifying inflation spiral is absolutely crushing the US housing market – and we are all going to feel the impact of the coming crash. In recent years, irresponsible monetary policies were put in place, fueling an unprecedented inflation boom that sent housing costs to extreme levels. Now, policymakers at the central bank and politicians in Washington are scrambling to tame the beast they unleashed by themselves. But everyone knows that rapidly rising interest rates are going to wreak havoc on financial markets, and most notably, in the housing sector. When mortgage rates soar higher, more and more potential homebuyers are pushed to the sidelines.

Fewer buyers mean fewer sales, which translates into downward pressure on home prices. This is basic economics, you don’t need to be an expert to understand any of this. But it seems that Fed officials are either clueless or very much aware that what they are doing is going to be exceedingly destructive to the U.S. economy as a whole but they’re still waiting for some magical solution to come about to dig us out of this hole. Once again, the housing market is in shambles, and we’re on the cusp of a housing collapse that will make the 2008 crash look like a Sunday picnic.

Do you remember the pain that we all went through in 2008? Well, a similar scenario is now unfolding right before our eyes, only this time, things are about to get a whole lot worse. In fact, something that hasn’t happened in the market since 2008 actually happened again last week. According to data released on Thursday, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose above 6 percent for the first time since the financial crisis.

The truth is that higher interest rates predominantly hurt low-and-middle-income Americans while the wealthy can still afford to purchase homes because many of them don’t even need mortgages, they can just buy them with cash. But for the rest of us, aggressive rate hikes make a world of difference. Each and every increase adds hundreds of dollars or more to the monthly cost of a potential buyer’s mortgage payment, slowing what was a red-hot market not so long ago. Since the start of the year, the average mortgage payment has surged 38.5% to $2,306 from about $1,700 in January. With mortgages weighing even more on already expensive home prices, mortgage demand is drying up really fast right now. Numbers released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the number of applications plunged by nearly 30% compared to a year ago. And the number of applications to refinance mortgages has fallen off a cliff, with refinancing activity collapsing over 80%, MBA revealed in a new report.

The chief economist at Redfin, Daryl Fairweather, says that the ongoing meltdown is the deepest since the previous crash. “This is the sharpest turn in the housing market since the housing market crash in 2008,” she outlined in a recent interview. At this point, an estimated 39 million would-be buyers are being forced to continue renting. At the same time, more than one in 10 renters across the country are behind on rent. We have to remind ourselves that very rough weather is headed our way, and a number of crises may simultaneously burst this winter. The wise will prepare in advance, but those that are foolish will do nothing because they still believe that our leaders have everything under control."

Canadian Prepper, "It's Official. Prep for Total War”

Canadian Prepper, 9/19/22:
"It's Official. Prep for Total War”
"The march towards global conflict is unrelenting. 
Get prepared while you can."
Comments here:

“Walmart Cancels Billions In Orders; Economic Crash Landing, Brace For Impact”

Jeremiah Babe, 9/19/22:
“Walmart Cancels Billions In Orders; 
Economic Crash Landing, Brace For Impact”
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Cycle of Time"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Cycle of Time"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the above gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope in honor of the 23rd anniversary of Hubble's launch.
The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”

The Poet: Theodore Roethke, “The Geranium”

“The Geranium”

“When I put her out, once, by the garbage pail,
She looked so limp and bedraggled,
So foolish and trusting, like a sick poodle,
Or a wizened aster in late September,
I brought her back in again
For a new routine -
Vitamins, water, and whatever
Sustenance seemed sensible
At the time: she’d lived
So long on gin, bobbie pins, half-smoked cigars, dead beer,
Her shriveled petals falling
On the faded carpet, the stale
Steak grease stuck to her fuzzy leaves.
(Dried-out, she creaked like a tulip.)
The things she endured!
The dumb dames shrieking half the night
Or the two of us, alone, both seedy,
Me breathing booze at her,
She leaning out of her pot toward the window.
Near the end, she seemed almost to hear me -
And that was scary -
So when that snuffling cretin of a maid
Threw her, pot and all, into the trash-can,
I said nothing.
But I sacked the presumptuous hag the next week,
I was that lonely.”

- Theodore Roethke

Chet Raymo, “A Sense Of Place”

“A Sense Of Place”
by Chet Raymo

“It would be hard to find two writers more different than Eudora Welty and Edward Abbey. Welty was a Pulitzer Prize-winning author of stories and novels who lived all her life in Jackson, Mississippi, in the house in which she was born, the beloved spinster aunt of American letters. Abbey was a hard-drinking, butt-kicking nature writer and conservationist best known for his books on the American Southwest. Both writers are favorites of mine. Both were great champions of place. I always wondered what it would have been like if they got together. As far as I know, that never happened. But let’s imagine a conversation. I have taken extracts from Welty’s essay “Some Notes on River Country” (1944) and from Abbey’s essay “The Great American Desert (1977) and interleaved them.

“This little chain of lost towns between Vicksburg and Natchez.”

“This desert, all deserts, any deserts.”

“On the shady stream banks hang lady’s eardrops, fruits and flowers dangling pale jade. The passionflower puts its tendrils where it can, its strange flowers of lilac rays with their little white towers shining out, or its fruit, the maypop, hanging.”

“Oily growths like the poison ivy – oh yes, indeed – that flourish in sinister profusion on the dank walls above the quicksand down those corridors of gloom and labyrinthine monotony that men call canyons.”

“All creepers with trumpets and panicles of scarlet and yellow cling to the treetops. There is a vine that grows to great heights, with heart-shaped leaves as big and soft as summer hats.”

“Everything in the desert either stings, stabs, stinks, or sticks. You will find the flora here as venomous, hooked, barbed, thorny, prickly, needled, saw-toothed, hairy, stickered, mean, bitter, sharp, wiry and fierce as the animals.”

“Too pretty for any harsh fate, with its great mossy trees and old camellias.”

“Something about the desert inclines all living things to harshness and acerbity.”

“The clatter of hoofs and the bellow of boats have gone. The Old Natchez Trace has sunk out of use. The river has gone away and left the landings. But life does not forsake any place.”

“In the Sonoran Desert, Phoenix will get you if the sun, snakes, bugs, and arthropods don’t. In the Mojave Desert, it’s Las Vegas. Up north in the Great Basin Desert, your heart will break, seeing the strip mines open up and the power plants rise…”

“The Negro Baptist church, weathered black with a snow-white door, has red hens in the yard. The old galleried stores are boarded up. The missing houses were burned – they were empty, and the little row of Negro inhabitants have carried them off for firewood.”

“…the highway builders, land developers, weapons testers, power producers, clear cutters, oil drillers, dam beavers, subdividers.”

“Eventually you see people, of course. Women have little errands, and the old men play checkers at a table in the front of the one open store. And the people’s faces are good.”

“Californicating.”

“To go there, you start west from Port Gibson. Postmen would arrive here blowing their horns like Gabriel, after riding three hundred wilderness miles from Tennessee.”

“Why go into the desert? Really, why do it? That sun, roaring at you all day long. The fetid, tepid, vapid little water holes full of cannibal beetles, spotted toads, horsehair worms, liver flukes. Why go there?”

“I have felt many times there is a sense of place as powerful as if it were visible and walking and could touch me. A place that ever was lived in is like a fire that never goes out. Sometimes it gives out glory, sometimes its little light must be sought out to be seen.”

“Why the desert, when you could be camping by a stream of pure Rocky Mountain spring water. We have centipedes, millipedes, tarantulas, black widows, brown recluses, Gila monsters, the deadly poisonous coral snakes, and the giant hairy desert scorpions. Plus an immense variety of near-infinite number of ants, midges, gnats, bloodsucking flies, and blood-guzzling mosquitoes.”

“Much beauty has gone, many little things of life. To light up the night there are no mansions, no celebrations. Wild birds fly now at the level where people on boat deck once were strolling and talking.”

“In the American Southwest, only the wilderness is worth saving.”

“There is a sense of place there, to keep life from being extinguished, like a cup of the hands to hold a flame.”

“A friend and I took a walk up beyond Coconino County, Arizona. I found an arrow sign, pointed to the north. Nothing of any unusual interest that I could see – only the familiar sun-blasted sandstone, a few scrubby clumps of blackbush and prickly pear, a few acres of nothing where only a lizard could graze. I studied the scene with care. But there was nothing out there. Nothing at all. Nothing but the desert. Nothing but the silent world.”

“Perhaps it is the sense of place that gives us the belief that passionate things, in some essence, endure.”

“In my case, it was love at first sight. The kind of love that makes a man selfish, possessive, irritable…”

“New life will be built upon these things.”

“…an unrequited and excessive love.”

“It is this.”

“That’s why.”

Bill Bonner, "A Tale of Two Englands"

"A Tale of Two Englands"
by Bill Bonner

"De horses run ‘round, den dey come back.
Doo dah, doo dah."
~ Stephen Foster

Blenheim, England - "England is closed today. The streets are quiet. Few people move about. No shops are open here in Blenheim. Instead, each has a photo of Elizabeth II in the window, with a reminder of today’s funeral. We came to England to support one of America’s two entries at the Blenheim Horse Trials. But, on Friday, your editor first stopped in to check on his business in London.

Our CEOs all report the same thing – business is off. And our financial analysts all see similar declines in asset values… with central banks forced to raise rates… and economies weakening. But London was distracted. It wasn’t money troubles that weighed on the minds of our English colleagues. For the first time in their lives, they have a new monarch.

“It’s amazing,” said one. “The lines waiting to view the queen’s coffin stretched for 5 miles. People waited in line for 12 hours – including some very old people… and retired military men with the medals on display. They’ve set up a special line for old people, apparently. And now, they say people are coming into the city just to see the lines. It’s really quite remarkable. We all loved the queen, of course. But the depth of feeling is startling. I mean, she was famous and admired for keeping a stiff upper lip. But now, the English people are all crying and shivering with emotion.”

The Financial Times later reported that the line had stretched even further, and that people waited 24 hours to pay their respects. “We are all supposed to be modern, rational people,” continued our friend. “Almost none of us ever met the queen. And she had no real impact on our government, or our lives for that matter. But she was always there. And now that she is gone, we see that we had some profound connection with her. It is inexplicable in today’s cynical political culture… even less in the superficial culture of the Facebook era. But there it is.”

Diversity of Everything (but opinion): We saw no lines in London. Our taxi avoided them. What we saw was a changed city. Though we’ve been there many times since… and lived in London off and on… we couldn't help but compare the city to the one we visited for the first time in 1969.

London was drab, dreary – and white – back then. There were few immigrants. And none in major public roles. Today, that has changed. London must be the most prosperous and dynamic city in the world… with huge new buildings, architectural marvels of curving glass, leaning glass, or pointy glass. And on every street corner are what the English used to call ‘wogs.’

Of every hue and color… women in hijabs… brown men with beards… black men… tan men... Sudanese, Nigerian, South African… Zulu… Xhosa… Bihari… Bengali… Ceylonese… Iranians, Iraqis, Syrians…one of the unintended consequences of America’s ‘War on Terror’ was that it created 37 million refugees. Many of them seem to be here. Bus drivers, street sweepers, police, shopkeepers – a great many of them are ‘people of color.’

And they’ve risen to the highest levels. Ms. Truss’s cabinet is said to be the ‘most diverse in history.’ Women, men, gay, straight, black, white – everyone is welcome… as long as they all think the same thing.

From London, we drove out to Blenheim Palace. There, gathered on the vast lawns, were some 25,000 people and hundreds of horses. The crowd was almost all white. Only the horses were diverse. Some white. Some black or brown. Some mixed. And here – in “Three Day Eventing” – the equestrian world held one of its main contests. And while the course was treacherous, and full of obstacles, the playing field was level. Riding is one of the few sports where men and women compete on an equal footing. (This year’s winner was a young woman from Germany.)

Here, too, Elizabeth II was recalled. At noon, a bell rang at the palace. All went silent. Caps were doffed. All turned to look at the Union Jack, flying at half mast from the palace roof. Then, a woman’s voice came over the loudspeaker, singing “God Save the King.” A few minutes later, like a film restarted, people turned their eyes to the horses.

Thrills and Spills: The most exciting event is the ‘cross country.’ It is a track nearly 5 miles long, up hill and down, across the lake, over a collection of obstacles, all designed to spook the horses and confuse the riders. And it must be done at breakneck speed.

We found a good vantage point. The riders galloped by, one at a time, at full throttle. Down the hill they came… the horses’ nostrils flared… their hooves throwing up clumps of grass and dirt behind them… their backs sweaty from the exertion. And on their riders’ faces – many of them young women in their 20s – was a look of gritty determination mixed with absolute terror.

Without hesitation, the horses ran towards a hedge, on the other side of which was a muddy pond. When we ride our horses in Argentina, the horse will balk when he comes to a river crossing. He wisely stops and enters the water carefully; he doesn’t know how deep it is or what lies beneath the surface. But these horses leapt over the hedge… splashing into the water… jumping two more obstacles in the pond… and then racing up the hill on the opposite side.

“Breakneck speed” is not an exaggeration. The course was so difficult and dangerous that more than a dozen riders dropped out immediately. Others were disqualified when their horses refused to go on. Some must have felt a sense of relief. Perhaps they remembered what happened to ‘Superman,’ Christopher Reeves. He was at a riding event in Culpeper, Virginia, in the 1990s, when his horse fell and rolled back on him. He could never walk or even breathe normally again. Riders wear helmets and protective vests. But horses stumble, riders fall and necks are still broken from time to time.

Several times, the crowd gasped and held its breath. The announcer let us know that there had been an accident. There was a pause… a second… two seconds… and then came the announcement: “Both horse and rider are up and walking.” And the race went on. Doo dah."

The Daily "Near You?"

Robstown, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Are You Ready For Societal Winter?" (Excerpt)

"Are You Ready For Societal Winter?" (Excerpt)
by James Wesley Rawles

Excerpt: "Many of you reading this are ready for winter, both literally and figuratively. Your firewood is stacked and your kindling is split. Your barn is stacked full of hay. Your larder is crammed full of food. Your fuel tanks are topped off. And your home armory is “dialed-in”, with its walls comfortably stacked with ammo cans. But some of you reading this are not nearly so well prepared. Whether by lack of resolve or lack of resources, you aren’t ready for the manifold challenges of the 21st Century.

Winter is coming. "The Old Farmer’s Almanac" predicts that the winter of 2022-2023 will be harsh, for most of the country. And in Western Europe, the winter will surely be an uncomfortable one, since the Russians have embargoed natural gas.

Far worse than the predicted La Niña winter in North America, we are also entering what I term a Societal Winter: An era of rancorous discontent between political factions here in the United States that is replete with iciness, and dismissiveness, by The Powers That Be. With divisive “Woke” rhetoric and plenty of finger-pointing, people are feeling a lot less “United” these days. From my vantage point here in the rural Northern Rockies, it appeared that immediately after Joe Biden and his activist cabinet took office in D.C., the Mainstream Media (MSM) cranked the Acrimony knob all the way up to “11.” (For those not familiar, the 11 is a reference to the mockumentary "This Is Spinal Tap.") All signs now point to the advent of a deep and long Societal Winter."
View this complete and highly recommended article here:
Related:

Canadian Prepper, "Everyone Is Wrong: Prepare For Mass Military Mobilization"

Canadian Prepper, 9/19/22:
"Everyone Is Wrong: Prepare For Mass Military Mobilization"
Comments here:

"Why Are Walmart And Other Major US Retailers Canceling Billions Of Dollars In Orders As Summer Comes To An End?"

"Why Are Walmart And Other Major US Retailers Canceling 
Billions Of Dollars In Orders As Summer Comes To An End?"
by Michael Snyder

"Do they know something that they aren’t telling us? As you will see below, Walmart, Target and other major U.S. retailers are literally canceling billions of dollars in orders ahead of the coming holiday season. I have never heard of such a thing happening before, and under normal conditions it wouldn’t make any sense at all. The holiday season is typically the busiest time of the year for retailers, and at this time in 2021 there was actually a great deal of concern that there wouldn’t be enough inventory due to global supply chain problems. But now everything has changed. All of a sudden major retailers are feverishly canceling orders, and this would only make sense if a severe economic downturn was imminent.

For example, Walmart is admitting that it has canceled “billions of dollars in orders” as we approach the upcoming holiday season…"John David Rainey, Walmart’s EVP and CFO, said it had cleared most summer inventory, was reducing exposure in electronics, home and sporting goods, and canceled “billions of dollars in orders” to realign inventories. He said, “Our actions in Q3 will allow us to make significant progress toward rationalizing absolute levels and mix, which will enable our stores to be well positioned ahead of the holiday season.”

It is extremely odd that Walmart would decide to do such a thing. Recently I had an opportunity to stroll through a Walmart, and there were plenty of inventory holes. So what would make them suddenly cancel “billions of dollars” in orders that they thought that they were going to need for the holiday season? Perhaps some enterprising reporter will be willing to ask them such a question.

Meanwhile, we just learned that Target has also canceled “more than $1.5 billion” in orders…"Target said it had reduced its “inventory exposure in discretionary categories” throughout Q2 by canceling more than $1.5 billion of orders in these categories and marking down products." Target is much smaller than Walmart is, and so for Target to cancel so many orders is a really big deal.

And it turns out that Kohl’s and Under Armour have also been canceling large numbers of orders as well…"Kohl’s has also pulled back on order receipts and increased promotions to get through an inventory glut. “We have taken action to address inventory, including increasing promotions, being aggressive on clearing excess inventory and pulling back on receipts,” said Kohl’s CFO Jill Timm in a call with investors."

Under Armour also said it made some proactive cancellations due to supply chain constraints to ensure that “the right inventory was coming in at the right time,” said interim president and CEO Colin Browne in a call with investors.

These retailers are obviously scared that they will end up stuck with massive amounts of inventory that they cannot sell. Do they believe that economic activity during the months ahead will be much lower than they originally anticipated?

One corporate executive that is actually publicly admitting that he believes that a recession is coming is FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam…"FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday that he believes a recession is impending for the global economy. “I think so. But you know, these numbers, they don’t portend very well,” Subramaniam said in response to Cramer’s question of whether the economy is “going into a worldwide recession.” The CEO’s pessimism came after FedEx missed estimates on revenue and earnings in its first quarter. The company also withdrew its full year guidance. Sadly, he is right on target.

For months, I have been warning that the economic numbers were telling us that big trouble was on the way, and now everyone can see it. But unlike the “Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009, this time we are also going to have to deal with raging inflation even as economic activity slows down all around us.

In fact, the Wall Street Journal is ominously warning that U.S. consumers “are set to pay even more this winter” as heating costs continue to soar to absolutely ridiculous levels…"U.S. utility customers, faced with some of their largest bills in years, are set to pay even more this winter as natural-gas prices continue to climb. Natural-gas prices have more than doubled this year because of a global supply shortage made worse by the war in Ukraine, and they are expected to remain elevated for months as fuel is needed to light and heat homes during the winter. The supply crunch has made it substantially more expensive for utilities to purchase or produce power, and those costs are being passed on to customers."

The cost of living has been rising much faster than our paychecks have for quite some time now, and a lot more pain is on the horizon. I really like how Brandon Smith recently summarized the current state of the U.S. economy…"A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused."

That is so true. We are already in the midst of a raging economic crisis, but things will get so much worse during the months and years to come. Walmart, Target and other major retailers are working really hard to get prepared for what is coming. Are you? I hope so, because at this point it should be glaringly obvious to everyone that exceedingly challenging times are on the way."
Related:

"What’s The Meaning Of Life? It’s Right Here"

"What’s The Meaning Of Life? It’s Right Here"
by John Wilder

"What are we here for? It’s a big question, and one we have to ask now. Sadly, I think the answer for many people would be, “inexpensive Chinese-made throw pillows, new Marvel® movies, and the next iPhone®.”

For most of my life, it was a clear question that didn’t involve any of those things, except maybe affordable throw pillows, because they wear out so very quickly. At some point though, I figured it out. What was it? The meaning of life, or at least the abridged version. The existence of my generation, of any generation, was for two reasons:

First, to create the next generation. It’s the toughest and most fun work in the world. A family, working together, would do the best job possible at creating the best children possible. Why do we need those children? Why do they need to be better?

The “why” is the essence of the second reason. There are more challenges, literally an infinite set of challenges, that are before us. There are more horizons for us to conquer – we may have been to the Moon, but we don’t live there. We have sent robots to Mars, but we haven’t visited. Humanity has a job, and it has always been clear to me that our job was not yet done, at least not until we have developed a reliable way to make the PEZ®/Anti-PEZ™ drive (LINK).

Both of those answers rely on optimism. I think that optimism is justly earned. Even though humans have created unimaginable horrors, they have created, time and time again, amazing wonders. As Shakespeare’s Hamlet noted: "What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world, the paragon of animals!"

What I see today, however, isn’t the wonder of man, it’s the crisis we face with apprehension. It consists of multiple fronts.

Energy: Even though we are up against physical limits on the energy systems that we use, the idiocy of the Green Energy™ movement feels more like a mutual suicide pact. The use of energy, primarily since the Industrial Revolution has created the greatest amount of prosperity and well-being the world has ever seen. It is an absolute certainty that if the Leftists have their way, the amount of misery around the world will make World War II seem like a carnival ride. I mean, not a good carnival ride, but at least it would have Patton.

Family: One of the primary reasons for civilization in the first place is that it creates the basis for making itself better, and that basis is the family. Children are not easy to raise. Any single parent working by themselves would have been my victim. It took both Pa Wilder and Ma Wilder (along with my brother, John Wilder) to make me a better person than Feral John Wilder would have become. Family is important, and you can’t make good and strong children without one.

Morality: Morality is crucial. We have moved away from the moral basics that have created Western Civilization, and inverted them. We used to celebrate the beautiful, and now celebrate the ugly. And Pride Festivals®? Pride was a sin. And it still is. Unless it involves lions.

Who are the enemies? The Globalist Left: This is a big bunch, but they come in two flavors.

The Globalist Left - The Antifa Gang: These are people, who, generally despise themselves. They revel in ugliness, because they feel that they’re ugly inside. They look at society and hate it. They want to watch it all burn. They hate themselves, and want to make the world outside as horrifying as the world they hold inside themselves. This probably describes everyone that works at CNN®.

The Globalist Left – The Elite: They always seem to exist. They were there at the fall of Rome, they were there when the Library of Alexandria was sacked, when Russia became a killing ground, and when China killed uncountable millions. They appear to be the parasites that are jealous of real achievement and seek to game society so that they can come to power. They also appear to gravitate to power for the sake of power, and delight in the destruction of anything as long as it brings them wealth and comfort, even if it kills the host society.

Technology: I could go on all day, but there are two that jump out – they are the two most destabilizing technologies that exist today. Technology is difficult, because now it moves so quickly, but humans don’t adapt to it very quickly at all. I mean, VCRs existed and no one ever figured out how to stop the blinking 12:00.

Technology Itself – The Pill: To a certain extent, one of the big foes of humanity right now is our state of technological advancement itself. Multiple technological advances have created stresses that have never been seen before in human history. The first of these, The Pill, was a disaster. Some of the oldest rules to make society stable were about marriage and reproduction. Why? The stability of the family structure was ripped apart by The Pill, and the divorces started not long afterward.

Technology Itself – Social Media: When the printing press was originally invented, it opened a world where the knowledge of the entire history of mankind could be shared. When the Internet developed, all of that knowledge could be shared freely. Instead, the Internet has become a dopamine factory that is one of the most insidious narcissism trap in the history of humanity. What could have united us has, instead, created zombies of people who sit in restaurants staring at their phones rather than talking to each other and having authentic conversations. This has created a world with artificial closeness between people who have no connection, and artificial barriers between those who should be close.

Obviously, I could keep going. The enemies of that which is Right, True, and Good are legion. The methods they use are diverse. If I were writing a screenplay, I’d be wondering how I write myself out of this predicament. Thankfully, the answer is that I don’t have to. Western Civilization has defeated enemies just like these for thousands of years. We have been at the breaking point again and again. It is true, we won’t be the same after this crisis. There’s no guarantee that the crisis won’t last for decades. And I promise it really will be the most difficult thing that any of us live through. I mean, those of us that make it.

So, what are we here for? We’re here to carry the torch forward. To have wonderful children that exceed us in our capacity, because there are tough horizons, and more work to be done. We are building the people that will take us into the future. They are our children. We build them for the future, so that they can build the future, despite the obstacles and enemies of humanity. And we’ll win. We always have."
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"How It Really Is"

"It’s Time to Pay Up"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 9/19/22:
"It’s Time to Pay Up"
"There is a day of reckoning coming to everyone financially.
 People don’t want to admit this, but the day is here. It’s time to pay up."
Comments here: