Tuesday, September 29, 2020

"Continuing the Trend: 2020 to End in Chaos"

Click image for larger size.
"Continuing the Trend: 2020 to End in Chaos"
by Nathan McDonald

"It should come as no surprise to anyone that 2020 has been a year of sheer chaos, madness, and worldwide change the likes of which we have not seen in most people's living memory -that is unless you have been living under a rock. For those of you who were hoping this trend would change as the year progressed and headed towards closure, you are sadly going to be mistaken. The ending to this year of epic nonsense is only going to get worse. Much worse.

Possibly the Most Contested U.S. Elections of All Time: As the November 3rd presidential election rapidly approaches, people have finally begun to realize what I have stated since the end of last year, that this year's election will be dominated by violence and uncertainty, ending with literal blood in the streets. Both the far right and the radical left will ensure that this will be how 2020 ends, regardless of who takes home the "perceived" victory after the dust finally settles.

The Democrats and the Republicans have begun uttering their talking points, with President Trump recently dominating the headlines with his statements about the probability of mail-in ballot voter fraud. Mail-in voting has many concerned on the political right, as it has the possibility of being heavily abused.

Knowing this fact and how his base feels, President Trump alarmed many this week when he refused to acknowledge that there would be a "peaceful transfer of power" if he loses the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. As recently reported: When asked directly whether he would commit to a "peaceful transition of power," Trump responded, "We're going to have to see what happens." He went on to suggest that authorities "get rid of the ballots," an apparent reference to the huge uptick in votes cast by mail amid the coronavirus pandemic, adding that, if they did, "there won't be a transfer [of power], frankly. There will be a continuation."

Meanwhile, the Democrats have also stated that they are going to dispute the election results if Joe Biden loses, already putting into motion various game plans that will tie up the final results for weeks, if not months, possibly leading to a hung election.

Regardless of who is declared victorious or who is the one contesting the results, the fact remains that the United States will be in an extreme state of anarchy and limbo for many months to come. This is going to result in an ungodly number of riots, protests, violence, and destruction inside the world's largest economic and military power.

As the election results begin to trickle in on November 3rd, I believe a true feeling of dread will set in with the masses. It is then that you will see one side or the other in the streets, protesting and causing destruction on a near daily basis, with the Mainstream Media doing what they do best: exasperating the problems and pitting both sides against each other.

In Conclusion: The writing is on the wall and, sadly, I believe there is no turning back at this point. The divide between the far right and left within the United States has grown so vast that I believe we will have to hit a true boiling point before things ever return to normal again - if they even can. The damage will be great and the risk to the system will be vast in times of great unrest and upheaval.

Until next time, stay safe."

"The Only Thing Systematic Is The Destruction Of America" (Excerpt)

"The Only Thing Systematic Is The Destruction Of America"
Part 1(Excerpt)
by James Quinn

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something,
 when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” 
– Upton Sinclair

"Upton Sinclair was describing willful ignorance based upon who butters your bread. The rampant corruption of our society, as power has been consolidated into fewer and fewer hands, has resulted in our political, financial, cultural and economic systems being captured by a billionaire class who use their wealth to dictate the path we are forced to follow – or lose everything.

The sociopath class include the Silicon Valley social media titans, the billionaires running the six mainstream media companies, the rogue billionaires like Soros and Bloomberg who fund chaos and foment insurrection, the Deep State surveillance agency operatives like Clapper, Brennan, Comey and Mueller doing the bidding of the oligarchy, Wall Street criminals like Dimon, Paulson, and Blankfein doing god’s work, and last but certainly not least – Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and slimy Kashkari priming the pump for the never ending systematic pillaging of the nation’s wealth.

When you witness what passes for legislators at the Federal, State and Local levels, you must weep for our future. These pathetic excuses for leaders display none of the qualities a citizenry would want in those they have elected to manage our governmental affairs. They are bought off hacks, lacking any intellectual honesty, and selling their votes to the highest bidder. They lie, misinform, steal, and do the bidding of the monied interests who selected them because they are pliable dupes without an ounce of courage or forethought about the long-term best interests of the people they are supposed to be representing.

We are far from the republic Franklin and his fellow patriots gave us, and as Franklin foreshadowed, we were unable to keep it. As the fledgling republic devolved into a mob democracy, with the Federal government grabbing more power during the Civil War, the banking cabal seizing control of the nation’s finances in 1913 with the creation from Jekyll Island, the growth of the welfare state with FDR and LBJ doing the most damage, the metastasis of the military industrial complex, the elimination of privacy after the Patriot Act surveillance state execution, and now the final countdown to Armageddon as the state, media conglomerates, Wall Street criminals, mega-corporations, and billionaire oligarchs use this purposefully over-hyped flu pandemic to consolidate their power, wealth and control over a dumbed down, iGadget addicted, fearful, easily manipulated, compliant populace."

Please view this highly recommended and complete article here:

"How It Really Is"

 

"Helicopter Money and the End of Taxes"

"Helicopter Money and the End of Taxes"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"The system of collecting taxes and distributing the dough is a zero-sum game: each dollar of tax revenue paid by someone and given to someone else is one dollar that the taxpayer will no longer have to save or spend. Meanwhile, the recipient received a dollar that would not have been available without taxes.

State and local governments are still bound by this zero-sum game except for infrastructure spending funded by the sale of municipal bonds. These bonds are debt and must be paid back with interest. But as a general rule, the general funds of cities, counties and states are zero-sum: they can only spend what they collect in tax receipts.

As a result, the feeding frenzy at the public trough has winners and losers: taxpayers who receive fewer benefits than they pay in taxes are the losers, and residents / enterprises who get subsidies, tax breaks, entitlements, benefits in excess of what they paid in taxes are the winners.

Zero-sum: every corporate or individual welfare queen/king that mooches off the public trough as a result of skims and scams (gaming the system, lying, lobbying, legalized looting, etc.) deprives a legitimate recipient/program of scarce tax dollars, or deprives the taxpayers of a tax cut. The federal government has no restraint. The federal feeding trough can be refilled by deficit spending, i.e. selling Treasury bonds and blowing the proceeds on essentially limitless skims and scams.

Taxpayers naturally resent the skims and scams their hard-earned tax payments fund. Politicos are dimly aware of this resentment (dismissed as evil populism by the status quo's apparatchiks) and so they naturally seek to defuse this threat to their own skims and scams by giving free money to everyone and not just to their super-wealthy donors (in the form of bailouts, subsidies, tax breaks, no-bid contracts, etc.)

We've already had a taste of free money for everyone in the $1,200 giveaway earlier this year. There was also talk of dispensing with the individuals' share of Social Security/Medicare taxes (7.65% of earned income) for a limited time, but this created confusion because it was unclear if this was a temporary measure that would be due later or an actual freebie.

Clearly, this was a trial balloon for eliminating the Social Security/Medicare tax for low and moderate income households. Why collect $1,200 in SSA taxes and then hand the household $1,200? Why not just eliminate the tax?

Most households pay very little federal income tax as it is. The bottom 50% pay 1% of all federal income taxes, and the top 10% pay the majority of all income taxes. Declaring the first $50,000 or $60,000 of income per taxpayer as tax-free would not reduce tax revenues by much because the bottom 90% pay such a small percentage of income taxes.

If 90% of households don't pay federal income taxes, then they have no beef with who's feeding at the federal trough, as it's no longer zero-sum. There will be "free money" for everyone: corporate welfare galore, no income taxes for the bottom 90%, permanent unemployment payments for the chronically unemployed, Universal Basic Income (UBI) for everyone, even the top 10% (so they get something for free)-- helicopter money without limit.

As all the extremes of wealth/income inequality unravel, calls to "tax the rich" gain favor. The problem is that the super-rich have the political power to evade taxes, so the only people who will pay more will be the tax donkeys who aren't rich enough to hire teams of tax attorneys and buy tax breaks from desperate-for-campaign-cash politicos.

The idea of countering inequality by giving everyone free money seems painless as long as the Federal Reserve can create trillions out of thin air. And the basic idea of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) is the Treasury can create trillions without even selling Treasury bonds that accrue interest.

As I explained in "The Silent Exodus Nobody Sees: Leaving Work Forever" (9/23/20), all this free money (with a token giveaway to the remaining tax donkeys) will have unintended consequences:

1. The working poor who do the economy's hard, low-pay work will find ways to leave their life of poorly paid toil behind forever.

2. The tax donkeys will have tremendous incentives to cut their work and income down to the tax-free level. Why kill yourself to pay 50% of what you earn as taxes?

What kind of economy will we have when all the hard work becomes optional and a consequential percentage of the tax donkeys effectively "lay down their burdens"? All the "free money" will go to consumption, not production, and so the purchasing power of the "free money" will erode very rapidly. "This Is Why Inflation Will Rip Everyone's Face Off" (9/17/20)

The intrinsic unfairness of the status quo is undermining the willingness to keep contributing to it. Rather than right the ship, the "easy fix" is to distribute "free money"--not just to billionaires and corporations but to everyone. Simply put, work no longer pays. What pays is turning companies into debt-zombies to buy back shares and milking America's monopolies. (Contributor A.P. outlined how the system really works: "Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering" (6/11/20)

All those who believe this is a permanent, stable system will get a nice hard chair at the banquet of consequences. The dominoes are falling but distractions abound."

"Market Fantasy Updates 9/29/20"

"Market Fantasy Updates 9/29/20" 
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"The more I see of the monied classes, 
the better I understand the guillotine."
George Bernard Shaw
Gregory Mannarino,
AM 9/29/20 UPDATE:
 "Get Ready! The Stock Market Is Going To Move"

"Covid-19 Pandemic Update 9/29/20"

"An agonizing toll: One million people worldwide have now died from confirmed coronavirus cases. It is a staggering toll — greater than the number of people estimated to have died from malaria, influenza, cholera and measles, combined, over the same period. And the real number of coronavirus deaths is almost certainly higher. The U.S., with 4 percent of the world’s population, has suffered more than 20 percent of deaths.

In other virus developments:
• The White House pressured the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to downplay the risk of sending children back to school.
The U.S. spent 15 years preparing for a pandemic. How did it mishandle the coronavirus so badly? This video from Opinion explores what went wrong.

SEP 29, 2020 3:42 AM ET:
 Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak 
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 33,350,900 
people, according to official counts, including 7,176,535 Americans.

      SEP 29, 2020 3:42 AM ET: 
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
Updated 9/29/20, 3:23 AM ET
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"Seeing Through Pea Soup"

"Seeing Through Pea Soup"
by Jim Kunstler

"Just as Regan, the possessed tweenager in the horror movie classic, "The Exorcist", vomited streams of green sludge at Father Merrin in the final hours of her extremis, so, in the final weeks of election 2020, the possessed US news media will be boofing “bombshells” against its loathed and detested adversary, the president who attempted to exorcize the demons of the Deep State out of the federal government.

Thus, Democratic Party legal imp, Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, Jr., or someone on his staff, leaked (illegally) years of Mr. Trump’s tax information to The New York Times as a counterweight to last week’s Senate report on the international grifting exploits of Joe Biden & Family. The difference is that Mr. Trump’s doings represent compliance with the US tax codes while the Biden activities represent payoffs from shady figures in foreign lands for services rendered. The Times and its DNC patrons are calculating that the public will not understand the difference.

It’s whispered that The Times was hoping to unload the tax story much later in the campaign but needed desperately to provide some ammunition for Mr. Biden’s turn in the debating ring with the president on Tuesday night, when both these matters are sure to come up for review. That is, if Mr. Biden dares to show up. Those of you with a taste for history may recall the final hours of another Democratic eminence of yore, William Jennings Bryan, when he was vivisected on the witness stand by Clarence Darrow at the Scopes Trial in Dayton, Tennessee, 1925. Five days later, Bryan dropped dead, and his reputation as a humiliated old fool is much better remembered than his moment of glory in 1896 as a 36-year-old nominee for president (youngest ever).

If Joe Biden does show up at Tuesday’s debate, it will be under at least one severe disadvantage: the contest happens at night. Through the preceding weeks, Mr. Biden’s handlers have “put a lid” on his campaign activities at ten o’clock in the morning more days than not, and sometimes at eight-thirty a.m., before the press pool has even digested its oat-milk honey lattes. “A lid” means the candidate makes no appearances nor is available to the media that day. You have to wonder whether Ol’ White Joe can even function after sundown. Senile dementia typically presents more vividly in the evening. The Biden team may seek to counter that with doses of Adderall, an amphetamine. The side-effects are interesting: “mental / mood changes (such as agitation, aggression, mood swings, abnormal thoughts) uncontrolled movements, continuous chewing / teeth grinding, outbursts of words / sounds, prolonged erections (in males).” Watch for these.

Also watch to see whether Mr. Biden steps onstage wearing his trademark black mask. (Mr. Trump, of course, will not mask himself.) The optic will be two-fold: 1) Mr. Biden has something to hide, and 2) Mr. Biden is a weakling for playing up Covid hysteria. Then wait to see if he pulls the mask down under his chin as though he was acting the role of Abe Lincoln in a middle school history pageant. That will be a visual-to-remember! Also, wait for Mr. Biden to deliver a self-knockout punch to himself when he attacks the President’s Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, for being a Catholic.

There was an uproar of consternation across the red regions of the land on Sunday when Maria Bartiromo announced that US Attorney John Durham is unlikely to report any actions (i.e., indictments) before election day. There is a very good analysis at the news site RedState.com. It boils down to this: Mr. Durham and his fellow US Attorney on the case, Jeff Jensen, received testimony only ten days ago from an FBI agent named William Barnett which alleges in detail how DOJ rogue attorney Andrew Weissmann ran Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation as a “checking function” on the President. (Mr. Weissmann states this explicitly in his forthcoming book.) There is no constitutional basis for this so-called checking function. Rather, it suggests gross illegality. Days after William Barr was sworn in as Attorney General, the Mueller office was shut down. Mr. Barr, apparently, became aware of his old colleague, Robert Mueller’s, pronounced cognitive decline, and was indignant over the hijacking of his Special Counsel mission by Democratic Party activists on-staff. Now, with Mr. Barnett’s testimony, additional witnesses must be interviewed before any cases can be made. So, these matters will have to wait until after the election.

As a tactical election consideration, it is probably for the best, at this point, that there is no appearance of using the Durham investigation as a campaign weapon. It’s unfortunate that it took Mr. Durham so long to unravel the seditious intrigues of RussiaGate, but that only suggests how complex and far-ranging the scheme was, overlapping several agencies, the two houses of congress, and a host of sketchy characters outside of government. Mr. Trump will have to make his case for reelection by other means. Mr. Biden, or rather, his handlers and stand-ins, will make his case by any means."

Monday, September 28, 2020

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

Must Watch! “US Workers Destroyed; Economy Brutalized; Homeless Nightmare; Tent City; Economic Reckoning”

Jeremiah Babe,
“US Workers Destroyed; Economy Brutalized; 
Homeless Nightmare; Tent City; Economic Reckoning”

View in full screen mode.

Gregory Mannarino, "Central Banks Stand Ready! Expect Much More East Money"

Gregory Mannarino,
"Central Banks Stand Ready! Expect Much More East Money"
Related:

"Deutsche Bank Warns About A Sudden Economic Collapse & Stock Market CRASH!"

"Deutsche Bank Warns About A Sudden 
Economic Collapse & Stock Market CRASH!"
by Epic Economist

"According to economic experts, an economic collapse is looming and the new stock market crash is expected to happen before the elections. Recent studies have indicated the many elements that will likely undermine the financial markets over the next weeks and today we are going to analyze those determinants and discuss how they are going to affect the next chapters of the economic collapse. Keep with us and don't forget to like this video, share it with your friends, and subscribe to our channel if you haven't already.

Deutsche Bank disclosed to clients this week they can already “see an increased risk of financial disruption down the road from the growing overvaluation of assets and mounting debt levels.” 

Furthermore, Deutsche Bank gathered a team led by Peter Hooper, global head of economic research, to release the World Outlook Update, which predicted the pace of the recovery - or as we prefer to call, the calm before the storm - to slow as the viral cases will likely soar through the winter months, especially if another fiscal package isn't issued before the US elections. But the team anticipates that when the summer comes, and the vaccinations start to happen, the prospects of a restructuration could resume, and presuming there is a successful vaccine, the team foresees three-quarters of the world’s population could be vaccinated by mid-2023. 

However, don't expect the vaccine to fix the economy. Hooper alerts the virus will leave persistent scars in the markets, such as long-term damage to the hospitality industry, and automation is likely to take jobs away for good, meaning that a full recovery of the economy to pre-sanitary-outbreak levels may never happen. Also, the Deutsche Bank strategists, who can also see the looming financial crisis being formed by the growing overvaluation of assets, increasingly high debt levels which were driven by the massive fiscal and monetary policy stimulus granted by the Fed, outlined that “financial crises have often been touched off in the past under such conditions by the inevitable shift from policy ease to policy tightening, which is likely still at least several years away, but could surprise sooner.”

Conversely, the team called attention to the fact that politics may become a bigger threat than some might be considering, affirming they could see "significant risks of not getting a quick and clear resolution to the general elections this time around, with a likely unprecedented share of mail-in ballots and delays in counting holding the potential for a contested election”.

John Dizard explained in a recent article, the large banks "are far more risk-averse and better capitalized than in the past crisis, and the housing industry is prospering from the refinancing boom made possible by Fed easing. Since the Lehman/2008 financial collapse, risk has been moved off bank balance sheets and into securitization markets."

Which means, this time around the economic collapse will be triggered differently, and strategists are signaling that the spark for the coming financial crisis will be the market’s rejection of a few classes of securities, in a similar fashion to the 1929 collapse of pyramided securities holding companies. Thus, to discover what the point of vulnerability in the US financial markets could be, we have to take a look at "the least legally flexible credit securities that can move the fastest from low risk to visibly defaulted," as Dizard stressed.

And those would be the commercial mortgage-backed securities - or CMBS. As we mentioned in a recent video about the Big Short 3.0, the CMBX S9 BBB- tranche has an exposure to the hotel sector, which is the one presenting the highest rates of rental insolvency, paired with malls and restaurants. The tendency points for an acceleration on the deterioration of these securities to happen from now on, except in case a miraculous liquidity injection is issued by next month. 

In any case, by then, the market will see more and more triple A-tranches jumping down to BB, one of the same things that happened back in 2007-2008 when the last financial crisis started to speed up. Amongst the easiest targets of the byproducts of this crisis will be the major credit rating agencies, which downfall will severely reverberate in the real economy.

If you're one of those who still have hopes to see an economic upturn for this year, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but all things point to a bigger meltdown."

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Sea of Dreams”

 2002, “Sea of Dreams”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Magnificent island universe NGC 2403 stands within the boundaries of the long-necked constellation Camelopardalis. Some 10 million light-years distant and about 50,000 light-years across, the spiral galaxy also seems to have more than its fair share of giant star forming HII regions, marked by the telltale reddish glow of atomic hydrogen gas. The giant HII regions are energized by clusters of hot, massive stars that explode as bright supernovae at the end of their short and furious lives. 
Click image for larger size.

A member of the M81 group of galaxies, NGC 2403 closely resembles another galaxy with an abundance of star forming regions that lies within our own local galaxy group, M33 the Triangulum Galaxy. Spiky in appearance, bright stars in this colorful galaxy portrait of NGC 2403 lie in the foreground, within our own Milky Way.”

Chet Raymo, “At Home In An Infinite Universe”

“At Home In An Infinite Universe”
by Chet Raymo

“They are questions that bedeviled thinkers for thousands of years: Is the universe infinite or finite, eternal or of a finite age?  It is certainly hard to imagine a universe that extends without limit in every direction, or a universe without a beginning or end. It is equally difficult to imagine a finite universe; what is beyond the edge? Or a beginning or end in time; how can something come from nothing? how can what is cease to be?

The problems are so intractable philosophically that their resolution has generally been left to the theologians, which from a philosophical (or scientific) perspective offers no solution at all. Giordano Bruno was burned at the stake for proposing a philosophical resolution (an infinite universe) that offended theology.

An escape from befuddlement is provided by Einstein's theory of general relativity, which- for example- can describe a finite universe without a boundary, as the "two-dimensional" surface of a sphere is finite and without an edge. Unfortunately, multi-dimensional curved space-time is so counterintuitive that it is difficult to get one's head around it without mastery of the mathematics. Given a choice between the ancient myths of your local preacher and the obtuse mathematics of the physics professor, it's not hard to guess what most folks will opt for.

Meanwhile, I'm reading a meditation on infinity by physics professor Anthony Aguirre, in a collection of essays called Future Science. He discusses contemporary cosmological theories based on general relativity, and in particular the rehabilitation of the idea of an infinite and eternal universe, or, more precisely, that our universe might be just one of an infinity of infinite universes. He writes in conclusion: “What seems clear, however, is that infinity can no longer be safely ignored; beautifully constructed, empirically supported, self-consistent theories have brought infinity from idle curiosity to central player in contemporary cosmology. And if correct, the worldview these theories represent constitutes a perspective shift unlike any other: in comparison to the universe, we would be not just small but strictly zero. Well, I can't imagine many folks racing to embrace that conclusion.

Oh, but wait. Aguirre adds one final sentence: "Yet here we are, contemplating- if not quite understanding- it all.”
 Vangelis, “Cosmos: A Tour of the Universe”
Full screen mode suggested.

"Perhaps..."

“Perhaps all the dragons in our lives are princesses who are 
only waiting to see us act, just once, with beauty and courage.
 Perhaps everything that frightens us is, in its deepest essence, 
something helpless that wants our love.”

Read online “Letters to a Young Poet” by Rainer Maria Rilke here:

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “I Worried”

 “I Worried”

“ I worried a lot. Will the garden grow, 
will the rivers flow in the right direction, 
will the earth turn as it was taught,
 and if not how shall I correct it?

Was I right, was I wrong, will I be forgiven,
can I do better?
Will I ever be able to sing, even the sparrows
can do it and I am, well, hopeless.
Is my eyesight fading or am I just imagining it,
am I going to get rheumatism, lockjaw, dementia?

Finally I saw that worrying had come to nothing.
And gave it up. And took my old body
and went out into the morning, and sang.”

- Mary Oliver

"Fast Time and the Aging Mind"

"Fast Time and the Aging Mind"
By Richard A. Friedman

"Ah, the languorous days of endless summer! Who among us doesn’t remember those days and wonder wistfully where they’ve gone? Why does time seem to speed up as we age? Even the summer solstice — the longest, sunniest day of the year — seems to have passed in a flash. No less than the great William James opined on the matter, thinking that the apparent speed of time’s passage was a result of adults’ experiencing fewer memorable events: “Each passing year converts some of this experience into automatic routine which we hardly note at all, the days and the weeks smooth themselves out in recollection to contentless units, and the years grow hollow and collapse.”

Don’t despair. I am happy to tell you that the apparent velocity of time is a big fat cognitive illusion and happy to say there may be a way to slow the velocity of our later lives.

Although the sense that we perceive time as accelerating as we age is very common, it is hard to prove experimentally. In one of the largest studies to date, Dr. Marc Wittmann of the Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health, in Germany, interviewed 499 German and Austrian subjects ranging in age from 14 to 94 years; he asked each subject how quickly time seemed to pass during the previous week, month, year and decade. Surprisingly, there were few differences related to age. With one exception: when researchers asked the subjects about the 10-year interval, older subjects were far more likely than the younger subjects to report that the last decade had passed quickly.

Other, non-age-related factors influence our perception of time. Recent research shows that emotions affect our perception of time. For example, Dr. Sylvie Droit-Volet, a psychology professor at Blaise Pascal University, in France, manipulated subjects’ emotional state by showing them movies that excited fear or sadness and then asked them to estimate the duration of the visual stimulus. She found that time appears to pass more slowly when we are afraid.

Attention and memory play a part in our perception of time. To accurately gauge the passage of time required to accomplish a given task, you have to be able to focus and remember a sequence of information. That’s partly why someone with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder has trouble judging time intervals and grows impatient with what seems like the slow passage of time. The neurotransmitter dopamine is critically important to our ability to process time. Stimulants like Ritalin and Adderall, which increase dopamine function in the brain, have the effect of speeding up time perception; antipsychotic drugs, which block dopamine receptors, have the opposite effect.

On the whole, most of us perceive short intervals of time similarly, regardless of age. Why, then, do older people look back at long stretches of their lives and feel it’s a race to the finish? Here’s a possible answer: think about what it’s like when you learn something for the first time — for example how, when you are young, you learn to ride a bike or navigate your way home from school. It takes time to learn new tasks and to encode them in your memory. And when you are learning about the world for the first time, you are forming a fairly steady stream of new memories of events, places and people.

When, as an adult, you look back at your childhood experiences, they appear to unfold in slow motion probably because the sheer number of them gives you the impression that they must have taken forever to acquire. So when you recall the summer vacation when you first learned to swim or row a boat, it feels endless. But this is merely an illusion, the way adults understand the past when they look through the telescope of lost time. This, though, is not an illusion: almost all of us faced far steeper learning curves when we were young. Most adults do not explore and learn about the world the way they did when they were young; adult life lacks the constant discovery and endless novelty of childhood.

Studies have shown that the greater the cognitive demands of a task, the longer its duration is perceived to be. Dr. David Eagleman at Baylor College of Medicine found that repeated stimuli appear briefer in duration than novel stimuli of equal duration. Is it possible that learning new things might slow down our internal sense of time?

The question and the possibility it presents put me in mind of my father, who died a few years ago at age 86. An engineer by training, he read constantly after he retired. His range was enormous; he read about everything from astronomy to natural history, travel and gardening. I remember once discovering dozens of magazines and journals in the house and was convinced that my parents had become the victims of a mail-order scam. Thinking I’d help with the clutter, I began to bundle up the magazines for recycling when my father angrily confronted me, demanding to know what the hell I was doing. “I read all of these,” he said.

And then it dawned on me. I cannot recall his ever having remarked on how fast or slow his life seemed to be going. He was constantly learning, always alive to new ideas and experience. Maybe that’s why he never seemed to notice that time was passing.

So what, you might say, if we have an illusion about time speeding up? But it matters, I think, because the distortion signals that we might squeeze more out of life.

It’s simple: if you want time to slow down, become a student again. Learn something that requires sustained effort; do something novel. Put down the thriller when you’re sitting on the beach and break out a book on evolutionary theory or Spanish for beginners or a how-to book on something you’ve always wanted to do. Take a new route to work; vacation at an unknown spot. And take your sweet time about it."
Richard A. Friedman is a professor of clinical psychiatry and the director of the psycho-pharmacology clinic at the Weill Cornell Medical College.

“One Last Smile For My Old Friend”

Full screen mode suggested.
“One Last Smile For My Old Friend”
by Iain Burns

“This is the magical moment a dying chimpanzee recognizes her old friend and gives him an emotional farewell. Mama, the 59-year-old former matriarch at Royal Burgers Zoo in the Netherlands, was curled up in a ball and refusing food until the arrival of Professor Jan van Hooff, who she had known since 1972. At first she did not realize that her old friend had come to see her and remained on the floor as he stroked her. But her bond with Professor van Hooff – who co-founded her chimp colony at the Arnhem zoo – was deep enough to shake her from her gloom. The terminally ill chimp, who was fast approaching the end of her life, can be seen reacting with pure joy when she realizes who has come to see her. Mama screeched with delight and beamed with a smile while greeting the professor. Screeching with pleasure and smiling in delight, Mama can be seen stretching out her hand and stroking Professor van Hooff’s head in greeting. The video was filmed in April 2016. Mama died just a week after giving her old friend a heartfelt farewell.”

"We Were Wrong About Everything"

"We Were Wrong About Everything"
by Mark Manson

"Each week, I send you three potentially life-changing ideas to help you be a slightly less awful human being. This week, we’re talking about: 1) logical fallacies and how they’re the reason we can’t have nice things, 2) The Backfire Effect, or why more information makes us more polarized, and 3) things I’ve changed my mind about. Let’s get into it.

1. Logical fallacies - Readers often ask me where I get the ideas to write what I write. I think sometimes they expect some elaborate system with trunks full of notecards and some indexing software with an algorithm that cross-references everything I’ve ever read with a collection of cocktail napkins I’ve scribbled on.

It’s actually far simpler than that. I get hundreds of emails from readers per day. At some point, I start noticing patterns in those emails - people with similar problems, or people who make similar mistakes. These emails pile up and eventually I get sick of writing the same response over and over and say, "F**k it, let’s do an article."

One article I’ve wanted to do for months now is about logical fallacies - errors in reasoning and assumptions we make when we’re arguing about something. Given it’s 2020 and sh*t is hitting the fan and more people are emailing me crazy arguments than ever before, I figured an article on logic was long overdue. Check it out: "8 Logical Fallacies that Mess Us All Up" (or read it in the iOS app)

Logic doesn't usually cause people to need to change their underwear, but I hope you brought a spare pair anyway. It's an incredibly important but hugely under-read topic, so I sprinkled on some Manson flavoring for you. After all, tightening our reasoning skills prevents us from believing stupid things that are then pushed onto other people. Similarly, understanding logic helps defend us from other people’s bad ideas which, if you’ve ever used the internet, you might have noticed there are a few of them floating around out there.

2. When More Information Makes Things Worse - Last week, I wrote about how I believe social media gets blamed for what is actually just the sh*ttier aspects of human nature scaled across fast information networks known as the "internet." Actually, that’s what I tried to argue but I don’t think it came out that well. Some readers pushed back saying that even though social media may not be responsible for the litany of mental health and social problems that it gets blamed for, it’s still responsible for public discourse devolving into a cesspool of trolls, flame wars, and Twitter mobs.

In fact, Tristan Harris, the main focal point of the new Netflix documentary "The Social Dilemma," came out this week and said: "The only source of information for most people now is a machine that is designed to partially inform people, misinform people, spread conspiracy theories, and lies faster than facts."

And this is where I want to try my argument again because I think what Harris says is inaccurate. Social media algorithms do not manipulate and push users into believing awful things. People already believe the awful things and social media simply spreads them more easily. Critics like Harris imply that tech companies are sitting in Silicon Valley scheming for ways to extract more ad dollars from people’s anxiety and misinformation.

That’s a caricature of what really happens. Social media does not make us worse people. We already were terrible people. Rather, social media is the mirror that made that terribleness more widespread and apparent for everyone to see.

This is what I tried to say last week: we are not victims of some evil algorithms that cause us to think and feel in flawed ways. We think and feel in flawed ways already, the algorithms simply amplify those flaws like never before. This is why I wrote in "Everything is F*cked: A Book About Hope" that eventually, we will need algorithms that can compensate for our inherent psychological flaws, rather than simply reflect them back at us.

There are flaws in the idea that if Twitter and Facebook just showed better information, everything would be fine. How do I know this? Researchers have already tested it. A couple of years ago, researchers at the University of North Carolina ran an experiment. They took people with left-wing beliefs and right-wing beliefs and exposed them to opposing viewpoints on Twitter for a month. In all, they were exposed to over 700 messages and articles of viewpoints that differed from their own. At the end of the month, the researchers went back and surveyed the people again to see if their political views had become more moderate. They had not. In fact, they had become even more polarized than they were before.

This phenomenon has become known as "the backfire effect" - when people are exposed to information that challenges their current beliefs, they do not surrender their current beliefs. Instead, people become more convinced that they are right and others are wrong. In this way, it is possible that giving people more information and access to a wider diversity of ideas does not moderate beliefs or bring people together, but rather it fragments them and drives them apart further.

That’s not social media’s fault. That’s just human nature. Sure, Big Tech has profited off of it. But they also recognize the problem and have been quietly working towards addressing it. After all, destabilizing modern society and generating political crises is not good for any business.

3. What I’ve changed my mind about - In the spirit of challenging the natural tendency to double-down on false beliefs and remove the social stigma from changing one’s mind, I mentioned a few weeks ago that I wanted to periodically admit things that I have been wrong about and/or changed my mind about. I want to do this because I believe developing a culture where this is admired or at least respected is incredibly important if we’re going to survive in this day and age. So I encourage you to do it yourself periodically, as well.

Here’s what I’ve been wrong about:

• In crises, leadership matters. For a number of years, I’ve written that people focus too much on leaders they don’t like and instead ignore the larger social trends that are often dictating leaders’ unsavory behavior. I wrote this originally about Trump but it could have been written about many leaders around the world. I argued that leaders have less influence than people perceive. Well, what I didn’t realize when I wrote that was that this is probably only true in good times. When a crisis hits, leadership matters far more. Basic decisions of prioritization have widespread consequences. People look to someone to guide them morally and emotionally. And if your leader sucks, then shit is going to get bad. This is doubly painful because it’s often in crises that the biggest leaps in progress are made. Yet if you have incompetent leadership, that progress never comes, and you inevitably fall behind.

• Lockdowns are probably not effective. The data is in and a country’s ability to cope with the pandemic seems to have very little to do with how strict their quarantine was and far more to do with social norms (mask-wearing, distancing, etc.), population density, geography, and other, far more important policies around testing and tracing. In fact, widespread cheap testing and contact tracing seem to be the most effective policies and yet, in many countries, they are emphasized the least.

• I have not changed my mind about vaccines, but after enough emails from vaccine-skeptical readers, I have learned about various risks and policy errors associated with vaccines that I was not aware of before. I now understand some of the criticisms that are made and why some people are skeptical of using them for their families. That said, full-blown anti-vaxxers are still morons. It’s like refusing to ever wear a seatbelt because occasionally they’re installed incorrectly by car manufacturers and hurt people. The understanding of risk/reward is nonsensical. I still believe that vaccines have saved hundreds of millions of lives. And barring exceptional circumstances, you and your loved ones should still get them.

Also, some previous beliefs of mine that have been strengthened this year, in no particular order:
• Science and data should lead to policy decisions as much as possible. 

• Culture is quietly one of the most influential variables in determining the outcomes for populations, even though it is more taboo than ever to talk about it.

• A healthy and conscious attention diet is more important than ever before.

• The institutions in the US are more intractable and inefficient than even I had previously thought and it appears that things will likely have to get much worse here before they get better.

There are others, but let’s stop there before I start depressing everybody. This hasn't been a mind-changer per se, but the more time that goes on, the more convinced I become that many of the social ills that we associate with technology today are actually borne out of a deep, fundamental loneliness that has been generations in the making. I know that's not a very concrete observation, but it's where my intellectual nose is at. Until next week..."

The Daily "Near You?"

 

Tofino, British Columbia, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"We Were Made For These Times "

"We Were Made For These Times "
by Clarissa Pinkola Estes

"My friends, do not lose heart. We were made for these times. I have heard from so many recently who are deeply and properly bewildered. They are concerned about the state of affairs in our world now. Ours is a time of almost daily astonishment and often righteous rage over the latest degradations of what matters most to civilized, visionary people. 

You are right in your assessments. The lustre and hubris some have aspired to while endorsing acts so heinous against children, elders, everyday people, the poor, the unguarded, the helpless, is breathtaking. Yet, I urge you, ask you, gentle you, to please not spend your spirit dry by bewailing these difficult times. Especially do not lose hope. Most particularly because, the fact is that we were made for these times. Yes. For years, we have been learning, practicing, been in training for and just waiting to meet on this exact plain of engagement. 

I grew up on the Great Lakes and recognize a seaworthy vessel when I see one. Regarding awakened souls, there have never been more able vessels in the waters than there are right now across the world. And they are fully provisioned and able to signal one another as never before in the history of humankind. 

Look out over the prow; there are millions of boats of righteous souls on the waters with you. Even though your veneers may shiver from every wave in this stormy roil, I assure you that the long timbers composing your prow and rudder come from a greater forest. That long-grained lumber is known to withstand storms, to hold together, to hold its own, and to advance, regardless. 

In any dark time, there is a tendency to veer toward fainting over how much is wrong or unmended in the world. Do not focus on that. There is a tendency, too, to fall into being weakened by dwelling on what is outside your reach, by what cannot yet be. Do not focus there. That is spending the wind without raising the sails. 

We are needed, that is all we can know. And though we meet resistance, we more so will meet great souls who will hail us, love us and guide us, and we will know them when they appear. Ours is not the task of fixing the entire world all at once, but of stretching out to mend the part of the world that is within our reach. Any small, calm thing that one soul can do to help another soul, to assist some portion of this poor suffering world, will help immensely. It is not given to us to know which acts or by whom, will cause the critical mass to tip toward an enduring good. 

What is needed for dramatic change is an accumulation of acts, adding, adding to, adding more, continuing. We know that it does not take everyone on Earth to bring justice and peace, but only a small, determined group who will not give up during the first, second, or hundredth gale. 

One of the most calming and powerful actions you can do to intervene in a stormy world is to stand up and show your soul. Soul on deck shines like gold in dark times. The light of the soul throws sparks, can send up flares, builds signal fires, causes proper matters to catch fire. To display the lantern of soul in shadowy times like these, to be fierce and to show mercy toward others; both are acts of immense bravery and greatest necessity. 

Struggling souls catch light from other souls who are fully lit and willing to show it. If you would help to calm the tumult, this is one of the strongest things you can do. 

There will always be times when you feel discouraged. I too have felt despair many times in my life, but I do not keep a chair for it. I will not entertain it. It is not allowed to eat from my plate.  The reason is this: In my uttermost bones I know something, as do you. It is that there can be no despair when you remember why you came to Earth, who you serve, and who sent you here. The good words we say and the good deeds we do are not ours. They are the words and deeds of the One who brought us here. In that spirit, I hope you will write this on your wall: When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for." 

Dr Clarissa Pinkola Estes is an American poet, post-trauma specialist and Jungian psychoanalyst, and the author of "Women Who Run With the Wolves."