"What Could Go Awry?"

"What Could Go Awry?"

by Charles Hugh Smith

"What a remarkable moment in time: every asset is lofting higher, with no limits in sight. The path ahead is already well-scouted: the U.S. economy will add a million jobs a month until the cows come home, Covid will continue fading until it basically disappears as an issue, the dollar and volatility will continue their death-march toward zero (good for risk assets), oil and commodities are entering a new super-cycle of growth, as are stocks, bonds (now that pesky yields are falling), cryptocurrencies and housing-- all are entering super-cycles of high growth and essentially limitless expansion of speculative gains.

It's dreadful having a skeptical default setting, but there you have it: what could go awry? Seemingly nothing. Everything's accounted for and for anything out of the blue, we have the trusty Fed Put, the Federal Reserve's implicit promise to crush any spot of bother with a wall of freshly issued dollars and near-infinite credit. Look on our works, ye Mighty, and despair, for we are the greatest power in the Universe! Resistance is futile, and so on. Indeed.

Since we're in an era in which speculators in any asset can't possibly lose, it's no surprise that punters are borrowing buckets of cash to increase their stake in the casino's can't lose gaming tables. The chart of margin debt offers an instructive history of can't lose speculative borrowing.

Margin debt is money borrowed from brokers against the collateral of stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, etc. The more your portfolio rises, the more money you can borrow on margin because your collateral is rising. Let's start with the sad, pathetic pre-speculative Stone Age of the 1950s, 60s and 70s, dreary decades of rapid economic expansion and higher wages but dismally low levels of margin debt. The poor cave-creatures back then made little use of margin debt because their lives were an unending misery of risk. Back in that Dark Age, stock market participants could actually lose money - oh the horror!

The Black Death of risk roamed the land unhindered, until the all-mighty Federal Reserve established its impregnable fortress of the Fed Put: every market decline will be crushed, and speculators will be rewarded. And so the glorious age of Speculative Mania began. The rules to guaranteed gain were simple:

1. Buy every dip, as the Fed Put would soon reverse any decline.

2. Borrow as much money as possible and throw it onto the gambling tables because the larger your bets, the greater your gains.

With risk vanquished, everyone who embraced speculation became a winner - a big winner. Only chumps didn't buy GameStop calls and reap a quick $250,000 or more in a few weeks. And so margin debt soared and speculators prospered. All was right with the world. But then inexplicably, some sort of glitch occurred and the dot-com euphoria popped and stocks actually dropped. Punters received the dreaded margin call for cash or they had to liquidate their positions to reduce their margin debt.

Stocks soon recovered, and easy-to-borrow money flooded into housing and stocks, lifting markets to new euphoric heights. Another inexplicable glitch occurred, however, and that bubble popped, too, with extremely awkward consequences - the Global Financial Meltdown. But after the Fed tossed around a few tens of trillions of dollars in backstops, guarantees, mortgage purchases, bond-buying, lines of credit for any bank that faced losses, and so on, that strange interlude ended and margin debt and speculative gains continued their march to new heights of glory and guaranteed gains.

Which brings us to the present unprecedented levels of margin debt and can't lose speculative mania. Everyone is supremely confident that inexplicable glitches are now impossible, and nothing can possibly go awry on the path to new super-cycles of growth and speculative gains.

All of which sounds very pretty indeed, but it does raise a question: can risk really be destroyed, or can it only be transferred? And if it can only be transferred, then what's it been transferred to? The only possible answer appears to be the financial system itself. But never mind skeptical questions, the Fed Put is now the greatest power in the Universe and so speculative gains are guaranteed, forever and ever."

"'Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'

Nothing beside remains. Round the decay

Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare

The lone and level sands stretch far away."

- https://www.oftwominds.com/

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/8/21: "ALERT! The Economic Meltdown Is AGAIN Getting Worse"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/8/21:

"ALERT! The Economic Meltdown Is AGAIN Getting Worse"

- https://traderschoice.net/

○

Related:

"This Economic Depression Has Left Very Deep 

Economic Scars All Over America" (Excerpt)

By PatriotRising 

"The last 12 months have been pure hell for the U.S. economy. According to Oxxford Information Technology, approximately 4 million U.S. businesses permanently closed their doors in 2020. We have never seen that many businesses wiped out in such a short period of time in the entire history of our country. Meanwhile, we have seen a tsunami of unemployment that has been absolutely unprecedented. More than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits have been filed during the pandemic, and the number of new claims each week continues to hover at a level that is about three times as high as we witnessed before the pandemic. Currently, the Economic Policy Institute is telling us that “25 million American workers are either unemployed, underemployed or have pulled out of the workforce entirely”. This economic depression has already been extremely painful, and many experts believe that a whole lot more economic pain is still on the horizon."

Please view this complete article here:

- https://patriotrising.com/

"How It Really Is"

Same as it ever was...

Must Watch! “The Economic Reset Is Happening Now; Ominous Signs Of A Sick Economy; Small Businesses Eaten Alive”

Full screen!

Jeremiah Babe,

“The Economic Reset Is Happening Now; 

Ominous Signs Of A Sick Economy; Small Businesses Eaten Alive”

"Retail Apocalypse: $100 Billion In Losses Trigger New Wave Of Bankruptcies & Mass Store Closures"

Full screen recommended.

"Retail Apocalypse: $100 Billion In Losses Trigger 

New Wave Of Bankruptcies & Mass Store Closures"

by Epic Economist

"The retail apocalypse continues to rip through America in 2021, threatening to shutter thousands of stores and lead to a new wave of bankruptcies. According to recent estimates, the number of store closings this year will rise above the figures seen in 2020, and roughly 1 in 4 U.S. malls might cease to exist as the consumer shift toward e-commerce accelerates the downfall of brick-and-mortar locations. At this point, more than 8,000 stores have permanently closed doors, and at least 1,000 more closures are expected to occur over the next few months. Moreover, as experts forecast that $100 billion in merchandise is going to be returned, the worse is yet to come for the sector, whose revenue has been dramatically and continuously plunging by the day. That's what we're going to expose in this video.

According to a recent UBS analysis, the U.S. is on the verge of losing 10,000 more stores this year. So far, retailers have confirmed more than 1000 store closures to occur in the next few months. The estimates for closings in 2021 stand considerably above the 8,000 store shutdowns registered in 2020. The report also outlined that considering the online shopping trend has sharply risen and will continue to do so, approximately one in every 11 stores will close in the next five years. The UBS analysts revealed that in the best-case scenario, the U.S. will lose almost 81,000 retail locations over that span, but in the most dire scenario, it could lose more than twice as many stores - almost 150,000 in total.

According to real estate data firm Green Street, foot traffic at malls has fallen about 30% from a year ago, which means brick-and-mortar revenue will remain compromised, and, more concerningly, according to a study from Coresight Research, approximately one-quarter of American malls will cease to exist in the next three-to-five years. Moody's Analytics anticipates that nearly 135 million square feet of space at regional malls will become available during that time.

Shopping mall owners are having to face a debt mountain as tenants grow increasingly unable to afford rent. That, in turn, is rapidly aggravating the commercial real estate collapse, and the sector now has hundreds of billions in distressed loans. An updated list of store closures scheduled to occur in the next couple of months was just released by Business Insider. The list includes an additional 60 Disney store closures - a move that will affect 20% of Disney's 300 global retail stores and lead to mass lay-offs.

But the company declined to say how many people will be impacted. In January alone, the retail apocalypse has already triggered four more bankruptcies, including women’s clothier Christopher & Banks. However, the main difference between this year and last year is that despite the forecast of higher rates of bankruptcy, store closings rate will be so staggering that will outnumber bankruptcy filings. The firm reported that "36% of retailers plan to eliminate their floor space as a means of cost optimization and 31% intend to reduce their mall-based locations".

On top of all that, many industry specialists have been highlighting that the number of returns experienced by troubled retailers could become their tipping point toward bankruptcy. A survey from the National Retail Federation shows that consumers returned nearly $428 billion in merchandise last year, which accounts for 10.6% of total U.S. retail sales in 2020 as a whole. At this point, retailers anticipate that 13.3% of merchandise sold during the holiday shopping season - representing an estimated cost of $101 billion - will be returned. The profit losses and the recent supply chain disruptions are also expected to hit those that are struggling.

It is clear that the sector isn't out of the woods yet. Instead, the U.S. retail apocalypse continues to be aggravated and to weigh upon the commercial real estate collapse. A new round of widespread closures and bankruptcy filings will also be translated into fewer jobs in an economy that already has 10 million unemployed people. Unfortunately, the long-awaited reopening will not mean a recovery is coming next. The truth is that we're bound to enter an era of endless systemic failures, and you should keep tuned with the turn of events that are leading America to The Everything Collapse, here, on Epic Economist."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/7/21: "Today's Message From The Fed: There Is No End Of Easy Money For the Market"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/7/21:

"Today's Message From The Fed: 

There Is No End Of Easy Money For the Market"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Musical Interlude: Pink Floyd, "Shine On You Crazy Diamond"

Pink Floyd, "Shine On You Crazy Diamond"

"A Look to the Heavens With Chet Raymo, 'The Journey'”

Click image for larger size.

“The Journey”

by Chet Raymo

“Here’s a Sloan Digital Sky Survey map of the universe. This Sloan Digital Sky Survey map of the universe is 2 billion light-years deep. Each point represents a galaxy with a measured redshift. Maps like this have revealed the signature of enormous sound waves rippling through the early universe.

A smoke of galaxies! (2 trillion galaxies according to latest estimates.- CP) A universe cobwebbed with Milky Ways! Each galaxy itself a smoke of stars, hundreds of billions of stars, many or all of them with planets. My book, “Walking Zero,” is about the human journey from the omphalos of our birth into the world of the galaxies, a journey many of us are disinclined to make. Here is how the Prologue to the book begins:

“Each of us is born at the center of the world. For nine months our physical selves are assembled molecule by molecule, cell by cell, in the dark covert of our mother’s womb. A single fertilized egg cell splits into two. Then four. Eight. Sixteen. Thirty-two. Ultimately, 50 trillion cells or so. At first, our future self is a mere blob of protoplasm. But slowly, ever so slowly, the blob begins to differentiate under the direction of genes. A symmetry axis develops. A head, a tail, a spine. At this point, the embryo might be that of a human, or a chicken, or a marmoset. Limbs form. Digits, with tiny translucent nails. Eyes, with papery lids. Ears pressed like flowers against the head. Clearly now a human. A nose, nostrils. Downy hair. Genitals.

As the physical self develops, so too a mental self takes shape, not yet conscious, not yet self-aware, knitted together as webs of neurons in the brain, encapsulating in some respects the evolutionary experience of our species. Instincts impressed by the genes. The instinct to suck, for example. Already, in the womb, the fetus presses its tiny fist against its mouth in anticipation of the moment when the mouth will be offered the mother’s breast. The child will not have to be taught to suck. Other inborn behaviors will express themselves later. Laughing. Crying. Striking out in anger. Loving.

What, if anything, goes on in the mind of the developing fetus we may never know. But this much seems certain: To the extent that the emerging self has any awareness of its surroundings, its world is coterminous with itself. We are not born with knowledge of the antipodes, the plains of Mars, or the far-flung realm of the galaxies. We are not born with knowledge of Precambrian seas, the supercontinent of Pangea, or the Age of Dinosaurs. We are born into a world scarcely older than ourselves and scarcely larger than ourselves. And we are at its center.

A human life is a journey into the grandeur of a universe that may contain more galaxies than there are cells in the human body, a universe in which the whole of a human lifetime is but a single tick of the cosmic clock. The journey can be disorienting; our first instincts are towards coziness, comfort, our mother’s enclosing arms, her breast. The journey, therefore, requires courage – for each individual, and for our species.

Uniquely of all animals, humans have the capacity to let our minds expand into the space and time of the galaxies. No other creatures can number the cells in their bodies, as we can, or count the stars. No other creatures can imagine the explosive birth of the observable universe 14 billion years ago from an infinitely hot, infinitely small seed of energy. That we choose to make this journey – from the all-sustaining womb into the vertiginous spaces and abyss of time – is the glory of our species, and perhaps our most frightening challenge.”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “The Journey”

“The Journey”

“One day you finally knew

what you had to do, and began,

though the voices around you

kept shouting

their bad advice -

though the whole house

began to tremble

and you felt the old tug

at your ankles.

“Mend my life!”

each voice cried.

But you didn’t stop.

You knew what you had to do,

though the wind pried

with its stiff fingers

at the very foundations,

though their melancholy

was terrible.

It was already late

enough, and a wild night,

and the road full of fallen

branches and stones.

But little by little,

as you left their voices behind,

the stars began to burn

through the sheets of clouds,

and there was a new voice

which you slowly

recognized as your own,

that kept you company

as you strode deeper and deeper

into the world,

determined to do

the only thing you could do -

determined to save

the only life you could save.”

- Mary Oliver

The Daily "Near You?"

Hanna, Wyoming, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

“Incidit In Scyllam Cupiens Vitare Charybdim”

“Incidit In Scyllam Cupiens Vitare Charybdim”

by Steve Candidus

“One of the great things about ancient Greek Mythology is that the stories all teach a lesson. They don’t end with – and the moral of the story is – though. They leave it to the reader to figure them out. So in addition to being just plain fun to read they are wonderful teachers about life. Perhaps the best thing about this one is that we still use the expression it contains exactly the same way that the ancient Greeks intended it almost 3,000 years ago. That almost never happens. Language is fluid and the meanings of words and expressions changes from one generation to another, but this one is an exception. The everyday expression it contains is one that we often refer to without really knowing where it came from.

This is one of the tales of Odysseus who was the heroic king of Ithaca and of whose ten-year journey back to Greece after the Trojan War was immortalized in Homer’s ‘Odyssey’. There was a point in his journey when his ship had to enter a narrow strait. It was a passage so narrow that it could only be made under special conditions. They had to have both the wind at their backs and the current in their direction. However, once committed it was impossible to turn back.

Unknown to the sailors the strait was guarded by two deadly perils. On the one side, it was guarded by Scylla. Scylla was a six-headed monster that disguised itself as a rock. On the other side, it was guarded by Charybdis, a terrible deadly whirlpool born of the sea god Poseidon.

In olden times, it was common to refer to any place that a ship came to rest on land as being in a hard place. It didn’t matter if it was blown on shore by a storm, grounded on a reef or brought up intentionally for repair. If it was on shore, it was on a hard place as opposed to the soft place – water.

It also applied to a ship that had foundered. A ship that sinks will eventually rest on the bottom. The land at the bottom of the ocean is therefore called a hard place. It used to be a common term, but it has since pretty much fallen out of practice in common language today. A deadly whirlpool such as Charybdis could take a ship and send it straight to the bottom – a hard place.

So, now as we return to the story of Odysseus we see that their ship had entered a narrow strait and that strait was guarded by two evil perils with hardly enough room for a ship to pass between them. They were forced to choose between the six headed monster ‘Scylla’ disguised as a rock or the dreaded whirlpool ‘Charybdis’ that would surely send them to a hard place and they could not turn back.

There is a Latin proverb from this story, “Incidit in Scyllam cupiens vitare Charybdim” which translates to, “He runs on Scylla, wishing to avoid Charybdis.” In modern day English, we simply say, “They were between a rock and a hard place”. And now you know…”

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

"Questioned By Life..."

“It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist, not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual…

There is also purpose in life which is almost barren of both creation and enjoyment and which admits of but one possibility of high moral behavior: namely, in man’s attitude to his existence, an existence restricted by external forces. When a man finds that it is his destiny to suffer, he will have to accept his suffering as his task. He will have to acknowledge the fact that even in suffering he is unique and alone in the universe. No one can relieve him of his suffering or suffer in his place. His unique opportunity lies in the way in which he bears his burden…

What matters, therefore, is not the meaning of life in general, but rather the specific meaning of a person’s life at a given moment…

Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms – to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way…

Ultimately, man should not ask what the meaning of his life is, but rather must recognize that it is he who is asked. In a word, each man is questioned by life; and he can only answer to life by answering for his own life; to life he can only respond by being responsible.”

- Viktor E. Frankl, “Man’s Search for Meaning”

"I Hope..."

“I hope that my achievements in life shall be these -

that I will have fought for what was right and fair,

that I will have risked for that which mattered,

that I will have given help to those who were in need,

and that I will have left the earth a better place for

what I’ve done and who I’ve been.”

- C. Hoppe

“I have undertaken a labor, a labor out of love for the world, and to comfort noble hearts: those that I hold dear, and the world to which my heart goes out. Not the common world do I mean, of those who (as I have heard) cannot bear grief and desire but to bathe in bliss. (May God then let them dwell in bliss!) Their world and manner of life my tale does not regard: it’s life and mine lie apart. Another world do I hold in mind, which bears together in one heart its bitter sweetness and its dear grief, its heart’s delight and its pain of longing, dear life and sorrowful death, dear death and sorrowful life. In this world let me have my world, to be damned with it, or to be saved.”

- Gottfried Von Strassburg

"The Feds’ Dumbbell Monetary Experiment"

"The Feds’ Dumbbell Monetary Experiment"

By Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yesterday, we argued that the U.S. is in decline. But if it is declining, it must be declining against something else. What? We don’t have to tell you, Dear Reader. You already know. Here’s the latest from The Wall Street Journal: "China Creates its Own Digital Currency, a First for Major Economy." "A thousand years ago, when money meant coins, China invented paper currency. Now the Chinese government is minting cash digitally, in a re-imagination of money that could shake a pillar of American power.

It might seem money is already virtual, as credit cards and payment apps such as Apple Pay in the U.S. and WeChat in China eliminate the need for bills or coins. But those are just ways to move money electronically. China is turning legal tender itself into computer code. […] China’s version of a digital currency is controlled by its central bank, which will issue the new electronic money. It is expected to give China’s government vast new tools to monitor both its economy and its people. […] The money itself is programmable. Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump-start. It’s also trackable, adding another tool to China’s heavy state surveillance."

More Control: As far as we can tell, almost all money today is nothing more than electronic notations. We buy a cup of coffee. We tap our debit card on the little machine. Somehow, one account is debited and another credited. We can later see a record of it to confirm that what happened was what we thought happened. But apart from the “information,” nothing has changed hands.

A “digital currency” might not change much. The transaction would remain the same, with information passed electronically from one bank to another. But as The Wall Street Journal notes, China’s new digital currency gives the government more control over the electrons. It will be able to decide who gets them… and who doesn’t. This is a major experiment, and one that the U.S. will want to follow closely. Having money that comes directly from the Federal Reserve would give the federales whole new opportunities for mischief.

New Powers: What’s more, in the U.S., gaining tighter control over “money” may soon be a matter of desperate national importance. In the modern world, a nation rises in wealth and power by providing goods and services. In this regard, China has set new records – leaping from a hopeless backwater to a great world power in just a single generation. It did so by producing things on a gargantuan scale. This output was sold to people in other countries. They paid with “money,” which passes, typically, from the declining power to the rising one.

How this new digital money will work out for China, we have no idea. It’s new. Never been tried. If it is stable, and backed by a sensible, reliable government, perhaps it will catch on… and help the Chinese attract more capital and become even richer and more powerful. Perhaps this new currency will cause other nations to dump the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and switch to China’s new money. Or perhaps the Chinese feds will be tempted to use their new powers the way bullies and bureaucrats always do… to stifle entrepreneurs, mislead businesses, and dull the sharp, dynamic edge that has been so successful for the Chinese so far. Again, we don’t know.

Bribes and Scams: But meanwhile, back in the USA… the feds are conducting their own monetary experiment. They’re seeing how much gas they can pump into an old-fashioned, “fiat” money (with no gold backing) system before the whole shebang blows up. This is an experiment that has been run before – many times. We believe we know how it will work out.

U.S. debt crossed the $28 trillion mark last month… And the Biden Team has just proposed the most expensive boondoggle in U.S. history, advertising that it would help us to “win the global competition with China.” The foolishness and boondogglishness of the latest “infrastructure” proposal is almost comic. There is little infrastructure in it… and what is in it shouldn’t be. Except for the interstate highways, infrastructure is a matter for local communities and businesses, not for the feds.

It is really just a monstrous grab-bag full of giveaways, payoffs, bribes, and scams. And each one of these boondoggles squanders real resources, energy, and time. A few insiders get richer, but everybody else ends up poorer. “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,” said Napoleon. The Chinese haven’t said a word.

Handy Alternative: In the feds’ fantasy world, money is unlimited. But in the real world, time and resources are not. And as the feds print more “money,” the rising tide of new dollars lifts prices for cement, soybeans, diapers, milk, houses, stocks, Graham crackers, tennis rackets, taxi fares… practically everything. At least, that was the outcome every other time this experiment was run.

And by introducing a new currency, the Chinese could be hitting the U.S. where it is most vulnerable. The U.S. feds can control many elements in their fantasy world. They can create “money” out of thin air. They can create make-work jobs. They can increase ersatz “demand” – by giving away more fake money. They can goose up stock prices… and suppress interest rates. The thing they can’t do is control the value of their phony-baloney dollars. And when it becomes more obvious that the morons have lost control of the dollar, the new digital yuan may look like a handy alternative."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"How It Really Is"

 

Quote intentionally...

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Isn't this curious?

"The China Question"

"The China Question"

by The Zman

"A popular topic among Sinophiles since the installation of Joe Biden as president is the possibility of war with China over the status of Taiwan. The Chinese have been obsessed with Taiwan since Mao. With the American empire in sharp decline and the Biden regime unpopular at home and abroad, now could be the perfect time for the Chinese to make their move. As John Derbyshire is fond of pointing out, “Taiwan is like two feet from China … We are eight thousand miles away.”

While there is little doubt that China could retake Taiwan whenever it likes, the cost would be extremely high. For starters, Taiwan and the US have been preparing for such a move for generations. Some of the most sophisticated early warning systems on earth are installed in Taiwan specifically keep an eye on China. There is the very strong possibility that Taiwan has underground missile systems capable of reaching targets on the mainland in the event of an attack by China.

Whether or not the US would actually go to war to defend Taiwan is debatable, but that is the official position. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia are also technically committed to the defense of Taiwan. An all-out assault on Taiwan could very well result in attacks on Chinese infrastructure along the coast. It would most certainly result in massive economic retaliation. The Chinese regime would be forced to explain to her people why they are suddenly poor again.

Of course, the Chinese could counter with attacks on Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. Her navy is the largest in the world now, even if it lacks the forward capability of the American empire. It could deliver attacks on her neighbors, including Hawaii. In an all-out war, she could attack the west coast of the United States with submarine based missiles. The point is, China is not Iraq, some pipsqueak the US military can kick around without consequences.

That reality, however, is why such a full-blown confrontation is unlikely. Despite what many believe, China is hooked on the dollar like the rest of the world. She cannot afford war with the US at this time. The reason the Chinese flooded the American election system with cash in 2020 is the Trump administration was causing real problems for the Chinese with their trade policies. No one can be sure if the Covid plague China unleashed was an accident, but you cannot rule it out.

The point being is that an economic war with the American empire would be catastrophic for the Chinese economy. The usual suspects love crowing about the Chinese economy, but her per capita GDP is $10,839. That is down there with Costa Rica and Bulgaria. China has a lot of poor people. The rich people she has are obligated to make sure those poor are provided with the basics. The iron rice bowl is a real thing, and the Chinese regime takes it very seriously.

There is also the fact that China is smart. She can take the long view with Taiwan as she knows in a generation the American empire will be gone. Given the physical condition of the ruling class and the mental condition of the probable successors, the American empire will be out of Asia in a decade. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia all know this and have been planning accordingly. China can just bide her time and Taiwan will come to her, hat in hand.

There is also the possibility this happens much quicker. It is clear to the world that Joe Biden is non compos mentis. Whoever is calling the shots is not bothering to consult the White House. This is why there is a crisis in the Ukraine. Someone from the semi-permanent ruling class encouraged Kiev to declare her intention to retake the Crimea, which has resulted in a stand-off with the Russians, who have no intention of allowing Ukraine to make any moves on the Crimea.

Then there is the dispute over Nord Stream 2, the new natural gas pipeline being built to supply western Europe. Shadowy financial interests in the American empire have been trying to stop this project for a long time. Biden administration figures have been dispatched to Europe to deliver a message from those shadowy financial interests that the Washington regime will pull out all the stops to prevent this project. This is further undermining the credibility of the Biden regime.

From the Chinese perspective, she has no reason to make any moves on Taiwan, as the puppet government in Washington is unlikely to stagger on much longer. Despite the claims by regime media, the world fully grasps the reality of the situation. The American regime is in deep crisis. The American empire is the sick man of the world right now and everyone is just waiting for the inevitable. History shows that the end comes much sooner than the patient ever expects.

The point of all this is that China has no reason to force a confrontation with the American empire over Taiwan. Through bribery, maneuvering and the general incompetence of the American ruling elite, China can quietly dictate policy to the regime in Washington. If she is patient, this reality will become clear to her neighbors in the region, and they will peacefully detach from the American empire and align with the Chinese empire. There is no need to fight the inevitable."

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

- http://thezman.com/wordpress/

○

Related:

 APR 07, 2021 - 4:20 PM: "Taiwan Warns It Will 'Fight To Very Last Day' If China Attacks As US Warship Transits Strait"

"Total US National Debt Visualized: Pre and Post-Covid"

Full screen!

StringDancer,

 "Total US National Debt Visualized: Pre and Post-Covid"

April 2021 now over $28 trillion...

"A Trillion Here, A Trillion There"

"A Trillion Here, A Trillion There"

by Clifford Thies

"The late Everett Dirksen, a long-serving Minority Leader of the Republicans in the U.S. Senate, is famously quoted as saying a billion here, a billion there, and soon we’re talking real money. That was back in 1969. At the time, a billion dollars was about one-tenth of 1 percent of GDP. What about today?

During 2020, the federal government provided a total of $3.2 trillion of Covid relief, starting with a mere $8.3 billion, then adding $104 billion, then adding $2.2 trillion, and finishing off the year with another $900 billion. We’re now three months into 2021, and the federal government has provided yet another $1.9 trillion in Covid relief; and, the Biden administration has just asked for $2 trillion for infrastructure. To put these amounts into perspective: A trillion dollars is today about 4 percent of GDP.

Back in 1969, Ol’ Everett was being funny when he referred to a billion dollars. Back then, a billion dollars was already real money. In 1969, the newest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise, cost $451 million, not even $1 billion. The cost of the Apollo 11 mission to put the first man on the moon wast $335 million, not even $1 billion. Only two companies made more than $1 billion in profits (General Motors $1.7 and Exxon Mobil $1.3). A billion dollars, representing one-tenth of 1 percent of GDP, was a fantastic amount of money. Ol’ Everett’s statement that a billion here and a billion there and soon we’re talking real money was a wild understatement.

And, now, we’ve gone from thinking of spending money at a clip of one-tenth of 1 percent of GDP to thinking of spending money at a clip of 4 percent of GDP, as though 4 percent of GDP isn’t already real money.

Back in 1969, the newest aircraft carrier cost about half of one of Dirksen’s billions. What about today? How does the cost of the newest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, compare to a trillion dollars? The Gerald Ford cost $13 billion. That’s about a hundredth of a trillion dollars.

Back in 1969, the premier space mission of the year cost about a third of one of Dirksen’s billions. The cost of this year’s Mars mission, at $3 billion, is about one three-hundredth of a trillion dollars.

Back in 1969, two companies made more than a billion dollars. Today, no company makes anywhere near a trillion dollars. Apple, the most profitable, makes $60 billion.

I don’t know if Ol’ Everett knew this, but his expression “a billion here, a billion there” was a crazy twist on a yet even older expression, as in the following poem concerning John D. Rockefeller:

"Old Rox, the great philanthropist, gives wealth till people wonder.

And all he gives is never missed, he has such heaps of plunder.

A million here, a million there should buy him bliss eternal

If all the facts are printed fair in each and every journal."

– George Matthew Adams, 1912

The small-minded author of this poem thought to denigrate the generosity of Rockefeller, as though lowering the price of kerosene from 26 to 8 cents a gallon wasn’t already a great benefaction to mankind, on top of which Rockefeller gave away much of the fortune he accumulated by serving his customers so well. But there are big differences between giving away millions of your own money, as compared to adding several billions to the deficit in the 1960s, and adding several trillions to the deficit in 2021.

The first thing is an act of charity. A voluntary increase in the purchasing power of others, at the cost of reducing one’s own purchasing power. The second is either the promotion of the general welfare or redistribution of the wealth. It is legitimately the stuff of politics. The borderline between promoting the general welfare and mere redistribution is often murky. And, the third is simply impossible and will cause rampant inflation.

Among the useful functions of money is that it forces people to make choices. To take stuff out of the economy (as in buying), most people have to put stuff in (as in working). This forces people to evaluate the value of what they want against the value of what they have to give. To a limited extent, saving and borrowing, insurance, charity, and taxation and redistribution relax the balancing of taking and giving at the individual level. But, in the end, the total of what comes out of the economy is limited by the total of what is produced, no matter that you can borrow or print up unlimited amounts of money. Borrowing and printing up trillions and trillions of dollars isn’t real. It’s a special form of deceit we economists call inflation."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

- https://www.aier.org/

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 4/7/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 4/7/21"

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"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will

do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."

- John Maynard Keynes

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"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...

Only the consequences are real - to you!

Your guide:

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/7/21:

"MELTDOWN: The Economic FREE-FALL Worsens"

- https://traderschoice.net/

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"The more I see of the monied classes, 

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

CNN Market Data:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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A comprehensive, essential daily read.

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

April 7th to 9th, Updated Daily 

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Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."

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Daily Job Cuts

- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

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- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

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- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

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- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

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- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

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And now, the End Game...

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Oh yeah...

"All Right Then..."

"What am I in the eyes of most people - a nonentity, an eccentric, or an unpleasant person - somebody who has no position in society and will never have; in short, the lowest of the low. All right, then - even if that were absolutely true, then I should one day like to show by my work what such an eccentric, such a nobody, has in his heart."

"I put my heart and soul into my work, and have lost my mind in the process." 

 "I don't know anything with certainty, but seeing the stars makes me dream."

- Vincent van Gogh