by Michael Snyder
"We knew that this wasn’t over. The ill-fated “Memorandum of Understanding” may have delayed the inevitable, but now the ceasefire is dead and fighting is raging throughout the Middle East all over again. Sadly, we shall soon see just how far both sides are willing to escalate matters. In my opinion, we are going to witness some absolutely shocking escalations in the months ahead. None of the parties involved in this war have any intention of backing down, and I am convinced that some very shocking “surprises” are ahead.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, U.S. forces pounded dozens of important Iranian military targets… US strikes on Iran over the last 48 hours have targeted Iran’s military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway responsible for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Various Iranian air defense systems, drones, regime speed boats, and missile storage sites have been destroyed, according to US Central Command. US officials claim that the strikes are designed to stop Iran from attacking commercial shipping vessels crossing the strait.
U.S. Central Command is telling us that a total of 170 targets were hit. These airstrikes were far more extensive than what we witnessed near the end of last month, and the Iranian response has been much larger as well. In fact, in recent hours the Iranians have launched missiles and drones at bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan…Just as the US nighttime strikes were significantly bigger than prior rounds in June, so has Iran’s ‘retaliation’ been bigger – chiefly on Gulf states and American bases there.
In the overnight and Thursday daytime hours, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have targeted Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and even faraway Jordan. The country is reporting that it has intercepted several missiles, which targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base – jointly operated by US and Jordanian forces. Oil prices have persisted above prewar levels on Thursday.
If Iran was ready to stop shooting, it appears that the U.S. was willing to stop shooting as well…
Unfortunately, the Iranians didn’t stop shooting. Instead, they seem quite eager to fight. In fact, on Thursday the Iranians have just kept on striking more targets…Iran has launched fresh strikes on US targets today, following a second night of strikes between the two countries last night. The fragile ceasefire between the two countries was ruptured earlier this week when the US accused Iran of targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Apparently the “ports of some Arab countries” are being targeted in this latest round of attacks…
I really wish that the Iranians would show some restraint. But that isn’t likely to happen at this stage. Meanwhile, there have been rumors of more U.S. airstrikes in Iran…
The U.S. is denying that it conducted those strikes. So if it wasn’t the U.S., who was it? There are reports that Kuwait and Bahrain actually decided to conduct “a joint strike operation”…
This would be a major development if it is true. If other Gulf nations have decided that now is the time to directly fight Iran, that could greatly expand the scope of the conflict. It is being reported that the renewed fighting has interrupted the final stage of the funeral procession for Ayatollah Khamenei…The chaos from the latest US-Iran strikes has delayed the final stage of the funeral procession for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to the New York Times. Hundreds of thousands of mourners in recent days have taken to the streets of Tehran to mourn the death of the country’s notorious dictator.
Khamenei was set to be buried in his hometown, the holy city of Mashhad, on Thursday, but the burial was delayed as strikes rang out nearby. This multi-day funeral procession has whipped the Iranians into a frenzy, and it would be difficult to overstate how angry they are at this moment.
I don’t think that there is any turning back now. President Trump has been trying to do everything that he can think of to resolve the crisis in the Middle East, but so far nothing has worked… President Trump has used every tactic in the book to wind down his war with Iran. Threats (he threatened the end of their civilization). Cajoling (he offered them hundreds of billions of dollars). Loosely worded interim deals (there have been at least two, the April ceasefire and then the June memorandum of understanding).
But none of it has worked. Iran has continued attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This week, Trump took away Iran’s ability to sell oil. He’s bombing dozens of sites in the country. Iran is launching attacks at Bahrain and Kuwait, where there are U.S. bases. The stock market is falling. And oil prices are spiking.
Is it a full-blown war again? Hard to tell. But it’s sliding toward ugly. So where do we go from here? Trump was supposed to get an important intelligence briefing at 1 PM eastern time…
It appears that the U.S. is willing to fight to break Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, now the Iranians have some key decisions to make…
So, the immediate choice to go up or down the escalation ladder lies with Iran. If Tehran deescalates, they cede control of Hormuz. If they escalate, their options are to hit Hormuz more – triggering more US counter strikes; or GCC energy – triggering a larger war; to use (battered) proxies like Hezbollah – triggering wider war; or perhaps to rush for a nuclear weapon – which would mean far worse war. The New York Times reports Iran’s president and foreign minister were physically attacked this week by supporters of a hard-line faction that vehemently opposes any deal with the US: it remains to be seen if the streets, IRGC, clerics, or politicians will decide what happens next – but both the politicians and the IRGC benefit from talks going on and oil flowing.
The US would also have to decide if it can afford to cede Hormuz or will fight to keep it open when the SPR is seen near a tank bottom– was this discussed at the NATO summit, perhaps? I don’t think that there is any way that the Iranians will back down. So there will be a lot more fighting, and Israel is apparently ready to join in if needed…
Israel is willing to join future US attacks on Iran should Washington seek help after President Trump declared the cease-fire with Tehran “over,” sources in Jerusalem told The Post. We’ve proved that we stand with the US,” one source said. “I’m not sure it will be the interest of them - of the US that Israel will join on this - but, you know, we realize that we need to stretch our muscles.” “We’re willing to do it again, if needed,” the person added.
I have no doubt that this is true. In fact, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz just confirmed that the IDF is ready to hit Iran “with even greater force” this time around… Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday said his country was prepared to resume its military campaign against Iran if needed, vowing to do so “with even greater force.”
The latest remarks came as new fighting erupted between the United States and Iran, raising fears of a return to full-scale war after an April ceasefire and a U.S.-Iran agreement in June to end hostilities. “The army is ready and on alert for a resumption of fighting, in order to regain air superiority and strike again … in Iran, to eliminate threats, including a third time if necessary,” Katz said at a military ceremony. “If we have to go back, we will go back, with even greater force,” he added. Israel is not going to be on the sidelines for long.
What all of this means is that the Strait of Hormuz is going to be closed for the foreseeable future. The Iranians have not officially shut it completely down yet, but even now barely any commercial vessels are getting through… Barely any oil tankers have been passing through the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran renewed their fighting in earnest earlier this week.
This morning, July 9, only two tankers had made it through, according to Reuters. One of them loaded in Iran and is subject to US sanctions. The other carries a flag for the Marshall Islands. On July 8, at least four oil and gas tankers turned around instead of risking being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
The next chapter of the global energy crisis has begun, and it is going to be even more intense than the last chapter. And the fighting in the Middle East will ultimately escalate to a level that will shock the entire planet. We have been waiting for Iran War 3, and now it is here. Even as I wrap up this article, missiles and drones are flying all over the Middle East. We are falling through the air with no parachute, and this story is going to have an absolutely crazy ending."
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