"If You Thought Pre-war Iran Was A Threat,
You Haven’t Seen Anything Yet"
by Leo Hohmann
"While Americans were busy celebrating their nation’s 250th anniversary on July 4th, something important was happening 6,000 miles away that went largely unnoticed and lightly reported in the U.S. media. It’s something every American should be aware of. An estimated 10 to 15 million Iranians turned out over the weekend to mourn at the funeral for the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a revered figure throughout Shia Islam who was killed along with his wife, granddaughter and other family members by a U.S./Israeli missile on Feb. 28.
Here’s one video showing Tehran over the weekend:
Full screen recommended.
Here’s another:
Full screen recommended.
Iranians are in no mood to be gracious or polite, says Dr. Robert Pape, an expert on mass psychology in the geo-political realm, especially as it relates to war. They want revenge. Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, military airpower, and political violence, says the Ayatollah’s funeral has shifted the balance of political will in Iran’s favor, four-and-a-half months into the war.
In a podcast interview with At the Water’s Edge, Pape breaks down why wars cannot be won with air power alone and explains how this strategy can actually backfire and stir up anger in a society, while at the same time unifying its will to carry out revenge.
Even President Trump acted surprised by the turnout for the Ayatollah’s funeral. Trump expressing that he expected the late leader to be widely unpopular. Trump remarked, “I was shocked. I thought people hated him,” after witnessing the emotional response from mourners. This shows how detached from reality Trump is due to his propensity to listen to all the wrong people in the realm of foreign policy.
While you will find plenty of Americans who look at the above videos and say it’s all propaganda and Iranians were either coerced or paid to come out and publicly appear mournful, I find that to be a hard sell. As Pape points out, the crowds were so large that they could have steered their anger at the regime. There’s no way 100,000 IRGC troops, if they even had that many nearby, could have killed 10 million people if they decided to unleash their fury against the Iranian government. The crowds of people in Tehran made China’s 1989 Tiananmen Square protests look paltry by comparison.
What the U.S. did was use military air power to inflict misery on the Iranian population. In such a scenario, even those Iranians who hated their government began to hate the U.S. and Israel even more. This is common sense among those who study mass psychology and how it is influenced by war-time scenarios. Apparently, no one with any access to this knowledge was allowed to speak with President Trump before he decided to launch his war on Iran.
“Punishment doesn’t work,” Pape said, explaining what’s really happening inside Trump’s inner circle, and why he thinks Iran is trying to wreck the Trump presidency rather than cut a peace deal with Washington. In essence, Trump has kicked a hornet’s nest and opened Pandora’s box. And the ramifications going forward will play out for years to come in ways Americans will not be able to imagine right now.
In the video interview below, Professor Pape delves into what the funeral turnout really signals about Iranian public opinion. He says Iranian society has been traumatized, similar to the way the U.S. was traumatized after the 9/11 attacks, only times that by a factor of at least four. This is a must-watch interview for those wanting to grasp the full consequences of Washington’s foolhardy move of attacking Iran, a move that I believe will ultimately prove to be detrimental to both the United States and Israel.
Professor Pape discusses how a traumatized nation is likely to respond going forward. One thing to watch for is how Iran, having survived the initial traumatic scenario, is now collectively emboldened to seek retribution, not just militarily but economically.
Full screen recommended.
Pape’s believes the will of the Iranian people just shifted. He explains why Iran is rejecting the financial sweeteners offered by Trump’s New York real estate investors posing as diplomats, that being Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Pape believes airpower and blockades rarely break a nation’s will, and explains why he expects Trump to face pressure to escalate the war as soon as August. You can also read Pape’s latest Substack article, “The Escalation Trap.”
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