 "Far From the Madding Crowd" by Joel Bowman |
Buenos Aires, Argentina - “Looks like you got back just in the nick of time!” remarked one friend, welcoming us home. “South is the only way to fly these days!” chimed another, with one wary eye on our northern neighbors. “Energy… food… water… and a long overdue measure of political sanity!” added a third, extolling a few of the virtues of our chosen home down here at the End of the World.
We’re back on Terra Argentea, dear reader, after a couple of months roaming the northern hemisphere… from Japan to the USA to Panama and back down the end of the Americas once more. It is from this distant southern clime we read this morning’s headlines… and the worsening situation whence we just escaped.
The latest, from AFP: "US, Iran Trade Threats To Target Infrastructure In Middle East. Iran threatened on Sunday to “irreversibly destroy” key infrastructure across the Middle East if US President Donald Trump follows through on his vow to “obliterate” the Islamic republic’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz swiftly reopens."
The tit-for-tat threats came as the war entered its fourth week and continued to reverberate across the Middle East, with alarm mounting over strikes around nuclear sites. Trump, under pressure over rising fuel prices, raised the stakes by announcing a countdown over Tehran’s de facto blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Writing on Truth Social, Trump said the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants “starting with the biggest one first” if Tehran did not fully reopen the strait within 48 hours, or 23:44 GMT on Monday according to the time of his post.
Hmm… is this what is meant by “unintended consequences…” “higher-order events…” “unforeseen externalities…”? Call it what you will, dear reader… but when the words “obliteration,” “irreversible destruction” and “oil blockade” start popping up in headlines about the world’s key oil chokepoint, it’s generally not a positive sign for peace and prosperity...
Indeed, in the “fog of war,” cascading knock-on effects have a way of spiraling out of control. One day, Israel is striking Iran’s South Pars “super giant” gas field… the next Iran is bombing Qatar’s Ras Laffan (the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility)… and before you know it, you’ve got an old-fashioned energy crunch on your hands!
And even if one could make a wish and imagine peace in the Middle East overnight, a scenario that looks less and less likely by the day, it’s not as though one simple flicks a switch and turns supply on again. Indeed, triple digit oil prices may be far stickier than expected. Wrote Goldman Sachs in a note to investors on Thursday: “The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses.”
What does a world economy without access to cheap, reliable and abundant energy look like? Are we likely to see a global recession this year? (As of a couple of days ago, Moody’s had the odds at 49%.) Or worse? A depression? There will be lots to unpack and sort through over the coming weeks and months… and we’re happy to be doing so down here, far from the madding crowd."
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