"Donald Trump’s War on Iran is Turning into a Debacle"
by Larry C. Johnson
"The image above tells you why Donald Trump is in political trouble over his decision to launch a war on Iran. Previous presidents have understood that you must rally public support before sending US troops and planes overseas to attack another country, or else you risk political isolation and blame if the war goes awry. And the war with Iran is going badly for the US, despite the nightly cheer-leading broadcast round-the-clock on Fox News.
The Trump administration genuinely believed that the decapitation attack on 28 February would rally the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the Islamic Republic. Trump ignored the contrary warnings from General Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Trump apparently never considered the possibility that Iran would blockade the the Strait of Hormuz and shutdown the flow of oil, liquid natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer from the Persian Gulf. As I discussed in my last article - Choke Point: The Global Economic Consequences of The Persian Gulf Shutdown - Iran’s shuttering of the Persian Gulf has sent in motion some profound economic shocks that are going to cause a global recession and, if sustained for more than a month, a global depression.
Although the US is supposedly not dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf, gas prices are rising dramatically across the 50 states. When I filled my tank on Sunday, the price of gas had surged by .50 cents from what I paid six days earlier. I checked again today (Wednesday) and the price had moved up an additional .15 cents. The increase cost of fuel is going to hit the entire economy as truckers and airlines and farmers have to spend more to keep their machines running. Those costs will be passed on to the consumers. This is going to create a double whammy - not just in the US, but around the world - of rising prices and diminished economic growth. At some point, the price of oil and LNG will start to tick down but only because the recession that is going to hit most economies around the globe will reduce demand.
The picture is equally bleak and troubled on the military front. Despite wreaking massive damage inside Iran, the US and Israeli militaries have failed to knockout Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile forces as well as its drones. The US Department of War has conceded that Iran defied the expectations of the US military as the Iranians launched devastating counter attacks.
The New York Times published an interactive feature on March 11, 2026 that analyzes damage to US military and related sites in the Middle East amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. It uses high-resolution commercial satellite imagery (from sources like Airbus DS and Planet Labs), verified social media videos, and official statements from US officials and Iranian state media to document at least 17 damaged US sites (including bases hosting US forces, air defense infrastructure, and diplomatic facilities). The analysis is current as of March 10, 2026, and highlights Iran’s retaliatory strikes - thousands of missiles and drones - launched in response to the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran that began around late February 2026.
Iran’s attacks began shortly after the conflict’s start (e.g., February 28 onward) and targeted 13 sites in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, and Iraq:
Kuwait: Multiple strikes on Ali Al Salem Air Base (March 1), Camp Arifjan (March 4), Shuaiba port (March 2, killing six U.S. service members with partial roof collapse visible in satellite images), and Camp Buehring (March 5, drone explosion near sports facilities with no casualties).
Bahrain: U.S. Navy 5th Fleet HQ struck (February 28/March 1), including damage to a communications radome shown in verified video.
Saudi Arabia: Prince Sultan Air Base (March 1), with one U.S. service member killed.
Qatar: Al Udeid Air Base (March 9) and Umm Dahal radar site (damage to AN/FPS-132 radar).
UAE: Al Dhafra Air Base (March 3), Jebel Ali port (March 1), Al Ruwais (near THAAD unit), and Al Sader facilities.
Jordan: Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (March 4), with severe damage to air defense sensors.
Iraq: Erbil Airport (March 1).
Other: Strikes reached as far as Turkey (NATO intercepted missiles aimed at Incirlik Air Base on March 4, which Iran denied). Some bases (e.g., Al Udeid, Ali Al Salem, Al Dhafra) were hit multiple times. Diplomatic targets included the U.S. consulate in Dubai and embassies in Kuwait City, Riyadh, and Baghdad (rocket attack on March 8, no casualties confirmed).
While US CENTCOM continues to insist that Iran has done little damage, the reality is that Iran has crippled the ability of the US to launch and sustain combat operations from the bases and installations listed above.
There are several reports that Trump has tried to re-open talks with Iran in hopes of securing a cease-fire or a staged victory withdrawal. Iran is having none of that and will continue to attack US installations and Israel no matter what Trump decides to do."
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Danny Davis and I discussed the state of the war with Iran:
Full screen recommended.
"Iran War: Trump's Lost Control
With fmr CIA Analyst Larry Johnson"
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