"Artificial Information"
Fake brains, crazy numbers and wishful thinking...
by Bill Bonner
Youghal, Ireland - "Have you watched Taylor Swift en flagrante, naked as a jaybird, performing lewd sex acts? We haven’t either. But it’s all over the internet, in AI-enhanced, fake porn.
Investors are so excited – about the financial possibilities, of course – they believe Nvidia (makers of AI chips) is worth 33 times SALES. To put that in perspective, you have to stand way back…a quarter of a century back. There were 28 ‘dot.com’ businesses selling for more than 10 times sales back then. Today, there are 38.
Such prices show a level of faith in the future that is not only extraordinary, but insane. Death will have no dominion. No one will ever stub his toe. And beer will not go flat. At 33 times sales, in order to earn back the purchase price, you’d have to pay out 100% of SALES until 2057.
But it imagines that revenues come without cos…as if the company paid no wages, no overhead, no taxes, no parking fees, no travel, no business lunches or memberships, no advertising, heating, air conditioning, charitable contributions, legal fees, R&D, bonuses, consulting contracts or any other expense of any other kind. And not just one year…but for 33 years!
Crazy Numbers: It also assumes that there will be no competitors to steal Nvidia’s customers and arbitrage away its profits…nor will there be any tech advances that turn Nvidia’s promising new tech into yesterday’s discarded old tech. In short, it assumes a world unlike our own.
This point was made by Scott McNealy when his firm, Sun Microsystems, was trading over 10 times sales back in the Dot.com days: "Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?That’s right, you don’t need a financial analyst, accountant, or a Wall Street psychic. The numbers speak for themselves. And they say: ‘this is crazy.’"
This week, we looked at why the Information Revolution has been such a flop. In summary, any information above and beyond what you really need when you really need it, is a liability, not an asset. It must be assayed, sorted and stored – at the expense of your time and money. The internet consumed an enormous amount of time and gave back little – other than distraction, entertainment, and misinformation – in return.
So, along comes AI. Its promise is that it will tell you what’s true or false, real or fake…naughty or nice. That’s why Nvidia stock is so expensive. People think AI will free us from the tyranny of the Information Age. Ask anything…and it shall be delivered unto you.
The Fake Brain: We asked AI-powered ChatGPT what it considered the great promise of AI. Readers may want to skip over this, but here’s the answer from AI’s fake brain:
• "AI is considered important for several reasons, and its potential impact on the human race is significant. Here are some key reasons why AI is considered crucial and how it can benefit humanity:
• Automation and Efficiency: AI has the ability to automate repetitive tasks, allowing humans to focus on more creative, strategic, and complex activities. This can lead to increased efficiency in various industries, reducing errors and improving overall productivity.
• Problem Solving: AI systems can analyze large datasets and complex patterns to identify solutions and make predictions. This can be valuable in fields such as healthcare, finance, and research, where AI can help discover insights that may be challenging for humans to uncover.
• Innovation: AI technologies have the potential to drive innovation across various sectors. From self-driving cars to personalized medicine, AI can contribute to the development of new technologies and solutions that enhance our daily lives.
• Assistance in Decision Making: AI can provide valuable insights and data analysis to support decision-making processes. This is particularly beneficial in areas like business, healthcare, and finance, where informed decisions are crucial.
• Accessibility and Inclusivity: AI has the potential to create more inclusive solutions by addressing challenges and providing assistance to people with disabilities. For example, AI-powered technologies can help individuals with visual impairments navigate their surroundings or access information.
• Scientific Advancements: AI can accelerate scientific research by processing vast amounts of data, simulating experiments, and identifying potential areas for exploration. This can lead to breakthroughs in fields such as medicine, climate science, and materials science.
• Addressing Global Challenges: AI can be applied to tackle some of the most pressing global challenges, including climate change, poverty, and healthcare. It can help optimize resource allocation, improve disaster response, and contribute to sustainable development.
• Personalization and User Experience: AI can enhance user experiences by personalizing content and services based on individual preferences and behaviors. This is evident in recommendation systems, virtual assistants, and personalized learning platforms.
However, it's essential to approach the development and deployment of AI responsibly, considering ethical implications, privacy concerns, and potential biases. Striking a balance between harnessing the benefits of AI and addressing associated challenges is crucial for ensuring its positive impact on the human race."
Sounds like blah, blah to us.
A.I. BS: AI is a tool. It will be useful to some. Some will use it to save time (thereby increasing productivity.) Some will use it to waste time and talent. On balance, it will probably do more harm than good, but who knows?
Here’s Laurie Segall on CNN, gushing about the risks: "We are in an era where it’s not just our data that’s up for grabs, it’s our most intimate qualities: Our voices, our faces, our bodies can all now be mimicked by AI. Put simply: Our humanity is a click away from being used against us."
And if it can happen to Swift, it can happen to you. We rate the odds that it can happen to us as pretty low. But we don’t want to find out otherwise. We might have some ‘splaining’ to do.
But don’t worry. Congress is on the case. And here – like supporting unnecessary wars and spending non-existent money – is where Republicans and Democrats come together. At this week’s hearing in Washington, Josh Hawley, Laphonza Butler, Marsha Blackburn, Amy Klobuchar and Lindsey Graham all got to grandstand…letting the voters know that their hearts and minds, if they had any, were in the right place. Yes, they may support wholesale massacres in other parts of the world, but here at home they don’t want anyone harmed by social media. It sounded like the kind of BS you’d get from AI.
But if any group of people could make social media, and AI, even less appealing than it already is – they’re the ones to do it. “You don’t care about people; you care about profits,” said Ms. Blackburn to Mark Zuckerberg, providing insight. “Does your user agreement still suck,” asked Mr. Kennedy, providing humor.
“I’m so tired of this,” said Ms. Klobuchar. “It’s been 28 years … since the start of the internet. We haven’t passed any of these bills [to ignore the First Amendment in order to regulate and control social media]…, because everyone’s ‘double talk, double talk.’ It’s time to actually pass them.”
So it went. And wait for it. AI-powered mischief makers will soon have a deepfake image of Senator Graham saying something truly, appallingly stupid. And how will we know the difference?"
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