Dan, I Allegedly 2/2/24
"Is The Next Black Swan Here?"
"The man that called the 2008 global housing debacle has come out to tell us that the next black Swan is here. It is the massive debt that’s about to explode. This looks ominous."
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"The US Has A $6 Trillion Problem
Over The Next Twelve Months"
by James Hickman
Excerpt: "Yesterday the Treasury Department announced that they expected to increase the national debt by a whopping $760 billion this quarter alone… and another $202 billion next quarter. In short that means almost $1 trillion added to the national debt just in the first half of this year. And, again, these are the Treasury Department’s own estimates. Obviously, that’s a pretty horrible result; even a senior Treasury official acknowledged that they have “significantly increased” their bond sales and the national debt. Not that they’re doing anything to stop the trend.
But there’s an even greater risk that the Treasury Department faces this year that is hardly being discussed anywhere. Over the next twelve months, more than $6 trillion in existing US government debt is set to mature… and will need to be paid back somehow.
So, to give you an example, back in 2014, the federal government issued $264 billion in 10-year Treasury notes. Well, it’s now 2024, i.e. ten years later. Meaning that $264 billion worth of 10-year notes issued in 2014 will become due and payable this year.
In 2017, they issued $368.8 billion worth of 7-year notes. And those 7-year notes issued in 2017 are due and payable this year.
You get the idea. The point is that the total sum of Treasury Bonds, Notes, and Bills outstanding that will become due and payable this year exceeds $6 trillion. So, in ADDITION to the $1 trillion in NEW debt that they’re forecasting just in the first six months of 2024, the Treasury Department is also going to have to pay back $6 trillion of existing debt.
Naturally the Treasury Department doesn’t have $6 trillion lying around to pay back its bondholders. So instead of paying anyone back, they just borrow new money to repay the old money. Now, this doesn’t actually increase the national debt. If they borrow $6 trillion in new bonds, but then pay back $6 trillion in old bonds, the net change to the debt is ZERO. So, what’s the problem?"
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