Monday, October 23, 2023

Jim Kunstler, "Halloween Parable"

The Dead Rise on John Street
"Halloween Parable"
by Jim Kunstler

"You might have noticed that the massive investment in Halloween yard shrines by families growing broke in America reflects the ghoulish convergence of malevolent events undermining and overtaking what used to be normal life in this land. Nothing is normal anymore. The groaning mummies, howling werewolves, and shrieking skeletons are trying to tell us something.

The message might be: detach from reality long enough and death comes creeping ’round your door. You see where consensual madness has gotten us? Believe enough things that are not true and nemesis comes roaring in, all fangs and claws, to gleefully shred you. So. Maybe it’s time to stop believing things that are not true.

Start with the first principle of US life in our time: that anything goes and nothing matters. This proposition has ruled for as long as most of us can remember. Consequence was exiled on Main Street so you can get away with anything now - until you discover that, somehow, everything is broken. Your livelihood is broken. Your community is broken. Your household is broken. Your car is broken. Your children are broken. Your health is broken. Your faith is broken. Your country is broken.

Here’s a first principle worth considering: court death and it will oblige you. Granted, there is a certain libido for nonexistence in the human psyche because life is so hard sometimes that you yearn to be relieved of it. But not everyone in America seeks to walk that way. Probably fewer than half of us. So why do we allow that other half to drag us to the bone orchard? Do you see what it means to get your mind right when times get hard and the path is uncertain?

Everybody knows that a ghoul was installed in the now-haunted White House. And everybody knows that the method of his installation was a fraud, a gigantic falsehood. The catch is that the fewer than half of us liked it that way, they celebrated it, did a victory dance, and then rubbed it in with prosecutions against the rest of us who saw exactly what happened and didn’t like it. They acted like it didn’t matter what you saw.

They tried to control the transmission of ideas and sentiment about these matters by placing half the CIA and the FBI on Facebook, Twitter, and Google. Nice try, but only cads and fools think that you can stuff reality in a black box, lock it up, and throw away the key. Reality has Houdini-like powers to escape because reality is true magic. Reality is the ultimate super-power. Reality is not some asshole in a spandex suit with a cape and a mask. Reality is the white light that reveals the world.

Reality is telling us that the war project in Ukraine started by the neocon pseudopod of our Deep State blob is not working out. The fiasco could not be more rank. Instead of weakening Russia, it crippled the USA. V. Putin is not the enemy of Western Civ, he’s one of its last remaining defenders. Was it not in everyone’s interest that for seventy-five years Ukraine existed as an inert borderland, making trouble for nobody, itself especially? Could we not respect that reality and leave it alone?

Reality is telling us that Israel refuses to be massacred out of existence. Israel will defend itself with us or without us. It’s possible they’ll manage it intelligently. You might ask: will we defend ourselves against the same antagonist that wants to wipe all of Western Civ off the face of the earth, us included? Notice that your own will to survive is being subverted by useful idiots while warrior cadres of mysterious origin pour across the Mexican border. Everyone knows it’s a clear and present danger and who will move to stop the invasion? Do we have to wait for a catastrophe?

Who is “Joe Biden” working for? Wouldn’t you like to know? Not much is left of him in mind or body, though he made a fortune in a short span of years for doing effectively nothing but retailing his favor before landing so uncannily in the seat of power. The truth about it is all over the place now and might provoke constitutional procedures that will induce the de-platforming he likely deserves. All that is going to unspool now whether The New York Times pays attention to it or not, and no matter what the fewer than half of us want to pretend about the evil legerdemain that put him where he is.

The extended festival of ghouls and dancing skeletons comes to an end in a week with the Day of the Dead, also known as All Saints Day. That is your cue to stop celebrating wickedness for its own sake. Remember, we are the living. While we are here, we have an obligation to those who come after us. The dead can take care of themselves. It is possible to have faith in ourselves. Even as the days grow shorter, the people of this land can gather in the remaining light instead of worshipping the darkness. A new season will be upon us soon. Hark, the herald angels sing!"

"Mt. Debtmore"

"Mt. Debtmore"
On the road to inflation, bankruptcy and military humiliation...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Youghal, Ireland - "Argentines went to the polls on Sunday. At stake was an historic question: can a democratic government ever voluntarily, peacefully reduce its own power…can the ‘political caste’ ever be brought to heel? Laws and regulations are added; seldom are they taken away. Reagan said he was ‘against Big Government.’ Trump’s ‘drain the swamp’ pledge at least suggested he might put in a drainpipe. Neither followed through. And as far as we know, it has never happened. Individual liberty has never increased in a democracy. But that’s what Javier Milei, candidate for the presidency, is promising to do. And fans say he is crazy enough to actually do it.

But Milei suffered a setback yesterday. The LA Times: "Economy Minister Sergio Massa took the lead Sunday in Argentina’s presidential election against right-wing populist Javier Milei who has pledged to drastically overhaul the state. But a runoff next month appeared probable. With 86% of the votes counted, Massa had 36.2%, and Milei 30.3%." Our correspondent, on the scene, has more below.

Mt. Debtmore: Meanwhile, the rich men north of Richmond grow richer and more powerful by the day. And deeper in debt. Distracted by two emergencies…one in the Ukraine, the other in Israel…you can’t expect them to have much time left over to consider their own situation. Debt is piling up at a terrific rate. It was only a few weeks ago that US federal debt passed the $33 trillion mark. Now it has sped past $33.5 trillion…$40 trillion can’t be too far off. Markets Insider:

"The US debt mountain is growing so fast the government could soon be spending more on interest payments than on defense The idea that interest payments could soon surpass defense spending could be a source of concern for policymakers, with President Joe Biden pledging Monday to ask Congress for over $100 billion worth of funding to support both Israel and Ukraine. Debt has emerged as a major concern for Wall Street this year, with lawmakers reaching an 11th-hour deal to raise the government borrowing limit back in May and Treasury bonds currently suffering a rout that ranks amongst the worst sell-offs in market history." Interest payments exceeding ‘defense’ spending?

Adapt or Die: Here, we would like to introduce an idea. Wars are won with firepower, not slogans and propaganda. But technology moves fast. AI and drones, for example, require new tactics and new military hardware. A smaller, younger military can adapt more quickly. Even at brute force applications, overspending on firepower can be a mistake. Firepower costs money; debt builds up. The more you spend, the less money you have left for innovation and growth. Then, you end up paying so much for past firepower (debt service…retired generals…veterans’ benefits…legacy hardware maintenance) that you have less current firepower available to throw at an enemy.

No time to worry about that now! We have a huge industry that sells firepower – not just to the US, but to foreign governments too. The weapons suppliers have so many members of Congress in their pockets, they barely have room for their car keys.

How can you ‘tighten’ a family budget when the house is full of freeloaders? And for all the talk of ‘tightening’ at the Fed, it is worth noting that monetary policy has never actually gotten very restrictive. The key, after inflation interest rate on 10-year US bonds is only 1% – the difference between 10-year yield and the CPI. That is loose, not tight. Traditionally a borrower could expect a real return on his money of 2%-4%.

Banana Republicanism: Meanwhile, the Fed is supposed to be reducing the money supply by letting its holdings of bonds expire. So far, this has taken the Fed’s balance sheet from $8.9 trillion down to $7.9 trillion. Not very impressive, and not when you consider that it was under $1 trillion just 15 years ago. Also, worth noting, the feds have switched the engine of inflation from monetary policy to fiscal policy. Interest rates have gone up…but deficits have gone up too. Since 2020, they’ve grown among the banana leaves.

This year, for example, is a year with a great economy – both Janet Yellen and Joe Biden so say. And yet, the Biden Team is asking for another $100 billion for Israel and the Ukraine. Already, the feds are running a deficit that will reach up to $2 trillion this year. That’s 4% of GDP – in year of full employment and positive GDP growth…a sh*thole country level…not a level for a responsible, mature, honest nation. The European Union, for example, specifically forbade deficits of more than 3% of GDP.

Deficits need to be financed. Currently, investors are willing to provide the money. They’re not used to getting 5% – guaranteed – on their savings. Even we are taking advantage of these short-term interest rates while we wait for the ‘other shoe’ to drop. Then, inflation rates will go back up…and investors will want an even higher rate of interest, forcing the feds to ‘print’ more money. And so… we march along…towards the classic denouement for a great empire – inflation, bankruptcy and military humiliation. Stay tuned."

Joel’s Note: “Mas Massa, por favor!” So declared the will of the people in yesterday’s general election, here in the downside-up world of Argentina. Yes, dear reader, democracy is living down to its reputation at the world’s end, proving once again that individual ignorance cannot be multiplied into collective wisdom.

The results, as noted above, saw the left-wing candidate, Sergio Massa (36%), take the lead over the libertarian candidate, Javier Milei (30%). Conservative candidate, Patricia Bullrich, came in third (23%). But as none gained the 45% necessary for an outright victory (or won by a clear, 10 point margin), the country will again head to the polls next month, with a runoff between the two top contenders.

For those readers just joining us, Sergio Massa is the current minister of the economy. You might expect, given yesterday’s result, that he must be doing a half decent job managing the nation’s finances. You would be wrong. Officially, inflation down here on the Pampas is running at an eye-watering 138% annually. That’s about 12-14%...per month. J.P. Morgan reckons it’ll hit 200% by year’s end. And Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, thinks it’s already 221%, which would make it the third highest rate in the world.

With numbers this large, it’s hard to tell exactly what the rate is. But any way you measure it... except, apparently, at the voting booth... it’s a disaster. “Dollarization is the only cure for the economic destruction caused by Peronist policies,” says Professor Hanke, who helped design and implement dollarization policies in both Montenegro (1999) and Ecuador (2001).

Professor Hanke has worked closely with Emilio Ocampo, Javier Milei’s dollarization guru, to lay out a plan for how this might be achieved in Argentina. Only, Milei will have to actually win the election in order to implement such a plan. Srs. Massa and Milei have less than a month to persuade Bullrich’s voters to come over to their side. The election will be held on November 19. To Singapore or Venezuela? We shall see..."

"The US Economy Is Staring At A Complete Economic Meltdown"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 10/23/23
"The US Economy Is Staring 
At A Complete Economic Meltdown"
"Economic experts around the world are sounding the alarms, warning that a recession is looming on the horizon in 2023. The Global Economy has faced unprecedented challenges in recent years,and the signals pointing towards an upcoming economic downturn have grown increasingly concerning. Geopolitical tensions, energy market imbalances, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates are the key factors at play. It has been reported that economists are divided on what are the odds of the United States facing a recession in the next 12 months. 48 Percent of economists believe that a depression is likely, and 70 percent of consumers believe that it is inevitable. This will have drastic effects on the broader economy and affect every American household."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Strike, 10/22/23
"US Banks Just FIRED 20,000 Employees - Banks Collapse"
"In recent news, it has come to light that the five largest banks in America have quietly fired a staggering 20,000 employees. This downsizing trend within the big banks has been happening discreetly, with the possibility of further layoffs looming on the horizon. If we examine the actions of these five banks, we will find that they have collectively cut approximately 20,000 jobs this year alone. Among these banks, Wells Fargo takes the lead as the main perpetrator, having cut around 11,000 jobs, amounting to about 5% of their workforce, in the current year.

What is particularly surprising is that these layoffs went unnoticed by the public and were barely covered by the media. Most people were expecting a smooth transition, unaware of the impending job cuts. Despite this, it is essential to maintain belief in the potential for a soft dish landing. The banks' primary objective remains to achieve a soft landing, and I have not stated otherwise.

The obvious question arises: why would five of the largest banks in America quietly lay off 20,000 employees? The answer lies in their preparations for an upcoming impact. These banks, well-aware of what lies ahead, anticipate a storm that could surpass the magnitude of the previous financial crisis. This perspective is not merely an opinion, but rather a careful examination of the data, facts, consumer behavior, the state of the economy, and the global context. The present times differ significantly from what was experienced in 2008. In this video, I will delve into the specifics to shed light on the current situation."
Comments here:
o
"Unprecedented US Fiscal Doom Loop Getting Worse"
By Quoth The Raven

Excerpt: "US Fiscal Doom Loop Getting Worse: In our view, the biggest elephant in the room is the US Fiscal Doom Loop. To refresh: US Government spending is out of control, and there appears to be very little political will to stop it. As the chart below shows, Government spending is up 14% yoy and tax receipts are down 7% yoy.  Fiscal year ended September 2023 is projected to have a deficit of over $2 Billion (or roughly 8% of GDP). In the past, deficits of this magnitude only materialized during significant downturns like the bursting of the Dotcom Bubble, the 2008 GFC and the COVID crisis. It is unprecedented to have deficits of this magnitude with the economy and employment being relatively strong."
Full article is here:

Adventures With Danno, "Outrageous Price Increases At Big Lots!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 10/23/23
"Outrageous Price Increases At Big Lots! 
Multiple Food Items Are Too Expensive!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Big Lots and noticing very high price increases on multiple food items. It's getting harder and harder to find good deals on food as prices seem to have reached ridiculous levels all around the world!"
Comments here:

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/23/23"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/23/23"
o
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
o

Canadian Prepper, "Emergency Update: US Government Warning"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/22/23
"Emergency Update: US Government Warning;
 Israel Nuclear Submarines; Iran Primes Ballistic Missiles"
"Lloyd Austin just gave everyone a major warning. War with Iran is coming."

Sunday, October 22, 2023

"WW3 Middle East Update 10/22/23"

Full screen recommended.
DCM Global, 10/22/23
"Erdogan Strikes Deal with HAMAS Leader! 
Turkish Army Prepares to Enter Gaza! Israel's Harsh Response"
"Erdogan's meeting with Hamas leader shocked the world! Turkey, which reached an agreement with the Hamas leader on Gaza, has chosen its side in the Israeli war. The US and Israeli presidents reacted harshly. Tensions are rising in Gaza. HAMAS called on Muslim countries to unite for jihad. Turkey gave Israel 24 hours to stop the attacks. It was stated that the necessary action will be taken at the end of the time. It was announced that HAMAS leader was contacted for the health and food needs of the citizens in Gaza. Tensions are rising between Turkey and Israel. The Turkish navy continues to show its power to the world by conducting war drills in the Mediterranean. Erdogan has declared a Navtex and demanded the withdrawal of the US aircraft carrier Gerald! The US showed its strength and never withdrew! After Russia's Ballistic Missile threat, the whole world is discussing the possibility of World War 3 starting. Israel's strike on EGYPT military base has alarmed the Middle East countries! 1,500 soldiers in the Israeli Army resign, but Netenyahu continues operations!"
Comments here:
Turkey... 525,000 active military with 1.5 million reserves, who Scott Ritter calls, "ferocious fighters." An excellent Navy and air force, thousands of modern tanks and artillery pieces, and thousands of missiles including those needed to sweep the Israeli air force from the sky. Israel is advised to consider it's options wisely...
o
Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 10/22/23
"'Out Of Control': Iran Returns Fire After Israel 
Threatens Attack, Watch Tehran's Gaza Warning"
"Iran has warned Israel of things getting “out of control” if Tel Aviv doesn’t stop pounding Gaza ahead of an expected ground offensive. “I would like to warn the United States and the Israeli regime that if they do not immediately stop the crime against humanity and genocide in Gaza, anything is possible at any moment and the region will go out of control,” Iranian Foreign Minister said during a joint statement with his South African counterpart."
Comments here:
o
Should a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah erupt remember that Hezbollah has 100,000 very well trained and armed professional soldiers, and 150,000 missiles capable of striking all of Israel.

Jeremiah Babe, "Society Will Only Get Worse; Financial WW3 Is Here, Wake Up; We Are Going To See Crazy Events Soon"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/22/23
"Society Will Only Get Worse; Financial WW3 Is Here, 
Wake Up; We Are Going To See Crazy Events Soon"
Comments here"

Canadian Prepper, "Warning! If You Haven't Done This You're Stupid"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/22/23
"Warning! If You Haven't Done This You're Stupid"
Comments here:

"Shocked! I Can't Believe The Mistake Israel Just Made"

Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 10/22/23
"Shocked! I Can't Believe The Mistake Israel Just Made"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Believe"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Believe"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Massive stars, abrasive winds, mountains of dust, and energetic light sculpt one of the largest and most picturesque regions of star formation in the Local Group of Galaxies. Known as N11, the region is visible on the upper right of many images of its home galaxy, the Milky Way neighbor known as the Large Magellanic Clouds (LMC).
The above image was taken for scientific purposes by the Hubble Space Telescope and reprocessed for artistry by an amateur to win the Hubble’s Hidden Treasures competition. Although the section imaged above is known as NGC 1763, the entire N11 emission nebula is second in LMC size only to 30 Doradus. Studying the stars in N11 has shown that it actually houses three successive generations of star formation. Compact globules of dark dust housing emerging young stars are also visible around the image.”

"The Curse of Interesting Times"

"The Curse of Interesting Times"
Things are the most interesting they've been
 in 80 years, 250 years, and, well, ever.
by Contemplations on the Tree of Woe

"The Chinese curse their enemies with the phrase “may you live in interesting times.” Or, rather, Americans think that Chinese curse their enemies like that; according to Infogalactic, “despite being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is no equivalent expression in Chinese.”

Fortunately, there’s an actual Chinese phrase that’s much more interesting. It’s found in a 1627 short story collection by Feng Menglong called "Stories to Awaken the World," and it states "better to be a dog in a peaceful time, than to be a human in a chaotic times.” And to be a dog in 17th China didn’t mean being a beloved fur baby with your own YouTube channel. It meant being a workbeast that got eaten when times were lean. The Chinese still have an annual dog meat festival.

Whichever adage you prefer, our times are both chaotic and interesting. In fact, they are monumentally interesting - they are so interesting as to beggar coherent description, to put to shame historical comparison, so remarkable that every single one of us would be justified in screaming from the rooftops in shock and awe. And yet we don’t. We keep calm and carry on, sturdily gripped by our bias for normalcy, by our human ability to adapt to even the most bizarre circumstances. It’ll be fine, we tell ourselves. This is fine.

But what if we put aside our normalcy bias for a moment and look at how just how “interesting” our times really are? What do we see then?

Once Every 80 Years…Once every 80 years, a country enters a crisis. That is, at least, the assertion of Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. According to Strauss and Howe, human history is organized into repeating patterns marked by four “turnings”: the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Crisis. Each turning is approximately 20 years long, and an entire cycle of four turnings is therefore about 80 years long. According to Strauss and Howe, American history looks something like this:

○ American Revolutionary Crisis, 1765 - 1785
○ American Civil War Crisis, 1855 - 1875
○ Great Depression and World War II Crisis, 1930 - 1950
○ You Are Here, 2010 - 2030

If we believe Strauss-Howe Generational Theory, we are in the midst of what they call a Fourth Turning - a moment of Crisis.

Are we in a Fourth Turning? I certainly believe so. As I documented in "Running on Empty," the United States now stands at a financial precipice. US inflation is at its worst in 40 years because the monetary system we established under Truman and rejuvenated under Nixon is now about to collapse. With that crisis have come challenges from a resurgent Russia and burgeoning China that could lead to a Third World War or, at best, a post-American world order. The Thucydides Trap has never been so close to springing. It’s no wonder then that US fears of nuclear war have surged to levels not seen since the Cold War. But unlike the Cold War, no one wants to ‘ask what they can do for their country’ anymore. US Army recruitment is at its worst in 50 years. And why would they want to serve? Our nation is divided into warring camps. US partisan distrust of the opposing party is at its worst in 30 years.

All right. That all sounds bad. But if Strauss-Howe Generational Theory is true, the Fourth Turning will be over in about 5-10 years and we’ll move into the next Turning, the High. And those are awesome! But what if we won’t be heading into another high?"
Full, fascinating, most highly recommended article is here:
Freely download "Stories to Awaken the World", 
by Feng Menglong, here:

"Here's A Question..."

“Here’s a question every angry man and woman needs to consider: How long are you going to allow people you don’t even like – people who are no longer in your life, maybe even people who aren’t even alive anymore – to control your life? How long?”
- Andy Stanley

“That goes for old wounds, too, you know. I really wish we’d had the chance to talk before this,” he says, cracking the window so the smoke can escape. “There’s a Longfellow quote I have stuck on my bulletin board at the church office – ‘There is no grief like the grief that does not speak’ – and it’s true. I’ve found that keeping pain inside doesn’t give it a chance to heal, but bringing it out into the light, holding it right there in your hands and trusting that you’re strong enough to make it through, not hating the pain, not loving it, just seeing it for what it really is can change how you go on from there. Time alone doesn’t heal emotional wounds, and you don’t want to live the rest of your life bottled up with anger and guilt and bitterness. That’s how people self-destruct.”
- Laura Wiess

"Buying Time"

"Buying Time"
Author Unknown

"A man came home from work late again, tired and irritated, to find his 5-year-old son waiting for him at the door. "Daddy, may I ask you a question?" "Yeah, sure, what is it?" replied the man. "Daddy, how much money do you make an hour?" "That's none of your business! What makes you ask such a thing?" the man said angrily. "I just want to know. Please tell me, how much do you make an hour?" pleaded the little boy. "If you must know, I make $20.00 an hour." "Oh," the little boy replied, head bowed. Looking up, he said, "Daddy, may I borrow $10.00 please?" 

The father was furious. "If the only reason you wanted to know how much money I make is just so you can borrow some to buy a silly toy or some other nonsense, then you march yourself straight to your room and go to bed. I work long, hard hours everyday and don't have time for such childish games." The little boy quietly went to his room and shut the door. The man sat down and started to get even madder about the little boy's questioning. How dare he ask such questions only to get some money?

After an hour or so, the man had calmed down, and started to think he may have been a little hard on his son. Maybe there was something he really needed to buy with that $10.00, and he really didn't ask for money very often. The man went to the door of the little boy's room and opened the door. "Are you asleep son?" he asked. "No daddy, I'm awake," replied the boy. "I've been thinking, maybe I was too hard on you earlier," said the man. "It's been a long day and I took my aggravation out on you. Here's that $10.00 you asked for." 

The little boy sat straight up, beaming. "Oh, thank you daddy!" he yelled. Then, reaching under his pillow, he pulled out some more crumpled up bills. The man, seeing that the boy already had money, started to get angry again. The little boy slowly counted out his money, then looked up at the man. "Why did you want more money if you already had some?" the father grumbled. "Because I didn't have enough, but now I do,"  the little boy replied. "Daddy, I have $20.00 now. Can I buy an hour of your time?" 

"Tyson Foods Partners With An Insect Protein Company!"

Adventures With Danno, PM 10/22/23
"Tyson Foods Partners With An Insect Protein Company!"
"We discuss how Tyson Foods has invested in an insect protein company named Protix. This is making some people feel uneasy as one of the world's largest food suppliers will be using insect proteins for many items."
Comments here:

"The Worst Credit Crisis Of Our Lifetime Is About To Collapse The Standard Of Living In America"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 10/22/23
"The Worst Credit Crisis Of Our Lifetime Is
 About To Collapse The Standard Of Living In America"

"The worst credit crisis in our lifetime has already begun, with banks facing losses bigger than during the Great Recession of 2008. American consumers are going to be deeply hurt by it too. From now on, getting loans and accruing credit card debt is going to cost you even more. Last week, after reporting earnings, several major banks announced they will no longer lend money at the same rates they have been in recent years. They are going to be more wary about who they lend to, how much they lend, and the terms of what they lend. With the number of bad loans rapidly surging, and the decline of the commercial real estate market threatening to trigger a wave of defaults, many financial institutions are at risk of collapsing. That’s why they are now taking drastic measures to prevent even bigger losses from happening in the months ahead.

However, considering the current outlook for debt delinquencies and defaults, particularly as more shoppers and businesses turn to credit to stay afloat, many of these institutions sitting on thin ice are likely to sink before the end of the year. That’s what analysts with the Federal Reserve of New York predicted in a new blog post. Notably, the credit card market is starting to show its cracks as more Americans fall into financial hardship.

Now that we just entered the fourth quarter, the average credit card interest rate jumped to a shocking, all-time record of 24.45%. Some cards — retail store cards, in particular — charge more than 30%, as revealed by Ted Rossman, an industry analyst for CreditCards.com. Those massive rates are responsible for sinking 22% of credit card users in the U.S. deeper into debt each month, Clever Real Estate reported. In fact, between January and September, U.S. cardholders paid $163.89 billion in credit card interest and fees.

At the same time, the number of people missing payments is going through the roof. In the past year, 43% of Americans have missed at least one credit card payment. Right now, 5.08% of credit card balances are in serious delinquency or at least 90 days past due, the Fed reported. That marked the biggest increase since the second quarter of 2022 when the rate was at 3.52%.

Issuers need to be very cautious about rising credit card and loan delinquencies and defaults because they have a much bigger fish on their plate: Commercial Real Estate. Although consumer debt alone can put small and mid-size banks at risk, big banks that lend millions of dollars to the construction of commercial buildings are in serious danger of going under.

This is not just a nightmare scenario for consumers but for U.S. businesses too. It’s precisely when a company has a couple of orders canceled on them and the business goes to its local bank and asks for a line of credit to see them through, but the bank says “no” that struggling businesses turn into failing businesses. There’s a much higher risk of bankruptcies happening when lending conditions tighten.

Simply put, if banks don’t tighten lines of credit for consumers and businesses, they risk facing steeper losses, and a potential failure. But if they reduce lending, they put businesses at risk of collapsing and defaulting on bank loans, which also puts them at risk of potential failure. And on of everything else, these institutions are vulnerable to an even bigger financial blow stemming from commercial real estate. It seems that no matter what they do, at the end of the day, the outcome is going to be disastrous for everyone."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Alexandria, Virginia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Remember..."

"Remember, we all stumble, every one of us.
That's why it's a comfort to go hand in hand."
- Emily Kimbrough

The Poet: Czeslaw Milosz, Czeslaw Milosz

“A Song On The End Of The World”

“On the day the world ends
A bee circles a clover,
A fisherman mends a glimmering net.
Happy porpoises jump in the sea,
By the rainspout young sparrows are playing
And the snake is gold-skinned as it should always be.

On the day the world ends
Women walk through the fields under their umbrellas,
A drunkard grows sleepy at the edge of a lawn,
Vegetable peddlers shout in the street
And a yellow-sailed boat comes nearer the island,
The voice of a violin lasts in the air
And leads into a starry night.
And those who expected lightning and thunder
Are disappointed.

And those who expected signs and archangels’ trumps
Do not believe it is happening now.
As long as the sun and the moon are above,
As long as the bumblebee visits a rose,
As long as rosy infants are born
No one believes it is happening now.

Only a white-haired old man, who would be a prophet
Yet is not a prophet, for he’s much too busy,
Repeats while he binds his tomatoes:
There will be no other end of the world,
There will be no other end of the world.”

~  Czeslaw Milosz

"I Hope I End Up..."

“I don’t want to pass through life like a smooth plane ride. All you do is get to breathe and copulate and finally die. I don’t want to go with the smooth skin and the calm brow. I hope I end up a blithering idiot cursing the sun - hallucinating, screaming, giving obscene and inane lectures on street corners and public parks. People will walk by and say, “Look at that drooling idiot. What a basket case.” I will turn and say to them, “It is you who are the basket case! For every moment you hated your job, cursed your wife and sold yourself to a dream that you didn’t even conceive. For the times your soul screamed yes and you said no. For all of that. For your self-torture, I see the glowing eyes of the sun! The air talks to me! I am at all times!” And maybe, the passersby will drop a coin into my cup.”
- Henry Rollins

"The Agony Of The Script Writers"

"The Agony Of The Script Writers"
by Paul Rosenberg

"The great philosopher Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until I punch them in the face.” He was, of course, paraphrasing the great Prussian field marshal, Helmuth von Moltke, who said, “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” That is an abbreviated version of the original. Some version of this expression no doubt exists in most languages, as it is an essential part of human existence. All plans suffer from the faults of the people making the plans.

We may be seeing this unfold in the Levant, where the Israeli plan to exterminate Hamas and anyone near them is running into trouble. The narrative unleashed on the public was that the attack on the drug rave near Gaza, in which an undetermined number of people were killed, was the red line. The Israelis were now justified in taking any and all necessary steps to eradicate this threat. All media nodes were activated to whip up support for maximum vengeance against Gaza,

Curiously, it was not just Israel whipping support. The Washington regime swung into action with more than just words of support. Every administration official was sent out to cry in public while demanding blood. Word was leaked to regime media that Washington told Tel Aviv they had a green light for anything. They sent two carrier groups the eastern Mediterranean in support of the project. Top diplomats were sent to Israel to express their unwavering loyalty to Israel.

As an aside, the dispatching of two carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean only makes sense if Washington expects to be in an air war. Given that Hamas lacks an air force, it must mean they are thinking about a neighboring country. There has also been talk about moving another attack group to the northern part of the Indian Ocean, within reach of Iran. You do not need these assets to launch a rescue mission into Gaza and they are not needed to supply Israel with weapons.

You do not have to be a suspicious person to think that maybe there was something else going on here rather than just a response to a terrorist attack. Israel and the Palestinians have been at this for half a century. This Hamas attack was an unusually successful action on their part, but it was not that unusual. They stage these raids all the time, which is why Israel spends enormous amounts of American tax dollars on the world’s most advanced border security.

One possibility is that this Hamas attack was catalyst for a larger narrative developed in Washington for when the time was right. Israel would be seen as pushed into a corner with no choice but to preemptively strike at its enemies. These enemies would be aligned with Iran, which would then come to the aid of them. This would trigger a wider war with Iran, which would be when the United States joined in to attack the nuclear, missile and drone facilities in Iran.

That skeleton of a narrative was quickly filled in with the Hamas attack. Note that regime media was filled with claims about Hamas being an Iranian proxy and that this attack had to be planned by Iran. In reality, Hamas gets its support from Qatar and was a creation of Washington and Tel Aviv. Iran has provided support over the years, but they have little control over Hamas. Few people know this, so these details could be bulldozed by the wave of claims to the contrary.

Israel immediately went to work dropping bombs on Gaza, while saying quite plainly that the intent was to drive the people out of Gaza. According to the pro-Israel media complex, the Palestinians have forfeited their right to exist by their ongoing support of Hamas, so Israel had the right to use any means necessary on them. The rhetoric and immediate actions were over the top, but most likely intended to elicit a response from Iran in support of the Palestinians.

Looking at the rhetoric, Washington must have been thinking that Iran would greenlight Hezbollah to launch cross border attacks from Lebanon. They spent a couple of days warning against such an act. Israel launched some attacks into Lebanon, probably on the same assumption. They also launched an air raid on the Damascus airport, probably for the same reason. The script said Hezbollah would attack so Israel just assumed it would happen and acted accordingly.

Outpacing the script is something we have seen with Ukraine. Washington created a narrative for the Ukrainian offensive last spring, which said that they would burst through Russian defenses and reach the Sea of Azov in a few weeks. This would set off a crisis in Moscow, maybe even topple Putin. They were so sure this would happen they even planned a peace conference in Saudi Arabia, without inviting Russia, in order to determine the terms that would be imposed on Russia.

The great Ukrainian offensive was a disaster, complete with images of burning Western tanks and video of Ukrainian soldiers trapped in mine fields. Instead of marching to the Sea of Azov, the Ukrainians marched into thick minefields without air cover and were destroyed by Russian air power and artillery. It took months for this reality to sink into Washington, so they continued on as if the script was reality. Only recently have they abandoned the script they created last winter.

That is something to keep in mind with this new script. Iran did not take the bait and has instead called for negotiations. Hezbollah has stayed quiet, despite the Israel attacks on their facilities in Lebanon. Instead of offering an excuse for the regime to launch attacks on Iran, the Iranians are backing the play of Russia and China to find a diplomatic solution to the Gaza problem. Washington remains committed to their bit, but it is clear that the Middle East is not playing its part.

Where things go from here is hard to say. The Arab world is slowly figuring out that they are being gas lit by Washington. Biden’s trip to the region was scaled back to just a goodwill visit to Israel. This is happening as the world debates who dropped a missile on a hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel says Hamas bombed themselves, while everyone else says it was Israel. Odds are it was Israel, and it was simply a mistake, which happens in war.

Then you have the fact that the IDF does not want to enter Gaza. A ground campaign would be a bloody and expensive project. There is no guarantee of success, given the history of such efforts. There are up to half a million fighting age men in Gaza, which is one of the most densely populated places on earth. Imagine a guerilla war in Manhattan and you have a good idea. It took the Russians six months to take Mariupol and that is a city a quarter of the size of Gaza.

Instead of an excuse to bomb Iran and maybe Syria, the narrative writers are slowly getting boxed in by the diplomatic efforts of Russia and China. Putin has had one-on-one talks with all of the players, including Israel. China is coming in with promises of financial support for the peacemakers. Meanwhile, Washington is saber rattling and carrying on as if their script for this project is reality. It is not a good look and probably why Arab leaders refused to meet with Biden.

Washington now finds itself on the wrong side of a war that no one really wants, especially the Israelis. As is the case with all of the narratives dreamed up by Washington, this one does not come with an exit ramp. A week of fiery rhetoric in favor of righteous retribution and threats to anyone saying otherwise has left the administration with few options. As with the Ukraine offensive, they may be forced to pretend everything is going according to the script."
o
DDGeopolitics, 10/22/23
"Scott Ritter On the Israel-Palestine 
Conflict and the US Leading Us Into WW3"
"Former US Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter joins us to talk about the Israel-Palestine conflict, US weapons deliveries to Ukraine and Israel, recent attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria, as well as the alleged attack on the USS Carney in the Gulf of Aden. Learn about the Iraqi Resistance, how they operate, what these attacks mean for the region and much more..."
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"How It Really Is"

Dan, I Allegedly, "It’s As Good As Money"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 10/22/23
"It’s As Good As Money"
"I am amazed at how stupid some people are. The defense for the FTX trial is trying to claim that having digits on electronic screen is as good as real money. We all know that the money was spent, and did not exist at FTX. Plus, I show you the progress for the Formula One race that’s coming up next month in Las Vegas."
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"12 Big Restaurants That Will Vanish In The Next 2 - 3 Months"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report. 10/22/23
"12 Big Restaurants That Will
 Vanish In The Next 2 - 3 Months"
"In recent videos, we’ve seen how grocery shopping is declining because of the economic hardship being faced by millions of people. But have you stopped to wonder about the extent of the decline in patronage for fast food chains and restaurants? I mean, if people cannot afford to get enough food items for home cooking, how much more for regular, pricey meals? People are tightening their belts and dining out less frequently.

Decreasing sales and foot traffic at physical locations are among the key factors driving chains to exit the market or even file for bankruptcy. Not even the industry giants are immune to the issues plaguing the sector in 2023. What we’re seeing now is several big restaurants filing for bankruptcy because they can longer afford to stay in business."
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