Friday, November 12, 2021

"The U.S. Is a Powder Keg"

"The U.S. Is a Powder Keg"
by Jeffrey Tucker

"Last night I did my usual grocery run. I don’t shop at stores with philosophies. I go for el cheapo places that don’t have olive bars and don’t play Schubert on the intercom. I just want the stuff I need at the lowest possible prices. Even I was stunned at the 40% increase in my usual bill. I thought I was buying in a minimalist way.

Later I looked more carefully at what went wrong. I bought beef and bacon. Beef price increases are now at double-digit rates, and bacon is even higher. You are paying much more per pound than one year ago. Pork and chicken are less, but that could change. Turkeys are in short supply for Thanksgiving. It will be the most expensive Thanksgiving meal in our lifetimes.

Stores don’t tag groceries based on the percentage increases in prices. Those you have to remember from last week and last month. Indeed, stores have every reason to disguise this. Manufacturers too, which is why packaging these days is holding ever less product. This is called “shrinkflation.” It is an epidemic right now, as manufacturers are struggling to survive huge increases in their own costs.

Biggest Inflation Spike in Over 30 Years: The Consumer Price Index came out this week. It revealed that consumer prices soared 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation spike in over 30 years. And it’s probably even worse than the official figures show. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index revealed that the year-over-year change in the index for construction materials is up almost 20%.

Now let’s look at gasoline. You experience it daily, the high prices at the pump. Last year at this time, the average price per gallon was $1.81. Now it is $3.40. It is also rising as demand intensifies and supply faces restrictions.

Most important here are the monetary effects, as all the money that the Fed sloshed up in the last 20 months reduces its value or what it can buy. This inflation will never hit all products and all sectors evenly. It moves from sector to sector. These days the toxin is moving so fast and in so many directions it makes one’s head spin.

Not So Thrifty: We keep hoping each month to get good news. Perhaps the Fed will prove correct that inflation is only transitory. Sadly, that is not likely. They have been way off in their predictions. The Producer Price Index is the one to watch because these price increases get passed on to consumer prices as inventory is depleted.

Clothing is a case in point. We are already facing high prices and shortages on the shelves. This is driving people to the thrift stores. The major headlines are starting to show this. Thrift store prices too are on the increase, as I predicted last month. The percent change in the producer prices that go into making polyester clothing is now up 23.6%.

Even if monetary policy is fixed, even if supply chains are repaired, even if the clogs at the dock are unclogged, it will be months before this figures into consumer prices. Sadly, there is almost no chance that any of these good changes happen, meaning that these higher and higher prices are here to stay.

A Broken State: As I’ve mentioned before, there is something about American political culture that is especially averse to inflation. People frankly hate it, especially since we’ve lived 40-plus years without consumer inflation being a particularly pressing problem. Now looking at price trends creates shock and even hatred. It is hitting the Biden administration particularly hard.

A USA Today poll shows that Biden’s approval has sunk to 38%. The trend line here is truly devastating. We can speculate why. Inflation plays a role. But also the vaccine mandate seems to have hit the Biden approval rating very hard. In the coming month, millions of jobs could be affected by this. The protests are growing in every city, and the people protesting are union members, city employees and even tech workers. They are furious that government would presume the right to tell people what medicines they must inject into their bodies.

Some of the protesters are themselves vaccinated against their will. They are bitter and angry about it. The news of adverse outcomes from vaccination is leaking out through family networks and alternative news venues, though it continues to be suppressed by the media. So this mandate is now being seen as a direct threat to individual health. That’s something that will inspire people to take to the streets.

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued a stay against OSHA’s mandate on businesses. The Biden administration attempted a response, but the result was lame. It just said that it stands by the mandate on health grounds, period. Perhaps this won’t surprise you, but the president himself instructed businesses to go ahead and proceed, essentially advocating that they ignore the court ruling. In other words, the Biden administration has gone completely lawless, not just ignoring the U.S. Constitution but also advocating that businesses ignore the courts. That’s dangerously close to announcing that we now live with dictatorship.

It’s no wonder that even Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is talking about secession from the union. If he is saying this, I truly cannot imagine the kind of anger there is among the citizens.

If you wanted to live in exciting times, you chose a great time to be alive. The conditions are ripe not only for continuing electoral bloodbaths but more street protests, explosive town halls, hate-filled school board meetings and much worse. A more divisive and destructive policy is hard to imagine. Sadly, these policies are dividing friends and family. Some people with vaccinations don’t see the big deal here. Just get the jab, they say, and then you can be free. Others find this idea to be outrageous, an immoral acquiescence to power that can only lead to even worse outcomes.

Powder Keg: I just watched several hours of testimony from big shots at the NIH and the CDC. It might as well have been a paid advertisement from Moderna and Pfizer. Nearly every word out of the bureaucrats’ mouths was structured to push the vaccines that most everyone knows by now have failed to live up to their promise. Indeed, if they were as good and safe as they say, government would not need to mandate them. The mandates, ironically, undermine public confidence. It’s hard to imagine that public confidence in everything could fall further, but it will. To top it off, making all the above much worse, the vaccination is now coming for the kids.

Mandates will surely follow. You want revolution in this country? This is a good way to foment one. The current regime has another year of unchecked power. It seems unfathomable. So far, they have not been deterred by anything, not the courts, not public opinion, not even sinking election prospects. The U.S. has become a powder keg."

"Ode to Elon"

"Ode to Elon"
by Bill Bonner

"What men or gods are these? What maidens loth?
What mad pursuit? What struggle to escape?
What pipes and timbrels? What wild ecstasy?
Heard melodies are sweet, but those unheard
Are sweeter; therefore, ye soft pipes, play on..."

– "Ode on a Grecian Urn", by John Keats

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – What a wonderful time to be alive! Wait… A news flash… Our Doom Index has just hit “8”… which is “Crash Alert” level. Details on Monday… Meanwhile, the world is just chock-a-block with marvelous, magical, absurd, and absolutely ridiculous things. Like a city sewer in a flood, we are awash in things best not looked at too closely. But since it’s Friday, let us at least take a look at something that happened this very week.

3,519,252 Financial Advisors: As every sentient being on the planet knows, Elon Musk, the world’s richest – and clearly, cleverest – man decided to guide his financial life via a Twitter poll. That is, he asked the Twitter-sphere if he should sell 10% of his stake in Tesla (TSLA). This is obviously a novel way of making decisions. And perhaps better.

If two heads are better than one… surely, the 3,519,252 poll respondents, including the 2,037,647 who answered “Yay,” raise the quality of the decision at least to a C+. What is most amazing about the whole thing is that 3,519,252 people… all supposedly compos mentis… probably adult-ish… presumably with real lives… actually found the time to weigh in on a financial question that didn’t concern them. The decision would normally be of interest to only one, the very one person who – if results are anything to go on – is the most qualified human being to make the call. After all, if the world’s most successful man can’t decide when to buy or sell his own stock, who can?

Have Your Say: And now that we see that there are so many people ready to help with our personal decision-making… perhaps we should make use of it. Should we have a cafĂ© latte this morning… or a cappuccino? You decide for us. Where should we invest? In stocks? Bonds? Farmland in Argentina or Nicaragua (prices are low because they are… like… disaster areas)? Tell us, please. Is it time to buy a new pair of blue jeans?https://click.exct.bonnerandpartners.com/?qs=75c5d79c0d6f10e66219d3fe4c19e140d2571345f6c3d1330a6be7eba16686c286f3f425369777396c01bf987d40b8f3c3afff3c6c1184ed Get a COVID booster shot? Wink at the pretty barista? We need guidance.

We invite replies and promise to abide by the results as faithfully as we would if they came from the U.S. federal government or the Papal See.

Twitter Says Sell! So, let’s return to the other curiosities surrounding this story. And don’t worry if we get the facts wrong; they hardly matter. What matters is the cockeyed principle of the thing… which is what we’re trying to figure out. In any event, Musk’s poll was taken. The twitterers rendered judgement. And it was in the affirmative.

This news then had a remarkable effect (but not at all unanticipated… at least, not by Elon Musk’s bro, Kimbal, who sold $109 million worth of shares on Friday). Earlier this week, Tesla stock fell, wiping out nearly $235 billion from the value of the company. That vanished $235 billion represents more than the combined value of GM, BMW, and Ford. In other words… Well… there really are no words that can do the situation justice.

Elon Effect: Investors who judged the stock worth $1,243 on Thursday of last week found it was worth only $1,011 on Tuesday of this week. Same company. Same products. Same earnings. Same markets. Same Joe Biden. Same Elon Musk. Same customers. Same problems. Same weather. Same COVID. Same everything. So why would a share be nearly 19% less valuable? We hope you’re not expecting an answer from us.

As far as we can tell, Elon is sui generis… an economic law all of his own. God? Man? We can’t say. But when he pipes up… investors hear melodies so sweet, they can’t resist. If he buys something, it goes up. If he mentions something, it goes up. Even if he mentions something else by mistake, it goes up, too. So far, the Elon Effect is the most reliable indicator in modern finance.

Enrichment of Elon: And now, Elon is the richest biped ever to walk on the planet. That is odd, too, considering that up ‘til now, his contribution, in goods and services, is worth (net) less than zero. Add up all the money that has been invested in Elon’s projects. Subtract the value of all goods and services (mainly Tesla cars) rendered. Do this for Edison, Ford, Rockefeller, Jobs, even Zuckerberg – almost any really rich person – and the sum will be hugely positive. Their companies make profits by providing goods and/or services that are more valuable than the resources (including capital and labor) that go into them.

We’re not going to do the math for Elon. It’s too much work. But the result must be a staggeringly negative number. His businesses do not make money; they lose it. They destroy wealth; they don’t create it. He is so rich because the Federal Reserve has falsified the value of capital… and rigged the auto market with carbon credits. There is also the mysterious Elon Effect, for which we offer no explanation.

Enrichment of the Elites: The enrichment of Elon, in other words, parallels the growing wealth of the entire elite caste. It is not based on actual output – neither on sales nor on profits – but on fake money and fake interest rates. It favors gamblers… showmen…geniuses, as well as grifters. And as we saw this week, it goes as well as comes."

"Economic Collapse Will Be On The Thanksgiving Menu - Be Prepared"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly AM 11/12/21:
"Economic Collapse Will Be On The 
Thanksgiving Menu - Be Prepared"
"It is better to be ready than to get ready. There is still time to prepare to stock up on supplies, food, security and have some cash on hand. Economic collapse is on the menu this Thanksgiving."

Gregory Mannarino, "HYPER-Bubble? Is The Stock Market REALLY In A Bubble? And Is It About To Burst?"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 11/12/21:
"HYPER-Bubble? Is The Stock Market REALLY In A Bubble? 
And Is It About To Burst?"

"How It Really Is"

 

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 11/12/21"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 11/12/21"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"The Chinese property company called Evergrande has officially gone under and is defaulting on much of its debt. The legacy financial media lied and told investors that the company was making interest payments when it was clearly not. What is going to happen now? It is only a matter of time before the global economy takes a big hit. The knock-on effect will be stunning for the unprepared. This event is something you best take notice of. You have been warned is the take-away here.

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It either stops the bond buying and the market crashes or they keep printing cash and inflation will crash the markets. Either way, the markets are going to crash if the entire financial system does not implode first. Again, you have been warned.

One of the few bright spots is gold and Bitcoin prices. They are up and going higher. They smell trouble, and people are running for cover. That move is just getting started."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these stories and more in the "Weekly News Wrap-Up 11.12.21".  View video here: https://rumble.com/

After the Wrap-Up: Financial and geo-political cycle expert Martin Armstrong will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.  He will tell us what he sees coming, and it’s not going to be pretty.

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Gregory Mannarino, "The Fed. Made A Mistake? They Are Trapped? They Lost Control? How About NO! This Is All By Design"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 11/11/21:
"The Fed. Made A Mistake? They Are Trapped? 
They Lost Control? How About NO! This Is All By Design"

Gerald Celente, "Trends in The News 11/11/21"

Strong Language Alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends in The News 11/11/21"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

"Inflation is the Highest Tax - We Are Being Taxed to Oblivion"

 

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 11/11/21:
"Inflation is the Highest Tax - 
We Are Being Taxed to Oblivion"
"Inflation is out of control. This is truly the highest tax that we pay. The worst problem is that there is no control to it. We don’t know when it’s going to end and how high it will go."

Musical Interlude: 2002, "River Of Stars"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "River Of Stars"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"NGC 1333 is seen in visible light as a reflection nebula, dominated by bluish hues characteristic of starlight reflected by interstellar dust. A mere 1,000 light-years distant toward the heroic constellation Perseus, it lies at the edge of a large, star-forming molecular cloud. 
This telescopic close-up spans about two full moons on the sky or just over 15 light-years at the estimated distance of NGC 1333. It shows details of the dusty region along with telltale hints of contrasty red emission from Herbig-Haro objects, jets and shocked glowing gas emanating from recently formed stars. In fact, NGC 1333 contains hundreds of stars less than a million years old, most still hidden from optical telescopes by the pervasive stardust. The chaotic environment may be similar to one in which our own Sun formed over 4.5 billion years ago."

"An Insider Revealed Containers Piled Up As Far As The Eye Can See As Supply Chain Crisis Deepens"

Full screen recommended.
"An Insider Revealed Containers Piled Up As Far As 
The Eye Can See As Supply Chain Crisis Deepens"
by Epic Economist

"Last year the US economy suddenly ground into a halt. This year, things eventually picked up speed and started moving again, but only to get stuck in the biggest logjam ever recorded in our nation's history. Our supply chains are suffering from extended disruptions and the severity of this crisis is already apparent to the naked eye. Consumers are witnessing empty shelves in major supermarkets all around the country. Car plants are being shut down due to a shortage of semiconductors. Ports remain extremely congested, and millions of containers are now stuck at cargo ships outside the coast of California that can wait up to a month for a berth to finally be able to dock.

The situation is so out of control that things have been similarly chaotic onshore, where hundreds of thousands of containers are being piled up after being unloaded from those massive ships. As one industry insider described, right now, the backlog of containers stretches "as far as the eye can see." In one very revealing video recently posted on social media, a dockworker showed the gigantic piles of undelivered shipping containers sitting at a key US port, exposing the true extent of the supply chain crisis plaguing our nation.

Over the past year, numerous disruptions were recorded. Months ago, a key index for the industry found that shortages caused by supply chain bottlenecks jumped by over 400 percent from 2020 levels. A combination of several issues, including steep imbalances between supply and demand, a slowdown in global manufacturing, rising shipping and logistics costs, and severe worker shortages have all contributed to the worsening situation we're seeing today.In the video released on TikTok, the supply chain worker who said to be in charge of "crane operations" used his smartphone to document the staggering amount of shipping containers stacked and awaiting distribution on the quayside.

The TikTok video uploaded on October 13 has already over 3.6. million views on the social media site. In the 30-second clip, you can also hear the worker complaining about the status quo. The user identified as Stanimal18 has 12 other videos documenting the shipping container industry. In one of them, he says that "one of the reasons everything is backed up is that our container yards are stuffed to the hilt with containers."

Most US retailers did not anticipate the enormous growth in consumer demand, adds the executive director of the Port of Houston Roger Guenther. "When everybody was staying home and they were getting stimulus checks, they started buying. Since they weren't going on vacation and going to restaurants and buying services, they started buying furniture and bicycles and home improvement goods," he said. As they try to make up for the lost sales, some of them increase their orders by up to four times. However, the panic ordering retailers have been doing resulted in an even bigger backlog, and congestion is becoming so acute that shippers are transferring ships that arrive in California to other ports, such as the Port of Houston, New Jersey, or Savannah.

At this point, all available space in the port of Houston is occupied by immense towers of multicolored containers that can get stranded for weeks until trucks arrive to haul them to distribution centers. Even though there's plenty of supply, millions of products remain trapped at ports and out of the reach of consumers due to lengthy delivery delays, which are causing shortages at a national and local level. As the holiday season approaches, Americans are already getting increasingly frustrated with the growing number of out-of-stock items as the crisis threatens to ruin Christmas. In October alone, online shoppers received nearly 2 billion out-of-stock messages -- three times more than during the same period in 2019 -- according to an Adobe Analytics study released Tuesday. The analysis tracked one trillion visits to US retail sites.

The undeniable interconnectedness of our supply chains used to be a sign of strength and resilience for the global economy. Right now, as each and every country faces its own struggles, our reliance on this global system threatens to plunge our economy into another recession - one much worse than what happened in 2020. This time, as the economy slumps, the price of everything skyrockets. And experts are warning that the worst is yet to come for the supply chain crisis, so buckle up and get ready for a bumpy ride."

"Homeowners Tapping Into Equity ATM; Overstimulated Economy Over Heating"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 11/11/21:
"Homeowners Tapping Into Equity ATM; 
Overstimulated Economy Over Heating"

The Daily "Near You?"

Blanco, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Most Expensive Thanksgiving Ever!"

"Most Expensive Thanksgiving Ever!"
by Bill Bonner

"Policy failures will be responsible for tens of thousands of families getting stranded at airports, paying exorbitant gas prices, and encountering grocery store shortages. Americans face the most expensive Thanksgiving on record."
– The Hill

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report came out just after we filed yesterday’s Diary. The Washington Post broke the news: "Prices rose 6.2 percent in October compared with a year ago, the largest annual increase in about 30 years, as rising inflation complicates the political agenda for the White House and policymakers’ road map for the economy heading into the end of the year. Overall prices rose 0.9 percent from September to October, tying June for the biggest one-month increase since the Great Recession. Only a few categories saw prices fall last month, including airfare and alcohol."

But don’t worry. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who insisted that inflation was only “transitory,” now promises to make it go away: "…we understand completely that it’s particularly people who are living paycheck to paycheck or seeing higher grocery costs, higher gasoline costs, when the winter comes, higher heating costs for their homes. We understand completely what they're going through. And we will use our tools over time to make sure that that doesn’t become a permanent feature of life."

But a 6% inflation rate wreaks havoc. The current yield on the world’s most important asset – the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – is only 1.46%. The 10-year Treasury is the backbone of pension funds, corporate savings, Social Security, insurance programs, and other institutional holdings. But at this rate, they’re losing 4.54% of their money each year. Who wants to take that deal? That’s why U.S. deficits… like those in Argentina… are now being funded almost entirely by “printing press” money.

No Escape: We keep busy on weekends with DIY projects. Every time we go to the lumber yard, we’re staggered by the price increases. Overall, construction materials are up 31% year on year. Gasoline is running at 62% more than a year ago. Meanwhile, wages are going up at a 5% rate. But subtract the losses from inflation, and the average working man is actually getting poorer. The Wall Street Journal reports that “real wages are down 2.2% since January.” That’s the way the inflation tax works… It falls most heavily on the poor and middle classes, who have no way to escape it.

Clean Getaway: The feds added about $3 trillion in new cash – based on the Fed’s balance sheet – between 2007 and 2019… and then another $5 trillion since then. Those chickens are now descending on the U.S. economy, like a flock of vultures. And so, the inflators are doing their best to lay the blame anywhere and everywhere… except where it belongs.

Joe Biden has already told the Federal Trade Commission to find some patsies. It is supposed to “strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging [in the energy sector],” he says. And yesterday, he came to Baltimore again. He went down to the harbor and pretended to “do something” that will solve the “supply chain disruption” problem, whatever that is…The Washington Post, a “paper of record” for U.S. politics and an all-purpose shill for the ruling elite, eagerly helped mislead the public. Here’s the subhead from yesterday’s article quoted above, pointing the finger in the wrong direction, so the real culprits can make a clean getaway: "It’s unclear when supply chains will clear, especially given how vulnerable the economy remains to the pandemic." Damned supply chains!

From Bad to Worse: According to the servile press, Biden’s $1 trillion in new “infrastructure” spending – almost every penny of which will be financed with more printing-press money – will help fix the “supply chain problem.” We can’t wait to see the follow-up story: "Biden Mends Supply Chains By Printing More Money; Prices Fall." Don’t hold your breath. Not going to happen.

First, because Biden knows nothing about supply chains, he has no clue about what’s wrong with them or how to fix them. Second, because the supply chains are not the real problem. They’re just being used as a “rope-a-dope” by the elite press. And third, because more money-printing will make the real problem – monetary inflation – worse, not better.

And so approaches the moment of truth, when the Fed will have to lay its cards on the table… Raise interest rates to limit inflation? Or let ‘er rip… Blame the supply chain and protect the elite? Stay tuned…"

Gregory Mannarino, "Global GDP Is Plummeting And Real Wages Are Cratering"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 11/11/21:
"Global GDP Is Plummeting And Real Wages Are Cratering"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Veterans Day, November 11, 2021"

With respect, honor and gratitude we
thank you for your service and sacrifice!

"They Have Lost Control, And Now The Dollar Is Going To Die"

"They Have Lost Control, 
And Now The Dollar Is Going To Die"
by Michael Snyder

"I think that they actually believed that they could get away with it. I think that they were actually convinced that they could create, borrow and spend trillions upon trillions of dollars without any serious long-term consequences. But they should have known better. The people running things are very highly “educated”, and after spending decades getting to their current positions they are supposed to be “experts” that we can trust with very difficult decisions. Unfortunately, the “experts” have put us on a path that leads to currency collapse and financial ruin.

All throughout history, there have been many governments that have given in to the temptation to create money at an exponential rate, and it has ended badly every single time.So our leaders should have known better. But it is just so tempting, because pumping out money like crazy always seems to work out just great at first. For example, when the Weimar Republic first started wildly creating money it created an economic boom, but we all know how that experiment turned out in the end.

This week, the mainstream media is full of talk about inflation, and many of the talking heads seem mystified that things have gotten so bad. But anyone with half a brain should have been able to see that this was coming. Just look at what has been happening to M2 since the start of the pandemic.
What we have been doing to the money supply is complete and utter lunacy, and this is inevitably going to kill the U.S. dollar eventually. Next, I would like for you to take a look at how rapidly the Fed balance sheet has been rising. This is the sort of thing that you would expect to see in a banana republic.
I think that our leaders deceived themselves into thinking that they could get away with creating money so recklessly, but they haven’t.

Very painful inflation is here, and on Wednesday we learned that prices have been rising at the fastest pace in more than 30 years…"The consumer price index, which is a basket of products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 6.2% from a year ago, the most since December 1990. That compared with the 5.9% Dow Jones estimate. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% against the 0.6% estimate."

If inflation continues to rise at about 1 percent a month, it won’t be too long before we are well into double digits on a yearly basis. Of course I don’t actually put too much faith in the inflation numbers that the government gives us, because the way inflation is calculated has been changed more than two dozen times since 1980. And every time the definition of inflation has been changed, the goal has been to make inflation appear to be lower.

According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if inflation was still calculated the way it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be close to 15 percent right now. This is a real national crisis, and it isn’t going away any time soon.

One of the factors that is driving up the overall rate of inflation is the price of gasoline. If you can believe it, the price of gas is almost 50 percent higher than it was last year at this time…"Gasoline prices last month shot up nearly 50% from the same month a year ago, putting them at levels last seen in 2014. Grocery prices climbed 5.4%, with pork prices up 14.1% from a year ago, the biggest increase since 1990.

Prices for new vehicles jumped 9.8% in October, the largest rise since 1975, while prices for furniture and bedding leapt by the most since 1951. Prices for tires and sports equipment rose by the most since the early 1980s. Even Joe Biden is using the term “exceedingly high” to describe the current state of gasoline prices."

Other forms of energy are also becoming a lot more expensive…"The price of electricity in October increased 6.5% from the same month a year ago while consumer expenses paid to utilities for gas went up 28%, according to numbers released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fuel oil rose 59%, and costs for propane, kerosene and firewood jumped by about 35%, the data show." It is going to cost you a lot more money to heat your home this winter. I hope that you are prepared for that.

Speaking of homes, they continued to shoot up in price during the third quarter…"The median price of single-family existing homes rose in nearly all - 99% - of the 183 markets tracked by the National Association of Realtors in the third quarter, with double-digit price increases seen in 78% of the markets. If our paychecks were rising fast enough to keep up with inflation, then at least our standard of living would remain the same. But that isn’t happening, is it?

In fact, the Labor Department’s own numbers show that real average hourly earnings are going down…"The Labor Department reported Friday that average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in October, about in line with estimates. That was the good news.

However, the department reported Wednesday that top-line inflation for the month increased 0.9%, far more than what had been expected. That was the bad news – very bad news, in fact. That’s because it meant that all told, real average hourly earnings when accounting for inflation, actually decreased 0.5% for the month." What this means is that our standard of living is going down. And it is going to keep going down.

In a desperate attempt to maintain the status quo, many Americans are taking on more debt than ever before…"American households are carrying record amounts of debt as home and auto prices surge, Covid infections continue to fall and people get out their credit cards again. Between July and September, US household debt climbed to a new record of $15.24 trillion, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday."

How in the world did we allow ourselves to get 15 trillion dollars in debt? Of course many would point out that the federal government is an even worse offender. Very shortly, the U.S. national debt will cross the 29 trillion dollar mark. As our leaders in Washington continue to engage in the greatest debt binge in world history, the U.S. dollar will steadily lose value. This is going to deeply affect everyone and everything in our society. For instance, just check out the pain that inflation is causing for one food bank in the San Francisco area

"In the prohibitively expensive San Francisco Bay Area, the Alameda County Community Food Bank in Oakland is spending an extra $60,000 a month on food. Combined with increased demand, it is now shelling out $1 million a month to distribute 4.5 million pounds (2 million kilograms) of food, said Michael Altfest, the Oakland food bank’s director of community engagement. Pre-pandemic, it was spending a quarter of the money for 2.5 million pounds (1.2 million kilograms) of food."

I warned you way ahead of time that this was coming, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning. The “experts” running the Fed and our politicians in Washington aren’t going to suddenly reverse direction. In fact, Congress just passed another gigantic spending bill that Joe Biden desperately wanted.

Our course has been set and there is no turning back. Our destination is economic collapse, and life in America will never, ever be the same again."

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

“Digital Dollars Flood The World; Wages Destroyed By Inflation; High Prices Crush Middle Class”

Jeremiah Babe, PM 11/10/21:
“Digital Dollars Flood The World; Wages Destroyed By Inflation; 
High Prices Crush Middle Class”

Musical Interlude: 2002, "We Meet Again"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "We Meet Again"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"It’s always nice to get a new view of an old friend. This stunning Hubble Space Telescope image of nearby spiral galaxy M66 is just that. A spiral galaxy with a small central bar, M66 is a member of the Leo Galaxy Triplet, a group of three galaxies about 30 million light years from us. The Leo Triplet is a popular target for relatively small telescopes, in part because M66 and its galactic companions M65 and NGC 3628 all appear separated by about the angular width of a full moon. 
The featured image of M66 was taken by Hubble to help investigate the connection between star formation and molecular gas clouds. Clearly visible are bright blue stars, pink ionized hydrogen clouds - sprinkled all along the outer spiral arms, and dark dust lanes in which more star formation could be hiding."

"Supply Chain Disruptions Will Continue"

"Supply Chain Disruptions Will Continue"
By Jim Rickards

"Forty percent of all the cargo into the United States comes through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Offshore, there are thousands of containers stacked up on vessels waiting to get in. How many containers can the ports unload on a normal day? New containers are coming in. There are daily arrivals. When will that supply chain backlog clear? The answer is never. If there are more coming in than you can unload and you have an existing backlog that’s getting worse, it will never clear.

But let’s just say that with no new shipments coming in, it would take 30 days just to unload what’s already waiting offshore. Thirty days, by the way, puts you into December and the Christmas rush. And getting it offloaded in California is just the beginning of the supply chain. You’ve got to put it on a train or a truck and get it to a distribution center and put it on another truck and get it to a store.

But wait, there’s also a trucking shortage. That’s a big part of the supply chain problem. If you can unload the merchandise but can’t transport it due to a trucking shortage, what good is it? So this is not getting better. That’s probably the understatement of the year.

You may have heard about a semiconductor shortage. But you don’t need a computer, so what’s the big deal? Well, no, there are semiconductors in everything. You have semiconductors in your refrigerator, dishwasher, home entertainment system, etc. The point is we’re highly dependent on vulnerable supply chains that are currently breaking down. Something radical is going to have to happen. We’re just going to have to stop importing goods. And China may actually oblige us, though not for these reasons…

China now has what’s called a zero-COVID policy. That means they’re not going to tolerate any cases. If they see a case, they’re going to take extreme actions, and they are. But this is a country of 1.4 billion people. It’s the second-largest economy in the world. You’re going to have zero COVID? Sorry, that’s not realistic. You can’t have zero COVID.

The policy is bound to fail. Ample evidence indicates lockdowns don’t work. Masks don’t work. The virus goes where it wants. It’s going to run its course and then fade, no matter what. But if you’ve decided that your policy is zero COVID cases? You’re just going to shut down your economy, or parts of your economy, cities, hubs, transportation networks, factories, more or less randomly. That reduces economic output, obviously, but it also breaks up the supply chain.

What if the particular outbreak shuts down a factory? Sure, that’s bad for the factory. But what if that factory is a critical supplier of intermediate parts to another factory that’s not shut down? Guess what? The other factory is going to be idle because they can’t get the parts.

The shutdown ripples, and that’s the key element. Global trade is a complex, dynamic system. It’s very efficient under normal circumstances. But what we know about complex, dynamic systems is that it takes very little to disturb them. A very small event somewhere in the system can cause the whole system to break down.

We have more than one event occurring, incidentally, and they’re not small. It’s therefore not surprising that the system is breaking down. China has a severe energy shortage right now. Well over 50% of its total electricity generation comes from coal fire plants. It gets most of its coal from Australia. But China started a trade war with Australia because Australia was calling for an independent investigation of the source of the COVID virus, which China didn’t want. The result has been a shortage of coal in China.

So what did China do? It imposed price controls on coal. But we all know that price controls don’t work; it’s basic economics. When you cap the price of coal, you get less of it. The coal shortages are not going away, and China is dealing with the shortages by diverting power to densely populated residential areas and housing. That’s understandable because the Chinese Communist Party doesn't want people freezing in the dark. That’s a good recipe for social unrest.

But if there’s an energy shortage and you’re diverting it to people for political reasons, then who gets deprived? The answer is factories. And so you shut down steel mills, for example, which again causes another disruption in the supply chain. It has a ripple effect.

One of the big industries in China is lithium mining. Well, if you shut down the mining because you don’t have coal to run the electricity, where are you going to get the lithium to make the lithium-ion batteries to get a new Tesla? The answer is you’re not. The waiting list for Teslas is about six months. I’m not going to get into a debate about Teslas, but if you want one, don’t think you’re getting one soon.

When you add it all up, we have a serious problem. I recently spoke to the CEO of a major corporation. He said, “Jim, what you have to understand is that it took us 30 years to build these supply chains. We blew it up in three years, beginning in 2018, and you can’t put it back together. This is Humpty Dumpty. It will take at least 10 years to reconstruct the supply chains if we don’t want to do it with China and globalization.” So don’t think that any of this is going away soon.

Germany’s another example. Due to pressure from environmentalist groups, Germany got rid of all its coal mines and nuclear plants. Guess what? The Germans are going to freeze in the dark this winter because they’re utterly dependent on natural gas, which is a fossil fuel, by the way. They can’t rely on wind and solar because they’re intermittent and can’t meet demand. Vladimir Putin controls the tap on the natural gas pipelines. He’s dialing it down. He’s saying, “You want natural gas? Be prepared to pay me a lot of money, or you’re just not getting it.” That’s going to hurt German industrial production, which is already going down. Again, that results in more supply chain disruption.

Now let’s consider the role of vaccine mandates in supply chain disruptions… The Biden administration is pushing mandates hard. There are also lots of state and city mandates, especially in blue states. The bluer the state, generally speaking, the stricter the mandates.

Now, these experimental mRNA vaccines don’t stop you from acquiring the virus or from spreading it to others, and their effectiveness fades with time, so mandates really have little scientific basis. But put all these considerations aside and focus on their practical effects.

Take a look at the aviation industry. There are thousands, perhaps millions, of components that go into the manufacturing of an aircraft. Those components are specialized and they’re made in different places. Then they’re shipped and assembled. The avionics industry (aviation electronics) is very heavily concentrated in the vicinity of Wichita, Kansas, for historical and other reasons. It’s like the Silicon Valley of avionics.

But the industry has a very low participation rate in the vaccine mandates, meaning about 50%. Nationally, about 80% have received at least one dose. But in this particular industry, maybe because it’s more male-oriented, maybe because it’s more conservative, the rate is much smaller. The reason doesn’t really matter.

But if they’re not vaccinated by now, they probably aren’t going to be. It’s not like they don’t know these things are available for free at the local CVS. Since they won’t obey the mandates, they’re going to quit, get fired, take early retirement, etc. That means a shortage in critical avionics.

What does it mean when the airlines cannot get their avionics updated? It means those planes go out of service, potentially, or they put them in for service and they don’t come out for a long time. We’re talking six months for some of the more sophisticated navigation and communication systems. The backlogs are already building in that industry. How does it help the economy if planes are sitting idle because of components shortages?

And look at the impact of mandates on pilots. Many pilots are hesitant to take the vaccine because studies indicate pilots are more susceptible to developing blood clots than the general population. Well, guess what’s a known side effect of the vaccine? You guessed it, blood clots. Not only can blood clots kill them, they could also end their careers because pilots must undergo rigorous health tests regularly.

Southwest Airlines recently had to cancel thousands of flights. American later canceled thousands of flights. They like to claim it’s the weather. But how come the weather only affects one airline at a time? It wasn’t the weather, it was pilots (and air traffic controllers) conducting informal strikes because of the vaccine mandates. Oh, and mandates extend to large air cargo carriers like FedEx and UPS that haul freight all around the world. More supply chain disruptions if these planes aren’t flying.

Supply chain disruptions are a very big deal. The problem is pervasive. It’s not going away anytime soon because it would require undoing decades of globalization. You’re going to have to get used to it. When I say get used to it, I don’t mean tough luck. I just mean that this problem is going to continue."

"Financial Crisis Looming with Imploding Markets Worldwide"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, PM 11/10/21:
"Financial Crisis Looming with Imploding Markets Worldwide"
"The Producer Price Index is at its highest level in decades. It does not matter where you live. This is become a worldwide problem. Energy cost, food and simple necessities of going through the roof."

"Picture Yourself..."

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impassible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.”
– Strauss & Howe, “The Fourth Turning”

Gregory Mannarino, "Expect A Debt Market 'Nuclear Meltdown' To Occur, And This Is What To Look Out For"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 11/10/21:
"Expect A Debt Market 'Nuclear Meltdown' To Occur, 
And This Is What To Look Out For"

"Socialism With Chimichurri Sauce"

"Socialism With Chimichurri Sauce"
By Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "Inflation is afoot. Breitbart is on the story: “Prices rose 8.6 percent from a year ago in October, the second consecutive month of the fastest annual pace of inflation in records going back 10 years. The Department of Labor said the Producer Price Index accelerated to show a monthly gain of 0.6 percent, up one-tenth of a percentage point from the September gain. That was in line with analyst expectations.”

And the Daily Mail” reports that “meatflation” is getting serious: "…the cost of bone-in ribeye beef has nearly doubled from $8.71 per pound in November 2020 to an astounding $16.99 per pound this week, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Retail Price Report that was released on Friday – an increase of over 95 percent." The Bureau of Labor Statistics will have a price misinformation update later today. Here, we pause to reflect on what inflation actually is… and where higher rates of it are taking us.

Noxious Tax: Democracy is best described as “two wolves and one lamb voting on what to have for dinner.” But after they’ve fully digested the lamb, the wolves are still hungry. What do they do? First, they borrow. And when that source is exhausted (excess borrowing raises interest rates, which depresses the whole economy… and lowers tax receipts)… they print. Inflation is just another way to squeeze blood out of a population of turnips. It is a tax levied on consumers. It’s a particularly noxious tax, in that it distorts and damages the entire economy. And when a country relies too heavily on it, it soon becomes a god-awful mess.

Infectious Socialism: Take our favorite basket case, Argentina, for example. Runaway debt? Out-of-control inflation? Pandering to the masses? Buying votes? Corruption… incompetence… absurdity – the Argentines have been there and done that for the last 70 years.

Now, The Wall Street Journal is on the story: "Argentina’s Welfare State Warning to America." Socialist ideologues know that the welfare state is addictive. New entitlements create dependencies that, once born, demand to be fed and to grow no matter the party in power. Argentina proves the rule.

Yes, “Peronism is Argentina’s most successful export,” jokes a friend in Salta. Juan PerĂłn took a little from Mussolini… a little from Hitler… a little from Stalin. And then, he added a tango beat and chimichurri sauce. The result was a pampa variant of the socialist infection. And it has proved remarkably durable.

Patient Zero: By April 28, 1945, Mussolini was hanging from a lamppost by his feet. Two days later, Hitler was in cinders. Stalin’s Soviet Union limped along until 1991, when President Gorbachev resigned and began doing luggage commercials for Louis Vuitton.

And Peronism? General Juan PerĂłn, who ruled Argentina from 1946 through 1955, and again briefly in 1973-74, was Patient Zero. He came back from Italy in 1941, bringing the dreaded disease with him. It has run rampant through Buenos Aires’ popular neighborhoods ever since.

Survival Tool: What makes Peronism so “sticky” is that once groups acquire a taste for money that isn’t their own, they are very reluctant to give it up. Then, politicians need to keep the money coming or they can’t win an election. And since they can never tax or borrow enough to make good on all their promises (especially since they are simultaneously strangling the productive economy), they resort to the inflation tax… and blame it on greedy businessmen.

Corruption runs wild. In the courts, in the bureaucracy, in the schools, in the medical system… and in private industry, too. Nothing is on the level. Nothing works as you think it should. At first, you attribute it to “incompetence.” But the Argentines are as competent as anyone else. They just react to different incentives. And in a corrupt system, corruption – petty and great – not only pays, it is a survival tool.

Life Goes On: That’s the endearing and enlightening thing about the Argentine system. It has a kind of illicit flexibility that keeps life tolerable… even agreeable… in the midst of perpetual crisis. Coups d’Ă©tat… military governments… mass murders… widespread terrorism and kidnapping… hyperinflation… humiliating defeats and depression – Peronism has survived them all.

Even today, the inflation rate is around 50%… where it has been for several years. The U.S. dollar trades on “white,” “black,” and “blue” exchanges – at very different rates. Businesses routinely keep at least two different sets of books – one for the government and one for themselves. They trade invoices with each other to manage their tax burdens. And rich people flee to Uruguay or Florida. Still, life goes on… tolerably well, for many people. But a deeper crisis is coming. The Argentine government is broke. No one will lend it money. And if it keeps printing more money, it risks a Venezuela-style catastrophe.

Broken Status Quo: Meanwhile, an important election is coming on Thursday. The Peronists are facing a big challenge. But not necessarily a big change. As The Wall Street Journal puts it, the opposition is “not much more than a milder version of the status quo.” Alas, the status quo – now becoming familiar north of the Rio Grande, as it has been south of the Rio de la Plata for many years – is a shambles. How easy it would be, in theory, to fix it. No more free lunches. No more deficits. No more bribes. No more money-printing. But how impossible it is, in practice, to do it…"

The Daily "Near You?"

Auburndale, Florida, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Mary Oliver, "There Is Time Left"


"There Is Time Left"

 "Well, there is time left 
fields everywhere invite you into them.
And who will care, who will chide you if you wander away
from wherever you are, to look for your soul?
Quickly, then, get up, put on your coat, leave your desk!
To put ones foot into the door of the grass, which is
the mystery, which is death as well as life,
and not be afraid!
To set ones foot in the door of death,
and be overcome with amazement!"

~ Mary Oliver

The 12 Rules of Survival”

The 12 Rules of Survival”
by Laurence Gonzales

“As a journalist, I’ve been writing about accidents for more than thirty years. In the last 15 or so years, I’ve concentrated on accidents in outdoor recreation, in an effort to understand who lives, who dies, and why. To my surprise, I found an eerie uniformity in the way people survive seemingly impossible circumstances. Decades and sometimes centuries apart, separated by culture, geography, race, language, and tradition, the most successful survivors–those who practice what I call “deep survival”– go through the same patterns of thought and behavior, the same transformation and spiritual discovery, in the course of keeping themselves alive.

Not only that but it doesn’t seem to matter whether they are surviving being lost in the wilderness or battling cancer, whether they’re struggling through divorce or facing a business catastrophe– the strategies remain the same. Survival should be thought of as a journey, a vision quest of the sort that Native Americans have had as a rite of passage for thousands of years. Once you’re past the precipitating event– you’re cast away at sea or told you have cancer– you have been enrolled in one of the oldest schools in history. Here are a few things I’ve learned that can help you pass the final exam.

1. Perceive and Believe: Don’t fall into the deadly trap of denial or of immobilizing fear. Admit it: You’re really in trouble and you’re going to have to get yourself out. Many people who in the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, died simply because they told themselves that everything was going to be all right. Others panicked. Panic doesn’t necessarily mean screaming and running around. Often it means simply doing nothing. Survivors don’t candy-coat the truth, but they also don’t give in to hopelessness in the face of it. Survivors see opportunity, even good, in their situation, however grim. After the ordeal is over, people may be surprised to hear them say it was the best thing that ever happened to them.

Viktor Frankl, who spent three years in Auschwitz and other Nazi concentration camps, describes comforting a woman who was dying. She told him, “I am grateful that fate has hit me so hard. In my former life I was spoiled and did not take spiritual accomplishments seriously.” The phases of the survival journey roughly parallel the five stages of death once described by Elizabeth Kubler Ross in her book On Death and Dying: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. In dire circumstances, a survivor moves through those stages rapidly to acceptance of his situation, then resolves to do something to save himself. Survival depends on telling yourself, “Okay, I’m here. This is really happening. Now I’m going to do the next right thing to get myself out.” Whether you succeed or not ultimately becomes irrelevant. It is in acting well– even suffering well– that you give meaning to whatever life you have to live.

2. Stay Calm – Use Your Anger: In the initial crisis, survivors are not ruled by fear; instead, they make use of it. Their fear often feels like (and turns into) anger, which motivates them and makes them feel sharper. Aron Ralston, the hiker who had to cut off his hand to free himself from a stone that had trapped him in a slot canyon in Utah, initially panicked and began slamming himself over and over against the boulder that had caught his hand. But very quickly, he stopped himself, did some deep breathing, and began thinking about his options. He eventually spent five days progressing through the stages necessary to convince him of what decisive action he had to take to save his own life.

When Lance Armstrong, six-time winner of the Tour de France, awoke from brain surgery for his cancer, he first felt gratitude. “But then I felt a second wave, of anger… I was alive, and I was mad.” When friends asked him how he was doing, he responded, “I’m doing great… I like it like this. I like the odds stacked against me… I don’t know any other way.” That’s survivor thinking. Survivors also manage pain well. As a bike racer, Armstrong had had long training in enduring pain, even learning to love it. James Stockdale, a fighter pilot who was shot down in Vietnam and spent eight years in the Hanoi Hilton, as his prison camp was known, advised those who would learn to survive: “One should include a course of familiarization with pain. You have to practice hurting. There is no question about it.”

3. Think, Analyze, and Plan: Survivors quickly organize, set up routines, and institute discipline. When Lance Armstrong was diagnosed with cancer, he organized his fight against it the way he would organize his training for a race. He read everything he could about it, put himself on a training schedule, and put together a team from among friends, family, and doctors to support his efforts. Such conscious, organized effort in the face of grave danger requires a split between reason and emotion in which reason gives direction and emotion provides the power source. Survivors often report experiencing reason as an audible “voice.”

Steve Callahan, a sailor and boat designer, was rammed by a whale and sunk while on a solo voyage in 1982. Adrift in the Atlantic for 76 days in a five-and-a-half-foot raft, he experienced his survival voyage as taking place under the command of a “captain,” who gave him his orders and kept him on his water ration, even as his own mutinous (emotional) spirit complained. His captain routinely lectured “the crew.” Thus under strict control, he was able to push away thoughts that his situation was hopeless and take the necessary first steps of the survival journey: to think clearly, analyze his situation, and formulate a plan.

4. Take Correct, Decisive Action: Survivors are willing to take risks to save themselves and others. But they are simultaneously bold and cautious in what they will do. Lauren Elder was the only survivor of a light plane crash in high sierra. Stranded on a peak above 12,000 feet, one arm broken, she could see the San Joaquin Valley in California below, but a vast wilderness and sheer and icy cliffs separated her from it. Wearing a wrap-around skirt and blouse, with two-inch heeled boots and not even wearing underwear, she crawled “on all fours, doing a kind of sideways spiderwalk,” as she put it later, “balancing myself on the ice crust, punching through it with my hands and feet.” She had 36 hours of climbing ahead of her– a seemingly impossible task. But Elder allowed herself to think only as far as the next big rock. Survivors break down large jobs into small, manageable tasks. They set attainable goals and develop short-term plans to reach them. They are meticulous about doing those tasks well. Elder tested each hold before moving forward and stopped frequently to rest. They make very few mistakes. They handle what is within their power to deal with from moment to moment, hour to hour, day to day.

5. Celebrate your success: Survivors take great joy from even their smallest successes. This helps keep motivation high and prevents a lethal plunge into hopelessness. It also provides relief from the unspeakable strain of a life-threatening situation. Elder said that once she had completed her descent of the first pitch, she looked up at the impossibly steep slope and thought, “Look what you’ve done…Exhilarated, I gave a whoop that echoed down the silent pass.” Even with a broken arm, joy was Elder’s constant companion. A good survivor always tells herself: count your blessings– you’re alive. Viktor Frankl wrote of how he felt at times in Auschwitz: “How content we were; happy in spite of everything.”

6. Be a Rescuer, Not a Victim: Survivors are always doing what they do for someone else, even if that someone is thousands of miles away. There are numerous strategies for doing this. When Antoine Saint-Exupery was stranded in the Libyan desert after his mail plane suffered an engine failure, he thought of how his wife would suffer if he gave up and didn’t return. Yossi Ghinsberg, a young Israeli hiker, was lost in the Bolivian jungle for more than two weeks after becoming separated from his friends. He hallucinated a beautiful companion with whom he slept each night as he traveled. Everything he did, he did for her. People cannot survive for themselves alone; their must be a higher motive. Viktor Frankl put it this way: “Don’t aim at success– the more you aim at it and make it a target,the more you are going to miss it.” He suggests taking it as “the unintended side-effect of one’s personal dedication to a cause greater than oneself or as the by-product of one’s surrender to a person other than oneself.”

7. Enjoy the Survival Journey: It may seem counterintuitive, but even in the worst circumstances, survivors find something to enjoy, some way to play and laugh. Survival can be tedious, and waiting itself is an art. Elder found herself laughing out loud when she started to worry that someone might see up her skirt as she climbed. Even as Callahan’s boat was sinking, he stopped to laugh at himself as he clutched a knife in his teeth like a pirate while trying to get into his life raft. And Viktor Frankl ordered some of his companions in Auschwitz who were threatening to give up hope to force themselves to think of one funny thing each day. Survivors also use the intellect to stimulate, calm, and entertain the mind.

While moving across a near-vertical cliff face in Peru, Joe Simpson developed a rhythmic pattern of placing his ax, plunging his other arm into the snow face, and then making a frightening little hop with his good leg. “I meticulously repeated the pattern,” he wrote later. “I began to feel detached from everything around me.” Singing, playing mind games, reciting poetry, counting anything, and doing mathematical problems in your head can make waiting possible and even pleasant, even while heightening perception and quieting fear. Stockdale wrote, “The person who came into this experiment with reams of already memorized poetry was the bearer of great gifts.”

Lost in the Bolivian jungle, Yossi Ghinsberg reported, “When I found myself feeling hopeless, I whispered my mantra, ‘Man of action, man of action.’ I don’t know where I had gotten the phrase… I repeated it over and over: A man of action does whatever he must, isn’t afraid, and doesn’t worry.” Survivors engage their crisis almost as an athlete engages a sport. They cling to talismans. They discover the sense of flow of the expert performer, the “zone” in which emotion and thought balance each other in producing fluid action. A playful approach to a critical situation also leads to invention, and invention may lead to a new technique, strategy, or design that could save you.

8. See the Beauty: Survivors are attuned to the wonder of their world, especially in the face of mortal danger. The appreciation of beauty, the feeling of awe, opens the senses to the environment. (When you see something beautiful, your pupils actually dilate.) Debbie Kiley and four others were adrift in the Atlantic after their boat sank in a hurricane in 1982. They had no supplies, no water, and would die without rescue. Two of the crew members drank sea water and went mad. When one of them jumped overboard and was being eaten by sharks directly under their dinghy, Kiley felt as if she, too, were going mad, and told herself, “Focus on the sky, on the beauty there.”

When Saint-Exupery’s plane went down in the Libyan Desert, he was certain that he was doomed, but he carried on in this spirit: “Here we are, condemned to death, and still the certainty of dying cannot compare with the pleasure I am feeling. The joy I take from this half an orange which I am holding in my hand is one of the greatest joys I have ever known.” At no time did he stop to bemoan his fate, or if he did, it was only to laugh at himself.

9. Believe That You Will Succeed: It is at this point, following what I call “the vision,” that the survivor’s will to live becomes firmly fixed. Fear of dying falls away, and a new strength fills them with the power to go on. “During the final two days of my entrapment,” Ralston recalled, “I felt an increasing reserve of energy, even though I had run out of food and water.” Elder said, “I felt rested and filled with a peculiar energy.” And: “It was as if I had been granted an unlimited supply of energy.”

10. Surrender: Yes you might die. In fact, you will diem– we all do. But perhaps it doesn’t have to be today. Don’t let it worry you. Forget about rescue. Everything you need is inside you already. Dougal Robertson, a sailor who was cast away at sea for thirty-eight days after his boat sank, advised thinking of survival this way: “Rescue will come as a welcome interruption of… the survival voyage.” One survival psychologist calls that “resignation without giving up. It is survival by surrender.” Simpson reported, “I would probably die out there amid those boulders. The thought didn’t alarm me… the horror of dying no longer affected me.” The Tao Te Ching explains how this surrender leads to survival:

“The rhinoceros has no place to jab its horn,
The tiger has no place to fasten its claws,
Weapons have no place to admit their blades.
Now, what is the reason for this?
Because on him there are no mortal spots.”

11. Do Whatever Is Necessary: Elder down-climbed vertical ice and rock faces with no experience and no equipment. In the black of night, Callahan dove into the flooded saloon of his sinking boat, at once risking and saving his life. Aron Ralston cut off his own arm to free himself. A cancer patient allows herself to be nearly killed by chemotherapy in order to live. Survivors have a reason to live and are willing to bet everything on themselves. They have what psychologists call meta-knowledge: They know their abilities and do not over–or underestimate them. They believe that anything is possible and act accordingly.

12. Never Give Up: When Apollo 13′s oxygen tank exploded, apparently dooming the crew, Commander Jim Lovell chose to keep on transmitting whatever data he could back to mission control, even as they burned up on re-entry. Simpson, Elder, Callahan, Kiley, Stockdale, Ginsberg– were all equally determined and knew this final truth: If you’re still alive, there is always one more thing that you can do. Survivors are not easily discouraged by setbacks. They accept that the environment is constantly changing and know that they must adapt. When they fall, they pick themselves up and start the entire process over again, breaking it down into manageable bits. Survivors always have a clear reason for going on. They keep their spirits up by developing an alternate world, created from rich memories, into which they can escape. They see opportunity in adversity.

In the aftermath, survivors learn from and are grateful for the experiences that they’ve had. As Elder told me once, “I wouldn’t trade that experience for anything. And sometimes I even miss it. I miss the clarity of knowing exactly what you have to do next.” Those who would survive the hazards of our world, whether at play or in business or at war, through illness or financial calamity, will do so through a journey of transformation. But that transcendent state doesn’t miraculously appear when it is needed. It wells up from a lifetime of experiences, attitudes, and practices form one’s personality, a core from which the necessary strength is drawn. A survival experpierience is an incomparable gift: It will tell you who you really are.”
Laurence Gonzales is the author of “Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why” (W.W. Norton & Co., New York) and contributing editor for “National Geographic Adventure” magazine. The winner of numerous awards, he has written for Harper’s, Atlantic Monthly, Conde Nast Traveler, Rolling Stone, among others. He has published a dozen books, including two award-winning collections of essays, three novels, and the book-length essay, “One Zero Charlie” published by Simon & Schuster. For more, go to www.deepsurvival.com