Lutz, Florida, USA. Thanks for stopping by!
So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, September 17, 2020
"In These Downbeat Times..."
“In these downbeat times, we need as much hope and courage as we do vision and analysis; we must accent the best of each other even as we point out the vicious effects of our racial divide and pernicious consequences of our maldistribution of wealth and power. We simply cannot live in the twenty-first century at each other’s throats, even as we acknowledge the weighty forces of racism, patriarchy, economic inequality, homophobia, and ecological abuse on our necks. We are at a crucial crossroad in the history of this nation – and we either hang together by combating these forces that divide and degrade us or we hang separately. Do we have the intelligence, humor, imagination, courage, tolerance, love, respect, and will to meet the challenge? Time will tell. None of us alone can save the nation or world. But each of us can make a positive difference if we commit ourselves to do so.”
- Cornel West
Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! Expect Another Industry Wide Bailout! And Again The American People LOSE"
Gregory Mannarino,
"Alert! Expect Another Industry Wide Bailout!
And Again The American People LOSE"
"This Is Why Inflation Will Rip Everyone's Face Off"
"This Is Why Inflation Will Rip Everyone's Face Off"
by Charles Hugh Smith
"This is how market capitalism is supposed to work: consumers decide (for whatever reason) to buy more toilet paper. This increase in demand strips the shelves of TP and pushes the price up as demand exceeds supply. In response, capital flows to enterprises that ramp up production of TP to meet this new demand / scarcity of supply. Price returns to equilibrium.
Yea for our wunnerful market capitalism... but oops, this isn't what actually happens in our economy. What actually happens is less of a happy story. As correspondent A.P. explained in "Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering" (June 12, 2020), the real money in the American economy isn't made by increasing production of goods and services or making better quality products; it's made with debt that funds financial trickery like stock buy-backs.
The "business" is just the facade used to justify the corporate bonds, loans, stock buy-backs, etc. Corporate America has perfected this game, and so have Wall Street and SillyCon Valley, which produces one money-losing unicorn after another that IPOs for tens of billions of dollars, all based on the pixie dust of future profits and valuations.
Production is for losers. Financial engineering is for winners. Simply put, capital has no interest in gambling on building factories and training employees. Not only is that risky, it's a low margin endeavor, which makes it of zero interest to capital.
How many billionaires have been minted in America in the past 20 years for building anything? Billionaires become billionaires by either hijacking the human mind's receptors for attention and addiction or by selling corporate bonds and leveraging the debt to skim billions of dollars.
Not only is capital not available to boost production, neither is the expertise or labor. A great many of the people with the hands-on experience needed to build stuff and manage complex production processes have retired or will soon retire, and there isn't a second team ready to take the field.
If production is absolutely necessary, then Corporate America will have it done on the cheap overseas. Sure, the quality is terrible but the American consumer will buy without question; that's why corporations went to all the trouble of establishing a heavily moated monopoly or cartel: the consumers have either no choice or a false choice between members of a cartel offering the same lousy quality and high prices.
But Corporate America's go-to solution to everything - globalization - is running out of rope, and the cliff beckons. Corporate America's tired trick of offering a couple bucks more per hour for the opportunity to double your workload no longer works because the issue isn't the couple bucks per hour; it's that the workforce no longer has the requisite skills because our educational system and Corporate America have failed.
The Federal Reserve can conjure up trillions of dollars out of thin air to further enrich the nation's parasitic scum, but they can't print experienced, motivated workers or people with entrepreneurial skills. Corporate America gave up training its workforce a long time ago, and SillyCon Valley has perfected the art of poaching employees from competitors rather than invest in training.
As for the underpaid workforce who's supposed to do the real work - as I've noted here many times, the pandemic has given many workers an opportunity to reassess their options, and some consequential percentage (including many small business owners) have concluded that the wisest course of action is to follow Johnny Paycheck's suggestion to "Take This Job and Shove It".
The top 5% - speculators, technocrats, managers and the chattering classes - haven't grasped that America is now a variation on the old Soviet joke: The Soviet joke was we pretend to work and you pretend to pay us. In America, the joke is: we work like crazy to make you rich and you pretend to pay us.
This is why inflation will rip everyone's faces off: production will continue to stagnate no matter how many trillions the Federal Reserve prints and throws around. With capital addicted to financial engineering and the purchasing power of labor's wages in permanent decline, we're about to reap the consequences of hollowing out our real economy to benefit the most parasitic and socially useless sociopaths at the top."
"The Fed’s Latest Announcement Is Really Stupid"
"The Fed’s Latest Announcement Is Really Stupid"
By Bill Bonner
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – “It’s madness. Weep for the nation.” Our neighbor stopped by yesterday. He was talking about his nation – Argentina. But Dear Readers might want to save a tear for their own.
Running Low: The Argentines are running out of money. Real money. For them, real money is U.S. dollars. Compared to their pesos, the dollar is, well, golden. According to Bloomberg, they only have $6 billion left in storage. Not a lot when you have $323 billion in foreign debt. Of course, the gauchos have been down this road so many times, they can drive it with their eyes closed. In 2001, they set a record, defaulting on $95 billion in loans. This past May, they defaulted on $65 billion. They are now lifting the seat cushions, looking for loose change. And on Tuesday, the government here announced new measures to stop people from dumping the peso and stocking scarce U.S. dollars. But we’ll come back to that in a minute.
Out of Style: This week, we’re rummaging around in the junkyard of economic history… We looked at the jobs that have been lost… like old carburetors… and the people left behind like burnt-out mufflers. We saw “old economy” companies, too – GM, J&J, GE, P&G – like stick-shifts “on the column” that nobody knows how to use anymore.
Free Enterprise is as out-of-style as giant tail fins and heavy chrome bumpers. This morning, for example, Business Insider reports that the President thinks that neither the investors nor the managers, nor even the customers, should decide who owns a tech company. He thinks it’s up to him: "Trump said during a press conference Wednesday that he was “not prepared to sign off” on the proposed deal [between TikTok and Oracle] as he hadn’t yet been briefed, but that he wouldn’t support it if ByteDance retains a majority share."
And then, later in the day, the Big Man tossed the very last hubcap of the old jalopy over the junkyard wall. He wants to give away more fake money than the Democrats! Here’s his tweet yesterday: "Democrats are “heartless”. They don’t want to give STIMULUS PAYMENTS to people who desperately need the money [...]. Go for the much higher numbers, Republicans, it all comes back to the USA anyway (one way or another!)."
Yes, the government meddling in the economy… the Fed meddling in the markets… giveaways… money-printing – it will all blow back on the USA… but not the way the President imagines. And in the meantime, we will all get with the new program.
Really Stupid: Out with the old and in with the new! Let’s turn away from the junkyard and look at the shiny new cars across the road. While the U.S. federal government – conservatives and liberals alike – replaces the old free economy with a new model (based loosely on Soviet designs), the Federal Reserve unveils its new post-free-market financial system. The New York Times brings the latest news: "Fed Pledges Low Rates for Years, and Until Inflation Picks Up." "Federal Reserve officials expect to leave interest rates near zero for years – through at least 2023 – as they try to coax the economy back to full strength after the pandemic-induced recession, based on their September policy statement and economic projections released Wednesday."
And here, we will depart from our usual judgment-free observations to say that this is really stupid. Times change. Tastes evolve. People may well decide that they are tired of freedom… even as a goal. They don’t want to have to earn their own money… or pay for their own medical care… or choose where and how they live.
They want leaders – Big Leaders – who make decisions for them; even telling them when they can go outside! But does anyone really think 12 old jackasses on the Federal Open Market Committee can fix the most important price in finance, the price of credit, better than the free market? If so, where is the evidence? And when the Fed puts the rate near zero, doesn’t that mean that credit – money lending – has no value? Who believes that? We don’t know… but whoever it is, the person is a moron.
Poppycock: Alas, in the modern world – with its public education, Facebook, and time wasters – morons are as common as voters. So the latest Fed proclamation was greeted neither with roaring laughter nor undisguised contempt. Instead, the analysts and dreamers took it in the spirit in which it was intended – as fantasy, but a fantasy in which they were all complicit.
The New York Times offers its opinion: "Nudging price gains slightly higher would buy Fed officials more room to stimulate the economy when needed, since rates incorporate inflation. A little inflation is also thought to grease the wheels of the economy, giving employers room to pass along price increases and raise wages."
Let’s see, businesses can raise prices… and then pay their employees more, too. Is there any sentient being who cannot see what disgraceful poppycock this is? And yet, there is Fed chair Jerome Powell, out in public, and New York Times financial reporters treating him as if he weren’t retarded. Trouble is, when you build on fantasies, you end up with monstrosities.
Fantasyland: Which brings us back down to Argentina, which has been in fantasyland, off and on, ever since the Big Man himself – Juan Perón – promised to build 100,000 houses for the poor in 1945. In a matter of months, the old “conservatives” were gone. Free markets, property rights, free enterprise, and sanctity of contracts… financial independence and responsibility – all of them were suddenly out of style. Instead, the government would take care of everyone… taxing the rich, spending, controlling prices, borrowing… and finally, printing money.
And now, 75 years later, the fantasies still dominate politics… while financial policies are little more than duct tape and lies. Here’s Bloomberg: "Going forward, Argentines seeking to purchase dollars for savings will need to pay a new 35% tax on top of the previous 30% so-called solidarity tax, and they’ll still be limited to buying no more than $200 a month. The extra levy will also affect credit-card purchases in dollars."
Slow Default: But Argentines can spot thieves, even with their masks on. Within seconds of Tuesday’s announcement, there were lines in front of the black-market currency dealers, eager to trade wads of pesos for a few U.S. dollars (effectively undermining the government’s efforts to keep the dollar down). The exchange rate soared from 130 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday morning to 150 yesterday.
At least Argentina’s default is out in the open. In a few years, it will be all but forgotten. America’s default will take more time. It will be more underhanded… and much more costly. Stay tuned…"
"Market Fantasy Updates 9/17/20"
"Market Fantasy Updates 9/17/20"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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Updated live.
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Daily Update (September 16th to 17th)
Gregory Mannarino,
AM 9/17/20: “Uncertainty Hits Stocks; Critical Updates”
"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 9/17/20"
By David Leonhardt
"Trump scorns his own scientists: Robert Redfield, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told Congress that universal mask-wearing could bring the pandemic under control within a few months. Redfield also said vaccines might not be available for most Americans until the middle of 2021. Hours later, Trump rebuked Redfield, questioning the value of masks and saying a vaccine would be available to the public more quickly. Public health experts said it was the latest example of the president giving false or misleading information about the coronavirus.
Other virus news:
• The Big Ten reversed its decision to call off the football season after coming under intense pressure from coaches, players, fans and Trump.
• An experimental drug based on the antibody of a Covid-19 patient appears to be effective in treating the virus, the drug’s maker, Eli Lilly, announced. Independent experts have not yet vetted the research."
SEP 17, 2020 12:14 AM ET:
Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 29,855,300
people, according to official counts, including 6,653,236 Americans.
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SEP 17, 2020 11:04 AM: "NYC Mayor Delays Start Of School For 2nd Time; Global COVID-19 Cases Near 30 Million: Live Updates"
SEP 17, 2020 8:44 AM: "India Sees 100k Daily Cases In New Global Record; 30 Million Milestone Nears: Live Updates"
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Updated 9/17/20, 2:22AM ET
Click image for larger size.
"The Real Damage..."
“The real damage is done by those millions who want to ‘survive.’ The honest men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their little lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those who don’t like to make waves – or enemies. Those for whom freedom, honor, truth, and principles are only literature. Those who live small, mate small, die small. It’s the reductionist approach to life: if you keep it small, you’ll keep it under control. If you don’t make any noise, the bogeyman won’t find you. But it’s all an illusion, because they die too, those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what? Life is always on the edge of death; narrow streets lead to the same place as wide avenues, and a little candle burns itself out just like a flaming torch does. I choose my own way to burn.”
- Sophie Scholl
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Musical Interlude: Crosby, Stills & Nash, "Southern Cross"
Crosby, Stills & Nash, "Southern Cross"
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“Ulysses”
"There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail:
There gloom the dark, broad seas. My mariners,
Souls that have toil'd, and wrought, and thought with me -
That ever with a frolic welcome took
The thunder and the sunshine, and opposed
Free hearts, free foreheads - you and I are old;
Old age hath yet his honor and his toil;
Death closes all: but something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.
The lights begin to twinkle from the rocks:
The long day wanes: the slow moon climbs: the deep
Moans round with many voices. Come, my friends,
'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die.
It may be that the gulfs will wash us down:
It may be we shall touch the Happy Isles,
And see the great Achilles, whom we knew.
Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho'
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield."
- Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Gregory Mannarino, "Must Watch! The Fed. Has Inflated The Stock Market At The Expense Of The Economy"
Gregory Mannarino,
"Must Watch! The Fed. Has Inflated The
Stock Market At The Expense Of The Economy"
"A Great Depression For The 21st Century: 1930s Was Bad, But What We Are Facing Now Is Worse!"
"A Great Depression For The 21st Century:
1930s Was Bad, But What We Are Facing Now Is Worse!"
by Epic Economist
"Some may say the crisis we are in is "The Next Great Depression" or "The Greater Depression", but the fact is that things have gone so wrong this time around that the 1930s crisis may not even be a point of reference anymore. Back then, circumstances were way different than now, and the proportions of The Depression Of The 21st Century are so extensive that it is likely to become a point of reference on its own - an event of such singular conditions that will be used as a comparison in future financial and economic meltdowns.
As we're still in the middle of the crisis, many questions remain unanswered. We don't know how long it will last or how much worse it will get, we can't even predict with accuracy our potential of recovery, because every week has been decisive so far. For that reason, today, we are going to analyze how the current economic collapse differs from the 1930s Great Depression, and in what aspects they may share similar outcomes.
We, as a society, have gotten used to being cared for, and this generation is far removed in experience and memory from hard times. Part of this coddled behavior comes in the form of a paternalistic state, to which we developed such a strong co-dependency that now we let the state make the hard decisions we don't want to be bothered about. The state provides guarantees that are very appealing to investors and consumers, and they want to put those guarantees into proof, hoping it won't be just an empty promise.
Alternatively, in this century, the "laid back" attitude towards selloffs in the stock market is the result of the assumption that the market will be fixed and bounce back as soon as possible. Or, in case things get too serious, the Federal Reserve will always come to the rescue. The presumption that the Fed will always be there to bail out the banks and the financial markets has allowed investors to become more and more reckless. Some of these seem to be remarkably proud of themselves, because they bought stocks this past spring, and are now collecting the perks that came from the Fed’s liquidity injections into the financial markets.
We seem to have a short memory when it comes to realizing how difficult it was to get out of a very similar chaos that happened a little over a decade ago. Although the financial markets seem to have recovered more quickly this time, the economic backdrop in which it leans is collapsing further and further every day it goes by. But don't be mistaken by thinking the Fed isn't aware that everything is about to go down at any minute, because they know how dangerous the situation has become. They have already pulled out all the stops in their quest to “bring back inflation”, and are fighting an uphill battle.
Every crash on the financial system only bruises it even more and it never fully recovered, it has just been dragged along. As Kelsey Williams described in his piece "A Depression for the 21st Century", the economic collapse has many complex components that are yet to cause major turbulence in our society, and even though Wall Street projections to a rebound are optimistic, we don't have the same sort of optimism in the real economy. Or, as she summarized perfectly "We are currently in poor financial health and before we can get better, we will experience a healing crisis of immense proportion."
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Why is this nebula so complex? When a star like our Sun is dying, it will cast off its outer layers, usually into a simple overall shape. Sometimes this shape is a sphere, sometimes a double lobe, and sometimes a ring or a helix. In the case of planetary nebula NGC 5189, however, besides an overall "Z" shape (the featured image is flipped horizontally and so appears as an "S"), no such simple structure has emerged.
Click image for larger size.
To help find out why, the Earth-orbiting Hubble Space Telescope has observed NGC 5189 in great detail. Previous findings indicated the existence of multiple epochs of material outflow, including a recent one that created a bright but distorted torus running horizontally across image center. Hubble results appear consistent with a hypothesis that the dying star is part of a binary star system with a precessing symmetry axis. NGC 5189 spans about three light years and lies about 3,000 light years away toward the southern constellation of the Fly (Musca)."
"And Yet..."
“We plan our lives according to a dream that came to us in our childhood, and we find that life alters our plans. And yet, at the end, from a rare height, we also see that our dream was our fate. It’s just that providence had other ideas as to how we would get there. Destiny plans a different route, or turns the dream around, as if it were a riddle, and fulfills the dream in ways we couldn’t have expected.”
- Ben Okri
“How Far Will You Lower Yourself?”
“How Far Will You Lower Yourself?”
by Brian Maher
"Yesterday’s reckoning about mask-wearing drew a heavy - and spirited - reader response. The bulk of it denounced us viciously. We are with the devil, readers insisted. For we are dispensing falsehoods - and possibly condemning the witless dupes who heed our evil counsel to early, needless graves. And if not condemning our witless dupes to early, needless graves... possibly condemning their elder and compromised relations to early, needless graves.
Reader Greg D., for example, catalogues our trespasses in grim detail:
"1) Every doctor and medical professional wears (masks). I would hazard to say there has been a few studies confirming the needs for masks for the last 80 or so years with a modern understanding of infectious transmission. Great to see you are feeding the already biased and ignorant who will never read to the bottom of the article.
2) The primary purpose of wearing a mask is to not infect others. Even back in March the effectiveness of protecting yourself with a mask was in question. Loop back to point #1 and medical professionals not making a sick patient worse.
3) Social distancing is the primary and best control. Ah! But we have rights to run our business and kill the weak and the old."
“Entirely Bogus”: Reader Jas. M believes we are perpetuating fraudulent science. It is “entirely bogus,” he claims: "Alas, the supposedly scientific article that you have used as the basis of your thesis is entirely bogus. I, too, am always skeptical and almost always try to track information back to its source. My suspicions were instantly roused because everything that Denis Rancourt (the expert whose work we cited) has to say is contrary to science in which I am reasonably well versed. Secondly, all the many reproductions of the article via the internet are on platforms with little or no grounding in the genuine scientific community."
Just so. And perhaps Jas is correct. Yet we would add that scientific fact is not written in stone. It is rather etched in water. That is, today’s reigning scientific fact is often tomorrow’s junked scientific fiction. And those who initiate the junking are routinely denounced by the scientific establishment of the day. They are labelled frauds. Quacks. Charlatans. Zanies. Yet time validates their heresies. Do we have a Galileo on our hands in Dr. Rancourt? We do not claim to. We merely raise a point.
“How Far Will You Lower Yourself to Promote a False Premise?” Another reader - Len A. - says we debase ourself by hawking a false premise: "How far will you lower yourself to promote a false premise? Masks are not worn to protect YOU, they protect OTHERS from your aerosol particles – NOT the germs themselves."
In response to Len’s question, we are pleased to report: We rather enjoy life down here in the gutter. It gives us a fresh - if somewhat foul - perspective on events. Yet the good Dr. Rancourt disagrees with Len: "There is no evidence that masks are of any utility either preventing the aerosol particles from coming out or from going in. You’re not helping the people around you by wearing a mask, and you’re not helping yourself preventing the disease by wearing a mask."
What About Medical Masks? But “if wearing masks are worthless,” asks Jim H., “then why do medical professionals all wear them when treating Covid patients?” Rancourt allows that masks limit the spread of virus-soaked droplets. Yet he argues that these droplets are not the primary means of transmission. Transmission results primarily from the aerosol particles that pass through masks… as minnows pass through shark nets.
But what about those custom N95 masks? Do they not seal the netting? Not especially, argues our heretic. They may even damage the wearer: "In one of the randomized control trials, a big one that compared masks and N95 respirators among health care workers, the only statistically significant outcome they discovered and reported on was that the health care workers who wore the N95 respirators were much more likely to suffer from headaches."
Not All Feedback Was Negative: Again, we claim no medical expertise. And the consensus view may be the correct view. Mask-wearing may indeed meet its advertising. Yet we are given to jabbing holes in consensus views… and probing for weaknesses within the citadel walls. Perhaps we have located one. Perhaps not.
Not all reader mail was critical, we must note. Take, for example, Grant A.: "As a Ph.D. research scientist in biomedical engineering, all I can say is: bravo! You (and Dr. Rancourt) are a breath of fresh air, standing against the propaganda/outright lies that fuel the draconian measures taken against us poor serfs. Masks do little (if anything) against viruses. Period. The powers that be don't like this "inconvenient truth," but the scientific literature is clear. History bears witness to it. Our current "pandemic" bears witness to it… Keep up the good fight. Keep waking people up."
Sometimes Right, Sometimes Wrong, Always in Doubt: Some days we are haunted by the fear that we are sending people to sleep... rather than waking them up. And we claim no special enlightenment to do the waking. As writes our co-founder Bill Bonner: "Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always in doubt – we try on ideas like a grown man trying on a pair of shorts. We want to see how they look before we buy them. We leave it to you to decide for yourself which of the following ideas look most ridiculous."
As we wrote last December: "For 20 years The Daily Reckoning has stood athwart, watching the scenery roll by. From Y2K to bitcoin…
From the 2000–2001 dot-com derangement to the 2008 near-nightmare to the 2020 nightmare…
From United States presidents 42–45…
From Federal Reserve chairmen 13–16…
The Daily Reckoning has suffered through them all.
Yet it has endured them with a wry, smirking detachment - even a tinge of sympathy for the cads, rogues, grifters, chiselers, scoundrels and rascals who hagride and afflict us."
Who Will Cast the First Stone? This world may be hopelessly and incurably botched. It may be sinful that it is this way. It may be against God that it is this way. Yet it is this way. And let the sinless one heave the first stone. This publication holds out no solutions to the sorrows of this world.
As H.L. Mencken styled it, we are entirely devoid of messianic passion. We hear no voice from the burning bush. And what we write one day is dead the next. We simply attempt to make sense of it all. If we can help you profit along the way, so much the better. That is our central mission, in fact. Do we often fail? Yes, we do. We often chase phantoms… and barrel down alleyways leading to ends that are dead.
A Man Enthroned: But what spectacle it all provides, what theater, what circus - what comedy. And we have the best kind of time looking on from the front row. Well and truly, a man in our seat is a man enthroned. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always in doubt… We would not climb out of it for all the teas of China... or all the perfumes of Arabia..."
"Do You Believe..."
“Do you believe,” said Candide, ‘that men have always massacred each other as they do today, that they have always been liars, cheats, traitors, ingrates, brigands, idiots, thieves, scoundrels, gluttons, drunkards, misers, envious, ambitious, bloody-minded, calumniators, debauchees, fanatics, hypocrites, and fools?”
“Do you believe,” said Martin, “that hawks have always eaten pigeons when they have found them?”
- Voltaire
"Six Reasons Why the Wrong Party Will Win the Most Important US Election Since 1860"
"Six Reasons Why the Wrong Party Will
Win the Most Important US Election Since 1860"
by Doug Casey
"The upcoming election may be the most important in US history. At least as important as that of 1860, which led directly to the War Between the States. In 2016 I believed Trump would win and placed a money bet on him. This time I'm not so sure, despite Trump's "incumbent advantage" and the fact the Democrats could hardly have picked two worse candidates. I see at least six reasons why this is true, namely:
• The Virus
• The economy
• Demographics
• Moral collapse of the old order
• The Deep State
• Cheating
The consequences of a Democrat victory will be momentous. Let's look at why it's likely.
1. The Virus: Despite the fact COVID is only marginally more deadly than the annual flu, and the fact it's only a danger to the very old (median death age 80), the hysteria around it is changing the nature of life itself. It's proven much less serious than the Asian flu of the late '60s or the Hong Kong flu of the late '50s. And not even remotely comparable to the Spanish flu of 1918-19. None of those had any discernable effect on the economy or politics. COVID is a trivial medical event but has created a gigantic psychological hysteria.
The virus hysteria is, however, a disaster from Trump's point of view for several reasons. None of them have anything to do with his "handling" of the virus—apart from the fact that medical issues should be a matter between a patient and his doctor, not bureaucrats and politicians.
First, the virus hysteria is severely limiting the number and size of Trump's rallies, which he relies on to keep enthusiasm up.
Second, more people are staying at home and watching television than ever before. However, unless they glue their dial to Fox, they'll gravitate towards the mainstream media, which is stridently anti-Trump. People who are on the fence (and most voters are always in the wishy-washy middle) will mostly hear authoritative-sounding anti-Trump talking heads on television, and they'll be influenced away from Trump.
Third, older people have by far the heaviest voter turnout, but roughly 80% of the casualties of the virus are elderly. And over 90% of those deaths are related to some other condition. Be that as it may, fear will make older people less likely to vote in this election. The COVID hysteria will still be with us in November. Older people tend to be culturally conservative and are most likely Trumpers.
Fourth, in today's highly politicized world, the government is supposed to be in charge of everything. Despite the fact there are thousands of viruses, and they've been with us thousands of years, this one is blamed on the current government. Boobus americanus will tend to vote accordingly.
2. The Economy: Keeping his voters at home is one thing. But the effects the hysteria is having on the economy are even more important. The effect of COVID on the economy should be trivial since only a small fraction of the relatively few Covid deaths are among people who are economically active.
Presidents always take credit when the economy is good and are berated when it's bad on their watch, regardless of whether they had anything to do with it. If the economy is still bad in November—and I'll wager it's going to be much worse, despite the Fed creating trillions of new dollars, and the government handouts—many people will reflexively vote against Trump.
In February, before the lockdown, there were about 3.2 million people collecting unemployment. Now, there are about 30 million. So it seems we have over 30 million working-age people who are . . . displaced. That doesn't count part-time workers, who aren't eligible for unemployment but are no longer working.
The supplementary benefits have ended. If they return, it will be at lower levels. The artificial good times brought on by free money will end too. It will be blamed on the Republicans. Worse, the public has come to the conclusion that a guaranteed annual income works. This virus hysteria has provided a kind of test for both Universal Basic Income and Modern Monetary Theory - helicopter money. So far, anyway, it seems you really can get something for nothing.
An important note here: Trump - whatever his virtues - is an economic ignoramus. He's supported both helicopter money and artificially low-interest rates since he's been in office. But especially now, because he knows it's all over if today's financial house of cards collapses on his watch.
I'll wager that, out of the 160 million work-force Americans, 30 million will still be out of work by voting day. The recognition that the country is in a depression will sink in. The virus hysteria was just the pin - or sledgehammer, perhaps - that broke the bubble. But that's another story. What's for sure is that the average American will look for somebody to blame. As things get seriously bad, people will want to change the system itself, as was true in the 1930s.
The only economic bright spot for Trump is the stock market. But it's at bubble levels. Not because the economy is doing well, but because of the avalanche of money being printed. Where it is in November is a question of how much more money the Fed will print, and how much of it flows into the stock market. Even then, there's an excellent chance it could collapse between now and the election.
For reasons I've detailed in the past, the economy is now entering the trailing edge of a gigantic financial and economic hurricane. The Greater Depression will be much different, longer-lasting, and nastier than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946. And people vote their pocketbook. Bill Clinton was right when he said, "It's the economy, stupid." If stocks fall, it will compound this effect. A high stock market just gives the illusion of prosperity. And, at least while stocks are up, contributes to the atmosphere of class warfare. Poor people don't own stocks.
3. Demographics: Since the gigantic political, economic, and social crisis we're in will be even more obvious come November, people will want a radical change. Since that - plus lots of free stuff - is what the Democrats are promising, they're likely to win. But there are other factors.
The last election was close enough, but now, four years later, there are four more cohorts of kids that have gone through high school and college and have been indoctrinated by their uniformly left-wing teachers. They're going to vote Democrat overwhelmingly.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), and people like her, are both the current reality and the future of the Democratic Party - and of the US itself. She knows how to capitalize on envy and resentment. The Black Lives Matter and Antifa movements have added the flavor of a race war to the mix. Racial antagonism will become more pronounced as whites lose their majority status over the next 30 years.
Nobody, except for a few libertarians and conservatives, is countering the purposefully destructive ideas AOC represents. But they have a very limited audience and not much of a platform. Arguing for sound money and limited government makes them seem like Old Testament prophets to Millenials. Collectivism and statism are overwhelming the values of individualism and liberty.
It's exactly the type of thing the Founders tried to guard against by restricting the vote to property owners over 21, going through the Electoral College. Now, welfare recipients who are only 18 can vote, and the Electoral College is toothless.
For the last couple of generations, everybody who's gone to college has been indoctrinated with leftist ideas. Almost all of the professors hold these ideas - as well as high school and grade school instructors. They place an intellectual patina on top of emotional, fantasy-driven leftist ideas.
When the economy collapses in earnest, everybody will blame capitalism. Because Trump is rich, he's incorrectly associated with capitalism. The country - especially the young, the poor, and the non-white - will look to the government to "do something." They see the government as a cornucopia.
A majority of Millennials are in favor of socialism, as are so-called People of Color. By 2050, whites will be a minority in the US. A straw in the wind is that a large majority of the people who commit suicide each year are middle-class white males - essentially, Trump supporters. The demographic handwriting is on the wall. Trump's election in 2016 was an anomaly. No more than a Last Hurrah.
4. Moral Collapse: There's now a lot of antagonism toward both free minds and free markets. A majority of Americans appear to actually support BLM, an openly Marxist movement. Forget about free minds - someone might be offended, and you'll be pilloried by the mob. Forget about free markets - they're blamed for all the economic problems, even though it's the lack of them that caused the problem. The idea of capitalism is now considered undefendable.
Widespread dissatisfaction with the system is obviously bad for the Republicans and good for the Democrats, who promote themselves as the party of change. It used to be pretty simple - the Republicans and the Democrats were just two sides of the same coin, like Tweedledee and Tweedledum. Traditionally, one promoted the warfare state more, the other the welfare state. But it was mostly rhetoric; they were pretty collegial. Now, both the welfare and the warfare state have been accepted as part of the cosmic firmament by both parties. The difference between them is now about cultural issues. Except that polite disagreement has turned into visceral hatred.
The Dems at least stand for some ideas - although they're all bad ideas. The Republicans have never stood for any principles; they just said the Dems wanted too much socialism, too fast, which is why they were always perceived - correctly - as hypocrites. Antagonism between the right and the left is no longer political or economic - it's cultural. That's much more serious.
Look at the 20 Democratic candidates that were in the primary debates last summer. They were all radical collectivists, dedicated statists. The Republicans were all - with one exception - mealy-mouthed nonentities.
Unlike Trump and the Reps, the Dems actually have a core of philosophical beliefs - and that counts during chaos. It doesn't matter that they're irrational or evil. People want to believe in something. The Dems give them a secular religion that promises a better world. The Reps only represent the withering status quo - which is not very appealing.
There's no political salvation coming from the Republican party. Like Trump himself, it doesn't have any core principles. It just reacts to the Dems and proposes similar, but less radical alternatives to their ideas. It doesn't stand for anything. It's only capable of putting forward empty suits, pure establishment figures like Bob Dole, Mitt Romney, or Bush. Or a nobody like Pence. That's a formula for disaster in today's demographic and cultural environment.
Incidentally, I'm not a fan of Trump, per se. He's an opportunist who flies by the seat of his pants. He's essentially an American Peron, whose economic policies are disjointed and inconsistent. His foreign policies are dangerous, provoking the Iranians and the Russians and starting a cold war with China that could easily spin out of control and turn into a major hot war.
But on the bright side, he's a cultural conservative. And that's why people support him. He wants to see the US return to the golden days of yesteryear, the world of "Leave it to Beaver", "Ozzie, and Harriet", and "Father Knows Best. We'd all like to see domestic tranquility and rising prosperity. But that's not the world we're going to be living in, not just for 2020, but the whole decade.
For years, I've joked that I planned on watching riots on my widescreen from a secure location, not out my front window. Things have now become so predictable that when I turn on the news, I kill the audio and just put the Stone's "Street Fighting Man" on a continuous loop.
Anyway, conservatives are completely demoralized. They're grasping at cultural and moral straws from a bygone era. It's impossible to defend being a white person anymore; propaganda has made it shameful to be white. If you object to the race-baiters, you'll be shouted down in the media - especially by white "liberals." Everything you grew up with and thought was part of the cosmic firmament is being washed away as unworthy.
As an example, recently, in Stone Mountain, Georgia, 1,000 uniformed, armed black men went out of their way to say that they were looking for a fight. "Where are the rednecks that want to fight with us?" It would have been out of the question at any time in the past, but no rednecks showed up to the party. That's partially because they've been psychologically cowed, and partially because they recognize that if they did when law enforcement arrived, they'd be the ones that were prosecuted, not the black men.
It's a complete inversion of what would have been the case only a generation ago. Then the blacks would have been too psychologically cowed to turn up for a fight, and the legal system would have railroaded them. Just to be clear, I'm opposed to any kind of identity politics, regardless of the group. The point is that there's been a sea change in mass psychology.
The demoralization of the ancien regime is why the destroyers of scores of statues of national heroes, from Columbus on down, are not being prosecuted. Nor do any citizens come out to oppose them. It's a matter of psychology. Whites and conservatives no longer believe in themselves. When that's true, it's game over. Yes, I know it's not true of all of them - but I believe it's a fair generalization.
This was spelled out very presciently by late Soviet defector Yuri Bezmenov, a KGB agent who fled to Canada in 1970. Bezmenov stated in the mid-1980s that there were four stages of collapse: Demoralization, Destabilization, Crisis, and Normalization. Demoralization takes decades. Bezemov said in 1985 that the process of demoralization - an undermining of a target nation's values that makes it ripe for revolutionary takeover - was "basically completed already" in the United States. Destabilization, which we've seen, especially since the crisis of 2008, is now reaching a climax. I believe a Crisis that changes everything is coming in November.
5. The Deep State: The president is important. But the fact of the matter is that the Deep State - which is to say the top senators and congressmen, heads of the Praetorian agencies, generals, top corporate guys, top academic guys, top media people - really runs the country. Since the Deep State supports Biden and despises Trump, they'll do everything in their power to defeat him. You've seen this with numerous commercials that don't sell products so much as promote Woke and SJW ideology. Almost all corporations, universities, sports franchises, and media now make diversity hiring and social activism high priorities.
The 2016 election took them by surprise; they didn't think it was possible. This time they're going to be organized, and the Deep State is going to be working actively against Trump's reelection. Whether it's through active "de-platforming" by Google, Twitter, and Facebook, or the more subtle influence of how they present things, this time, they're going all out to derail Trump. They have immense power and can use it in many ways.
They didn't do much in 2016 because it hardly seemed worth the trouble; the election was thought to be in the bag for Hillary. This time it's going to be different.
6. Cheating: The first five factors are important; they represent megatrends, tidal size influences. But let's be candid. This election is going to hinge on who cheats the best. And the Democrats have, over the years, developed far greater expertise in cheating than the Republicans. I grew up in Chicago, and it was a joke even then. Saul Alinsky's "Rules for Radicals" wasn't written for the kind of people who vote Republican.
For one thing, there's now an emphasis on mail-in votes, which makes it easier to cheat. You can register dead people as voters. You can register your dog as a voter. You could probably register 50 million Nigerian princes and get away with it. If the fraud is ever even discovered, it won't be until long after the election. Which means it's likely to be a contested election long after Nov 3rd.
That's only part of it, though. A high percentage of voting machines are computerized. Fraud by hacking voting machines is apparently easy to do - and it's pretty untraceable. It's just a matter of planning and boldness.
One of the consequences of these widely acknowledged dysfunctions is to delegitimize the whole idea of voting. That's possibly not a bad thing. Mass democracy inevitably degrades into a system where the poorer citizens vote themselves benefits at the expense of the middle class. Basically, mass democracy is mob rule dressed in a coat and tie. But if the populace loses faith in "democracy" during a serious economic crisis - like this one - they're going to look for a strong man to straighten things out. The US will look more and more like Argentina. Or worse.
Remember what Stalin said: "Who votes doesn't count. What counts is who counts the votes."
But what about the idea of democracy itself? What does it matter the US starts to resemble a Third World country if that's the will of the people? I've got to say that I don't believe in democracy as a method of government. I understand how shocking that is to hear. Let me explain.
There's something to be said for a few people who share traditions and culture and generally agree on how the world works, voting on who will speak for them when it's appropriate. That's one thing - and it can make sense. But it's very different from a gigantic agglomeration of very different, even antagonistic, people fighting for control and power.
Winston Churchill said two things about democracy that are apposite. One is that "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others." I would argue that's simply not true. The alternatives are worth discussing. The other thing that he said was, "The best argument against Democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." He's absolutely right in that quip.
Getting back to cheating: Will foreign interference in US elections be part of the cheating? Kind of. There already are millions of foreign citizens - illegal aliens orchestrated by the left - interfering directly in the outcome by voting. That's much more of a change than some random Russians making political comments on Facebook allegedly during 2016. Although the Russian thing isn't even a tempest in a toilet bowl. So what if some Russian kids played around on their computers to see what they could do? It was totally trivial and meaningless.
In a way, it just proves the old saying, turnabout is fair play. For many years, the US government has cultivated regime change in foreign countries by interfering very overtly in their elections. Why should Americans act surprised if it happens in the US?
A Counter Argument: What are the chances Trump could win, despite the six points I've just mentioned? There are two factors I can think of.
One is that the Dems may have overplayed their hand by first supporting, and now not denouncing the "mostly peaceful protest" (aka, riots), Defund the Police, Black Lives Matter, Antifa, and the like. People can approve or not - but they don't want to be scared or have their lives disrupted. It may send the silent majority to the Republicans.
Second is the immense enthusiasm of Trump's supporters. When he goes somewhere, they disrupt their lives and line-up, waiting for hours to get into the venue. It seems Biden and Harris can barely fill a coffee shop. Millions of middle Americans support Trump as if their lives depended on it. And in a way, they do.
If Trump loses the election - or more exactly, if the Democrats win - it is, in fact, going to change the nature of the US drastically and permanently. Unfortunately, that's going to be the case even if Trump wins. Next week I'll follow up with what's going to happen after the election. Stay tuned."
"It's Time To Get The Story Right: If We Don't, Things Will Only Get Worse"
"It's Time To Get The Story Right: If We Don't, Things Will Only Get Worse"
by Chris Martenson
"After 8 months of reporting only on the coronavirus pandemic, it's high time to zoom out and look at the other major trends that will shape the next several decades of our lives, as many of them will have just as much impact -- or more -- than covid-19. In this video, Chris makes the argument for pursuing *resilience* vs growth -- both in our individual lives as well as a society.
The blind pursuit of ever more "growth" is not only mathematically illogical, but it's destroying our future as a species. We need to find better ways to live within our economic, energetic and ecological means. The good news is there are many, many great models that exist today for doing so. We just need to decide to embrace them, and discard the current ones that aren't serving our interests."
"The World Left Behind"
By Bill Bonner
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – “Perpetual recession…?” asks a Reuters headline this morning. Most likely, is our guess. Already, before COVID-19 arrived, U.S. GDP growth rates were the lowest ever recorded. At only 1.8% per year, the U.S. economy limped and staggered – barely making any headway. And now, with $78 trillion of debt… a public that has been warned not to leave home… and a $4 trillion budget deficit – we’ll be lucky to have any growth at all.
Lost Jobs: What will we find, after more than half a year of quarantine in the Calchaquí Valley, when we finally get back to America? A world without growth? What if the world we knew has been left behind… abandoned… forgotten, like an old car in a junkyard? Yesterday, we looked at some of the used auto parts left scattered on the ground.
Waiters. Pilots. Truck drivers. Shop clerks. Whole categories of workers might be out of work for a long time – or forever. The 2008-2009 mortgage finance crisis put 8 million people out of work. It took five years to get those jobs back.
Today, there are still 11 million Americans without jobs (according to Reuters… CNBC says there are 30 million collecting unemployment compensation). (These "official" numbers are massively understated. - CP) If the economy were to re-absorb these people at the same rate it did after the last crisis, it would take (best case) until 2027 to get back to February’s job levels… or, if we go with CNBC’s figures, to 2038.
Gone Forever: But if the economy really is sinking into Perpetual Recession… they will never get their jobs back. Airlines, restaurants, hotels, cruise lines, universities, hospitals, commercial property owners and developers – all will cut staff numbers as the customers disappear.
Then, too, employers will shift their focus to computers and robots to replace employees. Why? The electronics don’t get sick. They don’t sue. They are not disease “vectors.” And they don’t care about “diversity,” “equality,” or “white privilege.”
Why hire another bank teller if people can be forced (for health reasons, of course!) to use a computer terminal? Why bother with the expense of a physical bank at all? Why hire a truck driver… when a self-driving truck should be coming down the road any day now? What’s a parking lot attendant supposed to do when nobody comes into town?
More, More, More: But jobs are not the only things being left behind. Small governments, balanced budgets, sound money, free enterprise – all have been covered in vines. A majority of Americans, from both political parties, now favors more government spending, more bailouts, more giveaways, and more meddling with trade, industry, and commerce. As for the Fed’s fake dollars – they just want more of them.
Even Senator Ted Cruz, supposedly a “conservative Republican,” now probably speaks for the whole new breed. He wants central planning, where the government – not investors – decides which technology gets vital capital. Next, maybe he’ll announce a “five-year plan” and a “Great Leap Forward.”
Old Economy Industries: The big, “Old Economy” industries are also being left behind. GE, GM, P&G, J&J – these companies make up the backbone of the Dow Industrials. But they’ve been adding debt and losing ground for 20 years. In real-money terms… that is, in terms of gold… they’ve lost two-thirds of their value. Our bet is that those losses will get worse.
Real Money: As colleague Tom Dyson explains in his "Postcards from the Fringe", the Dow tends to move in big, long swings… as measured in gold. It registered a low – under 2 ounces of gold for the entire 30 Dow stocks – in 1980. And then it hit a high of over 40 (ounces of gold to buy the Dow) 20 years later. Right now, it’s trending down (it’s currently at around 14)… and most likely, it will go below 5 again – probably soon.
We measure in gold because it is real money. It represents the things real money can buy – goods and services. The Federal Reserve can’t “print” gold. So, prices of other things – cars, houses, lawn care, TVs, and even college – tend to be more stable in gold terms than in U.S. dollars. A semester at an in-state public college in 1970, for example, cost about $350. Today, it’s around $10,000. Up 28 times. But in gold terms, it went down, from 10 ounces (an ounce of gold in 1970 cost in the region of $35) to only 5 ounces (at gold’s current price of almost $2,000 per ounce).
Dollar Disaster: But this brings us to the most important thing of all that will be left behind – the U.S. dollar. As you can see from the example above, the dollar has been a bad form of money for many, many years. Had you simply kept your money in gold, the cost of college would have been cut in half. Instead, in dollar terms, it went up 28 times.
Or look at the wheels of the working man. A Ford F-150 cost about $2,500 in 1970. Now, it’s $28,000. But in gold terms, it went down from 71 ounces… to only about one-fifth of that – 14 ounces. In other words, with the same real money – the same ounces of gold – you could have bought five new F-150s.
The dollar has lost ground. And it’s bound to lose a lot more. For 30 years, the Federal Reserve has been committed to supporting Wall Street. Now, it is supporting Main Street, too. And with what? Not with gold. And not with bitcoin. With dollars… money that will be left in the junkyard. More to come…"
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