"OPEC Fractures, the Draft Returns,
and the Age of Consequences Begins"
by Chris MacIntosh
"Lookie here… The United Arab Emirates recently announced it would quit OPEC after nearly six decades, striking a major blow to the oil cartel and to Saudi Arabia, its unofficial leader. Let’s be clear, the UAE didn’t leave OPEC. They were bought out. You may recall that this event was preceded by two major developments that tell the actual story. The first was the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). This bled UAE finances and continues to do so. It creates not only a loss of revenue but a shortage of dollars with oil being sold for dollars.
This is why the US provided the UAE with dollar swap lines. The UAE is also highly dependent on the US military not abandoning them. They already realize that has happened to some degree. But looking around their neighborhood, they know they have no friends and so cling to whatever is left of US security promises.
The market immediately saw this as a step towards more production, since the UAE would no longer be constrained by OPEC’s agreed quotas, but the reality is that productive capacity has been destroyed (refineries bombed, wells capped).
What’s important to think about is that swap lines are nothing more than a credit card, and debt is the ultimate tool of slavery. From America’s perspective, Bessent is using these for a couple of reasons. First, as the Gulf states face financial difficulties there is a risk they begin selling assets. Those assets are, of course, US Treasury bonds. That’s not good, especially as the US needs to continue financing the wars. The second reason is to stop CNY settlement from scaling.
Swap lines give allies dollar liquidity, reducing their incentive to price oil or trade in CNY. Personally, I think it’s a bad deal. The Emirates just traded 60 years of sovereignty to become a debt slave. Every country that ties its survival to American goodwill learns the same lesson eventually: the US doesn’t have allies, it has interests. And when those interests shift, you’re fresh outta luck. This move doesn’t strengthen them. It neuters them…
Ultimately, the war is being fought not only in the Middle East but in central bank boardrooms. What we’re seeing is a world forming where there will be multiple currency blocs and settlement structures. In a world where currency, settlement, and banking rails are all being weaponised, this is definitely a time to own precious metals.
Promised and Now Delivered: It gives me no pleasure pointing out things we’ve discussed at length in these pages over the last few years, only to have them come to fruition. We’re as happy as the next guy making money, but when it comes to things like war, I’m frustrated and upset. Making money on such outcomes sucks, even though we’re not funding the conflict (we would be if we were investing in defense stocks, I suppose).
The inevitability of war we’ve been discussing still doesn’t make it necessary or just. Still, realism is what we must invest with.Which brings me to one of the promises we’ve been making for some years now - that the probability of conscription was high across the board. When we first began mentioning it, the pushback was: "Oh no, have you seen the youth of today? They’re far too flaccid and weak and lazy. They’ll never go along with that." We argued that none of that would matter. And here we are…
Eligible men will be automatically added to the military draft database by December, replacing much of the old self-registration process in an effort to cut costs and make the system more efficient. The Selective Service System, the agency responsible for keeping records of men who could be called up during a national emergency, filed a proposed rule with the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on March 30. Most men between the ages of 18 and 25 are already required to register with the Selective Service, but automatic registration was mandated in December 2025 as part of the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act.
This of course follows on from our sauerkraut-eating friends and the war-mongering sycophants who are in positions of power in Germany.Given the collapse in public opinion of all of the pointy shoes, my sincere hope is that when the inevitable happens and men are called to war to "defend freedom" (or whatever other claptrap they conjure up) the revolt will be broad. I do actually think it’ll happen. This is also how the US gets itself into a civil conflict. It’s potentially how the EU fractures and the "Union" collapses. It couldn’t come soon enough.
Either way, we’re living in the age of consequences. The consequences of debt accumulation and the degradation of trust in government and large corporate institutions lead me to believe that the most probable outcome is for the existing divide in the US to harden under war conditions. And, just as we have "sanctuary cities" for migrants, we’re likely to get "sanctuary states" regarding the military draft. That will lead the feds to take action, and things get spicy.
Either way, all of this - should it happen - will be highly stagflationary and benefit our current portfolios. So there’s some cheer for you in the misery. See, we’re not all grumpy buggers.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC is not just about oil. It is another warning sign that the old monetary, political, and security arrangements are breaking down - and that governments are preparing for a world of currency blocs, debt traps, resource shocks, and expanding military demands. That has serious implications for your money, your freedom, and how you prepare."
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