Former US President Richard Nixon,
after his resignation in August of 1974.
"Doing the Nixon"
by Bill Bonner
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Baltimore, Maryland - "Like prisoners on death row, investors spend most of their time waiting for something to happen. One day, a headline tells us that a deal is close...and oil goes down. Bloomberg: "Oil and Gas Plunge on Hormuz Opening, Hope for End of War." The next day, oil gushes up...as hopes for a deal fade. The Guardian: "Oil prices rise and markets fall after US seizure of ship hits Iran peace deal hopes." But unless you’ve got an inside track to the White House...BBC: "$580M oil trades made minutes before Trump’s key Iran announcement draw scrutiny."
You’re more likely to make big money by getting ‘on the right side of history,’ and staying there, than you are by speculating on policy changes. Today, we guess about where the ‘right side of history’ really is.
Right now, investors are waiting for some kind of resolution to the US/Israeli attack on Iran. Flush from the easy-peasy capture of Venezuela’s president, the kidnappers figured they could follow up in Iran. All they had to do, as another famous leader said of invading the Soviet Union 85 years before, was to ‘kick in the door and the whole house’ would come falling down.
The Trump administration made a ‘mistake,’ say the pundits. They kicked in the door - assassinating Iran’s leadership, not just the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, but his daughter, son-in-law, granddaughter, daughter-in-law and about forty of the nation’s military and civilian leaders. But the roof still stood. And the walls. And the people left alive inside did just what you might expect; they fought back.
Out-gunned...out-spent...out-classed - like the Soviet Union, Iran nevertheless had an ace up its sleeve. In Russia, vast distances, poor roads, and bad weather were the Soviets’ best allies. Iran’s BFF, meanwhile, is a narrow passage between the Saudi peninsula and the Eurasian mainland. Iranian gunners can hide in caves and declivities and knock out ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
So, what was supposed to be short and sweet - Operation Epic Fury - went FUBAR. Allies edged away from the US. (The Financial Times: European Right is Pivoting Away from America). America’s financial picture darkened. (”I am certain we will spend $1 trillion for the Iran war,” says Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Kennedy School). The price of the world’s most vital single commodity - oil - rose 50%. (Average gasoline price is now over $4.)
And Iran remains much as it was before. More importantly, for POTUS...his polling numbers fell. The top priority of the Iranian leaders is survival. They suspect that the US would kill them if it is given the chance.
The top priority for Donald Trump, meanwhile, is the survival of Republican control of Congress. Otherwise, he will be impeached....his hopes for a Nobel Prize, or even a Medal of Honor, erased...his name taken from public buildings...his picture removed from recruiting offices...plans for a Triumphal Arch scrapped...and many of his friends and family put on trial for corruption.
At this stage, Republicans are probably making a mistake. The longer Trump stays in the captain’s chair...and the crazier and more inept he appears...the more likely the democrats are to win elections - both this year...and in ‘28. Wise Democrats might not want to ‘25th amendment his ass’ after all. We’re not offering political advice here, but a wise Trump, meanwhile, might welcome regime change and take a dive. Like Richard Nixon, he would step down - for health reasons - leaving Vance to take over, in exchange for a pardon.
For every action there is a reaction, and our guess is that the nation is weary of the Big Man’s bombast. A return to sober, sane ordinariness – even if it is mostly fraudulent - might give Republicans a fair shot of staying in power for ten more years...spare Trump from retribution…and allow the decline of the empire to continue, but at a slower, more dignified pace. Tomorrow, we will look at the alternative - how Democrats might come back...with a vengeance."
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