Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 11/7/26
"Alert! BBC 'Blacksky' Emergency Broadcast System,
Pentagon Builds New Nuclear Weapons"
Comments here:
So, we rise from the rubble...
StatCounter
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Adventures With Danno, 'This Is Not Over, Keep Gas Tanks Full"
Adventures With Danno, 11/7/26
'This Is Not Over, Keep Gas Tanks Full"
Comments here:
"Snyder Reports, 11/7/26"
Full screen recommended.
Snyder Reports, 11/7/26
"Nobody Is Ready for This Polar Vortex Shift:
Prepare Now Before Temps Drop"
"Polar Vortex disrupted at the earliest point on record - what happens next for winter in the United States? Super El Nino is building while the stratosphere shifts, and temperature forecasts for the Lower 48 could flip fast. Here's what it means for you and how to prepare now. In this update, I break down what the polar vortex is, why meteorologists say this earliest disruption matters, why models show above average temperatures for now, and why that can change in weeks as Arctic air spills southward. You'll also get the practical preparedness checklist - grid, fuel, food, heat, blankets, window insulation, gloves and thermal socks - so you're not waiting until mainstream media warnings hit. This is not a snow forecast for today or tomorrow. It's an early heads-up on how El Nino, stratospheric warming, and jet stream changes could impact winter weather, cold outbreaks, and your personal finances and safety through December."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Snyder Reports, 11/7/26
"57% Are Cutting Portions As Food Costs Soar:
Are You Eating Less Too?"
"Americans are spending $150+ more per month on groceries - and now 50% are skipping meals and 57% are cutting portions to cope. In this video we break down the new survey on smaller portions and fewer vegetables, why 80% of shoppers say eating healthy is getting harder, the Walmart short-weight lawsuit over 16oz bags weighing 12oz, and why carrots hitting $3.49 has shoppers cutting vegetables entirely. Plus what it means for you and your food budget. Are you buying smaller portions or cutting vegetables to save money? Let me know in the comments."
Comments here:
"A 1968 Musical Interlude: Mason Williams, “Classical Gas”; Paul Mauriat, "Love Is Blue"
Mason Williams, “Classical Gas”
o
Full screen recommended.
Paul Mauriat, "Love Is Blue"
"A Look to the Heavens"
“The southern Milky Way appears spectacular in this composite image taken from Mangaia, the most southerly of the Cook Islands. Few sources of light pollution exist here, home to only 500 people.
The two bright stars at the Milky Way’s center are Alpha (left) and Beta Centauri. They point to Crux the Southern Cross. Near the horizon, two of the satellite galaxies of our Milky Way, the Small (left) and Large Magellanic Clouds are easy to spot.”
"Alas..."
“Alas, regardless of their doom, the little victims play!
No sense have they of ills to come, nor care beyond today.”
- Thomas Gray,
“Ode on a Distant Prospect of Eton College”
Native American Elder, "5 Signs You Are Being Hidden Right Now, Not Forgotten"
Full screen recommended.
Native American Elder,
"5 Signs You're Being Hidden Right Now, Not Forgotten"
The Poet: John Jefferson, “Wounded But Not Slain”
“Wounded But Not Slain”
“I am wounded but I am not slain.
I’m bruised and faint they say…
I shall lay me down and bleed a while,
then I shall rise and fight again.
Just let me lie and bleed awhile;
I’ll not be long this way.
My Spirit’s low and my eyes flow.
My heart is sad and sore;
But when my pen’ent tears are gone,
I’ll stand and fight some more.
I’ll bind these wounds; I’ll dry these tears;
I’ll close this bleeding vein;
I’ll not lie here and weep and die:
I’ll rise and fight again.
‘Twas yesterday I bowed so low,
Was weak from tears and pain;
Today I’m strong; my fears are gone;
Today I fight again.”
- John Jefferson
o
“You cannot kill me here. Bring your soldiers, your death, your disease, your collapsed economy because it doesn’t matter, I have nothing left to lose and you cannot kill me here. Bring the tears of orphans and the wails of a mother’s loss, bring your God damn air force and Jesus on a cross, bring your hate and bitterness and long working hours, bring your empty wallets and love long since gone but you cannot kill me here. Bring your sneers, your snide remarks and friendships never felt, your letters never sent, your kisses never kissed, cigarettes smoked to the bone and cancer killing fears but you cannot kill me here. For I may fall and I may fail but I will stand again each time and you will find no satisfaction. Because you cannot kill me here.”
- Iain S. Thomas
"Chastity In A Whorehouse..."
"People do not expect to find chastity in a whorehouse. Why, then, do they expect to find honesty and humanity in government, a congeries of institutions whose modus operandi consists of lying, cheating, stealing, and if need be, murdering those who resist?"
- H. L. Mencken
“A truth’s initial commotion is directly proportional to how deeply the lie was believed… When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker, a raving lunatic.”
– Dresden James
"The Brutal Truth About Violence When The SHTF"
"The Brutal Truth About Violence When The SHTF"
Selco interviewed by Daisy Luther
"Are you prepared for the extreme violence that is likely to come your way if the SHTF? No matter what your plan is, it’s entirely probable that at some point, you’ll be the victim of violence or have to perpetrate violence to survive. As always, Selco is our go-to guy on SHTF reality checks and this thought-provoking interview will shake you to your core.
If you don’t know Selco, he’s from Bosnia and he lived through a year in a city that was blockaded with no utilities, no deliveries of supplies, and no services. In his interviews, he shares what the scenarios the rest of us theorize about were REALLY like. He mentioned to me recently that most folks aren’t prepared for the violence that is part and parcel of a collapse, which brings us to today’s interview.
How prevalent was violence when the SHTF in Bosnia? It was wartime and chaos, from all conflicts in those years in the Balkan region Bosnian conflict was most brutal because of multiple reasons, historical, political and other. To simplify the explanation why violence was common and very brutal, you need to picture a situation where you are “bombarded” with huge amount of information (propaganda) which instills in you very strong feelings of fear and hate. Out of fear and hate, violence grows easy and fast, and over the very short period of time you see how people around you (including you) do things that you could not imagine before.
I can say that violence was almost an everyday thing in the whole spectrum of different activities because it was a fight for survival. Again, whenever (and wherever) you put people in a region without enough resources, you can expect violence.
We were living a normal life, and then suddenly we were thrown in a way of living where if you could not “negotiate” something with someone, you solve the problem by launching a rocket from an RPG through the window of his living room. Hate stripped down the layers of humanity and suddenly it was “normal” to level an apartment building with people inside with shells from a tank or form private prisons with imprisoned civilians for slave work or sex slaves.
Nothing that I saw or read before could have prepared me for the level of violence and blindness to it, for the lives of kids, elders, civilians, and the innocent. Again, the thing that is important for readers is that we were a modern society one day, and then in few weeks it turned into carnage. Do not make the mistake of saying “it cannot happen here” because I made that mistake too. Do not underestimate power of propaganda, fear, hate, and the lowest human instincts, no matter how modern and good your society is right now and how deeply you believe that “it can not happen here”.
I’ve mentioned warlords and gangs in several of my articles. Were they responsible for the majority of the violence or was it hungry families? Fighting of the armies through the whole period of war brings violence in terms of constant shelling from a distance from different kind of weapons. For example a few multiple rocket launchers (VBR) could bring in 30 seconds the destruction in an area of 3-4 apartment buildings, and being there in that moment and surviving it gives you a completely new view on life. Snipers were a constant threat and over time you simply grow a way of living that you constant scan area in front of you where your next steps gonna be. Are you gonna be visible and from where? Etc.
Most brutal violence was actually lawlessness and complete lack of order between different factions and militias, so in some periods there were militias or gangs who simply ruled the cities or part of the city where they were absolutely masters of everything in terms of deciding of taking someone’s life. In lawlessness, you as one person could be really small and not interesting, or join some bigger group of people to be stronger, some family or militia or gang.
An example of a gang would be group of people of some 300 or 500 people who “officially” were a unit or militia and operate for some faction, but in reality they operate mostly for themselves. That included owning part of the black market, having prison (for forced labor or ransom), attacking people and houses for resources, smuggling people from dangerous areas. Violence from those kinds of group was the most immediate violence, the most visible in terms of SHTF talking. If those people came on your door you could obey, fight, or negotiate, but mostly you could not not ask for help from any kind of authority, because there was no real authority.
In any society, no matter where you are living, there are a great number of people who are waiting for the SHTF to go out and do violent things. Small time criminals or simply violent persons who are not openly violent because system is there to punish them for that. It is like that. Some gang leaders that I knew were actually completely sick people with a strange type of charisma that makes people follow them, weird situations that can happen only in a real collapse. They are people who just waited for their time to rise. Those kinds of people together with criminal organization that are already there in any city in the world will be the backbone of SHTF gangs.
Who were the most likely victims? A very simple answer would be that the most likely victims were people who had interesting things without enough defense. But it was not always that simple. For example one of the first houses that got raided in my neighborhood, right at the beginning of collapse while there was still some kind of order, was a rich family’s home. They had a nice house with bars on the windows, a pretty good setup for defense, and they had enough people inside so they could give pretty good resistance to the mob. But they got raided simply because they were known that they are rich, so they were attacked with enough force to be overwhelmed.
It was not only about how much manpower you had and how well-organized defense of your home was, it was also about how juicy a target you were. If you are faced with 150 angry people attacking your home because they are sure you have good stuff inside your chances are low, no matter how good and tough you are. People who were alone were a pretty easy target and old people without support of family or friends.
It was not always about killing someone or violence. For example, if you were alone and without resources but you had something else valuable like some kind of skill or knowledge you could easily be “recruited” for some faction or group, not by your will of course.
What were some ways to prevent yourself from becoming a victim of violence? How do you recommend that people prepare themselves for the possibility of violence? It can be done in steps, or in layers:
• Do not be interesting (or attract attention) when the SHTF. This means a lot of things, for this article I can give a few examples with shortened explanations because it is a huge topic:
• Do not look like a prepper (before or after SHTF). There is no sense in announcing that you are prepping for EMP, civil collapse, apocalypse, or whatever. With that you are risking the probability that when the SHTF, people will remember that you have interesting things in your home. Your home should look ordinary. For example, if you are living in the city on a street where all houses look similar, there is not much sense in making your home look like a fortress. You’ll just attract attention.
Your defense should be based on more subtle means. Some examples are having means to reinforce doors and windows quickly when you need it, or to reinforce them from inside. Make changes in your yard to funnel possible attackers where you want them to be (trees, fence, bush…). You can make your home look abandoned or already looted.
• Think about what survival is! Survival is about staying alive, it is not about being comfortable at the expense of losing your life. I have seen many times people lose their lives simply because they were too attached to their belongings (house, car, land, goods…) so they simply did not want to leave something and run in a particular moment.
• Everything can be earned and bought again except life. Forget about statements like “I will defend it with my life” or “over my dead body” or similar because the real SHTF is usually not heroic or noble. It is hard and brutal. When you are gone you are gone and there might be nobody to take care of your family just because you have been stubborn or trusted in movies when it came to violence. To rephrase it: Be ready to leave your home in a split second if that means you and your family will survive, no matter how many good things you have stored there.
• Be mentally ready for violence: In a way, it is impossible to be ready for violence, especially widespread violence when the SHTF, but you can minimize shock when that happens with some things. If you are not familiar with what violence is, you can try to get yourself close” to it today (in normal times). It can be done, for example, by doing some voluntary work for example in a local hospital, ER or similar… or simply by working with homeless people. Sounds maybe strange but activities like this can get you a bit of a feeling of what it is all about, not to mention that you can learn some practical and useful skills for SHTF.
• Have means and skills (physically) to defend – or to do violence: No matter how old or young you are, your gender or religion I assure you that you are capable of doing violence. It is only a matter of the situation and how far you are going to be pushed. It is not just “some people are capable of violence.” Everybody is capable. Not everybody enjoys doing it or is willing to do it so easily.
In today (normal times) you can learn some violence skills and you should do it, again no matter if you are a woman or old or young. You should own a weapon and know how to use it. You should practice with it, or have at least some basic knowledge about hand-to-hand combat. The worst case scenario is to have a weapon that you try for the first time when SHTF. Be familiar with your means for defense, let your family members know what they need to do in case of attack of your home, have plan, and go through it. Only through practice will you minimize chances for mistakes.
• Use common sense: I know lot of survivalists almost dream about how they are going to use weapons against bad guys when SHTF, and that they will be something like super heroes from movies, saving innocents and killing villains. Truth is that in a real collapse, a lot of things are kind of blurred and you are not sure who the bad guys are. Good guys turn out to be lunatic gang members who want to bring food to their kids. There are no super heroes when SHTF, and if some of them show up they end up dead quickly.
There is only you and your skills and mindset and what you prepared. Use violence as a last resort because of the simple fact that by using violence you are risking of getting killed or hurt. Remember when SHTF there is maybe no doctor or hospital to take care of your wound. It is a time when even a small cut can eventually kill you through infection and lack of proper care.
Reader questions:
"I’m a single mom with a household full of girls. In an SHTF situation, what would our best strategies be to remain safe?" Just like I have mentioned before, strategy is always same for any part of survival, and shooting from the rifle is pretty similar no matter are you man or woman. Being single mom with household full of girls on first look make you as a ideal target in some situations, but we are talking here in prepper terms so there is no reason not to be perfectly well prepared as a single mom with girls.
But yes I admit it is not perfect situation, even if you are prepared well, some things are sure, you need to connect with other people even more. House with couple of girls will always look like easy prey for some people. It is like that.
"Were people in the city safer than people in the country? Can you tell us more about rural living during this time?" In my case definitely no. In the essence it always come to the resources and people. City meant more people less resources, country (rural) meant less people more resources, and because that level of violence simply was lower. That was most important reason.
There are few more reasons why it was much better in the country. People in the country (rural settings) were much more “connected to ground” they were more tough if you like, they grew their own food, had cattle, lived more simple life prior SHTF and when everything collapsed they had less problems getting use to it. Yes they also did not have electricity and phones, running water or connection to other places but they adapted easier to the new life because they had more useful skills then people in the city. Life was harder for them too than prior to the collapse, but they had means to get resources: land, woods, river…
Another thing is that people in small rural communities “in the country” were more connected to each other, people knew their neighborhood and some things were easier to organize, like community security watch, help in case of diseases and similar.
"What types of weapons did people have for self-defense?" It was different political system prior the collapse where it was not so usual to own a weapon legally. And to own one illegally could mean a lot of troubles. Right prior to SHTF, it became possible to buy different weapons on the black market but still, a majority of people did not own weapons. When it all collapsed, it was possible to get a weapon through trade.
Because of the military doctrine here prior to the collapse, we used “East Bloc” weapons. A favorite was AK-47 in all different kind of editions, or older weapons like M-48 rifle, SKS rifle, 22 and similar. People used what they had, so in one period you would be lucky if you had any kind of pistol and knife. Later through the different channels weapon become more available so people had them more. A lot of that was actually junk that some warlords somehow “imported”. Weapons 50-60 years old without proper ammunition, or not in operating condition. A lot of people simply did not have a clue how to use any kind of weapon so a lot of accidental deaths happened.
I remember people storming abandoned army barracks that was mostly looted, but they found in one building a lot of RPGs while other part of the same building was burning. Two guys were trying to figure out a single-use RPG, and while they were messing with it clearly not knowing how that thing worked, they accidentally armed it and launched a rocket that flew through the crowd, not hurting anyone and exploding in wall 100 meters from where they stood. They were smiling, clearly happy because they thought they figured out how that thing worked.
"What weapons do you suggest to have for SHTF?" It is a never-ending discussion and a favorite prepper topic, and I must say that whole discussion is overrated. I have used them in a real situation, and tried and tested lot of different kind of weapons and what works for me may simply not work for you. For example, here for me good choice is AK-47 rifle, maybe for you wherever you are it is very bad choice.
Good advice is: you need to have a weapon that most people have around you because of multiple reasons: spare parts, repairing, ammunition availability, possibility that you can pick that rifle from other people and you know how to use it. What caliber and similar is a matter of discussion again. I am talking from the point of owning a rifle. Another thing is that you need to know how that weapon works. Luckily, most of my readers live in an area where gun laws are great comparing to region where I am. You have much more choices when it comes to owning a weapon and practicing with it. Use that.
And do not forget that using a weapon in a real life situation is not like shooting at beer bottles with your friends after a barbecue. In real life you might be in a situation to use a weapon while you are tired, dirty, and hungry and while someone is screaming next to you. It is going to be maybe when you are not ready to do that, maybe in pitch dark, maybe after you have been awake for 48 hours. At least think about that.
"When should you use violence?" Contrary to some popular beliefs in the prepper community, the point is to use violence only as a last solution. The reason is as I mentioned already, the risk that you can be hurt or killed too, but also once you do violence you change your own rules, or push it more forward, and it is easy to get lost in violence. There are consequences to that, and you are not going to be the same person ever again.
Violence is a tool, not a toy. You need to know how to use it as best as possible, but also to avoid using it when it is not necessary. It is a good idea to set up a clear set of rules (mentally too) when you are gonna use violence and to try to stick to it. For example you will use weapon if someone tries to break your home and attack you, and you need to be ready to do that without hesitation.
"What else should we know about post-collapse violence?" Think with your head and research. One thing that is absolutely important when it comes to understanding how violent it is going to be and what can you expect in your own case of SHTF, is to understand how much media can influence people in making their decisions about violence.
In my case, the media built up situation where people feared so much from other people that they actually hated them. They hated them so much that they actually strip them down from humanity. In a real-life example, it works in a way that people killed other people, including kids and women, because they hated them so much because media told them.
It may look ridiculous and not possible to you, and you might again think “that can not happen here” but please trust your own resources, look for independent information, not mainstream media, in order to get the right information about what is really happening in the beginning of collapse. Do not be pulled into “popular opinion” just because the “man from TV” (whoever he might be) told you so. It is easier today. Because of the internet, you have much more choices for correct information than in my time. But still be careful, you might find yourself rioting together with 500 people just because you trusted some media."
"More information about Selco: Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations like Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months. Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world."
Read more of Selco’s articles here:
Canadian Prepper, "Prepare for Gangs and Looters: 90 Day Blackout"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 11/7/26
"Prepare for Gangs and Looters:
90 Day Blackout"
Comments here:
"The Illusion of Freedom"
“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.” - Frank Zappa
“The choice for mankind lies between freedom and happiness and for the great bulk of mankind, happiness is better.” - George Orwell, "1984"
"The False Choice Society"
"The False Choice Society"
by The Zman
"The false dichotomy, sometimes called the false choice, is one of the most popular rhetoric tricks used in liberal democracy. The point is to frame the debate in such a way as to either avoid some unpleasant topic or narrow the scope to the benefit of one party in the debate. “We either do X or we allow this terrible thing to continue” is an effective way to compel action. After all, everyone knows that doing nothing in never an acceptable action. Only monsters choose that option.
It is fair to say that our political system is built upon the false choice. Every election we are asked to choose between the two offerings put forward by the parties. In most cases, one option is ridiculous. That is why over 90% of incumbents win reelection. In races with real competition, the options put forward are nearly identical. Both parties offer up a plank of wood spouting whatever slogans are popular at the moment. The voters select between two robots programmed by the same people.
The reason this is a false choice is there is at least one other option. The voters could stage a boycott of the election. Maybe demand some reforms as a condition of rejoining the charade of democracy. Of course, the voters could riot at the polling stations, hurl the voting machines into the river and burn the ballots. They could vote for a third party candidate as a protest. Picking from one of the two options offered up from the uniparty is a false choice, because there are other options.
Of course, people do not select the other options because they are constantly reminded that those are all bad options. No rational person votes third-party. Even the most cynical critics of democracy say the third party option is a waste of time. Similarly, boycotts are dismissed as pointless. Rebellion, of course, is dismissed out of hand, despite the fact the country was literally founded on rebellion. The one thing everyone seems to agree upon is you have no choice but to pick from the two parties.
Another example of where the false choice is the foundation of liberal democracy is in the current Covid panic. The reason the rulers took a wrecking ball to society is they were sure they had just two options. It was either the wrecking ball or do nothing and we all know that doing nothing is never an option. They had to do something, and all of the choices were bad, so they happily went with the bad option. When you eliminate the best option, you are always left with the worst options.
The false choice plays out in more subtle ways too. Unwilling to leave well enough alone, the rulers are now trying to impose a vaccine passport. The idea is to require this for travel or to attend public gatherings. Given that liberal democracy looks a lot like fascism, businesses and banks are making noises about requiring the vaccine in order to have a job or use the financial system. You can get the vaccine, the choice is yours, but you may not be able live in society.
People are rightly upset about this turn of events. House broken conservatives are banging on about how the vaccine passport if just like when their grandparents made the Jews wear gold stars. The point of the yes/no debate on the vaccine passport is to distract from the real problem. The people in charge of public health are incompetent and have turned a minor public health problem into a disaster. Worse yet, they seem to take some pleasure in being incompetent at it.
Not so long ago, proof of vaccination was a common requirement for travel. People were given a card that showed their vaccinations. This was before computers when the people in charge were somewhat competent at their jobs. People went along with it because they understood it was for public health. They could trust the people in charge enough to go along with it. The people who cured things like polio and smallpox were proud of it and the policies that made it possible.
Today, of course, no one trusts anyone. There can be no public pride in collective accomplishment because we have accomplished nothing, other than putting men in dresses and desecrating some statues. This is why half the public is skeptical of the vaccine and the passport business. Instead of dealing with that reality, we choose to have a debate about the passport itself. The false choice here is whether to get the vaccine or not. Whether to have a proof of vaccine or not.
The promise of democracy is that public policy is no longer set according to the narrow interests of a small ruling class. Instead, the marketplace of democracy will set the priorities and select the polices based on majority will. In reality, democracy is a mass delusion where the public debates pointless issues and selects from identical options, all in order to avoid facing reality. Say what you will about aristocracy, at least everyone knows who is in charge and who is to blame.
The Covid hysteria underscored how the false choice society staggers on through inertia and dumb luck. Faced with a real crisis, the regime would collapse in a pile, with the people bickering with one another over how best to celebrate the pile once the dust settles. The false choice society is a society built on lies the people tell one another in order to avoid reality. The trouble is reality is the thing that does not go away when you stop believing in it."
Todd Hayen, "Believe Anything; Believe Nothing"
"Believe Anything; Believe Nothing"
by Todd Hayen
"What compels us to believe something is true? In an age where photographs can be fabricated, film can be manipulated, and speeches are crafted to deceive, our traditional markers of truth have lost their footing. So, the question becomes: what do you look to as your measure of what is real?
I recently came across a post claiming that the newly released Epstein files prove Donald Trump is a pedophile. It presented what appeared to be a detailed set of documents, emails, perhaps, describing an encounter between Trump and a thirteen-year-old girl allegedly brought to his hotel by Jeffrey Epstein himself. I’ll admit I only skimmed it. Reading anything on Facebook demands serious vetting, at least for me. But as I scrolled through, I couldn’t help thinking of the Trump haters who would devour it without a second thought, because when it comes to belief, bias often does the heavy lifting.
And I’m not exempt from that. I catch myself gravitating toward reports that frame certain Trump decisions as sound or even shrewd - not necessarily out of admiration for the man, but out of something more like desperate optimism. Call it hopium, if you must. I simply want something, anything, to be going right out there. So, when a report suggests that a particular move was intelligent or calculated, I feel a wave of relief, and I tend to believe it. Though not always. I do make a habit of looking for corroborating sources before I fully buy in.
What can we actually believe? Am I dismissing the pedophile story simply because believing it would force me to despise Trump? And am I accepting the more flattering accounts of his decision-making for reasons that are purely emotional, dressed up as logic? Or is it genuine common sense telling me one story is implausible and the other more grounded? The trouble is, I’m fairly certain the people who believe the pedophile story, the Trump haters, are equally convinced they’re applying common sense. So, whose common sense is more reliable, and by what measure? Nobody can answer that clearly.
And this is where we find ourselves in an AI-infested world: our old tools for sorting truth from fiction have been quietly retired. There was a time when the information we encountered came from sources that had earned at least a baseline of trust. Journalism once operated by a strict code, no story ran without multiple corroborating sources, on-record confirmation, editorial oversight, and a clear chain of verification. Photographs were considered credible. Film was considered ironclad, nearly impossible to fabricate in any convincing way. Those days are gone.
Mainstream news has largely squandered whatever credibility it once held. And AI has finished off the rest. Any image of any person, doing or saying anything imaginable, can now be generated on demand. Which brings me to something else I recently came across: a photograph of Bill Clinton in a dress and tiara, bent over a table, surrounded by people doing things I won’t describe in detail lest I am accused of pornography. Real? A few years ago I would have said almost certainly not. Now, genuinely, I’m not sure. And that uncertainty is the point, because there are people who looked at that same image and said, “obviously true, it fits everything I know about him,” while an equal number said, “absurd, I refuse to believe that about Bill Clinton.” Both camps decided instantly, and neither questioned themselves for a moment. That is a deeply troubling place for a society to be.
So, then, what actually makes something believable? Is it purely bias, a narrative we’ve already committed to, which determines in advance what “the impossible” looks like? Or is there still a role for common sense, the instinct that rejects certain conclusions simply because the world, however dark, cannot be quite that broken?
I also recently watched a clip of Bill Maher doing something rather remarkable - walking back his long-held mockery of QAnon’s claims about elite-level child trafficking and pedophilia. Maher, who spent years dismissing those claims as paranoid fantasy, acknowledged that the evidence of systemic child sexual abuse among powerful people is real enough that he can no longer laugh it off. He has come, reluctantly, to believe it. And yet, in nearly the same breath, he drew a firm line at cannibalism. Eating children, drinking their blood? No. That’s where Bill gets off the train.
But here’s what I find genuinely fascinating about that distinction: what, exactly, is the difference? If you’ve already accepted that powerful, celebrated, presumably sane individuals are systematically sexually abusing children - why does adding cannibalism to the picture suddenly strain credulity? At what point on that spectrum of depravity does the brain say, “too far”? And what does it tell us about the nature of belief itself that the line exists at all?
And that, perhaps, is the most honest answer any of us can offer. Belief has a ceiling, a point beyond which even the most committed mind refuses to go. That ceiling is different for every person, shaped by upbringing, experience, temperament, and yes, politics. What one person considers an obvious truth, another considers unhinged fantasy. And in an AI-manipulated world, nobody - not you, not me, not Bill Maher - has a reliable map anymore.
There is a concept worth mentioning here: confirmation bias. It isn’t new, and it isn’t unique to any particular tribe. The human brain is wired to seek out information that reinforces what it already suspects to be true, and to unconsciously discount what challenges it. We have always done this. But there was a time when the sheer scarcity of fabricated information acted as a natural brake on the process. You couldn’t just manufacture a convincing photograph, a credible document, or a realistic film clip. The effort required was enormous, and the sources producing information were finite enough to be monitored and challenged.
That brake no longer exists. The floodgates are open, and what pours through is an undifferentiated torrent of the real, the doctored, the partially true, the completely invented, and the strategically misleading, all formatted to look identical. Your Facebook feed does not distinguish between a Reuters dispatch and a basement fabrication. Your eyes cannot tell a genuine photograph from a generated one. And your gut, that old faithful compass, has been so thoroughly manipulated by years of targeted content that it may now be pointing in whatever direction an algorithm has decided is best for your engagement metrics.
So where does that leave us? It leaves us, I think, with only a handful of tools worth trusting, and none of them are passive. The first is ruthless sourcing, not just checking where a story comes from, but asking who benefits from you believing it, and why it is appearing in front of you right now. The second is a tolerance for uncertainty, which is the willingness to say “I don’t know yet” rather than filling the gap with whatever feels satisfying. The third, and perhaps the hardest, is self-suspicion. The moment a story feels deeply gratifying, the moment it perfectly confirms your worst fears about your political enemies or your most hopeful fantasies about your allies, that is precisely the moment to slow down.
I started this with a simple question: what compels us to believe something is true? I don’t have a clean answer. Nobody does anymore. But I do know this: the people most confidently certain of what is real right now are almost certainly the most lost. The rest of us, stumbling through the fog with our skepticism intact and our certainty appropriately rattled, may be the closest thing left to clear-eyed. Believe carefully. That’s the best any of us can do."
Todd Hayen PhD is a registered psychotherapist practicing in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. He holds a PhD in depth psychotherapy and an MA in Consciousness Studies. He specializes in Jungian, archetypal, psychology. Todd also writes for his own substack, which you can read here.
Larry C. Johnson, "Full Refineries, Empty Tanks"
"Full Refineries, Empty Tanks"
by Larry C. Johnson
"Here is a number the White House would prefer you not memorize: 99.259 million barrels. That is how much distillate, meaning diesel, heating oil and the like, the United States had in storage at the end of October. It is the lowest weekly level since May 2003. Diesel inventories are now 17.8 percent below where they stood on February 27, the day before Operation Epic Fury, and roughly 13 percent below the five-year seasonal average.
If you drive a truck, farm a field or heat a house in New England, that number already shows up in your bills. The national average for diesel was $6.29 a gallon on November 2. Diesel futures closed at $4.39 a gallon on Friday. And winter, as one market analyst I rely on dryly noted, “has not yet fully joined the bidding.”
The refineries are fine. That’s the problem. The easy story would be that American refineries are falling apart. They are not. The latest Energy Information Administration data, for the week ended October 30, show the opposite: Refineries processed 16.725 million barrels of crude a day, up 199,000 barrels from the week before and 5.6 percent above February. National utilization hit 94.5 percent. On the Gulf Coast it reached 96.1 percent. Distillate production held at 5.154 million barrels a day, 7.1 percent above February.
In other words, the system is running flat out and still cannot put anything aside. The inventory draw that week was not caused by a refinery breakdown or a sudden export binge. Domestic demand jumped by 232,000 barrels a day, to 4.439 million. Exports rose a mere 21,000 barrels a day. The harvest probably explains part of it, with combines and grain trucks burning diesel across the Farm Belt. But EIA’s demand figure is an estimate of apparent consumption, not a meter on every tractor in Iowa.
The structural problem is that Americans and foreign buyers are bidding for the same shrinking pile. Over the past four weeks, domestic demand averaged 4.175 million barrels a day, 8.7 percent above last year. Exports averaged 1.353 million barrels a day, about 23 percent above February. Jet fuel exports are up 81 percent since February. We are selling our fuel abroad at war prices while our own tanks drain.
As the analysis puts it, America is not failing to produce diesel. It is failing to rebuild a cushion. A system with no cushion only needs one hurricane, one refinery fire or one cold snap to turn a tight market into a shortage.
The reserve that isn’t: Then there is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the national savings account for exactly this kind of emergency. It held 415.4 million barrels on February 27. It now holds 282.2 million, the lowest level since October 1982. That is a 32 percent drawdown in eight months, mostly through the 172-million-barrel US share of the International Energy Agency’s emergency release. And we are not done. Last week, the government said oil companies had agreed to borrow about 40 million more barrels, the final batch of the US commitment. The Energy Department’s own projection puts the reserve at about 243 million barrels once everything is delivered. Consider the floors we are passing on the way down:
The informal safety line, about 300 million barrels. Amos Hochstein, a former Biden energy adviser, said he knew of no one who thought the reserve could safely go much lower. We passed it this autumn.
The statutory floor, 252.4 million barrels. Congress set it as the limit for routine emergency sales. The Energy Department is getting around it by calling the releases “exchanges” rather than sales. Clever. The caverns do not know the difference. If the last 40 million barrels go out, we fall through this one too.
The caverns themselves. Sandia National Laboratories found in late 2024 that well deformation is outpacing the department’s repair capacity. Three of the six caverns at Bayou Choctaw have one drawdown left before they risk losing structural integrity. The GAO now puts effective drawdown capacity near 2.7 million barrels a day, against a design rate of 4.4 million.
What is left in the caverns matters as much as how much. On October 16, the Energy Department reported 96.6 million barrels of sweet crude and 185.6 million barrels of sour. Neither is heavy crude. DOE describes both as mostly light, between 30 and 40 degrees API. The difference is sulfur, and sulfur by itself makes nothing. Refiners pay to strip it out to meet the 15-parts-per-million limit on diesel.
What matters is where the barrels go. Gulf Coast refineries, which make most of America’s diesel, spent billions on cokers and hydrocrackers to run heavier, higher-sulfur crude and turn more of each barrel into diesel and jet fuel. Feed those plants light sweet shale instead and they make more gasoline and less diesel. So the reserve’s sour barrels are its real diesel insurance. They are the closest match the SPR has for those refineries.
That insurance is down to about 186 million barrels. If the final 40 million barrels on loan are mostly sour, it could fall to around 146 million. Even then, the reserve cannot stand in for the truly heavy Canadian, Venezuelan and Mexican crudes those refineries were built to run. That is why the nearly 4 million barrels a day arriving from Canada matter more to your diesel bill than the SPR’s headline number. So the reserve is not just lower. It is slower, older and more fragile than the number suggests. And the Energy Department, never one to waste a euphemism, still calls it strategic.
Who pays: Diesel is not a luxury good. It moves nearly everything Americans eat, wear and buy. It runs the combines, the freight trains, the barges and the backup generators. When diesel stays above $6 a gallon, the cost shows up a few weeks later in groceries, shipping fees and every “fuel surcharge” line on every invoice in the country. That is the inflation voters punished last Tuesday, and it is baked in for the winter.
The empty reserve makes it worse, because it removes the government’s only real tool for the next shock. The SPR exists so that a president can open the taps when a hurricane takes out Gulf Coast refineries or a war closes a strait. This president has already opened them for the current war. If Iran hits another tanker, or a cold snap lands on the Northeast in January, there is much less left to throw at the problem, and it comes out slower. Refilling will not be cheap either. At $90 a barrel, putting back 200 million barrels would cost about $18 billion, with WTI trading near $91 on Friday.
None of this should surprise anyone who has been reading Karl Miller. His October 22 assessment of the UAE showed Fujairah’s product stocks down about 65 percent, with light products down 87 percent. His November 1 report on the Gulf tanker fleet showed why the cushion is not coming back soon. Seventy-nine tankers damaged, 18 VLCCs out of service, replacement ships not due until 2028 to 2030. He estimated that losing just 10 percent of Gulf product-tanker service, on a longer voyage, would cut 243,750 barrels a day of diesel and 130,000 of jet fuel. ADNOC’s own CEO told ADIPEC on Monday that diesel stocks in some markets were at their lowest seasonal level in 35 years. The Gulf lost its buffers to missiles. America is spending its buffers to keep pump prices from rising faster. It is the same disease with a different cause, and the market is pricing both.
Winter is coming. So is the bill. To be fair, the data do not show a collapse. Refineries are running hard, Canadian heavy crude is flowing at close to 4 million barrels a day, and the discount on Western Canadian Select says heavy feedstock is not the immediate bottleneck. Nor do the numbers prove anyone in Washington is deliberately shipping diesel overseas to pad refiners’ margins. What they show is simpler and, frankly, worse. America is producing more diesel than it did before the war and still running down its stocks, while the emergency reserve behind those stocks is nearly spent.
And here is the part Washington will be tempted to forget now that the votes are counted. The election is over. The oil shock is not. The ballots were cast on Tuesday, but the barrels lost since February 28 are still lost. The tankers sitting on the bottom of the Gulf of Oman did not refloat when the networks called the House.
Even the optimists are measuring the recovery in years. Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, warned in October that even after Hormuz fully reopens, refilling the world’s inventories while meeting demand “could take up to two years.” Karl Miller’s fleet data say the replacement tankers will not arrive until 2028 to 2030. Refilling America’s own reserve means buying back more than 170 million barrels in a market that has none to spare. A ceasefire tomorrow would stop the bleeding. It would not refill the tanks, rebuild the fleet or bring diesel back to $4 a gallon.
Voters punished the war in November. They will be paying for it well into the next presidential term. The administration has spent eight months treating the Strategic Petroleum Reserve like a credit card with no statement date. The statement is arriving now, just as the furnaces kick on. Diesel is below 100 million barrels, the reserve is at a 44-year low, and the Gulf’s tanker fleet will not be rebuilt before the next presidential term. The voters already noticed. The market noticed long before them. The White House, as usual, will notice last."
o
Related:
"We're so freakin' doomed!" - The Mogambo Guru
Gerald Celente, "What's Coming Is Worse Than A Recession"
Gerald Celente, 11/7/26
"What's Coming Is Worse Than A Recession"
"Gerald Celente warns of a global economic slowdown, rising inflation, escalating wars, and growing Gen Z protests. He explains how soaring fuel costs, military spending, the potential AI bubble collapse, and the growing wealth gap could trigger a major economic crisis. Is the worst yet to come?"
Comments here:
o
Related:
Martin Armstrong,
Catherine Austin Fitts
Edward Dowd,
Dan, I Allegedly, "What If You Can't Get Your Money Out?"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 11/7/26
"What If You Can't Get Your Money Out?"
"What happens when you have money in the bank but can't access it? The banking crisis in Paraguay, the collapse of Ueno Bank, and the banking system outage in Japan affecting 128 financial institutions are raising serious questions about financial security around the world. Could something like this happen in the United States? We examine bank failures, frozen accounts, ATM outages, deposit insurance, the Federal Reserve, credit markets, and the vulnerabilities in today's banking system. We also discuss the Insurrection Act, what it means for Americans, the changing White House leadership with Stephen Miller replacing Susie Wiles, and why emergency preparedness matters. How much cash should you keep at home? Are your savings protected? What happens if credit cards, ATMs, and electronic payments stop working? We discuss personal finance, emergency cash, food storage, water, household supplies, and protecting your family. This is Business News You Can Use from iAllegedly. Stay informed, stay prepared, and pay attention to what's happening around the world."
Comments here:
"Snyder Reports, 11/7/26"
Full screen recommended.
Snyder Reports, 11/7/26
"Everyone's Watching Fridges -
The Real Cyber Attack Is Coming Here"
"Everyone is watching refrigerators and freezers. A cybersecurity expert says that's exactly why hackers will hit somewhere else. In this update I break down the 5 hidden targets that could create chaos across the US - from traffic lights and apartment key fobs, to shipping warehouses, hospitals and grain silos. You'll learn how a warehouse hack could delay medication and grocery deliveries, why commercial heating and cooling systems could force schools and hospitals to close, and what the FBI and EPA confirmed back in July about water and wastewater attacks across 7-8 states. I also cover what happened the next month in August at military commissaries, and why hackers change targets when too many eyes are watching one system. This isn't about taking over infrastructure, it's about disruption."
Comments here:
Adventures With Danno, "Stocking Up At Walmart"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 11/7/26
"Stocking Up At Walmart"
Comments here:
Friday, November 6, 2026
"A Quiet World To Get Lost in"
Full screen recommended.
"A Quiet World To Get Lost in"
"Relaxing classical music for peaceful moments, beautiful nature, and a quiet escape from the noise of everyday life. This Visual Poem invites you into a gentle world of tranquil landscapes, soft sunlight, peaceful waters, blooming meadows, and unhurried moments where everything seems to move a little more slowly. Leave the noise behind for a while. Wander through quiet paths, listen to the gentle rhythm of nature, and let the peaceful scenery and delicate classical melodies give your thoughts somewhere softer to rest. Perfect for reading, studying, writing, working, relaxing, or simply enjoying a little stillness in your day. Sometimes, getting lost is how we find our way back to peace."
"Tomorrow Is a Dangerous Word"
Full screen recommended.
Delta Blues Brother,
"Tomorrow Is a Dangerous Word"
"Most dreams don't die because life is cruel. They die because we keep saying... "Tomorrow." "Tomorrow Is a Dangerous Word" is a heartfelt Delta blues reflection about procrastination, missed opportunities, and the quiet way time slips through our fingers while we believe there's always another day. Built around warm resonator guitar, expressive harmonica, and a weathered voice full of lived experience, this song reminds us that the greatest thief isn't failure - it's postponement. This is the blues of urgency. Tomorrow has buried more dreams than failure ever did."
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