Friday, October 8, 2021

"80% Market Crash Ahead, But Meltup Still Has 20% To Go Beforehand"

"80% Market Crash Ahead, 
But Meltup Still Has 20% To Go Beforehand"

"If David Hunter is correct, get ready for a wild ride folks. Hunter, whose bold predictions this year have so far proved surprisingly accurate, expects the market to zoom 20% higher from here in a spectacular blow-off top…to be then swiftly followed by a historically epic crash, falling somewhere between 65-80%. He thinks this approaching bust will be the largest global financial crisis in history. In this brand-new video interview, David gets specific about his forecast timing, as well as his projected price targets for how he expects key assets to perform both during the meltup and in the following crash. This one's a must-watch, folks."

"How It Really Is"

 
Ho, ho, ho...

"San Francisco Is A Ghost Town"

Full screen recommended.
"San Francisco is a ghost town… There’s just nobody here, it’s like the apocalypse’. San Francisco’s office occupancy is the lowest of any U.S. metro area. Buildings are empty. Workers are gone. Mayor London Breed to lift mask requirements in desperate bid to revitalize city. Offices are empty. Workers are gone. And hundreds of downtown merchants are hanging on by a thread. Here are two of their stories."
Full screen recommended.
"Chaos by the Bay: 
The Truth About Homelessness in San Francisco":
"San Francisco has become plagued by homelessness, addiction, and property crime. In this short documentary, I investigate what went wrong - how one of the world's most prosperous cities has become a haven of public disorder."

"America Running Out Of Everything"

"America Running Out Of Everything… Appliance Delays 
Cause Havoc… The Great Diaper Shortage… 
Even Toys Tough To Come By… Food Prices New Peak"
by Derek Thompson

"Is it just me, or does it feel like America is running out of everything? I visited CVS last week to pick up some at-home COVID-19 tests. They’d been sold out for a week, an employee told me. So I asked about paper towels. “We’re out of those too,” he said. “Try Walgreens.” I drove to a Walgreens that had paper towels. But when I asked a pharmacist to fill some very common prescriptions, he told me the store had run out. “Try the Target up the road,” he suggested. Target’s pharmacy had the meds, but its front area was alarmingly barren, like the canned-food section of a grocery store one hour before a hurricane makes landfall.

This is the economy now. One-hour errands are now multi-hour odysseys. Next-day deliveries are becoming day-after-next deliveries. That car part you need? It’ll take an extra week, sorry. The book you were looking for? Come back in November. The baby crib you bought? Make it December. Eyeing a new home-improvement job that requires several construction workers? Haha, pray for 2022.

Just 180 More Days Until Your Oven Arrives: Appliance Delays Cause Havoc: When Deric Bradford’s delivery of a new clothes washer was delayed for several weeks this September, the 43-year-old banker started hauling his baskets of dirty clothes to John Calderon’s place - “like I was a college student,” he said.

The two are friends, but the laundry runs are all business. Mr. Calderon is the owner of Los Angeles-based Advanced Building and Remodeling Inc., which helped Mr. Bradford buy appliances for the Hollywood Hills home he moved into over the summer.

Mr. Calderon and other remodelers and appliance sellers are trying to keep consumers like Mr. Bradford happy in the midst of delays on many appliances. Manufacturing and supply-chain problems have turned household amenities into hard-to-find trophies, leaving consumers and salespeople alike scrambling for workarounds. Appliance sellers are doing double duty as therapists to frustrated consumers, who may find themselves eating cereal for dinner and doing dishes in the bathtub for months.

Diaper shortage hits US amid COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues: Many American families are having a hard time finding diapers for their infants and toddlers as the National Diaper Bank Network said 1 in 3 American families are in need of the baby item. The network suggested to the New York Times the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the global supply chain is likely the reason the country is seeing a diaper shortage. Companies are facing a labor shortage and difficulty getting imports from countries that have been placed on a temporary lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.

FARMERS BRANCH, Texas (CBSDFW.COM) – The sawdust is flying inside the headquarters of KidKraft, a Farmers Branch-based company best known for children’s play sets, kitchens, and dollhouses. CEO Geoff Walker says employees design and build prototypes here in North Texas, but the final products are made in China and Vietnam before being shipped to the U.S. by sea.

PARIS, Oct 7 (Reuters) – "World food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a 10-year peak, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also projected record global cereal production in 2021, but said this would be outpaced by forecast consumption. FAO’s food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 130.0 points last month, the highest reading since September 2011, according to the agency’s data."

"Where Are All the Sad Faces?"

"Where Are All the Sad Faces?"
by Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "We end the week as we began it… with our gast flabbered by the news. The week was dominated by the debt ceiling hoax… in which one party earnestly tried to save the nation… while the other was determined to send it into a dark spiral of default and catastrophe. At least, that’s the way the elite press described it.

Actually, there was never any danger of default. The feds get plenty of money from taxes to cover debt payments. And there was never any real danger that they would fail to raise the debt ceiling. After all, debt – selling U.S. bonds to the Federal Reserve (aka “printing money”) – is mother’s milk to both Republicans and Democrats… and the whole ruling elite. None of them want to be weaned.

And this week, we looked more closely at how this affects its big beneficiary – Wall Street. As intended, low interest rates forced investors to take their money out of real investments and move them to options, tech fantasies, memes, and razzmatazz speculation.

Last year, for the first time ever, option trading exceeded stock transactions. Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) has doubled over the last 12 months. Tesla (TSLA) has almost completed the double, too. Of course, Elon Musk, of Tesla fame, has famously disrupted everything. We’re not sure what Dick has disrupted… but we’re sure he’s got a good racket going, too.

No Sad Faces: In yesterday’s report, we looked at how profitable investing in the stock market has been – with the S&P 500 up nearly 30% over the last 12 months… and some university endowments up over 50%. But since the economy is growing at… maybe… 5% – using our estimate of GDP growth as the measuring stick – these gains cannot possibly be coming from real increases in profits or win-win wealth. Instead, they must be casino-style winnings… from a win-lose, zero-sum game… where one player wins and the other goes home with a sad face and an empty pocket.

It caused us to wonder. With so many happy faces in view… where are all the sad ones? Oh, Dear Reader, you know… don’t you? They’re in tomorrow’s news, aren’t they? When stocks crash… and consumer prices soar. The Fed added about $4 trillion to its balance sheet (new money!) since March 2020. Someone will have to pay for it.
Pied Piper of Tesl: Returning to Elon… Of course, he is a great showman… and has become a kind of pied piper for the frenzied players. When he puts the pipe to his lips… the casino goes quiet… And then, all dance to his tune. All he’d have to do would be to mention that he likes tacos… and there’d be a run on salsa verde.

Think we’re joking? Here’s Joanna Ossinger at Bloomberg: "The Shiba Inu cryptocurrency is now the world’s 20th-biggest by market value and has more than tripled in the past week, partly fueled by Elon Musk’s latest tweet about his own puppy. The SHIB token, centered around a breed of Japanese hunting dogs, is up another 69% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko pricing, putting its market value above $10 billion. […]

A tweet by Tesla Inc.’s boss late Sunday night U.S. time with a picture of a dog and the comment, “Floki Frunkpuppy”, may have also contributed to the frenzy. That followed a tweet in June that said, “My Shiba Inu will be named Floki” and one last month that read “Floki has arrived.”

Artful Dodger: Meanwhile over in the art market… something amazing happened. Logical… almost inevitable… but still insane. CNN reports: "A museum lent an artist $84K – so he kept the money and called it “art” When an exhibition about the future of labor opened at a Danish art museum on Friday, visitors should have seen two large picture frames filled with banknotes worth a combined $84,000. The pieces were meant to be reproductions of two works by artist Jens Haaning, who previously used framed cash to represent the average annual salaries of an Austrian and a Dane – in euros and Danish krone respectively.

But when the Kunsten Museum of Modern Art in Aalborg took delivery of the recreated artworks ahead of the show, gallery staff made a surprising discovery: the frames were empty. Rather than being the handiwork of thieves, the loaned cash was missing thanks to Haaning himself, who says he is keeping the money – in the name of art."

He’s got a point. Art is whatever they say it is. If you will pay thousands of dollars for a blank canvas… why not pay as much for no canvas at all?

Fantasy Investing: Meanwhile, the non-fungible token (NFT) market imitates neither art nor life. Neither fish nor fowl. Neither animal, mineral, nor vegetable. Neither stock, nor bond. When you buy an NFT, you get nothing other than the record, entombed somewhere on the blockchain, confirming that you were the dope who bought it. And thanks to a new NFT platform called Visionrare, you can pretend to invest in start-up stocks… but as a pure game.

You do not actually own the stocks. You just bet on whether they will go up or down in a complicated, fantasy league kind of approach. TechCrunch’s Lucas Matney explains that the idea is to...take the gamification of investing to its furthest end, mimicking the appeal of fantasy sports leagues and giving users a way to compete with friends by betting on startups they think will be successful. Users can bid on NFT shares of hundreds of different startups at auction and compete to build the best performing fake portfolio.

Does that sound like fun? No, not to us anyway. The gamblers didn’t seem to like it either. The concept – fantasy football meets start-up investing – looked like a loser from the get-go. And for its sponsors, tomorrow came quickly…Less than 24 hours after it began, Visionrare was pronounced dead. Today, the long faces are expected to gather at the grave."

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 10/8/21"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/8/21:
"Alert! The US Economic MELTDOWN 
Is Getting Worse Faster! Important Updates"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/8/21:
"'Unusual' Economic Activity? Really? 
Well, You Haven't Seen ANYTHING Yet. Count On It"

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 10/8/21"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 10/8/21"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"If you want to see that the Deep State globalists are losing the narrative and control, look no further than the news of the DOJ under AG Merrick Garland. He is sending the FBI to go after parents as domestic terrorists for the crime of protesting Critical Race Theory (CRT) being taught to their children. Who cares it CRT is hateful and racism that is labeled with some academic sounding name. It’s not academic, but pure junk science and leftie propaganda infecting our schools and children. Clif High says it’s “absurd and a desperate attempt to regain the narrative, but it’s not going to work.”

Mitch McConnell has given the Democrats an out and bought them a window of time to figure out a way to explode the Federal debt by trillions of dollars. McConnell and 10 other Republicans joined with the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling $480 billion.  That will get keep the federal lights on and bills paid until early December. Is the debt ceiling game more dangerous than ever? You bet it is, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt credit rating may suffer from the gaming of our huge debt.

Been to the grocery store lately? Then you know everything is costing more. So much for the Federal Reserve saying inflation is transitory. Market experts are saying it’s permanent or at least sticking around for many years to come. Why is inflation back with a vengeance? There are many reasons, and I’ll name a few. It might be a good idea to stock up –on everything!!"

"Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about 
these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up."
Blogger video embedding fails, please view at link.

"The Global Energy Crisis Is Going To Take 'The Everything Shortage' To An Entirely New Level"

"The Global Energy Crisis Is Going To Take 
'The Everything Shortage' To An Entirely New Level"
by Michael Snyder

"This is going to be one tough winter. On top of everything else we are facing, a very alarming energy crisis is rapidly growing all over the world. Supplies of natural gas and coal are getting tighter by the day, and this is dramatically affecting manufacturing in major exporters such as China. So that means that less stuff is going to be coming across the ocean in the months ahead, and that means that the shortages in our stores are going to be getting even worse. This is really happening, and we are going to have to deal with it.

Of course store shelves are already getting pretty bare all around the country. They are calling it “the everything shortage”, and it has been intensifying with each passing week. I have so much to talk about that I am not even sure where to begin, and so I am just going to start with the the Bigley Piggly Wiggly in Charleston, West Virginia. Store owner Jeff Joseph says that a shortage of Gatorade is one of the biggest issues that he is currently wrestling with…

"If you’ve been to the grocery store lately, you may have noticed some of your favorite products aren’t available. At the Bigley Piggly Wiggly in Charleston, WV the section where they keep Gatorade is close to empty. “Who would think that Gatorade would be a problem to get in the store? But apparently, it is and it is something that we have been wrestling with for quite some time now,” said Jeff Joseph, store owner."

Day after day, I see more local news reports like this. I just picked this one out because I really like the name of the store. And my readers continue to send me emails about what conditions are like where they live. One reader that is located in Pennsylvania was deeply alarmed by a lack of milk and dog food during her last visit to the supermarket…

"Yesterday, I was at our Giant supermarket on Linglestown Road a few miles from Harrisburg, PA. It is the largest Giant in the area. I was at the milk section, there were maybe more than 10 empty rows with no milk in them. My husband wanted chocolate milk, they had only one brand. I was looking for dog treats, and found out they moved the aisle, there was not as many brands. They are taking the dog food bags and moving them out to the front of the shelf to make them look full, but there are no bags behind them. We like Arizona canned tea, but I had to settle for a big bottle instead. Canned tea is hard to get. The aisle with the toilet paper and towels was half empty. I wanted some Nutter Butter cookies (like I need them), but they had none."

In southwestern Arkansas, it sounds like things are even worse. We had been warned that there would be a shortage of toys during this holiday season, and one of my readers says that she is already noticing a huge change… "It is horrifying to walk through a Dollar General Store down here in Southwestern Arkansas. There are bare shelves, the toy aisle, normally flooded this time of year in anticipation of Christmas…there is nothing there, like what should normally be there. Brookshire’s is the premium market down here…they do not have frozen turkeys, and the frozen chicken that we purchased–Tyson chicken—I bought a five-pound flat of drumsticks…there were still feathers on some of the pieces of chicken. I had to wash, pluck, and wow…just wow….what the factories must be like these days is all I’m saying."

We have never seen anything like this before, and the experts are telling us that the months in front of us are going to be even worse. These days, even big corporate news outlets are constantly running stories about the shortages. The following is an excerpt from one report that was entitled “America Is Running Out of Everything”

"I visited CVS last week to pick up some at-home COVID-19 tests. They’d been sold out for a week, an employee told me. So I asked about paper towels. “We’re out of those too,” he said. “Try Walgreens.” I drove to a Walgreens that had paper towels. But when I asked a pharmacist to fill some very common prescriptions, he told me the store had run out. “Try the Target up the road,” he suggested. Target’s pharmacy had the meds, but its front area was alarmingly barren, like the canned-food section of a grocery store one hour before a hurricane makes landfall."

In the past, any shortages were always very temporary. But these shortages aren’t going to go away any time soon. In fact, that same article that I just quoted openly admitted that “this is the economy now”…

"This is the economy now. One-hour errands are now multi-hour odysseys. Next-day deliveries are becoming day-after-next deliveries. That car part you need? It’ll take an extra week, sorry. The book you were looking for? Come back in November. The baby crib you bought? Make it December. Eyeing a new home-improvement job that requires several construction workers? Haha, pray for 2022."

Even the usually optimistic talking heads on television are warning us that the colossal problems that have caused this epic global supply chain crisis are not going to resolved for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, as I noted above, a very frightening global energy crisis threatens to take “the everything shortage” to an entirely new level.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled “Natural-Gas Shortage Sets Off Scramble Ahead of Winter” that really freaked a lot of people out. All over the planet, nations are feverishly trying to secure sufficient supplies of natural gas for the months ahead. Normally there is a spike of demand in the middle of winter, but at this moment we are nowhere close to that point. In fact, summer just officially ended a couple of weeks ago.

So if things are this bad already, what are we going to be facing in a few months? At the same time, a very serious shortage of coal is pushing prices up to absolutely absurd levels… "Australia’s Newcastle thermal coal, a global benchmark, is trading at $202 a metric ton, three times higher than at the end of 2019. Global production of coal, which generates around 40% of the world’s electricity, is about 5% below pre-pandemic levels.

In Europe, the rising prices for coal and other energy resources have hit factory output and driven household energy bills higher. Major coal importers in Asia, including Japan and South Korea, are jostling to secure supplies."

We have never seen an energy crisis this severe in modern times, and it is already having a dramatic impact on manufacturing in China… "In recent weeks, however, officials have begun a much more aggressive rationing program (Figure 1), with factories in much of Guangdong now seeing only 1-2 days per week of power use allowed. Similar situations are reportedly occurring in Jiangsu, Hubei, and Fujian provinces, all major manufacturing regions. As just one example, one of my US-based import customers has reported that a key supplier in Jiangsu is down to a single day per week of power availability. Limited-but-expanded power rationing is also occurring in Zhejiang, Shandong, Liaoning, and other important heavy industrial, chemical, and energy-product hubs."

So what does this mean? It means that China is going to be exporting a lot less stuff to us, and so our store shelves will continue to get barer and barer. For more than a decade I have been warning that we should have never allowed ourselves to become so dependent on Chinese manufacturing. But of course most people didn’t want to listen to “alarmists” like me. Unfortunately, the truth is now evident to everyone.

The “new normal” is here, and it is going to be exceedingly painful. Whatever you think that you are going to need for the winter months, go out and get it now. The shortages are just beginning, and the global economy will never be the same after this."

Thursday, October 7, 2021

“Markets Fueled By Free Money; Collapse Of Everything; Tesla Leaves California; Used Car Insanity”

Jeremiah Babe, PM 10/7/21:
“Markets Fueled By Free Money; Collapse Of Everything;
 Tesla Leaves California; Used Car Insanity”

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Slide your telescope just east of the Lagoon Nebula to find this alluring field of view in the rich starfields of the constellation Sagittarius toward the central Milky Way. Of course the Lagoon nebula is also known as M8, the eighth object listed in Charles Messier's famous catalog of bright nebulae and star clusters. 
Click image for larger size.
Close on the sky but slightly fainter than M8, this complex of nebulae was left out of Messier's list though. It contains obscuring dust, striking red emission and blue reflection nebulae of star-forming region NGC 6559 at right. Like M8, NGC 6559 is located about 5,000 light-years away along the edge of a large molecular cloud. At that distance, this telescopic frame nearly 3 full moons wide would span about 130 light-years."

"How It Really Is: We..."

 

"America has a Shortage of Everything - Get Used To It"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, PM 10/7/21:
"America has a Shortage of Everything - Get Used To It"
"It does not matter what industry you are in. There are shortages of everything. From food, fuel to daily supplies it affects all of us. America is just like so many other countries where we have a shortage of everything."

Gerald Celente, "Trends in The News Live"

Gerald Celente, 10/7/21:
"Dragflaltion: Inflation Is Up, Interest Rates Up, Economy Goes Down"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

The Daily "Near You?"

Yerington, Nevada, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Free Download: Jiddu Krishnamurti, 'The Book of Life'”

"You must understand the whole of life, not just one little part of it.
That is why you must read, that is why you must look at the skies,
that is why you must sing and dance,
and write poems and suffer and understand, for all that is life."
- Jiddu Krishnamurti
Freely download “The Book of Life”, by Jiddu Krishnamurti, here:

"Is It Any Wonder..."

"Thomas Edison said in all seriousness: "There is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the labor of thinking" - if we bother with facts at all, we hunt like bird dogs after the facts that bolster up what we already think - and ignore all the others! We want only the facts that justify our acts - the facts that fit in conveniently with our wishful thinking and justify our preconceived prejudices. As Andre Maurois put it: "Everything that is in agreement with our personal desires seems true. Everything that is not puts us into a rage." Is it any wonder, then, that we find it so hard to get at the answers to our problems? Wouldn't we have the same trouble trying to solve a second-grade arithmetic problem, if we went ahead on the assumption that two plus two equals five? Yet there are a lot of people in this world who make life a hell for themselves and others by insisting that two plus two equals five- or maybe five hundred!"
- Dale Carnegie

"Foot Finds Can"


"Foot Finds Can"
by Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "The press is reporting this morning that the foot is finally making contact with the can. Here’s Bloomberg: "Senate Closes in on Deal to Pull US Back From Brink of Default." Is that great news, or what? The spending, borrowing, printing, bribing, squandering, corrupting, twisting, distorting, cheating, fouling, and destroying can go on. Hallelujah.

And this week, we’ve been looking at the effect this program has on investors – university endowments, for example. America’s leading colleges are probably the least curious institutions in the country. They are convinced that they have The Truth – diversity, anti-racism, climate control, equality… and ESG (environmental, social, corporate governance) investing. No need to look any further. And so, when their own endowments earn preposterous returns, no one asks any questions.

Or, if… in a fit of admiration… Duke alumni dare to wonder: “Uh… how did you make 10 times more than GDP growth?”… they get the anodyne answers: “Super-smart managers… and alternative investments.” Not quite.

No Genius: As we reported yesterday, Duke was an outlier in 2021, with a 56% return… while the economy is growing at about 5%. On average, university endowments didn’t earn 10 times more than GDP growth… only about half that much. And not with “alternative” investments or genius managers. Here’s the lowdown from InsideHigherED: "College and university endowments posted their strongest annual performance in 35 years, according to new data from Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service reported by Bloomberg.

The median return before fees was 27 percent in the 2021 fiscal year, which ended on June 30. By comparison, U.S. college and university endowments saw a 2.6 percent median return in fiscal year 2020 and a 6 percent median return in fiscal year 2019. College endowments of at least $500 million – of which there are about 200 – reported a median return of 34 percent in fiscal 2021, higher than the overall average."

There’s no reason to think college endowments will be any better than anyone else at choosing the year’s hot sector or hot stock. And they are so large, they are very unlikely to outperform… as a group.

The Nasdaq rose from 9,875 at the end of June 2020 to 14,500 at the end of June 2021 (a fiscal year for the endowments). That’s a 47% increase, considerably more than the median endowment fund return of 27%. The Dow, meanwhile, went from 25,600 to 34,300. That’s a 34% increase. And the S&P 500 went from 3,050 to 4,300 – a 40% increase. In other words, with a median gain of 27%, the endowment managers underperformed. No “alternatives” or geniuses were needed.

Rigged Game: But wait… This is where it gets interesting. How could the entire capital market grow so much faster than the economy that supports it? In a healthy economy, one company may do better… another may do worse. But one’s sales are another’s profits. One’s costs are another’s revenues. One month may be strong. Another may be weak. Profits may accumulate in a boom year… but dissipate in the next bust. Overall, they can’t do much better than the economy itself – because they are the economy.

Let’s say we have a banana stand. And let’s say we make a profit of $1,000 a year. We could sell our banana stand to someone for… say… $10,000. The buyer would be getting it at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10. Very reasonable. And he could expect to get a 10% annual return on his investment. The next year, he might see his returns go up to $1,050 – a 5% increase. Then, he could expect to sell the enterprise to someone else for, maybe, $10,500 – a 5% increase. Not a 30% increase.

So, if these endowment funds were investing in America’s capital structure… in the banana stands that produce goods and provide services… they should expect growth equal to GDP… and no more. And yet, last year, they and other investors did at least five times better.

The question won’t be raised at meetings of university endowment boards… nor in the U.S. Treasury Department… nor at the Federal Reserve… nor in the financial press. So we’ll raise it here: How come? And here we propose an answer: They are not really “investing” at all. They are just gambling… “taking” not “making,” in a zero-sum game… and counting on the Fed to rig it for them.

Who’s the Loser? But this hypothesis only introduces more puzzlement. If they are winning so much… who is losing? Who’s on the other side of the trade? Obviously, they can’t be taking their winnings from each other, because we’re talking about the median return for the whole group. And the economy itself didn’t produce the extra wealth; it grew only by about 5%, while the funds added 27%.

So who’s the pigeon? And wait a cotton-pickin’ minute. Aren’t these the same universities that are committed to ESG – environmental, social, corporate governance – and are willing to sacrifice some investment returns in order to promote their political agenda? And now, they’re gaining wealth five times faster than the common working man’s wage increases.

Oh dear, Dear Reader… have you jumped ahead of us again? Is it possible that they are taking the money from the downtrodden masses, making fools of the very people they pretend to care so much about? Let’s look at it tomorrow and try to figure out what is going on."
Related, 10/7/21:

"How It Really Is"

"Why Shortages Are Permanent: Global Supply Shortages Make Fantastic Financial Sense"

"Why Shortages Are Permanent: Global Supply 
Shortages Make Fantastic Financial Sense"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"Global corporations didn't go to all the effort to establish quasi-monopolies and cartels for our convenience - they did it to ensure reliably large profits from control and scarcity. Not all scarcities are artificial, i.e. the result of cartels limiting supply to keep prices high; many scarcities are real, and many of these scarcities can be traced back to the stripping out of redundancy/multiple suppliers of industrial essentials to streamline efficiency and eliminate competition.

Recall that competition and abundance are anathema to profits. Wide open competition and structural abundance are the least conducive setting for generating reliably ample profits, while quasi-monopolies and cartels that control scarce supplies are the ideal profit-generating machines.

The incentives to expand the number of suppliers, i.e. increase competition, are effectively zero. America's corporations spent $11 trillion buying back their own stocks over the past decade; that's equal to the combined GDP of Japan, Germany and Italy. If adding new suppliers to the global supply chain were profitable, some of that $11 trillion would have exploited those vast profits.

The financial reality is attempting to compete with an established cartel that has captured regulatory and political mechanisms is a foolhardy waste of capital. If firing up a new supplier of essential solvents, etc. was so captivatingly profitable, the why wouldn't Google and Apple take a slice of their billions in cash and go make some easy money?

The barriers to entry are high and the markets are limited. A great many specialty lubricants, solvents, alloys, wires, etc. are essential to the manufacture of all the consumer and industrial products that are sourced globally, but the markets are narrow: manufacturers need X amount of a specialty solvent, not 10X.

Back in the good old days before globalization and financialization conquered the world, corporations lined up three reliable suppliers for every critical component, as this redundancy alleviated supply chain chokeholds. But to keep those three suppliers in business, you need to spread the order book among all three. Nobody will keep a facility open if it's only used occasionally when the primary supplier runs into a spot of bother.

And so now we're all seated at the banquet of consequences flowing from stripping out redundancy and competition, and ceding control of supply chains to quasi-monopolies and cartels. Scarcities are their source of profits, and since it makes zero financial sense to spend a fortune building a plant to make solvents, lubricants, alloys, etc. in limited quantities in markets dominated by quasi-monopolies and cartels, shortages are a permanent feature of the 21st century global economy.

The era of abundance was only a short-lived artifact of the initial boost phase of globalization and financialization; now that the consolidation is complete, shortages make fantastic financial sense.

By all means thank Corporate America for squandering $11 trillion to further enrich the top 0.1% and insiders. Alas, there was no better use for all those trillions than further enriching the already-super-rich."

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 10/7/21"

 Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/7/21:
"This Stock Market Will Crash On A Massive Scale - But Not Yet"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/7/21:
"All Eyes On The MMRI: Important Updates"
Economy Related:

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

"Prepare For Food Shortages, Get Food Now; Grocery Store Chaos Coming; Economy Shattered"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/6/21:
"Prepare For Food Shortages, Get Food Now; 
Grocery Store Chaos Coming; Economy Shattered"

"It’s Better To Be Ready Than to Get Ready - Follow the Economic Warning Signs"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, PM 10/6/21:
"It’s Better To Be Ready Than to Get Ready - 
Follow the Economic Warning Signs"
"There are constant challenges in business and our economy. Are you ready for what is coming? Now is the time to be prepared TARIg it’s better to be ready than to have to get ready."

Musical Interlude: Jason Mraz, "I Won't Give Up"

Full screen recommended.
Jason Mraz, "I Won't Give Up"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Where do the dark streams of dust in the Orion Nebula originate? This part of the Orion Molecular Cloud Complex, M43, is the often imaged but rarely mentioned neighbor of the more famous M42. M42, seen in part to the upper right, includes many bright stars from the Trapezium star cluster. 
Click image for larger size.
M43 is itself a star forming region that displays intricately-laced streams of dark dust - although it is really composed mostly of glowing hydrogen gas. The entire Orion field is located about 1600 light years away. Opaque to visible light, the picturesque dark dust is created in the outer atmosphere of massive cool stars and expelled by strong outer winds of protons and electrons."

"Who Has Put Me Here?"

"The eternal silence of infinite spaces frightens me. Why now rather than then? Who has put me here? By whose order and direction have this place and time have been ascribed to me? We travel in a vast sphere, always drifting in the uncertain, pulled from one side to another. Whenever we find a fixed point to attach and to fasten ourselves, it shifts and leaves us; and if we follow it, it eludes our grasp, slips past us, and vanishes for ever. Nothing stays for us. This is our natural condition, most contrary to our inclination; we burn with desires to find solid ground and an ultimate and solid foundation for building a tower reaching to the Infinite. But always these bases crack, and the earth obstinately opens up into abysses. We are infinitely removed from comprehending the extremes, since the end of things and their beginning are hopelessly hidden from us in an encapsulated secret; we are equally incapable of seeing the Nothing from which we were made, and the Infinite in which we are swallowed up."
- Blaise Pascal

“Some Things You Need To Know”

“Some Things You Need To Know”
by Marc Chernoff

“I know you’re reading this. And I want you to know I’m writing this for you. Others will be confused. They will think I’m writing this for them. But I’m not. This one’s for you.

I want you to know that life is not easy. Every day is an unpredictable challenge. Some days it can be difficult to simply get out of bed in the morning. To face reality and put on that smile. But I want you to know, your smile has kept me going on more days than I can count. Never forget that, even through the toughest times, you are incredible. You really are. So smile more often. You have so many reasons to. Time and again, my reason is you.

You won’t always be perfect. Neither will I. Because nobody is perfect, and nobody deserves to be perfect. Nobody has it easy, everybody has issues. You will never know exactly what I’m going through. And I will never know exactly what you’re going through. We are all fighting our own unique war. But we are fighting through it simultaneously, together.

Whenever somebody discredits you, and tells you that you can’t do something, keep in mind that they are speaking from within the boundaries of their own limitations. Ignore them. Don’t give in. In this crazy world that’s trying to make you like everyone else, find the courage to keep being your awesome self. And when they laugh at you for being different, laugh back at them for being the same.

Remember, our courage doesn’t always roar aloud. Sometimes it’s the quiet voice at the end of the day whispering, “I will try again tomorrow.” So stand strong. Things turn out best for people who make the best out of the way things turn out. And I am committed to making the best of it along with you.”

"An Industry Insider Just Revealed What Is Really Behind The Shortages At Our Local Supermarkets"

Full screen recommended.
"An Industry Insider Just Revealed What Is Really
Behind The Shortages At Our Local Supermarkets"
by Epic Economist

"Grocery stores across the US are now suffering with depleted inventories and empty shelves as they experience the worst supply chain crisis in decades. But the mainstream media coverage of this issue isn't telling us the whole truth. They're trying to convince us that what we have been witnessing at the stores recently is just a 'temporary' disruption that can be easily fixed and that will soon be gone. However, that's not what industry experts have been saying. In recent weeks, many of them came forward to warn that shortages and supply chain bottlenecks are likely to intensify as the holiday shopping season approaches.

With that in mind, today, we decided to expose what is really behind the shortages at our local supermarkets. In a recent article, writer and economic analyst Michael Snyder published an e-mail he received from an industry insider who told his side of the story. The source, who runs a grocery store in Maine, highlights that things are going from bad to worse. In fact, he even stressed that he has never seen "anything close to what is happening now”. Some of the information he shared is truly alarming and we should all spare a moment to hear it. "Supply issues are real!," he says. "My supplier has limited us on orders for about a month now - limiting the physical number of cases we can order".

His supplier's biggest issue is the unprecedented worker shortage in their warehouse. They're extremely short in order pickers and truck drivers. But it's the same story everywhere. All suppliers are experiencing similar difficulties to find new employees. As a consequence, many everyday items, such as energy drinks, soft drinks, bottled water, juices, fresh produce, and cleaning products are in short supply, he revealed. The quality of the fruits and vegetables arriving at his store is declining. In contrast, his meat supply was still "fair" at the time he wrote the e-mail, but pricing was extremely high. "Shockingly high to me. The middle class is slowly being destroyed with these prices hikes," the insider wrote.

"It’s frustrating. I'm self-employed for 25 years and worked for Kroger for 25 years before that, so I'm in this business for 50-51 years and have never seen anything close to what is happening now. I come to work every day just holding my breath for what is next for our business and the 35 people I employ here in Maine," the source concludes. Even though this grocery store owner has tried to order smaller quantities, his suppliers are still unable to fulfill them.

The situation he's going through is the same one faced by millions of small business owners all around the country. But even big grocery chains are struggling with delivery delays, dwindling inventories, and a shortage of workers. At this moment, supply shortages are widespread, and this is the worst that they have been since the onset of the health crisis. Sadly, what industry specialists have been telling us is that this is going to become the “new normal”.

At the same time, the extraordinary rise in food prices is becoming a threat for low-income households, who are having to spend a larger share of their monthly budgets just to have enough to eat on their tables. Meat prices are skyrocketing, and they have been rising faster than most other grocery prices. Meat, poultry, fish, and eggs are currently up 5.9 percent compared to last year, and over 15 percent higher than 2019 prices. We are now being told to brace ourselves for more price spikes in the coming months. Sysco, one of the nation’s biggest food distributors, reported food inflation levels of 10.2 percent on its most recent quarterly report, all of those increases are being passed along to customers in turn.

On the other hand, as shortages become more extensive, retailers have started to reimplement limits. Last Thursday, Costco said it was reinstating "limits on purchases of toilet paper, paper towels, and bottled water". Although they don't call it “rationing”, that is essentially what it is. Joining a long list of retailers, Costco is sounding the alarm about climbing shipping prices and worsening supply chain issues.

All things considered, it's safe to say that neither inflation nor shortages are going to be "temporary". At the beginning of the year, many were expecting the economy to be booming at this point, but instead what we have is huge price hikes and very painful shortages that are likely to persist for another year or two. Our economic infrastructure is being shaken to the core as events have begun to slide out of control. Beware of the next events because it won't take too much for us to be facing a full-blown avalanche."

The Daily "Near You?"

Grand Prairie, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Memento Mori"

"Memento Mori"
by Ryan Holiday

"Were all the geniuses of history to focus on this single theme, they could never fully express their bafflement at the darkness of the human mind. No person hands out their money to passersby, but to how many do each of us hand out our lives! We're tight-fisted with property and money, yet think too little of wasting time, the one thing about which we should all be the toughest misers."  - Seneca

Born with a chronic illness that loomed large throughout his life, Seneca was constantly thinking about and writing about the final act of life. "Let us prepare our minds as if we'd come to the very end of life," he said. "Let us postpone nothing. Let us balance life's books each day. The one who puts the finishing touches on their life each day is never short of time."

Most interestingly, he quibbled with the idea that death was something that lay ahead of us in the uncertain future. "This is our big mistake," Seneca wrote, "to think we look forward to death. Most of death is already gone. Whatever time has passed is owned by death." That was Seneca's great insight - that we are dying every day and no day, once dead, can be revived.

So we should listen to the command that Marcus gave himself. He wrote,"Concentrate every minute like a Roman on doing what's in front of you with precise and genuine seriousness, tenderly, willingly, with justice. And on freeing yourself from all other distractions." The key to this kind of concentration? "Do everything as if it were the last thing you were doing in your life."

That's the power of Memento Mori - of meditating on your mortality. It isn't about being morbid or making you scared. It's about giving you power. It's to inspire, to motivate, to clarify, to concentrate like a Roman on the thing in front of you. Because it may well be the last thing you do in your life.

The Stoics were philosophers, but more than that they were doers. They didn't have room for big words or big ideas, just stuff that made you better right here, right now. As Marcus Aurelius said: "Justice, honesty, self-control, courage, don't make room for anything but it - for anything that might lead you astray, tempt you off the road, and leave you unable to devote yourself completely to achieving the goodness that is uniquely yours."

The Poet: Rolf Jacobsen, "When They Sleep"

"When They Sleep"

"All people are children when they sleep.
There's no war in them then.
They open their hands and breathe
in that quiet rhythm heaven has given them.
They pucker their lips like small children
and open their hands halfway,
soldiers and statesmen, servants and masters.
The stars stand guard
and a haze veils the sky,
a few hours when no one will do anybody harm.
If only we could speak to one another then
when our hearts are half-open flowers.
Words like golden bees
would drift in.
God, teach me the language of sleep."

- Rolf Jacobsen,
"The Roads Have Come to an End Now"

"Albanian Proverb"

 

"How It Really Is"

 

Gerald Celente, "The Vax Mandates are a Violation of Our Rights, Judge Napolitano Provides the Legal Facts"

Gerald Celente, "The Trends Journal"
"The Vax Mandates are a Violation of Our Rights, 
Judge Napolitano Provides the Legal Facts"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Gregory Mannarino," AM/PM 10/6/21"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/6/21:
"What Will Happen, THEORETICALLY, If The US Defaults On Its Debt?"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/6/21:
"Must Watch: The FED Will Buy All Defaulted Debt"
Economy related:

"This Is Such A Dangerous Time In Our History"

"This Is Such A Dangerous Time In Our History"
by Michael Snyder

"If you feel like global events are about to hit a dramatic turning point, you are definitely not alone. Lately, I have been hearing from so many people that are feeling such a sense of dread about the days that are ahead of us. It kinds of reminds me of the waning days of 2019. If you go back and review my articles and my interviews from that period, you will see that I repeatedly warned that I had such a bad feeling about 2020. At the time, that didn’t make a lot of sense to some people, because life was still relatively normal. But then the COVID pandemic came along and the world went completely nuts. Well, now I am sensing another huge wave of trouble, and countless others are feeling the exact same way.

Normally, I tend to focus my articles on things that just happened in the news. But today I want to talk about the bigger picture because we have reached such a dangerous time in our history. The events of the past couple of years have put us on a very alarming trajectory, and I believe that we are rapidly approaching a point of no return.

There are still a lot of people out there that believe that some sort of a magic solution will suddenly be found and life will revert to normal. Sadly, that isn’t going to happen. Nobody has a “silver bullet”, and men on white horses are not going to come riding in to save us.

At this moment, the stage is being set for so many of the things that I warned about in "Lost Prophecies" and "7 Year Apocalypse."  Great natural disasters are occurring all over the planet, extreme weather events are playing havoc with worldwide crop production, global hunger is on the rise, we are facing a supply chain crisis of epic proportions, and I have written numerous articles in recent weeks about the growing shortages that we are witnessing.

Meanwhile, the pandemic continues to rage on, and now we are being told that this virus will be with us indefinitely. Of course many believe that how national governments have responded to the pandemic has been even worse than the pandemic itself. We are seeing civil unrest and mass protests all over the globe as ordinary citizens lash out against the alarming rise of authoritarianism all around us. We have seen so much chaos and death over the past couple of years, and there will be so much more in the years ahead. Millions upon millions of people have already died, but what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

As I discussed a few days ago, this is also a time of wars and rumors of wars. Needless to say, military conflict will take many of our current problems to an entirely new level. Sadly, most Americans have absolutely no idea that we are moving toward war even now.

But most Americans can see the product shortages that are growing all around us. At this point, the supply chain crisis has gotten so bad that the mainstream media can’t stop talking about it. On a very basic level, our economic infrastructure is breaking down, and this is something that is happening all over the world.

Originally we were told that things would be “getting back to normal” by this point, but now we are being told that the shortages are going to be getting even worse in the months ahead. Earlier today, I came across a video in which Glenn Beck detailed why he is extremely concerned about this. I think that Glenn did a really good job of communicating the urgency of the crisis that we are now facing, and I hope that people will share his video with as many people as they can.
There are some that have used the word “hell” to describe the past couple of years, but the truth is that they aren’t even worth comparing to what is still ahead of us.But no matter what comes along, you can get through this.

I have heard from so many people that are scared about what is to come, and it is okay to be honest about our emotions. If you truly understand the bigger picture, the gravity of what we are dealing with will definitely weigh on you. But there is no reason to be afraid. You were born for such a time as this, and you were placed at this specific moment in human history for a reason.

Since I write about such difficult topics, some people out there have suggested that I must be deeply depressed. But the truth is that my wife and I are not depressed at all. We are not on any pills, we don’t have to see any psychologists and we don’t walk around in a state of gloom all the time.

That is because we know who we are, we know where we are going and we understand how the story ends. All of human history has been building up to a grand crescendo, and we get to be here for it. There is no other time in all of human history that I would have rather lived than right here, right now.

But if your life is defined by the system that the elite have established, and if what you care about are the material possessions that the system has provided for you, then the years ahead are going to be exceedingly painful for you. Because the truth is that the system is dying.

Everything that can be shaken will be shaken, and we are going to see horrors that are far beyond what most people would dare to imagine right now. But for those that are living for the things that really matter, this will be an incredibly exciting time to be alive.

If you have not been paying much attention to global events, now is the time for you to wake up. So many of the pieces of the puzzle are coming together simultaneously, and so many of the major things that the watchmen have been warning about are on the verge of taking place. I will have so much more to say about all of this in the days ahead. Be strong and keep the fire burning, because the times that are approaching are going to greatly challenge all of us."

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal: Life Was Hard, They Made It Even Harder"

Full screen recommended.
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal,
Very Strong Language Alert!
"Trends Journal: Life Was Hard, They Made It Even Harder"

"Panic Buying Frenzy Sweeps Across China: A Rush To Hoard Energy Supplies Has Begun"

Full screen recommended.
"Panic Buying Frenzy Sweeps Across China: 
A Rush To Hoard Energy Supplies Has Begun"
by Epic Economist

"Sky-high prices for natural gas and electricity have made the headlines in recent weeks as energy crises started to erupt all over the world. The most menacing of them is taking place in China, where coal stocks hit perilously low levels. Chinese officials warned that China's energy crunch will have greater consequences for the global economy than other energy squeezes now occurring in Europe, South-Eastern Asia, and Africa.

Several Chinese regions have started to conserve energy and issue rationing mandates to factories, ordering plants to halt or significantly reduce production over the next weeks. At least two-thirds of the entire country faced severe blackouts last week as China struggled with the worst power shortages in over a decade. Just this year, energy prices have more than double in China due to soaring electricity demand from factories and lower than expected output from the country’s coal mines.

If China's economy slumps any further this year, the whole global economic rebound can be derailed, and that will lead to even higher inflation in global markets, warn economists. "China’s energy crunch is set to have a rippling effect across the world”, says Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore’s OCBC Bank. The outlook doesn't seem very promising, particularly considering that official government figures released last month indicate that that Chinese factory activity in September dropped to the lowest level since February 2020, when lockdowns crippled the economy.

The unexpected slowdown in factory activity will add further pressure on an economy already facing serious problems in its inflated property sector, mostly in the form of the decaying giant Evergrande. While the property sector accounts for up to 25% of China's GDP, the country's huge tech sector is also experiencing major disruptions as the power outages are forcing widespread factory shutdowns. At this point, shortages are already emerging and hitting stressed global supply chains, with both Apple and Tesla temporarily closed. Other small businesses that play a key role in global manufacturing are recording an output collapse like no other.

This crisis is coming at the worst possible time: just as businesses get ready for the Christmas shopping rush. This means that shortages will not only be seen in China but also on shelves in western countries, including America. Moreover, given the Vice Premier's order, China seems to have made an abrupt policy change regarding its commodity markets approach. Many local reports are stressing the fact that the central government has given state-owned energy companies a directive to secure winter energy supplies "at any and all costs".

However, with commodity inflation already soaring and straining large importers, supply shortages are becoming more and more frequent across the globe. The plan now is to hoard all available supplies no matter the cost, in order to support continued economic growth, particularly due to the threat of a cold winter scenario. This may turn the commodity market upside down. China's rigorous steps to ensure energy supplies are likely to trigger a panic buying spree just as we witnessed early in the health crisis, when consumers depleted inventories of toilet paper and other household items, and more recently, in the UK's ongoing supply chain crisis.

Therefore, "in addition to the speculative interest, the world’s biggest commodity importer is now going on a historic buying spree. As such, this buying is a strong tailwind for oil, as supply certainty trumps price in the near term," as explained by Ryan Fitzmaurice, the senior commodity strategist at Rabobank. Speculators have gigantic piles of money at hand to bid the market even higher, especially knowing that China has every motive to panic buy supplies and central banks have flushed extraordinary amounts of liquidity to fund huge purchases on global financial markets.

"This new policy has the potential to trigger panic buying in physical markets, which will likely spill over into financial markets as institutional money chases returns," Fitzmaurice wrote in a recent note to clients. Sadly, world leaders are just now realizing that, unlike artificially-created money, you cannot print commodities nor artificially create energy supplies. The rules are not the same. The commodity market is volatile and dangerous.

The lack of energy is a life-threatening issue, and that was conclusively demonstrated earlier this year during the Texas power grid collapse. As the price of energy skyrockets, those increased costs will fall disproportionately upon the poorest in society, and those devastating income inequalities will be dramatically exposed as the most millions have to face a painful choice: Heat or Eat.Don't be mistaken, this winter is going to be shocking. Dark clouds are looming on the horizon and the perfect storm is coming for us."