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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Dan, I Allegedly, "This is What Financial Trouble Looks Like"

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Dan, I Allegedly, 11/11/26
"This is What Financial Trouble Looks Like"
"The economy is putting more pressure on American families, and the numbers are getting harder to ignore. Inflation is rising, energy costs are climbing, credit card debt continues to grow, and consumers are borrowing against their homes just to keep up. Eating out has become incredibly expensive, businesses are struggling, and even fast-food value meals aren't delivering much value anymore. Meanwhile, Americans are facing difficult decisions about their finances, spending, debt, and the rising cost of living."
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Adventures With Danno, "People Are Acting Crazy, This Is Ridiculous"

Adventures With Danno, 11/11/26
"People Are Acting Crazy, This Is Ridiculous"
Comments here:

"The American Dream Is Being Crushed: The Cost Of Living Is Spiraling Out Of Control And Millions Of Americans Can No Longer Afford The Basics Of Everyday Life"

by Michael Snyder

"Do you feel stressed out whenever another bill arrives in the mail or another unexpected expense suddenly hits you? If so, you are certainly not alone. All over America, much of the population is living in a constant state of financial stress in 2026. According to a CNBC and SurveyMonkey survey, approximately 63 percent of U.S. adults report living paycheck to paycheck. That figure includes a whopping 81 percent of Americans that make less than $50,000 a year that say that they are living paycheck to paycheck. When you have to constantly watch where every single dollar goes, it can suck the life right out of you. As I discussed in one recent article, 44 percent of Americans now struggle to even afford the most basic necessities. That is nearly half the country. We have been mired in a seemingly endless cost of living crisis for this entire decade, and there is no end in sight. In fact, it appears that it is getting even worse.

On Tuesday, we learned that consumer prices rose even faster than expected last month: "Price increases remained stubbornly high in October as expensive energy prices kept rippling through the US economy, with zero relief in sight for weary American consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent in October month over month, after a 0.6 percent gain in September. The BLS did not release a year-over-year comparison for October 2026 because the agency was unable to gather data one year ago during the 2025 government shutdown – but prices are up about 4 percent over the last 12 months.

Of course the truth is that the cost of living is most definitely not “up about 4 percent over the last 12 months”. It is going up way faster than that. Since 1978, the way that the federal government calculates the rate of inflation has changed over and over again. When federal bureaucrats make these changes, the goal is almost always to make the rate of inflation appear to be lower.

On the official BLS website, they actually have a list of all of the revisions that they have made to the way that the Consumer Price Index is calculated. These are just the changes that we have witnessed since 1978…

ͦ 1978: The fourth comprehensive revision:
ͦ Added a new Consumer Price Index: the CPI for All Urban Consumers, or the CPI-U
ͦ Changed the name of the older CPI to the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or the CPI-W
ͦ  Based weights on a 1972–73 survey of consumer expenditures and the 1970 census
ͦ  Expanded the sample to 85 areas (primary sampling units)
ͦ Increased minimum frequency for obtaining the prices of goods and services (known as “pricing”) from quarterly to bi-monthly
ͦ  Implemented monthly pricing in the five largest areas
ͦ Introduced probability sampling methods at all stages of CPI sampling
ͦ Introduced checklists that define each category of spending to clarify what is included or excluded from an item (See appendix 2.)
ͦ Developed estimates of the CPI’s sampling error and optimal sample allocation to minimize that error
ͦ Began systematic replacement of retail outlets and their item samples between major revisionsImplemented a point-of-purchase survey (POPS)
ͦ Selected retail outlets with probability proportional to consumer spending therein
ͦ Eliminated reliance on outdated secondary-source sampling frames
ͦ Began rotating outlet samples every 5 years
ͦ Began rotating one-fifth of the CPI pricing areas each year

1987: The fifth comprehensive revisionBased weights on the 1982–84 Consumer Expenditure Survey and the 1980 Census
Updated samples of items, outlets, and areas
Began rotating item samples every 5 years
Redesigned the CPI housing survey
Improved sampling, data collection, data processing, and statistical estimation methods
Initiated more efficient sample design and sample allocation
Introduced techniques to make CPI production and calculation more efficient
Introduced rental equivalence concept in January 1983 for the CPI-U and in January 1985 for the CPI-W (Additional information on rental equivalence is available in a factsheet.)
1988: Improved housing estimator to account for aging of the sample housing units
1992: Improved the handling of new models of vehicles and other goods
1994: Improved seasonal adjustment methods
1995: Implemented new sample procedures to prevent overweighting items whose prices are likely to rise
1997: Changes made to hospital servicesInitiated a single hospital services item stratum with a treatment-oriented item definition
Discontinued pricing of the inputs to hospital services
1998: The sixth comprehensive revisionBased weights on the 1993–95 Consumer Expenditure Survey and the 1990 census
Updated geographic and housing samples
Extensively revised item classification system
Implemented new housing index estimation system
Used computer-assisted data collection
Added the Telephone Point-of-Purchase Survey (TPOPS) which allows rotation of outlet and item samples by item category and geographic area, rather than by area alone (this survey was previously conducted in person)
1999: Developed the Consumer Price Index research seriesDeveloped the Consumer Price Index Research Series, which is an estimate of the CPI for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) from 1978 to present that incorporates most of the improvements made over that time span into the entire series
1999: Initiated a new housing survey based on the 1990 censusInitiated a new housing survey based on the 1990 census that estimated price change for owners’ equivalent rent directly from rents (an estimate of the implicit rent owner occupants would have to pay if they were renting their homes)
1999: Began using a geometric mean formula for most basic indexesBegan using a geometric mean formula for most basic indexes that mitigates lower level substitution bias and reflects shifts in consumer spending with item categories as relative price change
1999–2000: Expanded the use of hedonic regression in quality adjustment
2002: Addition of the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) and other changesImplemented biennial weight updates
Implemented 4-year outlet rotation to replace 5-year scheme
Added the C-CPI-U in AugustUses more advanced “superlative” index formula (the Törnqvist formula)
Corrects upper-level substitution bias
2003: Directed replacement of sample items in the personal computer and other categories, to keep samples current
2004: Expanded collection of price data to all business days of the monthExpanded collection of price data to all business days of the month (Before 2004, prices were collected during the first 18 business days of the month for the first 10 months of the year and the first 15 business days for November and December.)
2007: Began publishing indexes to three decimal places (January)
2008: Added CPI-E and published it back to 1982Congress mandated experimental consumer price index for older people (62 years of age and older)
CPI-E has limitations related to the expenditure weights, outlets sampled, items priced, and the prices collected
2010: Began a three-stage effort to improve the housing surveyFirst and second stages used the 2000 census
First stage was a 4-year sample augmentation with a goal of adding 16,000 units, mainly in neighborhoods with seriously depleted renter samples; this data was first used in the rent indexes for July 2010
Second stage was a sample replacement meant to replace the rental units introduced in 1999. The November 2012 CPI was the first that used a new sample from this stage and the May 2016 CPI was the first in which the housing survey sample was drawn entirely from the 2000 census.
The third stage was a regular replacement commencing in 2016 that will end in 2022. It will replace the 2000 census-based sample with one based on the American Community Survey using 2010 Decennial census geography. This stage will continue into the future and, for the first time, the CPI housing survey will have a process that keeps its sample continuously updated.
2018: Geographic revisionIntroduced a new geographic sample based on the 2010 Census
Changed the publication frequency for several local area indexes
Established new local area and aggregate indexes
Introduced census division-level index data
2019: Changes to the CPI establishment frame. Replaced Telephone Point-of-Purchase Survey (TPOPS) as source of retail establishment frame with data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE)Eliminates redundancies and inefficiencies in survey operations and reduces household burden
Use of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages business registry to refine the location and address data from the CE
2020–2022: Expanded use of third-party dataExpanded the use of third-party data sources in the estimation of the CPI, including high-profile projects for gasoline and new vehicles data
2023: Implemented annual weight updates

I know that list is very long. But I have included it for a reason. It is so important to understand that the way that the rate of inflation is calculated today does not even come close to resembling how the rate of inflation was calculated during the Jimmy Carter era. If we did calculate the rate of inflation the exact same way that we did back then, it would be well into double digit territory.

Even the mainstream media is admitting that we are experiencing “high inflation”, and this is putting a tremendous amount of financial stress on most of the U.S. population...High inflation has created severe financial pressures in recent years for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Price hikes are particularly difficult for lower-income Americans because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paychecks on necessities and have less flexibility to save.

When 1978 began, the average price of a pound of ground beef in the United States was hovering around one dollar. Today, the average price of a pound of ground beef in the United States is $6.79. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. The following comes from a Wall Street Journal article entitled “Why High Beef Prices Are Here to Stay”…"Tyson Foods maintenance worker Austin Campbell was checking his email in August for updates on a promotion when instead he saw a message from the company’s chief executive. “Our beef business is operating in a challenging environment due to the historic cattle shortage,” Donnie King, Tyson’s CEO at the time, wrote in an internal email announcing the closure of the Utah facility where Campbell worked. “These supply constraints are likely to persist.”

Of course just about everything at the grocery store has become significantly more expensive. If you go grocery shopping on a regular basis like I do, then you know exactly what I am talking about. 27 percent of Americans are now regularly skipping meals, and Americans are dining out less frequently than they once did… Over the last two years, consumers have dined out less frequently and grown pickier about where they choose to eat, based on data from Black Box Intelligence.

You may have noticed that restaurants are closing down all over the nation. This month, we learned that Outback Steakhouse’s largest U.S. franchisee has been forced to file for bankruptcy… The casual dining industry has suffered another major blow following the bankruptcy filing of Outback Steakhouse’s largest U.S. franchisee after years of soaring costs, declining customer traffic, and mounting debt.

San Diego-based Out West Restaurant Group, also known as Cerca Trova Restaurant Group, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday in Delaware, putting 61 restaurants across five Western states into bankruptcy proceedings. The company’s debt has exploded from $269 million in 2020 to approximately $449 million in 2026, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Fast food chains are being hit really hard as well… Global Midsouth Holding Corp., a franchisee of Checkers and Rally’s, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on October 28, just one day before a scheduled foreclosure auction involving one of its Tennessee restaurant properties, according to TheStreet. The Memphis-based company reported $1.9 million in assets against $1.3 million in liabilities. Revenue fell from $860,000 in 2024 to $800,000 in 2025, underscoring the financial difficulties facing the business.

However, Global Midsouth isn’t the only burger franchisee that went bust. Meritage Hospitality Group, one of Wendy’s largest franchisees, filed for bankruptcy in September after struggling with declining sales, rising beef prices, and mounting financial obligations. If you have a favorite restaurant, I would visit it while you still can, because a lot more restaurants are going to be permanently closing their doors in the months ahead.

U.S. consumers are tapped out, and they are increasingly falling behind on their debts. For example, just consider the huge spike in subprime auto delinquencies that we are currently witnessing… Americans are falling behind on their car payments at levels not seen in nearly a decade, and the situation is becoming increasingly alarming. According to new research from LoanTape, 17.68% of subprime auto loan balances in the securitized pools it examined were at least 30 days delinquent in September 2026, the highest September reading in its dataset dating back to 2017. Another 7% were at least 60 days overdue, compared with 3.43% in September 2019. That means serious delinquencies in this segment have more than doubled from their pre-pandemic level.

When the cost of living goes up, our standard of living goes down. So the fact that the percentage of businesses that plan to raise prices is the highest it has been since July 2022 should deeply alarm all of us… A net 37% of businesses responding to the October National Federation of Independent Business survey reported that they plan to raise prices in the next three months, the highest level since July 2022.

In a desperate attempt to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. At this point, it is being projected that there is “an 87.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike” next month. The Federal Reserve is set to hold its next monetary policy meeting on Dec. 8-9 and policymakers are overwhelmingly expected to hike interest rates in the wake of the October CPI inflation report. The market sees an 87.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike to a new target range of 4% to 4.25%, up from 84% a day ago and 77% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Do you want to know what I think about that? I think that another rate hike would be incredibly foolish. You don’t hike rates when the economy is slowing down. Economic conditions are deteriorating from coast to coast, and large companies are conducting mass layoffs. PepsiCo is one of the latest examples…PepsiCo is cutting about 1,000 jobs across North America as the company tries to turn around lagging sales in its home market.

“We have a clear ambition for PepsiCo North America: to build a stronger, more future-fit business that delivers industry-leading growth,” Ram Krishnan, CEO of PepsiCo North America, wrote in a Monday letter to employees obtained by CNBC. “To do that, we need to be faster, more connected, and more capable, while continuing to invest in growth - behind our people, capabilities and brands.”

The Fed made the same mistake just prior to the Great Recession. They never seem to learn.
Inflation is on the rise because our leaders have been borrowing and spending way too much money and because the wars on the other side of the globe have been driving up energy prices. But those problems are not going to get fixed any time soon, are they?

The middle class in the United States is being systematically eviscerated right in front of our eyes. Every single day more Americans fall into poverty. Every single day more Americans join the ranks of the homeless. Every single day more Americans turn to food banks for help. Every single day millions of Americans are skipping meals because they don’t have enough money. We are in far more trouble than most people realize, and 2027 is going to be such a difficult year."

Bill Bonner, "More Money, More War, More Power"

Click image for larger size.
"Net interest on public debt grew by 11%, or $114 billion, to a total of $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, according to a report published yesterday by the Congressional Budget Office. The chart above shows government spending consistently larger than tax revenues going back 50 years."
"More Money, More War, More Power"
by Bill Bonner

Paris, France - "This is our favorite season in Paris. Yesterday, we walked up the Blvd. Raspail, a light drizzle on our face...and the large leaves of the plane trees wet and slippery beneath our feet. By four o’clock in the afternoon, it was already sinking into gentle darkness. But the shops were lit up, beckoning to passers-by. It was like an impressionist painting, with the bright lights reflected on rain-slick streets.

For many years we’ve owned a bookshop on the Blvd. Raspail, specializing in ancient history and classical, Greek, and Roman literature. The windows there, too, were well lit...showing the latest oeuvres, highlighted by a special, illustrated edition of Ulysses. We stopped in to say hello and then we continued to our rendezvous.

“Paris doesn’t seem to be on fire,” we said to our companion at a small café, just to open the conversation. “No, it’s mostly over at the Place de la Republique and not that impressive.” “Aren’t there going to be more demonstrations today?” “Oh no...they take place on the weekend.” “How about tomorrow; it’s a holiday?” “Are you kidding? The protestors are going to take the day off.”

Back in the USA...Yes, this is where it gets interesting. We draw upon the Washington Post for intel: “I don’t think my Democratic colleagues are going to give any more money to defense unless we agree to give the same or larger amount to domestic spending,” [Sen.] Kennedy told reporters.

Whoa...whoa...whoa...Were his eyes taped shut last week? Was his TV turned off? Didn’t he get the news? The voters want less inflation and less war...not more. But here is the august senator from the Bayou State eager to get together with the Democrats to defy the public by going even further in the direction ‘The People’ have just declared they don’t want to go.

The two problems that stuck in voters’ craws were obvious...and, apparently, easy to fix - inflation and war. The attack on Iran could have been called off. POTUS could have proclaimed victory and moved on.

Neither is inflation a curse of the gods. At least in the beginning, it’s a deliberate policy designed to shrink the burden of US debt...by shrinking the dollar, so that the feds can spend more of them. Instead of making war on the Iranians, Trump could have announced a campaign to wipe out inflation. It wouldn’t have to be a full or immediate success. But cutting deficits, reducing borrowing, and eliminating tariffs would at least be going in the right direction. Moneywise: "Without Trump’s tariffs, goods prices would have dipped, say New York Fed economists - as 71% of Americans say they’ve driven prices up"

Whatever the odds of victory in his war on inflation, the voting public would have been on his side. Instead, Trump threatened more war...and proposed to build an ‘Arc de Trump’ in Washington, a monument to victories that never happened to be built with money that was never earned.

And the news from yesterday tells us that if there were a war on price increases, the smart money would probably bet on inflation. Newsweek: "Price increases did not slow as much as was anticipated in October, according to the latest inflation report from the Department of Labor, with energy and several other consumer costs continuing to drive elevated inflation ahead of the midterm elections. According to Tuesday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October. Ahead of the release, the consensus among analysts had been only a 0.3 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)."

Let’s see. Four tenths of one percent x 12 = 4.8%. To remind you, our guess is that the US is going to suffer a bout of hyperinflation, not just inflation. Our $40 trillion in debt makes steady-state, moderate inflation impossible. As the debt grows, so does the volume of ‘money.’ And so does the interest cost of carrying it, so that more borrowing (and printing) becomes necessary. At that point - about where we are now - the whole scam becomes unsustainable. The inflation tail wags; the poor dog gets smacked against the furniture. Talk about unhappy voters! Let them get a whiff of hyperinflation and then we’ll see some real discontent. But that is still in the future...perhaps years ahead.

You may be wondering if this has anything to do with the question we left you with yesterday. And yes, it does. Why would so many Republicans allow themselves to be swept away in the mid-term elections? Why couldn’t they shift to the ‘peace and prosperity’ policies the voters wanted? Fox: "Conservatives stunned by ‘catastrophic’ midterm blue tsunami, blame Trump’s Iran war, high gas prices."

The ready answer - because they are stupid - is too facile. We have no reason to think that they (with exceptions) are any dumber than anyone else. Like the rest of us, they just respond to the opportunities and threats in front of them. The fuller answer is that people come to think what they must think when they must think it. And both Republicans and Democrats must think that sticking with the formula they both love - more spending, more money, more war, more power - is the way to go. It may not be good for the country...or for its citizens. But those are abstract, remote concerns. More important, they believe it is good for themselves...Even if it risks a peasant revolt. More tomorrow."

"Veterans Day"

"Veterans Day"
by The Bully Pulpit

"In honor of November 11 falling on a Wednesday, we thought it would only be fitting to dedicate today’s #WednesdayWisdom post to veterans and current members of the US Armed Forces. Although we had a lot of choices because Roosevelt talked about veterans and military service frequently, we finally settled on a quotation from an address Theodore Roosevelt gave in San Jose, California, on May 11, 1903. Roosevelt begins the speech by praising the work of the Californians before specifically addressing the American Civil War veterans whom he had met while touring through California.

“I have been greeted here as I have been greeted throughout California by the men of the great Civil War, the veterans to whom we owe it to that there is a country for you and me to be proud of today. They, by their lives, by the record of their deeds, teach us in more practical fashion than it can be taught by any preaching, for they teach us by practice, that in the ultimate analysis the greatness of a nation is to be measured not by the output of its industrial products, not by its material prosperity, not by the products of the farm, factory, business house, but by the products of its citizenship, by the men and women that that nation produces.”

That’s a rather long quotation so we decided to shorten it for today’s #WednesdayWisdom: “[Veterans], by their lives, by the record of their deeds, teach us in more practical fashion than it can be taught by any preaching, for they teach us by practice . . .”

As Roosevelt would convey in countless other written work, what he valued most about soldiers, sailors, aviators, and Marines was their willingness to act. As Roosevelt wrote in his last book, "The Great Adventure", published after the death of his son Quentin during World War I, “Unless men are willing to fight and die for great ideals, including love of country, ideals will vanish, and the world will become one huge sty of materialism.” He also wrote in the next chapter: “In a great war for the right the one great debt owed by the nation is that to the men [and we would add women] who go to the front and pay with their bodies for the faith that is in them.”

A veteran himself, Roosevelt regularly helped veterans however he could when he was in office and mentioned them often in speeches. Moreover, he was incredibly proud of the military service of his four sons in World War I even though he himself didn’t have the opportunity to serve.

Just as Roosevelt would have wanted, we express our appreciation to all our readers who have served in the US military and put their lives on the line. If you’d like, you can comment below with the branch in which you served. We would be delighted to recognize you in that way. Read Roosevelt’s full speech in the digital library here."

Veterans Day 2026"

 

"Veterans Day, Lest We Forget"

"Veterans Day, Lest We Forget"
By John Kass

"We had some fine traditions in America, though many have been pushed aside because they get in the way of modern politics. And when it comes to patriotism on the days when we mourn our war dead, you can feel the media groaning. Patriots and patriarchs aren’t much appreciated these days. They’re now considered just too toxic, too masculine and they’re such a bother.

America once prized merit and competition. Now, though, we prize politics and our cultural institutions strive to make Beta males. There are unintended costs to all of this, including all those young men lost, boys adrift without fathers to guide them, lonely confused boys who rage in the anonymous shadows of social media. Add unfettered access to violent violent video games, unfettered access to internet porn, raised by mothers who resent the fathers who walked away, shaped by anger and social isolation.

Throw in the absence of a spiritual life and the absence of a common morality. Add guns. This stew of rage boils over into murder sprees, in rural areas, in urban centers. We ignore what we feel in our bones to be wrong. We’d rather play our politics instead.

Ultimately the day comes - and it always comes - when some other powerful nation that isn’t obsessed with creating Beta males shows up with its armies. They come to take all that you have and all that you’d ever dreamed of having. They come to take your food, your life, the lives of your children. Your spine. Your hope. Your identity. Everything. And then you don’t have a country. The landless descend into wandering barbarism. They become as beasts of no nation, because their nation is gone.

Don’t think it can’t happen. It happens. It has happened in many other ages. It happened to Thebes. That nation had destroyed the unstoppable superpower and military might of Sparta, but soon Thebes was itself destroyed, all the way down to the scattered, nameless stones, the people dead or sold off in the slave markets. And who and what they were was forgotten. All that was left were scratches on stones bleaching like bones in the sun.

History tells us these stories again and again, if we’d listen. History warns of what happens to nations that weaken themselves and abandon their own borders, prizing sensitivity and men without chests above virtue.

A culture becoming fragile is awash with tears, but it becomes dry, like pottery. It cracks. And as the ages forget the names, history smirks. When the people are threatened, with the people desperate and frightened, it is then that soldiers are appreciated, welcomed and needed. The armed forces, forming that thin line between civilization and chaos are honored for a time. Though eventually, if they’re successful in defense, they are inevitably forgotten, again. All soldiers throughout history have understood this dynamic, especially in free, prosperous nations like ours.

Our war dead didn’t risk or lose their lives to be praised and petted with flowery words. They knew they were led to slaughter by fine words from the double-tongues about great honor and great sacrifice. But they also knew this: They had a job to do, protecting our liberty and our nation with their bodies and blood. I suppose they hoped, as Americans, that we would live up to our half of the bargain and not dishonor the freedom they’d given to us, that was bought with their lives.

Traditions are an important means for a people trying to stave off cultural betrayal. This is why traditions are often targeted by agents of change. The old traditions remind us who we are, what we were, reminding us of our ideal selves, of virtue lost to time and what we call progress.

Veterans Day is when we mourn the fallen of the United States Armed Forces who died for our liberty. And because it is Veterans Day, not burger and beer day, not sports day, not play video games day, not chips and dip day, there is one tradition I hope we try our best to keep. It involves us taking time out to think hard and long about a soldier’s poem and the poppies, row on row.

“In Flanders Fields” is that soldier’s poem, written in World War I by Col. John McCrae, a man who’d seen the devastation of war, and hopelessness. Yet with clear eyes and a clean heart he wrote of poppy blossoms as rebirth of hope, those bright orange/red papery thin blossoms, as delicate as dreams, waving in the breeze over the freshly dug graves of the dead.

The scene was Ypres, Belgium at a farm converted to a military hospital, where McCrae was an Army doctor, doctor, dealing with pain and death and disease. Flanders Fields is particularly tragic. The political leadership had led their citizens into hell, and still the citizen soldiers marched toward death and the trenches and the barbed wire, and the gas.

My mother, 92 years old and born of the United Kingdom, hasn’t forgotten. She was born in Guelph, Ontario, the town where Col. McCrae is from. She knew his family. They all knew of the McCraes, but they did not treat them as celebrities. Instead, they respected them. My mom would put a book of his poetry on the breakfast table when my sons were little boys, so that we’d remember as we taught the boys. And that is how traditions are maintained.

And my friend Bill Gritsonis, a former soldier of the U.S. Army and member of the American Legion Hellenic Post 343 hasn’t forgotten. The entire American Legion hasn’t forgotten. The legion remembers the poem and the poppy, and members hand out poppies to help commemorate Veterans Day. “We’d hand out the poppies around City Hall,” he said. “Some of the veterans who survived are so very old. They’re still holding on. We have to do this for them, for us, for our kids, for our country. We just can’t forget.”

On this Veterans Day, when too many of us are thinking of grilling meat and drinking beer and staring at ballgames with sports announcer talking of the loss of a game as if it is death. American Legion posts and Veterans of Foreign Wars and many other groups will attend and participate in ceremonies of somber remembrance and mourning.

Some will be at parades in small towns. Or in quiet gatherings in cemeteries. They’ll bow their heads as a bugler plays “Taps” in a town square, or as the notes from the horns echo on the gravestones in great national cemeteries.

American Legion Hellenic Post 343 plans on being at Elmwood Cemetery, in River Grove, Il., as they have for years, since the 2011 dedication of the Hellenic American Veterans Memorial that honors Greeks who served. “This began way before my time, with others, the group as a whole, Hellenic Post 343 bought the land at Elmwood Cemetery, raised the funds,” Gritsonis said. “The Scouts remember. Our former commander, Anastasios “Steve” Betzelos, he’s 98 and a half. He’s going to try to make it.”
Gritsonis isn’t looking for a mention. He’s not like that. Once a top soldier, he doesn’t seek glory in the words of others. He’d rather that I write around his name. But he and other former U.S. Armed Service Personnel and those on active duty will remember. Why? Once you learn about Flanders Fields, once you read the poem, it sears. It is difficult to forget.

And perhaps because we all come from someplace else. We’re Americans. And whatever our ethnicity or creed, we’re bound together by the ideas that maintain our liberty. They’re written in the Constitution of the United States and The Bill of Rights added to the Constitution by wise and great men, that form a nation that is still the last, best hope of mankind on earth.

Some old soldiers will be asked about Col. McCrae’s poem and the poppies on the graves. I hope they’re asked about it. You might want to print this poem out, take it with you to the cemetery, or a parade, or a lonely grave. You might leave a copy of the poem on a picnic table, as others stuff their faces and guzzle beers without a thought of the Americans who gave everything for them. I don’t mean to shake it at them as if it’s some kind of dare. We’ve had too much of that on all sides.

Politicians and their angry mouthpieces are waging wars of words right now over what to do in the aftermath of mass shootings. The way they talk, they’re all about winning some kind of advantage, hoping to crush their political opponents. It’s as if their words were political tomahawks fashioned from the bones of the dead children from that school in Iran. The dead children become the pointed tips of their rhetorical spears.

And others wage wars of words over the war in Ukraine, the same voices that frightened the nation about those weapons of mass destruction that couldn’t be found in Iraq, the same voices that argued for that war. The same voices that assured us that Western-style democracy could be imposed on people with no idea or appreciation for our democratic traditions. These are same voices that told us not to worry about the rise of the American Surveillance State.

And all these barking dogs on all sides sound as if they have a deep faith, not in God, but in themselves, and their own special talents. The anonymous life on social media has left them unbound. They rage and become their own gods, and for as long as they keep barking, I suppose they feel they’ll never be held accountable. So the barking continues.

When “In Flanders Fields” was first published anonymously, in the English magazine “Punch” on Dec. 15, 1915, it seemed as there was a common purpose to our history. And then as now, the young wanted so desperately to live. It became an anthem. Here is John McCrea’s poem:


There have been other poems. But this, to me, to many of us, on this Memorial Day, when we mourn our war dead, is one of a kind. ‘Lest we forget."
○
"For the Fallen"
 
"With proud thanksgiving, a mother for her children,
England mourns for her dead across the sea.
Flesh of her flesh they were, spirit of her spirit,
Fallen in the cause of the free.

Solemn the drums thrill; Death august and royal 
Sings sorrow up into immortal spheres,
There is music in the midst of desolation
And a glory that shines upon our tears.

They went with songs to the battle, they were young,
Straight of limb, true of eye, steady and aglow.
They were staunch to the end against odds uncounted;
They fell with their faces to the foe.

They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old: 
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.

They mingle not with their laughing comrades again; 
They sit no more at familiar tables of home;
They have no lot in our labour of the day-time;
They sleep beyond England's foam.

But where our desires are and our hopes profound, 
Felt as a well-spring that is hidden from sight,
To the innermost heart of their own land they are known
As the stars are known to the Night;

As the stars that shall be bright when we are dust, 
Moving in marches upon the heavenly plain;
As the stars that are starry in the time of our darkness, 
To the end, to the end, they remain."

- Laurence Binyon
o
- CP, Veteran, United States Marine Corps
Semper fi!


Tuesday, November 10, 2026

"The Leak That Arrived On Cue"

"The Leak That Arrived On Cue"
by Larry C. Johnson

"In the intelligence business, timing is everything. On February 5, 2026, Finland’s National Defense University, which is hardly a Kremlin front, posted a paper by Alexander Grable titled “Irretrievable Losses: Casualties in the Russo-Ukraine War (2022–present).” Grable concluded that Ukraine’s dead far outnumber Russia’s and that Kyiv is losing the war of attrition. In polite Western company, that is heresy.

The paper was presented at the university’s Russia Seminar a week later. It was folded into the seminar’s proceedings volume this fall and began circulating widely in late October. Then, right on cue, the cavalry arrived. Two hacker groups announced they had breached Rosstat, Russia’s state statistics agency, and come away with numbers showing between 393,881 and 450,100 Russian dead. The Moscow Times and Euronews ran the story on November 8. Narrative restored. Everyone can relax.

I don’t relax that easily. I spent enough years at the CIA to know what a planted story smells like. This one smells. But before I get to the leak, let me get to something the casualty accountants keep leaving out of their spreadsheets: who has been shooting more.

The math nobody wants to do: Weapons cause casualties, so a casualty estimate that ignores the weapons is guesswork. In this war, Russia has held a lopsided edge in nearly every category that kills soldiers: artillery, mortars, missiles and FAB glide bombs. For most of the war it also led in drones.

Start with artillery. Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, no friend of Moscow, estimates that Russia produced or refurbished about 400,000 rounds in 2022 and 4.5 million in 2024, an elevenfold increase. That same year the United States and Europe together managed about 1.2 million. Then add North Korea: leaked South Korean intelligence, reported in the press last year, put Pyongyang’s deliveries at 12 million rounds of 152mm ammunition. By my count, that adds up to roughly 24 million shells on the Russian side since 2022, against about 7 million for Ukraine. That is better than three to one.

The glide bombs and missiles tell the same story. Ukraine has nothing remotely comparable to Russia’s FAB-500s and FAB-1500s fitted with wing kits, dropped by the thousands on Ukrainian positions from beyond the reach of air defenses.

Timing matters here too. Artillery was the main killer at the start of the war, causing roughly 80 percent of casualties, and that is exactly when Russia’s lead in shells was widest. Drones did not overtake artillery until 2024. The widely quoted estimate that drones cause 70 to 80 percent of battlefield casualties dates from 2025, not from 2022. Kyiv now insists it outproduces Russia in FPV drones. Maybe so. But even a Ukrainian official has conceded that Ukraine was far from parity with Russia in strike drones through the first half of 2025.

The drone race is also being fought at the factory. Russia has repeatedly hit Ukrainian drone production: assembly sites around Kyiv for the Liutyi long-range drone, industrial zones in Kharkiv and Dnipro that make guidance and communications parts, and in October a plant belonging to the manufacturer General Chereshnya. Ukraine has hit back, striking the Atlant Aero drone plant in Taganrog three times between January and April and repeatedly targeting the Alabuga zone in Tatarstan. Yet Russian output keeps climbing. By Ukraine’s own intelligence estimates, Russian drone production in April was up 117 percent from a year earlier, and Moscow plans to build 7.3 million FPV drones this year. Kyiv’s raids have not bent that curve.

The standard Western reply is that attackers lose more men than defenders, and Russia has been attacking. That rule of thumb assumes both sides can shoot back at roughly the same rate. When one side fires three or four shells for every one it receives, the rule goes out the window. Defending under that kind of fire is how armies get ground down.

What Grable actually found: Grable worked from amputations, which is a clever approach because amputees are harder to hide than the dead. He applied historical ratios of deaths to amputations to the amputation counts for each side. For Ukraine, 93,566 to 120,000 amputations yield an estimate of 403,269 to 517,200 dead by November 2024. He also cites body exchanges in which Ukraine got back about 12.5 of its dead for every Russian returned.

Grable also puts Russian dead at about 35,264 by mid-2024. I’ll be candid: that figure is too low. It sits below the number of Russian dead that Mediazona and BBC Russian had already identified by name at that point. His Vietnam-derived multiplier for Russia doesn’t hold up, and his critics are right to hammer it.

But notice what the critics do next. They take one weak number and use it to throw out the whole paper, including the half that matches the firepower. If Russia has been firing three or four times as much ordnance, Ukrainian dead running several times higher than Russian dead is not a wild claim. It is what the physics predicts. Grable’s Ukrainian estimate fits the weight of fire. That is the part that had to be buried.

Consider the source: Now the leak. Look at who delivered it. One group is Silent Crow, which claims about 450,100 Russian dead. The other is the Belarus Cyber Partisans, which claims 393,881. Neither is a neutral archivist. Both are openly at war with Moscow and Minsk, and they say so with pride. We are asked to believe that these partisans pulled 23 terabytes out of Rosstat, sorted it and produced clean totals, all within days. Then Western newsrooms printed the result as “official data.”

Official according to whom? Meduza and Mediazona, which have no love for the Kremlin, say they are still checking whether the data is genuine. Nobody outside the hackers themselves has verified the totals.

The Moscow Times reports that it checked 50 names from the Mediazona list of named Russian dead and found every one in the leaked files. That is supposed to settle it. It settles nothing. The Mediazona list is public. Anyone building a forgery would start by seeding it with names a fact-checker can find. Matching names proves the forger did his homework. It does not prove the totals.

How an influence operation is built: The defenders of the leak have one more argument: the timing is too tight. Grable’s paper went viral on October 26 and 27, and the hacks are dated October 29 and November 1. Nobody, they say, could build a 23-terabyte operation in a week.

That argument assumes the people who counter inconvenient research learn about it from Substack. They don’t. The paper sat in a Finnish government repository from February 5. Anyone working Russia for a Western service, and certainly anyone in the information-warfare shops, had it in hand within days. That gave them eight months, not one week. Public attention is when an operation launches, not when the planning starts.

I worked on this kind of thing at the CIA. My assessment is that this leak has the classic hallmarks of an influence operation. There is a source that cannot be checked, delivered through a cutout with a cause. The material is laundered through outlets that readers trust. It drops just as an unwelcome analysis starts to gain traction. And it comes with a big round number that ends the debate before anyone asks about the weapons. I can’t prove who wrote the script. I have seen enough scripts to recognize one.

The question they’d rather you not ask: Here is the test I’d put to anyone waving the Rosstat numbers. Explain how an army that has been outgunned three or four to one in artillery, with no answer to glide bombs and, until recently, outmatched in drones, somehow lost fewer men than the side doing most of the shooting. If you can’t answer that, a spreadsheet from a hacker collective won’t answer it for you.

Grable got the Russian number wrong. He got the big picture right, and the big picture is what the leak was built to bury. Ukraine is bleeding faster than Russia because Russia has more guns, more shells, more bombs and, for most of this war, more drones. No amount of stolen data changes the ballistics."

My Latest Conversation with a Russian expert regarding the war in Ukraine:

Nima and I discuss Iran’s new underground missile city:
Full screen recommended.

"Alert: US Officials Move To Military Bases! NATO Troops Enter Ukraine! China Encircles Taiwan"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 11/10/26
"Alert: US Officials Move To Military Bases! 
NATO Troops Enter Ukraine! China Encircles Taiwan"
Comments here:

"Finally! Gas Prices Fall Below $4 a Gallon"

Full screen recommended.
Snyder Reports, 11/10/26
"Finally! Gas Prices Fall Below $4 a Gallon"
"As of November 10, 2026, the U.S. national average is $3.97 per gallon. That's down from $4.14 a week ago and $4.36 a month ago. But will prices stay under $4 in 2027? In this video, we break down the 5 reasons gas prices are falling right now - from easing Iran war speculation and Trump comments on military strikes, to refineries finishing maintenance, the switch to cheaper winter blend, falling driving demand, and lower Brent and WTI crude oil prices. We also cover the EIA forecast for 2027: an average of $3.73 per gallon, with Brent crude around $86 a barrel. Then we get into what could reverse this relief - including Strait of Hormuz shipping, Russia-Ukraine, and the major risk: Democrats proposing a higher federal gas tax after January 3rd, 2027 to push EV purchases. Gas prices affect more than your tank. They hit groceries, travel to work, school runs, and everything shipped by truck. If you want to know what this means for your wallet heading into 2027, watch this now."
Comments here:

"Trumpty Dumpty Had a Great Fall...The Crash Heard Around the World"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 11/10/26
"Trumpty Dumpty Had a Great Fall...
The Crash Heard Around the World"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what's next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "Everything Is Going Up, Brace For Impact"

Adventures With Danno, 11/10/26
"Everything Is Going Up, Brace For Impact"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Moody Blues, "Candle Of Life"

Full screen recommended.
Moody Blues, "Candle Of Life"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Sprawling emission nebulae IC 1396 and Sh2-129 mix glowing interstellar gas and dark dust clouds in this 10 degree wide field of view toward the northern constellation Cepheus the King. Energized by its bluish central star IC 1396 (left) is hundreds of light-years across and some 3,000 light-years distant. 
The nebula's intriguing dark shapes include a winding dark cloud popularly known as the Elephant's Trunk below and right of center. Tens of light-years long, it holds the raw raw material for star formation and is known to hide protostars within. Located a similar distance from planet Earth, the bright knots and swept back ridges of emission of Sh2-129 on the right suggest its popular name, the Flying Bat Nebula. Within the Flying Bat, the most recently recognized addition to this royal cosmic zoo is the faint bluish emission from Ou4, the Giant Squid nebula."

"Where the Heart Finds Peace"

Full screen recommended.
"Where the Heart Finds Peace"
"There are places... where happiness was never hiding. It was always there. In the sound of waves touching the shore. In warm hands wrapped around a cup of tea. In quiet mornings. In slow evenings. In someone waiting for you without looking at the clock. Somewhere along the way... we started believing that happiness was something we had to chase. A bigger dream. A better tomorrow. One more achievement. One more destination. But perhaps... happiness has never been waiting at the finish line. Perhaps it has always been walking beside us... asking only to be noticed. This film is a gentle reminder to slow down. To breathe. To look at the people you love. To watch the sea. To hear the wind. To remember that the smallest moments often become the biggest memories. The world still knows how to be beautiful. The question is... can we still see it?"

Native American Elder, "The Truth About God"

Full screen recommended.
Native American Elder, "The Truth About God"
"Native American Elder Speaks the Truth About God explores timeless wisdom about faith, inner peace, purpose, and the deep connection between the human spirit and the Creator. Through powerful storytelling and profound life lessons, this inspiring speech encourages a psychology and mindset shift that helps you overcome fear, ego, anxiety, and emotional suffering. Discover how ancient Native American wisdom can transform your perspective on God, personal growth, emotional healing, and spiritual awareness. If you're searching for motivation, wisdom, and a deeper understanding of life's purpose, this message will leave a lasting impact. Watch until the end to uncover life-changing insights that can reshape the way you think, live, and connect with yourself and others. This speech teaches that true faith begins within. It encourages humility, gratitude, compassion, self-awareness, and trust in a higher purpose while showing how changing your mindset can bring emotional healing, resilience, inner peace, and a more meaningful life."

"King Of The Blues"

Full screen recommended.
Ditto Music,
"King Of The Blues"

The Daily "Near You?"

Pearland, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Discovery at El Tajín in Veracruz Shocked the Whole World"

Full screen recommended.
Ambrose Discovery,
"The Discovery at El Tajín in Veracruz Shocked the Whole World"
"Hidden for centuries in the jungle of northern Veracruz, El Tajín is the ancient city that keeps surprising the people who dig there. In this documentary you'll see how a tobacco inspector stumbled onto the Pyramid of the Niches in 1785, why its 365 niches work like a calendar of the sun, and what a laser survey revealed when it found new ballcourts, bringing the total to 20. You'll learn what the carved panels of the South Ballcourt say about sacrifice, meet 13 Rabbit, the last ruler, and follow the fight to save painted murals damaged by a hurricane and a fire. Finally, you'll discover why the timing of El Tajín's golden age changes the story of ancient Mexico."
Comments here:

"There Are Simply No Answers..."

“How is one to live a moral and compassionate existence when one is fully aware of the blood, the horror inherent in life, when one finds darkness not only in one’s culture but within oneself? If there is a stage at which an individual life becomes truly adult, it must be when one grasps the irony in its unfolding and accepts responsibility for a life lived in the midst of such paradox. One must live in the middle of contradiction, because if all contradiction were eliminated at once life would collapse. There are simply no answers to some of the great pressing questions. You continue to live them out, making your life a worthy expression of leaning into the light.”
- Barry Lopez

"Just For One Day"

"Just For One Day"
by Paul Rosenberg

"Most people fail to appreciate the fresh opportunity that each day brings them. Their programming requires them to snort derisively at any positive description of humanity. After all, the systems of this world are built upon the assumption that mankind is weak, stupid, and generally inadequate to a moral existence. As a result, most people have become addicted to bad news.

Nonetheless every day is a fresh start, a situation created by nature itself. So, please consider this: What if, just once, you got out of bed and imagined that you were a fresh being in the universe? And more than that, a good, creative, potent being. What if you imagined yourself free of obligations and intimidations, charting a fresh course? What if you looked at your life as if it were beginning anew?

Is it an intolerable thought that you should put aside your well-groomed fears, wake up to a blank slate, and hold that position for just one day? And if we can’t allow ourselves this one productive entertainment, what has happened to us?

You Don’t Actually Suck: Our opinions of ourselves are usually out of touch with reality. To prove that, you need only to slow down, clear your mind, and answer a few questions:

Can you remember a moment from your childhood when someone was notably kind or loving toward you? You have at least one, yes? So, in detail, what was it like and how did you feel?

Can you remember a time you stood up for someone who was being unfairly insulted or abused? What exactly did you do, and how did it make you feel?

Can you remember a time when you did something because it was right, even though you knew you’d suffer for it? How did it feel to push through the fear and do it?

Have you ever done something out of nothing but simple, honest benevolence? How did that feel?

Did you answer these questions? Did you relive the experiences a little? You see, you don’t actually suck. You’ve merely been made to believe so… by people and systems who profit from your bad opinion of yourself.

What’s Life For? You are alive, and this life you possess doesn’t have a preset direction; it’s you who choose where to direct it. Our lives have the meaning we give them, and we give them meaning through exercises of will.

You have immense capabilities, but only you can choose to use them. If you spend your entire life reacting to darkness and threat, you’ll never learn to be a potent being. Instead, you’ll stay in a tight little shell, talking about everything bad that happens in the world and seeking more and more bad news because it justifies your shell. Does that sound like a good way to spend a life?

When? Ever? So, when do we pull away from the carnival of bad news? When do we lift up our eyes and consider the radical possibility that we have good things in us? When do we consider our virtues and abilities… and start using them as a first choice?

For most people the answer is “never.” Not once in a complete human lifetime. And that’s tragic. In fact, it’s premature death. Most people aren’t specifically choosing this of course – it’s a choice thrust upon them – but it ends with them never living by their own light. Instead, they find a “doesn’t hurt too badly” groove and plod along until they tip into a grave.

But what if we picked a day and chose to live as if we were wonderful? If you’re so deeply terrified that that will lead to doom, make it your day off or a vacation day. Get up and spend that day as if you were a luminous being. Flatly pretend if you must, but do it for a day. Is that really so evil a concept that you can’t allow it to exist? So, when is it that we choose to wake up and be wonderful, just for one day?

Pick One: Every tomorrow is a new day and a new chance to be wonderful. So pick a day and wake up to a blank slate. Turn away from the knee-jerk objections that ram their way into your mind; they can have the other 364 days. Try being wonderful. Pull out your calendar, pick a month and day, circle it, and then do it. You might like it."

"The Most Honest Three Minutes In Television History"

Strong language alert!
Full screen recommended.
"The Most Honest Three Minutes In Television History"
Comments here:

"The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald"

Gordon Lightfoot, 
"The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald"
by History.com

"On November 10, 1975, the SS Edmund Fitzgerald sinks in Lake Superior, killing all 29 crew members on board. It was the worst single accident in Lake Superior’s history. The ship weighed more than 13,000 tons and was 730 feet long. It was launched in 1958 as the biggest carrier in the Great Lakes and became the first ship to carry more than a million tons of iron ore through the Soo Locks.

On November 9, the Fitzgerald left Superior, Wisconsin, with 26,000 tons of ore heading for Detroit, Michigan. The following afternoon, Ernest McSorely, the captain of the Fitzgerald and a 44-year veteran, contacted the Avafor, another ship traveling on Lake Superior and reported that his ship had encountered “one of the worst seas he had ever been in.” The Fitzgerald had lost its radar equipment and was listing badly to one side.

A couple of hours later, another ship made contact and was told that the Fitzgerald was holding its own. However, minutes afterward, the Fitzgerald disappeared from radar screens. A subsequent investigation showed that the sinking of the Fitzgerald occurred very suddenly; no distress signal was sent and the condition of the lifeboats suggested that little or no attempt was made to abandon the ship.

One possible reason for the wreck is that the Fitzgerald was carrying too much cargo. This made the ship sit low in the water and made it more vulnerable to being overwhelmed by a sudden large wave. The official report also cited the possibility that the hatches to the cargo area may have been faulty, leading to a sudden shift of the cargo that capsized the boat.

The Fitzgerald was eventually found 530 feet below the surface, 17 miles from Whitefish Bay, at the northeastern tip of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. The ship had broken into two parts that were found approximately 150 feet apart. As there were no survivors among the 29 crewmembers, there will likely never be a definitive explanation of the Fitzgerald‘s sinking.

The Fitzgerald‘s sinking was the worst wreck in the Great Lakes since November 29, 1966, when 28 people died in the sinking of the Daniel J. Morrell in Lake Huron. The disaster was immortalized in song the following year in Canadian folk singer Gordon Lightfoot’s “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.”
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.


"How It Really Is"