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Friday, June 26, 2026

"The Pig Farmer"

"The Pig Farmer"
by John Robbins

"One day in Iowa I met a particular gentleman - and I use that term, gentleman, frankly, only because I am trying to be polite, for that is certainly not how I saw him at the time. He owned and ran what he called a “pork production facility.” I, on the other hand, would have called it a pig Auschwitz. The conditions were brutal. The pigs were confined in cages that were barely larger than their own bodies, with the cages stacked on top of each other in tiers, three high. The sides and the bottoms of the cages were steel slats, so that excrement from the animals in the upper and middle tiers dropped through the slats on to the animals below.

The aforementioned owner of this nightmare weighed, I am sure, at least 240 pounds, but what was even more impressive about his appearance was that he seemed to be made out of concrete. His movements had all the fluidity and grace of a brick wall. What made him even less appealing was that his language seemed to consist mainly of grunts, many of which sounded alike to me, and none of which were particularly pleasant to hear. Seeing how rigid he was and sensing the overall quality of his presence, I - rather brilliantly, I thought - concluded that his difficulties had not arisen merely because he hadn’t had time, that particular morning, to finish his entire daily yoga routine.

But I wasn’t about to divulge my opinions of him or his operation, for I was undercover, visiting slaughterhouses and feedlots to learn what I could about modern meat production. There were no bumper stickers on my car, and my clothes and hairstyle were carefully chosen to give no indication that I might have philosophical leanings other than those that were common in the area. I told the farmer matter of factly that I was a researcher writing about animal agriculture, and asked if he’d mind speaking with me for a few minutes so that I might have the benefit of his knowledge. In response, he grunted a few words that I could not decipher, but that I gathered meant I could ask him questions and he would show me around.

I was at this point not very happy about the situation, and this feeling did not improve when we entered one of the warehouses that housed his pigs. In fact, my distress increased, for I was immediately struck by what I can only call an overpowering olfactory experience. The place reeked like you would not believe of ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and other noxious gases that were the products of the animals’ wastes. These, unfortunately, seemed to have been piling up inside the building for far too long a time.

As nauseating as the stench was for me, I wondered what it must be like for the animals. The cells that detect scent are known as ethmoidal cells. Pigs, like dogs, have nearly 200 times the concentration of these cells in their noses as humans do. In a natural setting, they are able, while rooting around in the dirt, to detect the scent of an edible root through the earth itself. Given any kind of a chance, they will never soil their own nests, for they are actually quite clean animals, despite the reputation we have unfairly given them. But here they had no contact with the earth, and their noses were beset by the unceasing odor of their own urine and feces multiplied a thousand times by the accumulated wastes of the other pigs unfortunate enough to be caged in that warehouse. I was in the building only for a few minutes, and the longer I remained in there, the more desperately I wanted to leave. But the pigs were prisoners there, barely able to take a single step, forced to endure this stench, and almost completely immobile, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and with no time off, I can assure you, for holidays.

The man who ran the place was - I’ll give him this - kind enough to answer my questions, which were mainly about the drugs he used to handle the problems that are fairly common in factory pigs today. But my sentiments about him and his farm were not becoming any warmer. It didn’t help when, in response to a particularly loud squealing from one of the pigs, he delivered a sudden and threatening kick to the bars of its cage, causing a loud “clang” to reverberate through the warehouse and leading to screaming from many of the pigs. Because it was becoming increasingly difficult to hide my distress, it crossed my mind that I should tell him what I thought of the conditions in which he kept his pigs, but then I thought better of it. This was a man, it was obvious, with whom there was no point in arguing.

After maybe 15 minutes, I’d had enough and was preparing to leave, and I felt sure he was glad to be about to be rid of me. But then something happened, something that changed my life, forever - and, as it turns out, his too. It began when his wife came out from the farmhouse and cordially invited me to stay for dinner. The pig farmer grimaced when his wife spoke, but he dutifully turned to me and announced, “The wife would like you to stay for dinner.” He always called her “the wife,” by the way, which led me to deduce that he was not, apparently, on the leading edge of feminist thought in the country today.

I don’t know whether you have ever done something without having a clue why, and to this day I couldn’t tell you what prompted me to do it, but I said Yes, I’d be delighted. And stay for dinner I did, though I didn’t eat the pork they served. The excuse I gave was that my doctor was worried about my cholesterol. I didn’t say that I was a vegetarian, nor that my cholesterol was 125.

I was trying to be a polite and appropriate dinner guest. I didn’t want to say anything that might lead to any kind of disagreement. The couple (and their two sons, who were also at the table) were, I could see, being nice to me, giving me dinner and all, and it was gradually becoming clear to me that, along with all the rest of it, they could be, in their way, somewhat decent people. I asked myself, if they were in my town, traveling, and I had chanced to meet them, would I have invited them to dinner? Not likely, I knew, not likely at all. Yet here they were, being as hospitable to me as they could. Yes, I had to admit it. Much as I detested how the pigs were treated, this pig farmer wasn’t actually the reincarnation of Adolph Hitler. At least not at the moment.

Of course, I still knew that if we were to scratch the surface we’d no doubt find ourselves in great conflict, and because that was not a direction in which I wanted to go, as the meal went along I sought to keep things on an even and constant keel. Perhaps they sensed it too, for among us, we managed to see that the conversation remained, consistently and resolutely, shallow. We talked about the weather, about the Little League games in which their two sons played, and then, of course, about how the weather might affect the Little League games. We were actually doing rather well at keeping the conversation superficial and far from any topic around which conflict might occur. Or so I thought. But then suddenly, out of nowhere, the man pointed at me forcefully with his finger, and snarled in a voice that I must say truly frightened me, “Sometimes I wish you animal rights people would just drop dead.”

How on Earth he knew I had any affinity to animal rights I will never know - I had painstakingly avoided any mention of any such thing - but I do know that my stomach tightened immediately into a knot. To make matters worse, at that moment his two sons leapt from the table, tore into the den, slammed the door behind them, and turned the TV on loud, presumably preparing to drown out what was to follow. At the same instant, his wife nervously picked up some dishes and scurried into the kitchen. As I watched the door close behind her and heard the water begin running, I had a sinking sensation. They had, there was no mistaking it, left me alone with him. I was, to put it bluntly, terrified. Under the circumstances, a wrong move now could be disastrous. Trying to center myself, I tried to find some semblance of inner calm by watching my breath, but this I could not do, and for a very simple reason. There wasn’t any to watch.

“What are they saying that’s so upsetting to you?” I said finally, pronouncing the words carefully and distinctly, trying not to show my terror. I was trying very hard at that moment to disassociate myself from the animal rights movement, a force in our society of which he, evidently, was not overly fond. “They accuse me of mistreating my stock,” he growled. “Why would they say a thing like that?” I answered, knowing full well, of course, why they would, but thinking mostly about my own survival. His reply, to my surprise, while angry, was actually quite articulate. He told me precisely what animal rights groups were saying about operations like his, and exactly why they were opposed to his way of doing things. Then, without pausing, he launched into a tirade about how he didn’t like being called cruel, and they didn’t know anything about the business he was in, and why couldn’t they mind their own business.

As he spoke it, the knot in my stomach was relaxing, because it was becoming clear, and I was glad of it, that he meant me no harm, but just needed to vent. Part of his frustration, it seemed, was that even though he didn’t like doing some of the things he did to the animals -cooping them up in such small cages, using so many drugs, taking the babies away from their mothers so quickly after their births - he didn’t see that he had any choice. He would be at a disadvantage and unable to compete economically if he didn’t do things that way. This is how it’s done today, he told me, and he had to do it too. He didn’t like it, but he liked even less being blamed for doing what he had to do in order to feed his family. As it happened, I had just the week before been at a much larger hog operation, where I learned that it was part of their business strategy to try to put people like him out of business by going full-tilt into the mass production of assembly-line pigs, so that small farmers wouldn’t be able to keep up. What I had heard corroborated everything he was saying.

Almost despite myself, I began to grasp the poignancy of this man’s human predicament. I was in his home because he and his wife had invited me to be there. And looking around, it was obvious that they were having a hard time making ends meet. Things were threadbare. This family was on the edge. Raising pigs, apparently, was the only way the farmer knew how to make a living, so he did it even though, as was becoming evident the more we talked, he didn’t like one bit the direction hog farming was going. At times, as he spoke about how much he hated the modern factory methods of pork production, he reminded me of the very animal rights people who a few minutes before he said he wished would drop dead.

As the conversation progressed, I actually began to develop some sense of respect for this man whom I had earlier judged so harshly. There was decency in him. There was something within him that meant well. But as I began to sense a spirit of goodness in him, I could only wonder all the more how he could treat his pigs the way he did. Little did I know that I was about to find out. . .

We are talking along, when suddenly he looks troubled. He slumps over, his head in his hands. He looks broken, and there is a sense of something awful having happened. Has he had a heart attack? A stroke? I’m finding it hard to breathe, and hard to think clearly. “What’s happening?” I ask. It takes him awhile to answer, but finally he does. I am relieved that he is able to speak, although what he says hardly brings any clarity to the situation. “It doesn’t matter,” he says, “and I don’t want to talk about it.” As he speaks, he makes a motion with his hand, as if he were pushing something away.

For the next several minutes we continue to converse, but I’m quite uneasy. Things seem incomplete and confusing. Something dark has entered the room, and I don’t know what it is or how to deal with it. Then, as we are speaking, it happens again. Once again a look of despondency comes over him. Sitting there, I know I’m in the presence of something bleak and oppressive. I try to be present with what’s happening, but it’s not easy. Again I’m finding it hard to breathe. Finally, he looks at me, and I notice his eyes are teary. “You’re right,” he says. I, of course, always like to be told that I am right, but in this instance I don’t have the slightest idea what he’s talking about. He continues. “No animal,” he says, “should be treated like that. Especially hogs. Do you know that they’re intelligent animals? They’re even friendly, if you treat ’em right. But I don’t.”

There are tears welling up in his eyes. And he tells me that he has just had a memory come back of something that happened in his childhood, something he hasn’t thought of for many years. It’s come back in stages, he says. He grew up, he tells me, on a small farm in rural Missouri, the old-fashioned kind where animals ran around, with barnyards and pastures, and where they all had names. I learn, too, that he was an only child, the son of a powerful father who ran things with an iron fist. With no brothers or sisters, he often felt lonely, but found companionship among the animals on the farm, particularly several dogs, who were as friends to him. And, he tells me, and this I am quite surprised to hear, he had a pet pig.

As he proceeds to tell me about this pig, it is as if he is becoming a different person. Before he had spoken primarily in a monotone; but now his voice grows lively. His body language, which until this point seemed to speak primarily of long suffering, now becomes animated. There is something fresh taking place. In the summer, he tells me, he would sleep in the barn. It was cooler there than in the house, and the pig would come over and sleep alongside him, asking fondly to have her belly rubbed, which he was glad to do.

There was a pond on their property, he goes on, and he liked to swim in it when the weather was hot, but one of the dogs would get excited when he did, and would ruin things. The dog would jump into the water and swim up on top of him, scratching him with her paws and making things miserable for him. He was about to give up on swimming, but then, as fate would have it, the pig, of all people, stepped in and saved the day. Evidently the pig could swim, for she would plop herself into the water, swim out where the dog was bothering the boy, and insert herself between them. She’d stay between the dog and the boy, and keep the dog at bay. She was, as best I could make out, functioning in the situation something like a lifeguard, or in this case, perhaps more of a life-pig.

I’m listening to this hog farmer tell me these stories about his pet pig, and I’m thoroughly enjoying both myself and him, and rather astounded at how things are transpiring, when once again, it happens. Once again a look of defeat sweeps across this man’s face, and once again I sense the presence of something very sad. Something in him, I know, is struggling to make it's way toward life through anguish and pain, but I don’t know what it is or how, indeed, to help him.

“What happened to your pig?” I ask. He sighs, and it’s as though the whole world’s pain is contained in that sigh. Then, slowly, he speaks. “My father made me butcher it.” “Did you?” I ask. “I ran away, but I couldn’t hide. They found me.” “What happened? “My father gave me a choice." “What was that?” “He told me, ‘You either slaughter that animal or you’re no longer my son.’”

Some choice, I think, feeling the weight of how fathers have so often trained their sons not to care, to be what they call brave and strong, but what so often turns out to be callous and closed-hearted. “So I did it,” he says, and now his tears begin to flow, making their way down his cheeks. I am touched and humbled. This man, whom I had judged to be without human feeling, is weeping in front of me, a stranger. This man, whom I had seen as callous and even heartless, is actually someone who cares, and deeply. How wrong, how profoundly and terribly wrong I had been.

In the minutes that follow, it becomes clear to me what has been happening. The pig farmer has remembered something that was so painful, that was such a profound trauma, that he had not been able to cope with it when it had happened. Something had shut down, then. It was just too much to bear. Somewhere in his young, formative psyche he made a resolution never to be that hurt again, never to be that vulnerable again. And he built a wall around the place where the pain had occurred, which was the place where his love and attachment to that pig was located, which was his heart. And now here he was, slaughtering pigs for a living - still, I imagined, seeking his father’s approval. God, what we men will do, I thought, to get our fathers’ acceptance.

I had thought he was a cold and closed human being, but now I saw the truth. His rigidity was not a result of a lack of feeling, as I had thought it was, but quite the opposite: it was a sign of how sensitive he was underneath. For if he had not been so sensitive, he would not have been that hurt, and he would not have needed to put up so massive a wall. The tension in his body that was so apparent to me upon first meeting him, the body armor that he carried, bespoke how hurt he had been, and how much capacity for feeling he carried still, beneath it all.

I had judged him, and done so, to be honest, mercilessly. But for the rest of the evening I sat with him, humbled, and grateful for whatever it was in him that had been strong enough to force this long-buried and deeply painful memory to the surface. And glad, too, that I had not stayed stuck in my judgments of him, for if I had, I would not have provided an environment in which his remembering could have occurred.

We talked that night, for hours, about many things. I was, after all that had happened, concerned for him. The gap between his feelings and his lifestyle seemed so tragically vast. What could he do? This was all he knew. He did not have a high school diploma. He was only partially literate. Who would hire him if he tried to do something else? Who would invest in him and train him, at his age? When finally, I left that evening, these questions were very much on my mind, and I had no answers to them. Somewhat flippantly, I tried to joke about it. “Maybe,” I said, “you’ll grow broccoli or something.” He stared at me, clearly not comprehending what I might be talking about. It occurred to me, briefly, that he might possibly not know what broccoli was.

We parted that night as friends, and though we rarely see each other now, we have remained friends as the years have passed. I carry him in my heart and think of him, in fact, as a hero. Because, as you will soon see, impressed as I was by the courage it had taken for him to allow such painful memories to come to the surface, I had not yet seen the extent of his bravery.

When I wrote "Diet for a New America," I quoted him and summarized what he had told me, but I was quite brief and did not mention his name. I thought that, living as he did among other pig farmers in Iowa, it would not be to his benefit to be associated with me. When the book came out, I sent him a copy, saying I hoped he was comfortable with how I wrote of the evening we had shared, and directing him to the pages on which my discussion of our time together was to be found. Several weeks later, I received a letter from him. “Dear Mr. Robbins,” it began. “Thank you for the book. When I saw it, I got a migraine headache.”

Now as an author, you do want to have an impact on your readers. This, however, was not what I had had in mind. He went on, though, to explain that the headaches had gotten so bad that, as he put it, “the wife” had suggested to him he should perhaps read the book. She thought there might be some kind of connection between the headaches and the book. He told me that this hadn’t made much sense to him, but he had done it because “the wife” was often right about these things.

“You write good,” he told me, and I can tell you that his three words of his meant more to me than when the New York Times praised the book profusely. He then went on to say that reading the book was very hard for him, because the light it shone on what he was doing made it clear to him that it was wrong to continue. The headaches, meanwhile, had been getting worse, until, he told me, that very morning, when he had finished the book, having stayed up all night reading, he went into the bathroom, and looked into the mirror. “I decided, right then,” he said, “that I would sell my herd and get out of this business. I don’t know what I will do, though. Maybe I will, like you said, grow broccoli.”

As it happened, he did sell his operation in Iowa and move back to Missouri, where he bought a small farm. And there he is today, running something of a model farm. He grows vegetables organically - including, I am sure, broccoli - that he sells at a local farmer’s market. He’s got pigs, all right, but only about 10, and he doesn’t cage them, nor does he kill them. Instead, he’s got a contract with local schools; they bring kids out in buses on field trips to his farm, for his “Pet-a-pig” program. He shows them how intelligent pigs are and how friendly they can be if you treat them right, which he now does. He’s arranged it so the kids, each one of them, gets a chance to give a pig a belly rub. He’s become nearly a vegetarian himself, has lost most of his excess weight, and his health has improved substantially. And, thank goodness, he’s actually doing better financially than he was before.

Do you see why I carry this man with me in my heart? Do you see why he is such a hero to me? He dared to leap, to risk everything, to leave what was killing his spirit even though he didn’t know what was next. He left behind a way of life that he knew was wrong, and he found one that he knows is right.

When I look at many of the things happening in our world, I sometimes fear we won’t make it. But when I remember this man and the power of his spirit, and when I remember that there are many others whose hearts beat to the same quickening pulse, I think we will. I can get tricked into thinking there aren’t enough of us to turn the tide, but then I remember how wrong I was about the pig farmer when I first met him, and I realize that there are heroes afoot everywhere. Only I can’t recognize them because I think they are supposed to look or act a certain way. How blinded I can be by my own beliefs.

The man is one of my heroes because he reminds me that we can depart from the cages we build for ourselves and for each other, and become something much better. He is one of my heroes because he reminds me of what I hope someday to become. When I first met him, I would not have thought it possible that I would ever say the things I am saying here. But this only goes to show how amazing life can be, and how you never really know what to expect. The pig farmer has become, for me, a reminder never to underestimate the power of the human heart.

I consider myself privileged to have spent that day with him, and grateful that I was allowed to be a catalyst for the unfolding of his spirit. I know my presence served him in some way, but I also know, and know full well, that I received far more than I gave. To me, this is grace - to have the veils lifted from our eyes so that we can recognize and serve the goodness in each other. Others may wish for great riches or for ecstatic journeys to mystical planes, but to me, this is the magic of human life."

The Daily "Near You?"

Keaau, Hawaii, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Mark Jarman, "Coyotes"

"Coyotes"

"Is this world truly fallen? They say no.
For there's the new moon, there's the Milky Way,
There's the rattler with a wren's egg in its mouth,
And there's the panting rabbit they will eat.
They sing their wild hymn on the dark slope,
Reading the stars like notes of hilarious music.
Is this a fallen world? How could it be?

And yet we're crying over the stars again,
And over the uncertainty of death,
Which we suspect will divide us all forever.
I'm tired of those who broadcast their certainties,
Constantly on their cell phones to their redeemer.
Is this a fallen world? For them it is.
But there's that starlit burst of animal laughter.

The day has sent its fires scattering.
The night has risen from its burning bed.
Our tears are proof that love is meant for life
And for the living. And this chorus of praise,
Which the pet dogs of the neighborhood are answering
Nostalgically, invites our answer, too.
Is this a fallen world? How could it be?"

~ Mark Jarman

"Time, Life, And The Roller Coaster"

"Time, Life, And The Roller Coaster"

"Life is truly a ride. We're all strapped in and no one can stop it. When the doctor slaps your behind, he's ripping your ticket and away you go. As you make each passage from youth to adulthood to maturity, sometimes you put your arms up and scream, sometimes you just hang on to that bar in front of you. But the ride is the thing. I think the most you can hope for at the end of life is that your hair's messed, you're out of breath, and you didn't throw up." - Jerry Seinfeld
Remember when you were 10 years old, and summer felt like it lasted forever? Got a little older, not so bad, still plenty of time to do everything you wanted. Someone told me back then that time speeds up the older you get. Being young, and knowing everything as the young do, I of course ridiculed this idea. But guess what - it’s true. Now I view life, and time, as a roller coaster with just one enormous riser. Time is slower to pass at the beginning as you climb towards the top. At 30 or so you’re at the very top, then you start the fall towards the bottom. Faster and faster you go, as time goes by ever quicker. Weeks and months flash by, and you wonder where it all went, and as you descend ever faster you suddenly realize that somewhere on the tracks below there’s a solid brick wall or some other disaster awaiting your arrival. The only thing you don’t know is where on the tracks ahead of you it is, or how soon you'll arrive. So, while you still can, you'd better appreciate even more the things you can enjoy, and the people whom you love and that love you, because the ride isn’t going to last forever... - CP
Of course, sometimes Life feels like this...

"The Ones Who Live Alone"

Full screen recommended.
"The Ones Who Live Alone"
"In Three-Quarter Town, some people live by themselves. They wake to a cat at the foot of the bed. They make breakfast for one, with a dog watching from the floor. They water plants, read by the window, walk quiet lanes, make soup, light lamps, and end the day with a warm room and a small companion nearby. This gentle story follows different elderly villagers through one ordinary day of living alone, and the cats and dogs who quietly make their homes feel less empty."

Native Elder, "Why Your Children Treat You Like a Stranger"

Full screen recommended.
Native Elder,
"Why Your Children Treat You Like a Stranger"

"Every Line Earned, Every Wrinkle a Story"

Full screen recommended.
Delta King's Blues,
"Every Line Earned, Every Wrinkle a Story"
"These wrinkles ain’t damage… they’re proof I lived. “Every Line Earned, Every Wrinkle a Story” is a soulful, reflective Delta King’s Blues tune about hard years, deep memories, and wearing your age with pride instead of shame. A warm, weathered acoustic guitar carries the melody like hands shaped by decades of work and love. The harmonica speaks soft and seasoned, each bend sounding like another chapter remembered. The groove stays slow and dignified, built for front-porch reflection and stories too real to fake. This is blues about honoring the road behind you. For folks who know every scar, gray hair, and wrinkle came with a lesson attached. A smooth face never tells a life story like a worn one does."

"How It Really Is"

 
God help the kids, if anyone's left when they grow up...

"U.S. National Debt Clock, Real-Time"

"UFC America: More Ass and Less Class"

"UFC America: More Ass and Less Class"
by Donald Jefferies

"Our Prideful Idiocracy: This country wasn’t exactly classy in 2015, when Donald Trump came down the escalator to announce his candidacy for president. Casual Fridays had already taken the culture by storm. People of Walmart was already a website. I think twerking was already popular, and Kim Kardashian’s huge ass was in the middle of everything.

They stopped teaching Civics in high school before I entered high school. So you know that was a long time ago. Civics taught students the rights and obligations of citizens in a society. Now, it wasn’t needed as much back in the 1940s and 1950s, when our civilization placed great importance on manners and politeness. What Ambrose Bierce defined as “the most acceptable form of hypocrisy.” Sure, you knew most people didn’t meant it when they said, “let me know if there’s anything I can do.” I mean, did anyone really ever let these people know that they could do something? It was a common courtesy. Our world used to be full of such common courtesies. School just reinforced what most parents taught their children. Say please and thank you. As Barney the purple dinosaur reminded my children’s generation- they’re the magic words. There’s a thin line between a common courtesy and an empty gesture. Empty or not, they elevated the overall discourse. Insincere pleasantries are still pleasant.

Now you might be saying, “Oh geez, is he going to be claiming how much better things were when he was young again? Brag about how no one had tattoos, the men were lean and the chicks were hot? Talk about how you could be a goof off like him, and still be paid a living wage?” Well, okay, maybe I am figuratively yelling to get off of my lawn. I resisted the idea of being old for a long time, but now I’m claiming every senior citizen discount I can. Just don’t call me elderly. We weren’t as civil as our parents’ generation. My parents never, ever said “fuck.” We did. Quite a bit. We didn’t respect them the way they had respected their parents. The hippies which came just before me were the first to question some of the “establishment.” Oddly, they never seemed to question our banking system. Or the medical industrial complex. Their ire was primarily directed at the Vietnam War. But no other war. Ever. They were at odds with conventional morality, which frowned on premarital sex and drug use.

The foundation for our present day Idiocracy was built on feminism. Most women entered the workplace, leaving most homes with latchkey kids. No fault divorce. The celebration of single mothers in pop culture. Easy access to abortion. “If it feels good, do it” was an updated version of “Do what thou wilt,” credited to the monstrous Aleister Crowley, but actually originating with Ben Franklin’s Hellfire Club. That was the downside to all the personal liberty we enjoyed in the 1970s and 1980s. I’ve talked about how I fought a battle to keep my shirttail out, back in a tucked in world. To say we’ve swung too far in the opposite direction is a kinder way of saying Americans have let themselves go over the past fifty years.; a Hall of Fame understatement. I never thought I’d see people out in public wearing pajamas. I sometimes can’t determine someone’s race or sex these days. Call me a hopeless bigot, but I think that matters. And yes, you can judge our culture’s collective book by its cover.

But more important than mere physical facades are the character of the people. A half century of diabolical conditioning has resulted in generations of soft males with decreased testosterone, and aggressive females with perpetual resting bitch faces. Not to mention an increasing number of confused “transgenders,” whose anger results in a shockingly high suicide rate. All of them- male, female, and they/them, are less polite than any previous edition of Americans. They’re far less likely to say “thank you.” Some struggle to simply say “hello” in response to a greeting. And crowds display a collective stupidity that goes beyond that. It’s routine for thousands of fans to chant “Bullshit!” at sporting events now. I thought it was bad when they would sometimes yell “You suck!” during games a few decades ago. A simple “boo” seemed much more civil. You’d think that the lack of testosterone would make physical violence less likely, but somehow a simple word, or a simple look, can trigger it now.
So it’s appropriate that Trumpenstein- the leader of the free world- scheduled an outdoor UFC extravaganza on the White House lawn. In our mixed up, muddled up, shook up civilization, that is the perfect celebration for the 250th anniversary of our independence. Now, I don’t expect Trumpenstein or the evil Democrats to talk meaningfully about the Founders, and the importance of human liberty. No one is going to quote from the Declaration of Independence, which is all but labeled Hate Speech at this point. No one is going to dwell on that whole angry people breaking away from tyrannical rulers thing. Even our fantastically dumbed down populace might make some kind of connection. The event was what you’d expect; enjoyed by what’s left of the MAGA crowd, deplored by much of America. It was entertaining to hear one of the fighters shout, “Michelle Obama is a man!” He was quickly repudiated by UFC president Dana White. No outlandish conspiracy theories need apply.

Trumpenstein also decided to paint the bottom of the Reflection Pool on the Mall a swimming pool blue. It’s a wonder he didn’t coat it with a garish gold, to match the new decor of the White House. Apparently, he must have used the lowest paid illegal visa painters, because the paint started immediately peeling. Well, at least Trumpenstein turned away from ruining what’s left of the Middle East for a moment, to address domestic issues. Sure, it wasn’t a rebuild of the infrastructure, or a revival of DOGE, but it made a portion of the populace briefly happy. Trumpenstein is the perfect president for the times, a real President Camacho for the Idiocracy. Like many of his countrymen/women/they/thems, he’s rude, inarticulate and unapologetic. He’s overweight and loves fast food. He doesn’t keep promises. He’s untrustworthy. He is America 2.0. As we stand on the brink of our 250th anniversary, there couldn’t be a starker contrast between the former reality TV star and the Founding Fathers.

I used to actually know people who possessed genuine class. Not the class of a caste system, which designates a person’s place in the hierarchy. This kind of class could once be found in trailer parks and inner cities. It wasn’t necessarily associated with one’s net worth. Do we have any leaders, let alone common riffraff, who have real class today? Can anyone act dignified? Every ambassador, every debutante, every One Percenter, seems only a few words away from unleashing a flurry of obscenities, if not launching a physical attack. The poor never took any shit. Now the hoi polloi have the same reluctance to talk things out. Like their immature leaders, they forego diplomacy in lieu of fists flying. Bombs dropping. As boxer turned philosopher Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” You all know I generally like Candace Owens, but she announced that she was pregnant again recently, and explained that whenever she’s pregnant she feels like fighting. With her dainty dukes.

That’s an odd reaction to pregnancy, but all 57 genders love to talk about punching someone in the face. The “Woke” Left especially loves to fantasize about punching ”Nazis” in the face. Since pretty much anyone we don’t like is now de facto a “Nazi,” this leaves a lot of people very vulnerable. I wonder if “Nazis” can say that they love to punch people who call them Nazis in the face? Just imagine how many punches the Mark Levins and Ben Shapiros would have to absorb in such a scenario. We really haven’t progressed much since the days of “you wanna take this outside?” But an Idiocracy pretty much has to be violent. Kick someone in the balls, or watch someone get kicked in the balls. The UFC, in its pure brutality, is the perfect sport for the times. No lions or Christians needed. Just lots of blood. And the same kind of Drunk White Fans who cheer on all Black football and basketball teams. It’s exactly the same mob mentality that used to pack family lunches to watch the public hanging.
I have sometimes cited the 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay. It had a huge impact on me when I read it during my misspent youth. I feel confident in saying that, in the 1980s very few other 20 somethings were reading this ancient book, that chronicled how gullible and unthinking the mass of humans have always been. It was instructive to know that vapid catchphrases would pop up frequently on the streets of 18th century London, long before some creative inner city resident came up with “right on” and “I heard that.” You don’t have to be Frankenstein’s monster for the crowd to turn against you with burning torches and pitchforks. Frank Capra’s brilliant "Meet John Doe", something I cite even more often, demonstrated what would likely happen if a true populist hero emerged on the scene. With just a dash of emotional propaganda, passionate fans would destroy him. Most people are followers. They are looking for guidance.

The angry mob is more frightening than a confederation of conspirators, holed away in a dark castle, plotting future misdeeds. Look at how easily people can be turned by idle school, neighborhood, or workplace gossip. They don’t need the Bilderbergers to manipulate them. Born troublemakers exist. People who enjoy causing misery to others. With all the misshapen and tattooed bodies in present-day ‘Murrica, they don’t have to look very far to find a nice target for ridicule. The problem is, though, when the majority are overweight, and few are even attempting to look presentable, let alone attractive, what poisonous barbs are used against them? If most of the crowd is fat and ugly, can you really call anyone fat or ugly? Maybe the few lookers get singled out? “Hey, Mr. 6 pack abs, kiss my fat tattooed ass!” “Hey, little miss 2 percent body fat, miss perfect hair- why don’t you eat another salad with no dressing?” Maybe the transgenders scoff at those who still have their original biological equipment.

So no, things were far from perfect when I was an obese young boy in a far more fit world. We all stepped on anthills. For the fun of it. Dogs got left outside. In a literal doghouse. The cuisine was less exciting. Pizza was for very rare occasions. I didn’t know, until I was a teenager, that there was any other Chinese food except Chow Mein. No Mexican. Italian was limited to spaghetti. Lots of roast beef and overcooked vegetables. But bacon grease made it delicious and I remember it fondly. I obviously liked the food well enough to become a pathfinding obese youngster. We had only three TV networks, but the programming was far better than what you find today, on the combined 200 channels or whatever. I was the only person I knew who was “awake.” The music was great. And the people were in much better physical condition. To be fair, they were also often high. Just look at any old group shot from beaches, up even into the 1980s. You’ll see that we really lost something aesthetically.

Sure, people were rude back then. But they looked better being rude. And they weren’t quite as rude. I don’t think people took as long to back out of a parking space when others were visibly waiting. I’ve seen posters on message boards laugh and brag about that. They enjoy making people wait. You have online personalities devoted to catching and shaming people who are too lazy to push their shopping carts to the designated area, blocking parking spaces. Most notably, I’ve heard idiots on talk radio justify not washing their hands after taking a shit. Seriously. I guess there were cretins who didn’t wash their hands after wiping their asses back then, too. Just not as many. And no one would have admitted it, let alone bragged about it. In many ways, our evil overlords have helped build a nation of sociopaths. Fat, unattractive sociopaths. Unquestioning sociopaths, ready to line up for the next booster shot. Vindictive sociopaths, anxious to prosecute those who aren’t as stupid and obedient as them.
The madness of modern Americans reaches its peak on Black Friday, when they’re willing to risk life and limb for 20% off an electronics item. There is not the slightest bit of civility in retail. People routinely trample each other for sales that aren’t even special. A few years ago, Popeye’s introduced a new fried chicken sandwich. There were lines out the door to get it. Believe it or not, they were being sold on Ebay. Now, I don’t think I’d want to meet someone who would buy a sandwich on Ebay. But their vote counts the same as mine does. I’m as far removed from a snob as can be, but a civilization requires some standards. Briefly brush your hair. Don’t wear pajamas in public. Pull your pants up. Kind of the same instructions you might give a toddler. If this keeps up, maybe ‘Murricans will regress and forget they’re potty trained. Why not? No one’s going to stop you from doing it in the street. Can Gen Zers tell time with an old fashioned clock? Do addition and subtraction by hand? Make change?

A while back, I came up with a slogan for America 2.0- Smaller Brains and Bigger Asses. Who can argue with the accuracy of that? Our president is a WWE Hall of Famer. We are all WWE now. Females of all ages are willing to really brawl, even more so than the average emasculated male. We have been influenced by the loud Black women, doing the neck movement thing. We’re all keeping it real. Too real. Few can spell decorum, and almost no one has any. We’re an ill mannered mess. An ill mannered mess that is easily angered, but never at the conspirators who are controlling their lives. Instead, they’re distracted by the neighbor’s rosebush. Witness how much property was destroyed after the Knicks won the NBA championship. We won! Nah, we never win. 80% have to lose in a rigged casino economy like ours. So light off fireworks. Hope that the next White House UFC match is extra bloody. Treat yourself to a new tattoo. And order something extra fattening from Uber Eats."
o
Tip of the hat to The Burning Platform for this material.

"The Cost of Everyday Life in America Is Starting to Scare Everyone"

Full screen recommended.
The Unfolded States, 6/26/26
"The Cost of Everyday Life in America 
Is Starting to Scare Everyone"
"In this video, we take a closer look at why everyday life in America feels increasingly difficult to afford, even for households earning what used to be considered solid middle-class incomes. From rising childcare costs and unaffordable housing to grocery inflation, car expenses, and shrinking financial flexibility, many families are asking the same question: why does earning more no longer feel like enough? This is not just a story about inflation. The deeper issue is that essential expenses are rising faster than many people can realistically adapt to. Housing, insurance, healthcare, transportation, and childcare are consuming a growing share of household income, leaving less room for savings, emergencies, or long-term planning. For many people in middle class America, the real challenge is no longer income alone, but how little remains after fixed costs are paid. We break down the economic forces behind today’s cost of living crisis using real stories, data, and practical analysis. More importantly, we explore how these rising costs are changing behavior across America, from delaying homeownership and having children later to relying more on debt and living with thinner financial margins. What expense has impacted your life the most recently? Rent, groceries, insurance, childcare, or something else? Share your experience in the comments."
Comments here:

"If the Iran War Lasts Until August, the U.S. Won't Have a Single Drop of Oil Left"

Pepe Escobar, 6/26/26
"If the Iran War Lasts Until August, 
the U.S. Won't Have a Single Drop of Oil Left"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "Americans Are Running Away From Their Bills"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 6/26/26
"Americans Are Running Away From Their Bills"
"A shocking new consumer survey reveals just how financially stressed Americans have become. Millions of people admit they would skip a credit card payment, carry vacation debt, or even go into debt just to take a summer vacation. In this video, I break down the most surprising statistics from the survey and explain what they really tell us about the U.S. economy, inflation, consumer spending, and the growing affordability crisis. We'll discuss why people are budgeting less successfully, why travel costs and gas prices are changing vacation plans, how credit card rewards are becoming a financial necessity, and why so many Americans are still paying for last year's vacation. If you're interested in personal finance, debt, business news, consumer trends, inflation, recession warnings, and protecting your financial future, this is a discussion you won't want to miss."
Comments here:

Jim Kunstler, "The Party of Algae and 'Our Democracy'"

"The Party of Algae and 'Our Democracy'"
by Jim Kunstler

"Okay, convince me that gay-Islamic-race-communism is a “progressive” political program America is going to buy like corn flakes. The Lefty-left wants to think so, as it lurches from one peak of mental illness to an even greater one in the 130 days to the midterms. Look how successful they’ve been with open borders, defunding the police, men in the girl’s swim lane, no cash bail, sex-change surgery for kids, free-for-all elections, hatin’ on white people, and open Medicare fraud. The new re-branding strategy as “Democratic Socialism” only tells you that reality has ceased to interest them.

No, winning electoral districts stuffed with illegal aliens in bright blue cities with tiny overall voter turnouts won’t sweep the nation like love. More likely it’s a harbinger of the party’s approaching death, like the Whigs going down the drain in 1852, gurgle-gurgle. Advocating to destroy American society is a poor sales pitch. The party’s old-line leadership frantically seeks some way to neutralize the rising influence of Zohran Mamdani and his disciples, but so far nothing works. An odor of desperation fills the air.

One thing you can say about the gay-Islamic-race-communists is that they are well-organized, which is understandable since their political program resembles an ant farm, a dis-individuated collective with insectile characteristics, workers and soldiers toiling in mindless solidarity to occupy more electoral territory so as to vanquish their “oppressors,” Trump and the big feet of his capitalist minions.

Meanwhile, though, the money flows dry up as the old Big Donor Dawgs freak-out at the prospect of having their fortunes confiscated, eaten by this advancing ant-swarm, while Scott Bessent and Todd Blanche work to disassemble the giant, hive-like matrix of NGOs that, for years, laundered US taxpayer dollars through the Democratic Party’s patronage system. In New York City, Philly, LA, Chicago, Seattle, Boston, Portland, the NGOs furnished comfortable salaries for young activists churned out remorselessly by Higher Ed, but all that’s starting to look like a bygone Shangri-la, a lost world.

“Many Democratic primary voters, however, are in no mood for defensiveness. As they see it, they’ve been failed by a cautious, compromising establishment, and they’re going to overthrow it.” —Michelle Goldberg, The New York Times

Of course, the loss of those cushy jobs and perqs has pitched that young demographic into a yet greater rage, prompting them to wreak vengeance and havoc on the system that took their “entitlements” away. Activists want to do activism, which is not necessarily the same as working for a living. It’s working for an ideal, a cause - to abolish the very society based on working for a living and replace it with a parent-like, hovering, all-powerful government that provides your every need by “seizing the means of production.”

The trouble is, this has been tried before, many times in the previous century, and the track-record is discouraging, exhibit-A being the old Soviet Union, the experiment that failed. Why? Because after seizing the means of production, the state bureaucracy lacks the skills, the spirit, and the creative juice to produce much of anything, and especially to do it well. All it can actually contribute to the process is its intrinsic bureaucratic entropy and, to put it ultra-simply, entropy is just not a force for good in this world.

The Republican Party is laboring through its own parallel, but rather different sort of crack-up, a breach based more on pure enmity to President Trump’s personality than necessarily to ideas or policy. The Right still uniformly subscribes to personal liberty and economic enterprise, but factions on the right have a long-running investment in the Deep State apparatus and its protection against Mr. Trump’s impending prosecution of the so-called “grand conspiracy” (the ongoing seditious coup), as well as his dismantling of the money-flow architecture that keeps Beltway types rolling in dough. Former AG Bill Barr is exhibit-A for that faction, as when he concealed the FBI’s possession of Hunter Biden’s laptop through Trump Impeachment No. 1, when he refused to investigate ballot fraud after the 2020 election, and when he managed to let Jeffrey Epstein off himself in the Manhattan federal lockup.

Then there is Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the emptiest suit to ever occupy that job, who refuses to explain his aversion to common-sense election reform or his failure to allow confirmation of the president’s nominees to important federal posts. He is so committed to doing nothing that he makes “Joe Biden” look like a prodigy of action. They say Sen. Thune represents the old-school “country club” Republicans, but he looks too dim to even tote up an 18-hole golf card.

There are also Tucker, and Candace, and Nick Fuentes, and MTG, and other pouting and shouting former MAGA superstars throwing down against the president and his program. Tucker has exposed facets of his personality that seem every bit as cuckoo as the beliefs of the Democratic Party - his Bible literalism, his romance with space aliens, and especially his vehement antipathy for the Jews. It has all become rather unappetizing, though rumors swirl of Tucker seeking to build a whole new party to replace the GOP and MAGA. As Homey de Clown might put it: I don’t think so. . . .

Candace Owens, of course, seems clinically insane, with her year-long program of intense defamation and vilification of Charlie Kirk’s widow, as well as heer fleering Jew hatred. MTG just looks like a sore loser, and Nick Fuentes...? He’s like something that crawled out of the kitchen baseboards after the lights went out. I doubt that any of them will succeed in destroying MAGA, but they’re making the movement uncomfortable. Let’s face it: they’re embarrassing.

On the other hand, the Party of Algae and “Our Democracy” is incapable of being embarrassed, and that has been obvious for a long time based on the absurdities they attempt to foist upon our country. The Iran War seems to be fading in the rear-view mirror now, despite all their yelling about how we lost it. Oil is hovering just below $70-a-barrel as I write. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are reduced to a pitiful vaudeville act in the face of Mamdani-ism. Bernie Sanders is lost in a rain-dance for Utopia. And James Carville is on-track for a three-week vacation in the Rubber Room. Don’t bother praying for them. Just wait for gurgle."

Joel Bowman, "A Sum Without Limit"

"A Sum Without Limit"
by Joel Bowman

“The sum of things is bounded by no limit.”
~ Lucretius, "De Rerum Natura," Book I (c. 60–55 BCE)

Buenos Aires, Argentina - "Once upon a time, in another world, a magical world, the future still felt like it was a long way away. Now, it seems like it can’t come quickly enough! One has only to pick up the paper to read stories of breathtaking ambition and profound stupidity.

Why, just in today’s New York Times...One headline asks whether “Canada is about to enter the Eurovision song contest?” Another wonders if it’s “time for a new sexual revolution?” One inquires “what’s behind those tarps at the Kennedy Center?” Another fearless mind probes “where has all the cottage cheese gone?” Behold, dear reader, the pressing concerns of our day! And lo! What’s this?

Rockets and Riches: No sooner had the world minted its very first trillionaire, in Mr. Elon Musk, when his “13-figure club card” was unceremoniously revoked. Naturally, the green-eyed papers are delighted by the demotion: "Elon Musk’s Net Worth Drops $350 Billion In Massive SpaceX Selloff" ~ gloats Forbes. "Elon Musk loses trillionaire status as global tech rout hits SpaceX" ~ crows the BBC. "Musk loses trillionaire status as SpaceX shares ‘come down to earth with a bump’" ~ gushes The Guardian.

And just for good measure, via a report from the kind of people who study such things, we learn that xAI is “leaning into explicit content.” Here’s Forbes, “psst, passing is on”:

Grok’s Traffic Is Mostly Driven By Adult Content, Report Says: The report claims xAI is actively doubling down on its explicit video and image-generation tools and that adult-content dominance extends into Grok’s coding model, which The Information reports frequently receives requests for pornographic material. So the man is into big rockets, cyber trucks and nudie pics? A man’s gotta have a hobby, doesn’t he? (Your editor enjoys slow train rides, comfy old sweaters and dusty books. Ahem...)

Leaving the Freudian psychoanalysts to their own diagnoses, we pause only to marvel at the kind of civilization that would make such a fellow the richest person – by a wide margin – in its long and sordid history? Oh, the times we live in! Speaking of...

Political Animals: In Wednesday’s Note, we left you with a humble suggestion for a new measurement of time: Human Years. Instead of measuring time by days, months, years and so forth, we mused, perhaps we might think of it in terms of “aggregate human experience.” Or calendar time multiplied by the number of human beings living it. And why not? Geologists have deep time. Astronomers have cosmic time. Physicists have space time.

What about us? We wide-eyed observers of the passing parade? A 12-hour clock is useful for making sure you arrive at the train station on time. A monthly planner is helpful when booking a vacation. A calendar year is practical for organizing your Christmas cards and counting the candles on your daughter’s birthday cake. But what about the collective, human experience? What about considering the broad sweep of civilization itself?

How does a day planner... or a news cycle... or a sun dial... help us understand the rise and fall of empires, the decay of their currencies, the great cycles of history itself? They can help us pinpoint a moment in relative time... but what if, as the population grows, history literally speeds up?

When Caesar crossed the Rubicon, back in 49 BC, the world population stood at about 170 million, hardly more people than voted in the last US presidential election. That we have 8.2 billion men, women and children roaming the planet today... about 48x the population alive during Caesar’s day... is only part of the story.

Human beings, as Aristotle so keenly observed, are by nature “political animals.” By that he did not mean that we are all Republicans or Democrats, Tories or Whigs, RINOs or libtards, but rather that we are essentially creatures of the polis... the broader civic community that helps shape our lives. That includes our institutions, our laws and customs, our liberties and obligations, our cultures and habits, as well as our public deliberations, general elections and other such popular, mass delusions.

In this way, civilization is less like a stack of building blocks and more like a vast network of interconnected individuals, exchanging information across time and space, through billions of interactions, from one End of the World to another.

Laws and Large Numbers: Which brings us to another piece of the puzzle: Metcalf’s Law, or what armchair economists sometimes refer to as the “network effect.” Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet, distilled his proposition as following:

The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. The basic idea here rests on the concept of non-linearity. You throw a Fourth of July cocktail party. One sympathetic friend arrives. Early. They’ve created one possible two-way line of conversation. Then the second guest arrives. Now you have three possible pairings. After the fourth, you have six. The fifth, ten. And so on... By the time fifty of your closest mates are gathered on your back lawn, you’ve got over a thousand (1,225) possible duos.

Thus, under Metcalf’s Law, value is said to grow quadratically, so that:
Guest #10 adds 9 new potential connections.
Guest #100 adds 99 new potential connections.
Guest #1,000 adds 999 new possible connections>

And if we keep counting to include all possible connections – pairs, trios, small groups, large groups, whole teams, etcetera... right up to all 50 guests shouting at one another simultaneously – the possible combinations increase to...
several trillion (1.126 quadrillion, or 1,125,899,906,842,572).

The same mind-boggling math is true across various other kinds of networks, too... whether it be communications, operating systems, social media, dynamic marketplaces, payment systems and even the vast network called civilization itself. Not only does each additional participant bring their own individual value, but they increase the potential value of every preceding person in the entire community.

Across the Rubicon: In Caesar’s day, that community fanned across the “known world.” Today, with nearly fifty times as many people and a density of connections unimaginable to the ancients, civilization has grown into the largest and most intricate information network ever assembled.

During the five minutes it takes you to scan today’s pithy Note, for example, the world’s population will grow by approximately 650 people. Using Metcalf’s Law, and factoring in our existing population, that’s 5.33 trillion new potential human pairs created just while you finish your cup of coffee/glass of wine.

Every minute... of every hour... of every day... unfathomable waves of budding partnerships, lurking rivalries, nascent collaborations, and looming conflicts are building on humanity’s horizon. And if we expand our counting as we did for your hypothetical garden party, to include every new possible grouping of three, four, five, etc. ... all the way up to an 8.2 billion person (plus 650 newbies) collaboration? The number of new possible human connections created by these new earthly arrivals grows to hundreds of orders of magnitude greater than the estimated number of atoms in the observable universe. No kidding. Surely one of ‘em can figure out where all the cottage cheese went, no?"

"Stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World..."

Thursday, June 25, 2026

"3-18 Days: The Practical Diesel Buffer… Does It Preclude Bombing Iran?"

Click image for larger size.
"3-18 Days: The Practical Diesel Buffer…
Does It Preclude Bombing Iran?"
by Larry C. Johnson

"I am indebted to my new friend who is an energy expert ,and currently working in the Persian Gulf, for explaining why the US is facing a very serious risk of a domestic energy crisis. If ignorance is bliss then I’ve spent my last 71 years happily believing that the conversion of oil to fuel for cars, trucks and planes was a simple process. Boy, was I wrong. The United States is facing a potential crisis surrounding the production of diesel and aviation fuel. According to this person, who has 35 years experience in the oil industry:

The U.S. does not have a month of freely deliverable diesel in a stress event. The headline EIA number shows 106.1 million barrels of total distillate fuel oil stocks and 3.631 million b/d of four-week average distillate product supplied, implying 29.2 days on paper. But that national inventory includes barrels in pipelines, refineries, terminals, regional storage, and operational positions that cannot all be allocated immediately to critical distribution hubs.

Operational estimate: applying a 45%-60% practical deliverability factor to total distillate stocks leaves roughly 48-64 million barrels of usable, allocable diesel-equivalent supply. At 3.631 million b/d, that is approximately 13.1-17.5 days, rounded to 13-18 days.

So let me explain how he reached this conclusion. Think of the diesel buffer as the gap between when supply stops flowing and when the economy starts breaking. Thirteen days is not a comfortable cushion - it’s essentially no cushion at all, because the economy runs on diesel in ways that cannot be deferred.

Diesel is not a lifestyle fuel. It moves every truck on every highway, powers every locomotive, runs every tractor during planting and harvest, and drives every piece of heavy construction equipment. When a family decides gas prices are too high, they drive less. When a freight company decides diesel is too expensive or too scarce, it cannot defer the shipment - the grocery store shelves just go empty. Diesel demand is largely inelastic. The economy cannot negotiate with it the way it can with gasoline.

Let’s use the worst case: 13 days. Thirteen days means that if anything disrupts the supply chain - a refinery outage, a pipeline failure, a crude supply disruption - the effects reach the real economy within two weeks. There is no meaningful time to arrange alternatives. A tanker from a replacement crude source takes longer than 13 days to arrive. A refinery turnaround takes longer than 13 days to complete. The buffer is shorter than the lead time for almost every possible remedy.

The geography makes it worse. The 13-day figure is a national average, which means some regions have more and some have less. The Southeast is particularly exposed, being heavily dependent on the Colonial Pipeline, which is itself a single point of failure that demonstrated its criticality when it was shut down for six days in 2021. Six days is nearly half the total national buffer.

What about aviation fuel? Here is where the two problems collide mechanically, and why it creates a genuine bind rather than just a theoretical tradeoff. Diesel and jet fuel are not different products from different parts of the refinery. They are competing claims on the same physical fraction of crude oil - the middle distillate cut that comes off the atmospheric distillation column in the same boiling range. Every refinery scheduling decision is, at its core, a daily argument about how to divide that fraction between the two products.

With a 13-day diesel buffer, the refinery cannot let diesel output fall. The economic and political consequences of a diesel shortage materialize too quickly and too severely. Diesel production becomes, in practical terms, the floor that cannot be breached.

Now layer in a wartime demand for military jet fuel. JP-8 is pulled from the same middle distillate fraction. The military’s operational requirements are also non-negotiable - aircraft do not fly on goodwill. So you now have two inelastic demands competing for one fixed supply of middle distillate from each barrel of crude processed.

The refinery’s response to this bind is constrained in every direction: It cannot simply run more crude. Crude supply itself may be disrupted - this is precisely the scenario the Persian Gulf blockade creates. And even if crude is available, refinery throughput is limited by physical capacity. You cannot run 110% of nameplate capacity.

It cannot shift to lighter crude to get more barrels. Light crude produces proportionally more gasoline and less middle distillate. Running lighter crude when you need diesel and jet fuel makes the allocation problem worse, not better, because you are shrinking the pool of middle distillate that both are fighting over.

It cannot get more middle distillate out of sour crude than the chemistry allows. A barrel of sour crude from the Persian Gulf typically yields around 20–25% middle distillates by volume. That fraction is fixed by the molecular composition of the oil. You can optimize within a range, but you cannot double the yield through operational choices.

Hydrogen becomes a choke point. Making JP-8 from sour crude to military specification requires substantial hydrogen - for sulfur removal, for aromatic ring saturation to meet smoke point requirements, and for freeze point management. Making ULSD from the same sour crude also requires substantial hydrogen - even more, to reach the ≤15 ppm sulfur specification. A refinery’s hydrogen generation capacity is finite. Every cubic foot of hydrogen diverted to jet fuel processing is a cubic foot unavailable for diesel desulfurization. At the margin, maximizing JP-8 production makes the diesel quality problem worse, not just the diesel volume problem.

The certification delay adds time pressure. Switching refinery configuration between maximizing diesel and maximizing jet fuel is not instant. It takes days to a week to restabilize the unit operations and certify the product meets specification. In a 13-day buffer environment, a week of transition time is not a casual cost - it represents a material fraction of the entire safety margin consumed by the act of reconfiguring production.

Under normal peacetime conditions, refineries optimize their middle distillate split based on market prices - jet fuel commands a premium, so they lean toward jet. The diesel buffer stays comfortable and the system works.

The Iran war changes all of that simultaneously in three directions at once: First, the diesel buffer starts shrinking. Persian Gulf sour crude - even though only 8% of US imports - supplied roughly 17% of the medium-sour grades that US complex refiners prefer for middle distillate production. That quality gap is not easily filled by Canadian heavy or domestic light sweet crude without refinery adjustment. Diesel output drops or becomes more expensive per barrel just as the buffer needs defending.

Second, military JP-8 demand spikes. A naval campaign in the Persian Gulf, sustained air operations, and a mobilized logistics tail consume enormous quantities of aviation fuel. The military doesn’t queue behind civilian demand - it has priority. So the refinery is simultaneously being squeezed from both ends of the middle distillate barrel: the military is claiming more jet fuel from the top, and the diesel buffer is bleeding out from the bottom.

Third, the refinery cannot easily solve this by running harder. As explained earlier, maximising JP-8 from sour crude requires pulling a lighter, narrower distillate cut. This is precisely the action that reduces diesel yield - the heavier tail of the middle distillate that would have become diesel is either lost to the vacuum unit or downcycled to fuel oil. The more aggressively refineries respond to military jet fuel demand, the faster the diesel buffer erodes.

This creates a three-way constraint with no clean solution:
1. Protect the diesel buffer → limit JP-8 output → constrain military operations.
2. Maximize JP-8 for military → draw down diesel buffer → trigger civilian supply cascade before the war ends.
3. Try to do both → run refineries at maximum utilization → lose the ability to flex for any further shock, with no margin for equipment failures, maintenance, or a second disruption

The 13-day buffer is what makes this bind acute rather than manageable. With sixty days of diesel inventory, a refinery operator can tolerate shifting the middle distillate split toward jet fuel for several weeks without civilian consequences. With thirteen days, the same shift starts a visible countdown almost immediately. Now do you understand why Donald Trump signed the MoU with Iran?

If the United States decides to renew its bombing campaign of Iran, that would likely trigger the stress event outlined above. Based on that fact I believe that Donald Trump, notwithstanding his threats, will not run the risk of crashing the US economy by bombing Iran again."

As the great Mogambo Guru said, "We're so freakin' doomed!"
And we are...

Gerald Celente, "Nasdaq Down, Inflation Up, Main Street Suffers"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 6/25/26
"Nasdaq Down, Inflation Up, Main Street Suffers"
"In this episode of Trends in the News, Gerald Celente breaks down the economic warning signals the mainstream won’t tell you. As the Nasdaq slides and inflation continues to climb, the real story isn’t on Wall Street - it’s unfolding on Main Street, where businesses and consumers are feeling the squeeze. From rising costs and shrinking purchasing power to market volatility and deepening economic uncertainty, Celente connects the dots between financial market turbulence and the everyday struggles facing working Americans. Who’s really winning in this economy - and who’s paying the price? Tune in as Celente exposes the forces driving today’s economic chaos and what it means for your future."
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