"If Something Cannot Go On Forever, It Will Stop"
So let's try to figure out what "stop" might mean in the real world.
by Bill Quick
Excerpt: "Herb Stein created his famous “law” as a useful analytical tool for approaching potentially harmful long-running economic trends, primarily to make the point that government intervention might not be necessary since, if a particular trend is not supported by existing realities, it will eventually collapse on its own. In a way, it is an economics version of the Oliver Wendell Holmes’ tale of the "One Hoss Shay."
"The parson was working his Sunday's text,-
Had got to fifthly, and stopped perplexed
At what the - Moses - was coming next.
All at once the horse stood still,
Close by the meet'n'-house on the hill.
First a shiver, and then a thrill,
Then something decidedly like a spill, -
And the parson was sitting upon a rock,
At half-past nine by the meet'n'-house-clock, -
Just the hour of the Earthquake-shock!
What do you think the parson found,
When he got up and stared around?
The poor old chaise in a heap or mound,
As if it had been to the mill and ground!
You see, of course, if you're not a dunce,
How it went to pieces all at once, -
All at once, and nothing first, -
Just as bubbles do when they burst.
End of the wonderful one-hoss shay."
Logic is logic. That's all I say. This “shay” had been built throughout with the finest materials available, and each part lasted just as long as the others…until they all turned to dust at the same moment, leaving the man who depended upon the shay flat-assed on the ground, wondering what had happened.
Keep all this in mind while we consider a seemingly unrelated subject. I am an aficionado of cyclical theories of history, many of which are discussed in this excellent piece by Alexander Macris, "The Wisdom of Naram-Sim." Let’s concentrate on just one of them for the moment, because it is currently serving as my own map through todays confusing and perilous times:
A more recent cyclical theory of history is Strauss-Howe generational theory. According to Strauss and Howe, historical events occur in 80-year cycles, each marked by four turnings of a generation (20 years). Strauss-Howe theory has given rise to the oft-discussed concept of the Fourth Turning. Strauss-Howe theory is based on the idea that each generation of human beings predictably differs from the prior generation based on the conditions of its upbringing. Put bluntly, a new crisis occurs when the generation that remembered the last crisis dies off and a new generation that has known only good times take the wheel of the ship of state.
The concept is often summarized using the famous quote by author G. Michael Hopf in his book "Those Who Remain:"
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times.
Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times.”
Full, most highly recommended article is here:
