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Sunday, April 19, 2026

"Trump, Sanity, and Obedience"

"Trump, Sanity, and Obedience"
by Edward Curtin

“Shameless self-willed infatuation
Emboldens men to dare damnation,
And starts the wheels of doom which roll
Relentless to their piteous goal”
– Aeschylus, "The Oresteian Trilogy: Agamemnon"

"Many people are saying that Donald Trump is insane. He may be. So too Benjamin Netanyahu. But if so, it is a form of insanity that includes the calm sanity of Adolf Eichmann and Harry Truman as they went about their business of mass extermination.

Crazy, to use the vernacular, is an elusive word nearly impossible to define, especially when an entire society can be crazy, as Erich Fromm, the German-American social-psychologist, has argued. Obedience is a much touted virtue, not only in overt police regimes but in so-called democracies – but obedience to whom? To mass murderers?

Obedience can be imbibed through osmosis. I remember Regis, my Jesuit high school’s motto – Deo et Patriae, for God and country – and how it linked obedience to God with obedience to the United States. I am certain that such a linkage would be denied by school authorities, but of course the Jesuits are known for their guile. So it didn’t surprise me when I was applying for a discharge from the Marines during the Vietnam War and was being questioned by a group of Marine Officers and one starting screaming at me: “What the hell kind of God are you talking about? I’m a Catholic, too, and my God supports the Marines and the war in Vietnam.” It was hard not to laugh sardonically, especially as he gesticulated with his large cigar for emphasis. I was then sent to a psychiatrist for evaluation who told me, to my great surprise, that he agreed with me and that the country’s leaders were insane.

Adolf Eichmann was declared “perfectly sane” by a psychiatrist who examined him when he went on trial for his routine daily tasks of carrying out Hitler’s orders to exterminate Jews. It was just another day at the office for Eichmann.

Harry Truman was not examined after he ordered the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki; he was assumed to be sane in committing these satanic crimes of mass murder. Just another state executive doing his duty by carrying out the orders of his puppet masters.

Those were the good old days when everyone knew who was sane and who was nuts. Now we seem very confused. Perhaps Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, Iran, etc. have discombobulated many minds about who is sane or not, who is a mass murderer, who evil and who good, depending on which functionary is in the White House. Perhaps not.

If Trump is insane, how did he twice become the president of the United States? Do “sane” people – the well-adjusted ones? – not realize that Trump is the nominal head of an immense system whose history is one of mass murder from Wounded Knee to the recent U.S. slaughter of hundreds, mostly young girls, at the elementary school in Minab, Iran.

Trump gave the orders, but he did not launch those missiles. Nor did Netanyahu massacre Palestinians with his own hands. These fat boy killers prefer to keep their dainty hands clean of blood – to have their functionaries do the killing. I think of other functionaries and the names they gave to the atomic bombs they dropped on Japan: Fat Man and Little Boy. And we talk about sanity.

The “sane” obedient ones do the killing; the soldiers who carry out orders. As the Trappist monk Thomas Merton wrote in his profound book of essays, "Raids on the Unspeakable," in 1966: "It is the sane ones, the well-adapted ones, who can without qualms and without nausea aim the missiles and press the buttons that will initiate the great festival of destruction that they, the sane ones, have prepared. What makes us so sure, after all, that the danger comes from a psychotic getting into position to fire the first shot in a nuclear war? Psychotics will be suspect. No one suspects the sane, and the sane ones will have perfectly good reasons, logical, well-adjusted reasons, for firing the shot. They will be obeying sane orders that have come sanely down the chain of command. And because of their sanity they will have no qualms at all. When the missiles take off, then, it will be no mistake. We can no longer assume that because a man is “sane” he is therefore in his “right mind.” The whole concept of sanity in a society where spiritual values have lost their meaning is itself meaningless."

Our problem, as the historian Howard Zinn once said, is civil obedience, surely not civil disobedience, that people everywhere are so submissive to authority that they will dutifully obey the orders of people like Trump and Netanyahu. Such obedience, all false rhetoric to the contrary, is drilled into us from birth through overt and covert methods of fear inculcation.

My dear departed mother’s father was a New York City cop. When she was young, he made her and her mother, trembling with fear, sit at the kitchen table, upon which he put his revolver, and warned them to obey him or else. Such tyrannical behavior was slightly mitigated decades later when he and my grandmother lived with us. When he heard that any of us eight kids were misbehaving, he, old, feeble, and long retired, would don his police uniform and stomp down the stairs waving his long baton to frighten us. I never got to ask my mother why she tolerated this. Such is the long life of fear.

There are reports that by April’s end the U.S. will have 60,000 troops in Iran’s vicinity. If Trump gives the orders to invade Iran, how many will refuse? How many will refuse to send missiles into more Iranian schools and homes? If Trump gives orders for a nuclear strike, can we expect military individuals with consciences to disobey? Will any heed Pope Leo’s voice about this war? That it is immoral.

It takes a system to wage war, and civil and military obedience to support it. That system – what former CIA analyst Ray McGovern has adroitly named MICIMATT: The Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank system – is so deeply woven into American society and therefore the hearts and minds of its citizens and military personnel that one can only hope against hope that Trump’s orders will be disobeyed by many. It is a desperate hope, I realize.

"War Is A Racket," as Marine Major General Smedley Butler once put it. It is waged for the tyrannical oligarchs and always kills mostly civilians. Over ninety percent now, probably more. Innocent people, little girls at school, babies in their mothers arms – it is organized state terror. War is immoral. It is not complex. It is simple. Like the gospel message the Pope is conveying.

Like all tyrants, Trump is surrounded by sycophants, fearful little people like Karoline Leavitt, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Peter Hegseth, Robert Kennedy, Jr., et al. The whole crew groveling at his feet are implicated in his war crimes. To hear Kennedy defend Trump’s war on Iran, his Ukraine and other policies, by claiming his father, Senator Robert Kennedy, and his uncle, President Kennedy, would agree with Trump is to pass through the looking glass. Kennedy, also a staunch defender of Israel and its savage policies, makes me shake my head in wonder. Was his political conversion, like St. Paul’s, from a light from heaven that sent him to the ground where Trump’s divine voice asked him to hop on the MAGA train? Or was the voice more insidious and subtle, a quiet call from someone else late in the night? However it happened, it is complete, and he is now fully marching to the drums of war along with Trump’s ass-kissing entourage. I, once Bobby Kennedy, Jr.’s ardent supporter when he announced his run for the presidency, feel like a fool.

Let me recommend an important film – Terence Malik’s "A Hidden Life" – about a different type of man, Franz Jägerstätter, an Austrian peasant farmer from an isolated small mountainous village who refuses to take an oath to Hitler and fight in the German army. He knew that his refusal would not stop Hitler; but he also knew his conscience came from God and not the state. So he said no. NO! I will not follow orders, despite everyone telling him to do so. For his refusal, he suffered terribly and was beheaded. In my review of this film which I wrote six years ago as Joseph Biden was three weeks into his presidency, I said:

While Franz is eventually put on trial by the German government, it is we as viewers who must judge ourselves and ask how guilty or innocent are we for supporting or resisting the immoral killing machine of our own country now. Hitler and his Nazis were then, but we are faced with what Martin Luther King called ‘the fierce urgency of now.’

Many Americans surely ask with Franz, ‘What has happened to the country that we love?’ But how many look in the mirror and ask, “Am I a guilty bystander or an active supporter of the United States’ immoral and illegal wars all around the world that have been going on for so many years under presidents of both parties and have no end? Do I support the new cold war with its push for nuclear war with its first strike policy? Do I support, by my silence, a nuclear holocaust?’

The questions still linger. Let Thomas Merton and the twenty-two years-old Bob Dylan have the last words:
For since man has decided to occupy the place of God he has shown himself to be by far the blindest, and cruelest, and pettiest and most ridiculous of all the false gods. We can call ourselves innocent only if we refuse to forget this, and if we also do everything we can to make others realize it."

"The Strait of Hormuz is Closed Again…"


 
Strait of Hormuz 18 April 2026
"The Strait of Hormuz is Closed Again…"
by Larry C Johnson

"The above image above show the Strait of Hormuz when it was partially opened and now, when it is closed. For a brief moment on Friday, 17 April 2026, Donald Trump told a partial truth… The Strait of Hormuz was open for business, but only for ships that coordinated with and were approved by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. That all came to a sudden end on Saturday, 18 April, following Donald Trump inflammatory statements about blockading all Iranian ports. Iran made it clear to JD Vance during the final hours of their last meeting in Islamabad that Iran’s 10-point plan is non-negotiable.

The disruption of the global supply chain caused by Iran’s blockade is not fully grasped by most people. I liken it to radiation sickness… Assume that someone survives the blast of an atomic bomb but is bombarded with radiation. It may take days or weeks for the lethal effects to cause harm to the victim. In this case, the victim is the global economic, financial and industrial system. It will take months (for partial oil recovery) to several years (for full LNG, urea, and helium normalization) for Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels. This is due to a combination of physical destruction, logistical bottlenecks, security risks, and policy overhang from the 2026 Iran war (February–April 2026). Let’s review the factors that will prevent an immediate return to the exports levels that existed on 27 February.

Extensive Physical Damage to Critical Infrastructure: U.S./Israeli strikes and Iranian counter-attacks hit refineries, storage tanks, pipelines, oil/gas fields, and processing plants across at least nine Persian Gulf countries. The most severe damage occurred at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City (the world’s largest LNG hub). Iranian missile strikes in March 2026 knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity (12.8 million tons per year). QatarEnergy’s CEO stated repairs will take 3–5 years, partly because key components (e.g., turbines) are highly specialized and hard to replace quickly. This single facility also produces much of the region’s helium (a byproduct of natural gas processing) and affects urea/ammonia output.

Slow Demining and Security Verification in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran laid extensive sea mines during the conflict. Even with US-assisted removal underway, professional mine countermeasures are inherently slow and require repeated sweeps for safety. As of April 18–19, 2026, shipping traffic remains minimal despite Iran’s “open” declaration. Major shipowners (including BIMCO and Norwegian associations) are still demanding proof of cleared routes, Iranian compliance, and reduced risks before committing vessels.
Insurance, Risk Premiums, and Shipping Logistics

War-risk insurance premiums exploded (from ~0.125% to 0.2–0.4% of hull value per transit). Many insurers canceled Gulf coverage entirely during the height of the crisis. Tankers and crews were scattered globally; rerouting around Africa became standard. Rebuilding confidence, renegotiating contracts, and recalling experienced crews takes months.

Commodity-Specific Timelines:
Oil: Some wells can restart in days/weeks, but full Gulf system recovery (damaged fields + logistics) will take several months to 1–2 years.
LNG: Dominated by Qatar; 3–5 years for full Ras Laffan repairs.
Urea (fertilizer): Tied to natural gas feedstock; Gulf supplies ~45–46% of global seaborne urea. Restart + shipping delays mean months of tight supply.
Helium: Qatar supplies ~30–33% of global production. Damage to Ras Laffan means 3–5+ years offline.

Global Economic Effects of the Supply Cutoff: The cutoff (peaking at ~20% of world oil, ~20% of LNG, plus major shares of urea and helium) created the largest supply shock in modern energy history and is rippling far beyond fuel prices.

Energy Inflation & Stagflation Risk: Oil prices surged (Brent briefly over $120/bbl); LNG prices in Asia jumped >140%. Higher costs for transportation, electricity, and manufacturing feed into broader inflation while slowing growth.

Food Price Spike via Urea Shortage: Gulf region supplies ~20–46% of global traded fertilizers. Shortages already forced plant shutdowns in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Farmers in import-dependent countries (India, Brazil, parts of Africa) face reduced planting or higher costs → higher global food prices in 2026–2027.

Tech & Healthcare Disruptions via Helium: Critical for semiconductor manufacturing (chip cooling/fabrication), MRI scanners (superconducting magnets), fiber optics, welding, and aerospace. Shortages are already hitting supply chains; healthcare delays and chip production slowdowns are expected for years.

Broader Impacts: Supply-chain chaos, higher consumer prices (gasoline, groceries, medical procedures), reduced GDP growth in Asia/Europe (most exposed), and potential recessionary pressure in vulnerable economies. Even the US feels indirect effects through global commodity markets despite lower direct dependence.

In short, even if the US meets Iran’s demands and the Strait of Hormuz is opened for regular business on Monday, 20 April, the combination of war damage (especially at Ras Laffan), lingering security/insurance fears, and policy overhang means full export normalization is a multi-quarter to multi-year process - not a quick switch. The outlook for the global economy is not good, and will worsen the longer this war goes on."

Mario Nawfal interviewed me today when news broke that Iran had again closed the Strait of Hormuz:

Saturday, April 18, 2026

"If the U.S. Invades Iran… Here’s What Happens Next"

A Must-view!
Full screen recommended.
Professor Jiang, 4/18/26
"If the U.S. Invades Iran…
 Here’s What Happens Next"
"What happens if the United States launches a full ground invasion of Iran? In this in-depth geopolitical analysis, Professor Jiang breaks down the military, economic, and global consequences of such a move. From the خطر of حرب in the Middle East to the potential collapse of global oil supply, this video explores how a single decision could reshape the world order. Featuring insights on strategy, resources, and power dynamics, this analysis uncovers what may come next if tensions escalate into full-scale conflict."
Comments here:

"The Ceasefire Was A Joke; The US Economy Is Running On Financial Fumes"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/18/26
"The Ceasefire Was A Joke; 
The US Economy Is Running On Financial Fumes"
Comments here:

"Trump Melts Down in Vegas Speech as Tiny Crowd Exposes Him"

Freedom Feed USA, 4/18/26
"Trump Melts Down in Vegas Speech
 as Tiny Crowd Exposes Him"
"Donald Trump just gave one of the most embarrassing speeches of his political career - in Las Vegas, 90 minutes late, before a tiny crowd. He didn't know what a corner store was. He genuinely argued he's not a senior citizen at 78 years old. He dismissed expert warnings about $300 oil and took credit for numbers that don't hold up. He called an active war with Iran a "little diversion." And through all of it, he kept insisting the economy is booming. This was the Great Big Beautiful Bill affordability tour. And the man selling it couldn't name a basic working class institution."
Comments here:

"Prof. Marandi: Alert! Strait Closed Again, 'We're Prepared For War'"

Canadian Prepper, 4/18/26
"Prof. Marandi: Alert! Strait Closed Again,
 'We're Prepared For War'"
The strait of Hormuz has been closed again, major airlift into the region, 
the US will start boarding Iranian linked vessels abroad next week.
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "Banking Just Changed - It’s All Bad"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 4/18/26
"Banking Just Changed - It’s All Bad"
"The rules for banking are changing fast - and most people don’t realize how serious this has become. Across the country, bank accounts are being closed without warning, withdrawals are being questioned, and everyday transactions are getting flagged by AI systems. You don’t have to be doing anything illegal to get caught up in this. In this video, Dan from iAllegedly breaks down real-world examples of businesses and individuals losing access to their accounts overnight - and why this trend is accelerating. From new citizenship verification requirements to aggressive transaction monitoring and sudden account shutdowns, the financial system is shifting toward tighter control and less transparency. Banks can now restrict access, ask questions about your own money, or terminate your account relationship with little to no explanation. This video explains what’s happening, why it matters, and the steps you need to take right now to protect your money, your access, and your financial future."
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Sculpted by stellar winds and radiation, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud by chance has assumed this recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is some 1,500 light-years distant, embedded in the vast Orion cloud complex.
About five light-years "tall", the dark cloud is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is visible only because its obscuring dust is silhouetted against the glowing red emission nebula IC 434. Stars are forming within the dark cloud. Contrasting blue reflection nebula NGC 2023, surrounding a hot, young star, is at the lower left. The gorgeous featured image combines both narrowband and broadband images."

The Poet: Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

"Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

"Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

- Dylan Thomas
The Marmalade, "Reflections Of My Life"
"The world is a bad place, a bad place, a terrible place to live,
oh, but I don't want to die..."

"Ways We Numb Ourselves - Emerging from the Grey"

"Ways We Numb Ourselves - Emerging from the Grey"
by Madisyn Taylor

"Numbing yourself prevents you from confronting your issues and keeps you from ever finding resolution or peace. We are born equipped to experience a complex array of diverse emotions. Many of us, however, are uncomfortable confronting our most powerful emotions. We may shy away from delight and despair and deny life's colors by retreating into a world of monotone grey. We may numb ourselves to what we are truly feeling. It's easier to suppress our emotions than to deal with them, so we may momentarily turn to pleasures such as alcohol, food, sugar, shopping and too much television. We may even numb our hearts. While it's normal to temporarily seek distractions as a means of coping with intense emotions, numbing yourself prevents you from confronting your issues and keeps you from ever finding resolution or peace. When you are numb, there is no pain or powerlessness, but there can also be no joy or healing.

The activities that numb you may seem harmless or pleasurable, but using them to numb yourself diminishes the quality of your life. Numbing yourself so that you don't have to feel intense emotions can often satisfy a surface need while blocking your awareness of a deeper need. You may find solace in food or shopping when what you really need is spiritual nourishment. The less you feel, the less alive you feel. Your feelings add vividness to your experiences and serve to connect you to the world around you. It is possible to disavow yourself of numbing behaviors a little at a time and once again taste life's rich flavors. When you sense that you are engaging in a particular behavior simply to deaden your emotions, stop and ask yourself why. Examining the feelings that drive you to numb yourself can help you understand what is triggering your desire to emotionally fade out.

With each numbing activity that you cut out of your life, you'll find yourself being more aware and experiencing a greater emotional acuity. Senses once shrouded by the fog of numbness become sharp and acute. Traumas and pain long hidden will emerge to the forefront of your consciousness and reveal themselves so that you can heal them. You'll discover a deeper you - a self that is comfortable experiencing and working through intense emotions with courage and grace."
o
And sometimes, you just reach this point...
Full screen recommended.
Pet Shop Boys, "Numb"
o
“Knowing can be a curse on a person’s life. I’d traded in a pack of lies for a pack of truth, and I didn’t know which one was heavier. Which one took the most strength to carry around? It was a ridiculous question, though, because once you know the truth, you can’t ever go back and pick up your suitcase of lies. Heavier or not, the truth is yours now.”
- Sue Monk Kidd

“To love. To be loved. To never forget your own insignificance. To never get used to the unspeakable violence and the vulgar disparity of life around you. To seek joy in the saddest places. To pursue beauty to its lair. To never simplify what is complicated or complicate what is simple. To respect strength, never power. Above all, to watch. To try and understand. To never look away. And never, never to forget.”
- Arundhati Roy, "The Cost of Living"

"We Don't Have A Clue..."

“We don’t have a clue what’s really going down, we just kid ourselves that we’re in control of our lives while a paper’s thickness away things that would drive us mad if we thought about them for too long play with us, and move us around from room to room, and put us away at night when they’re tired, or bored.”
- Neil Gaiman

"War Is A Racket"

"War does not determine who is right, only who is left."
- Bertrand Russell

“Beautiful ideals were painted for our boys who were sent out to die. The was the "war to end wars." This was the "war to make the world safe for democracy." No one told them that dollars and cents were the real reason. No one mentioned to them, as they marched away, that their going and their dying would mean huge war profits. No one told these American soldiers that they might be shot down by bullets made by their own brothers here. No one told them that the ships on which they were going to cross might be torpedoed by submarines built with United State patents. They were just told it was to be a "glorious adventure".

Thus, having stuffed patriotism down their throats, it was decided to make them help pay for the war, too. So, we gave them the large salary of $30 a month! All that they had to do for this munificent sum was to leave their dear ones behind, give up their jobs, lie in swampy trenches, eat canned willy (when they could get it) and kill and kill and kill...and be killed.

War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes."

"Why don't those damned oil companies fly their own flags on their personal property - maybe a flag with a gas pump on it?"
- Brigadier General Smedley D. Butler, 1937

Freely download "War Is A Racket", by Smedley Butler, here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Tijeras, New Mexico, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"For The Most Part..."

"Human beings never think for themselves, they find it too uncomfortable. For the most part, members of our species simply repeat what they are told - and become upset if they are exposed to any different view. The characteristic human trait is not awareness but conformity, and the characteristic result is religious warfare. Other animals fight for territory or food; but, uniquely in the animal kingdom, human beings fight for their 'beliefs.' The reason is that beliefs guide behavior, which has evolutionary importance among human beings. But at a time when our behavior may well lead us to extinction, I see no reason to assume we have any awareness at all. We are stubborn, self-destructive conformists. Any other view of our species is just a self-congratulatory delusion."
- Michael Crichton, "The Lost World"

"Wise Quotes"

Full screen recommended.
RedFrost Motivation, "Wise Quotes"
Performed By Chris Lines

"Edward Gibbon: On The Seven Key Indicators Of Civilizational Decline"

"Edward Gibbon: On The Seven Key 
Indicators Of Civilizational Decline"
By Kaisar

"Most modern historians are weak. But there is one who stands out above the rest. I can think of no post-Enlightenment historian who better captured why civilizations wither and die than Edward Gibbon. His 1788 work "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" describes the process of collapse well, using Rome as the example. I highly recommend this read, even if using the abridged versions.

Here is a brief summary: "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" is a monumental work by Edward Gibbon, published in six volumes between 1776 and 1788. Gibbon’s magnum opus provides a comprehensive historical account of the decline and collapse of the Roman Empire, spanning from the height of its power to its eventual fragmentation and fall. The work is considered a masterpiece of historical literature and a key text in the study of the Roman Empire.

Gibbon begins with the reign of Marcus Aurelius in the second century AD and traces the history of the Roman Empire through its various phases, ultimately concluding with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. You can take his causes of decline from the fall of Rome and apply it to every major national collapse since then. We can summarize these causes into seven key categories:

Internal Decay: Gibbon argues that internal decay played a crucial role in Rome’s decline. This included moral decadence, corruption, and a loss of civic virtue among the ruling class.
Military Challenges: The Roman military, once a formidable force, faced challenges such as overextension, external invasions, and reliance on mercenaries, contributing to its decline.
Economic Issues: Economic factors, including heavy taxation, inflation, and a reliance on slave labor, are highlighted by Gibbon as contributing to the empire’s decline.
Religious Factors: Gibbon explores the role of religion in the decline, emphasizing the rise of Christianity and its impact on the traditional Roman values and institutions. This created a breakdown from the original tradition, and a splintering within the foundational values of the state.
Barbarian Invasions: External pressures from barbarian invasions, particularly by Germanic and Hunnic tribes, are obviously identified as significant contributors to the fall of the Western Roman Empire.
Administrative Inefficiency: Gibbon critiques the Roman administrative system, pointing to bureaucratic inefficiency, corruption, and a lack of responsiveness to emerging challenges.
Division of the Empire: The division of the Roman Empire into East and West is seen as a weakening factor, with the Western Roman Empire eventually succumbing to various pressures while the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) persisted for several more centuries.

Any of those sound familiar? I have just recently written on each one of these regarding the current American system:
Internal Decay: America Is Babylon
Administrative Inefficiency: Bureaucracy Will Destroy Us

If you didn’t know I was talking about Rome when you read the first list, you’d probably think this article was about the United States. Even the division piece – we don’t have an outright division yet, but the foundation is there, just as it was for Rome.

Remember: this work was written around 1788. When you read the above seven points, you would think it’s a critique of the current American state. But nope, this was Rome circa pre-collapse. It’s a great work, if you can stomach the sheer amount of content included. Those seven key indicators of decline are helpful to recognize; to properly discern the signs of the times. The lessons the book provides are phenomenal for extrapolating to future collapses. And pensively, to our own current condition."

Freely download "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire",
by Edward Gibbon,  here:

The Diminutive Nature..."

"The minds of men were gradually reduced to the same level, the fire of genius was extinguished. The name of Poet was almost forgotten; that of Orator was usurped by the sophists. A cloud of critics, of compilers, of commentators, darkened the face of learning, and the decline of genius was soon followed by the corruption of taste. This diminutive stature of mankind was daily sinking below the old standard."
- Edward Gibbon,
"The Decline And Fall of The Roman Empire"
"Beware the irrational, however seductive. Shun the 'transcendent' and all who invite you to subordinate or annihilate yourself. Distrust compassion; prefer dignity for yourself and others. Don't be afraid to be thought arrogant or selfish. Picture all experts as if they were mammals. Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence. Suspect your own motives, and all excuses. Do not live for others any more than you would expect others to live for you."
- Christopher Hitchens

"How It Really Is"

“My own view is that this planet is used as a penal colony, lunatic asylum and dumping ground by a superior civilization, to get rid of the undesirable and unfit. I can't prove it, but you can't disprove it either. It happens to be my view, but it doesn't challenge any of the findings of Darwin or Huxley or Einstein or Hawking.” - Christopher Hitchens
“Maybe this world is another planet’s hell.” 
- Aldous Huxley

"10 Signs That A Significant Portion Of Our Population Has Gone Nuts"

"10 Signs That A Significant Portion 
Of Our Population Has Gone Nuts"
by Michael Snyder

"Have you noticed that people around you are behaving more erratically? These days, you just never know what is going to set someone off. A person may seem relatively normal, but then the moment you express an opinion that they don’t like they totally lose it. It is almost as if the majority of the population is constantly “on edge” emotionally. If you are one of those people, you need to understand that nobody is going to agree with you 100 percent of the time. If I write something that you don’t agree with, that is okay. And if you say something to me that I don’t agree with, that is okay too. A free exchange of ideas is so important in our society, but a lot of people don’t seem to understand this.

Can you remember when it seemed like most of the people living in this country were relatively normal? I realize that this may be hard to believe, but there was a time when our streets were not filled with nuts and you didn’t have to worry that the next person you run into might flip out for no reason at all.

One of the big reasons why everything has gone so haywire is because we simply stopped developing deep relationships with those around us. Today, our relationships are with our screens. According to the American Psychological Association, U.S. teens spend an average of 4.8 hours a day using social media…4.8 hours

Average number of hours a day that U.S. teens spend using seven popular social media apps, with YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram accounting for 87% of their social media time. Specifically, 37% of teens say they spend 5 or more hours a day, 14% spend 4 to less than 5 hours a day, 26% spend 2 to less than 4 hours a day, and 23% spend less than 2 hours a day on these three apps.

Study after study has shown that heavy use of social media can lead to depression and a whole host of other emotional issues. So it should come as no surprise that over one-fifth of all adolescents living in America “had a current, diagnosed mental or behavioral health condition in 2023”…"More than 1 in 5 adolescents in the U.S. (5.3 million) had a current, diagnosed mental or behavioral health condition in 2023, according to a new data brief from the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA).

Among those 5.3 million adolescents, defined as children ages 12-17, anxiety was the most common condition (16.1%), followed by depression (8.4%) and behavior/conduct problems (6.3%). Female adolescents were more likely than male adolescents to be diagnosed with anxiety (20.1% of females compared to 12.3% of males) and were more likely to be diagnosed with depression (10.9% of females compared to 6% of males). However, behavior and conduct problems were nearly twice as likely to occur among male adolescents compared to female adolescents (8.2% of males compared to 4.3% of females)."

Wow. And how many more have undiagnosed conditions? Many social media communities are breeding grounds for hate. What you feed into your mind on a regular basis is going to determine how you view the world. It really is that simple. Let me give you another example. At some hospitals in New Jersey, parents are asked to provide “preferred pronouns and sexual orientation” for their newborn infants…"As if coming up with a great baby name wasn’t hard enough. Newborns can’t even control their own movements, but that isn’t stopping New Jersey hospitals from asking parents for their baby’s preferred pronouns and sexual orientation.

Inspira Health’s “Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Questionnaire” requires new parents to “identify” their babies as either “Male, Female, Transgender, Gender Queer,” or “Additional gender category.” It further asks parents to select the word that best describes their infant: “Lesbian or gay, Straight or heterosexual, Self-described, Questioning/Unsure.” Needless to say, infants have no idea what pronouns are, and it will be years before they understand anything about “sexual orientation”.

Unfortunately, we live in a world where many feel a need to inject such cultural issues into everything, because those that are on the cutting edge of cultural change are often held up as heroes…"CNN has honored trans-identified influencer Dylan Mulvaney as its “game changer” of the week, with the social media influencer saying he told his mom as a small child that he thought “God made a mistake.” Video footage shared by the left-leaning media watchdog Media Matters of America shows that CNN recognized Mulvaney as its “game changer” Friday."

No, God does not make any mistakes. And God is not a pop star either. If you can believe it, Democrats in California began a meeting “by reciting a prayer to Beyonce using Beyonce’s lyrics”…California Democrats opened an assembly meeting by reciting a prayer to Beyonce using Beyonce’s lyrics and asking her for strength. Democrats are making a mockery of God. Sickening. Are you kidding me? It is a very dangerous thing to mock God.

Sadly, many of our top scientists are now trying to play God. One company in Texas has announced that it actually plans to bring back the wooly mammoth by 2028…"A biotechnology company whose goal is to bring back the wooly mammoth says its recent small step is big news. Colossal Biosciences of Texas has said it aims to restore extinct species to the planet. The company made the woolly mammoth one of its first missions, setting a goal of having a mammoth walk the earth in 2028." Haven’t these people seen the Jurassic Park movies? Bringing extinct species back from the dead is never a good idea.

Of course it isn’t a good idea to create super-intelligent AI entities that can think for themselves either. In Sweden, one company has successfully developed an AI dog “that has a functional digital nervous system capable of learning and adapting like humans”…"A Swedish AI startup company has created a robot dog named Luna that has a functional digital nervous system capable of learning and adapting like humans and many animals, the company, IntuiCell, said on Wednesday. In one of the first-use cases of physical agentic AI, which can make decisions and take actions towards specific goals rather than just perform narrow tasks or generate content, the robot dog would be able to learn like a real dog."

Does anyone out there believe that it is a good idea to create ultra-powerful, ultra-intelligent entities that can think millions of times faster than us? To me, that is one of the most insane things that we could do. But we are doing it anyway.

Despite all of our advanced technology, it appears that humanity is more unhappy than ever. Americans fill approximately 6 billion prescriptions each year. That breaks down to about 19 prescriptions per person. Just think about that. And a very large percentage of the pills that we take are for mental or emotional reasons.

Earlier today, I was stunned to learn that use of ADHD medications is rising the fastest among “middle-aged and older women”…"Prescriptions for ADHD medications have been spiking in recent years, with the sharpest increase among middle-aged and older women. They’re also the least likely to misuse the prescription stimulants, a new study finds. The rise among women ages 35 to 64 has been substantial. At the end of 2022, 1.7 million women in this age group were prescribed stimulants such as Adderall and Ritalin for ADHD, compared to 1.2 million prescriptions in 2019."

We take billions of pills, but has that made our population more stable or less stable? Needless to say, the answer is obvious. We are in the midst of the worst mental health crisis that our nation has ever seen, and that is just one element of “the perfect storm” that is now upon us. Our society really is coming apart at the seams right in front of our eyes. Unfortunately, most of us still do not want to admit how far we have fallen, and that is not good at all."
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“The real hopeless victims of mental illness are to be found among those who appear to be most normal. “Many of them are normal because they are so well adjusted to our mode of existence, because their human voice has been silenced so early in their lives, that they do not even struggle or suffer or develop symptoms as the neurotic does.” They are normal not in what may be called the absolute sense of the word; they are normal only in relation to a profoundly abnormal society. Their perfect adjustment to that abnormal society is a measure of their mental sickness. These millions of abnormally normal people, living without fuss in a society to which, if they were fully human beings, they ought not to be adjusted.”
- Aldous Huxley

"Citizen, Can You Spare A $Trillion?

"Citizen, Can You Spare A $Trillion?
Posted by Stucky

"The war with Iran. When was the last time you saw a broadcast or read a newspaper that talked about significant American losses/costs? For example the total destruction of the billion dollar long-range radar station in Jordan, or the fact that the 14 military bases America has in the ME are currently basically uninhabitable. Let me guess …. virtually zero, right? This war is likely to cost a trillion dollars. Think about that this tax season. After all, YOU are paying for it. Then again, you are getting back $3 – $4 thousand dollars, so life in ‘Murica is goooood. Right? Make Wars Fun Again."

"Why is the war in Iran so expensive? On February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, killing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. By early April, the United States had more than 56,000 troops in the war zone (including some 50,000 on ships, military bases, and other installations, as well as 4,500 Marines and 2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne), and the United States was considering deploying 10,000 additional ground troops.

We spoke with Professor Linda Bilmes, the Daniel Patrick Moynihan Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and a leading expert on public finance, about the financial cost of the war in Iran. The conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity, and all information reflects the reality as of April 6, 2026.

How expensive is the war in Iran for American taxpayers? Wars always cost more than expected. Throughout history, those who get into wars tend to be optimistic about the cost and about the length of time it will take. For example, Russia thought it could take control of Ukraine in a few weeks. President George W. Bush fired his economic advisor, Larry Lindsey, for predicting that the Iraq War might cost $200 billion (it ended up costing $5 trillion).

We see the same pattern with Iran. The Trump administration expected that this war would be over quickly and would be relatively inexpensive. According to the Pentagon, it cost $11.3 billion in the first three to five days—but that is an underestimate. According to my calculations, those first few days cost at least $16 billion. We are spending down munitions at an extraordinarily fast pace—to put it in perspective, we fired more Patriot missiles in the first four days of the Iran war than we have given to Ukraine over the past four years. It is hard to measure the exact cost. But based on what we know now, it is costing about two billion dollars a day in short-term, upfront costs, which is the tip of the iceberg.

What are some short-term costs of the war in Iran? Short-term costs include things like the munitions, which are the missiles, bombs, and interceptors we are firing; the cost of maintaining two or three carrier strike groups in the region with aircraft, submarines, destroyers, supply ships, etc.; and the cost of maintaining personnel, combat pay, extended deployment pay, as well as the cost of unexpected things like the fact that we lost three F-15 fighter jets to friendly fire from Kuwait. And now Iran has already shot down U.S. aircraft, including an F-15 fighter, an A-10 attack plane, and multiple drones. So we are losing high-cost assets.

How are short-term costs calculated? But the short-term costs are even higher than they appear. The Pentagon reports costs based on the historical value of inventory, instead of the actual cost it takes to replace what we are using. And those replacement costs are far higher.

For example, the Tomahawk missiles being used are valued at around $2 million each in inventory, but replacing them today costs $3 to $3.5 million. Patriot missiles in the inventory were valued at $1 to $2 million, but newer versions cost $4 to $5 million each. The same is true for fuel and other supplies, where we are drawing down inventory purchased at lower prices and replacing it at much higher current prices. We are not accounting for the full cost of repair and maintenance, or for what it costs to keep forces deployed months beyond their planned rotations.

Can you share examples of those additional costs? Take the USS Gerald R. Ford, an exceedingly high-tech $13 billion aircraft carrier which just limped off after a massive fire in the laundry exposed 600 sailors to serious smoke inhalation. It was deployed six months longer than planned, with about 5,000 personnel on board, and the sewage system failed, so it cost $400,000 to flush the toilets with chemicals every day. The carrier now requires 14 months or more of repairs. None of those costs are reflected in the initial operational estimates.

These gaps are one reason why the reported $11.3 billion is closer to $16 billion, and they reflect a persistent gap between what the Pentagon reports in real time and what the war actually costs. You can see that gap clearly in the administration’s request for roughly $200 billion in emergency funding, much of it to cover repairs, maintenance, and replacement costs that were never included in the upfront costs that get announced.

What are the other costs? There are always big, medium, and long-term costs that go on long after the last shot is fired. The medium-term costs, over the next four to five years, include things like repairing facilities and restocking inventory with much higher-tech weapons systems.

Starting with reconstruction of damaged facilities and inventory, at least 20 U.S. military installations in the region have been severely damaged, including bases, housing, missile systems, etc. These will take years to repair. At the same time, we will be rebuilding across the region, and probably helping our allies, including Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, etc., to rebuild some of their facilities and infrastructure that Iran has destroyed. Then there is the cost of the contracts we are signing with defense suppliers.

What are some examples of contracts with defense suppliers? We have already signed billions of dollars of large, multi-year contracts with Lockheed Martin to increase interceptor production from about 600 per year to roughly 2,000, to produce 400 THAAD interceptors per year, up from 96; we signed a contract with Boeing to expand production of missile systems. This is not a marginal adjustment; it is a large-scale industrial expansion that will take years and cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

And it reflects a fundamental asymmetry in the economics of this war. Iran is producing roughly 10,000 Shahed drones per month at a cost of about $30,000 each. We are responding by firing interceptors that cost around $4 million apiece, and using up what we have both in offense and defense, for example protecting Israel from incoming attacks. So in the medium term, we are rebuilding infrastructure, replenishing stockpiles, and expanding production capacity—all at once, and all at high cost. But the long-term costs will dwarf all this.

What are the long-term costs? First, veterans’ care. We now have roughly 55,000 U.S. troops deployed in this conflict who have been exposed to toxins, contaminants, and environmental hazards, such as burning fuel and chemical residues that we know can cause long-term harm. Under the PACT Act, veterans who develop or aggravate conditions, ranging from asthma and skin problems to cancer, are eligible for lifetime disability compensation and medical care for the rest of their lives.

For example, 37% of the veterans from the first Gulf War in 1991 receive lifetime disability benefits. So if even one-third of the 55,000 troops deployed today claim benefits, then we are committing ourselves to tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in disability and medical care costs for this cohort alone. And if we send more troops into Iran, the toll from serious injuries and disabilities will unfortunately grow. It is important to reckon with this cost.

Can you put the long-term costs in context? Before this war started, we already owed $7.3 trillion dollars just in disability benefits alone (not including medical benefits, education, and other benefits) to veterans of previous wars who are alive now. I have written extensively about this debt and why we should be setting up a Veterans Trust Fund to pay for it instead of kicking the can down the road.

Second, there is the permanent increase in the defense budget. The president is proposing roughly a 50% increase in the defense budget. If enacted in full, that would push defense spending to levels about 20% higher than the peak reached during World War II. This raises the baseline. Even if Congress does not agree to approve the full increase, it is highly likely that at least $100 billion per year will be added to the base defense budget that would not have been approved in the absence of this war. And once that increase is built into the base, it raises the baseline and compounds—so an additional $100 billion per year is $1 trillion over the next decade.

What does this mean for the national debt? When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, debt held by the public was under $4 trillion. Our total national debt today is now $39 trillion dollars, and a lot of that debt is due to the money we borrowed for Iraq and Afghanistan. But all the money that we borrowed over the last 20 years at low interest rates is now being repaid at the higher interest rates that we are all experiencing. Today, we spend about 15% of the total national budget just paying interest.

So that means we are borrowing to finance this war at higher rates, on top of a much larger debt base. The result is that the interest costs alone will add billions of dollars to the total cost of this war. And unlike the upfront costs, these are costs we are explicitly passing on to the next generation. And we have not even discussed the long-term economic costs and the impact of rising oil prices, insurance, food, and other prices on the global economy.

How do you think about the “tradeoffs” involved in war spending? I am certain we will spend one trillion dollars for the Iran war. Perhaps we have already racked up that amount. So what is the opportunity cost of that money? There are some who would say, “This money should be spent on schools, or roads, or other immediate concerns.” There are others, and I tend to be something of a fiscal hawk, who would say, “This money should be used to help pay for existing obligations. For example, dealing with the Social Security shortfall, dealing with the liabilities we have to veterans, reducing the deficit.”

If we think about how to spend money strictly in terms of national security, we know from recent history that national security includes not only the military, but also economic security and health security, as we saw with COVID. There are many dangers, but they are not all military threats."

"I Predicted This War in 2024, Now I'm Predicting How It Ends"

Prof. Mohammad Marandi, 4/17/26
"I Predicted This War in 2024, 
Now I'm Predicting How It Ends"

"In 2024, Professor Marandi made three predictions that sounded impossible at the time - Trump would return to power, America would go to war with Iran, and America would lose that war. Now, two of those predictions are already unfolding. And what comes next may redefine the global order forever. In this video, Professor Marandi delivers his most critical analysis yet - not just how this war ends, but what happens to America, the global economy, and the balance of power once the dust settles.

Using his powerful framework of Predictive History - a fusion of game theory and deep structural analysis -he lays out the only two logical endgame scenarios. Why an air war alone cannot secure victory. Why a ground invasion of Iran would become a strategic disaster. And why the real collapse won’t be military… but financial. Because at the center of this conflict lies something far bigger than war - the petrodollar system itself. This is not speculation. This is not emotional analysis. This is cold logic, backed by patterns of history, economic systems, and geopolitical reality."
Comments here:

"Prices For Physical Oil And Fertilizer Go Absolutely Nuts As A “Summer Of Shortages” Looms On The Horizon"

by Michael Snyder

"Most people out there still seem to believe that the war in the Middle East will rapidly come to a conclusion and economic conditions will return to normal soon. Meanwhile, the price of physical oil is going absolutely nuts, the price of fertilizer is going absolutely nuts, and we are being warned that a “summer of shortages” is looming on the horizon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. What we are going to be facing in the months ahead very much depends upon the duration of the war. Unfortunately, as you will see below, it does not appear that a peace deal with Iran is going to happen any time soon.

According to the Daily Mail, citizens of the UK are being warned to brace themselves for a “summer of shortages”… Brits are being braced for a summer of shortages with warnings that chicken and pork are among a swathe of products at risk from the Iran war. We have never seen a “summer of shortages” in the western world. So most of us have no idea what that would look like.

According to the BBC, in a “worst case scenario” there could actually be shortages of chicken and pork in the months ahead…The UK could face food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the Iran war continues, in a worst case scenario drawn up by government officials.

A government source told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation. A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it would continue to work closely with businesses to tackle the impact of the war.

Hopefully a worst case scenario will not materialize. But right now the Iranians seem to be in no mood to release the stranglehold that they have on the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, there could be widespread shortages of jet fuel in Europe in just six weeks…Europe may have just six weeks left of jet fuel, with serious consequences for the continent’s economy, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday. “Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks, depending how much they are able to import from international markets to replace the lost supply from the Middle East, which accounted for 75% of Europe’s net imports of jet fuel previously,” the IEA told CNBC in an emailed statement.

Earlier, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the Strait of Hormuz blockade will result in “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday. If you need to fly somewhere, I wouldn’t wait too much longer.

During the months ahead we could also see rationing of fuel and electricity. In fact, it is being reported that Pakistan is already shutting down electricity generation “for about two hours during the evenings”… Pakistan will suspend electricity supply for about two hours during the evenings, an effort to manage the cost of power as the Iran war further shakes the energy-poor country, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Demand raises significantly between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., due in part to reduced hydropower generation, the Pakistani government said in a statement on Wednesday. Potential gaps would have to be met through fossil fuels that have become more expensive after the Iran war disrupted flows plunging the region into an energy crisis.

Some people in Pakistan are claiming that electricity generation is down for much more than just two hours a day. But those are just anecdotal reports at this point. Sadly, things will get so much worse if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.

Earlier this week, HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery made headlines when he discussed the historic crisis that is now upon us. He is claiming that the highest price that he has seen so far for a barrel of physical oil is 286 dollars…“What worries me is not the headlines. I mean, oil headline is above $100, $110. Realistically, if you are now trying to get oil from the Middle East, you may be paying $140, $150.

Realistically, if you try to get oil from the Red Sea, you are paying more than $30, $40 for shipping. Insurance costs, which used to be 25 basis points, is more like 5%, and war insurance has been scrapped - you’re paying 5% without even the war insurance component.

So the barrel of oil door to door or the barrel of refined oil door to door is way above the headline price of oil. The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka. This is not a country and an economy that can easily afford these kind of prices sustainably.” I was absolutely stunned when I read that. I knew that the price of physical oil for immediate delivery had become completely disconnected from oil futures, but I didn’t realize that things were already this bad.

And the price of fertilizer has been rising at an exponential rate in recent weeks…
If you have been keeping up with my recent articles, you already know why that chart is such a big deal. Needless to say, we desperately need a diplomatic breakthrough. It would be so wonderful if Iran would just allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz like it did before.

But the Iranians are insisting that they are in charge of the Strait from now on, and they are demanding that any commercial vessels that they allow to pass through the waterway must pay a very large toll that is to be paid using Iranian banks…An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country’s planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.

The Trump administration is hoping to break Iran’s resolve by blockading all Iranian ports. So far, 13 vessels that attempted to travel to or from Iranian ports have been turned back… The U.S. Navy has turned back 13 ships since its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman began more than 24 hours earlier, the Pentagon said Thursday. President Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after complaining that Tehran has not appeared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of his conditions for agreeing to the fragile two-week ceasefire that is currently in effect.

The attempt to ratchet pressure on Iran began after an initial round of U.S.-Iran peace talks failed over the weekend. I don’t think that this blockade is going to force the Iranians to give in.

If that doesn’t work, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is warning that the U.S. military is ready to bomb them into oblivion

Secretary Hegseth sends a DIRECT MESSAGE to Iran from the Pentagon:

“To IRGC leadership, we’re watching you. Our capabilities are NOT the same, our military and yours. Remember, this is NOT a fair fight, and we know what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them to. You are digging out, which is exactly what you’re doing -  digging out of bombed out and devastated facilities, and we are only getting stronger.” We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and your energy industry. We’d rather not have to do it, we are ready to go at command of our president and the push of a button.”

Unfortunately, Iranian leaders have not been swayed by such threats. In fact, they do not plan to meet with U.S. negotiators again until the U.S. quits making “excessive demands”
Right now, the U.S. and Iran are not even in the same universe as far as what a reasonable conclusion to this war would look like. During the recent peace talks in Pakistan, Vice-President JD Vance delivered the Trump administration’s “final offer” to the Iranians. Sadly, the Iranians were not interested at all, and they are making all sorts of threats. Here is just one example

Iran’s Seyed Mohammad Marandi: “Because of Netanyahu and Trump, Iran is preparing to destroy everything in the Persian Gulf – including all critical infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Temperatures will rise, the Peninsula will become uninhabitable, and the global economy will crash.”

It appears that a lot more fighting is still ahead. Of course that means that the Strait of Hormuz will likely be closed for an extended period of time. So I would encourage you to prepare yourself for a “summer of shortages”, because a “worst case scenario” appears to be the most likely scenario at this stage."

Friday, April 17, 2026