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Tuesday, March 17, 2026

"How To Recover When The World Breaks You"

"How To Recover When The World Breaks You"
by Ryan Holiday

"There is a line attributed to Ernest Hemingway - that the first draft of everything is sh*t - which, of all the beautiful things Hemingway has written, applies most powerfully to the ending of "A Farewell to Arms." There are no fewer than 47 alternate endings to the book. Each one is a window into how much he struggled to get it right. The pages, which now sit in the Hemingway Collection at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston, show Hemingway writing the same passages over and over. Sometimes the wording was nearly identical, sometimes whole sections were cut out. He would, at one moment of desperation, even send pages to his rival, F. Scott Fitzgerald, for notes.

One passage clearly challenged Hemingway more than the others. It comes at the end of the book when Catherine has died after delivering their stillborn son and Frederic is struggling to make sense of the tragedy that has just befallen him. “The world breaks everyone,” he wrote, “and afterward many are strong at the broken places. But those that will not break it kills.”

In different drafts, he would experiment with shorter and longer versions. In the handwritten draft he worked on with F. Scott Fitzgerald, for instance, Hemingway begins instead with “You learn a few things as you go along…” before beginning with his observation about how the world breaks us. In two typed manuscript pages, Hemingway moved the part about what you learn elsewhere and instead added something that would make the final book - “If people bring so much courage to this world the world has to kill them to break them, so of course it kills them.”

My point in showing this part of Hemingway’s process isn’t just to definitively disprove the myth - partly of Hemingway’s own making - that great writing is something that flows intuitively from the brain of a genius (no, great writing is a slow, painstaking process, even for geniuses). My point is to give some perspective on one of Hemingway’s most profound insights, one that he, considering his tragic suicide some 32 years later, struggled to fully integrate into his life.

The world is a cruel and harsh place. One that, for at least 4.5 billion years, is undefeated. From entire species of apex predators to Hercules to Hemingway himself, it has been home to incredibly strong and powerful creatures. And where are they now? Gone. Dust. As the Bible verse, which Hemingway opens another one of his books with (and which inspired its title) goes: “One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth forever…The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to the place where he arose…”

The world is undefeated. So really then, for all of us, life is not a matter of “winning” but of surviving as best we can - of breaking and enduring rather than bending the world to our will the way we sometimes suspect we can when we are young and arrogant.

I write about Stoicism, a philosophy of self-discipline and strength. Stoicism promises to help you build an “inner citadel,” a fortress of power and resilience that prepares you for the difficulties of the world. But many people misread this, and assume that Stoicism is a philosophy designed to make you superhuman - to help you eliminate pesky emotions and attachments, and become invincible.

This is wrong. Yes, Stoicism is partly about making it so you don’t break as easily - so you are not so fragile that the slightest change in fortune wrecks you. At the same time, it’s not about filling you with so much courage and hubris that you think you are unbreakable. Only the proud and the stupid think that is even possible. Instead, the Stoic seeks to develop the skills - the true strength - required to deal with a cruel world.

So much of what happens is out of our control: We lose people we love. We are financially ruined by someone we trusted. We put ourselves out there, put every bit of our effort into something, and are crushed when it fails. We are drafted to fight in wars, to bear huge taxes or familial burdens. We are passed over for the thing we wanted so badly. This can knock us down and hurt us. Yes.

Stoicism is there to help you recover when the world breaks you and, in the recovering, to make you stronger at a much, much deeper level. The Stoic heals themselves by focusing on what they can control: Their response. The repairing. The learning of the lessons. Preparing for the future.

This is not an idea exclusive to the West. There is a form of Japanese art called Kintsugi, which dates back to the 15th century. In it, masters repair broken plates and cups and bowls, but instead of simply fixing them back to their original state, they make them better. The broken pieces are not glued together, but instead fused with a special lacquer mixed with gold or silver. The legend is that the art form was created after a broken tea bowl was sent to China for repairs. But the returned bowl was ugly - the same bowl as before, but cracked. Kintsugi was invented as a way to turn the scars of a break into something beautiful.

You can see in this tea bowl, which dates to the Edo period and is now in the Freer Gallery, how the gold seams take an ordinary bowl and add to it what look like roots, or even blood vessels. This plate, also from the Edo period, was clearly a work of art in its original form. Now it has subtle gold filling on the edges where it was clearly chipped and broken by use. This dark tea bowl, now in the Smithsonian, is accented with what look like intensely real lightning bolts of gold. The bowl below it shows that more than just precious metals can improve a broken dish, as the artist clearly inserted shards of an entirely different bowl to replace the original’s missing pieces.

In Zen culture, impermanence is a constant theme. They would have agreed with Hemingway that the world tries to break the rigid and the strong. We are like cups - the second we are made we are simply waiting to be shattered - by accident, by malice, by stupidity or bad luck. The Zen solution to this perilous situation is to embrace it, to be okay with the shattering, perhaps even to seek it out. The idea of wabi-sabi is precisely that. Coming to terms with our imperfections and weaknesses and finding beauty in that.

So both East and West - Stoicism and Buddhism - arrive at similar insights. We’re fragile, they both realize. But out of this fragility, one of the philosophies realizes there is the opportunity for beauty. Hemingway’s prose rediscovers these insights and fuses them into something both tragic and breathtaking, empowering and humbling. The world will break us. It breaks everyone. It always has and always will.

Yet…The author will struggle with the ending of their book and want to quit. The recognition we sought will not come. The insurance settlement we so desperately needed will be rejected. The presentation we practiced for will begin poorly and be beset by technical difficulties. The friend we cherished will betray us. The haunting scene in "A Farewell to Arms" can happen, a child stillborn and a wife lost in labor - and still tragically happens far too often, even in the developed world.

The question is, as always, what will we do with this? How will we respond? Because that’s all there is. The response. his is not to dismiss the immense difficulty of any of these ordeals. It is rather, to first, be prepared for them - humble and aware that they can happen. Next, it is the question: Will we resist breaking? Or will we accept the will of the universe and seek instead to become stronger where we were broken?

Death or Kintsugi? Fragile or, to use that wonderful phrase from Nassim Taleb, 'Antifragile?' Not unbreakable. Not resistant. Because those that cannot break, cannot learn, and cannot be made stronger for what happened. Those that will not break are the ones who the world kills. Not unbreakable. Instead, unruinable."
Freely download "A Farewell To Arms", by Ernest Hemingway, here:

Free Download: Joseph Chilton Pearce, "The Crack in the Cosmic Egg"

"The Crack in the Cosmic Egg: 
New Constructs of Mind and Reality"
by Joseph Chilton Pearce

"The classic work that shaped the thought of a generation with its powerful insights into the true nature of mind and reality.

• Defines culture as a "cosmic egg" structured by the mind's drive for logical ordering of its universe.
• Provides techniques allowing individuals to break through the vicious circle of logic-based systems to attain expanded ways of creative living and learning.

The sum total of our notions of what the world is - and what we perceive its full potential to be - form a shell of rational thought in which we reside. This logical universe creates a vicious circle of reasoning that robs our minds of power and prevents us from reaching our true potential. To step beyond that circle requires a centering and focus that today's society assaults on every level. Through the insights of Teilhard, Tillich, Jung, Jesus, Carlos Castaneda, and others, Joseph Chilton Pearce provides a mode of thinking through which imagination can escape the mundane shell of current construct reality and leap into a new phase of human evolution.

This enormously popular New Age classic is available to challenge the assumptions of readers and help them develop their potential through new creative modes of thinking. With a masterful synthesis of recent discoveries in physics, biology, and psychology, Pearce reveals the extraordinary relationship of mind and reality and nature's blueprint for a self-transcending humanity."
Freely download "The Crack In The Cosmic Egg", by Joseph Hilton Pearce, here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico. Thanks for stopping by!

“I Know How to Live… I Don’t Know How to Die”

“I Know How to Live… I Don’t Know How to Die”
by Bill Bonner

“I’ve never done this before…” The woman on the bed was almost a skeleton. The flesh had already gone from her. What was left was an 86-year-old empty tube – shriveled, bent, used up. “I know how to live,” she said. “I don’t know how to die. I don’t know what I’m supposed to think or what I’m supposed to do.”

“Don’t worry about it,” we advised. “It’ll come naturally. Do you need anything?” “Need anything? I need nothing at all. Absolutely nothing. I’m dying. And I have everything I need to do it.” “How about some more pain medication?” “No. I don’t want any. I am only going to do this once. I don’t want to get doped up. I don’t want to miss anything.”

Heaven with Tobacco Fields: People who are dying have a status somewhere between Nobel Prize winners and mobsters. We are reluctant to contradict them. We remember a scene from childhood: We had gone to visit a dying uncle, Edward. Like all our relatives, he was a tobacco farmer. But now the plant he had cared for all his life was killing him: he had lung cancer. Other relatives had gathered at the house to say goodbye. The mood was gloomy, dark… quiet. But the conversation, in early spring, ran in a familiar direction – toward the weather and soil conditions. “They won’t be planting tobacco where I’m going,” said Uncle Edward.

The group fell silent. Some looked down at the floor. Some shuffled toward the kitchen. But Agnes, a cousin, challenged him. “How do you know where you’re going or what they’re doing there?” This enlivened and emboldened the confrérie of tobacco growers. “Yeah, for all we know they’re pulling the plants already,” said one, glancing out the window to see if the rain had stopped. (The plants were “pulled” from the nursery beds for transplanting in the fields. We particularly disliked pulling them because black snakes enjoyed the warm of the gauze-like covering and slithered among the plants.)

The 12-year-old in the group – your editor – forever admired his cousin Agnes. She could see the truth and had the courage to speak it. None of us knew what happened after death. Why not tobacco farming? We tried to imagine Heaven with tobacco fields. It was so implausible that we had a hard time with it. But we persisted. Rows of the green plants, tended by generations of deceased farmers. The sun must not be so hot in Heaven, we concluded, for there was nothing heavenly about the scorching summer sun when you were cutting tobacco. The ghost farmers must hoe each row… and “top” the plants to remove the flower and force the growth to the leaves, just as we did in the Maryland fields. At the end of the day, sweat-stained and tired, they must gather around their pickup trucks – one foot up on the running board, an elbow on the raised knee, with a cigarette in the right hand.

An Unexplored Mystery: The other professions must have their quarters, too… Wheat farmers need broader fields. Cobblers could enjoy their trade, too. Why not? Heaven – immeasurably large – could have a place for everybody. Even bankers and lawyers might find a spot. For a moment, we imagined what it must be like, with mechanics tightening their bolts and dairymen milking their cows. But if everybody did in Heaven what he did on Earth, what was the point of it? The juvenile mind, like its adult successor, stalled.

Half a century later, it is still stopped where it was left – like a tractor abandoned on the edge of a field, with trees grown up between the wheels. Rust has covered the hood. The tires, cracked from the sun, have flattened and disintegrated. It has moved not an inch forward… leaving the mystery of Heaven completely unexplored. “Well, you’re not dead yet,” we replied. “How about a little apple juice?”

The death rattle began two days later. The goodbyes have all been said. Prayers have been offered. Undertakers contacted. A church put on alert. Remembrances shared. Toward the end there was no one there to share the remembrances with. The spirit seemed to have packed up and moved out before the body got the message. Life always come to an end, sooner or later. New technology offers delays, unfounded hope, and stays of execution – but never a full pardon.”
Bread, "Everything I Own"

"If you were going to die soon and had only one phone call 
you could make, who would you call and what would you say? 
And why are you waiting?"
- Stephen Levine

"Saying Goodbye..."

"The Human Condition"

"The Human Condition"
by Meanings of Life

“We are all of us born, live and die in the shadow of a 
giant question mark that refers to three questions: 
Where do we come from? Why? And where, oh where, are we going?”
- Tennessee Williams

"Man remains largely unknown of himself. What are we, in our innermost recesses, behind our names and our conventional opinions? What are we behind the things we do in our lives, behind what we see in others and what others see in us, or even behind things science says we are? Is man the crazy being about whom Carl Gustav Jung spoke ironically, when he demanded a man to treat? Is man the Dr. Jerkyll that contains in himself a criminal Mister Hyde, and more than a personality, and contradictory feelings?

Are we the result of our dreams, as Prospero, in the Shakespeare’s “The Tempest” asked? Are we able to raise our nature and become the dignified beings evoked by Pico de la Mirandola (It’s the seeds a man cultivates that "will mature and bear fruit in him. If vegetative, he will become a plant; if sensual, he will become brutish; if rational, he will reveal himself a heavenly being; if intellectual, he will be an angel and the son of God")?

Almost two centuries ago, Spencer characterized the contradictory features of natives from the African east coast: "He has at the same time good character and hard heart; he is a fighter, conscientious, good in a precise moment, and cruel, pitiless and violent in the other; superstitious and rudely irreligious; brave and pusillanimous, servile and dominator, stubborn and at the same time fickle, relied to honor views, but without signs of honesty, niggard and economical, but careless and improvident".

It’s probably a good definition of a certain primitive man, to whom we are undoubtedly connected. But we are also cultural and ethic beings. We are able to change our values and behaviors. As William James says, human beings can change their lives through their mental attitudes. We can grow ethically. We can dominate part of our own instincts. And that’s why we can be different from the indigenous African described by Spencer. More: our thought dignifies us ("All the dignity of man consists in thought", says Blaise Pascal). We are, in many senses, the conscience of the Universe, and its utmost elaborated product. As Edgar Morin says, "in the core of our singularity, we carry not only all the humanity, all the life, but also all the cosmos, including its mystery, present in the heart of our beings".

We are creators, creator beings, and, in a sense, we can create, or recreate ourselves. All goes through our mind. It is our mind that constructs our truths and errors, and also the most sublime things in the Universe. And yet evil and stupidity exist in us. Sometimes we fall, we are stroked, and life reveals its cruelty, and we may think as Mark Twain, and say that it was a pity that Noah had arrived late to the ark. In our innermost recesses, there is also the cruelty and the inhumanity of life. Charles Darwin showed that we are descendants of inferior life forms: we have been long ago a "bush and a bird, and a fish silently swimming in the waters", to use the poetic terms used by Empedocles in its "Purifications."

From a genetic and evolutionist point of view, we contain in us the survival reflexes and the aggressiveness of the life forms that preceded us: "All that threatened the cave man - dangers, darkness, famine, thirst, ghosts, demons – all has passed to the interior of our souls, all troubles us, grieves us, threatens us from inside." (Morin). Besides, we are also beings that can differ significantly from each other. We are equal, but also different. "The awake involve a common world, but dreams deviate each one to its own world," Heraclites rather enigmatically declares. He thought we can’t help sleeping and living in illusory worlds, even when awake.

For all these reasons, Blaise Pascal’s celebrated definition of the human being, despite the hard language, not exactly agreeable to our ears, is undoubtedly one of the most powerful that can be applied to the rather unknown being that we can’t help being to ourselves: "What a chimera then is man! What a novelty, what a monster, what a chaos, what a contradiction, what a prodigy! Judge of all things, imbecile worm of the earth; depositary of truth, a sink of uncertainty and error; the pride and refuse of the universe! Who will unravel this tangle?"
This website no longer exists, sadly...

"You Must Not Be Frightened..."

"How should we be able to forget those ancient myths that are at the beginning of all peoples, the myths about dragons that at the last moment turn into princesses; perhaps all the dragons of our lives are princesses who are only waiting to see us act, just once, with beauty and courage. Perhaps everything terrible is in its deepest being something helpless that needs our help. So you must not be frightened if a sadness rises up before you larger than any you have ever seen; if a restiveness, like light and cloud shadows, passes over your hands and over all you do. You must think that something is happening with you, that life has not forgotten you, that it holds you in its hand; it will not let you fall."
- Rainer Maria Rilke

"This Day In History St. Patrick Dies"

"This Day In History St. Patrick Dies"
by History.com

"On March 17, 461, St. Patrick dies at Saul, Downpatrick, Ireland. Today, the late Christian missionary, bishop and apostle of Ireland is honored with the holiday of St. Patrick’s Day on the anniversary of his death. How St. Patrick died is unknown, though he is believed to be in his 70s at the time of his death. Some sources report he was born in 385, but others state it was 387. In death, he was unofficially declared a saint.

Much of what is known about Patrick’s legendary life comes from the "Confessio", a book he wrote during his last years. Born in Roman Britain (likely in what is now Wales, western England or southern Scotland) to a well-to-do Christian family of Roman citizenship, Patrick was captured and likely enslaved at age 16 by Irish marauders. For the next six years, he worked as a herder in Ireland, turning to a deepening religious faith for comfort. Following the counsel of a voice he heard in a dream one night, he escaped and found passage on a ship to Britain, where he was eventually reunited with his family.

According to the "Confessio", while in Britain Patrick had another dream, in which an individual named Victoricus gave him a letter, entitled “The Voice of the Irish.” As he read it, Patrick seemed to hear the voices of Irishmen pleading him to return to their country and walk among them once more. After studying for the priesthood, Patrick was ordained a bishop. He arrived in Ireland around 432 and began preaching the Gospel, converting many thousands of Irish people and building churches around the country. After 40 years of living in poverty, teaching, traveling and working tirelessly, Patrick died in Saul, where he had built his first church.

Since that time, many legends have grown up around Patrick. The patron saint of Ireland is said to have baptized hundreds of people on a single day and to have used a shamrock to describe the Holy Trinity. In art, he is often portrayed trampling on snakes, in accordance with the belief that he drove those reptiles out of Ireland. In reality, research has found snakes were not in the country to begin with."

Dan, I Allegedly, "The Car Market Is Collapsing"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 3/17/26
"The Car Market Is Collapsing"
"The automotive industry is facing serious problems in today’s economy, and consumers are paying the price. In this video, I break down shocking reports of deceptive car dealership practices, hidden fees, false advertising, and the recent crackdown involving dozens of dealerships. From misleading pricing to forced add-ons and financing traps, buying a car has become more complicated—and risky—than ever before. We also dive into the bigger economic picture, including delays in online car sales platforms, rising business costs, layoffs, and what’s really happening with electric vehicle inventory. If you're thinking about buying a car, investing in a business, or trying to protect your money in this unstable economy, this is information you need to know right now."
Comments here:

"How It Really is"

(With U.S. debt now at $38.9 trillion, the cost of the interest bill
alone on all that borrowing is about $3 billion a day. A quick calculation:
the USA is paying out over a trillion in interest this year.)

"People Reveal What Is Really Happening In Iran’s Drone War"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 3/17/26
"People Reveal What Is 
Really Happening In Iran’s Drone War"
"The numbers don't lie. Iran builds drones for $20,000. America shoots them down with $2,000,000 missiles. Every single time. And Iran has hundreds of thousands of them. While Washington tells you we're winning, our own military analysts are warning we could run out of interceptor missiles within weeks. A billion dollars a day is being spent on this war, with no congressional approval, no vote, and no plan. Meanwhile, a sitting congressman was caught buying defense stocks the same week the Pentagon announced a 300,000 drone purchase. Eleven billion dollars in six days. Enough to fund healthcare for millions. Instead it's gone. And the casualty numbers? The government is lying about those too. A deleted job posting at Dover Air Force Base tells you everything you need to know. Veterans who served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now watch this unfold are speaking out. Korea. Vietnam. Afghanistan. Iraq. Zero victories. And now Iran. When does it stop?"
Comments here:

"Col. Douglas Macgregor, 'Now There’s No Way Out.' 45,000 Iranian Missiles Ready"

World Conflict Analysis, 3/17/26
"Col. Douglas Macgregor: 
'Now There’s No Way Out.' 45,000 Iranian Missiles Ready"

"Retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor warns that the confrontation between the United States, Iran, and Israel may have reached a point where de-escalation is becoming increasingly difficult. According to Macgregor, the scale of Iran’s missile arsenal is one of the most underestimated factors shaping the conflict. He points to claims that Iran and its regional partners could have access to tens of thousands of missiles and rockets, forming a layered deterrence system capable of striking military bases, cities, and strategic infrastructure across the region. This includes not only Iran’s domestic arsenal but also capabilities distributed among allied groups, creating a multi-front threat environment.

Macgregor argues that such a buildup changes the nature of the war. Instead of a short, decisive campaign, any conflict could turn into a prolonged exchange of strikes, where even advanced air defense systems struggle to intercept large volumes of incoming missiles. He also emphasizes that once both sides are committed and heavily armed, political leaders may find themselves with limited exit options. Each new strike increases pressure to respond, creating a cycle that is difficult to break without appearing to concede. Another concern is the broader regional impact. Large-scale missile exchanges could disrupt critical infrastructure and energy routes - especially near key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz - with consequences for global markets and security.

Macgregor’s warning is stark: when military capabilities reach this scale and escalation is already underway, conflicts can become self-sustaining, driven more by momentum than by clear strategic goals."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
OPTM, 3/17/26
"Iran Just Struck Knesset Building 
Filled With Israeli Government Ministers"
Comments here:

"China Eyes Taiwan as U.S. Far East Missile Defense Relocated to Mid-East"

"China Eyes Taiwan as U.S. Far East
 Missile Defense Relocated to Mid-East"
by Benjamin Bartee

"I predicted long before the Iran war kicked off in March that 2026 would be the year the CCP pulls the trigger on its long-awaited incursion across the Taiwan Strait to reclaim what it views as its wayward island redoubt. Among other reasons for my crystal-ball prophecy, Xi Jinping himself essentially declared the conquest as a Chinese New Year’s Resolution of sorts, describing the forced “reunification” of Taiwan with China as “unstoppable.”
Full screen recommended.
I can find no indication that my prediction was flawed, and I stand behind it. In the CCP’s eyes, the unfolding geopolitical crisis in Iran may provide a golden opportunity to initiate hostilities while the United States military is distracted and stretched thin. No matter how massive the superpower, fighting a three-front war in far-off regions is usually a recipe for disaster.

In the event of such an invasion, Taiwan’s ostensible regional allies in the neoliberal fold likely wouldn’t be willing or able to do much to thwart China either. Via Asia Times: “If the Iran conflict continues for an extended period, lasting months rather than weeks, while casualties mount and the US appears bogged down, Chinese President Xi Jinping might be tempted to finally make good on his threat to move against Taiwan, a “reunification” he recently characterized as “unstoppable.”

China might assess that its military overmatch around Taiwan is such that the US can’t amass enough force to forestall or respond to a Chinese assault without suffering heavy losses. And if the Americans don’t take the lead, no other regional nation will, not even nearby Japan. Despite impressive niche capabilities, the Japan Self Defense Force can’t fight a major war on its own…

The Iran conflict compounds the distraction and resource drain. Whatever the US does in Iran or provides to Ukraine is not available for a fight in the Western Pacific, and the US military may eventually need to draw on stocks allocated for an Asia-Pacific contingency… But maybe US allies can make up the difference? Unlikely. Japan is remilitarizing, but has a long way to go. South Korea is a huge arms producer but focuses on North Korea, and it’s questionable what Seoul would do in the event of a Taiwan conflict.

Leftist President Lee Jae-myung and his administration are reluctant to anger China. And President Lee himself said, while a candidate, that what China did to Taiwan was not South Korea’s business.” Reports over the past week indicate the recent movement of Patriot missiles and other munitions out of South Korea to fortify the U.S. posture in the Persian Gulf.

Via Reuters:“South Korea can deter any threats from North Korea even ​if Washington redeploys weapons stationed in the country, President Lee Jae Myung said on Tuesday, after reports that U.S. missile defense systems were ‌being sent to the Middle East. Reports on shifting key U.S. military assets have sparked concern in Asia about the potential gaps in regional defences if Washington diverts ships and missiles used to deter military flexing by China and North Korea to other theaters.

“It appears that there is controversy recently over U.S. Forces in Korea shipping some weapons, such as artillery batteries and air-defense weapons, out ​of the country,” Lee said in a cabinet meeting, noting that while Seoul had expressed opposition, it was not in a position to make ​demands. Lee said the removal of some U.S. weapons from the country “does not hinder deterrence strategy towards North Korea,” noting South Korea’s defense spending ⁠and conventional capabilities far exceeded those of North Korea.

South Korea hosts a major U.S. military presence in combined defense against nuclear-armed North Korea, with about 28,500 troops ​and surface-to-air defense systems... South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said on Friday that U.S. and South Korean militaries were discussing the possible redeployment of some U.S. Patriot ​missile defense systems to the conflict in the Middle East. South Korean media reported some missile batteries had been shipped out of Osan Air Base and were likely to be redeployed to U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, though South Korean authorities have not confirmed these reports.”

Reporting over the weekend indicates recently increased Chinese aerial activity near Taiwan, likely to probe defenses and gauge the diplomatic response from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, et al., and possibly to flex some muscle ahead of Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing. Via Politico: “Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defense ministry said Sunday, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers. The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported.” A few considerations should China pull the trigger:

• Could the United States and its allies realistically fight a three-front war in Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Orient?
• Could American allies, which have long neglected their own defense spending as they have enjoyed the warm embrace of the American “security umbrella,” as it’s known, pull their own weight in each theater?
• Does the global oil squeeze help or hurt China’s military capacity, given that almost all of its oil supplies come through the Strait of Hormuz?
• In the event of escalation, should the U.S. et al. rush to defend Taiwan, would Chinese allies like North Korea and Pakistan, also both nuclear powers, join in?"

Bill Bonner, "War at the Improv"

"War at the Improv"
by Bill Bonner

"Oil is to the real economy what credit is to Wall Street."
- Tom Dyson (or words to that effect)

Youghal, Ireland - "Today is St. Patrick’s Day, a holiday here in Ireland. A time for the ‘wearing of the green.’ Many downtown areas will be closed off for parades. But here at Bonner Private Research, our dot-connecting mission continues as usual. And...whoa...what a show. We are looking at some marvelous, exploding dots...like fireworks thrown up into the air, bursting into hundreds of sparkling cinders before they fall to the ground. And any one of them could fall into a tank of jet fuel. What an exciting time! And in this incendiary illumination we see the outlines of several great questions.

If Tom is right, we will soon get to see what effect a sudden uptick in oil prices will actually have. Will it send modern economies into recession? And when investors see it depressing corporate earnings, will it mean a crash in the stock market?

But that’s not all. There are also the strategic questions. Can Iran  actually control the Strait of Hormuz? Could its rockets and drones sink a US Navy warship? And what happens to modern civilization when its most precious commodity - its lifeblood - is suddenly much harder to get? Governments go broke? People go hungry? Riots? Revolutions?

MN Gordon adds ominous background music: "Skyrocketing oil prices are a noted precursor to declining economic activity. Higher gas prices are not just an inconvenient market fluctuation. They act as a regressive tax on every single human being who eats, moves, or buys things. When the price of gas spikes and the pumps run dry, the very foundation of the global economy crumbles."

The US strategic plan has still not been revealed. For many years, America’s generals warned against attacking Iran. It could control the Strait of Hormuz, they pointed out...which could have devastating consequences. As if to confirm our hypothesis - that Donald Trump’s historic mission (not his intention) is to isolate and weaken the US empire - POTUS rushed boldly in where others feared to tread.

And now, surprise! The Strait of Hormuz is closed to the US and Israel. And surprise again. Business Insider: "Sky-high gas prices are already hitting the economy. “When gas prices spike, commuting effectively becomes a pay cut,” one chief operating officer told us."

While a few employers say they’re softening their RTO stances amid rising gas prices, the vast majority are unlikely to change their in-office requirements, particularly in a cooling job market where many workers lack the leverage to push back. The latest increase is a reminder of how quickly surging gas prices can ripple through the economy. So what happens next?

Team Trump could announce victory...bring the troops home and stage a parade down 5th avenue. After all, they deserve to celebrate; they’ve ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear capacity twice! Trouble is, as long as Iran still blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will be a fake triumph. Already, the attack on Iran looks like an improv war…where the main protagonist makes it up as he goes along. And now, he can either end the war in what will look like another failure. Or, he can expand it (with footsoldiers, for example). Either way, it will probably hurt Republican chances in November elections.

Note that Iran doesn’t have to block all traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to succeed. The plausible threat of destroying a tanker or two is enough to greatly reduce ready supplies of oil...and greatly increase fuel and fertilizer prices.

A further note: the idea of using US Navy escorts to free up shipping seems cockamamie. Ships are drone magnets. The Iranians might be able to destroy a US ship of the line, as well as the commercial traffic it is protecting. And even if the escort plan succeeded, there aren’t enough ships in the US Navy to uncork the bottleneck. Trump tried to solve this problem by inviting other nations to join in. But alienating friends and allies comes at a cost. So far, Italy, Spain, France, Norway, Canada, Japan, Australia and Germany have all wisely said ‘no’...other nations simply haven’t answered.

So, we may be looking at more than just a contest between Israel and the US on one side and Iran and its proxies on the other. We might also be looking at a major test for Team Trump and for the US empire…or even a major test for oil-fired civilization itself. Can it avoid a war that might cut it off from the very thing it needs most? More to come..."

Scott Ritter, "Nuclear War is Coming, Brace Yourself"

A Must-View!
Global War Analysis, 3/17/26
Scott Ritter, 3/17/26
"Nuclear War is Coming, Brace Yourself"

"Former UN weapons inspector and military analyst Scott Ritter warns that the confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel may be entering a far more intense and unpredictable phase. According to Ritter, recent developments suggest that what lies ahead could be more severe than anything seen so far in the conflict.

Ritter argues that Iran’s strategy is built around long-term endurance and escalation control, meaning it does not need a quick victory to achieve its objectives. Instead, by sustaining pressure through missile strikes, drones, and regional operations, Iran can gradually increase the cost for its adversaries over time. He also highlights the risk of multi-front escalation. The conflict could expand beyond a single battlefield, involving different regions across the Middle East and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation between multiple actors. Another key concern is the global impact. If tensions escalate further - especially around critical energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz - the consequences could extend beyond the region, affecting oil markets, global trade, and international security.

Ritter’s central message is a warning: wars often reach tipping points where events accelerate rapidly and unpredictably. If escalation continues, the conflict could shift into a phase where control becomes much harder and the risks much higher."
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"How the War With Iran Will Trigger a Global Financial Crisis (w/Yanis Varoufakis)"

"How the War With Iran Will Trigger a 
Global Financial Crisis (w/Yanis Varoufakis)"
The Chris Hedges Report, 3/17/26

"Alongside the death and destruction occurring all throughout the Middle East as the war in Iran rages on, the rest of the world is experiencing the economic blowback of the conflict. Oil and natural gas prices are skyrocketing in the West as well as the Global South following the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Yanis Varoufakis, economist and former Greek finance minister, joins The Chris Hedges Report to explain how the war will continue to mangle the global economy and what countries can expect in the coming months. “The vast majority of the very people, the blue collar workers that voted Trump in, are suffering exorbitant increases in their transport costs. Let’s not forget that the average MAGA supporter, voter, travels 100 miles a day in very thirsty SUVs, cars, and that… increase in the gas price goes straight into their family budget,” Varoufakis explains.

“Europe is in an awful situation,” Varoufakis says. “I was looking at electricity prices today across Europe and I saw that in Spain, a kilowatt hour was worth 35 euros, something like 40 bucks. In Germany, it was 98. And in my godforsaken country, Greece, it was 144 euros. So it is not just that a wave has hit us in Europe from this recessionary tsunami. It has hit us asymmetrically. And the asymmetries are due to the relative power of the local oligarchies.”

"Bombing Japan, A Retrospective and the Implications for Iran"

Click image for larger size.
Destruction of the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
 radar systems in early March 2026, stationed in the UAE, at Al Ruwais
"Bombing Japan, A Retrospective 
and the Implications for Iran"
by Larry C. Johnson

"Anyone who thinks a massive bombing campaign will compel the Iranians to surrender and dump the mullahs, does not know the history of Japan, the United States and the Soviet Union in 1945. The US bombing of Japan started in earnest in March 1945 and continued through August 8, 1945. The conventional bombing killed an estimated 500,000 Japanese - mostly civilians. The atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August added as many as 226,000 to that macabre sum. Yet, it was not the bombings alone that prodded Japan to surrender… It was the Soviet entry into the war that forced Japan to surrender.

In doing this comparison, consider this: Iran is almost 5 times the geographic size of Japan, and Iran has 91 million people compared to Japan’s population in January 1945, which was an estimated 72 million.

Below is a chronological list of major US bombing raids on Japan during 1945, focusing on the strategic air campaign conducted by the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF), primarily using B-29 Superfortress bombers. This includes both conventional firebombing raids (incendiary attacks on urban areas) and the atomic bombings. The list is derived from historical records and focuses on raids with documented impacts; smaller or reconnaissance missions are omitted. Estimated killed figures refer to civilian and military deaths directly from the raids (immediate and short-term from injuries/fire/radiation), often including ranges due to varying historical assessments. Many estimates are approximate because of the destruction of records, population displacement, and challenges in post-war accounting. Where specific figures are unavailable, I’ve noted “not specified” or provided context from aggregated data:

March 9-10, 1945: Tokyo (Operation Meetinghouse, firebombing). Estimated killed: 80,000–100,000.

March 11, 1945: Nagoya (firebombing). Estimated killed: Minimal (fewer than 200; raid was ineffective due to high winds dispersing incendiaries).

March 13-14, 1945: Osaka (firebombing). Estimated killed: 3,000–4,000.

March 16-17, 1945: Kobe (firebombing). Estimated killed: 8,000–8,841.

March 18-19, 1945: Nagoya (firebombing). Estimated killed: 1,000–2,000.

April 13, 1945: Tokyo arsenal district (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (raid targeted industrial areas; casualties lower than major urban raids, likely hundreds).

April 15, 1945: Tokyo region, including Kawasaki and Yokohama (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (industrial focus; estimated hundreds to low thousands).

May 13, 1945: Nagoya (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: 3,866.

May 16-17, 1945: Nagoya (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (follow-up raid; likely hundreds).

May 23, 1945: Southern Tokyo (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (urban raid; estimates around 500–1,000).

May 25, 1945: Central Tokyo, including Tokyo Imperial Palace area (firebombing). Estimated killed: 3,000–4,000.

May 29, 1945: Yokohama (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: Over 1,000 (up to 2,600).

June 1, 1945: Osaka (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: 3,960.

June 5, 1945: Kobe (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: Not specified (follow-up; likely 1,000–2,000).

June 7, 1945: Osaka (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (likely hundreds).

June 15, 1945: Osaka and Amagasaki (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (combined; around 500–1,000).

June 17, 1945: Hamamatsu, Kagoshima, Ōmuta, Yokkaichi (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (dispersed; low hundreds per city).

June 19, 1945: Fukuoka, Shizuoka, Toyohashi (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (similar to above).

June 28, 1945: Moji, Nobeoka, Okayama, Sasebo (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 1, 1945: Kumamoto, Kure, Shimonoseki, Ube (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 3, 1945: Himeji, Kōchi, Takamatsu, Tokushima (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 6, 1945: Akashi, Chiba, Kōfu, Shimizu (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 9, 1945: Gifu, Sakai, Sendai, Wakayama (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 12, 1945: Ichinomiya, Tsuruga, Utsunomiya, Uwajima (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 16, 1945: Hiratsuka, Kuwana, Numazu, Ōita (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 19, 1945: Chōshi, Fukui, Hitachi, Okazaki (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 26, 1945: Matsuyama, Ōmuta, Tokuyama (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

July 28, 1945: Aomori, Ichinomiya, Tsu, Uji-Yamada, Ōgaki, Uwajima (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

August 1, 1945: Hachiōji, Mito, Nagaoka, Toyama (firebombing). Estimated killed: 1,000–2,000 (Toyama had highest destruction; around 1,500 killed there alone).

August 5, 1945: Imabari, Maebashi, Nishinomiya, Saga (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.

August 6, 1945: Hiroshima (atomic bombing). Estimated killed: 70,000–146,000 (including later deaths from radiation by end of 1945).

August 9, 1945: Nagasaki (atomic bombing). Estimated killed: 40,000–80,000 (including later deaths from radiation by end of 1945).

The good news for Iran - if you dare to call it good news - is that the daily bombings by Israel and the United States have caused only a fraction of the fatalities Japan experience during a six-month bombing campaign.

Russia’s (Soviet Union’s) entry into the Pacific theater of the war was a critical factor in Japan’s surrender, eroding any remaining hope for negotiation and exposing military vulnerabilities. While intertwined with the atomic bombings, it likely accelerated the decision by making total defeat inevitable. In the final months of World War II, Japan was facing mounting defeats in the Pacific, with US forces closing in and a devastating strategic bombing campaign underway. By mid-1945, Japanese leaders were seeking ways to end the war on terms short of unconditional surrender, as outlined in the Potsdam Declaration (July 26, 1945). A key part of this strategy involved approaching the Soviet Union - then neutral under the 1941 Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact - to act as a mediator with the Allies. However, at the Yalta Conference in February 1945, Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin had secretly agreed with US President Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill to enter the war against Japan within three months of Germany’s surrender (which occurred on May 8, 1945).

The atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, killed tens of thousands and shocked Japan’s leadership, but it did not immediately prompt surrender. On August 8, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan, abrogating the neutrality pact. The next day, August 9, over 1.5 million Soviet troops launched a massive invasion (Operation August Storm) into Japanese-occupied Manchuria, Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, and northern Korea. This assault overwhelmed the Japanese Kwantung Army, which numbered around 700,000 but was undermanned and poorly equipped. The Soviets advanced rapidly, capturing vast territories and inflicting heavy casualties - estimates suggest 84,000 Japanese killed and over 600,000 captured by the operation’s end. The same day as the invasion’s start, the US dropped a second atomic bomb on Nagasaki.

The Soviet declaration of war and subsequent invasion played a significant role in Japan’s decision to surrender, often viewed as a “twin shock” alongside the atomic bombings. Japan had pinned its strategy on Soviet mediation to secure a conditional peace, preserving the emperor’s status and avoiding full occupation. Soviet entry into the war shattered this illusion, signaling that no neutral third party would intervene. As noted in declassified documents and historical analyses, Japan’s Supreme War Council was divided post-Hiroshima, with some hardliners still resisting surrender in hopes of Soviet assistance.

The invasion opened a new northern front, threatening Japan’s continental empire and homeland. The Kwantung Army’s rapid collapse - losing Manchuria (a key industrial and resource base) in days - was a psychological blow, demonstrating Japan’s inability to sustain a prolonged defense. This compounded the exhaustion from US island-hopping and bombing campaigns, making continued resistance futile. Soviet forces also seized Sakhalin and the Kurils, cutting off potential retreat routes and supply lines.

In Hirohito’s August 15 surrender broadcast (the “Jewel Voice Broadcast”), he cited the atomic bombs but also alluded to the “new and most cruel bomb” and the broader strategic situation, which implicitly included the Soviet threat. A subsequent message to the armed forces on August 17 explicitly referenced Soviet entry as a reason for surrender. Military leaders, fearing Soviet occupation of the home islands, saw it as a tipping point. Even after the emperor’s decision, a failed coup by hardline officers on August 14–15 aimed to continue the war, underscoring the internal resistance that Soviet actions helped overcome.

My point in revisiting Japan’s decision to end the war is to emphasize the limitations of achieving a surrender or a regime change via bombing alone. Even the use of two atomic bombs did not persuade the Japanese to surrender… The entrance of Russian troops into the fray tipped the scales in Japan’s decision to accept unconditional surrender. Compared to what the US did to Japan in 1945, the current attack on Iran represents a much smaller scale of destruction… Thank God for that.

Meanwhile, the comparison photos at the top of this article show that Iran is exacting a high price on US radars and air defense systems. Unlike Japan, who was bleeding out in the final year of the war, Iran continues to hit key US military installations in the Persian Gulf while pummeling Israel’s economic and military infrastructure. As long as Iran maintains control of the Persian Gulf, this war will go on for several months."

"Alert! Fear Wave Imminent; Iran's Secret Weapon; 1,000 Drones Attack Moscow!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 3/17/26
"Alert! Fear Wave Imminent, Iran's Secret Weapon; 
1,000 Drones Attack Moscow!"
"Moscow was targeted by 1000 drones in 72 hours, Iran has threatened to unveil new weapons, middle east is in flames, China is making moves on Taiwan, UAE economy is collapsing, people are fleeing and using crypto to transfer money, Hormuz has likely been mined, meeting with Trump and XI postponed, major Russian oil depot has been destroyed and many other stories."
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Monday, March 16, 2026

"How Much Longer Can The US Economy Hang On? Oil Prices Will Rise Much Higher"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/16/26
"How Much Longer Can The US Economy Hang On?
 Oil Prices Will Rise Much Higher"
Comments here:

"Scott Ritter: The Iran Strategy That’s Defeating America"

Dialogue Works, 3/16/26
"Scott Ritter:
The Iran Strategy That’s Defeating America"
"A discussion analyzing U.S. war objectives against Iran and the realities on the battlefield. The conversation argues that efforts to suppress Iran’s missile capabilities, neutralize its navy, and strike its military-industrial base are largely ineffective due to flawed intelligence, decoys, and dispersed infrastructure. It also examines Iran’s strategy of survival, economic pressure, and targeted strikes on critical systems rather than mass casualties. The interview explores how prolonged conflict, regional politics, and rising economic costs could shape public opinion and ultimately determine the outcome of the war."
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Musical Interlude: Neil H, "Candlelight Dreams"

Neil H, "Candlelight Dreams"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Colorful NGC 1579 resembles the better known Trifid Nebula, but lies much farther north in planet Earth's sky, in the heroic constellation Perseus. About 2,100 light-years away and 3 light-years across, NGC 1579 is, like the Trifid, a study in contrasting blue and red colors, with dark dust lanes prominent in the nebula's central regions.
In both, dust reflects starlight to produce beautiful blue reflection nebulae. But unlike the Trifid, in NGC 1579 the reddish glow is not emission from clouds of glowing hydrogen gas excited by ultraviolet light from a nearby hot star. Instead, the dust in NGC 1579 drastically diminishes, reddens, and scatters the light from an embedded, extremely young, massive star, itself a strong emitter of the characteristic red hydrogen alpha light."

Chet Raymo, "Free As A Bird"

“Free As A Bird”
by Chet Raymo

“All afternoon I have been watching a pair of hummingbirds play about our porch. They live somewhere nearby, though I haven’t found their nest. They are attracted to our hummingbird feeder, which we keep full of sugar water. What perfect little machines they are! No other bird can perform their tricks of flight – flying backwards, hovering in place. Zip. Zip. From perch to perch in a blur of iridescence. If you want a symbol of freedom, the hummingbird is it. Exuberant. Unpredictable. A streak of pure fun. It is the speed, of course, that gives the impression of perfect spontaneity. The bird can perform a dozen intricate maneuvers more quickly than I can turn my head.

Is the hummingbird’s apparent freedom illusory, a biochemically determined response to stimuli from the environment? Or is the hummingbird’s flight what it seems to be, willful and unpredictable? If I can answer that question, I will be learning as much about myself as about the hummingbird. So I watch. And I consider what I know of biochemistry. The hummingbird is awash in signals from its environment – visual, olfactory, auditory and tactile cues that it processes and responds to with lightning speed.

How does it do it? Proteins, mostly. Every cell of the hummingbird’s body is a buzzing conversation of proteins, each protein a chain of hundreds of amino acids folded into a complex shape like a piece of a three-dimensional jigsaw puzzle. Shapes as various as the words of a human vocabulary. An odor molecule from a blossom, for example, binds to a protein receptor on a cell membrane of the hummingbird’s olfactory organ – like a jigsaw-puzzle piece with its neighbor. This causes the receptor molecule to change that part of its shape that extends inside the cell. Another protein now binds with the new configuration of the receptor, and changes its own shape. And so on, in a sequence of shapeshifting and binding – called a signal-transduction cascade – until the hummingbird’s brain “experiences” the odor.

Now appropriate signals must be sent from the brain to the body – ion flows established along neural axons, synapses activated. Wing muscles must respond to direct the hummingbird to the source of nourishment. Tens of thousands of proteins in a myriad of cells talk to each other, each protein genetically prefigured by the hummingbird’s DNA to carry on its conversation in a particular part of the body. All of this happens continuously, and so quickly that to my eye the bird’s movements are a blur.

There is much left to learn, but this much is clear: There is no ghost in the machine, no hummingbird pilot making moment by moment decisions out of the whiffy stuff of spirit. Every detail of the hummingbird’s apparently willful flight is biochemistry. Between the hummingbird and myself there is a difference of complexity, but not of kind. If humans are the lords of terrestrial creation, it is because of the huge tangle of nerves that sits atop our spines.

So what does this mean about human freedom? If we are biochemical machines in interaction with our environments, in what sense can we be said to be free? What happens to “free will”? Perhaps the most satisfying place to look for free will is in what is sometimes called chaos theory. In sufficiently complex systems with many feedback loops – the global economy, the weather, the human nervous system – small perturbations can lead to unpredictable large-scale consequences, though every part of the system is individually deterministic. This has sometimes been called – somewhat facetiously – the butterfly effect: a butterfly flaps its wings in China and triggers a cascade of events that results in a snowstorm in Chicago. Chaos theory has taught us that determinism does not imply predictability. Of course, this is not what philosophers traditionally meant by free will, but it is indistinguishable from what philosophers traditionally meant by free will. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.

I watch the hummingbirds at the feeder. Their hearts beat ten times faster than a human’s. They have the highest metabolic rate of any animal, a dozen times higher than a pigeon, a hundred times higher than an elephant. Hummingbirds live at the edge of what is biologically possible, and it’s that, the fierce intenseness of their aliveness, that makes them appear so exuberantly free. But there are no metaphysical pilots in these little flying machines. The machines are the pilots. You give me carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen and a few billion years of evolution, and I’ll give you a bird that burns like a luminous flame. The hummingbird’s freedom was built into the universe from the first moment of creation.”

'If You Are Alone..."

“Each must for himself alone decide what is right and what is wrong, and which course is patriotic and which isn’t. You cannot shirk this and be a man. To decide against your convictions is to be an unqualified and inexcusable traitor, both to yourself and to your country, let men label you as they may. If you alone of all the nation shall decide one way, and that way be the right way according to your convictions of the right, you have done your duty by yourself and by your country – hold up your head! You have nothing to be ashamed of.”
- Mark Twain

"If..."

“If Man were relieved of all superstition, and all prejudice, and had replaced these with a keen sensitivity to his real environment, and moreover had achieved a level of communication so simplified that one syllable could express his every thought, then he would have achieved the level of intelligence already achieved by his dog.”
~ Robert Brault

"James Van Der Beek’s Message We All Need To Hear"

 
James Van Der Beek has passed,
but what he said before he did we all need to hear.