Full screen recommended.
2002, "Believe"
So, we rise from the rubble...
StatCounter
Friday, February 20, 2026
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Massive stars, abrasive winds, mountains of dust, and energetic light sculpt one of the largest and most picturesque regions of star formation in the Local Group of Galaxies. Known as N11, the region is visible on the upper right of many images of its home galaxy, the Milky Way neighbor known as the Large Magellanic Clouds (LMC).
The above image was taken for scientific purposes by the Hubble Space Telescope and reprocessed for artistry by an amateur to win the Hubble’s Hidden Treasures competition. Although the section imaged above is known as NGC 1763, the entire N11 emission nebula is second in LMC size only to 30 Doradus. Studying the stars in N11 has shown that it actually houses three successive generations of star formation. Compact globules of dark dust housing emerging young stars are also visible around the image.”
Judge Napolitano, "INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern - Special Guest: John Kiriakou"
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 2/20/26
"INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern -
Special Guest: John Kiriakou"
Comments here:
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The Grayzone, 2/20/26
"'An Existential War': Prof. Mohammad Marandi
On The Coming US-Israeli Assault On Iran"
"Professor Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran joins The Grayzone's Max Blumenthal to discuss the looming US-Israeli regime change war on Iran and how his country will respond, both militarily and politically. Marandi forecasts economically devastating consequences, with an energy crisis brought on by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the possible collapse of Gulf family monarchies, and a militarily unmanageable environment for the Trump administration. While Trump reportedly considers a series of "symbolic" strikes to weaken Iran's negotiating hand, Marandi argues that Iran has no choice but to respond with maximum force."
Comments here:
"No Special Hurry..."
“The world breaks everyone, and afterward many are strong in the broken places. But those that will not break it kills. It kills the very good and the very gentle and the very brave impartially. If you are none of these you can be sure it will kill you too, but there will be no special hurry.”
- Ernest Hemingway, “A Farewell To Arms”
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Freely download “A Farewell To Arms”, by Ernest Hemingway, here:
“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”
“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”
by Simon Black
“In the early summer of 1914, Albert Einstein was about to start a prestigious new job as Director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics. The position was a big deal for the 35-year old Einstein – confirmation that he was one of the leading scientific minds in the world. And he was excited about what he would be able to achieve there. But within weeks of Einstein’s arrival, the German government canceled plans for the Institute; World War I had broken out, and all of Europe was gearing up for one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history.
The impact of the Great War was immeasurable. It cost the lives of 20 million people. It bankrupted entire nations. The war ripped two major European powers off the map – the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire – and deposited them in the garbage can of history. Austria-Hungary in particular boasted the second largest land mass in Europe, the third highest population, and one of the biggest economies. Plus it was a leading manufacturer of high-tech machinery. Yet by the end of the war it would no longer exist.
World War I also played a major role in the emergence of communism in Russia through the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Plus it was also a critical factor in the astonishing rise of the Nazi party in Germany. Without the Great War, Adolf Hitler would have been an obscure Austrian vagabond, and our world would be an entirely different place.
One of the most bizarre things about World War I was how predictable it was. Tensions had been building in Europe for years, and the threat of war was deemed so likely that most major governments invested heavily in detailed war plans. The most famous was Germany’s “Schlieffen Plan”, a military offensive strategy named after its architect, Count Alfred von Schlieffen. To describe the Schlieffen Plan as “comprehensive” is a massive understatement.
As AJP describes in his book "War by Timetable", the Schlieffen Plan called for rapidly moving hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front lines, plus food, equipment, horses, munitions, and other critical supplies, all in a matter of DAYS. Tens of thousands of trains were criss-crossing Europe during the mobilization, and as you can imagine, all the trains had to run precisely on time. A train that was even a minute early or a minute late would cause a chain reaction to the rest of the plan, affecting the time tables of other trains and other troop movements. In short, there was no room for error.
In many respects the Schlieffen Plan is still with us to this day – not with regards to war, but for monetary policy. Like the German General Staff more than a century ago, modern central bankers concoct the most complicated, elaborate plans to engineer economic victory. Their success depends on being able to precisely control the [sometimes irrational] behavior of hundreds of millions of consumers, millions of businesses, dozens of foreign nations, and trillions of dollars of capital. And just like the obtusely complex war plans from 1914, central bank policy requires that all the trains run on time. There is no room for error.
This is nuts. Economies are comprised of billions of moving pieces that are beyond anyone’s control and often have competing interests. A government that’s $30 trillion in debt requires cheap money (i.e. low interest rates) to stay afloat. Yet low interest rates are severely punishing for savers, retirees, and pension funds (including Social Security) because they’re unable to generate a sufficient rate of return to meet their needs.
Low interest rates are great for capital intensive businesses that need to borrow money. But they also create dangerous asset bubbles and can eventually cause a painful rise in inflation. Raise interest rates too high, however, and it could bankrupt debtors and throw the economy into a tailspin. Like I said, there’s no room for error – they have to find the perfect balance between growth and inflation.
Several years ago hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio summed it up perfectly when he said, “It becomes more and more difficult to balance those things as time goes on. It may not be a problem in the next year or two, but the risk of not getting it right increases with time. The risk of them getting it wrong is clearly growing. I truly hope they don’t get it wrong. But if they ever do, people may finally look back and wonder how we could have been so foolish to hand total control of our economy over to an unelected committee of bureaucrats with a mediocre track record… and then expect them to get it right forever. It’s pretty insane when you think about it."
As Einstein quipped at the height of World War I in 1917, “What a pity we don’t live on Mars so that we could observe the futile activities of human beings only through a telescope…”
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"It is common to assume that human progress affects everyone - that even the dullest man, in these bright days, knows more than any man of, say, the Eighteenth Century, and is far more civilized. This assumption is quite erroneous. The great masses of men, even in this inspired republic, are precisely where the mob was at the dawn of history. They are ignorant, they are dishonest, they are cowardly, they are ignoble. They know little if anything that is worth knowing, and there is not the slightest sign of a natural desire among them to increase their knowledge."
- H. L. Mencken, 1929
○
Freely download "Ideas And Opinions", by Albert Einstein, here:
"The Most Precious Gift I Have..."
"Bad things do happen; how I respond to them defines my character and the quality of my life. I can choose to sit in perpetual sadness, immobilized by the gravity of my loss, or I can choose to rise from the pain and treasure the most precious gift I have - life itself. "
- Walter Anderson
"Fear, Shame And Intimidation Are Chemical Weapons"
"Fear, Shame And Intimidation Are Chemical Weapons"
by Paul Rosenberg
"I rather hate to do this, but these first two paragraphs seem the best way to make this very important point. Apologies.
Imagine that some combination of circumstances end with you walking into a so-so bar, then accidentally causing some gigantic brute to spill his drink. Imagine also that this brute just learned that his girlfriend moved out, taking his money with her. The brute, towering over you, clenches his fists and start spewing threats. Your knees go weak, you can barely think or move… you try to back up but do it so clumsily that you’re grasping the edge of the bar to prevent yourself from falling. The brute hasn’t touched you, but you’ve already been seriously impacted. This happened because of well-known and well-studied chemicals… the chemicals now surging through your body.
So, wasn’t this fear a chemical weapon? It was, in fact, the bully’s first blow. The chemicals in question were generated by your own body, but they are chemicals just the same. Fear, then, is a chemical weapon. So are intimidation and shame. As are their cousins, guilt, blame, and probably a few others, depending upon how we write our definitions.
Robert Sapolsky, who studied the chemicals involved (he studied baboons, but their body chemistry and ours are nearly the same), finding that these “chemical weapons” resulted in more stress, higher blood pressure, a suppressed immune system, and reduced fertility. They are, then, potent weapons.
Our Unfortunate Biology: For both better and worse, we have a biological history. On one hand, that biological history has kept our species present and thriving, and so our complaints, however legitimate, are mitigated. On the other hand, our hormones, after who knows how many generations, have been trained to respond to things like authority and group identity. As a result they can release some very unpleasant and harmful chemicals into our bodies at certain times. And that’s something the manipulators of mankind have learned to use.
Our hormonal responses are not necessarily overwhelming, but they do have their effects… poisonous effects. By triggering fear, shame or intimidation (and the boundaries between them can be fuzzy), our hormones are triggered as well. And these hormones do more than just spur some of our thoughts and actions, they directly damage our health. And, by the way, people display higher IQs and do far better in executive control tests when they are feeling less rather than more intimidated. These chemical weapons make us dumber.
Western Guilt: We Westerners are especially susceptible to some of these influences because of our cultural traditions. These particular characteristics leave us vulnerable to guilt. As a result, we’ve developed political classes that are devoted to finding fault, assigning blame, and then offering paths to absolution that serve their private goals. In other words, our civilization has been attacked with the chemical weapons of intimidation and shame, purposely and at great length. Political types, especially, thrive upon assigning shame. It has worked very effectively for them, time after time after time.
Nonetheless, our hormones, however long trained, can be managed. Prize fighters, football players and other repeated participants in violent activities learn how to manage these chemical attacks. And so, we who are subjected to endless chemical attacks both large and small, must learn to manage our responses. We must train ourselves to not respond to them.
We can consider facts, then repair and improve our actions if they were harmful, but merely feeling these weaponized chemicals is not to be taken as any sort of verdict. In most cases it’s a hijacking of our internal chemistry, by and for professional abusers.
In point of fact, billions of dollars are spent every year, precisely to take advantage of our unfortunate biological history. And so I say again, we must train ourselves not to be moved by those chemical weapons… and particularly not to respond to guilt. It’s time for us to recognize this and get past it."
"A Companion..."
"Someone once told me that time is a predator that stalked us all our lives. But I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey, that reminds us to cherish every moment because they'll never come again. What we leave behind is not as important as how we live it. After all, Number One, we're only mortal."
- Captain Jean-Luc Picard
The Poet: Mary Oliver, "What I Have Learned So Far"
"What I Have Learned So Far"
"Meditation is old and honorable, so why should I
not sit, every morning of my life, on the hillside,
looking into the shining world? Because, properly
attended to, delight, as well as havoc, is suggestion.
Can one be passionate about the just, the
ideal, the sublime, and the holy, and yet commit
to no labor in its cause? I don't think so.
All summations have a beginning, all effect has a
story, all kindness begins with the sown seed.
Thought buds toward radiance. The gospel of
light is the crossroads of - indolence, or action.
Be ignited, or be gone."
~ Mary Oliver
"That's When It Counts..."
"It does not count if you believe in yourself when it's easy to believe in yourself. It counts when it's hard to believe in yourself, when it looks like the world's going to end and you've still got a long way to go. That's when it counts." - Iain Thomas
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Don Williams, "I Believe In You"
"The Dying Kitten"
"The Dying Kitten"
A brief report from the thin line between the living and the dying...
by Bill Bonner
Poitou, France - "We’ll hit the pause button today. We’ll catch up with the economy later. Herewith, for no particular reason and of no particular importance, is what happened last weekend. “Is it still alive?” Elizabeth wanted to know. The poor kitten, one of four she had rescued, had been brought into the office. There, she tried to nurse it…with extra rations and a warm blanket. But it wasn’t looking good.
The four kittens were just part of a litter at a neighbor’s house. Born in a barn to a stray cat, they weren’t likely to survive for very long. Elizabeth had grabbed those she could reach and brought them home. “I’ll try to find homes for them.” After a couple of days of feeding and cleaning up, three seemed to be doing well – playing in the yard…jumping…happily amusing themselves by getting into everything. The other one barely moved.
Death in the Fall: It was a beautiful fall weekend in this part of France. The sky was clear. The days were warm. And the nights were crisp, with a bright moon leaving long dark shadows across the lawn. A few of the trees have begun to shed their leaves…one or two of them danced on the breeze before disappearing into a ditch. But the bulk of the autumnal dying is still ahead.
On Sunday, we went to a special mass, a memorial to a local girl who died in an accident many years ago. “She was so pretty and so smart,” explained a friend. “Her father and mother adored her, of course. They expected her to take over the family business. “But when she died the whole family fell apart. They just couldn’t get over it. [The mother] started drinking. She was okay for a while, then she’d go on a binge. Finally, she got lung cancer from smoking so much. She was thin as a rail. They spent years fighting the cancer…alcoholism…and depression. She died last year.
“And the poor father. He used to be so outgoing. So sociable. He had a career in politics. Everyone liked him. And then, he just closed in on himself.” We saw him in church. Stooped. Gray. He looked much older than we remembered him. Along with many others, we had come to pay our respects to him. But as soon as the service was over, he slipped out of the side door.
Elizabeth coached us as we were making our way out of the church. “There’s Jean-Jacques. He lost his wife last year.” “What was her name?” “Francoise…be sure to say something to him. And there’s Marie-Juliette, don’t forget to ask how Rene is doing.” “Who’s Rene?” “Her husband…he had an operation; I can’t remember what kind of operation.” “Oh, you know…” Marie-Juliette replied. “He has good days and bad days… He had a heart operation; the surgeon was very pleased with it. But it didn’t seem to do Rene much good.”
Middle Ages: Friends gathered in front of the ancient church, built in the middle ages. We exchanged greetings…and thoughts that the old stones must have heard 1,000 times. “It’s hard getting old,” our friend continued. “So many things can go wrong. I think of all the people we know who are widows or widowers. And so many our age who can’t get around because they have some problem.” He listed a few. One neighbor spends his days in a wheelchair; he has a degenerative nerve disease. Another has such a serious case of arthritis, her hands and feet have twisted…making it difficult to walk. Still others – are dying of this or that. “I guess we are all going the same way, sooner or later. And I guess we should be grateful that we’re not there yet.”
Back at home, “how are the kittens doing,” we asked Elizabeth. “The vet said to keep the sick one warm…and bring them in tomorrow, if they’re still alive.” From across the road, Claude and Christine came to visit. Claude limped. He is much younger than we are, but much heavier…and a farmer. He’s had to stop work. One knee was repaired. He shifted his weight onto the other one. “Now they say I have to have my left knee operated on too, because I’ve been using it too much. Then, it will be another 6 months off work. I’m going a little crazy sitting around the house.” Christine nodded her head in agreement.
Deep France: “But did you hear the good news? Well, maybe it’s not good news for you. Your renters are leaving you. [We rent out two tiny houses on our property.] “What a shock. I saw that they were getting along well…but I was surprised. They’re moving out so they can move into a bigger place – together.”
The shock of it comes from the fact that one of our tenants is 62 years old and already retired. Paul, a disabled electrician, has an earring, which seems uncharacteristically fashionable for this area. This is ‘la France profonde’ – deep France – where the fashions of Paris seem far away…and generally unwelcome. Paul has a bad hip. The other renter is a young woman in her 30s. Heavily tattooed and extremely shy, she might have some disability of her own. Improbably, they got together.
Later in the day, Paul came over to ask permission to break the lease. Then, explaining his new living arrangement: “I didn’t expect it. But you never know. These things happen. I just hope it lasts.” “Best of luck to you both,” we said, as we raised a coffee mug.
By Sunday evening, the kitten was still breathing. But barely. We studied it. It was alive. Prodded, it could move its paws. It murmured once or twice. We watched as it struggled for breath. There is such a thin line between the living and the dead…sometime during the night, the line was crossed. Breathing stopped. These things happen."
"How It Really Is"
And how about you, Good Citizen? How's that job going? Current with all the bills? Health insurance affordable, keeping you well? Mortgage up to date? If you're in Appalachia I hope you're wisely spending that $750 they gave you to replace losing your home and everything you owned, if you could even apply... But of course your own food stamp balance and available cash balances look like this, right?
10 MILLION illegals in the last year alone automatically got $5,000 pre-paid debit cards and free transportation wherever they like? Free health care and housing? While 600,000 Americans are homeless, including 60,000 veterans, 22 of whom commit suicide EVERY day?! 150,000 drug overdoses in the last year! Trump said $359 BILLION for Ukraine, God knows how many BILLIONS to Israel, and you, Good Citizen, what do they do for YOU?!
WTF, and I repeat WTF is wrong with this country?!
"5 U.S. States on the Brink of Collapse - Which One Falls First?"
Full screen recommended.
Across The States, 2/20/26
"5 U.S. States on the Brink of Collapse -
Which One Falls First?"
"U.S. states on the brink of collapse isn’t just a headline - it reflects real financial strain, aging infrastructure, and shifting populations reshaping local economies across the country. Here’s the thing: mounting state debt and widening budget gaps are forcing difficult decisions about public services, transportation, and long-term planning. When resources tighten, schools, roads, and emergency systems often feel the pressure first.
What most people miss is how migration patterns connect to these challenges. Families and businesses relocate in search of affordability and opportunity, leaving some regions struggling to maintain tax revenue while others strain to keep up with growth. The reality is that smart policy, infrastructure investment, and responsible budgeting can change the trajectory. States that prioritize sustainable growth and efficient resource use are better positioned to stabilize services and protect their future. This video explores economic trends and policy pressures for educational purposes. Always compare multiple sources and form your own conclusions."
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Dan, I Allegedly, "He Promised Free Everything… Now You’re Paying for It"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 2/20/26
"He Promised Free Everything…
Now You’re Paying for It"
"New York City’s mayor promised free buses, free childcare, rent control, and more - but now he’s proposing a 9.5% property tax increase on homeowners and businesses. Who’s really paying for “free”? In this video, we break down the math behind the promises, the growing budget deficit, and why taxpayers are once again being asked to foot the bill. If you live in NYC - or any high-tax state - this matters to you. When politicians sell “free everything,” the reality is higher taxes, business flight, rising costs, and economic pressure on the middle class. Is this smart policy or political fantasy? We’ll talk about the potential real estate fallout, why property owners could rush for the exits, and how these decisions impact everyday Americans. Nothing is free - someone always pays."
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"People Complain They’re Broke…But Still Keep Spending"
Full screen recommended.
Michael Bordenaro, 2/20/26
"People Complain They’re Broke…
But Still Keep Spending"
Comments here:
"The Suicidal Folly of a War with Iran"
The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group
"The Suicidal Folly of a War with Iran"
By Chris Hedges
"The Laurel and Hardy negotiating team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, coupled with Trump’s appalling ignorance of world affairs and megalomania, seem set to push the U.S. into yet another debacle in the Middle East, one the Congress has not approved, and the public does not want. The demands imposed on Iran by the Trump White House are no more acceptable to the regime in Tehran than those imposed on Hamas in Gaza under Trump’s sham peace plan.
Trump’s demand that Iran shut down its nuclear program and give up its missile capabilities in return for no new sanctions is as tone deaf as calling on Hamas to disarm in Gaza. But since we have long dispensed with diplomats, who are linguistically, politically and culturally literate, who can step into the shoes of their adversaries, we are being led to another war in the Middle East by our newest coterie of buffoons. The U.S. and Israel foolishly believe they can bomb their way to decapitating the Iranian government and installing a client regime. That this non-reality-based belief system failed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya eludes them.
The promise of no new sanctions will not incentivize Iran to broker an agreement. Iran is already crippled by onerous sanctions that have gutted its economy. This will do nothing to break the economic stranglehold. Iran will not give up its nuclear program, which has the potential to be weaponized, or its ballistic missile program, which Israel said it would target in an air attack. Israel’s reputed nuclear arsenal of some 300 warheads is a powerful incentive for Iran to retain the capacity to build a nuclear arsenal of its own. Iran, like Hamas, is never going to render itself defenseless against those seeking its annihilation.
An aerial attack on Iran will not be like the 12-day assault last June against Iran’s nuclear facilities and state and security facilities. Then Iran calibrated its response with symbolic strikes on Al Udeid air base in Qatar in the hopes that it would not lead to a wider, protracted conflict. If an aerial assault is launched, Iran will have nothing to lose. It will understand that appeasing its adversaries is impossible.
Iran is not Iraq. Iran is not Afghanistan. Iran is not Lebanon. Iran is not Libya. Iran is not Syria. Iran is not Yemen. Iran is the seventeenth largest country in the world, with a land mass equivalent to the size of Western Europe. It has a population of almost 90 million - 10 times greater than Israel - and its military resources, as well as alliances with China and Russia, make it a formidable opponent.
When set against the combined forces of the U.S. and Israel, it can inflict a lot of damage. It will do this as swiftly as possible. Hundreds of American troops will likely be killed. Iran will certainly shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint that facilitates the passage of 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. This will double or triple the price of oil and devastate the global economy. It will target oil installations along with U.S. ships and military bases in the region.
Mounting losses and a huge spike in oil prices will provide the fodder for Trump, and his vile counterpart in Israel, to ignite a sustained regional war. This is the cost of being governed by imbeciles. God help us."
"Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: Iran Warns U.S. in Urgent Letter to UN Vowing to Wipe Out U.S. Navy"
Full screen recommended.
Dialogue Works 2/20/26
"Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: Iran Warns
U.S. in Urgent Letter to UN Vowing to Wipe Out U.S. Navy"
Comments here:
"$5 Trillion at Risk - Trump’s 10-Day Countdown to Iran Strike"
Full screen recommended.
Money Over History, 2/20/26
"$5 Trillion at Risk -
Trump’s 10-Day Countdown to Iran Strike"
"Trump has publicly set a 10-day deadline for Iran to reach a deal - or face potential military action - and global markets are reacting instantly. Oil prices have climbed to multi-month highs, gold is surging, and investors are pricing in geopolitical risk as markets brace for impact. From the Strait of Hormuz’s role in global oil supply to how investors are fleeing to safe havens, this is the most important geopolitical and economic countdown you’ll see this year. Stay informed - because the next few days could reshape the world economy."
Comments here:
"Financial WMD: How Iran Could Trigger a Global Economic Collapse"
"Financial WMD: How Iran Could
Trigger a Global Economic Collapse"
by Nick Giambruno
"Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction." He wasn’t being dramatic - he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive, far-reaching damage to the global economy. What Buffett feared most was how a sudden, unexpected market shock could set off a dangerous chain reaction through the financial system, fueled by the hidden risks and tangled interconnections that derivatives create.
These instruments link major banks, hedge funds, and corporations in an intricate web of bets on the future prices of oil, interest rates, currencies, and more. For example, airlines and energy companies routinely use oil-linked derivatives to hedge or speculate. If oil prices were to surge unexpectedly, the counterparties on the losing end - often large financial institutions - would be on the hook for enormous payouts. That, in turn, would trigger margin calls, liquidity crunches, and potentially forced asset sales.
The fear spreads quickly, because many of these derivative contracts are opaque - no one really knows who is exposed or by how much. That uncertainty can lead to panic in the markets, as everyone starts pulling back at once. Losses like these rarely stay contained. A default in one part of the system spreads risk outward. If a major player can’t cover its exposure, it endangers its counterparties. If one of those is a major bank, the problem quickly becomes systemic. This is precisely the kind of domino effect Buffett was describing - a market shock lighting fuses in unexpected places, turning financial interconnectivity into financial fragility.
Because derivatives are so interconnected and can involve huge sums of money, the damage can grow quickly and unpredictably, much like a series of explosions. That’s why Buffett saw them not just as risky tools, but as potential threats to the entire financial system. In other words, financial WMD. So why bring this up now?
Because a more serious confrontation between the US and Iran appears inevitable—and when it comes, it will almost certainly disrupt the flow of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. To call that a severe supply disruption would be an understatement. Consider this.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. It’s the world’s single-most important energy corridor, and there’s no alternative route. Five of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait - border the Persian Gulf, as does Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Strait of Hormuz is their only sea route to the open ocean… and world markets.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, around 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait daily, accounting for roughly 20% of global oil production - worth about $1.3 billion per day at current prices. Another 20% of global LNG exports also move through the Strait.
It’s hard to overstate the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global economy. If someone were to disrupt the Strait, it would ignite a full-blown energy crisis, sending prices soaring and financial markets into chaos. Thanks to its commanding geography and expertise in unconventional and asymmetric warfare, Iran can shut down the Strait, and there’s not much anyone can do about it. It’s Iran’s geopolitical trump card.
Analysts believe it could take weeks to reopen, if at all. Pentagon war games have shown that in a full-scale war, the US Navy would be unable to keep the Strait open. Faced with swarming missile attacks, American forces would either have to withdraw or risk total annihilation. Worse still, Iran could target oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, destroying production facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Even if the Strait reopened, there could be nothing left to export.
Military strategists have known this for decades, yet no viable strategy has ever emerged to neutralize Iran’s leverage. Tehran has made it clear: if a full-scale war breaks out, it will close the Strait and destroy the Persian Gulf’s energy infrastructure. In short, Iran holds a knife to the throat of the global economy.
Since the 1979 Revolution, the US has sought to overthrow Iran’s government. But Iran’s control over the Strait has long served as a powerful deterrent to regime change. That deterrence, however, may be breaking down.
Although most don’t realize it, we are now in the midst of World War 3 - and Iran has become the decisive battleground. The US and Israel may be willing to risk global economic collapse to topple the Iranian government, a move that would dramatically shift the global balance of power in their favor.
If a war with Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, the impact would dwarf every oil crisis in modern history. During the first oil shock in 1973, about 5 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. At the time, daily global oil production was around 56 million barrels. That means roughly 9% of the world’s supply vanished. Oil prices roughly quadrupled.
In the second oil shock of 1979, about 4 million barrels disappeared from the market. Daily production was around 67 million barrels - so about 6% of global supply was lost. Oil prices nearly tripled.
Then, in 1990, during Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, about 4.3 million barrels were removed. With global production at roughly 66 million barrels per day, that was a 7% supply loss. Oil prices more than doubled. Now compare that to a Strait of Hormuz shutdown, which could instantly remove 20 million barrels from a global market producing about 100 million barrels per day - a staggering 20% of supply gone overnight. This would be the largest supply shock in history. By far.
If war with Iran proceeds and Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz, I think the effect on the price of oil will be at least as severe as it was during the 1973 oil shock, which saw oil prices go up 4x. A similar move today could see oil prices above $265 a barrel.
However, I consider that a conservative estimate because closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause a much larger supply shock than the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. And unlike financial crises of the past, this one can’t be fixed with printed money. Central banks can inject liquidity, but they can’t manufacture oil. Physical supply shortages aren’t solvable by monetary policy. Even the combined efforts of the US and Russia to increase oil production couldn’t replace the missing 20 million barrels per day quickly enough to prevent market chaos.
This kind of price shock would hit derivatives markets like a sledgehammer, where oil and gas are heavily traded via futures, options, and swaps. Any firm on the wrong side of the trade would face steep losses, triggering margin calls, liquidity demands, and potential defaults. Big banks that serve as counterparties or intermediaries would be directly exposed to the fallout. This could set off a cascade of defaults and margin calls that ripple through the global financial system - and make 2008 look tame by comparison.
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a credible trigger for a catastrophic global economic depression. Iran’s true nuclear option isn’t a warhead - it’s a financial WMD, setting off a chain reaction by shutting down the Strait and sending oil prices through the roof, detonating the derivatives bomb at the heart of the global financial system.
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just a geopolitical flashpoint - it’s a pressure point beneath the entire modern financial system. If it closes, even temporarily, the shock won’t stop at the gas pump. It will surge straight through the derivatives complex Buffett warned about, slam liquidity, force margin calls, and expose how fragile "normal" really is when a real-world supply constraint collides with a paper market built on leverage and trust. And that’s why this matters right now: a Hormuz shutdown wouldn’t simply be another crisis. It could be the unmistakable catalyst that turns today’s slow-motion currency debasement into a full-blown Monetary Reset - an event where the rules change, purchasing power gets repriced, and wealth doesn’t disappear so much as move… swiftly, and often permanently, from the unprepared to the positioned."
Jim Kunstler, "Does It Smell Like Victory?"
"Does It Smell Like Victory?"
by Jim Kunstler
"We're either gonna get a deal or it's gonna be unfortunate for them.”
- POTUS Donald Trump
"The message seems to be something like the USA isn’t messing around with all those strike forces in the waters around Iran. The Islamic Republic suddenly looks like Rock-and-Hard-Place-Land. Everybody and his uncle are trying to figure out the calculus in play, World War Three or a happy ending?
You’re seeing the most significant US military build-up over there in memory. Smells a little bit like first Gulf War, 1991 - minus all those allies we roped in then. Mr. Trump (via Marco Rubio) has read Euroland out on this one. We are in a cold war with those birds, in case you haven’t noticed. The UK, France, Germany & Co.? They are as crazy as the ladies of "The View" and their millions of Cluster-B followers.
Euroland is yet in thrall to the climate nutters, the farm-and-industry-destroyers, the one-worlders, the Jihad-migrationists, the floundering banksters, and the Klaus Schwab wannabes. Euroland seeks to throttle free speech throughout Western Civ and meddle in everyone’s elections. Euroland keeps mouthing off about a war with Russia despite having no military mojo and going broke-ass broke faster than you can say Götterdämmerung. Bottom line: the US is going solo on this one.
What is the objective? Ostensibly “a deal” over Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Like, just cut it out, will you, please? By the way, did you know that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2005 saying production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam. But then deception is allowed in Islam under the doctrine of taqiyya, against the threat of attack from hostile forces,
I’m sure you remember Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year when we attacked and supposedly “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research and development bunkers at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan? They got pretty banged-up, you may be sure, and nobody in Iran denied there was something nukey going on in those installations. Is there a will there to rebuild the whole darn infrastructure of uranium enrichment and so forth?
The mullahs are not saying, which means: of course, they intend to continue developing nuclear weapons - and even if that’s a stupid and futile gambit, given recent history, they still have factories churning out plain old long-range ballistic missiles and new drones by the thousands. Let’s face it: the mullahs are hardcore for Jihad and martyrdom. Since being elevated to Supreme Leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei has sought relentlessly to transform the traditional Islamic concept of Jihad and establish it as the central pillar of the regime’s ideology.
Are we doing Israel’s bidding there? (Cue: roar of affirmation.) But then, Israel has a point. Iran has been cuckoo for going on forty years. If Israel wasn’t a target of the mullahs’ eternal Shia wrath, there are their other enemies, the Sunni, on the west side of the Persian Gulf (and next door in Iraq). And consider, too, Iran’s obdurate sponsorship of Jihad, wherever possible, both within and outside the Ummah - including especially Western Civ, where low-grade Jihad has been going on for over a decade... mass murders, rape gangs, beheadings, trucks through the Christmas markets. . . .
Okay, if Euroland is out, what about the other big dogs, Russia and China. Will they just stand by and let the US have its wicked way with Iran? Russia sent a corvette-class naval vessel down to the Straits of Hormuz for a joint operation with Iran’s navy, but what does that mean? Probably not much more than occupational therapy. Besides, Mr. Trump is just now promising to bring Russia “out from the cold” of all those onerous economic sanctions... to begin the process of normalizing relations. You might doubt that Russia wants to blow that for Iran’s sake.
And, while it is somewhat out of the news due to the Epstein stink-bomb, and the deepness of mid-winter, there is still a war going on over in Ukraine. Which is to say, the Russians have their hands full in their own back-yard and might, perhaps, be hesitant about piling-on in Iran. And, let’s just suppose that the US objective is actually regime change in Iran. Would Russia be indisposed if the mullahs got kicked out of power? I doubt it. Russia has longstanding annoying issues with Islamic factions distributed throughout their adjoining former Soviet republics. Russia does not need Jihad. Russia might actually live more comfortably with Iran under a secular government, tilting a bit more western in temperament. Just sayin’...
China has more urgent concerns with Iran. China gets around 13-percent of its oil imports from Iran, and it enjoys a three to four percent discount on it. Regime change or war that could damage Iran’s oil terminals would be bad news for China. But then, China is at a long geographic remove from Iran, and China is not used to conducting military adventures so far from home, so don’t expect much assistance there. China’s other option would be to start a kerfuffle over Taiwan to distract and divert the US. We’ll just have to see about that. Uncle Xi Jinping has been busy lately sacking the upper echelons of his own military leadership. Are they even ready for action? Plus, China’s economy is wobbly. Consider also: has the US given China assurances of continued oil imports from Iran if it steers clear of the situation there?
What are we operationally capable of over in Iran with all our warships, fighter jets, and other stuff? I don’t know... and neither do you. Looks impressive, but a couple of Sunburn-type missiles landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln could produce a profound instant attitude adjustment. Perhaps President Trump, WarSec Hegseth, and StateSec Rubio have more refined plans for disarming Iran and surgically removing those in charge. Our guys are certainly acting confident. But then in geopolitics confidence is best friends with hubris. And hubris generally precedes clusterf*ck. The art of the deal is not for sissies."
Bill Bonner, "The Doctor Will See You Now"
"The Doctor Will See You Now"
by Bill Bonner
"The idea that the Chinese lack creativity is a comforting
superstition, cherished chiefly by those whose last original
idea was to install a second refrigerator in the garage."
- Suggested to us by ChatGPT
Poitou, France - "In the west, we more attempts to control the economy, The People, the news and the ‘narrative.’ The latest count shows federal, state, and local government spending at 40% of GDP. So, they’ve got a lot to control it with. Reuters: "Trump adviser Hassett suggests New York Fed researchers be punished for tariffs argument. Kevin Hassett, a top economic adviser to President Donald Trump, on Wednesday said those behind a New York Federal Reserve research paper that argued the costs of tariffs are borne mostly by Americans should be punished for what he described as shoddy scholarship."
In the east, or at least in China, the citizens have less democracy than we have. BBC from 2018: "China’s Xi allowed to remain ‘president for life’ as term limits removed." But they have no military bases scattered throughout the planet. China does not blow up fishing boats. It does not kidnap foreign leaders. It has never invaded another country, nor even threatened to do so.
The US, by contrast, has some 700 bases outside the homeland. It bombs, threatens or intervenes somewhere almost every day. And at home, the US has 541 people in jail for every 100,000 loose on the streets. In China, only 119 are in jail/100k. Either the Chinese are more law abiding, or Americans are putting their fellow countrymen behind bars at four times the Chinese rate for no good reason.
And while the west seems to be in decline, the east seems to rise. China marked the beginning of the New Year with a fantastic spectacle in Beijing...watched by more people than any previous show. It unveiled a ‘new generation’ of robots. And these were no ordinary sci-fi robots, shuffling along stiffly like a superannuated senator. On display were 25 human-sized machines that walked, ran, jumped, performed kung-fun stunts - all in perfectly choreographed precision. Breakdancing...back flipping - it was amazing what these robots could do.
And their manufacturer Unitree says it will produce 20,000 of them this year. Interesting Engineering: "Unitree’s WuBot robot performed the martial arts sequence at the event. The H1 robots came next, performing table-vaulting parkour, 3-meter aerial flips, and single-leg flips. The robots also showcased an air flare grand spin of seven-and-a-half rotations and other high-difficulty movements, which marked a significant upgrade from the Yangko dance they performed at the 2025 event."
As far as we know, no western country can do anything like this. The show was so impressive some viewers even doubted it was real. Not even the Chinese could do something like this, they thought. “I’m deeply suspicious,” wrote one. “It could be AI generated.’ But the performance was said to be live, before real people...and it wasn’t as perfect as you’d expect from an AI-generated fraud. The robots often had to quickly move their feet to keep their balance. AI was used to program the graceful, powerful, coordinated moves, not to deceive the viewers.
And here’s Lin Guoer’s viral YouTube channel (@linguoermechanic) that has nothing to do with AI...but with the energy of the Chinese people. Lin is a young woman from Yunnan Province with an amazing talent for restoring old engines and broken machines. Her channel has two million followers! (In this video, she restores a 100-year-old tractor.)
We haven’t been to China for more than twenty years. We were among the first ‘Europeans’ to visit the planned city of Shenzhen. It was a backwater, with dirt roads, stalled trucks, ragged houses and perhaps 30,000 people. But even back then, China was racing ahead...with more and faster trains, better highways, more efficient ports. And today, Shenzhen is one of the most modern cities in the world - with 17 million people.
And now...the Chinese are making a great leap forward in the one industry where the US used to be the undisputed lead dog - technology. The South China Morning Post reports: "Chinese scientists hit breakthrough on 2D semiconductor wafers. Chinese researchers have announced a new technique to mass produce 2D material wafers, paving the way for high-performance electronics using a successor to silicon.
As semiconductor chips continue to evolve, transistor sizes are approaching the physical limits of silicon-based technology. The search for next-generation semiconductor materials that can deliver superior performance has become a global priority. Among the candidates, two-dimensional (2D) materials such as molybdenum disulfide (MoS₂) with their atomically thin structure are regarded as promising successors for the post-Moore’s Law era because of their high carrier mobility and low power consumption."
Yes, dear reader, we have presumed that an economy with a large amount of government interference (China…the US) would be a flop. But maybe not. It is also astonishing that China, with hundreds of millions of human workers, would lead the world in replacing them with machines.
As for AI, we pooh-poohed the idea that AI would change the world. Who wants yet more words? More opinions? More analysis? More ideas? More blah blah? Would AI help us make tastier linguine? Would it turn a goodbye kiss into a life-changing experience? Would it make an annoying neighbor disappear? But this robot show has lifted the curtain. Behind it, we see machines that can do almost everything, physically and mentally, that a human can do. But with none of the sick days or bad attitudes that characterize our race.
They can easily put truck drivers out of work, of course...and truck loaders, mechanics and package deliverers too. Kateable: "UPS guts 78,000 jobs in largest purge since company’s founding to ‘reduce human labor’."
‘Watch out,’ says the homeowner, ‘my dog might bite.’ ‘I don’t care’...says the robot. Sort, tote, hammer...any job that can be routinized can be done by these marvels. 24 hours a day. Seven days a week. And they respond to voice commands.
They can take over the professions too. What does a doctor do? He listens to your complaints. He runs some tests and takes some measures. With an almost infinite well of medical knowledge available to him, the robot in the white coat might be a far superior technician. He might even be programmed to have a nice bedside manner! And maybe a Chinese accent! ‘You no have cancer. You have indigestion. Take pills. Call in morning,’ he tells you."
Thursday, February 19, 2026
"Alert! Russia On Nuclear Alert For Iran Collapse, Mass Conscription Underway! Trump UFO Talk=WW3"
Full screen recommended.
Prepper news, 2/19/26
"Alert! Russia On Nuclear Alert For Iran Collapse,
Mass Conscription Underway! Trump UFO Talk=WW3"
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"Bad Things Are Going To Happen, Federal Reserve Pumping Billions Into Banks"
Jeremiah Babe, 2/19/26
"Bad Things Are Going To Happen,
Federal Reserve Pumping Billions Into Banks"
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Gerald Celente, "Markets Down, Oil Up, Will Trump Attack Iran?"
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 2/19/26
"Markets Down, Oil Up, Will Trump Attack Iran?"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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