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Saturday, August 9, 2025

The Poet: Alfred, Lord Tennyson, "Ulysses"

"Ulysses"

"There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail:
There gloom the dark, broad seas. My mariners,
Souls that have toil'd, and wrought, and thought with me -
That ever with a frolic welcome took
The thunder and the sunshine, and opposed
Free hearts, free foreheads - you and I are old;
Old age hath yet his honor and his toil;
Death closes all: but something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.
The lights begin to twinkle from the rocks:
The long day wanes: the slow moon climbs: the deep
Moans round with many voices. Come, my friends,
'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die.
It may be that the gulfs will wash us down:
It may be we shall touch the Happy Isles,
And see the great Achilles, whom we knew.
Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho'
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield."

- Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Procol Harum, "A Salty Dog"

"How It Really Is"

 

John Wilder, "Schlitz® and Shot Puts: The Lost Art of Failing"

"Schlitz® and Shot Puts: The Lost Art of Failing"
by John Wilder

“For the genetic elite, success is attainable,
but not guaranteed.” – "Gattaca"

"When I was a kid, life was a buffet of possibilities with a chocolate sauce fountain at the end. I should know, because I was that greedy little guy piling my plate high with everything from wrestling to chess club to that four ill-fated years of track where I learned that that shot put was never going to go farther than 38’. Ever.

But it wasn’t just me. Back in the ‘70s and ‘80s and ‘90s, all of childhood was a sandbox - room to dig, build, and occasionally eat the sand just to see what happened. Hell, in the 1970s I don’t think mothers stopped smoking while in labor, and then let their kids go free-range until the police brought them home from the kegger at the old gravel pit. They said I was full of Schlitz®, but I would have differed if I didn’t keep passing out.

Outside of cheap watery beer, as a kid I could try everything, suck at half of it, and still have time to ride bikes with my buddies. I mean, they were imaginary friends, but at least they would stop staring at me when I yelled at them, “stop staring at me”.

The point is, I had time. Time to dabble, freedom to fail, and a real chance to struggle to find out what made John Wilder tick (spoiler: booze, tobacco, and women). I could dream of being an astronaut one week a Green Beret the next, and James Bond the week after. No one demanded that I pick a lane and stay there, probably because they were too busy smoking and drinking and driving. For me, though, failure was a teacher, not a felony.

Kids today? They’re not at a buffet. They're forced to pick their entrée at 12 and commit to it like terrier hangs onto a T-bone. I remember a conversation with a colleague back in Houston, circa 2010. His daughter, still in middle school, had to choose: volleyball, softball, or tennis. One single sport, full commitment, no take-backs.

This wasn’t just signing up for the school team and seeing how it went. This meant off-season practices, traveling squads, private coaching, and summer clinics that cost more than my first car. All this for a kid who, statistically, had a better shot at being struck by lightning than playing at the college level. In Houston’s mega-sized high schools (the nearest one had 5,000 kids and a football stadium that could shame a small college) only the top 1% even make the team. The rest? They’re sidelined, their dreams of spiking a volleyball or swinging a bat relegated to backyard pickup games, if they’re lucky.

Why this insanity? Two culprits: economics and elite overproduction. First, economics. Big school districts love their mega-schools. They’re cheaper per pupil to run, since they have fewer buildings, fewer janitors, more bang for the bureaucratic buck. Plus, a 5,000-student high school can field a football team that crushes smaller districts and draws 20,000 fans to a stadium that makes my college’s stadium look like a community rec center field for third graders. In Texas, high school football isn’t a sport; it’s a religion, though they do have better concessions.

Historian Peter Turchin (who I’ve written about before HERE) points out that societies often churn out more “elites” than they can sustain - too many people vying for too few top spots, whether in politics, business, or, yes, even high school sports. We see it in our polarized Congress and bloated corporate C-suites, so why not in our kids’ lives? Parents, schools, and even kids themselves feel the pressure to produce not just good students or athletes but exceptional ones.

The result of this is catastrophic. It has produced a generation of tweens locked into one sport, one instrument, or one hyper-specialized path, all in the name of building a résumé for elite colleges that demand “well-rounded” applicants who’ve paradoxically had no time to be well-rounded. Or, you know, they could just have a great DEI score. Whatever.

For the average kid, the stress this creates is brutal. Kids today face schedules that would make a CEO sweat. A 14-year-old might have 6 a.m. weight training, school, after-school practice, and a side hustle of “personal development” like SAT prep or violin lessons.

Free time? That’s for quitters. Social life? Catch up on InstaFace® between reps. The mental toll is real: you can look around and see kids today are drowning in depression and hopelessness. Part of this, I’d argue, comes from a life without failure. Most kids in Houston won’t lose a football game or a wrestling match or a basketball game. They’ll go and watch, sure, but they don’t get a chance to actually fail. Without learning that failure is really an option and that tomorrow is another day, every little setback in their life feels like a catastrophe.

Without challenges that force them to fail, adapt, and push through, they hit adulthood brittle, unprepared for real-world setbacks. I lost at sports in ways that made me want to cry when I was in high school. I didn’t cry because I’m not gay, but I learned that I could get up in the morning after losing and see that I was still there. My loss was temporary, but it really did help build my character. Today’s kids, locked into elite tracks or locked out of actual competition, often don’t face meaningful failure until it’s high-stakes.

By then, the stakes are too high to learn gracefully. They need safe spaces to crash and burn, like a JV wrestling match where you get pinned by a kid whose armpit smells like grape soda and Cheetos® or a debate club where your argument flops harder than a fish on a dock.

When we moved away from Houston’s mega-schools to Modern Mayberry, we did it mainly to escape this madness. Our kids could try things. They didn’t have to be the best to play, and they had room to fail without it defining their future or collapsing their ego. That freedom let them discover who they were, not who a coach or a college admissions board thought they should be. They’ve learned that the struggle is the goal. Well, that and the booze, tobacco, and women."

"120 Million Square Feet: Store Closings In The United States Are On Pace To Set A New Record High In 2025"

"120 Million Square Feet: Store Closings In The 
United States Are On Pace To Set A New Record High In 2025"
by Michael Snyder

"If everything is going to be just fine, why are thousands of stores closing all over the country? So far this year, the total amount of retail space that has been permanently closed has surpassed 120 million square feet. We have never seen anything like this before. Store closings spiked during the early days of the pandemic, but in 2025 stores are being permanently shuttered at an even faster pace. In fact, during the first six months of this year 5,822 store closures were recorded…

"Store closures across the U.S. continue to rise, and remain on track to far significantly surpass both new openings and the figures seen in 2024. According to a new report from research and advisory firm Coresight Research, cited by CoStar News, 5,822 store closures were recorded as of June 27, compared to 3,496 closures announced during the same period of 2024." If stores continue to close at this rate, we will break the old record that was established during the pandemic by a wide margin.

We are also being told that the total amount of retail space that has been permanently shuttered in 2025 has reached a staggering 120 million square feet…"In June, store closings by Plano, Texas-based home goods seller At Home and Philadelphia-based pharmacy chain Rite Aid, which have both filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, “pushed the total amount of retail space to close in the U.S. this year to over 120 million square feet,” Coresight said. The real estate churn is happening “as cyclical impacts confront structural shifts,” according to one executive at the research firm.

Wow. You may have noticed that there are an increasing number of abandoned buildings in your particular area. Sadly, this is just the beginning.

Consumers are under more financial stress than we have ever seen, and that has resulted in a substantial decline in store traffic…"Many of the retail store closures are a result of declining store traffic as more consumers respond to inflation by reducing spending. There also are more consumers turning to online shopping especially for apparel, accessories and household items. The winner is not merely Amazon but increased competition from Temu and Shein marketplaces and social commerce outlets like TikTok."

Needless to say, more stores are being closed down with each passing day. After filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, Claire’s announced that it will be closing 18 more stores
"Claire’s, a mall-based teen accessories retailer, has identified several locations across the country it plans to close after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Claire’s U.S., which operates Claire’s and Icing stores, made the filing in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on Wednesday. It’s the second time since 2018 the company has filed for bankruptcy. While the company says the majority of its retail stores will remain open while it “continues to explore all strategic alternatives,” Claire’s said it identified 18 stores ahead of the Aug. 6 bankruptcy filing it would close, filings show."

And home goods retailer At Home just announced that it will be closing 6 more stores…"The home goods retailer At Home is closing an additional six stores across the country, bringing its total closure tally to more than two dozen as it grapples with high debt and dwindling sales.

The furniture and home decor retailer based in Coppell, Texas, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, pointing to “broader economic and retail-specific market pressures,” in court documents. The bankruptcy filing and store closures follow several other “big box” retailers that have also significantly downsized their brick-and-mortar footprints this year, including Big Lots, Joann Fabrics, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Macy’s, and Party City.

The retailer intially announced 26 store closures in June, before paring that down to 24 when it decided to keep open two stores in New Jersey and Wisconsin. The company added another six stores to the list, according to a statement by retail firm Hilco Consumer-Retail on Aug. 1, bringing the current number of stores it will shutter in the coming months to 30."

We see more stories like this every single day. So what is going to happen if our economic momentum continues to take us very rapidly in the wrong direction? Earlier today, we learned that the percentage of student loans entering serious delinquency is absolutely exploding…"The total amount of outstanding student loan debt was $1.64 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 after rising by $7 billion in the quarter. Additionally, the share of student loan debt entering serious delinquency, considered 90 days or more late, jumped to 12.9% at the end of June, up from 8% in March and above pre-pandemic trends that were around 9-10% from 2012 into early 2020, when the moratorium initially took effect."

The American people are drowning in debt, and I expect delinquency rates of all types to continue to rise in the months ahead. We are going to see more layoffs too, and the fact that continuing claims for unemployment benefits just hit their highest level since 2021 is not a good sign at all…"Recurring applications for unemployment benefits surged to the highest since November 2021, adding to recent signs that the labor market is weakening. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, according to Labor Department data released Thursday."

On top of everything else, U.S. manufacturing activity is now in contraction territory…"From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline. The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at around roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s."

We are in so much trouble. After evaluating all of the latest economic numbers that have come in, Mark Zandi has come to the conclusion that the “economy is on the precipice of recession”…"Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, on Monday wrote a post on X that the “economy is on the precipice of recession” – citing the weaker-than-expected jobs report released Friday and the inflation data from the previous day that showed consumer prices rose as indicating the economy’s precarious position. “Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue,” he wrote."

It is hard to argue with him. Of course what is eventually coming is going to be so much worse than just a “recession”. As conditions deteriorate, will store closings slow down or will they speed up? The answer to that question is obvious. If there are stores in your local area that you really enjoy, I would visit them now while you still can, because they might not be there next year."

Dan, I Allegedly, "Threats, Intimidation, and Real Estate"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 8/9/25
"Threats, Intimidation, and Real Estate"
"AI is shaking up real estate, and it’s causing serious waves! In this video, I explore the controversial launch of Agria, a new AI platform aimed at cutting brokers out of commercial and residential real estate deals. From severed pig heads and threatening letters to the $35 trillion in home equity at stake, things are getting intense. Are real estate brokers fighting back to protect their billions? Let’s break it all down. Plus, I touch on huge changes in gambling thresholds, global food prices skyrocketing, and the state of pharmacy deserts across the U.S. Whether it's AI, short sales, or unexpected industry shifts, the real estate market is heading into uncharted territory."
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "Items At Aldi Everyone Should Be Buying Right Now!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 8/9/25
"Items At Aldi Everyone Should Be Buying Right Now!"
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Adventures With Danno, PM 8/9/25
"Major Salmonella Outbreak Confirmed!"
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Friday, August 8, 2025

"What Is Life?"

"What is life?
It is the flash of a firefly in the night.
It is the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime.
It is the little shadow which runs 
across the grass and loses itself in the sunset."
- Crowfoot, Blackfoot Warrior and Orator

Musical Interlude: Kevin Kern, "Above The Clouds"

Full screen recommended.
Kevin Kern, "Above The Clouds"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Fans of our fair planet might recognize the outlines of these cosmic clouds. On the left, bright emission outlined by dark, obscuring dust lanes seems to trace a continental shape, lending the popular name North America Nebula to the emission region cataloged as NGC 7000. To the right, just off the North America Nebula's east coast, is IC 5070, whose avian profile suggests the Pelican Nebula. The two bright nebulae are about 1,500 light-years away, part of the same large and complex star forming region, almost as nearby as the better-known Orion Nebula. At that distance, the 3 degree wide field of view would span 80 light-years.
This careful cosmic portrait uses narrow band images combined to highlight the bright ionization fronts and the characteristic glow from atomic hydrogen, sulfur, and oxygen gas. These nebulae can be seen with binoculars from a dark location. Look northeast of bright star Deneb in the constellation Cygnus the Swan."

The Poet: Charles Dickens, "Things That Never Die "

"Things That Never Die"

 "The pure, the bright, the beautiful
that stirred our hearts in youth,
The impulses to wordless prayer,
The streams of love and truth,
The longing after something lost,
The spirits longing cry,
The striving after better hopes -
These things can never die.

The timid hand stretched forth to aid
A brother in his need;
A kindly word in griefs dark hour
That proves a friend indeed;
The plea for mercy softly breathed,
When justice threatens high,
The sorrow of a contrite heart -
These things shall never die.

Let nothing pass, for every hand
Must find some work to do,
Lose not a chance to waken love -
Be firm and just and true.
So shall a light that cannot fade
Beam on thee from on high,
And angel voices say to thee -
 These things shall never die." 

- Charles Dickens (1812-1870)

"Should We Be Expecting A 1929 Style Stock Market Crash And Another Great Depression?"

Gregory Mannarino, 8/8/25
"Should We Be Expecting A 1929 Style Stock 
Market Crash And Another Great Depression?"
Comments here:
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Jeremiah Babe, 8/8/25
"Trump Warns Of 1929 Depression, 
Get Your Money Out Of The Bank"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Albemarle, North Carolina, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Major US Cities Prepare For Massive Financial Devastation"

Full screen recommended.
Snyder Reports, 8/8/25
"Major US Cities Prepare For 
Massive Financial Devastation"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Michael Bordenaro, 8/8/25
"A Layoff Story Everyone Needs To Hear"
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"Our Simulacrum Economy"

"Our Simulacrum Economy"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"Readers once routinely chastised me for over-using simulacrum to describe our economy and society. The problem is this word perfectly describes the hollowed-out, rigged economy and social order we inhabit and so synonyms don't quite cut it: it's not the same as simulation or imitation or counterfeit. My use (or over-use) dates back to the 2009 publication of my book "Survival+", which included a chapter titled Simulacrum and the Politics of Experience. I use simulacrum to describe a carefully constructed representation of a once-authentic system that is intended to shape our behavior to suit the interests of those constructing the simulacrum.

The simulacrum has the look and feel of the once-authentic system but it's rigged to benefit the few whose interests are better served by the simulacrum than they could ever be served by an authentic system. As I wrote in "Survival+:" A simulacrum is used to distort a reality that, once revealed, would cause the target audience to act in ways that would not serve the interests of those deploying the simulacrum.

The point of a simulacrum is to mimic an authentic system realistically enough so nobody notices it's rigged to benefit the few at the expense of the many. This is different from a simulation - for example, a flight simulator - that models the actual experience. It's also not a faux copy or counterfeit of the authentic system; it is a replacement that's real in every way.

French Postmodernist Jean Baudrillard's 1981 book "Simulacra and Simulation" attempts to differentiate Simulacra and Simulation by noting that a simulacrum is not a copy of an original (i.e. a counterfeit) because the original is no longer accessible. As a result, the simulacrum becomes not just real but hyper-real.

For an example, consider capitalism which in its classical form is the risking of capital to generate financial and social gains that were not possible in a pre-capital economy. The labor and materials needed to construct a major canal, for example, were beyond the reach of villages or even towns, and so their economies remained localized and poor due to the inability to reach distant, more lucrative markets. Once capital could be assembled in sufficient size, the localized, fragmented economies were unified by the canal, and commerce expanded exponentially as a result, benefiting everyone with access to the canal: laborers, farmers, craftspeople, traders and those who risked the money to construct the canal.

Contrast this authentic form of capitalism with the monopoly-finance-state version we inhabit, a simulacrum of authentic capitalism that retains enough superficial similarities to the original that the vast majority of participants don't even realize that their experience of this simulacrum is entirely different from an experience of authentic capitalism.

Rather than draw benefits from this hyper-real monopoly-finance-state version, the vast majority of participants are exploited, as the value of their labor and capital is extracted by the simulacrum version of "capitalism" which divvies up the extracted value between the monopolies/cartels who control most of the valuable economic activity, the financial sector that parasitically feeds on the real economy and the state, which extracts wealth to feed its vast network of dependents, enforcers and minders of the entire system.

In this hyper-real simulacrum, a vast fortune is never more than a couple of stock gambles, TikTok clips or YouTube videos away. Or for those wary of the casino, the enormous mortgage taken on for life promises access to the riches of the Everything Bubble. In the hyper-real casino, everyone has access to the terrors of losing, but only a few know the joys of the rigged games that guarantee a few big winners by design and a fortunate few who stumbled into the game at a propitious moment.

As Baudrillard anticipated, the authentic original version of capitalism is no longer accessible. The simulacrum that we call capitalism is rigged, and the mechanisms are so cleverly obscured that the vast majority of participants willingly allow themselves to be exploited, disempowered or marginalized because they have no experience or even reference point to the authentic original version, as it no longer exists. Everything they know and experience - the economic models, symbols, signifiers, narratives, adverts, etc., and their own conceptions of value and agency, have all been so thoroughly debauched that they have no idea that the authentic original has been lost.

The problem is our system only survives by cannibalizing its weakest parts, and once they've been consumed, the system can no longer sustain itself and it expires. Simulacra are not fake, but they are profoundly unstable and prone to collapse. Everything gluing the monopoly-finance-state system together is unraveling due to the excesses of extraction and exploitation the system has perfected.

Once the rigged system collapses, we'll have an opportunity to assemble an authentic economy, a new original that isn't rigged to benefit the few at the expense of the many. This is what I discuss in my book "A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet"

"Are We Living In A Simulation? MIT Scientist Says Likely Yes"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 8/8/25
"Are We Living In A Simulation? 
MIT Scientist Says Likely Yes"
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"Here We Are..."

"Here we are, trapped in the amber of the moment.
There is no why."
- Kurt Vonnegut

Travelling with Russell, "I Went to the Largest Food Market in Russia"

Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 8/8/25
"I Went to the Largest Food Market in Russia"
"Food City is the first wholesale food distribution centre in Moscow and the largest in Russia. Built on 91 hectares, it's 5,000 wholesale and retail vendors sell 1,800,000 tons of products annually."
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended.
Lisa with Love, 8/8/25
"Russia in 2025: 
This Supermarket Shelf Shocked Me"
"Sanctioned life in Russia! Exploring international Russian
 supermarket to find 10 types of Cola?"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Nastya in Siberia, 8/8/25
"What’s Inside Typical Russian Grocery 
Store In The Big Shopping Mall"
"In this video I’m continuing sharing my daily live in Novosibirsk, Russia. I’m sharing 
my slow daily routine. Cooking, grocery shopping and occasionally some adventures."
Comments here:

Judge Napolitano, "INTEL Roundtable w/Johnson & McGovern - Weekly Wrap 8-August"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 8/8/25
"INTEL Roundtable w/Johnson & McGovern - 
Weekly Wrap 8-August"
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"How It Really Is"

 

"Stagflation Has Arrived, Job Weakness Is Apparent, and Stocks Party On!"

"Stagflation Has Arrived, Job Weakness 
Is Apparent, and Stocks Party On!"
Stagflation. It’s back on the menu, boys and girls!

"Howdy! After a much-needed back-country vacation, where my phone was an intentional brick, I’m back with another episode of Finance U with Paul Kiker of Kiker Wealth Management  Today, we dove deep into the current state of the economy, and I’ve got to say, things are looking nuttier than ever. I’m currently struck by the disconnect between the rosy narratives we’re hearing - like Trump’s claims of an economy “on fire” - and the hard data that’s screaming the opposite.

Data like extreme weakness in the employment data and a powerful surge in ‘prices paid’ for services, which are a powerful sign that inflation is back on the rise. I’m feeling a strong sense of unease, and I know many of you are too, as we keep hearing that something just isn’t adding up.

First, let’s talk jobs. The labor market is showing serious weakness. BLS data indicates job growth is a measly 0.97% year-over-year, a level that historically signals recessionary territory. Further, white-collar workers are struggling to find employment, with some searching for 60 to 90 days without luck. Where NAFTA stole blue-collar jobs, AI is now stealing white-collar jobs. Talk about bad luck! The non-elite socioeconomic classes just can’t seem to catch a break.

But it goes beyond services. Manufacturing indices are also in contraction, and job openings on platforms like Indeed are down 35% from their peak. On top of that, the BLS had to revise their numbers for May and June down by a whopping 258.

That’s a massive “oopsie,” and it’s no surprise Trump fired the BLS director over it. I’ve always been super-skeptical of the official numbers - ADP’s real-time payroll data seems more reliable, and it’s showing negative prints too.

So, given the labor weakness, how do we make sense of the market euphoria? Despite the many flashing warning signs, retail investors are buying with abandon, perhaps fueled by a belief that the Fed will cut rates and save the day. But I’m not so sure. Cutting rates might inflate the equity bubbles further without addressing underlying issues. But then again, stocks are at (literally) unprecedented valuations - tech stocks are 2.2 times the S&P 500, higher than the 2000 dot-com peak. Holy smokes!!

I guess “this time is different?” The average investor had better hope so (and ‘hope’ isn’t a strategy, FYI). Maybe, but history says “No,” quite convincingly. Companies like Palantir are trading at 300x forward P/E, and a $60 million revenue beat added $15 billion in market cap overnight. Again, Yikes! That’s frothy, folks. I’ve lived through bubbles before, and this feels eerily familiar.

Housing is another mess. There’s a huge gap between sellers and buyers - 500,000 more sellers - and sales are slow because prices haven’t dropped. Insurance costs are skyrocketing, with some homeowners paying over half their mortgage just for coverage and taxes. I dug into claims that climate change is driving these hikes, but the data on hurricanes and flooding shows no significant increase. I suspect it’s more about inflation and insurer greed than weather. Meanwhile, household debt hit $18.39 trillion, with auto and mortgage debt soaring. People are hanging on by their fingernails.

Stagflation is the word on everyone’s mind, defined as stagnant growth paired with rising inflation. Think ‘weak jobs’ but also ‘more expensive housing and steaks.’ The ISM services PMI barely shows expansion in terms of new orders, while prices paid are spiking near 70, reminiscent of early 2008. Employment in services is contracting, and new orders are flat.

What ‘stagflation’ means for most Americans is “life is getting harder” – 73% now say that buying a home is tougher, and 65% struggle to pay bills. I’m heartbroken by stories like a woman facing $2,627 monthly health insurance, forced to choose between her house and coverage, who now says that she’s given up, that the system is rigged against her. This system feels predatory because it is predatory.

Paul and I agreed that it’s time to build resiliency. I’m not saying sell everything, but taking some chips off the table to create a 12-24 month emergency fund seems prudent and wise. Market cycles always turn, and with margin debt now over a trillion, the fall could be brutal…and fast. I’m counseling my own family to wait out this housing market, rent for now, and prepare for opportunities when blood’s in the streets, as Buffett advises. Whether it’s a deflationary crash or hyperinflation, pain is coming. I believe education and risk management are key - don’t let euphoria blind you."
Watch the video on Rumble:

"Repubs Bad, Dems Worse"

"Repubs Bad, Dems Worse"
Pols, polls and the bipartisan plot to drown America in debt...
by Joel Bowman

“I don't want to belong to any club that would accept me as a member.”
~ Groucho Marx, RIP (1890-1977)

Houston, Texas - "Fear not, gentle reader, we’re in a “safe space” today. The Black Hole coffeeshop here in Houston, whence we pen these very words, brandishes all the signals a mental defective might require in order to enjoy a soy milk latte in peace, without feeling “triggered.” There’s a “Black Lives Matter” poster on the back wall, for instance... two “all gender” restrooms at the rear... a rainbow “pride” flag by the counter... and, in case anyone was unsure as to the establishment’s position vis-à-vis the current administration, a “Pro Jobs, Anti-Trump” sign, right by the community noticeboard. Subtle.

Yes, dear reader, we sit among the fearful... the certain... the blue-haired warriors combating, as they imagine it, the rise and rise of the Fourth Reich. They are the resistance... standing firmly against hate, bigotry, fascism... and proper definitions of terms.

Ah, but we have a soft spot for soft-headed underdogs. Which is why, in honor of the cafe’s commitment to “inclusivity,” we hereby dedicate today’s Note to the weird and wild denizens of the Black Hole, diverse in every manner imaginable... except, of course, when it comes to their unshakable word view. That said, let us turn from a subject upon which nobody seems to agree, identity politics, to one on which everyone can surely disagree… actual politics.

Way Back When: The latest punchline headline, from CNBC: "Trump’s approval rating still negative while the public sours further on Democrats, CNBC survey shows. According to the flailing Comcast network (Stephen Colbert’s soon-to-be-former employer), the public disapproves of the job Trump is doing as president by a 51%-46% margin. That’s slightly better than the April CNBC All-America Economic Survey, which had the president at 51%-44%."

But wait! What’s this? The Dems are in the tank, too... even among those inclined to answer surveys conducted by the mainstream media. From the same article: "Favorability of the Democratic Party among registered voters sank to a net -32 percentage points, with 24% positive and 56% negative. The -32 rating appeared to be the lowest rating for either party going back to at least 1996."

Ah, you remember 1996 don’t you, dear reader? The Internet was just getting going... William Jefferson Clinton had just won reelection... and the O.J. Simpson trial, recently concluded, had just laid bare the “integrity” of the American criminal justice system. Simpler times, eh?

Back then, Uncle Sam had a national debt of “only” $5.2 trillion... or around 65% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Almost 30 years on, thanks to the tireless, bipartisan efforts of your elected officials, those numbers have grown to $37 trillion and 121%, respectively.

That is, while the US economy has grown by an impressive 3.8 times during the past few decades... the national debt has ballooned to more than 7.2 times its original, 1996 size. In other words, the debt has rocketed at almost twice the rate of the underlying economy... and it’s only just hitting escape velocity.

At current rates – that is, assuming no costly wars, no unforeseen interruptions to economic growth, no manufactured “emergencies” or other mass psychosis events – America’s national debt is projected to hit $49 trillion by 2029... which would be ~140% of GDP... or around $382k per taxpaying citizen. For reference, America’s record debt-to-GDP ratio during the last century – “achieved” during WWII, no less – stood at “just” 119%.

The GDP Myth: As savvy readers have recently pointed out, GDP is indeed a sub-optimal measure of the size of an economy, in part because it includes the government’s deficit spending as a net positive under the expenditure method... when really it should be seen as a net drag on the “real” (i.e. private) economy.

Murray Rothbard, a key figure in the Austrian School of Economics, sought to address this convenient “oversight” when he proposed his twin alternative measures: Gross Private Product (GPP) and Private Product Remaining (PPR). (Interested readers can learn more about those in this Note from a few months back: "Alice in Argentina.")

So far in this, the third millennium, successive administrations – and pork barreling congressmen on both sides of the aisle – have added almost $30 trillion to Uncle Sam’s credit card. That’s $6.1 trillion under George W. Bush (2001–2009); $8 trillion under Barack Obama (2009–2017); $7.9 trillion under Donald Trump I (2017–2021); and $5.7 trillion under Joe Biden (2021–2025)…and counting.

Is it any wonder private, hard-working, minding-their-own-business citizens have had enough? Or that they should be so readily “divided and conquered”? The aforementioned CNBC article concluded by stating the bleeding obvious: “Republicans remain solidly behind the president and Democrats solidly against. Half of independents disapprove of the president.”

To summarize: The right hates the left… the left hates the right… and nobody is happy with anybody. As the old saying goes, you cannot fool all of the people all of the time… which is why the world’s leading democracy has two political parties. Indeed, the slogan “Vote Nobody!” never sounded so appealing! Speaking of Argentina’s “libertarian laboratory,” your editor will (finally) be heading home next week. Look forward to our front row coverage of the Greatest Political Experiment of Our Age to resume promptly thereafter. In the meantime, thanks for your patience… and stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World..."

Bill Bonner, "Stabbed in the Back"

Federal debt held by the public will increase by 9% to 11% by 2034, according to a Congressional Budget Office memo on the budget bill. Debt service costs will rise by at least $718 billion. The public currently owns $29 trillion in US government debt, about 96% of US GDP.
"Stabbed in the Back"
by Bill Bonner

"We are now in a new world. 
Even to trade nerds, the complexity of this is just bonkers."
- Chad Bown, senior fellow at the
 Peterson Institute for International Economics

Poitou, France - "You’ll recall that Oswald Spengler predicted that around the year 2000 western democracy would peak and would be succeeded by a period of strongman leaders. Our question is this: To what extent does our own Donald J. Trump fulfill the prophecy? Who cares?’ is another question that might come up. But our beat is money. And since the feds directly control 20% of GDP (in round numbers) and indirectly control another 20%, it’s worth looking more closely at how the new Trump model works.

“There are three stages to a king’s life,” explained a French friend at a party last night. The moon was full. We dined outside in a magnificent garden. Red wine and philosophy overcame him: “There is love. There is war. And there is architecture. All are ruinous. But architecture is the worst. Louis 14th’s Versailles Palace practically bankrupted France.”

Authoritarians don’t have to be big spenders. But most are. The Big Man tends to buy support by recycling taxpayer money. Plus, he has big ideas. He wants conquests, ‘wins,’ parades and monuments. So far, Trump’s lust-list has been fanciful (make Canada the 51st state!) or no worse than his Obama- and Biden-era predecessors. He did push through a big, beautiful budget abomination (BBBA) that will bring total US debt to $60 trillion or so by 2035.

But this is a feature of the old world, not a new one. The path to bankruptcy and financial chaos is well signposted and well-trod. The Big Man did not discover it. He merely stayed on it. When it came to ‘trade deals,’ however, Trump seemed to channel his inner Caesar. Government-managed trade is a major departure from the policies of the last 70+ years...and from the traditional platform of the Republican party.

The world learned long ago that people are generally better off when people are allowed to decide for themselves with whom and how they trade. But the lesson was lost on the Big Man. POTUS, not Congress (as the Constitution would seem to require) has imposed tariffs. They will be paid by importers, not exporters...and ultimately will amount to the biggest tax increase in American history. They are expected to bring in over $300 billion this year and $2 trillion over the next ten years...a huge transfer of real wealth from the taxpayers (in this case, consumers) to the feds.

And here is where the difference between clumsy, consensual democracy and Big Man government becomes important.How many Americans really want a tax increase? Not many. And among MAGA fans probably even fewer. Sen. Rand Paul put the question to Larry Kudlow: "But the question I would ask you, Larry [Kudlow], is, they're bragging that they think they can bring in $2 trillion in revenue over 10 years. If someone came to you and said, 'Hey Larry, I've got this great idea for a value-added tax that'll bring in $2 trillion over the next 10 years,' you'd shake your head and say 'We don't want to be Europeans, we're not for that, and we've never been for adding a sales tax without removing some other tax.' But...we're getting $2 trillion in taxes on top of all the other taxes that we have. So ultimately conservatives have to decide, do they like taxes because they're Donald Trump's taxes, or do we still say that we don't want more revenue coming out of the productive economy and going to government, that we want to balance the budget by reducing spending, not increasing taxes?"

Tariffs are not uniquely awful. Government absorbs a large part of national output each year. Whether it gets the money from income taxes, sales (tariff) taxes, or inflation (printing money)...the gross effect is the same. But the net effect...including the collateral damage...varies.

Income taxes (in theory) discourage people from earning more money. Sales taxes (including tariffs) discourage them from spending it. And inflation discourages them from saving it. Which is worse? We don’t know. But the Big Man in the White House insists on ALL three of them. We have direct income taxes. We have inflation. And now we have a huge ‘Value Added Tax’ masquerading as tariffs.

Most Americans may oppose it, but the Big Man does what he wants. Up to a point. The press reports that some MAGA fans – Rand Paul, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson et. al. - are asking: have we been betrayed? Suckered? Stabbed in the back? How serious is the ‘right-wing’ backlash? We’ll look at it next week."

Dan, I Allegedly, "Free Money Does Not Work! Free Money Fails"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 8/8/25
"Free Money Does Not Work! Free Money Fails"

"Hey everyone, it’s Dan from I Allegedly! Today, we’re diving into a hot topic: the hidden costs of Universal Basic Income (UBI). On the surface, “free money” sounds like a dream, but does it actually work? Spoiler alert: It doesn’t. From the 160 UBI programs running across the U.S. to the unintended consequences like demotivation and inflation, I’m breaking it all down in this video. We’ll talk about the impact these programs had during COVID, the shocking spending habits of recipients, and how this “free money” mindset could be reshaping our economy and society.

I also touch on the rising costs of child care, food, and basic living expenses, and why many families are struggling to keep up. Plus, we’ll explore how some people took advantage of government programs, like PPP fraud, and the fallout for those caught in the act. And yes, I share my thoughts on crazy business stories, including the struggles of barbecue chains like Dickies, and even a surprising update about Tesla Cybertrucks and the U.S. Air Force!"
Comments here:

Jim Kunstler, "Going, Going Gone..."

"Going, Going Gone..."
by Jim Kunstler

“Because they can no longer distinguish between fantasy and reality,
 they are too crazy to lead this country, and Americans know it.” 
- Sasha Stone on the Democratic Party

"In case you’re wondering why the Democratic Party is in a death spiral, it is the proportionate response to the damage they have done to American culture and politics. You might think that they fell haplessly into error, but their turn to Marxian idealism was a cover for a matrix of hustles and rackets to make up for a void of any sane political program.

Coming into the 21st century, our country was beset by looming decline. Our industrial base was going, going, gone, and with it millions of well-paying blue-collar jobs, the Democratic Party base. It was replaced by a so-called “financialized economy,” which was sanitized language for sets of swindles and frauds allowed to operate in the de-regulated banking system, in concert with the politicized Federal Reserve and crooked Congressional interests - you notice how many politicians paid $175-K a year somehow acquired multi-million-dollar fortunes?

What mainly grew in this period was government and things that fed off of it, such as the war industries, computer tech allied with the Intel gang, and especially the burgeoning universe of government-sponsored non-profit advocacy orgs, which became the jobs program for otherwise unemployables churned out of higher education, a racket that fed on federal loan guarantees. It was in the racketeering ecosystem that billionaires such as George Soros and Bill Gates could use their fortunes to advance their own personal obsessions through webs of non-governmental orgs (NGOs) to influence public affairs.

By 2016, that was really all that the Democratic Party had left. It was the source of their money and their power. They also had the accumulated political capital of race advocacy, starting with the civil rights crusades of the 1960s. After our victory over manifest evil in World War Two, the Jim Crow system had to go, or else America could not pretend to lead the so-called “free world.”

By some paradoxical alchemy of government policy and human nature, the civil rights campaign eventually produced a larger and more intractable “underclass” than existed before. This baffled liberal idealists who had expected a new era of brotherhood and equality. They could only account for it by “structural racism,” and the Marxian trope of “oppressors-and-victims” fit into that scaffold perfectly. It lured them into Marxian “praxis” generally, which by then was already failing everywhere else in the world it had been tried as “communism.”

One way to counter “structural racism” was to declare a new ethos of “multiculturalism,” meaning each ethnic or racial group could behave according to its own particular standards and values. It was like waving a magic wand to make failure disappear and it worked through the 1990s, (which happened to be the fattest years of cheap oil production in America). The trouble with multiculturalism was that it negated the thing that had held America together through vicissitudes such as the Great Depression and World War Two: The American common culture, the thing that belonged to everyone.

The MAGA movement has largely been an effort to reconstruct an American common culture, a consensus of values and behaviors we can all agree on. The Democratic Party opted to oppose that - a poor choice. In fact, they apparently viewed that effort as an existential threat to the hustles and rackets that were sustaining the party. For instance, the jobs program for otherwise unemployable college grads who styled themselves as “activists” working for NGOs under the umbrella of USAID.

This was the party’s army of influencers, organizers, ward-heelers, and ballot-harvesters, laboring on behalf of the “victims of oppression.” Quite a few of them resided in Academia, where they cultivated a whole lexicon of arcane, gnostic, crypto-Marxian ideology aimed not just at opposing the recovery of a common culture, but destroying whatever remnants of it remained.

The catch was: they didn’t believe in “social justice” or “diversity, equity, and inclusion.” That was just a smokescreen of verbiage over their race hustle, which means extorting money, unearned advantages, and status dishonestly. Thus was DEI birthed. And, with it, colossal frauds of “victimhood” such as the beatification of George Floyd and a long line of similar “justice-involved” cases that generated an impressive revenue flow for the Democrats.

That revenue flow and its utility for holding power was all they had left in 2024. It explains the empty symbolism of running Kamala Harris for president. Now, the money flow is gone and so is the party’s power and perhaps its last remaining reason for existence: the maintenance of its own power. Notice that the Democrats can’t even advocate for the return of USAID, now that it has been unmasked as rife with financial fraud and crime.

There is surely a need for an opposition party to any in-party, which happens to be Mr. Trump’s Republicans at the moment, if only because power corrupts. You can see the outline of what that new opposition party might be: a party of re-localization, of small business and small farmers, of traditional towns as opposed to still-rampant and malignant suburban sprawl. Some related issues already belong to MAGA, such as smaller government, the protection of privacy, respect for the Bill of Rights - but these would be implicit in the restoration of an American common culture, a set of values and standards of behavior that both parties in a two-party system can subscribe to."

Thursday, August 7, 2025

"Millions Will Soon Be Unemployed!"

Full screen recommended.
Steven Van Metre, 8/7/25
"Millions Will Soon Be Unemployed!"
The shocking proof that we're on the brink of a crisis, 
one that will impact every American family.
Comments here:

"Rental Market Apocalypse Begins As Americans Can’t Afford Insane Prices"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 8/7/25
"Rental Market Apocalypse Begins
 As Americans Can’t Afford Insane Prices"

"Landlords are panicking. Rent prices just dropped 10% in 12 months but nobody can still afford them. Rental vacancy rates tripled. Properties sit empty for months. I just talked to a property manager who has to cut his rental price by 100 dollars every week until someone takes it. That's how desperate this rental market crisis has gotten. But here's where the housing affordability crisis gets worse. Jacksonville has 18,000 new apartments flooding the market right now. Developers are offering 3 months free rent, no deposits, even throwing in TVs just to get people in the door. This is creating even more competition for regular landlords dealing with rising mortgage rates.

At the same time, all those people who bought houses in 2020-2022 thinking they'd work from home forever? They're getting called back to the office but can't sell their properties due to the housing bubble. So now they're accidentally becoming landlords and losing 800+ dollars per month, adding even more rental inventory to an already oversaturated market.

And it's not just regular rentals. Phoenix went from 5,000 Airbnbs to over 21,000. Most are sitting empty. Insurance costs exploded 300%. Some owners are getting hit with 30,000 dollar fines from cities. Many are now dumping their Airbnb properties into the long-term rental market, making this rent affordability problem even worse. The result? 70% of Americans are financially stressed in this cost of living crisis and nobody wins in this rental market collapse."
Comments here:

"Store Closures Hit Record High; Crypto In Your 401K; Panera Bread Employees Could Go Homeless"

Jeremiah Babe, 8/7/25
"Store Closures Hit Record High; Crypto In Your 401K; 
Panera Bread Employees Could Go Homeless"
Comments here:

Gerald Celente, "Presstitute Media And Immoral Humans: 'We Hate Celente, He's For Peace'"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 8/7/25
"Presstitute Media And Immoral Humans:
 'We Hate Celente, He's For Peace'"
The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times.
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Il Divo, "Wicked Game" ("Melanconia")

Full screen recommended.
Il Divo, "Wicked Game" ("Melanconia")
(Live In London 2011)

English lyrics here:

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Sprawling emission nebulae IC 1396 and Sh2-129 mix glowing interstellar gas and dark dust clouds in this 10 degree wide field of view toward the northern constellation Cepheus the King. Energized by its bluish central star IC 1396 (left) is hundreds of light-years across and some 3,000 light-years distant. 
The nebula's intriguing dark shapes include a winding dark cloud popularly known as the Elephant's Trunk below and right of center. Tens of light-years long, it holds the raw raw material for star formation and is known to hide protostars within. Located a similar distance from planet Earth, the bright knots and swept back ridges of emission of Sh2-129 on the right suggest its popular name, the Flying Bat Nebula. Within the Flying Bat, the most recently recognized addition to this royal cosmic zoo is the faint bluish emission from Ou4, the Giant Squid nebula."

"A Kind Of Stubborn, Unrecognized Courage..."

"For many great deeds are accomplished in times of squalid struggle. There is a kind of stubborn, unrecognized courage which in the lowest depths tenaciously resists the pressures of necessity and ill-doing; there are noble and obscure triumphs observed by no one, unacclaimed by any fanfare. Hardship, loneliness, and penury are a battlefield which has its own heroes, sometimes greater than those lauded in history. Strong and rare characters are thus created; poverty nearly always a foster-mother, may become a true mother, distress may be the nursemaid of pride, and misfortune the milk that nourishes great spirits."
- Victor Hugo