"When you have given nothing, ask for nothing."
- Albanian Proverb
So, we rise from the rubble...
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Wednesday, January 29, 2025
“Screw The Way Things Are, I Want Out!”
“Screw The Way Things Are, I Want Out!”
by Paul Rosenberg
“This is a beautiful planet, filled, in the main, with decent, cooperative humans. And yet, I want out. Give me any kind of functional spaceship and any reasonable chance, and I’ll take it. This place is anti-human. It chokes the best that’s in us, aggressively and self-righteously. I was struck not long ago by a comment of Ludwig Wittgenstein’s, in which he expressed the same kind of feeling: “I ought to have become a star in the sky. Instead of which I have remained stuck on earth…”
All of us who’ve had a moment of transcendence - who made some type of contact with what is truly the best inside ourselves - have also sensed that life in the current world is incompatible with it. I think we should stop burying that understanding beneath piles of “that’s the way things are,” “we should be realistic,” and “you can’t fight City Hall.”
Screw the way things are, screw “realistic,” and screw City Hall too. I was made for better things than this, and you were too.
Everywhere I turn, some kind of ruler, sub-ruler, enforcer, regulator, or “right-thinking” quasi-enforcer demands not only my money but also for me to make myself easy to punish, thus showing myself to be a good subservient. That’s not just wrong; it’s a disease. I don’t care whether such people are “following orders,” “just doing their job,” or whatever else they tell themselves to soothe their rightly troubled souls. That mode of living is perverse, and these people are enforcing a disease.
Let me make this part very clear: The desire to control others is disease; it is corruption. Willing controllers are a morally inferior class. And the truly deranged thing is that these people rule the world! Forget about why this is so - we can debate that later - focus rather on the utter insanity of this: A minority of moral defectives, who think extortion is a virtue, rule people who are happy to live and let live, by force.
That’s outright lunacy. And to support the lunacy, we have lies, intimidation, and slogans: “In a democracy, you’re really ruling yourself,” “Only crazy people disagree,” “It’s always been this way,” and so on. To all of which I reply, How stupid do you think we are? You drilled that crap into us when we were children, but we’re not children anymore. And if “our way” isn’t as bad as North Korea, that makes it right? Only to a fool.
And the results of “the way it’s always been”… my God, the results… A study from the 1980s found that since 3600 BC, the world has known only 292 years of peace. During this period there have been 14,531 wars, large and small, in which 3.6 billion people have been killed.
This is what I’m supposed to serve with all my heart and soul? A Bronze Age system that can’t keep itself from slaughter? We’re talking about a 5,600-year track record of mass death, and yet fundamental change is considered unthinkable? Well, screw that too, because I think deep, fundamental change is called for, and was called for a long time ago.
Again, this is a wonderful planet and most of the people on it are decent, but it is ruled by insanity, and I want out. Yes, I know, there’s really nowhere to go. Every place I might go is dominated by the same diseased model, and dissent is punished the same, and in some places worse. That’s one of the reasons space appeals to me; it gives me a chance to escape this madness.
I’ll draw this to a close with a passage from C. Delisle Burns’s wonderful "The First Europe," describing why the Roman Empire collapsed: “Great numbers of men and women were unwilling to make the effort required for the maintenance of the old order, not because they were not good enough to fulfill their civic duties, but because they were too good to be satisfied with a system from which so few derived benefit.”
I, for one, am unwilling to expend any effort to maintain the present order. It is by its nature incompatible with the best that is in us, and always will be. Those of us who want to be more and better cannot support the current order without opposing what’s best in ourselves. Screw that.”
"Pareto's Foxes"
"Pareto's Foxes"
by Bill Bonner
"There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never." ~ John Adams
"The reckoning hour approaches. Charlie Bilello: "The Leading Economic Index has now declined for 16 consecutive months, the longest down streak since 2007-08. What are some signs pointing to economic weakness?
a) Industrial Production, which declined on a YoY basis for the 2nd straight month.
b) Retail Sales, which after adjusting for inflation have fallen for 9 straight months.
Both Target ($TGT) and Home Depot ($HD) reported lower revenue than a year ago, a sign that the US consumer may be pulling back.
Foxes and Clucks: Market timers wait for the sell-off. Economists wait for the recession. Here at Bonner Private Research, we are on suicide watch. In the rich muck beneath the news is the story of the rise of America’s elite – the rich men north of Richmond. It’s the real story of America…a story of power and how it is abused by those whom the famous Italian economist, Wilfredo Pareto, called ‘the foxes.’ They are the clever ones. They are at the top of the heap. Whatever you call your government – they are the ones in charge.
Why bother to look at it like that? Because there are still chapters to be written…and, most likely, it won’t end well. What’s good for the foxes isn’t necessarily good for the clucks in the henhouse.
What we’ve seen, in the story of the USA, is a tale of millions of triumphs – from Powerglide steering to Post-it notes to cleaning up the Chesapeake Bay. But we’ve seen failures too – and a particular kind of flop (described by Adams, above): the foxes are corrupted by power…and their desire to dominate sucks up more and more of the nation’s wealth. Pointless foreign wars…unproductive ‘investments’…bureaucracy…taxes…inflation…and futile ‘programs’ whose only real consequence is to make the rich richer and the powerful even more obnoxious – democracy cuts its own wrists…and bleeds out its vital capital.
The major political parties squabble over bathroom rights…and can’t be bothered to balance the budget. The geniuses at the Fed bring disaster after disaster by pretending to improve a $25 trillion, global economy. America’s military/industrial complex has become a $1.5 trillion/year colossus that can’t win a war. Its pharma/medical complex shuts down the whole economy… delivering drugs that don’t work…and life expectancies fall.
The Vainglory of the Elites: For while the Democrats were on TV howling furiously at the Republicans…and the conservatives were making obscene gestures at liberals in Congress…while the rights of the unborn were debated…the rights of the gender-affirming millennials were assured…. ‘hate’ speech was condemned…women were trained for combat roles.. .TV talk show hosts are ‘called out’ for saying the wrong thing…while pasteurization, vaccinations, and standardization were undertaken by armies of regulators…while the habits of the halibut were studied…while the fat, the lame, smokers and drug abusers were cared for…the idle were subsidized…reckless bankers were excused from bankruptcy…imprudent investors were rescued… incompetent generals were promoted, along with insufferable jackasses, such as Victoria Nuland and Anthony Blinken... US troops dispatched to nearly every woebegone sh*thole country in the world…lobbyists rewarded…bribes offered and taken…reputations built…the stock market pumped…sinecures secured…connivers connived…ill-gotten gains gotten…and trillions in tax money, loans, and printed money handed out to unworthy causes and shady characters…while all this was going on…the rich men north of Richmond grew richer and more powerful than ever.
Little by little…then by huge bounds…energy drained away, out of things that really matter – work, saving, investment, innovation, generosity, courtesy, humility – and into the precincts of the rich, so as to enhance the vainglory of the elites. Yes, America could dominate the world. But she was never mistress of herself; never could she control her elites’ drive for dominion."
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"Pareto’s Foxes”
by Bill Bonner
"Let’s start with the government, which controls – directly or indirectly – about half the U.S. economy. It was not intended to be so big, so powerful, and so intrusive. But then, it hardly resembles the blueprint described in the Constitution. Elections matter a whole lot less than you think.
As the great Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto explained, no matter what you call your government, over time, it will be taken over by the cunning insiders and hustlers he called “foxes.” There are always some smart people able to manipulate, control, and subvert the government and use its police power (governments claim a monopoly on the use of violence) to get what they want. What do these foxes want? Money. Power. Status. The usual.
There is nothing underhanded about it. Nothing sinister or surprising. And you don’t need to believe in conspiracies to understand it. The subversion takes place right out in the open. But because it is so different from what we are looking for, we don’t even see it. But it’s really very simple: You spend your time earning money. The foxes spend their time figuring out how to get it from you – by taxation, legislation, regulation, or an ingenious phony-money system."
"The Worst Part..."
"Our world is not safe. It is a toxic swamp populated by predators and parasites. The odds are stacked against us from the moment of conception. We survive only because we fight the elements, hunger, disease, each other. And, although civilization promises us safe harbor, that promise is a fairy tale. Only the storm is real. It comes for each of us. And we cannot win. We can only choose how we will suffer our defeat. We can meekly take our beatings, and die like lemmings, finding solace in the belief that we shall one day inherit the earth. Or, we can plunge into the chaos with eyes wide open, taking comfort instead from the bruises, scars, and broken bones which prove that we fought to live and die as gods. "
- J.K. Franko, "Life for Life"
o
"The worst part is wondering how you'll find the strength tomorrow to go on doing what you did today and have been doing for much too long, where you'll find the strength for all that stupid running around, those projects that come to nothing, those attempts to escape from crushing necessity, which always founder and serve only to convince you one more time that destiny is implacable, that every night will find you down and out, crushed by the dread of more and more sordid and insecure tomorrows. And maybe it's treacherous old age coming on, threatening the worst. Not much music left inside us for life to dance to. Our youth has gone to the ends of the earth to die in the silence of the truth. And where, I ask you, can a man escape to, when he hasn't enough madness left inside him? The truth is an endless death agony. The truth is death. You have to choose: death or lies. I've never been able to kill myself. "
- Louis-Ferdinand Celineo
o
"In the movie 'The Lion in Winter', when the sons, in the dungeon, think they hear Henry coming down the stairs to kill them:
Richard: "He's here! He'll get no satisfaction out of us! Don't let him see you beg! Take it like a man!"
Geoffrey: "You chivalric fool! As if the way one falls down matters!"
Richard: "Well, when the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal. "
Judge Napolitano, "Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: Trump and Palestinian Freedom"
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 1/29/25
"Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: Trump and Palestinian Freedom"
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Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 1/29/25
"Col. Douglas Macgregor: Trump and War"
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Dan, I Allegedly, "No One Can Afford A Home"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 1/29/25
"No One Can Afford A Home"
"Real estate is in serious trouble, and 2025 could bring a housing market disaster unlike anything we've seen in decades. From skyrocketing interest rates to canceled contracts and insurance nightmares, I’m breaking down why the numbers tell a grim story for the future of housing. Did you know December 2024 saw 40,000 real estate deals fall apart? It’s getting harder for buyers and sellers to navigate this market, and I’m here to explain why holding off might be the smartest move right now.
We’ll cover the shocking trends in home prices, cancellations, and foreclosures, along with how insurance issues are wreaking havoc on condo associations and single-family homes across the country. Plus, I’ll dive into why states like Florida and California are at the center of a growing foreclosure crisis and how this will impact the market long-term."
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Full screen recommended.
Michael Bordenaro, 1/29/25
"We Haven't Seen Anything Like This Since 2009"
"The U.S. housing market is facing circumstances that we haven't seen since 2009 in terms of how many brand new homes are sitting on the market for sale and sales volumes sitting at 30 year lows. What is going on and what does this implicate about the broader economy?"
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"11 Random Facts That Show That America Is Rotting And Decaying Right In Front Of Our Eyes"
"11 Random Facts That Show That America
Is Rotting And Decaying Right In Front Of Our Eyes"
by Michael Snyder
"We are in far more trouble than most people realize. Fentanyl and other drugs are ravaging our cities, and homelessness, poverty and hunger are rapidly growing all around us. Meanwhile, our federal government, our state governments, and our local governments are drowning in debt, and economic conditions are steadily deteriorating. Corruption is rampant, incompetence is seemingly everywhere, and the moral decay of our society is accelerating. Unfortunately, much of the population is completely oblivious to what is going on because they are deeply addicted to the electronic gadgets that they are constantly staring at. The following are 11 random facts that show that America is rotting right in front of our eyes…
#1 A new study has discovered that smartphones “are making teenagers more aggressive” and are causing them to “hallucinate”…"Smartphones are making teenagers more aggressive, detached from reality and causing them to hallucinate, according to new research. Scientists concluded the younger a person starts using a phone, the more likely they would be crippled by a whole host of psychological ills after surveying 10,500 teens between 13 and 17 from both the US and India for the study, by Sapien Labs. “People don’t fully appreciate that hyper-real and hyper-immersive screen experiences can blur reality at key stages of development,” addiction psychologist Dr. Nicholas Kardaras, who was not part of the team who did the study, told The Post.
#2 According to Bloomberg, our cost of living crisis is driving more working Americans than ever to seek assistance from food banks…"Once a month, Kersstin Eshak visits a food pantry in Loudoun County, Virginia to stretch her family’s budget. Eshak’s husband works at a big box retailer. She works as a substitute teacher. They have income, but with prices up nearly 23% over the past five years - and still rising - their earnings just don’t stretch quite far enough some months. Food banks across the nation are seeing a similar story: A post-pandemic wave of demand for food driven by working people caught in America’s cost-of-living crunch.
#3 The U.S. national debt was sitting at about $10 trillion dollars when Barack Obama first entered the White House. Today, it is sitting at $36.2 trillion dollars.
#4 Criminals freely roam the streets, but a pastor in Ohio could face jail time for using his church to house the homeless…"The only problem is that while opening up his church — Dad’s Place in Bryan, Ohio - to the homeless, he’s also opened himself up to the reality of city code. “Pastor Avell has known that this was not permitted use and that he does not have firewalls, he does not have sprinkler systems,” said Bryan Mayor Carrie Schlade. “The kind of things you need in a residential facility. “
#5 A cryptocurrency called “Fartcoin” that was created as a joke currently has a market capitalization of 847 million dollars.
#6 Fentanyl is absolutely destroying communities all over America. For example, check out what has been happing in Las Cruces, New Mexico…"Las Cruces authorities say they first encountered fentanyl in 2018. In 2020, they confiscated a total of 461 pills. In 2021, the first year of the Biden administration, fentanyl seizures exploded to more than 22,600 – and continued rising: roughly 70,000 pills were seized in 2022 and nearly 86,000 in 2023.
“It wasn’t in Las Cruces, and then it was, and then it was everywhere. In 2021, it really intensified and we’ve seen that the past few years. During that same period from 2018 to 2021, we saw a huge increase in crime: an 85% increase in violent crime and a 71% increase in property crime,” Las Cruces Chief of Police Jeremy Story stated last year during a virtual press conference on New Mexico’s fentanyl epidemic.
#7 In 2024, corporate bankruptcies in the United States reached the highest level “since the 2008 financial crisis”.
#8 We don’t hear much about cargo theft, but it reached a staggering 454 million dollars in 2024. That was a brand new all-time record high…"Cargo theft hit a record high in the U.S. and Canada for the second consecutive year, and the trend is expected to continue as criminal enterprises have become more sophisticated in their methods. Verisk CargoNet’s annual analysis released this week found that cargo theft surged 27% from 2023 to 2024, hitting a record 3,625 reported incidents last year with an average value of $202,364 per theft. All told, the losses are estimated at more than $454 million."
#9 According to the New York Times, 15 percent of the “women” in our federal prisons are transgender.
#10 Most of the foods on our grocery store shelves are “highly processed”, and since “highly processed foods” are less expensive many U.S. consumers tend to gravitate to them…"Next time you walk down the aisles of your local grocery store, take a closer look at what’s actually available on those shelves. A stunning report reveals the majority of food products sold at major U.S. grocery chains are highly processed, with most of them priced significantly cheaper than less processed alternatives.
In what may be the most comprehensive analysis of food processing in American grocery stores to date, researchers examined over 50,000 food items sold at Walmart, Target, and Whole Foods to understand just how processed our food supply really is. Using sophisticated machine learning techniques, they developed a database called GroceryDB that scores foods based on their degree of processing."
#11 Homelessness in the U.S. is at the highest level ever recorded, and it is increasing at the fastest pace ever recorded.
We desperately need change in this country.And you are never too young to be part of that change. Just check out how old some of our founding fathers were in 1776…
• James Monroe was 18 years old.
• Aaron Burr was 20 years old.
• John Marshall was 20 years old.
• Alexander Hamilton was 21 years old.
• James Madison was 25 years old
• John Jay was 30 years old.
• Thomas Jefferson was 33 years old.
If we truly want to make this country great again, we need to rediscover the values and principles that once made this country so great. Our nation is in the condition that it is today because of the choices that we have made. If we want to turn things around, we must start making better choices. Anyone that does not understand this is just being delusional."
Gregory Mannarino, "The Stage Is Set, Today Is The Day, And What Is Going To Happen Will Be Epic!"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 1/29/25
"The Stage Is Set, Today Is The Day,
And What Is Going To Happen Will Be Epic!"
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"Death, No Taxes?"
"Death, No Taxes?"
Did Trump just signal the end of the IRS?
by Joel Bowman
“In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes.”
~ Benjamin Franklin in a letter to Jean-Baptiste Le Roy (1789)
"Last week we floated a dangerous question, cleverly cloaked as an outrageous proposition... After Donald Trump announced the birth of a brand new federal agency during his inauguration speech, the so-called External Revenue Service, we wondered aloud whether this new, para-market bureaucracy would exist in addition to its malformed, domestic sibling (the Internal Revenue Service)...or instead of it?
Bearing in mind Benjamin Franklin’s famous quip, we assumed it would be a case of the former... even though Trump’s own phrasing appeared to imply the latter. See for yourself, from his Jan. 20 address: “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax other countries to enrich our citizens. For this purpose, we are establishing the External Revenue Service, to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues [...] the American Dream will soon be back and thriving like never before.”
The remark echoed an earlier social media post, which Trump began: “For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People, using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)...”
Hmm... Was The Donald really toying with the idea of axing the IRS? Had Javier Milei-style “chainsaw economics” really made its way north of the Rio Grande?
Chainsaw Economics: Readers will recall that it was late last year when Argentina’s anarcho-capitalist president radically overhauled the federal tax agency down at this End of the World, slashing the number of public disservants and cutting salaries in the deservedly unpopular ranks by up to 90%. Still, we doubted whether anything similar would happen at the other end of the Americas.
But lo! What have we here? Not one week into his second term, the 45th and 47th President of the United States of America told citizens at a rally in Las Vegas...“On day one, I immediately halted the hiring of any new IRS agents. They hired, or tried to hire, 88,000 new workers to go after you. And we're in the process of developing a plan to either terminate all of them or maybe we'll move them to the border. And I think we're going to move them to the border.”
Trump was referring to the ironically named “Inflation Reduction Act,” through which the Biden administration approved $80 billion in new federal funding for the IRS, including hiring tens of thousands of goose-stepping tax collectors over the ensuing decade. Scranton Joe signed that beastly legislation into law back in 2022, when “transitory” inflation turned out to be rather more (shall we say?) enduring than the expert class had led everyone to believe.
Answering a call from a (presumably taxpaying?) attendee at the Vegas rally, who shouted out from the crowd, “How ‘bout no taxes on anything?” Trump answered: “She said ‘no tax.’ How about just no tax, period? You could do that. You know, if the tariffs work out like I think, a thing like that could happen, if you want to know the truth.” Trump then reiterated his “no tax on tips” campaign promise, which he pre-stole from the multi-talentless Kamala Harris, even before she thought of it! "Any worker who relies on tips [as] income, your tips will be 100% yours."
What’s next, we wondered? Bring the troops home? Balance the budget? Return to market-based money and recognize that only women can have babies?
President Incognito: Naturally, the first thing we did after reading the news was to check our Notes subscriber lists – free and paid. You won’t believe it, but nowhere among our dear readers did we discover the name “Trump” attached to an email address. Not even on the Founding Member rolls! Assuming, therefore, that the president must be perusing these pages incognito, as a subterrene Notes devotee, we will proceed as if we had what’s left of the man’s ear, just the same...
Here ye, Mr. President! When it comes to handling government hires – old, new, prospective, defective, infective, what-have-you – we’re firmly in the “termination” camp. Remember Ron Paul’s response when the good doctor was asked: “But if you ‘End the Fed,’ what will you replace it with?” “When you cut out a cancer, what do you replace it with?”
To switch metaphors, we want less playing cards in the government, Mr. President, not crafty reshuffling from the bottom of the deck. In other words, if there exists no natural market demand for the so-called “services” provided by a government employee, no real world price for his labor, at least that a real world person is voluntarily willing to pay, the position probably should not exist in the first place.
And in cases where there is a natural demand – for firefighters, say, or nurses, or local community workers – the free market is far better placed to answer the public’s call than some 450lb DEI hire up a wobbly ladder, one whose primary qualification is that they happen to “look like” the poor sap in the burning building they’re supposed to be rescuing. In a slogan: For all that doesn’t need doing, there’s government. For everything else, there’s the market. But let us return to our subject at hand: Taxation.
What’s in a Name? “Inflation reduction”... “a social contract”... “wealth redistribution”... “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need”... Call it what you will, it all amounts to the same thing at the end of the day. As William Shakespeare himself almost wrote, “That which we call theft, by any other name would still spell a cheat.”
But can the world’s largest (and costliest) government apparatus really get by without direct taxation? After all, individual income tax receipts account for a whopping $2.43 trillion in annual “revenue” for the federal government. That’s enough to cover Social Security outlays ($1.5 trillion), Healthcare ($920 billion) and... well, that’s about it.
And that’s before $900 billion each (give or take) in National Offense, Medicare and Interest on the Debt... to say nothing of Income Security, Veteran’s Benefits, Miseducation, Transportation and “Other,” a miscellaneous category which, itself, commands a cool $311 billion annually.
Mr. Trump argues that tariffs can replace this federal “income,” that making foreigners “pay their fair share” can feed the insatiable government beast. But is this really true? Certainly, such a scenario is presented as an attractive alternative to those hardworking citizens who see federal income taxes directly deducted (withheld) from their take home pay.
Ah, but the dismal science of economics is not only about that which is seen, as the great Frederic Bastiat reminds us, but also that which is unseen. One must be careful that what the right hand giveth, the left hand does not taketh away. And here Argentina offers a cautionary tale in protectionism and self-sanctioning, what egghead economists called “import substitution theory.”
How did that work out? We promised an essay on the painful Peronist experiment of economic isolationism last week, but found ourselves obliged to cover the happier occasion of Ross Ulbricht’s unconditional pardoning instead. Don’t worry, curious reader, we haven’t forgotten you. Stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World... Cheers."
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
"Russian Nuclear Site Attacked! Massive Deep Strikes! Trump's WW3 Plan Complete Breakdown!"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 1/28/25
"Russian Nuclear Site Attacked! Massive Deep Strikes!
Trump's WW3 Plan Complete Breakdown!"
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Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 1/29/25
"Nuclear War Trigger For Putin?
Russia In 'Revenge Mode' After Ukraine Attacks Nuke Facility"
"Ukraine reportedly launched a massive drone attack on Russia’s Smolensk region, with debris from a downed drone falling near the Smolenskaya nuclear power plant. No casualties or damage were immediately reported. Russia intercepted dozens of UAVs across multiple regions, including Bryansk, Tver, and Nizhny Novgorod. Moscow accused Kyiv of "nuclear terrorism," citing repeated attacks on energy facilities, including nuclear sites in Kursk and Zaporizhzhia."
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"Most People Have No Idea What's Coming"
Full screen recommended.
Richard Wolff, 1/28/25
"Most People Have No Idea What's Coming"
"Richard D. Wolff is an American economist and professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He is known for his critiques of economic inequality and his advocacy for worker cooperatives as a way to empower individuals and address systemic issues within the economy. Through his books, lectures, and public appearances, Wolff explores topics such as economic democracy and alternative economic models."
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"2025: On the Brink of the Biggest Oil Shock in History"
"2025: On the Brink of the
Biggest Oil Shock in History"
by Nick Giambruno
"The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. It’s the world’s single most important energy corridor, and there’s no alternative route. Five of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait - border the Persian Gulf, as does Qatar, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. The Strait of Hormuz is their only sea route to the open ocean… and world markets. At its narrowest point, the space available for shipping lanes is just 3.2 kilometers wide.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily. That’s more than $1.5 billion worth of oil every day. And that’s not considering the immense amount of LNG - about 33% of the world’s daily LNG exports - and other goods transiting the Strait.
It’s hard to overstate the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global economy. If someone were to disrupt the Strait, it would cause immediate global economic chaos as energy prices skyrocket. Thanks to its commanding geography and expertise in unconventional and asymmetric warfare, Iran can shut down the Strait, and there’s not much anyone can do about it. It’s Iran’s geopolitical trump card.
Analysts believe it would take several weeks for the US military to reopen it, but nobody knows if it would succeed. Numerous Pentagon war games suggest it wouldn’t. Military strategists have known about this situation for decades. But no one has found a realistic way to neutralize Iran’s power over the Strait. Iran has been crystal clear that it will close the Strait in the case of war. In other words, Iran holds a knife to the throat of the global economy.
The US has sought to overthrow the Iranian government since the 1979 Revolution - for over 40 years. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has always served as a big deterrent to US regime change ambitions and invasion plans. Now, in 2025, Iran and the US are headed toward a confrontation that will almost certainly disrupt the Strait. If war breaks out between the US and Iran - an increasingly likely outcome - I have no doubt that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. To call that a severe oil supply disruption would be a major understatement.
Consider this…During the first oil shock in 1973, about 5 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 56 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 9% of the supply vanished. Oil prices roughly quadrupled.
During the second oil shock in 1979, about 4 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 67 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 6% of the supply vanished. Oil prices nearly tripled.
During the third oil shock in 1990, about 4.3 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 66 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 7% of the supply vanished. Oil prices more than doubled.
If Iran were to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, it would remove a whopping 21 million barrels of oil from the global market. Today, global oil production is around 96 million barrels per day, which means about 22% of the worldwide oil supply could disappear. It would be the largest oil supply shock the world has ever seen… by far.
If war with Iran proceeds and Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz, I think the effect on the price of oil will be at least as severe as it was during the 1973 oil shock, which saw oil prices go up 4x. A similar move today could see oil prices around $300 a barrel. However, I consider that a conservative estimate because closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause a much larger supply shock than the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. I think the market doesn’t appreciate how close we are to a war with Iran and the implications of it. The oil price has barely moved despite the imminent danger to supplies.
We haven’t returned to pre-2014 levels yet, let alone the 2008 peak of over $140 per barrel. And that’s not even taking into account the massive debasement of the US dollar that has happened since. Allow me to clarify one thing. I’m certainly not cheering for war. I despise war, which is the health of the State. Regardless, a big war with Iran is highly likely, with significant implications that would be foolish to ignore."
"Americans Panic, Trump Orders Federal Funding Freeze"
Snyder Reports, 1/28/25
"Americans Panic, Trump Orders Federal Funding Freeze"
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"Economic Black Hole: Here Are 25 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Dying After 4 Years Of “Bidenomics”
"Economic Black Hole: Here Are 25 Signs That The
U.S. Economy Is Dying After 4 Years Of “Bidenomics”
by Michael Snyder
"The damage caused by 4 years of “Bidenomics” has been so immense that it is difficult to put it into words. Everywhere we look, the U.S. economy is rapidly deteriorating all around us, and it would literally take a major miracle to turn things around at this point. Needless to say, the condition of the economy was one of the biggest reasons why Donald Trump won the election, and he insists that he can get fix it. Now he will get his chance. But the economic challenges that he is facing in 2025 are far greater than anything that confronted him when his first term began many years ago. If Trump is able to get the U.S. economy moving in a positive direction after everything that has happened during the past 4 years, it will truly be a historic achievement.
Nobody can deny the facts that I am about to present to you, because they are indisputable. Collectively, these facts clearly prove that our economy is a complete mess right now. The following are 25 signs that the U.S. economy is dying after 4 years of “Bidenomics”…
#1 In 2024, sales of previously-owned homes in the United States fell to the lowest level since 1995…"U.S. existing-home sales fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 1995, the second straight year of anemic sales due to stubbornly high mortgage rates. High costs related to homeownership sapped sales again. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making it prohibitively expensive for many Americans to buy homes at current prices, which hit record highs last year. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to homeowners’ expenses. Unlike mortgage rates, which fluctuate, these costs are poised to continue rising."
#2 Pending home sales dropped another 4.5 percent last month. That was the fastest rate of decline that we have seen in more than two years…"Pending home sales fell 4.5% month over month in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest decline since October 2022. They dropped 2.3% year over year. Homebuyer demand dipped at the end of the year because mortgage rates jumped. After inching downward at the beginning of the month, mortgage rates reversed course halfway through December and have been rising since—in part because the Federal Reserve projected fewer 2025 interest-rate cuts than anticipated. The weekly average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate now sits at 7.04%, the highest level since May, after hitting an early-December low of 6.6%."
#3 The proportion of credit card accounts that are just having minimum payments being made on them just hit the highest level in 12 years…"Americans are not okay financially, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The share of active credit card accounts making just the minimum payment hit a 12-year high of 10.75% from July through September 2024, based on data from the largest banks in the country, the Philadelphia Fed said on Wednesday. As credit card balances swell, the share of delinquent balances is also worsening, it said."
#4 The 60-plus-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans just reached the highest level ever recorded for the month of December…"The 60-plus-day delinquency rate of subprime auto loans rose to 6.15% in December, a new record for December in the data from Fitch, which tracks subprime auto-loan asset-backed securities (ABS), going back to their origins in the early 1990s. Subprime delinquency rates rose to record highs in 2023 and rose further in 2024. They peak seasonally in January in February. If January and February 2025 follow seasonal patterns, subprime delinquency rates will set new all-time highs (gold in the chart below).
#5 Credit rejection rates have hit levels that we have not seen since the global financial crisis…"The landscape of American credit has taken a stark turn for the worse, with rejection rates for various forms of credit reaching levels not seen since the financial turmoil of a decade ago. According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, rejection rates for loans, including credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans, have spiked to 23%. This figure marks the highest recorded since the depths of the financial crisis, signaling a significant contraction in credit availability. Moreover, the rejection rate for credit card limit increases has reached nearly 50%, indicating that even those with existing credit lines are facing unprecedented hurdles in expanding their credit.
#6 Restaurant chains are going bankrupt at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic…"Chain restaurant bankruptcies are reportedly at their highest level since the pandemic. Among the most recent examples is the casual dining franchise TGI Friday’s, one of more than a dozen high-profile eateries to seek bankruptcy protection between January and October of this year, Bloomberg News reported Thursday (Dec. 5), citing BankruptcyData. According to the report, that’s the most through that date since 2020, and next year could bring more turmoil, with restaurant prices jumping due to increased labor costs, supply chain issues and steeper interest expenses, lessening consumer demand for meals away from home.
#7 After rising 12.7 percent in 2023, the cost of home insurance went up another 10.4 percent in 2024…"In 2024, insurers raised rates by 10.4 percent as of Dec. 27, which followed a 12.7 percent hike in the previous year, according to the Jan. 21 report from the company. In total, 33 states saw premiums climb by double digits last year, with the largest spike seen in Nebraska at 22.7 percent. Premiums in Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Utah, and Washington jumped by more than 20 percent.
#8 The average price of a dozen eggs went up 36 percent in just 12 months, and it is expected to go even higher during the months ahead…"The average price of a dozen large, grade-A eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Egg prices were also up more than 36% year-over-year in December, according to the Consumer Price Index. “Not to be the bearer of bad news, but we’re in this for a while,” said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board. “Until we have time without a detection, unfortunately this very, very tight egg supply is going to continue.”
#9 The household income required to purchase an average home in the U.S. has more than tripled since January 2012…"In January 2012, the household income required to afford the typical home in the U.S. was $39,223, according to Redfin. As of November 2024, home buyers need to earn $126,764, a 223% increase."
#10 A “healthcare giant” that operates 16 hospitals in the U.S. has just filed for bankruptcy…"A healthcare giant that operates 16 hospitals across four states has filed for bankruptcy – with plans to offload several of them. Prospect Medical Holdings – which also owns 166 clinics across California, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and employs 12,600 people – filed for Chapter 11 protection in Texas on Saturday. The company, which was once an active buyer of struggling hospitals, has debts of more than $400 million."
#11 The hiring rate in the U.S. in the month of November was “the lowest since the early 2010s”…"Hiring was anemic at the end of 2024. November’s hiring rate of 3.3% is the lowest since the early 2010s when the US was struggling after the Great Recession."
#12 The Washington Post has announced that it will be laying off about 4 percent of its workers…"The Washington Post has started laying off roughly 4 percent of its work force, the company said on Tuesday, as the newspaper struggles to stem millions of dollars in annual losses. The cuts will affect fewer than 100 people across The Post’s business divisions, which include its advertising sales, marketing and information technology teams."
#13 It is being reported that CNN will be laying off hundreds of workers… "CNN boss Mark Thompson reportedly plans to announce mass layoffs Thursday — just days after he warned top on-air talent including Jake Tapper and Anderson Cooper that they ought to avoid “pre-judging” President Trump. The ratings-challenged cable news pioneer will lay off hundreds of employees as it refocuses the business around a global digital audience, CNBC reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter."
#14 As a result of closing their Monterey plant, 433 Perdue Farms employees will be looking for new jobs…"Perdue Farms is closing their Monterey plant, the Putnam County mayor announced Thursday night. The closure will leave 433 employees out of a job. Randy Porter, the mayor of Putnam County, says the plant has been a part of Monterey and the county’s economy for numerous years."
#15 Over the past year, Intel has laid off 3,000 workers in the state of Oregon alone…"Intel eliminated 1 in every 8 jobs across its Oregon workforce last year, reducing its local headcount by 3,000 positions as it sought to cut costs after a steep and sustained drop in revenue."
#16 Meta is one of the few companies that is doing fairly well right now, but they are conducting mass layoffs too…"Meta is planning on cutting about 5% of its workforce, with a specific focus on the company’s lowest-performing employees. A Meta spokesperson confirmed the news in an emailed statement to USA TODAY Wednesday after first being reported by Bloomberg, citing an internal memo."
#17 Kohl’s has decided to permanently shut down 27 “underperforming” stores… "Twenty-seven “underperforming” Kohl’s stores are set to shutter this spring. The locations, named late last week by Kohl’s, will permanently close their doors by April, according to the Wisconsin-based retailer."
#18 Over 200 Advance Auto Parts stores are up for sale…"More than 200 Advance Auto Parts stores, either the properties themselves or their leases, are being marketed for sale by Hilco Real Estate. Raleigh, North Carolina-based Advance Auto, an auto aftermarket parts retailer, has tapped Hilco to manage the disposition of real estate properties and leases that span 46 states. The portfolio includes retail locations and “potential redevelopment parcels situated in densely populated urban areas and along strong commercial corridors,” Hilco, which is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, said Wednesday."
#19 Approximately 500 Big Lots stores will soon be shut down for good…"The company buying Columbus-based Big Lots has identified about 500 Big Lots stores, including several in central Ohio, that it plans to close. Gordon Brothers, a Boston-based investment group, is offering to sell the stores’ leases, indicating that the stores will not remain Big Lots under new ownership.
#20 Walgreens has announced that it will be permanently closing 1,200 stores…"The thinning of Walgreens locations has been in the works. Walgreens said in October 2024 it planned to close about 1,200 underperforming stores across the U.S. as a strategy to offset declining profits resulting from low drug reimbursement rates and sluggish retail sales."
#21 In 2024, a total of 7,325 stores were closed in the United States. That was the highest number that we have seen since the early days of the pandemic…"Store closures in the U.S. last year hit the highest level since the pandemic — and even more locations are expected to shutter this year, as shoppers’ dollars increasingly go to a few industry winners, according to an analysis by Coresight Research. Major retailers, including Party City and Macy’s, closed 7,325 stores in 2024, according to the retail advisory group’s data. That’s the sharpest jump since retailers in the U.S. shuttered almost 10,000 stores in 2020, the year when the Covid pandemic began."
#22 Coresight Research is projecting that a whopping 15,000 stores will be closed in the U.S. in 2025…"Retail closings in the U.S. are on the rise. That’s according to Coresight Research, a research and advisory firm specializing in retail and technology, which predicts approximately 15,000 store closings and 5,800 store openings this year in the U.S."
#23 Cargo theft in the United States has hit a brand new all-time record high for the second year in a row…"Cargo theft hit a record high in the U.S. and Canada for the second consecutive year, and the trend is expected to continue as criminal enterprises have become more sophisticated in their methods. Verisk CargoNet’s annual analysis released this week found that cargo theft surged 27% from 2023 to 2024, hitting a record 3,625 reported incidents last year with an average value of $202,364 per theft. All told, the losses are estimated at more than $454 million."
#24 59 percent of Americans don’t even have enough money to pay for a $1,000 emergency expense…"Most Americans cannot afford a $1,000 emergency expense, with inflation and high interest rates affecting their ability to save adequately, according to a recent survey by consumer services company Bankrate. A full 59 percent of Americans aren’t in a position to use their savings “to pay for a major unexpected expense, such as $1,000 for an emergency room visit or car repair,” said a Jan. 23 report from the company."
#25 61 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 35 say that they feel “financially stressed”…"About 61% of surveyed Americans of ages 18 to 35 are financially stressed, according to a new Intuit survey. About 21% of respondents say their stress has gotten worse over the past year. Some of the biggest stressors included high cost of living, job instability and growing housing costs. Of those who identified as financially stressed, 32% said handling unexpected emergencies like medical bills, car repairs and home maintenance trigger their anxiety with cash, the report found."
As the great Mogambo Guru often said, "We're so freakin' doomed!"
And he was right...
"Epic Stupidty Of Israel Gifts A Big Win To Hezbollah!"
Full screen recommended.
KernowDamo, 1/28/25
"Epic Stupidty Of Israel Gifts A Big Win To Hezbollah!"
"It's become a tale of two ceasefires between Gaza and Lebanon but the end result for Israel has been the same for both - they lost! Right, so Israel’s determination to not leave Lebanon despite the ceasefire extension they have managed to weasel out of overseers France and the US and which has shamefully been agreed to by the Lebanese government is already blowing up in their faces. People in Lebanon are saying balls to Israel we’re going home and are making their way back to the villages from whence they came and as for Hezbollah, well, they’ve not agreed to the ceasefire extension at all. They abided by the ceasefire, they were urged to be patient by the Lebanese government, they wanted to retaliate as they spent 60 days watching Israel flout that ceasefire and for them to get an extension until the 18th February now to leave, when still they attack Lebanon and its people, well patience has now run out.
Right, so where Israel would love to project an image of having beaten Hezbollah into non existence and a message sent to the Arab world not to mess with them, between the ignominy of Netanyahu’s desperation to overturn the ceasefire in Gaza to protect himself and his position and the desperation to carry on in Lebanon for a bit longer having won an extension, what has actually been projected and is certainly being carried in a lot of foreign media and alternative media outlets here in the West and in Israel itself especially, arguably most damaging is the perception that they have lost to Hamas and Hezbollah as a result, Where Gazans now return to what is left of their homes in the north, People n Lebanon are now doing likewise, heading south back to their own towns and villages and that is despite a ceasefire extension in their case saying that Israel now have until February 18th to get out of southern Lebanon. They have said balls to Israel, they have said by their actions that we don’t fear you, get out of our country, we’re going home and Israel in typical fashion for them, leave more bodies in their wake as they beat a retreat.
For example yesterday saw cars queuing up waiting to return to the village of Khiam in Southern Lebanon, an area that has been the target of much Israeli atrocity when they were supposed to be leaving under the terms of the ceasefire, this was just one of 18 villages that ordinary Lebanese people liberated from Israeli occupation during protests on Sunday, the day the ceasefire was supposed to end, an excerpt from Drop Site news reading:
‘The protests followed Israel’s violation of a previously agreed-upon ceasefire, which required its withdrawal from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Protestors - many displaced for over a year - marched miles through war-damaged areas to confront Israeli military blockades, enduring gunfire that killed 22, including six women, and wounded 130 on Sunday."
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Meanwhile, Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles of
various kinds quite capable of turning Tel Aviv into Gaza...
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Like delicate cosmic petals, these clouds of interstellar dust and gas have blossomed 1,300 light-years away in the fertile star fields of the constellation Cepheus. Sometimes called the Iris Nebula and dutifully cataloged as NGC 7023 this is not the only nebula in the sky to evoke the imagery of flowers. Still, this remarkable image shows off the Iris Nebula's range of colors and symmetries in impressive detail. Within the Iris, dusty nebular material surrounds a hot, young star.
The dominant color of the brighter reflection nebula is blue, characteristic of dust grains reflecting starlight. Central filaments of the dusty clouds glow with a faint reddish photoluminesence as some dust grains effectively convert the star's invisible ultraviolet radiation to visible red light. Infrared observations indicate that this nebula may contain complex carbon molecules known as PAHs. The bright blue portion of the Iris Nebula is about six light-years across.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120929.html
"Simple Rules To Be Happy"
"Simple Rules To Be Happy"
by Insatiable Curiosity
"A 92-year-old man, small, very proud, dressed and clean-shaven, with his hair perfectly combed, moves into a nursing home one morning at 8:00. His 70-year-old wife has recently passed away, forcing him to leave his home. After several hours of waiting in the nursing home lobby, he smiles kindly when we tell him his room is ready.
As he walks to the elevator with his walker, I give him a description of his small room, including the drape hanging from his window as a curtain. "I like it a lot," he says with the enthusiasm of an 8-year-old boy who has just received a new puppy. "Mr. Vinto, you haven't seen the room yet, wait a minute."
"That has nothing to do with it," he says. "Happiness is something I choose in advance. Whether I like my room or not does not depend on the furniture or the decorations - it depends on how I perceive it. In my head it is already decided that I like my room. It is a decision I make every morning when I wake up. I can choose, I can spend the day in bed counting the difficulties I have with the parts of my body that do not work, or get up and thank the heavens for the ones that still work. Every day is a gift and as long as I can open my eyes, I will focus on the new day and on all the happy memories I have collected throughout my life. Old age is like a bank account. You withdraw from what you have accumulated."
So, my advice to you would be to deposit a lot of happiness in your bank account of memories. Thank you for participating in filling my bank account, where I continue to deposit. Remember these simple rules to be happy:
1. Free your heart from hate.
2. Free your head from worries.
3. Live simply.
4. Give more.
5. Expect less."
"Just Look At Us..."
"Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality"
- Michael Ellner
○
"Archimedes said, "Give me a fulcrum and I will move the Earth"; but there isn't one. It is like betting on the future of the human race - I might wish to lay a bet that the human race would destroy itself by the year 3000, but there is nowhere to place the bet. On the contrary, I am involved in the world and must try to see that it does not blow itself to pieces. I once had a terrible argument with Margaret Mead. She was holding forth one evening on the absolute horror of the atomic bomb, and how everybody should spring into action and abolish it, but she was getting so furious about it that I said to her: "You scare me because I think you are the kind of person who will push the button in order to get rid of the other people who were going to push it first." So she told me that I had no love for my future generations, that I had no responsibility for my children, and that I was a phony swami who believed in retreating from facts. But I maintained my position.
As Robert Oppenheimer said a short while before he died, "It is perfectly obvious that the whole world is going to hell. The only possible chance that it might not is that we do not attempt to prevent it from doing so." You see, many of the troubles going on in the world right now are being supervised by people with very good intentions whose attempts are to keep things in order, to clean things up, to forbid this, and to prevent that. The more we try to put everything to rights, the more we make fantastic messes. Maybe that is the way it has got to be. Maybe I should not say anything at all about the folly of trying to put things to right but simply, on the principle of Blake, let the fool persist in his folly so that he will become wise."
- Alan Watts
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