Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 5/12/24
"Travelling On A Brand New Russian Train: IVolga 4.0"
Comments here:
I'm always fascinated by what a sane, sober, civilized society can accomplish.
Unlike certain others...
So, we rise from the rubble...
Monday, May 13, 2024
Adventures With Danno, "Aldi Is Dropping Prices On 250 Products!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FgCjrSMSd4&t=78s
Adventures With Danno, 5/12/24
"Aldi Is Dropping Prices On 250 Products!"
"Aldi is cutting prices on 250 products to
help people save money on groceries!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
WCPO 9, 5/12/24
"Aldi Lowering Prices On 250 Items,
But Is There A Catch?"
"Aldi has just announced that it is cutting prices on 250 grocery items for the summer, which will mean $100 million in savings to consumers. The promotion runs from now until Labor Day at Aldi's 2,300 locations in the US."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Svetlana from Russia, 5/12/24
"Grocery Prices In Russia After Sanctions"
Comments here:
Comment: @citygirl7025: "She forgets to mention that in Russia medical care is free, hospital is free, university & schools are free. In America you only get food stamps & medicaid if you're poor, poor, poor and living on the street."
"Economic Market Snapshot 5/13/24"
"Economic Market Snapshot 5/13/24"
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Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it.
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
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Market Data Center, Live Updates:
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Comprehensive, essential truth.
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Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
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Job cuts and much more.
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Commentary, highly recommended:
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
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And now... The End Game...
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Sunday, May 12, 2024
"The Credit Card Endgame; McDonald's Ominous Sign Of A Collapsing Economy; Americans Go Broke"
Jeremiah Babe, 5/12/24
"The Credit Card Endgame; McDonald's Ominous
Sign Of A Collapsing Economy; Americans Go Broke"
Comments here:
"Credit Crisis Hits Worst Level Since Great Recession As Millions Of Americans Go Bankrupt"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 5/12/24
"Credit Crisis Hits Worst Level Since Great Recession
As Millions Of Americans Go Bankrupt"
"Bankruptcies are hitting average American families, and U.S. businesses really hard in 2024, according to data from the U.S. Courts. Higher consumer prices are making Americans take on massive loads of debt just to get by, while businesses are being impacted by decreased sales and falling profits at a time costs continue to climb. The credit crisis is now reaching levels last seen during the Great Recession, with big banks tightening their lending standards to prevent further losses and more failures in the months ahead.
In fact, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported that bank credit levels have fallen for three quarters in a row, marking the first sustained contraction since 2010. This is only the second such decline in more than half a century. The last one was witnessed during the years of 2008 and 2009, when the world was grappling with the repercussions of the Global Financial Crisis.
The extended slump in bank lending comes as many Wall Street analysts continue to project a pessimistic outlook for the U.S. economy. "Bank credit is contracting for only the 2nd time in 50 years," stressed Tilo Marotz, head of liquid assets at German insurer Continentale Versicherungsverbund. The credit contraction means that companies and consumers will have to borrow less, with higher interest rates making it more expensive to take out loans, he explained.
When it's harder to raise debt, businesses are less likely to go on with spending projects, and consumers are forced to delay big purchases, including cars and homes, which can further drag on economic growth. Record-high interest rates only add assault to injury. Still, the central bank has signaled that it'll not start loosening monetary policy until it reaches its 2% target. Until then, it will be tougher for households and businesses to access credit, experts say.
Late last month, the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey revealed that most banks in the U.S. tightened their lending standards during the past quarter. For businesses, 51% of banks tightened their lending standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and middle market firms, while 68% tightened standards for commercial real estate loans. Since February, commercial real estate loans held by banks have declined by $33 billion due to rising delinquency rates and high exposure to the sector's ongoing crisis."
Comments here:
"A Look to the Heavens"
"The most distant object easily visible to the eye is M31, the great Andromeda Galaxy some two and a half million light-years away. But without a telescope, even this immense spiral galaxy - spanning over 200,000 light years - appears as a faint, nebulous cloud in the constellation Andromeda. In contrast, details of a bright yellow nucleus and dark winding dust lanes, are revealed in this digital telescopic image.
Click image for very large size.
Narrow band image data recording emission from hydrogen atoms, shows off the reddish star-forming regions dotting gorgeous blue spiral arms and young star clusters. While even casual skygazers are now inspired by the knowledge that there are many distant galaxies like M31, astronomers seriously debated this fundamental concept in the 20th century. Were these "spiral nebulae" simply outlying components of our own Milky Way Galaxy or were they instead "island universes" - distant systems of stars comparable to the Milky Way itself? This question was central to the famous Shapley-Curtis debate of 1920, which was later resolved by observations of M31 in favor of Andromeda, island universe.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap100109.html
"Acceptance..."
"Acceptance is a crucial step forward for those who prefer the idea of living this life over simply existing within it. Accept all that you've said and what you've done, because you cannot change your past. Accept the idea of the unknown, because the future is the unknown waiting patiently to reveal itself. Accept the person you have become thus far in your journey, because you are the only person who will be there with you when you finish it. Do all of this so that you may never find yourself having to accept regret that haunts you at two a.m., leaving you sweaty and broken hearted. All you have is this minute; not this hour, or this day, or this year. Live in this minute so that you won't get stuck simply existing with your guilty past, or with nothing but anxiety for the future."
- Margaret E. Rise
"Anyway..."
"Anyway, no drug, not even alcohol, causes the fundamental ills of society. If we're looking for the source of our troubles, we shouldn't test people for drugs, we should test them for stupidity, ignorance, greed and love of power."
- P. J. O'Rourke
"How Far We Have Not Come..."
"If you want to see how far we have not come from the cave and the woods, from the lonely and dangerous days of the prairie or the plain, witness the reaction of a modern suburban family, nearly ready for bed, when the doorbell rings or the door is rattled. They will stop where they stand, or sit bolt upright in their beds, as if a streak of pure lightning has passed through the house. Eyes wide, voices fearful, they will whisper to each other, "There's someone at the door," in a way that might make you believe they have always feared and anticipated this moment - that they have spent their lives being stalked."
- Alice McDermott
The Daily "Near You?"
Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg City, Russian Federation.
Thanks for stopping by!
"Standing Up When It’s Too Late"
"Standing Up When It’s Too Late"
By JR Nyquist
"This article is a comparison between America and another great empire faced with rot in high office and a decline of the state - Rome. The writer, JR Nyquist, artfully points out it’s not the big events that sink an empire but many seemingly little ones. You could call what is happening to the U.S. “death by a thousand cuts.” Except in this story, people are not really aware how deep the cuts are and exactly who is doing the cutting. I loved this piece, and I hope you do as well." - Greg Hunter
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"There is a letter by Marcus Tullius Cicero, dated 18 December 50 B.C. This letter was written to his friend Atticus on the eve of the Roman Civil War. He wrote as follows: “The political situation alarms me deeply, and so far I have found scarcely anybody who is not for giving Caesar what he demands rather than fighting it out.” To explain the situation in brief, G. Julius Caesar had demanded the right to circumvent the Roman constitution, to break laws with impunity, to extend his command over a large army by using that army to threaten the Senate of Rome. “And why should we start standing up to him now?” asked Cicero. The next day he wrote to Atticus: “We should have stood up to him [Caesar] when he was weak, and that would have been easy. Now we have to deal with eleven legions…” Though he hated the idea of civil war, the only course, said Cicero, was to follow “the honest men or whoever may be called such, even if they plunge.”
And who were these “honest men”? “I don’t know of any,” wrote Cicero in the same letter. “There are honest individuals, but there are no honest groups.” Then he asked rhetorically if the Senate was honest, or the tax farmers, or the capitalists. None were frightened of living under an autocracy, he lamented. The capitalists, especially, “never have objected to that, so long as they were left in peace.” But civil war occurred nonetheless, because people are not free to be dishonest forever. They must admit to certain responsibilities, and oppose the advance of evil. The previous inclination to look away, to do nothing, to shrug off responsibility, proves in the end to be no more than a delaying tactic. They attempted to put off calamity, Cicero suggested, and made it all the more calamitous. That is all.
Why did the Roman Senate suddenly stand up to Caesar? What triggered their resistance? As with all free people, they began with policies of procrastination and appeasement. They hoped that the problem (i.e., Caesar) would go away. In the end, however, they discovered their mistake. Everyone still hoped for peace, though none believed it was possible. Everyone wanted to avoid war, but nobody saw a way out. Pompey stood before the Senate and gave voice to what everyone thought. “If we give Caesar the consulship, it will mean the subversion of the constitution.” In other words, it would mean the end of Rome, the end of the republic, the destruction of their country.
In a fitting preface to John Dickinson’s "Death of a Republic," George L. Haskins wrote, “that the history of Rome is the history of the world, that, as all roads lead to Rome, so all history ends or begins with Rome.” Why do free people fall into complacency? Why are threats ignored until the eleventh hour?
“Surely,” wrote Cicero at the end of Caesar’s dictatorship, “our present sufferings are all too well deserved. For had we not allowed outrages to go unpunished on all sides, it would never have been possible for a single individual to seize tyrannical power.” Caesar’s cause was not right, but evil, Cicero explained. “Mere confiscations of the property of individual citizens were far from enough to satisfy him. Whole provinces and countries succumbed to his onslaught, in one comprehensive universal catastrophe…” As for the city of Rome, Cicero lamented, “nothing is left- only the lifeless walls of houses. And even they look afraid that some further terrifying attack may be imminent. The real Rome is gone forever.”
Republics are slow to defend themselves against enemies that advance, like Caesar, under camouflage. But make no mistake, republics always defend. Groups and categories of men may not be honest or brave, but when they are finally confronted with the truth - as individuals - they see no other course. They stand up and fight. We should not be surprised, therefore, that Caesar was struck down in the Senate and killed by thrusting daggers.
It is all too true, of course. “We should have stood up to him when he was weak,” Cicero lamented. The problem with republican government is its tardiness; or rather, tardiness in the face of danger. As Machiavelli wrote, "The institutions normally used by republics are slow in functioning. No assembly or magistrate can do everything alone. In many cases, they have to consult with one another, and to reconcile their diverse views takes time. Where there is a question of remedying a situation that will not brook delay, such a procedure is dangerous."
Machiavelli concluded, therefore, “that republics in imminent danger, having no recourse to dictatorship, will always be ruined when some grave misfortune befalls them.” This is the weakness of republican government. Here is the ground on which it dies. An obvious threat, like 9/11 or Pearl Harbor is not the greatest danger. It is the subtle, camouflaged threat, that creeps up from behind. It is this camouflage that gives reluctant men a way out. “We need not fight. We need not make a fuss. There is nothing to fear.”
When this is the prevailing view, people who understand a given threat may ask: “What is to be done?” As long as we are isolated individuals, there is nothing to do. The individual may be honest with himself, but groups are not honest. What prevails overall is an optimistic dismissal. “The threat isn’t real.” This is how Hitler got so far. This is how Communism took over so many countries, and continues today under camouflage. There is nothing the individual can do that will sway the crowd. And as we are a republic, our political system operates according to the psychology of a crowd. The majority are caught up in the fads and media trends of the moment. Cynical and empty publicity characterizes much of our public discourse. But one day the country will awaken. Then, and only then, Americans will stop going along as if nothing serious hangs over them. Will it be too late? Perhaps it will be too late to save the republic. But it will not be too late to save the country."
- http://usawatchdog.com/
"We Deserve Better..."
worth it, but because no worth can be put on the incalculable, on the infinite, on life."
- Nick Mancuso
- Nick Mancuso
“The Wit and Wisdom of Will Rogers”
“The Wit and Wisdom of Will Rogers”
by Tom Purcell
"Things are mighty heated these days. Tempers are flaring and minds are closed. Here’s the solution: the wit and wisdom of Will Rogers.
“The short memory of voters is what keeps our politicians in office.”
“We’ve got the best politicians that money can buy.”
“A fool and his money are soon elected.”
Rogers spoke these words during the Great Depression, but they’re just as true today. With 24-hour news channels, our memories are shorter than ever. And in the mass-media age, the politician who can afford the most airtime frequently wins.
“Things in our country run in spite of government, not by aid of it.”
“Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing.
That was the closest our country has ever been to being even.”
“Be thankful we’re not getting all the government we’re paying for.”
Today, unfortunately, we’re getting more government than we’re paying for. We cover the difference by borrowing billions every year. As the king of the velvet-tipped barb, Rogers never intended to be mean, but to bring us to our senses. One of his favorite subjects was to remind the political class that it worked for us, not the other way around.
“When Congress makes a joke it’s a law, and when they make a law, it’s a joke.”
“You can’t hardly find a law school in the country that don’t,
through some inherent weakness, turn out a senator or congressman from time to time…
if their rating is real low, even a president.”
through some inherent weakness, turn out a senator or congressman from time to time…
if their rating is real low, even a president.”
“The more you observe politics,
the more you’ve got to admit that each party is worse than the other.”
That’s for certain. Rogers’ thinking on American foreign policy really hits home today:
“Diplomacy is the art of saying ‘Nice doggie’ until you can find a rock.”
“Diplomats are just as essential to starting a war as soldiers are for finishing it.
You take diplomacy out of war, and the thing would fall flat in a week.”
“Liberty doesn’t work as well in practice as it does in speeches.”
Rogers was born and raised on a farm in Oklahoma. His wit reflected the heart of America — the horse sense, square dealing and honesty that were the bedrock of our success:
“When a fellow ain’t got much of a mind, it don’t take him long to make it up.”
“This country is not where it is today on account of any one man.
It’s here on account of the real common sense of the Big Normal Majority.”
Franklin Roosevelt, a frequent target of Rogers’ barbs, understood how valuable Rogers’ sensibility was during the years of the Depression: “I doubt there is among us a more useful citizen than the one who holds the secret of banishing gloom… of supplanting desolation and despair with hope and courage. Above all things, Will Rogers brought his countrymen back to a sense of proportion.”
A sense of proportion is clearly what we’re lacking right now. We need to get it back quickly. What we need now more than ever is the calm, clear perspective of Will Rogers. He offered some sound advice on how we can get started: “If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?”
Excerpt from:
"7 Ways to Support Others During Tough Times"
"7 Ways to Support Others During Tough Times"
by Lexi Behrndt
"Life is fragile. Hard times are inevitable. At one time or another, we will all go through a difficult time, whether we deal with sickness, catastrophe, crisis, or relational breakdown. In those times, we need each other more than ever, but it's not just enough to be surrounded by people. We, as supporters, need to be educated in the best way to love our friends and family through tough times.
1. Silence speaks louder than words misspoken. Don't ignore them. Plain and simple. If you don't know what to say, don't avoid them. Say something. Ninety nine percent of what you could say is better than saying nothing at all. Instead, if you had a relationship with them, even if it was 10 years ago, a simple, "I'm so sorry," or "I'm thinking of you," or "I'm praying for you."
2. Don't make them ask you for help. Do they need help? Absolutely. Do they want to ask? Absolutely not. There is nothing more humbling than having to admit that you don't have your life under control, and for all the people pleasers out there, asking people for something as simple as meals or free babysitting is something we'd rather avoid. We'd rather tough it out than beg. Instead, offer your help, and offer specific ways that you would like to help.
3. Don't rush them through their pain. Saying things like "I know exactly how you feel" or telling me a story of your cousin's boyfriend's aunt's struggle and how she made it through. While we may say things with good intentions, it can also serve to minimize their issues and urge them to stifle their pain. Yes, what they are going through has probably been faced before. Yes, people do survive. Yes, things might get better. Yes, to all the things.
People need to know that the pain they feel is real and they need to move through it. They need to get a little messy and be a little more honest and feel a little more, because if they move through it too quickly or try to avoid their feelings, they might not heal just the right way. A doctor doesn't just give a sling with no cast to someone who has severely broken their arm. The doctor gives a cast. The doctor prescribes time for healing, because they know that if the healing is rushed, the bone may also not heal properly. In the same way, we need to give time for others to move through their pain rather than rush them. Instead, sit with them. Listen. Let them be honest when life is hard. Let them be angry. Let them be whatever they need to be, and resist the urge to fix them, heal them, or placate them. Just be with them.
4. Don't give unsolicited advice. Even if you have been in the situation before, support, but don't preach. This includes all cliche and trite phrases and platitudes. You may have heard them said before, but that doesn't mean they are helpful. Instead, listen, love, give. Give time, energy, resources... give yourself. Just don't give advice when they haven't asked.
5. Don't give them magic formulas. If they stand on their head, count to 30, twice and backwards, confess everything they have ever done, change their past mistakes, then this tough situation would no longer be happening to them. There is no magic formula. Life is hard and messy and it doesn't negate the goodness in this world, but it does assign blame and guilt to the situation, one of the last things that someone who is suffering needs is to be shamed. Instead, let them know you are thinking of them, praying for them, loving them, and cheering them on.
6. Don't make it about yourself. Essentially, don't complain about how your friend's tough time makes you feel. If you are close, you will be affected, but if they are closer to the problem than you, then they are not the person to whom you should vent. Instead, you should offer them support. Check on them. Love them. Let someone else support you. Instead, focus on supporting them. For more on this, do yourself a favor and read this article by Susan Silk and Barry Goldman for the LA Times.
7. Don't forget the person. With all of the above tips, don't just follow them like a black-and-white guide. The beauty in each of us is that we are unique individuals with different backgrounds, personalities, experiences, and circumstances. Instead, consider the recipient. Some people want hugs. Some people aren't touchy-feely. Some people want company. Some people prefer to sit alone. Some people want you to do things without asking, some people want you to run it past them first. Some people want someone to cry with and talk to, some people reserve that trust for a select few. Consider who they are before you act, and support them accordingly.
The bottom line? Love them selflessly and support them unconditionally, or as I remind myself... Say a little less. Love a little more. Life can be messy, but with love, we can help each other survive even the toughest times.”
- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
"Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Ave."
Full screen recommended, if you can stomach it.
"Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Ave."
"Problems with drugs and crime on Kensington Ave, Philadelphia's most dangerous street. In Philadelphia as a whole, violent crime and drug abuse are major issues. The city has a higher rate of violent crime than the national average and other similarly sized metropolitan areas. The drug overdose rate in Philadelphia is also concerning. Between 2013 and 2015, the number of drug overdose deaths in the city increased by 50%, with more than twice as many deaths from overdoses as homicides. Kensington's high crime rate and drug abuse contribute significantly to Philadelphia's problems.
Because of the high number of drugs in the neighborhood, Kensington has the third-highest drug crime rate by neighborhood in Philadelphia, at 3.57. The opioid epidemic has played a significant role in this problem, as it has in much of the rest of the country. Opioid abuse has skyrocketed in the United States over the last two decades, and Philadelphia is no exception. In addition to having a high rate of drug overdose deaths, 80% of Philadelphia's overdose deaths involved opioids, and Kensington is a significant contributor to this figure. This Philadelphia neighborhood is said to have the largest open-air heroin market on the East Coast, with many neighbors migrating to the area for heroin and other opioids. With such a high concentration of drugs in Kensington, many state and local officials have focused on the neighborhood in an attempt to address Philadelphia's problem."
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended, if you can stand it.
"Opiod Addiction (Xylazine/Fentanyl)
Is Killing Every 11 Minutes In America"
Filmed in Kensington, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended.
Bruce Springsteen, "Streets of Philadelphia"
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A comment: Shakespeare wrote in "Macbeth", "Hell is empty and all the devils are here." I once saw another quote about Hell, maybe Sartre, "This is Hell, cleverly disguised just enough to keep us from escaping." Look around, what do you see? Our society and economy, civilization itself is totally collapsing in every way, and it's doing it right now, and life as we knew it is already gone forever. The more I see, the more I think that thought about this being Hell just might be true...
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Dan, I Allegedly, "Houses are Under Water"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 5/12/24
"Houses are Under Water"
"A record number of houses are worth less than what is owed on them.
This is called being underwater. How will that get fixed? Very simply put, it will not."
Comments here:
Greg Hunter, "Huge Financial Shock Inevitable & Hitting Now"
"Huge Financial Shock Inevitable & Hitting Now"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst. Even though he has a wildly popular book on CV19 vax deaths and injuries called “Cause Unknown,” he is now turning his attention back to the economy. Dowd warns the economy can fall out of bed at any time. Dowd explains, “What’s coming up next is a credit cycle. We are going to see commercial real estate go into problem mode. There are a lot of loans that need to be rolled over in 2024 and 25. A lot of these properties are down 80%. There is huge credit risk coming. The prediction of bank failures is accurate. We are going to see, over the next 12 to 24 months, banks go belly-up. Then, they will have to get merged with bigger banks.”
What happens to the Biden economy? Dowd says, “The economy is going to take a nosedive sometime in the next 12 months. The real economy is not doing well. The only thing that has been holding up the GDP growth is government spending. We are spending $1 trillion every 100 days. That’s adding $1 trillion to the deficit. The only job creation is government jobs, and they don’t actually add to the economy. Reports are coming out now that the low-income consumer is getting absolutely hammered. McDonald’s talked about it in their most recent earnings call. So, low-income and the middle-class are getting squeezed while the rich continue to plug along.”
Dowd told me off camera that the economy could get into trouble without warning. Dowd explains, “You’ve got to look at history. In 2008 and 2009, everyone talks about the crisis, but bank failures started showing up in 2007. I suspect as we roll through time in the real economy and the money supply issues start to hit the economy, we will see more bank failures and more businesses shut down. 46% of small businesses are having problems paying their rent. There is going to come a time in the next 6 to 12 months this huge shock that we saw in the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2000 bubble where massive layoffs start to happen–it’s inevitable. This is what happens when you crank up interest rates from 0% to 5.5%. There is a lag in the real economy, and it’s hitting right now. It’s only going to intensify as time goes on.
Dowd likes gold as a core asset. He also thinks the dollar has a way to go before it tanks, but it will tank someday. Down also thinks that the CV19 bioweapon shot pushers are trying to change the narrative to admit “some deaths” happened, but the amount is small. Dowd calls BS on that, and he thinks the death and injuries are at least 33 million in the USA alone. According to Dowd’s research, the CV19 vax was a criminal enterprise that murdered and seriously harmed millions. Dowd thinks the deaths and injuries from the CV19 vax are going to get worse. Dowd thinks Johns Hopkins and the rest of the medical community are trying to change the narrative, so they don’t get blamed for pushing a massive death and disability CV19 vax program." There is much more in the 53-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the recently updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023.”
If you want to go to Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com, click here. Dowd’s work on compiling data on deaths and disabilities caused by the CV19 bioweapon/vax is all free at his website.
"Poke The Bear And Find Out: Here’s Why The West Should Finally Listen To Russia’s Warnings"
"Poke The Bear And Find Out: Here’s Why
The West Should Finally Listen To Russia’s Warnings"
by Tarik Cyril Amar
"We have been through an intense, if muffled crisis in the ongoing political-military confrontation between Russia and the West by way of Ukraine. The essence of this crisis is simple: Kiev and its Western supporters have lost the initiative in the Ukraine proxy war and may be on the verge of defeat, as high Western officials increasingly admit.
In response to this self-inflicted quandary, several important Western players have threatened further escalation. Most prominently, Great Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron publicly encouraged Kiev to use British Storm Shadow missiles to strike inside Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron continued to threaten a direct – not covert, as at present – intervention by French, that is, NATO, troops (In addition, an intriguing and much-discussed article reported that a deployment of 1,500 troops from France’s Foreign Legion had already begun. While its sources were hard to assess, its claims appeared too plausible for easy dismissal.)
Moscow, in return, issued a set of stark warnings, laying down – or highlighting – red lines. It announced drills with tactical nuclear weapons. Belarus did the same; in Minsk’s case, the weapons in question are, of course, also Russian. In addition, the British and French ambassadors received extremely straight talk about the risks their respective governments were running.
Addressing London, Moscow made clear that Kiev striking inside Russia with British missiles would expose Britain to “catastrophic consequences,” in particular, Russian retaliation against British forces anywhere. Regarding France, Moscow blasted its “belligerent” and “provocative” conduct and defied as futile French attempts to produce “strategic ambiguity.”
For now, this particular crisis seems to have abated. There are some signs that the West got the message. NATO figurehead Jens Stoltenberg, for instance, has insisted that NATO is not planning to send troops – openly, that is – into Ukraine.
Yet it would be wrong to feel too reassured. For this crisis was, at its core, a clash between, on one side, a Western problem that has by no means gone away and, on the other side, a persistent Russian policy that, it seems, all too many in the West refuse to take seriously enough.
The Western problem is that a defeat at Russia’s hands would be worse by orders of magnitude than the fiasco of the rout-like retreat from Afghanistan in 2021. Ironically, that is so because the West itself has charged its needless confrontation with Russia with the power to do unprecedented damage to NATO and the EU:
First, by insisting on treating Ukraine as a de facto almost-NATO-member, which means that by defeating it, Moscow will also defeat Washington’s key alliance. Second, by investing large and growing sums of money and quantities of supplies into this proxy war, which means that the West has weakened itself and, perhaps even more importantly, revealed its own weakness. Third, by trying to ruin both Russia’s economy and its international standing; the failure of both attempts has resulted in a stronger Russia across these two domains and, once again, revealed more limits of Western power. Fourth, by radically subordinating the EU to NATO and Washington, the geopolitical damage has been, as it were, leveraged.
In short, when the Ukraine crisis started in 2013/14 and then greatly escalated in 2022, Russia had vital security interests at stake; the West did not. By now, however, the West has made choices that have charged this conflict and its outcome with the capacity to do great, strategic harm to its own credibility, cohesion, and power: Overreach has consequences. That, briefly, is why the West is at an impasse and remains there after this crisis.
On the other side, we have that persistent policy of Moscow, namely its nuclear doctrine. Much Western commentary tends to overlook or downplay this factor, caricaturing Russia’s repeated warnings about nuclear weapons as “saber-rattling.” Yet, in reality, these warnings are consistent expressions of a policy that has been developed since the early 2000s, that is, for almost a quarter-century.
A key feature of this doctrine is that Russia explicitly retains the option of using nuclear weapons at a relatively early stage in a major conflict and before an adversary has had recourse to them. Many Western analysts have described the purpose of this posture as facilitating a strategy of “escalating to deescalate” (sometimes abbreviated as E2DE), here meaning specifically to end a conventional conflict on favorable terms through a limited use of nuclear weapons to deter the adversary from continuing.
The term “escalate to de-escalate” emerged in the West, not Russia, and this Western interpretation of Russian policy has played an important role in Western politics and debates and, thus, has its critics as well. In addition – but this is a separate question – some analysts point out that the idea of E2DE is less of any country’s national property than something inherent in the logic of nuclear strategy, that other nuclear powers have had similar policies, and that the whole idea, whoever adopts it, may not work.
In addition, Russia’s nuclear doctrine is, as you would expect, complex. And, while France’s President Emmanuel Macron has made a habit of strutting a constant inconstancy he calls “strategic ambiguity,” Moscow is capable of inflicting some genuine calculated uncertainty on its adversaries, with less bragging but more effectively. Thus, one side of its nuclear doctrine stresses that nuclear weapons could only be used if the existence of the Russian state was in danger, as has just been underlined again by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. But to misunderstand this as a promise that Moscow would only use nukes if Moscow were under siege and half of Russia’s territory or population gone already, would be foolish.
In reality, there also is room in its nuclear doctrine for treating the “unconditional territorial integrity and sovereignty” of Russia as critical thresholds. How do we know? From multiple Russian documents, which need not be cited here because Ryabkov has reminded us of this facet of Moscow’s policy, too. In the same statement in which he emphasized the criterion of “state existence.” Take that, Emmanuel.
A final point, it seems, needs highlighting as well: Russia has never restricted its option of using nuclear weapons, indeed any type of weapons, to the area of a specific local conflict, for instance, Ukraine. The opposite is the case. Moscow is explicitly reserving the right to strike beyond the confines of such a battlefield. That is something that President Vladimir Putin has made crystal clear in his address to Russia’s Federal Assembly in February of this year. It is exactly that message that Britain has received as well in the recent crisis.
Whichever way you parse it, official Russian nuclear doctrine has specific messages for potential adversaries. Moscow has consistently applied this doctrine throughout the Ukraine War and in its recent warnings – by drill and by diplomatic demarche – to its Western opponents.
But there is the rub: The West has a history of obstinately not hearing Russian messages. That is how we ended up in this war in the first place. Russia had warned the West repeatedly since, at the latest, President Vladimir Putin’s well-known speech at the Munich Security Conference in – wait for it – 2007. The last major warning came in late 2021, when Russia – with Sergey Ryabkov, incidentally, in the forefront – offered the West what turned out to be a last chance to abandon its unilateralism and specifically NATO expansion and, instead, negotiate a new security framework. The West brushed this offer off. With nuclear weapons in play, it is time that Western elites learn to, finally, listen when Russia sends a serious warning.
Saturday, May 11, 2024
"Alert! Total Systems Crash From London To New York! Everyone Is Sleeping, Buckle Up!"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/11/24
"Alert! Total Systems Crash From London To New York!
Everyone Is Sleeping, Buckle Up!"
Comments here:
Jeremiah Babe, "Americans Are Drowning In Debt And Racking Up More, Massive Debt Crisis Unavoidable"
Jeremiah Babe, 5/11/24
"Americans Are Drowning In Debt And Racking Up More,
Massive Debt Crisis Unavoidable"
Comments here:
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Who knows what evil lurks in the eyes of galaxies? The Hubble knows -- or in the case of spiral galaxy M64 - is helping to find out. Messier 64, also known as the Evil Eye or Sleeping Beauty Galaxy, may seem to have evil in its eye because all of its stars rotate in the same direction as the interstellar gas in the galaxy's central region, but in the opposite direction in the outer regions. Captured here in great detail by the Earth-orbiting Hubble Space Telescope, enormous dust clouds obscure the near-side of M64's central region, which are laced with the telltale reddish glow of hydrogen associated with star formation.
M64 lies about 17 million light years away, meaning that the light we see from it today left when the last common ancestor between humans and chimpanzees roamed the Earth. The dusty eye and bizarre rotation are likely the result of a billion-year-old merger of two different galaxies."
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