Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Chet Raymo, “Hanging On”

“Hanging On”
by Chet Raymo

“I change the desktop image on my laptop every now and then, generally when I come across a new image I like. In the last year or so you’ll remember that I wrote about Caravaggio’s “The Rest on the Flight Into Egypt” and Vermeer’s “The Milkmaid.” Live with an image for a while and it’s inevitable that you learn something from it. Here is the painting I’ve had as my desktop in recent weeks, Winslow Homer’s “Snap the Whip”, 1872, one of America’s sentimental favorites.

A simpler, more innocent time. Boys at recess, barefoot in the grass. Hand-me-down clothes. Autumn wildflowers, trees turning to red and gold. A fumbling Ulysses S. Grant is in the White House, the country is at peace after a horrendous civil war, and the Panic of 1873 and subsequent depression is still in the offing. Anyway, all of that political and economic stuff is a bit of a pother and far away. The sun is high in the sky, there’s an apple in the pocket, and only the oldest boy is thinking yet about the eternal mystery that is girls.

Yes, a lovely sentimental anecdote to the busy rancor of our own time, the incessant noise of the television, the attack ads, the news of war. How blissful to be twelve years old again, fit and healthy with the grass between your toes. Never mind that these boys had a life expectancy at birth of about 40 years, and that many of them had probably already lost a sibling or parent; when the sun’s out, and it’s recess, and you’ve got eight pals to play with…

But that’s not why I like the painting. I love the way the arc of the whip reflects the curve of the hill. The vanishing point of the red schoolhouse and three white shirts – everything converges on the two adults in the distance, the grown-up world that inevitably awaits.

Between the three boys who anchor the whip and the six who resist the centrifugal force that breaks the chain is the schoolhouse, the open door and window bracketing the anchor’s grip. Maybe it’s because I was a teacher all my life, but I like to think that the “message” of the painting has to do with education, with what goes on when the boys and girls are called back inside by the teacher’s bell – the glue that holds a civil society together when the whiplash of events threatens to tear us apart. Not indoctrination. Rather, reading, ‘riting and ‘rithmetic, the basic skills that enable an individual to explore the world creatively. History, geography and science, with their lessons of diversity, tolerance and respect for empirical fact. The ameliorating influence of poetry and art. And one of these boys, maybe the oldest in the center, will become a teacher himself, maintaining an unbroken chain of accumulated knowledge that anchors us to the past and propels us together into a mutually supportive and secure future.”

The Daily "Near You?

Pensacola, Florida, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"A Sad Fact..."

"A sad fact, of course, about adult life is that you see the very things you'll never adapt to coming toward you on the horizon. You see them as the problems they are, you worry like hell about them, you make provisions, take precautions, fashion adjustments; you tell yourself you'll have to change your way of doing things. Only you don't. You can't. Somehow it's already too late. And maybe it's even worse than that: maybe the thing you see coming from far away is not the real thing, the thing that scares you, but its aftermath. And what you've feared will happen has already taken place. This is similar in spirit to the realization that all the great new advances of medical science will have no benefit for us at all, thought we cheer them on, hope a vaccine might be ready in time, think things could still get better. Only it's too late there too. And in that very way our life gets over before we know it. We miss it. And like the poet said: The ways we miss our lives are life."
- Richard Ford

"A $250 Million War Game and Its Shocking Outcome"

"A $250 Million War Game and Its Shocking Outcome"
by Nick Giambruno

"At a cost of $250 million, Millennium Challenge 2002 was the largest and most expensive war game in Pentagon history. With over 13,500 participants, the US government took over two years to design it. The exercise pitted Iran against the US military. Washington intended to show how the US military could defeat Iran with ease.

Paul Van Riper, a three-star general and 41-year veteran of the Marine Corps, led Iranian forces in the war game. His mission was to take on the full force of the US military, led by an aircraft carrier battle group and a large amphibious landing force in the Persian Gulf. The results shocked everyone…

Van Riper waited for the US Navy to pass through the shallow and narrow Strait of Hormuz, which made them sitting ducks for Iran’s unconventional and asymmetric warfare techniques. The idea is to level the playing field against a superior enemy with swarms of explosive-laden suicide speedboats, low-flying planes carrying anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles, among other low-cost but highly effective measures. In minutes, Van Riper emerged victorious over his superior opponent and sank all 19 ships. Had it been real life, 20,000 US sailors and marines would have died.

Millennium Challenge 2002 was a complete disaster for the Pentagon, which had spent a quarter of a billion dollars to set up the extensive war game. It produced the exact opposite outcome they wanted. So what did the Pentagon do with these humbling results? Like a child playing a video game, they hit the reset button. They then rigged and scripted the game so that the US was guaranteed to win.

After realizing the integrity of the war game had been compromised, a disgusted Van Riper walked out mid-game. He then said: "Nothing was learned from this. And a culture not willing to think hard and test itself does not augur well for the future."

The main lesson of Millennium Challenge 2002 is that aircraft carriers - the biggest and most expensive ships ever built - wouldn’t last a single day in combat against even a regional power like Iran. Russia and China would have an even easier time dispatching them. They are overpriced toys. That means the US has wasted untold trillions on military hardware that could prove to be worthless in a serious conflict. Nonetheless, the US government still parades aircraft carriers around the world from time to time to try to intimidate its enemies. However, it’s a flawed strategy prone to catastrophic results if someone calls their bluff.

While Millennium Challenge 2002 occurred more than 20 years ago, it is of paramount importance today. Iran has substantially improved its asymmetric and unconventional warfare capabilities. It’s doubtful the US military would fare much better today than 20 years ago. In short, war with Iran today could be even more disastrous than the Millennium Challenge 2002 simulation.

Unfortunately, war with Iran is an increasingly probable outcome as tensions in the Middle East are at their highest point in generations and are trending higher. Previously, I lived in Beirut, Lebanon, for several years while working for an investment bank. The experience was effectively an advanced training course in Middle East geopolitics. Today, it helps me see the big picture in the region… and unfortunately, it isn’t pretty. I think the next big war in the Middle East is coming soon and could be the biggest one ever. It will focus on Iran."

"What Are The Facts?"

“What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the un-guessable “verdict of history” – what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!” - Robert A. Heinlein

“It seems to me what is called for is an exquisite balance between two conflicting needs: the most skeptical scrutiny of all hypotheses that are served up to us and at the same time a great openness to new ideas. If you are only skeptical, then no new ideas make it through to you. On the other hand, if you are open to the point of gullibility and have not an ounce of skeptical sense in you, then you cannot distinguish the useful ideas from the worthless ones.”
- Carl Sagan

And always remember...
"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains,
however improbable, must be the truth."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "Sherlock Holmes"

Hey, who lied and told you any of this was easy?

"The West That Was," Part 2

Full screen recommended.
"The West That Was," Part 2
by Paul Rosenberg

America, 1910 - "1910 was well before my own time, of course, but I knew at least ten people who lived through it as adults, and discussed the era at some length with one of them, my great uncle Dave. And so this is an era I feel I can still reach out and touch.

One of the more interesting things about this era regards our separation from it. The great event that forged this divide was World War I, which is greatly under-appreciated in modern discourse. Schools cover World War II in great depth, but run through World War I fairly quickly. World War I, however – “The Great War” – changed human affairs and human consciousness far more than World War II did. The world before and the world afterward were very different places.

Bear in mind, however, that in 1910, people lived very similarly to the way we do. They (particularly in the cities) lived in houses with central heating, refrigerated their food, and ate the same foods we eat today. They had newspapers, affordable and rapid transportation, access to medical care, telegrams (delivery in an hour or two was common) and so on. Even movies and radio were starting to spread. Cars were arriving, as were electricity and telephones. Airplanes were starting to appear in the skies. Railroads went almost everywhere.

To give you a feel for daily life in 1910, here is a list of family expenses kept during November of that year: According to US News Money, the Cleveland Foundation calculated a family budget for 1910 that included:

• Food: $28 per month.
• Utilities: $4 per month, including fuel, light, and ice for the ice box.
• Insurance: $1, presumably life insurance.
• Streetcars: $1.50 per month.
• Clothing: $9 per month.
• General household expenses: $1 per month, which is equivalent to $23.38 today.
• In 1910, cars cost an average of $2,214, and cars built in the 1910s lasted about 5–7 years. In 1915, a home cost about $3,200, which is equivalent to $75,600 in 2015 dollars. 

A major characteristic of this world was that people tended to be significantly more confident. And the primary reason for that was that their world was comprehensible. More or less all the factors of their daily lives were understandable. Even their scientific discoveries were understandable, provided that one was willing to get the necessary books and read them. It’s telling that television, just a few years later, was invented by a farm boy (Philo T. Farnsworth), whose knowledge came largely from reading magazines.

There is a critical difference between the person who sees the world as comprehensible and the person who does not:Understanding the world, we tend to make plans to accomplish our goals, and then pursue them, confident that we can (or at least are likely to) reach those goals. Feeling overcome by a world we cannot understand or rely upon, we hunker down in place. Not knowing what may or may not work, we pull back our horizons, hold on to whatever we do have and refuse to let go, even when letting go may get us something better. Those who can comprehend the world believe they can improve it, and so they insert their will into it.

What It Was Like: I’ve always liked the way Bill Buckler described this era in The Privateer: "There was a golden world which developed between 1815 and 1914. Over that century and with the interruptions of a few short wars a general peace had been the main feature. An immense optimism covered the world, economically underpinned by the Classical Gold Standard. Gold coinage, though often of different weights in different countries, WAS money. The entire western world was a form of payments union in the sense that Gold was money.

Governments were small; tiny compared to today. What taxes existed were almost imperceptible. The US had no income tax. Privacy, property and contracts were sacrosanct.

As I’ll often say, the people of this era often behaved foolishly, but they made their errors in a different and better context than we make ours in today. And the world between about 1815 and World War I was a type of golden age. And in fact, the technical wonders we enjoy would have been impossible without these people bringing them forward to us.

Between 1919 and 1935 or so, a great deal of human life was arranged in response to World War I and its pointless horrors. And the fact is that the West, in general, lost its confidence in this era. Sensitive commentators at the time (such as Virginia Wolfe) made note of it, and we see it from a number of people who reminisced about it. For example, economist Friedrich Hayek recalled this:

It used to be the boast of free men that, so long as they kept within the bounds of the known law, there was no need to ask anybody’s permission or to obey anybody’s orders. It is doubtful whether any of us can make this claim today. Hayek was not wrong about this. The law was simple in 1910 (legislation hadn’t yet overtaken the common law), and even beyond the rules you knew, law’s universal standard was “the reasonable man.” So long as you were reasonable, and your actions defensible with reason, you really didn’t have to worry very much about the law.

And regardless of the Victorian image of the time, there were many independent movements toward radical progress. Author Leonard Woolf wrote about the movement he was involved with this way: "We were not part of a negative movement of destruction against the past: We were out to construct something new; we were in the van of builders of a new society which should be free, rational, civilized, pursuing truth and beauty. It was all tremendously exhilarating."

Nor were women entirely silent. Here is a passage from Mary Wollstonecraft: "To be a good mother - a woman must have sense, and that independence of mind which few women possess who are taught to depend entirely on their husbands. Meek wives are, in general, foolish mothers; wanting their children to love them best, and take their part, in secret, against the father, who is held up as a scarecrow." I often think of this time as The Near Miss of 1900. I’m convinced that if somehow that moment had been continued, we’d be living far better and more happily than we are.

As I’ve noted in other places, a major source of our world’s confusion arises from our money. If that sounds odd, please bear in mind that money is the primary tool of our survival, being half of every transaction for food, housing and so on.

In 1910, new money had to be pulled from the ground with difficulty. And that difficulty kept it honest. It couldn’t be created by decree, which changed the tone of everything from taxes to stocks and bonds. More importantly, it kept the working man in a position of importance.

The next time you go through an old city, look at the grand homes that were built in this era, then consider this: Those homes were built by grocers, mechanics, longshoremen and bakers. As a result, working people carried more dignity than they have since. Hard work and prudence paid in those days, and there was no tax on income to siphon away one’s surplus. The hard-workers of this era made loans rather than begging for them. This informed not only their attitudes regarding themselves, but the mating strategies of the young.

In 1910, the young man went out to earn his “nest egg,” and thereby convinced the girl to marry him. There were myriad exceptions and failures, of course, but this was the standard model and could not have stood if it had been impossible. And, in fact, it was ridiculed and expelled a decade or two later, once the war and the income tax changed conditions so that very few could rise to it.

In Part One of this series we said that the Americans of 1960 still believed in their culture. These people certainly shared in that, but they believed in themselves in a deeper way than the Americans of 1960 did, and certainly far more than most people believe in themselves today."

Part 1:

"How It Really Is"

Oh how it really is, lol...

Adventures With Danno, "Massive Price Increases At Meijer!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 4/23/24
"Massive Price Increases At Meijer!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Meijer and are noticing some massive price increases on groceries and other products. It continues to get rough out here as many families continue to struggle to put food on the table!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Different Russia, 4/23/24
"2 Big Bags of Food for $ 18!
 Food Prices in Russia Today"
Comments here:

"Mass Layoffs Are About To Tear Millions Of Families Apart"

Full screen recommended.
The Economic Ninja, 4/23/24
"Mass Layoffs Are About To Tear Millions Of Families Apart"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "Banking Crisis 2024 - No Cash and No ATMs"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 4/23/24
"Banking Crisis 2024 - No Cash and No ATMs"
"Dive into "The Ultimate Cash Crisis: What You MUST Know!" People are adapting to life without cash, banks and ATMs. Discover the innovative solutions people are adopting and why keeping cash on hand is more crucial than ever! Not only are bank branches closing, but they’re absolutely limiting the amount of cash that people can take out of the bank. We are going to a cashless society."
Comments here:

"Alert! Don't Panic But This Nuclear Leak Is Serious; Russia Threatens US Planes; End Game Is Close"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 4/22/24
"Alert! Don't Panic But This Nuclear Leak Is Serious;
 Russia Threatens US Planes; End Game Is Close"
Comments here:

Monday, April 22, 2024

MUST VIEW! "Mass Graves in Gaza Show Israelis Are Worse Than Nazis"

Richard Medhurst, 4/22/24
"Mass Graves in Gaza Show 
Israelis Are Worse Than Nazis"
Comments here:

Full screen recommended.
"The One Video Israel Really
 Doesn't Want You To See"
Comments here:

Jeremiah Babe, "Markets Up Today As The Economy Crashes, Millions Can't Pay Their Bills"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/22/24
"Markets Up Today As The Economy Crashes,
 Millions Can't Pay Their Bills"
"Markets up today ignoring war, debt, massive bubbles a commercial real estate crisis, people living pay check to pay check these markets are a complete rigged fantasy that are guaranteed to collapse."
Comments here:

"A 1960s Musical Interlude"

Mason Williams, "Classical Gas" (1968)
o
Full screen recommended.
Paul Mauriat, "Love is Blue" (1968)
o
Jefferson Airplane, "White Rabbit" (1967)

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Large, dusty, spiral galaxy NGC 4945 is seen edge-on near the center of this rich telescopic image. The field of view spans nearly 2 degrees, or about 4 times the width of the Full Moon, toward the expansive southern constellation Centaurus.
About 13 million light-years distant, NGC 4945 is almost the size of our own Milky Way Galaxy. But X-ray and infrared observations reveal even more high energy emission and star formation in the core of NGC 4945. The other prominent galaxy in the field, NGC 4976, is an elliptical galaxy. Left of center, NGC 4976 is much farther away, at a distance of about 35 million light-years, and not physically associated with NGC 4945.”

"The Only Animal..."

"Man is the only animal that laughs and weeps; for he is the only animal that is
struck with the difference between what things are, and what they ought to be."
- William Hazlitt

"The Poet: Mary Oliver, "There Is Time Left"

"There Is Time Left"

"Well, there is time left –
fields everywhere invite you into them.
And who will care, who will chide you if you wander away
from wherever you are, to look for your soul?
Quickly, then, get up, put on your coat, leave your desk!
To put one's foot into the door of the grass, which is
the mystery, which is death as well as life,
and not be afraid!
To set one's foot in the door of death,
and be overcome with amazement!”

~ Mary Oliver

"There Comes A Point..."

 

The Daily "Near You?"

Port-of-Spain, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Thanks for stopping by!

"High Alert! Putin Rushed To Kremlin For Emergency Meeting Over NATO"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 4/22/24
"High Alert! Putin Rushed To Kremlin
 For Emergency Meeting Over NATO"
"Sources tell Redacted that Russian President Putin was rushed to the Kremlin for an emergency war meeting in the middle of the night. What's going on? Are US troops launching a surprise attack on Odessa? Col. Douglas MacGregor joins Redacted with the latest."
Comments here:

Canadian Prepper, "'Civil War': Secret Meaning Predicts What's Coming!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 4/22/24
"'Civil War': 
Secret Meaning Predicts What's Coming!"
Comments here:

"Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt"

"Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt"
by Jeff Thomas

"Some people are more observant than others. Some are more capable of thinking outside the box than others. Whether this is by nature or nurture is a moot point. When we are children, we tend to look upon the world in all its wonder. We are amazed at what exists and we absorb it like a sponge. Then, when we are in our teens, we begin our second wave of discovery. We begin to pay more attention to the things that we find confusing; we become absorbed in issues like world hunger, warfare and political strife. These situations seem senseless and we repeatedly ask, "Why should these things be?"

Typically, in our twenties, we have not yet found any solid answers and our mood turns from interest to anger. We tend to gravitate toward liberal philosophy, as liberal philosophy tells us what we would most like to hear; that these terrible things should not exist and that we should take every step available to us to end the injustices of the world – at whatever cost to ourselves and others.

Most of us continue in this approach for several years, but in our thirties we begin to recognize that, no matter how many steps are taken in this effort, the problems seem to be self-renewing and, at that point, a split occurs in philosophical outlook. Many people cease to grow at this point, as they do not want to live in a world where it is necessary to accept that suffering of one type or another is perennial. They may become increasingly stubborn in this view and, from this point on in life, tend to dig in their heels increasingly and fail to continue to grow in their understanding of the world.

However, there are others who decide that, no matter how unpleasant reality is, we will continue our pursuit of it. For those of us who do follow this (admittedly less pleasant) path, the true nature of life begins to unfold. Somewhere in our forties, it dawns on us that our thinking is no longer liberal. We may well find that our former liberal friends may treat us like traitors to the cause and we may even become pariahs to them. (Churchill said, "If you are not a liberal when you are twenty, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative when you are forty, you have no brain." A lot of truth in that.)

Somewhere in our fifties, if we have remained diligent in our study of mankind, it all begins to gel and we begin to have a real grasp of the interrelationship of business, politics, the haves and have-nots, the whole ball of wax. We begin to recognize that there will always be those who are inspired leaders, but that there will also be those who are uninspired usurpers. There will always be those who are eager to be producers and, likewise, there will always be those who would prefer merely to consume.

From this point on in our lives, we increasingly recognize that this state of affairs is perennial, that human nature will assure that the same verve that existed to create the Roman Empire exists today, just as the same waste and decadence that destroyed it also exists today.

When I was in High School, I read George Orwell’s "Animal Farm". I remember how impressed I was that he had set his novel in a farmyard and that his characters were farm animals. Orwell had consciously simplified an otherwise confusing world by boiling it down to the smallest format he could think of. In that book, when the animals gained their freedom from the "oppression" of the farmer, they were filled with high-mindedness. In order to forever remind them of what they stood for, they painted on the barn, "All animals are created equal."

The greatest revelation of the book, for me, was when the pigs, who had become the government, altered the sign under cover of darkness to say, "All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others." I remember thinking, "This is where the rot sets in. I must never forget this. For the rest of my life, I will need to be watching for this change in leadership approach."

Unfortunately, it is a fact that the majority of people truly do not want to be bothered with this effort of continual reassessment of the governmental situation. In every country, in every era, the majority genuinely prefer leaders who make big promises, regardless of whether the promises will ever be delivered upon. Every country in every era has its "chicken in every pot" slogan to hang on to.

In the late eighteenth century, America became heated up over the "oppression" of King George (whose taxation, incidentally, was far lower that today’s taxes) and, eventually, openly rebelled. It has often been said by historians that, if there was a specific moment at which the move to become the United States truly began, it was when Patrick Henry stated in the House of Burgesses, "Give me Liberty or give me death."

As we all know, the American people gained their independence and, after a fair bit of stumbling, set forth on a course of prosperity, based upon excellent natural resources and an excellent work ethic. In the middle of the nineteenth century, a war was fought, not over slavery, but over who would control the economy of the future – the northern industrialists or the southern plantation owners. The north won and the latter half of the nineteenth century saw the greatest expansion the world had ever seen. In this period, America settled the entire continent and dramatically sped up the pace of the industrial revolution. This was done without income tax or a Federal Reserve, confirming that these factors are not necessary for progress and prosperity.

Then in 1913, the pigs rewrote the sign on the barn.

A decade later, American bankers (with the support of the government) put into motion the largest scam ever to be perpetrated upon Americans. It was an unqualified success, with an unfortunate byproduct being the Great Depression. In 1999, the American bankers (again with the support of the government) put into place an almost identical scam, which has proven to be an even bigger success and (I believe) will ultimately result in an even more devastating depression.

In 1999, The Democratic US president, with the support of the Republican US Congress, repealed the Glass Steagall Act, which would allow the scam of the 1920’s to be repeated, only on a grander scale. The "pigs", in effect, rewrote Patrick Henry’s inspiring statement. From 1999 on, the slogan has, effectively, been, "Give me liberty or give me debt," and the governments, both democratic and republican, have encouraged and provided the latter.

On any given day, we can turn on our televisions and watch the news programs, which continually feature Republican political advisors and Democratic political advisors argue with each other over whether all the damage that has been done was done by the other side. Neither side gives an inch to the other. Americans watch this game of ping pong endlessly play out with no conclusion, yet, at election time, they must make a choice.

Most Americans today treat the two political parties the way they would treat sports teams. Just as no self-respecting sports fan would own both a Yankees and a Red Sox hat, so every American supports one political team or the other, and along the way, that support becomes so all-encompassing that there is no room for doubt. Blind conviction becomes the norm.

In 1787, Alexander Tyler, an Englishman, commented on the new US experiment as a democracy. He said, "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship." His prediction has proven astonishingly accurate, with the last step yet to be played out.

The debt that crippled Rome two thousand years ago, and that crippled every major power since that time, is now crippling the US. Today, all Americans are aware of the problem, and almost all are hoping that, somehow, the problem will go away. It will not. In every country, in every era, it is not in the interests of the "pigs" to fix the problem. It is in their interest to allow the situation to play itself out until it ultimately crashes. Tyler was extraordinarily astute. He understood that all great powers have a shelf life. They also have a process by which they are created, then thrive, then become corrupted, then decline, then fall into ruin. This process is as perennial as the grass.

The pundits will continue to rail with righteous indignation on television. The two political sports teams will continue to kick and gouge each other, but the outcome of the game is already cast in stone.

So, is this the end of the world as we know it? Yes and no. It is not the end of the world, just the end of the world as we know it. Whenever the leading power in the world falls, others are already in the wings, rising. And so it is today. Americans who are alive today have never known a situation in which their country was not the top dog in the world, and so it is hard to imagine a different world. For those who are not American and who do not reside in the US, it is easier to see a truer picture. With the collapse of the US (and Europe), there is still a very big world out there, waiting in the wings. Some second- and third-world countries are, admittedly, doing badly. However, others are getting by nicely. And still others are thriving.

Yes, there is a bright future ahead, but, sadly, not in America; at least not for many years. Those who were described in the first paragraph of this article as being more observant are already looking away from America into the future. For the first time since the eighteenth century, those who are pursuing the bright future are walking away from America, not toward it."

"It's A Mess, Ain't It?"

Deputy Wendell: "It's a mess, ain't it Sheriff?"
Sheriff Ed Tom Bell: "Well, if it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here."
- "No Country For Old Men"

Oh, the mess is here alright...and you ain't seen nothin' yet...
Brace for impact.

"World War III Prelude: The Middle East"

Full screen recommended.
OpenmindedThinker Show, 4/22/24
"Israel Panics! Dozens Of Russian Warplanes 
Arrive In Iran; Putin Seeks Revenge!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Douglas Macgregor, 4/22/24
"Urgent: Nuclear Risks In Israel-Iran 
War Have Terrible Consequences"
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Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter,4/22/24
"Huge Escalation Is About To Happen In 
Middle East After US Sends $26B To Israel"
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"How It Really Is"

 

Adventures With Danno, "Outrageous Price Increases At Aldi! This Is Unbelievable!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 4/22/24
"Outrageous Price Increases At Aldi! This Is Unbelievable!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Aldi and are noticing some massive price increases on groceries and other products. It continues to get rough out here as many families continue to struggle to put food on the table!"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "We Are In A Silent Depression"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 4/22/24
"We Are In A Silent Depression"
"Regardless of what we’re being told, you have to look at all the businesses and the facts around us. We are in a silent depression. There are massive amounts of layoffs. People are closing at a pace. We are seeing the inability for people to purchase real estate and to even buy household goods. Everyone has been affected by this and it’s only getting worse."
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Gregory Mannarino, "The Next Phase (We Lose); Mass Currency Devaluation And Rapidly Expanding War"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/22/24
"The Next Phase (We Lose); 
Mass Currency Devaluation And Rapidly Expanding War"
Comments here:

Bill Bonner, "The Wealth of a Nation"

"The Wealth of a Nation"
Thanks to Fed interest rate policy, stocks and bonds both hit epic highs - 
and the rich got richer than ever...GDP growth actually slowed, 
inflation increased, and we are left with $34.6 in debt.
by Bill Bonner

Dublin, Ireland - "Last week we looked at the Primary Trend... and wondered how Joe Biden or Donald Trump would make it worse. That is, after all, what the feds do. Markets don’t necessarily deliver what people want; but they always give them what they deserve. Left alone, markets provide products, services, timewasters... drugs, alcohol... whatever people willingly pay for. When the feds interfere - subsidizing, penalizing, prohibiting - people get less of what they want... more of what the feds want. They also usually get a lot of what nobody wants. Federal programs almost always come with fleas... they fail to provide the benefits promised... and almost always result in unwelcome consequences.

As we have seen, the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates drove the Primary Trend of 1980-2020 to extreme levels. One of the frequent promises of politicians, for example, is to lessen ‘inequality.’ Barack Obama said it was his top priority. But thanks to Fed interest rate policy, stocks and bonds both hit epic highs - and the rich got richer than ever. Meanwhile, GDP growth actually slowed... inflation increased... and we are left with $34.6 trillion worth of debt that can’t be paid.

And now, constrained by inflation, the feds cannot resuscitate the 1980-2021 boom. Instead, everything has turned around. Stocks and bonds go down... and the feds reinforce the new Primary Trend with higher interest rates and outsized deficits. And just as their policies resulted in extreme wealth (at least for some) during the last boom, their new policies are now likely to bring extreme poverty (perhaps for many) as the new Primary Trend runs its course.

Crazy Janet: But federal interference doesn’t stop with just wrongheaded monetary and fiscal policies. In today’s episode of Bonner Private Research we look at trade policies. Check this out from the Irish Independent: "Biden calls for tariffs on Chinese steel." "The US president has called for a tripling of American tariffs on steel imported from China... in order to protect producers from a flood of cheap imports. His announcement was made in an address to steelworkers in the battleground state of Pennsylvania..likely to play a pivotal role in deciding November’s election."

And this from CNN: "House lawmakers have once again passed legislation that could lead to a nationwide TikTok ban, renewing a massive threat to the company’s US operations. The move could fast-track a proposal TikTok has been fighting against for weeks. If the House’s gambit succeeds, TikTok could be forced to find a new owner or be banned from the United States entirely." Hey foreigners... got a new product? Lower prices? Better technology? Well... keep it to yourselves!

Mr. Biden’s announcement comes on the heels of his Treasury Secretary’s visit to China the week before. Ms. Yellen complained about ‘overcapacity’ in China. The point was almost immediately echoed by Lael Brainard, formerly with the Fed, now with the White House. She said the administration was protecting the nation from “unfair exports” coming from “China’s industrial overcapacity.” We have no idea what an ‘unfair export’ is. It hardly matters, since consumers can decide for themselves whose products to boycott and whose to purchase. But Biden’s opponent, Donald Trump, is fully onboard with tariffs too. CNN:

When former President Donald Trump was in the White House, he proudly referred to himself as a “TariffMan” - and he has no intention of retiring that self-proclaimed title if reelected. Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of imposing a 10% tariff on every good coming into the US, as well as a tariff upward of 60% all Chinese imports if he regains the presidency…During a campaign rally, he promised a “100% tariff” on cars made outside the US and warned of a “bloodbath” for the American auto industry if he doesn’t get reelected.

Mr. Biden (81 years old) panders to voters in Pennsylvania. Mr. Trump (soon to be 78) actually seems to believe that restraining trade would make Americans better off. There’s a life cycle pattern that makes sense of it. When a nation is young and vigorous, it is eager to compete. When it is old and tired, it grows fearful. Every sidewalk is covered in ice. Some nations are military threats. Others challenge its commercial success. Many have strange new ideas, innovative new weapons and new ways of doing things. Everyday brings something new; if only we could stop tomorrow!

Pineapples in Maine: Since the days of Adam Smith it has been obvious that trade is the key to economic success. What would happen if Alabama put a 100% tariff on cars imported from Michigan? Suppose you live in Maine and decide not to eat pineapples grown out-of-state? What if competition in surgery were banned... so that rather than seek out the best surgeon for your brain operation... from, say, the Mayo Clinic or Johns Hopkins... you had to rely on the local vet?

Material progress comes from technology and the division of labor. The bricklayer can lay bricks better than the baker. The baker, on the other hand, knows how to make a pain au raisin. They exchange output. Both are better off.

In primitive societies, people have to do everything for themselves. They hunt their own food. They build their own shelters and stitch their own clothes. In a rich society, they specialize. The typical person today sits in front of a computer... calls a physiotherapist to help straighten his back and orders food via DoorDash. He neither plants nor hunts. But he eats anyway. He uses a computer, but has no idea how it works. He takes a hot shower and drives a car - God forbid that they don’t work. His whole standard of living relies on a vast network of specialized knowledge, from all over the world. Anything the feds do to interfere with these voluntary exchanges will make people poorer. But isn’t that the point?

Adam Smith popularized the idea that, looking out for themselves, people actually made things better for others. It was as if they were guided by a ‘hidden hand.’ Is it possible that the feds are also guided by a ‘hidden hand?’ In trying to make things better for themselves, they invariably make them worse for everyone else. And by trying to force the markets to do their bidding, they inevitably exaggerate the trends they were trying to stop. Tomorrow, we’ll look at America’s biggest competitor... China. Stay tuned."

Jim Kunstler, "The Bad Faith Olympics"

"The Bad Faith Olympics"
by Jim Kunstler

“This is the weirdest era in human history. By far. Nothing else even comes close. Billionaires trying to kill everyone. Civil society unable to form a coherent thought. Institutions lie in smoldering ruins. Poisons handed out like candy. We are Neanderthals with iPhones.” 
- Dr. Toby Rogers

"Did it warm your heart to see all those blue and yellow Ukrainian flags waved by our elected officials in Congress Saturday night with the passage of the $60-plus-billion aid bill to the Palookaville of Europe? You realize, don’t you, that the tiny fraction of that hypothetical “money” - from our country’s empty treasury - that ever reaches Ukraine will rebound on the instant into Mr. Zelensky’s Cayman Islands bank account. The rest of the dough enters the recursive shell-game between US weapons-makers and the very hometown folks in Congress waving those blue and yellow flags, who will receive great greasy gobs of fresh “campaign donations” from the grateful bomb and missile producers. No wonder they’re cheering.

What the $60-plus-billion won’t do is provide any fresh arms and equipment to Ukraine’s sad-sack army soon enough to prevent Russia from bringing this cruel, stupid, and unnecessary war, which we started, to a close. Yes, we started it, not Russia, in 2014 with our Intel blob overthrowing elected President Viktor Yanukovych in the so-called “Maidan Revolution of Dignity” (what Wikipedia calls it). And for what reason? To jam Ukraine into NATO as a prelude to “weakening” Russia sufficient to bust it up and gain control over Russian oil, ores, and grain.

Yes, that was actually the neocon’s game, equal parts megalomania and hubris, a fiasco as strategically ill-fated as Hitler’s push to gain control of Russia’s oil fields via Stalingrad in 1942-3. With failure and humiliation looming in Ukraine, the blob’s objective for now, in theory, is the vain hope of prolonging the hostilities just long enough to get its hologram president, “Joe Biden” re-elected, so that said blob can continue its amoebic digestion of what’s left uneaten by it in our sore-beset republic. You’ve got to wonder, of course, what this blob thinks will remain to rule over when it’s done gobbling up everything and jailing everyone from sea to shining sea who objects.

You tell me what conceivable way Ukraine can prevail in this proxy war now without just tripping off the civilization-ending nuke exchange? America does not have enough tactical missiles and artillery shells at hand to send over there. What we did have is gone. NATO never had much to begin with. Ukraine has run out of available cannon-fodder to conscript from its dwindling population. Despite Mr. Macron’s recent bluster, NATO can’t raise a credible army, or even agree on which country would send what. Nobody is riding to the rescue. Instead, Russia is fortifying its home-grown armaments industry and its military while systematically turning off the electricity all over Ukraine by blowing up the power stations. Very soon, Ukraine will be reduced to medieval living conditions - no lights, no phones, no Internet, no shopping, no ability to conduct modern warfare. End...of...story.

This is apt to play out much faster than America’s blob-controlled news media will be able to lie about. I’d guess it can be functionally over before mid-summer. The result will be yet another humiliation on the “Joe Biden” scorecard. When it’s over, you can be sure the Russians will abstain from an end-zone dance so as not to provoke America’s genius-losers into some final petty grand act of requital. Russia will just soberly declare what is self-evident: that for centuries Ukraine has been in its sphere-of-influence, as Mexico is in ours, and that they have reestablished the natural order of things in that corner of the world.

After that, America and the rest of Western Civ can get on with the collapse of their financial system and very likely a period of profound political and economic chaos in which governments fall, nations change boundaries and shapes, and their populations suffer dramatically from an imploded standard of living. That process may actually play out somewhat slower than the end of the Ukraine war over the coming years. It will look like a combined game of musical chairs and hot potato, with the opportunities to get a seat steadily fading, and the losers left holding things they can’t handle.

In the meantime, our country - remember it, the USA, when it had its once-enviable mojo working? - is busy being insane and finding sixty ways to Sunday to commit suicide. How do you suppose the Democratic Party will actually pretend to put up “Joe Biden” for re-election when the Ukraine failure is completed? Answer: they can’t. This dumbshow of the old gaffer hiding at his beach house and avoiding direct engagement with reality is also drawing to a close. Instead of calling “a lid” on “JB’s” activities, some humid morning in the swamp his handlers will call in “a medical alert” instead, and that will be the last we see of that dreadful apparition.

It’s also looking more and more as though the Republican Party faces its own civil war, especially after Speaker Mike Johnson’s perplexing flipperooski on the Ukraine aid vote. You recall, just weeks ago he said no dice to such a deal without a stop to the invasion coming across our Mexican border. Then, the intel blob boys lured him into a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility) where they showed him...something! Everyone’s dying to know what. A secret signed agreement making Ukraine our 51st State? Photographs of Mike engaged in unwholesome recreations with Gawd knows who or what? Or did they just have a little talk with him about how stuff is supposed to work? Whatever it was has made Mike Johnson untenable in his position. And he has explained nothing. He’s got to go.

At the other end of all that stands - or, rather, sits at a defense table - Donald Trump, the seemingly inevitable leader of a party seeking to cough him up like a hairball stuck in its craw. And yet, every week that passes, the various lawfare traps set up to snare him look more amateurish and gauche - while the Golden Golem of Greatness somehow manages to power through all that adversity. A big faction of the party he leads is in on that nefarious game. The wild card is the increasingly inflamed mood of the American people, in whose name the game is supposedly being played. With absolutely everyone lying to them about everything, it’s turned into some kind of bad faith olympics."

"US Congress Betrays America While Waving Ukrainian Flags"

"US Congress Betrays America While Waving Ukrainian Flags"
by Mike Adams

"Every single person I've heard from over the weekend feels completely betrayed by the U.S. Congress approving another 95 billion for Ukraine and Israel - while waving Ukrainian flags on the floor of the House - while approving ZERO funding for securing the U.S. border. It's the ultimate insult, and it proves that we've lost America to a cabal of special interest gold-digging whores who claim to be our "representatives" in Washington D.C. Full details in today's Brighteon Broadcast News, plus a shocking interview with Miguel Casas about human trafficking across the wide open border." Full broadcast and interview here: 
o
George Galloway MP, 4/22/24
"Colonel Douglas Macgregor: 
Washington Insiders Now Call It Epstein Island Large"
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"Economic Market Snapshot 4/22/24"

"Economic Market Snapshot 4/22/24"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
o
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"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
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Commentary, highly recommended:
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the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
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