Wednesday, November 23, 2022

"Trillions Upon Trillions Of Dollars Of Wealth Is Being Wiped Out As The 'Everything Collapse' Accelerates"

Full screen recommended.

"Trillions Upon Trillions Of Dollars Of Wealth Is Being 
Wiped Out As The 'Everything Collapse' Accelerates"
by Michael Snyder

"Have you checked on the health of your investments lately? If not, you may be surprised to find out where things currently stand. As the “everything collapse” accelerates, trillions upon trillions of dollars of wealth is being wiped out. Many that thought that they were financially set for the rest of their lives are now in panic mode as asset values rapidly crumble. Just look at what happened to Sam Bankman-Fried. He was worth 16 billion dollars coming into this month, and now the value of his assets has been “reduced to zero”. In fact, when you factor in all the money that he owes to creditors, it is likely that his net worth is actually less than zero. That is how fast it can happen.

Overall, the cryptocurrency industry “has lost more than $1.4 trillion in value this year”…"The cryptocurrency market has lost more than $1.4 trillion in value this year as the industry has been plagued with problems from failed projects to a liquidity crunch, exacerbated by the fall of FTX, once one of the world’s largest exchanges."

FTX wasn’t the first domino to fall, and it certainly won’t be the last. In fact, now we are being warned that Genesis “may need to file for bankruptcy”…"Digital-asset brokerage Genesis is struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and it’s warning potential investors that it may need to file for bankruptcy if its efforts fail, according to people with knowledge of the matter."

Ouch. If Genesis fails, that is going to hurt. So why is Genesis in so much trouble? Well, it turns out that Genesis had “$175 million locked in an FTX trading account”…"Genesis has spent the past several days seeking at least $1 billion in fresh capital, said the people, who asked not to be identified because discussions are private. That included talks over a potential investment from crypto exchange Binance, they said, but funding so far has failed to materialize. The rush for funding was precipitated by a liquidity crunch at the lender after the sudden collapse of FTX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Genesis halted redemptions shortly after revealing on Nov. 10 that it had $175 million locked in an FTX trading account."

Needless to say, that 175 million dollars is now gone and it isn’t coming back. Meanwhile, Coinbase continues to spiral downhill as well. According to Axios, the market cap for Coinbase has now fallen under 10 billion dollars…"The market capitalization of Coinbase just dropped below $10 billion. This time last year, it was more than $70 billion."

Of course it isn’t just the crypto industry that is in enormous trouble. For years, Tesla’s stock price just kept going higher and higher. But now Tesla’s market value is about 670 billion dollars lower than it was at this time last year…"Business Insider reports that Tesla’s market valuation has plummeted by nearly $700 billion from its peak a year ago. Insider notes that the $670 billion decline is equivalent to the market value of three Disneys, four Nikes, or six Starbucks."

Meanwhile, ordinary U.S. consumers are losing a tremendous amount of wealth as well. According to the New York Post, U.S. homeowners “lost a staggering $1.3 trillion in home equity in the third quarter”…"US homeowners lost a staggering $1.3 trillion in home equity in the third quarter during a major slump in the housing sector, according to data published by mortgage analytics firm Black Knight on Tuesday."

Home equity – broadly defined as the value of a homeowner’s property minus what is still owed on their mortgage – has plummeted during a rapid market correction. The equity losses in just three months were “by far the largest quarterly decline on record by dollar value and the largest since 2009 on a percentage basis,” according to Black Knight data & analytics president Ben Graboske. We have never seen a quarter like that before. Not even during the crisis of 2008 and 2009 did we see such a huge quarterly loss.

A new housing crash is here, and it has already gone global. In fact, Spain has already developed a plan to offer “mortgage support relief” to over a million Spanish households…"Spain’s cabinet on Tuesday gave its approval to mortgage relief support for more than one million vulnerable households and help for middle-class families a day after the government and banks reached an agreement in principle. The measures are subject to final negotiations with banking associations, Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said, adding that banks had a month to sign up ahead of their planned implementation next year."

Sadly, we will see much more government intervention all over the western world as this nightmare gets even worse in the months ahead. The pace of layoffs is really starting to pick up, and there is a lot of fear out there right now. Just about everyone can feel that very tough times are in front of us, and some experts are now issuing bold pronouncements that are quite chilling.

For example, Nouriel Roubini is warning that what we are facing is probably going to be “as bad as during the Global Financial Crisis”… “History suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to avoid a hard landing. You’re going to get not only inflation, not only a recession, but what I call the ‘Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.’ So it’s much worse than the ’70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the Global Financial Crisis.”

Actually, if all we go through is a repeat of what we experienced in 2008 and 2009 we would be extremely fortunate. Because the truth is that it isn’t just the economy that is failing. As I have repeatedly warned my regular readers, what we are now witnessing is literally the collapse of everything. Our entire society is slowly but surely coming apart at the seams all around us, but most people still expect that conditions will eventually return to “normal”. Unfortunately, “normal” has left the building, and a tremendous amount of pain is ahead."
Related:

Bill Bonner, "Beyond Turkey"

"Beyond Turkey"
The fate of fake meat, SBF's woke dynasty, 
the meme stock mess and plenty more...
by Bill Bonner

Baltimore, Maryland - "We saw yesterday that – like it or not – leaves fall in the cool autumn air. Like it or not, the stocks that rise the most in the bubble…tumble furthest in the bust. And, boo hoo, the greatest geniuses of the low-interest era turn out to be the biggest dumbos when rates revert to normal.

We watched the meteoric rise of SBF, for example. Readers wondering who, exactly, is in the ‘elite’ that we keep talking about, have to look no further than Sam Bankman-Fried. James Kuntsler explains: "The Bankman-Fried extended family is the quintessence of Woke aristocracy. Dad Joe Bankman and mom Barbara Fried are both law professors at Stanford. She also acted as a money-bundler for the Democratic Party and ran two non-profit “voter registration” orgs (against the IRS laws which only permit non-partisan organized voter registration).

Brother Gabe Bankman-Fried headed a non-profit named Guarding Against Pandemics (funded by Sam), which lobbies Congress to construct new platforms for medical tyranny. Aunt Linda Fried is Dean of Columbia U’s Public Health school, and is associated with Johns Hopkins, which ran the October 2019 Event 201 pandemic drill (sponsored by the Gates Foundation) months before the Covid-19 outbreak.

Sam’s girlfriend, Caroline Ellison, ran the Alameda Investments arm of the FTX empire (that is, FTX’s own money laundromat). Her dad, Glenn Ellison, is chair of MIT’s Econ School. His former colleague on the MIT Econ faculty, Gary Gensler, who specialized in blockchains there, is now head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, an agency that Sam Bankman-Fried was attempting to rope into a regulation scheme to eliminate FTX’s crypto-currency competitors."

But all those illustrious, Deep State connections didn’t stop Mr. Market from kicking SBF in the pants. And lo! Mr. Market now has his butt-kicking boots on.

Beyond Hope: Yesterday, the major indexes rose; the bounce continues. But it won’t save the disruptors. They’re getting disrupted anyway. Bankman is bankrupt. Carvana crashed when used car prices went back to normal. Zillow was wrecked when its algorithm failed to notice mortgage rates heading back to normal. Meme stocks – like GameStop – are being un-memed. And Beyond Meat – the turkey’s great hope – is almost beyond hope.

During its heyday…which was only about a year ago…GameStop lovers would buy the stock just to show themselves how cool they were. All it took was a suspicion on Reddit that a big, savvy investor – preferably a hedge fund – was selling the stock short and they were on the case like flies in an outhouse. The little, un-savvy guys bought the stock. The price soared. And the ‘short’ lost money. (Or, the ‘short’ had merely given out the word that he was short, while actually having a big long position, and made a lot of money as the stock went up.) Now, we’re still far from ‘normal,’ but we can see it from here. GameStop has lost 70% from its peak. And in ‘normal’ times investors don’t buy stocks just to spite the pros. They buy them because they think they offer good value.

Which brings us to Beyond Meat. Anytime a company advertises itself as doing good…rather than merely trying to make a buck (such as FTX, which claimed to be only making money so it could contribute to charities)…watch your wallet. Beyond Meat makes plant-based food that looks like meat. For people who like meat but don’t want to eat dead animals…it offered a solution. And for investors who worried about the flatulence of bovines…or the energy required to raise animals…or the cruelty of slaughtering them, Beyond Meat offered an opportunity. They could put their money where their mouths were.

Beyond Reason: The trouble was…they didn’t seem to want to put their mouths where the Beyond products were. But we’ll come to that in a minute. The Wall Street Journal reports: "In May 2019, Beyond launched one of the most successful initial public offerings by a major company in more than two decades…Then…While Beyond’s sales grew 56% to $465 million between 2019 and 20121, its costs and debt grew far faster.

In May, 2019, the stock was trading at $66. By July it was over $200. Another Bubble Epoch success story. Beyond was disrupting the whole animal protein business. Why go to all the trouble – not to mention incurring the environmental costs – of raising, feeding, and slaughtering animals if you could get the same taste and nutrition from something produced in a factory?

But while the Bubble Epoch sows success stories, the Bust Era reaps failures. WSJ continues: "US grocery sales of plant-based meat substitutes are declining, and rival imitation-meat makers are capturing market share. Beyond’s stock is down 83% in the last 12 months. Beyond’s losses deepened from $12 million to $182 million while its debt climbed to $1.1 billion between 2019 and 2021. The company’s losses in the nine months that ended Oct.1 were $299 million…"

Let’s see… Falling sales. A profit margin of about NEGATIVE 80% (for every $1 in sales, the company loses 80 cents). More than a billion in debt. The sales and margin figures make Beyond’s debt very high risk. And the carrying cost of high-yield business debt is rising fast. Too bad for the turkeys, but Beyond Meat may soon be dead meat."

"Massive Shrinkflation At Dollar Tree! This Is Ridiculous! Not Good!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 11/23/22:
"Massive Shrinkflation At Dollar Tree! 
This Is Ridiculous! Not Good!"
"In today's vlog we are Dollar Tree, and are noticing massive food products that have shrunk in size! We are also noticing a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"One Can Fight Evil..."

Boobus Americanus, champion of willful ignorance.
They don't know because they don't want to know...
'One can fight evil but against stupidity one is helpless.'
- Henry Miller
 "Alas, regardless of their doom,
The little victims play!
No sense have they of ills to come,
Nor care beyond to-day..."
Oh, we so deserve what we get...

"The Real Glory..."

“The real glory is being knocked to your knees and then coming back.
That’s real glory. That’s the essence of it.”
- Vince Lombardi
“How Buster Douglas Beat Mike Tyson” 
by johnnysmack7

“Going into the fight, Mike Tyson was the undefeated and undisputed heavyweight champion of the world. He held the WBC, WBA, and IBF titles. Despite the several controversies that marked Tyson’s profile at the time, such as his notorious, abusive relationship with Robin Givens; the contractual battles between longtime manager Bill Cayton and promoter Don King; and Tyson’s departure from longtime trainer Kevin Rooney, Mike Tyson was still lethal in the ring, scoring a 93-second knockout against Carl “The Truth” Williams in his previous fight. Most considered this fight to be a warm-up bout for Tyson before meeting up with then-undefeated number 1 heavyweight contender Evander Holyfield (who was ringside for the fight). Tyson was viewed as such a dominant heavyweight that he was not only viewed as the world’s top heavyweight, but often as the number one fighter in the world pound-for-pound (including by “Ring Magazine”), a rarity for heavyweights.

Buster Douglas was ranked as just the #7 heavyweight by Ring Magazine, and had met with mixed success in his professional boxing career up to that point. His previous title fight was against Tony Tucker in 1987, in which he was TKO’d in the 10th round. However, a string of six consecutive wins gave him the opportunity to fight Tyson. In the time leading up to the fight, Douglas faced a number of setbacks, including the death of his mother, Lula Pearl, 23 days before the fight. Additionally, the mother of his son was facing a severe kidney ailment, and he had contracted the flu on the day before the fight.”
Full screen mode recommended.
At 2:40 of this video Douglas takes a tremendous uppercut and goes down, kneeling to clear his head; look closely...you can see him wondering to himself if he should get up. No one at all expected him to, but he reached for something deep inside himself, found an inner strength perhaps even he was unaware of, and got back up to continue the fight. The rest, as they say, is history… and real glory. – CP

"Thurber's Tail: How My Dog Brought Joy To My Elderly Dad"

"Thurber's Tail: 
How My Dog Brought Joy To My Elderly Dad"
by Tom Purcell

"My Lab puppy, Thurber, was born on Christmas Day, 2020 - the best Christmas blessing I ever received. But he bestowed even greater blessings on my mother and father. In his 87th year, my father was facing a series of health challenges. Waiting for the other shoe to drop - waiting for a middle-of-the night call to help pick him up from a fall - had become the norm. Visits to my parents’ house were becoming less joyful and more stressful as my dad, with limited mobility, needed help getting in and out of his chair and had to ask his kids to assist with the many daily tasks he used to do himself so effortlessly.

We gave my father endless support as his needs grew but his decline brought sadness, and the sadness began permeating my parents’ home, hitting us hard every time we entered the front door. That all changed the day I brought my puppy Thurber home.

Thurber's first visit: The day I picked Thurber up in Punxsutawney, Pa., my plan was to drive directly to my mom and dad’s house. I slipped into their house quietly through the garage and sneaked up the back steps. I knew they’d be in the family room watching an old movie. That’s what they often did in the afternoons - and, sure enough, that is what they were doing.

In I walked, a soft cuddly puppy in my arms - and the room lit up like a Christmas tree. The joy was immediate and, just like that, my mom and dad were transformed from their late 80s into giddy, 10-year-old children. I set Thurber on my father’s lap and the puppy was in his glory, his tail wagging wildly. Dogs always loved my father and sensed instantly, and correctly, that he was the alpha male in the room. The two played and cuddled a good long while as Thurber climbed all over my dad and found an especially comfortable spot between him and the arm of his recliner.

I brought Thurber over to my mom and she too was thrust into instant joy and affection. We never think of our parents as being children, but with a puppy in her arms my mother became a happy little girl. It was as if her father, who died when she was only 19, was watching over her again - providing her with the warmth and security he did so well in her childhood.

After a time, my mother set Thurber on the floor, where I lay enticing him to play with me. I laughed aloud as he jumped on me and showered me with his affection, but it was more than just puppy affection that brought me so much joy. It was wonderful to feel the undivided love and playfulness my puppy directed solely at me. Better yet, it made my mother and father happy to see their middle-aged son being made so happy by the puppy who would now be an integral part of his world.

An angel of joy: I stayed a few hours that Friday afternoon, the first time in months we were able to forget about my dad’s health woes - the first time we laughed in I don’t recall how long. The power of a puppy is transformative, and my transformation was just beginning then, and continues still.

There is a saying I came across in which God is talking to a puppy and he says, “I removed your wings so they won’t know you are an angel.” Well, on the day I brought Thurber home, he became an angel of joy to my father and mother.

I didn’t know that for the next year and a half I’d be able to bring him to my parents’ house for multiple visits that inevitably resulted in childlike happiness for us all - sadness left their home instantly every time Thurber visited. And when Thurber celebrated his first birthday on Christmas Day of 2021, we had the celebration in my parents’ home, and it was a grand event full of laughter and joy.

I didn’t know last Christmas that my father would leave us nine months later - he’d leave us a few days after we’d celebrated his 89th birthday. But I will treasure forever the many joyful visits Thurber and I made to my parents’ home, in which their difficult days were made so much brighter by a furry angel with hidden wings!"

Editor's note: This column is an excerpt from Tom Purcell’s new book, “Tips from a New Dog Dad.” Read more chapters at ThurbersTail.com.

"How It Really Is, For Far Too Many"

"How Much Is That Turkey In The Window?”

"How Much Is That Turkey In The Window?”
by Peter Roff

"This week, people from all walks of life - from the many different faiths, races, and ethnicities who inhabit this wonderful place we call America - will gather together and give thanks, grateful for the blessings they’ve received over the last twelve months.

In previous years, they might have given thanks for health, for family, for children, for grandchildren, for employment, and for that special hope or dream that was unexpectedly realized. This year, in 2022, they’ll no doubt also be giving thanks the turkey dinner with all the trimmings they’re about to enjoy didn’t break the bank.

Like everything else, Tom Turkey’s risen in price, up by a record high 20% over last year, according to the folks that feed the nation and the world over at the American Farm Bureau. The average meal for ten, the Farm Bureau says, will cost about $64, which may not seem like a lot to some people but, as just under $6.50 a person, is considerably more than people are used to paying.

That pumpkin pie on the table? Inflation’s eating into it faster than Uncle Ed will when he raids the refrigerator after everyone else has gone to sleep. Never before in the group’s 37-year history of tracking the price of what is usually found on the Thanksgiving table have prices risen so quickly in so short a time.

Who’s to blame? The Farm Bureau says it’s the continuing increase in inflation month over month of between 7 and 9% and the 12% hike on the most recent Consumer Price Index numbers regarding food consumed at home.

“Farmers are working hard to meet growing demands for food — both here in the U.S. and globally — while facing rising prices for fuel, fertilizer, and other inputs,” said Farm Bureau Chief Economist Roger Cryan said – and we should all be thankful they are. They’re not responsible for the rise in prices.

Neither are the truckers who bring the turkeys and boxes of stuffing and loaves of bread and sweet potatoes and the bags of those tiny marshmallows, without which no Thanksgiving table is complete. Or the hardworking people who stock the shelves and ring up your purchases in the checkout line while wishing you a “Happy Holiday!”

The hike in prices also isn’t the fault of the people who own and manage the stores that sell us the dinner fixings or run the distribution centers and the freight companies that move products from one place to another.

No, the ones responsible for making your Thanksgiving dinner the most expensive ever are the turkeys in Washington who keep spending your money like it was their own. Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods and services. Higher demands fuel higher prices.

How did all that money get into circulation? The Fed printed it so Congress could spend it on the American Rescue Plan and other so-called relief programs that paid people not to work and producers not to produce from what was left over after the scammers and rip-off artists got who knows how many tens or hundreds of millions of your hard-earned tax dollars.

Then there’s the effort to eliminate oil and natural gas from the receipt for American energy that’s raised the cost of everything from the industrial processes required to produce the food items we expect to enjoy to the price of the diesel fuel consumed to bring it to your local grocers – if it’s available.

The Washington crowd doesn’t want you to put all the pieces together. Policymakers would prefer you focus on the ceremonial presidential pardon of the Christmas turkeys so they can continue to blame greedy businessmen for the fact you had to pinch pennies on your holiday meal while they dined like the Middle Eastern potentates of old.

Don’t be fooled. The cost of the food on your table this year and every year at the end of November has everything to do with how you voted earlier in the month. It may seem crass to some to point this out at a time when we’re supposed to feel thankful that will live in a country where expressions like these are allowed. But it’s important to think about the role policy made in Washington has on the aspects of everyday life. Some people call it “pocketbook economics.” Others call it just plain old common sense. In either case, it's important to keep at least in the back of your mind how the policies made by the politicians ostensibly in your best interests work against you.

Hopefully, it will different next year, when you gather around the same table to give thanks for your blessings once again – that is if higher rents and rising interest rates haven’t forced you to move to a new place, or homeless, by then."

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

The Markets Are Fake, The Crash Is Real, Prepare Now"

Jeremiah Babe, 11/22/22:
"The Markets Are Fake, The Crash Is Real, Prepare Now"
Comments here:

"There's No Place Like Home(less) For The Holidays"

Very strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 11/22/22:
"There's No Place Like Home(less) For The Holidays"
"The Trends Journal" is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Find out more here: https://trendsjournal.com
Comments here:

"1000s Of Cattle Are Disappearing From The US Food Supply Chain As Global Starvation Plan Accelerates"

Full screen recommended.
"1000s Of Cattle Are Disappearing From The US Food
 Supply Chain As Global Starvation Plan Accelerates"
by Epic Economist

"Don’t you think that’s strange that thousands upon thousands of cattle heads are simply vanishing from our food supply chains every week? Ranchers are warning America that a meat recession is coming as our beef cattle herd continues to shrink by large numbers. A major sell-off this summer led to the liquidation of countless livestock herds, but the mass slaughter hasn’t stopped during the fall, and it is in fact, at historical highs for this time of the year. Now, farmers are telling us that it will take years for supplies to come back to normal levels, and this means we will have to get used to paying much more expensive prices for meat from now on. This situation is triggering widespread alarm across the food industry, and in today’s video, we’re going to investigate what is driving the silent collapse of the largest agricultural industry in the United States.

A convergence of many disruptions has made farmers and ranchers deal with some of the toughest conditions for livestock raising in more than a decade, and they’re telling us that it will take several years to rebuild our national cattle production. In a recent publication to clients, meat distributor Good Ranchers warned that “a meat recession is knocking and supply is about to be tight” as the US cattle herd continues to decline. “The cattle herd has shrunk due to droughts,” Good Ranchers wrote. “Our total meat supply for the coming year is down significantly. This is one of the main reasons a meat recession is coming.”

Many other factors are also contributing to this crunch. The truth is that way before ranchers witnessed the worst drought and the most intense heatwaves in over a century during the summer, the U.S. beef cattle herd has been decreasing. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that as of January 1, 2022, the herd was down by 2.6 million cattle head compared to the same period a year earlier. In April, way before scorching temperatures started to dry up water reserves and burn grass, Northstar Commodity market analyst Mark Schultz revealed that cow liquidation was about 9% to 9.5% higher than a year prior, and that meant that the daily cattle slaughter was at 126,000 - to 128,000-head range.

In the summer months, things have gotten exponentially worse. With drought impacting the vast majority of U.S. farmland, and particularly affecting Texas ranchers, an unprecedented selloff started to take place due to the lack of water, high feed prices, and financial pressures weighing on farmers and ranchers. By July 1, the volume of cattle going to auction was up about 20% from the same time in 2021, and the proportion of the animals over 600 pounds was way below normal.

In other words, our meat supply will keep going down, and we’re not rebuilding production at the same pace as we’re consuming those supplies, and that’s worrying food industry executives who have been warning about worsening food shortages for months. The mass slaughter shows no sign of slowing in November, and with that extraordinary level of liquidation, price pressures are likely to keep meat off the table of many Americans. Sadly, even though we’re one of the world’s largest meat producers, millions of Americans won’t be able to access the goods we produce in our country. The cost of food is becoming way too unaffordable for many households out there, and if you thought 2022 was a hard year for your finances, brace for more pain in 2023 because these are just the first few chapters of this horrifying crisis."
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Post Market Wrap-up: Three Things To Watch, Consumer Debt Skyrocketing"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 11/22/22:
"Post Market Wrap-up: Three Things To Watch, 
Consumer Debt Skyrocketing"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Sea and Silence"

Deuter, "Sea and Silence"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In the heart of the Rosette Nebula lies a bright open cluster of stars that lights up the nebula. The stars of NGC 2244 formed from the surrounding gas only a few million years ago. The featured image taken in January using multiple exposures and very specific colors of Sulfur (shaded red), Hydrogen (green), and Oxygen (blue), captures the central region in tremendous detail. 
A hot wind of particles streams away from the cluster stars and contributes to an already complex menagerie of gas and dust filaments while slowly evacuating the cluster center. The Rosette Nebula's center measures about 50 light-years across, lies about 5,200 light-years away, and is visible with binoculars towards the constellation of the Unicorn (Monoceros)."

"Ex Obscurum"

Full screen recommended.
"Ex Obscurum, Adagio for Strings, Op. 11"
"From emotional turmoil, hatred, and addiction the miracle of recovery begins in this Spadecaller Video entitled "Ex Obscurum" (From Darkness). Featuring original poetry narrated by the author and visual artist, Matthew Schwartz. Composer Samuel Barber's powerful musical score, adopted for the movie "Platoon", (Adagio for Strings) sets the background for this spiritual exodus "From Darkness."

"The Beginning Of A New Day..."

"This is the beginning of a new day.
You have been given this day to use as you will.
You can waste it or use it for good.
What you do today is important because 
you are exchanging a day of your life for it.
When tomorrow comes, this day will be gone forever;
in its place is something that you have left behind...
let it be something good."
- Author Unknown

Canadian Prepper, "We Need To Talk. Hard Times Are Coming"

Canadian Prepper, 11/22/22:
"We Need To Talk. Hard Times Are Coming"
"An honest conversation about the current reality of things, 
what we can expect moving forward and preparedness."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

South Pittsburg, Tennessee, USA. Thanks for  stopping by!

"A Little Late In The Game..."

 

'"The Most Important Price of All"

'"The Most Important Price of All"
Plus, reflexive markets, dancing leaves and 
lessons from the world of artificial intelligence...
by Bill Bonner And Joel Bowman

"Come little leaves said the wind one day
Down to the meadow with me and play.
Over the meadow they danced and flew
Singing the sweet little songs they knew."
~ Old folk song

Baltimore, Maryland - "We kept a fire burning in the kitchen while we worked outside this weekend, tearing down a “run in” for the horses in order to recycle the materials for a larger chicken coop. The horses are gone and the chickens are still here; they need a bigger house. We built the “run in” (a small, open barn) about 20 years ago. Pulling out the nails, we wished we hadn’t done such a good job. The air was crisp. The wind blew. And the leaves danced and flew.

Meanwhile…We turn our attention to the financial world…the world of prices. Executive Summary: They dance around too. Forbes: "Oil Prices Plunge As Economic Woes Intensify—Here's Why That Means Gas Prices Could Soon Fall Below $3 Per Gallon." "Oil prices plummeted to 10-month lows Monday morning after stark warnings from Chinese officials shed light on the nation's increasingly worrisome Covid outbreak—highlighting the uncertainty shrouding the global economy but also fueling hopes that gas prices may fall below $3 a gallon for the first time in 18 months. With oil prices tumbling more than 18% this month, the nation's average gas price has fallen in tandem, shedding nearly 12 cents from a week ago to $3.64 per gallon, GasBuddy reported Monday."

What’s going on? What happened to inflation?

Blackouts Ahead: The oil industry is huge, mature, complex…but it still gets goosebumps when it listens to the news. And all markets are “reflexive.” They react. They adjust. When it gets cold, they put on their coats and hats. Lower prices cause producers to cut back. Higher prices cause them to increase output. And then – what ho! – prices go down again.

But not all parts of the energy market are dancing to the same tune. Supplies of diesel and heating fuels are said to be running low – at least in the Northeast. Bloomberg reports: "A Quarter of Americans at Risk of Winter Power Blackouts, Grid Emergencies." "The electric grids at most risk of supply shortfalls are in Texas, the central US system stretching from the Great Lakes to Louisiana, New England and the Carolinas, the North American Electric Reliability Council said in its seasonal assessment Thursday. Severe weather may stress grids by causing demand to soar while supplies of natural gas, coal and back-up fuel oil are all tight, leaving little room for error, according to the report."

And look at the rockin’ and rollin’ in the used car market. Bloomberg: "Online car dealer Carvana Co.’s shares are careening toward an all-time low as investors grow more concerned about the continuing decline in used-vehicle prices. The price of the company’s stock fell as much as 14% to $6.90, on pace to close at a record low. Carvana, which was once touted as a disruptor in the used-car dealer industry for its online sales, has seen recession-wary investors flee this year from risky and expensive growth stocks."

Carvana is down 97% from the top. S&P earnings are down 10%, year-to-year.

Too Kind, Too Kind: In housing, too, rising interest rates and falling prices are disrupting the disruptors. Zillow, for example, has been cut in half from its February high. (Joel has more on the Zillow story, below.) The median price of an existing house has dropped 8% since June. And building permits hit a 26-month low in October. Other price news: Fertilizer is down 40% since March. Cranberries are down 14%. Global freight rates have dropped 73% from their peak.

But the price we watch most closely is the price of credit. There, it was the Fed who disrupted the normal marketplace by holding rates below zero, in real terms, for more than 10 years. Normally, prices dance to tunes called by the real economy. But in the interest rate market, it goes the other way; the Fed fiddles interest rates and arms and legs start shaking and shimmying all over the country.

Fed governors were so happy when they could hold their key rate down…and make everyone at the party happy too. But excess generosity begat excess debt…especially of the junk variety. And now, it’s the Fed that is being disrupted.

The first leaf fell back in the summer of 2020, when the yield on the 10-year treasury hit a bottom below 6/10ths of a percent. Now, a chill wind blows the yield up towards 4%. At that rate, the federal government gets disrupted, too. The 10-year Treasury is the basic brick of the whole capital structure. And if the entire edifice of federal debt now in private hands – $24 trillion worth – had to be refinanced at 4%, the resulting outlay would be more than the defense budget.

But everything takes time. Debt may be marked to market every business day, but it is only refinanced as it matures. Federal debt has an average maturity of 6 years…so about $12 trillion will have to be rolled over before 2028. This, along with trillion-dollar deficits, will most likely force interest rates higher still. As the financing and re-financing continues, yields will keep rising. By 2025, US 10-year Treasuries could easily yield 10% or more…and millions of households and businesses would be bankrupt. Who knows what cranberries will cost then?"
Joel’s Note: "Special message to artificial intelligence gurus, climate modelers and Thanksgiving turkeys alike: The past does not equal the future. It’s been a year since Zillow, the online real estate marketplace, learned this lesson the hard way. Mashing together multiple gimmicky ideas, the company launched its iBuyer (or “instant buyer”) algorithm in 2018, following companies like Redfin, Opendoor and Offerpad into the dubious world of large scale property flipping.

The idea was to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms to predict the future value of real estate prices based on past trends and current trajectories... and to make automatic (“instant”) offers on deals deemed to be “priced below model.” The concept seemed appealing enough... at least to the team of programmers and coders responsible for writing the algorithm. No need for site inspections... in person viewings... shaking hands with the owner... understanding the socio-economic dynamics of the “location, location, location.”

In fact, human beings could step aside altogether. With iBuyer at the ready, it was simply a matter of plugging in the data and letting the past inform the future. What could go wrong? Lots, it turns out...

Hook, Line and Algorithm: For starters, prices could go down as well as up. So when the market began to shift and cool, during the early days of the pandemic, iBuyer was still locked in “everything is awesome” mode. This caused it to significantly overestimate the market value of thousands of properties, which it promptly snapped up, “thinking” it was getting the houses at steep bargains.

In machine learning, this problem is referred to as “concept drift.” In human learning, it’s just called “real life.” Turns out, markets are complex beasts, with millions of highly variable individual inputs, any one of which can cause a cascading set of unpredictable eventualities.

The over-excited iBuyer algorithm ended up acquiring more properties in the back half of 2021 than it had in the previous two years. When “adjustments were made” (and, no doubt, some programmers shown the exit), Zillow was forced to reduce the estimated value of the houses it purchased by more than $500 million.

As Zillow attempted to unload the now-overvalued assets (which bear significant carrying costs), it quickly found itself selling into falling markets across the country, further exacerbating its own problem. At one point, Bloomberg reported that Zillow was attempting to sell 7,000 houses in order to recoup $2.8 billion in losses. That didn’t go well. Zillow is down 46% year to date.

We are reminded of this important lesson around Thanksgiving every year, when we remember the fattened turkey, blissfully pecking around the farmyard and musing nonchalantly on his life so far, with nary a meat cleaver in sight. As they say in the financial publishing industry, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” iBuyers... climate modelers... and other Thanksgiving turkeys... take note."

"The Economy Is About To Be Derailed"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, 11/22/22:
"The Economy Is About To Be Derailed"
"As we enter the holiday season, we are about to see a rail strike completely up end the economy. It will destroy the economy and completely derail it."
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

 

"What Are The Facts?"

"What are the facts? Again and again and againwhat are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what the stars foretell, avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the un-guessable verdict of history - what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!"
- Robert A. Heinlein

"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains,
however improbable, must be the truth."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "Sherlock Holmes"

And always remember...
"When a learned man argues with an idiot two fools debate."
- Fu-shi

"Washington's Dangerous Ukraine Boondoggle Is Starting To Unravel"

"Washington's Dangerous Ukraine 
Boondoggle Is Starting To Unravel"
by Ron Paul

"Last week the world stood on the very edge of a nuclear war, as Ukraine’s US-funded president, Vladimir Zelensky, urged NATO military action over a missile that landed on Polish soil. "This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed," said Zelensky immediately after the missile landed.

But there was a problem. The missile was fired from Ukraine – likely an accident in the fog of war. Was it actually a Russian missile, of course, that might mean World War III. But Zelensky didn’t seem to be bothered by the prospect of the world blown up, judging from his reckless rhetoric.

While Zelensky has been treated as a saint by the US media, the Biden Administration, and both parties in Congress, something unprecedented happened this time: the Biden Administration pushed back. According to press reports, several Zelensky calls to Biden or senior Biden Staff went unanswered.

When US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally returned Zelensky’s call, he is reported to have said, “tread carefully” on claims Russia was behind the missiles landing in Poland. The Biden Administration went on to publicly dispute Zelensky’s continued insistence that Russia shot missiles into NATO-Member Poland. After two days of Washington opposition to his claims, Zelensky finally, sort of, backed down.

We’ve heard rumors of President Biden’s frustration over Zelensky’s endless begging and ingratitude for the 60 or so billion dollars doled out to him by the US government, but this is the clearest public example of the Biden Administration’s acceptance that it has a “Zelensky problem.”

Zelensky must have understood that Washington and Brussels knew it was not a Russian missile. Considering the vast intelligence capabilities of the US in that war zone, it is likely the US government knew in real time that the missiles were not Russian. For Zelensky to claim otherwise seemed almost unhinged. And for what seems like the first time, Washington noticed.

As a result, there has been a minor – but hopefully growing – revolt among conservatives in Washington over this dangerous episode. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene introduced legislation demanding an audit of the tens of billions of dollars shipped to Ukraine – with perhaps $50 billion more in the pipeline. The resolution currently has eleven co-sponsors.

Rep. Matt Gaetz has publicly stated that he would not vote for one more dollar for Ukraine. Others, like US Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ), have gone even further. In a recent Tweet Rep. Gosar called US support for Ukraine a “corrupt money-laundering operation.” As the fallout from the recent collapse of the FTX crypto exchange points to possible political corruption, his claims may prove to be accurate.

When Sen. Paul introduced an amendment to the massive aid package to Ukraine calling for someone to audit the funds, he was ridiculed and attacked. Some seven months later, his position appears far more accepted. And that’s a good thing.

When the Ukraine war hysteria finally dies down – as the Covid hysteria died down before it – it will become obvious to vastly more Americans what an absolute fiasco this whole thing has been. Hopefully Republicans will accelerate that process when they take the House in January. It cannot come too soon!"
Gerald Celente, Judging Freedom 11/22/22:
“Phil Giraldi: Putting an End to Zelensky’s Follies"
Comments here:

"The Ukraine Conflict Was Clearly Not Unprovoked"

Straight Calls with Douglas Macgregor, 11/22/22:
"The Ukraine Conflict Was Clearly Not Unprovoked"
"Your home for analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current geopolitical events in the United states and the world. Geopolitics. No ego descriptions. No small talk. Straight to the point. Calls with the relevant analysis only."
Comments here:
Related:

"It's Only Weeks Away And It Might Be Worse Than The Great Recession"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 11/22/22:
"It's Only Weeks Away And It Might Be 
Worse Than The Great Recession"
"Many people are skipping Thanksgiving dinner because they simply can't afford it. We have disturbing new economic numbers out that show how we may be facing the worst economic crisis since the great recession and a couple of key data points that we want to talk about. Consumer spending is down, consumer savings is down and consumer credit is up, up, up!"
Comments here:

"Prepping Your Pantry At Meijer! Stock Up Now! What's Coming?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 11/22/22:
"Prepping Your Pantry At Meijer! 
Stock Up Now! What's Coming?"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are checking out some very high prices, and the empty shelves situation. We come across some great grocery deals that are worth stocking up on for the future. With inflation at an all time high we have to take advantage of these sales while we can. It's getting rough out here as stores continue to struggle getting in products."
Comments here:

Monday, November 21, 2022

"Breaking: Europe Just Declared Russia a Terror State! Advises People to Stock Up On Food & Water"

Canadian Prepper, 11/21/22:
"Breaking: Europe Just Declared Russia a Terror State! 
Advises People to Stock Up On Food & Water"
"NATO just deemed Russia a state sponsor of terror, this is just short of a declaration of conflict. Germany encourages citizens to stockpile food and water as civil defense bunkers are examined and refurbished, German patriot missiles moving to front line Poland, Europe is stockpiling diesel and already running out of natural gas. The Nuclear power plant averts catastrophe once again but it's only a matter of time. Millions flee Ukraine."
Comments here:
"It would indeed be a tragedy if the history of the human race proved to be nothing more than the story of an ape playing with a box of matches on a petrol dump." 
- David Ormsby-Gore

"We Ain't Going Back To Normal, Prepare For A Hard Crash; Housing Crash Inevitable"

Jeremiah Babe, 11/21/22:
"We Ain't Going Back To Normal,
 Prepare For A Hard Crash; Housing Crash Inevitable"
Comments here:

"Gas Stations Are About To Run Out Of Fuel As Supplies Collapse And Prices Hit Stratospheric Levels"

Full screen recommended.
"Gas Stations Are About To Run Out Of Fuel As 
Supplies Collapse And Prices Hit Stratospheric Levels"
by Epic Economist

"America’s supplies of gasoline and diesel are at critical levels – and things are going to get much worse than we’re being told. What we’re about to share with you today is a developing situation, and we will continue to keep track of the facts as this crisis evolves and the factors at play become clearer. Recent numbers show that a serious fuel crisis is coming this winter, and that will have a tremendous impact on our wallets and our economy. As you’ll see over the next few minutes, we’re being warned that gasoline prices are going to come back to historical highs, and oil executives are saying that there will be diesel shortages as demand for fuels soars amid the cold weather but our capacity to produce them remains limited. We understand that most Americans don’t spend much time thinking about diesel, but the truth is that without it our supply chains can’t function and our economy stops

On the West Coast, drivers are paying $6 a gallon on average. Nationwide, gas demand increased by half a million barrels per day last week while total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 2.4 million barrels. “If demand remains robust as supply tightens, drivers should brace for rising pump prices through the winter,” the AAA wrote. Meanwhile, on the East Coast, many gas stations have already been completely depleted. “Numerous terminals are out of gasoline and ethanol due to various supply delays,” according to distributor TAC Energy.

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration revealed that gasoline stockpiles on the East Coast have dwindled to their lowest seasonal level on a calendar basis since 2007. As authorities start to relocate supplies from other regions to help boost East Coast reserves, gas shortages may become even more widespread in the weeks ahead. At the same time, an acute shortage of diesel is already underway, and it is threatening to keep inflation and hitting bills elevated all across the country through the winter.

Diesel is the main fuel used for transporting goods as well as powering construction, farming, and military vehicles and equipment. Our stockpiles have been depleted to less than a third of their usual levels for this time of year, which is concerning since many states rely on fuel for heating in the winter. According to the founder of Oil Price Information Service, Tom Kloza, if the country runs out of fuel this winter, the consequences could be disastrous. "It would freeze global commerce," said Kloza. “I think that every fuel has been essentially in crisis this year, at one time or another," he added, saying that this crisis has been manageable in the summer, but "now, the biggest risk comes in the crunch time for cold Northern Hemisphere temperatures, I would say from Christmas through Valentine's Day," Kloza said.

We wish we could tell you that there is hope that a major crisis can be averted, but even the CEO of Exxon is warning about turbulent times ahead, we should definitely start listening. In an interview with CNBC, Darren Woods said “consumers must be prepared to endure up to five years of turbulent oil markets,” citing under-investment and an abrupt transition to renewable energy that will cause society to “pay a high price.”

We’re already witnessing with our own eyes the effects of all this whenever we go to the gas station to fill in our car tanks. Everything is definitely about to change, but not in a good way. This is going to be disastrous, and all of us will suffer from the consequences of this supply crunch."
Comments here:

And then... what? And we're talking weeks...

Musical Interlude: Vangelis, “Beautiful Planet Earth”

Full screen recommended.
Vangelis, “Beautiful Planet Earth”

Musical Interlude: Jefferson Airplane, "White Rabbit"

Full screen recommended.
Jefferson Airplane, "White Rabbit"
“Reality is what we take to be true.
What we take to be true is what we believe.
What we believe is based upon our perceptions.
What we perceive depends upon what we look for.
What we look for depends upon what we think.
What we think depends upon what we perceive.
What we perceive determines what we believe.
What we believe determines what we take to be true.
What we take to be true is our reality.”
- Gary Zukav

"A Look to the Heavens"

“NGC 253 is not only one of the brightest spiral galaxies visible, it is also one of the dustiest. Discovered in 1783 by Caroline Herschel in the constellation of Sculptor, NGC 253 lies only about ten million light-years distant.
NGC 253 is the largest member of the Sculptor Group of Galaxies, the nearest group to our own Local Group of Galaxies. The dense dark dust accompanies a high star formation rate, giving NGC 253 the designation of starburst galaxy. Visible in the above photograph is the active central nucleus, also known to be a bright source of X-rays and gamma rays.”

"Vitae Summa Brevis"

"Vitae Summa Brevis"

"They are not long, the weeping and the laughter,
Love and desire and hate:
I think they have no portion in us after
We pass the gate.
They are not long, the days of wine and roses;
Out of a misty dream
Our path emerges for a while, then closes
Within a dream."

- Ernest Dowson
“Vitae summa brevis spem nos vetat incohare longam”
 is a quotation from Horace’s “First Book of Odes”: 
“The shortness of life prevents us from entertaining far-off hopes.”