"Be Ready For Retail Apocalypse, Bankruptcies & Store Closings In America!"

"Be Ready For Retail Apocalypse, 

Bankruptcies & Store Closings In America!"

by Epic Economist

"Brick-and-mortar retailers and multiple major restaurant chains were already on the verge of collapse before the health crisis started, but authorities' response to the crisis turned out to be the nail in the coffin for many iconic businesses, as lockdowns and social distancing regulations accelerated the bankruptcy or permanent store closure of several retail stores last year. Not even during the holiday season sales improved and revenue in 2020 has been the worst for retailers in almost 25 years. Amid another round of restrictions and the prolonged closure of nonessential businesses, the retail apocalypse will likely be aggravated in 2021, especially since those who managed to stay afloat in spite of all the struggles they have been facing are having financial losses that might be too big to overcome. Another massive wave of bankruptcies is being anticipated and soon many celebrated American stores might be gone forever. That's what we expose in this video. 

Tens of thousands of stores have closed their doors for good last year, and as soon as people are encouraged to leave their homes and resume their habits, they will probably find a very different scenario because, according to newly available data, many retailers have experienced unrecoverable losses, which means that the meltdown will continue well into 2021. The year has already started with Macy's announcing 37 store closures all around the nation. Last Tuesday, the company revealed that the cuts come as an effort to regain profitability and, as previously disclosed, the chain intends to close 125 stores by 2023, adding to the list of the many victims of the retail apocalypse. 

It’s no news that the elimination of brick-and-mortar stores started with the growth of online shopping tendencies, particularly with Amazon leading the entire e-commerce retail sector. But now that consumers are stuck in their homes, and shutdowns have been compromising the operations and, therefore, the revenue of these stores, the deterioration of the industry has happened faster than expected, and things are about to get worse. 

Traditionally, Americans love to shop and most American shoppers have favorite stores, places to which they developed a trusting bond and have been regulars for years. That has made the current meltdown of brick-and-mortar retailers in the face of growing e-commerce that much more upsetting for a lot of people as their familiar, acclaimed retail institutions are going extinct. 

Evidently, consumers' pain is a minor determinant when compared to the impacts on staff and suppliers, who have either undergone or just about to undergo termination. The mass lay-offs triggered by the industry's collapse is inflaming even further the labor market crisis and putting these people in serious doubt on how their livelihoods will be affected when their store closes. 

Not even the holiday season has helped companies to produce enough revenue to survive through this dark winter. Last years' holiday shopping has made it clear that most retail sectors are not out of the woods yet and might experience further losses.

 What used to be one of the busiest periods for brick-and-mortar stores, actually had a disappointing attendance and record-low sales. Shopping centers have never been emptier during that time of the year. Experts have been arguing that the retail apocalypse may also lead to a major collapse of shopping malls. 

Economists are forecasting that retail sales won't regain traction the same level of traction they had in 2019 until at least 2022. Needless to say, this extended time of financial constraints is the perfect recipe for a disaster. 

Retailers suffered their worst annual sales performance in all U.S. history in 2020. Non-food products demand dropped nearly 5%. The overall contraction of one of the most powerful sectors of the U.S. economy is projected to be at 0.5% to 1%, depending on how different surveys conducted their calculations. Either way, it is already the worst annual performance in almost 25 years. 

The decay of non-food retailers isn't just affecting businesses. According to an Entrepreneur op-ed, "these companies hire workers who, unable to pay their rent, are now facing a grim situation. Some of the most populous commercial hubs in the world are seeing the result of the retail apocalypse through a reduction in real estate values as workers migrate to less expensive areas". 

That is to say, the commercial real state crash that is looming is also being propelled by the retail apocalypse. And by the look of things right now, everything is hanging by a thread, and a collective collapse like this one that has been forming for years will undoubtedly slow down the prospects for a recovery, compromising the U.S. economic strength for over a decade." 

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

"Here It Comes"

"Here It Comes"

by Brian Maher

“More than $1 trillion,” guessed The Washington Post. “Roughly $2 trillion,” countered CNN. Reuters split them both - $1.5 trillion. These were spending estimates for Mr. Biden’s proposed “vaccination and economic rescue legislative package.” Our spies have spent days sleuthing for the correct figure. But they too heard conflicting whispers. They expressed the most confidence in CNN’s crystal gazing. They were correct… evidently.

We are reliably informed that the proposal will enter the record at $1.9 trillion. Why it is not $1.8 trillion… or $2 trillion… we do not know. But we are further informed the package will furnish wherewithal for state and local aid. Education grants. The child tax credit. Unemployment insurance. And “stimulus” checks. We are finally informed these stimulus checks will run to $1,400 for each American adult - perhaps more.

How To Spend the Money? We will of course accept our $1,400 cheque from kind Uncle Samuel. Will he lift it from our back pocket and slip it into our hip pocket? In essence he will. The free lunch has no existence. But let that be tomorrow’s fret. We may turn that $1,400 into $14,000,000 by throwing it at bitcoin - or turn that $1,400 into $14 by throwing it at bitcoin. We do not know which outcome is likelier. Or we may bury it in the bank… and watch the $1,400 blossom into $14,000,000 by our 987th year on Earth.

We will consult our financial advisor.

Music To the Market’s Ears: Wall Street took to the news as cats take to catnip… The Dow Jones was up and away 150 points this morning. Both S&P and Nasdaq joined it aloft. They all came back down this afternoon, perhaps - because - of the latest unemployment data... First-time unemployment claims came in 965,000 last week. A Dow Jones survey of economists had divined 800,000. One day - the laws of chance assure it - these wiseacres will give an accurate forecast. That day we await with the highest expectations. But let it go for now.

Where Will the Money Come From? A question immediately presents itself:Where does a government sunk $27.8 trillion in debt... locate a spare $1.9 trillion… to fund a vaccination and economic rescue legislative package? The answer - of course - is that it cannot locate a spare $1.9 trillion anywhere.Nor can it locate a spare nickel anywhere. It does not exist. The accounts are overdrawn.

The government must therefore sink to both knees, extend an open hat… and borrow its trillion(s). Last year alone the United States national debt skyshot $4.5 trillion. The United States required 205 years to pile up $1 trillion of debt — but one year to heap on another $4.5 trillion of debt. That is, the work of two centuries is now completed in four months or less. Here is progress - of a highly peculiar and exotic fashion.

The Check’s in the Mail: No one expects the debt to be retired, of course. It is merely rolled over upon maturation. We learn... by way of Bloomberg... that nearly $8 trillion in federal debt will mature in this year 2021. $8 trillion is roughly 2/5th of the gross domestic product. But there is additional debt to consider. In all, over $10 trillion in debt may mature this year — roughly half the domestic product.

Old Daily Reckoning hand Simon Black: "As it turns out (according to Bloomberg) $8 TRILLION worth of government debt in the US will mature THIS YEAR alone." Plus, the Congressional Budget Office expects another $2+ trillion deficit this year due to more Covid stimulus.

So that’s potentially $10+ trillion worth of government debt that will need to be placed this year. That’s $300,000 per second. $300,000 per second! Can you imagine it?

The Fed To the Rescue: Who will take up the job? Who will swap in the debt? Mostly the Federal Reserve. The work will inflate its balance sheet beyond its present $7.3 trillion… to a dizzying $10 trillion. Simon says: "The only way they’ll realistically accomplish this is if the Federal Reserve ‘prints’ trillions of dollars of new money... most likely the Fed will need to print another $3+ trillion, pushing its balance sheet beyond the $10 trillion mark."

Consider: this balance sheet scarcely exceeded $4 trillion one year ago. But as government powers expand under the lash of emergency… the balance sheets of their central banks expand under the lash of emergency. Will the central bank of the United States shrink its balance sheet when the emergency lifts?

Fed Officials Float a Trial Balloon: Its officials begin to whisper... in very hushed tones... that it will announce a halt this year. Example: President of the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta branch, Mr. Raphael Bostic: “I am hopeful that in fairly short order we can start to recalibrate [QE].”Another example - Dallas Federal Reserve president Robert Steven Kaplan: “I don’t want to prejudge right now [...] when we’re going to [taper QE]. But I would hope it might be this year.”

Yet we are not convinced the Federal Reserve will “recalibrate” or “taper” this year — not to any marked degree.

Past Is Prologue: In December 2017, Mr. Powell threatened to keep running quantitative tightening on “auto-pilot.” The stock market yelled blue murder and took to open rebellion. Stocks endured a thumping “correction.” By the first week of January 2018, Wall Street had Mr. Powell back safely in its hands. The balance sheet was instantly expanding again. Will the stock market react differently next time the Federal Reserve proceeds against its balance sheet? And will the chairman of the Federal Reserve react differently to the stock market’s reaction? We harbor very strong suspicions. But we had best keep them dark... lest we call the man’s honor and dignity into question.

But the stock market should not fear. Today Mr. Powell put down the insurrectionists in his court…

It’ll Never Be the Right Time: Here he refers to interest rates: “When the time comes to raise interest rates, we’ll certainly do that, and that time, by the way, is no time soon.” “No time soon” is our estimate. We hazard he harbors the identical stance on balance sheet reduction. That is, no interest rate hikes anytime soon. No balance sheet drainings anytime soon. The right time will never arrive of course. As well yank away the crutches from a crippled man.

And how can a nation $27.8 trillion in debt - $80 trillion, factoring private debt - withstand a meaningful increase in interest rates? There are some questions that answer themselves. And so the Federal Reserve will keep the crutches in place.

Jerome Powell previously insisted his bunch will do “whatever it can for as long as it takes.” That is, more QE. More warfare upon the vestiges of free markets. More desperates lunges to stimulate the economy... “For as long as it takes.”

The beatings will continue until morale improves, that is. And we do not expect morale to improve anytime soon…"

- dailyreckoning.com

Musical Interlude: Mecano, "Hijo de la Luna"

Mecano, "Hijo de la Luna"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"How do clusters of galaxies form and evolve? To help find out, astronomers continue to study the second closest cluster of galaxies to Earth: the Fornax cluster, named for the southern constellation toward which most of its galaxies can be found. Although almost 20 times more distant than our neighboring Andromeda galaxy, Fornax is only about 10 percent further that the better known and more populated Virgo cluster of galaxies. 

Fornax has a well-defined central region that contains many galaxies, but is still evolving. It has other galaxy groupings that appear distinct and have yet to merge. Seen here, almost every yellowish splotch on the image is an elliptical galaxy in the Fornax cluster. The picturesque barred spiral galaxy NGC 1365 visible on the lower right is also a prominent Fornax cluster member."

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130111.html

Chet Raymo, “Time, Person, Year, Way…”

“Time, Person, Year, Way…”

by Chet Raymo

“According to the Concise Oxford English Dictionary, the 25 most used nouns in the English language are: time, person, year, way, day, thing, man, world, life, hand, part, child, eye, woman, place, work, week, case, point, government, company, number, group, problem, fact.

All very prosaic. Very workaday. Time leads the way, with year, day and week bucking up the calendar. Hand takes precedence over eye. Man, child, woman in her place. Case in point: government and company. Problem precedes fact. Work is always with us, of course; play is not to be found. Nothing in the list that reflects science or technology or the lofty ruminations of academics. More surprising, nothing that reflects religion. When it comes right down to it, it’s as the poet Rilke wrote in the Ninth Duino Elegy: “Perhaps we are here only to say: house, bridge, fountain, gate.”

“Praise this world to the Angel,” says Rilke. “Do not tell him the untellable…Show him some simple thing, refashioned by age after age, till it lives in our hands and eyes as a part of ourselves. Tell him things. He’ll stand more astonished.”

- https://www.sciencemusings.com/

The Poet: Wendell Berry, “The Peace of Wild Things”

“The Peace of Wild Things”

“When despair for the world grows in me

and I wake in the night at the least sound

in fear of what my life and my children’s lives may be,

I go and lie down where the wood drake

rests in his beauty on the water, and the great heron feeds.

I come into the peace of wild things

who do not tax their lives with forethought of grief. 

I come into the presence of still water.

And I feel above me the day-blind stars

waiting with their light. 

For a time I rest in the grace of the world, 

and am free…”

- Wendell Berry

Free Download: Dietrich Bonhoeffer, “Letters and Papers From Prison”

“The fact that the foolish person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent. In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with him as a person, but with slogans, catchwords, and the like that have taken possession of him. He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being. Having thus become a mindless tool, the foolish person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy human beings. “

Dietrich Bonhoeffer (Feb. 4, 1906 - April 9, 1945) was a Protestant Lutheran Pastor, theologian, and active in the German resistance to the policies of Hitler and Nazism. Due to his opposition to the Nazi regime, Bonhoeffer was arrested and executed at the Flossian concentration camp, during the last month of the war.

 - Dietrich Bonhoeffer, “Letters and Papers From Prison”

Freely download “Letters and Papers From Prison”, by Dietrich Bonhoeffer:

- https://ia801209.us.archive.org/29/

The Daily "Near You?"

Lalitpur, Nepal. Thanks for stopping by!

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 1/14/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 1/14/21"

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"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will

do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."

- John Maynard Keynes

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"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...

Only the consequences are real - to you!

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Gregory Mannarino, PM 1/14/21:

"Grand Deception. The Fed: PRIME OBJECTIVE- 

CREATE A SLAVE SOCIETY DEPENDENT ON THEM"

- https://traderschoice.net/

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"The more I see of the monied classes, 

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

CNN Market Data:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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A comprehensive, essential daily read.

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

Daily Updates, Jan 14th

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Daily Job Cuts

- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

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- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

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- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

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- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

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- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

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And now, the End Game...

"Depressing Stimulus"

"Depressing Stimulus"

By Bill Bonner

WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – "Hold onto your hats. Today, the president-elect will give us a measure of the catastrophe ahead. From The New York Times: "Biden Set to Call for Big Spending on Stimulus and Vaccines". "President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Thursday is expected to outline proposals for trillions of dollars in government spending to combat the coronavirus pandemic and its effects on the economy, with an initial focus on large-scale expansions of the nation’s vaccination program and virus testing capacity."

Brainwashed: In a modern democracy, the role of the citizen, after an appropriate period in the public schools, is to believe six impossible things before breakfast… and another six after tea. Tesla is worth $800 billion. Sure it is. Joe Biden is going to make America freer and more prosperous than ever – Sure he is! And how will he do it? With more stimulus, of course. Fortunately, your editor slept through his Civics 101 class… and missed the important lavage du cerveau that is critical for our government.

And here’s Chuck Schumer with a familiar message. From Bloomberg: "Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has pressed President-elect Joe Biden to propose more than $1.3 trillion in spending for his initial round of Covid-19 relief, according to a person familiar with the matter."

Relief? Hold on. Let’s set the record straight. The feds have no “relief” available to them. They are bust… broke… penniless. They bake no bread to offer the hungry. They weave no wool to clothe the naked. And they drive no nails to house the homeless. All they can do is hand out more fake money. How much “relief” that will bring is the subject of today’s ramble.

Modern Miracle: Imagine two guys shipwrecked on an island. One collects berries. The other gathers nuts. They trade with each other, keeping track with the money supply that was in their pockets when they washed up. Along comes a passing cruise ship. Well-meaning tourists, seeing the two men in rags, toss them money – enough to double their money supply. (For reference, the U.S. money supply – M1 – rose 70% last year.) Surely that stimulated their island’s economy, no? Each had more money to spend. But what difference did it make? None. The additional money didn’t help them find more nuts or collect more berries.

But just as medieval ecclesiastic scholars could explain the miracle of turning water into wine, so, too, can modern Ph.D. economists, Joe Biden, newspaper columnists, and indeed, the average New York Times subscriber, explain the magic of turning “printing press” money into real wealth. “Stimulus,” they say. The word rolls off the tongue and slides off the page. It conjures up an image of a man having a cup of coffee… looking at dirty pictures… or… facing a firing squad.

It suggests that with the proper encouragement, he might alter his behavior. He might put more spring in his step. He might work harder. He might take more chances with his time and his money; he might become more productive.

Aggressive Stimulation: That’s the theory… pathetic as it is. And how does it work out? We’re not even going to mention Zimbabwe, Venezuela, or Argentina… you know the story already. Besides, we know what you’re thinking: Those are “sh*thole” countries, as Donald Trump famously phrased it. America is different, isn’t it?

But impossible is impossible, no matter where you try to do it. And printing-press money causes disaster everywhere. The U.S. began resorting to the printing press in a major way following the crisis of 2008-2009. Since then, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet – a good measure of how much new money has been added – has grown from less than $900 billion to nearly $7.5 trillion. Never before had America “printed” so much or “stimulated” its economy so aggressively.

Lethargic Growth: And what happened? While the Fed added to the money supply at nearly 18% per year… real GDP – roughly measuring the exchange of goods and services in the U.S. economy – barely grew at a 1.3% annual rate. How did that compare to the previous 10 years?

Here’s the shocking thing. During those years, 1999 to 2008, the Fed “stimulated” at less than half the 2009-2020 rate… while the economy (as measured by GDP) grew twice as fast. In other words, “stimulus” made the U.S. economy more lethargic. Since the U.S. stepped up its stimulus efforts in 2008, the rate of wealth creation has been cut in half.So, Mr. Biden… More stimulus? Sure, why not."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"WOAH! $2400 For SSI, SSDI; $2000 + $600 Stimulus Check Update! $3600 For Families"

Wise Flys, "WOAH! $2400 For SSI, SSDI;

$2000 + $600 Stimulus Check Update! $3600 For Families"

2nd & 3rd Stimulus Check Updates. 

Up To $3600 Per Family With Kids Under 17

SSI & SSDI Stimulus Update. $2400 SS Increase Update

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Helpful Numbers:
• United States Capitol Switchboard (Senators): 202-224-3121
• IRS- 800-919-9835 & 800-829-1040
• HUD- 202-708-1112
• USDA National Hunger Hotline- 866-348-6479
• Assistance In Your Community- 211
• National Suicide Prevention Lifeline- 800-273-8255

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"$10,000 STIMULUS CHECK, SECOND STIMULUS CHECK 

& Biden Third Stimulus Check Package | MORNINGS LALATE"

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"Social Security, SSDI, SSI & VA - 

Will You Get The $1,400 Stimulus Check?"

"In this video, Matt discusses a commonly asked question, will Social Security retirement, Social Security disability, Social Security Survivors, SSI, VA, and our RB beneficiaries get the next stimulus check? We continue to come back on a daily basis with your stimulus check update, second stimulus check update, third stimulus check update, stimulus package Update, Stimulus Bill Update, Stimulus Proposal a Update, and the latest on stimulus. There have been a lot of questions lately regarding if Social Security, SSDI, SSI, VA, and our RB beneficiaries will receive the next stimulus check. Matth answers that exact question in this video, please be sure to share this video with your friends, family, social media and subscribe if you are new here! The Blind To Billionaire channel is dedicated to helping you through this time and giving you daily updates with everything going on."

"Don't Think You Can Escape..."

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impassible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” 

– Strauss & Howe, “The Fourth Turning”

Gregory Mannarino, "CRITICAL UPDATES: The Middle-Class WIPEOUT Just Kicked Into High Gear"

Gregory Mannarino, 

"CRITICAL UPDATES: 

The Middle-Class WIPEOUT Just Kicked Into High Gear"

- https://traderschoice.net/

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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

CNN Market Data:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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JAN 14, 2021 - 8:35: "Initial Jobless Claims Soars To Highest Since August Amid Illinois Chaos" "Despite ongoing government-enforced lockdowns and small business closures, analysts expected the number of Americans seeking first-time unemployment benefits to remain flat in the first week of 2021 (even after ADP and BLS showed big job losses), but, they were "surprised" when initial claims exploded higher. 965k Americans filed for first time jobless claims in the first week of 2021 - a massive jump from last week's 784k and well above expectations of a 789k rise."

"How It Really Is"

 

Free Download: Aldous Huxley, “Brave New World"

“O, wonder! How many goodly creatures are there here! 

How beauteous mankind is! 

O, brave new world, That has such people in't!”

- William Shakespeare, “The Tempest” (V, 1)

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“Till at last the child's mind is these suggestions, and the sum of the suggestions is the child's mind. And not the child's mind only. The adult's mind too - all his life long. The mind that judges and desires and decides - made up of these suggestions. But all these suggestions are our suggestions...” 

- “Brave New World: Suggestions from the State”

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Freely download “Brave New World", by Aldous Huxley here:

- https://fb2bookfree.com/uploads/files/

"Litany Against Fear"

"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. 

Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. 

I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. 

And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. 

Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. 

Only I will remain."

- Frank Herbert, 

"Dune", "Litany Against Fear"

Musical Interlude: Tom Clay, "What The World Needs Now"

"In this difficult day, in this difficult time for the United States, it is perhaps well to ask what kind of a nation we are and what direction we want to move in. You can be filled with bitterness, with hatred, and a desire for revenge. We can move in that direction as a country, in great polarization and filled with hatred toward one another. Or we can make an effort to understand and to comprehend, and to replace that violence, that stain of bloodshed that has spread across our land, with an effort to understand with compassion and love. What we need in the United States is not division; what we need in the United States is not hatred; what we need in the United States is not violence or lawlessness; but love and wisdom, and compassion toward one another, and a feeling of justice toward those who still suffer within our country, whether they be white or they be black." 

- Robert F. Kennedy on the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr.

"What The World Needs Now"

by Tom Clay

"Detroit DJ brought this out early in 1973 and it was seen as 

a celebration of the message behind that spread

by John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr. and Bobby Kennedy."

Must Watch! “Brace Yourself For The New Great Depression; U.S. Facing Income Crisis; Gold/Silver - You Need Them”

Jeremiah Babe,

“Brace Yourself For The New Great Depression; 

U.S. Facing Income Crisis; Gold/Silver - You Need Them”

Musical Interlude: Moby, "Why Does My Heart Feel So Bad?"

Original: 

Moby, "Why Does My Heart Feel So Bad?"

"He'll open doors..."

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Moby, "Why Does My Heart Feel So Bad (Ben-E.dit)"

Full screen highly recommended.

"A Look to the Heavens"

“M13 is one of the most prominent and best known globular clusters. Visible with binoculars in the constellation of Hercules, M13 is frequently one of the first objects found by curious sky gazers seeking celestials wonders beyond normal human vision. 

M13 is a colossal home to over 100,000 stars, spans over 150 light years across, lies over 20,000 light years distant, and is over 12 billion years old. At the 1974 dedication of Arecibo Observatory, a radio message about Earth was sent in the direction of M13. The featured image in HDR, taken through a small telescope, spans an angular size just larger than a full Moon, whereas the inset image, taken by Hubble Space Telescope, zooms in on the central 0.04 degrees.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap160727.html

"At This Point..."

“At this point I reveal myself in my true colors, as a stick-in-the-mud. I hold a number of beliefs that have been repudiated by the liveliest intellects of our time. I believe order is better than chaos, creation better than destruction. I prefer gentleness to violence, forgiveness to vendetta. On the whole I think that knowledge is preferable to ignorance, and I am sure that human sympathy is more valuable than ideology. I believe that in spite of the recent triumphs of science, men haven’t changed much in the last two thousand years; and in consequence we must try to learn from history. History is ourselves.

I believe in courtesy, the ritual by which we avoid hurting other people’s feelings, by satisfying our own egos. And I think we should remember that we are all part of a great whole, which for convenience we call nature. All living things are our brothers and sisters.”

- Kenneth Clark, “Civilization”

"What We Really Want..."

"Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time; 

what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better."

- Sydney J. Harris

"Here Comes the Pin"

"Here Comes the Pin"

by Brian Maher

"IT is drifting into view. Its outline is beginning to take shape... Yes, we can see it now, sharp and shiny - a pin - on a collision course with a bubble...The stock market bubble. What is propelling this pointy menace? When might it impact? Answers to follow. Let us first glance at the expanding blister it is bearing in on…

The day counted plus and minus - plus for the S&P and Nasdaq - minus for The Dow Jones. The S&P gained eight points. The Dow Jones lost eight points, washing away the S&P’s gain. But the Nasdaq tipped the board with a 56-point boost. And so there is somewhat more joy in heaven today. Gold, meantime, scratched out a gain of $3 and change. So much for today. Let us now train our vision on the approaching pin…

Euphoria: Citi’s “Panic/Euphoria” index has struck a record high. That is, market euphoria has struck a record high. Investors are dumbstruck and delirious, dizzied by trillions in Federal Reserve liquidity. Trees can indeed scrape the sky, growing under the nurturing influence of Jerome Powell’s hoses.

Dow 30,000? Why not. On to Dow 40,000. On to Dow 50,000. As a percentage of assets, investor equity holdings approach record heights. Meantime, our minions inform us these investors are buying up call options at record rates - that is, wagering on higher stock prices ahead. Pay no mind to today’s stratospheric valuations, they say. It is true, valuations approach those of the late 1990s — shortly before another pin found its mark.

The S&P’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio presently reads roughly 30... nearly double its historical average. hat is, history argues stocks are extravagant. But this time is different... shout the dumbstruck, delirious and dizzied...

Today’s ground-level interest rates justify today’s stratospheric valuations… and today’s skyscraping stock prices. Goldman - for example - claims stocks are no more expensive than 15 years ago. That is, stocks are no more expensive than in 2006. The bubble is a mirage, it concludes. Just so. But we would remind Goldman that a bubble was inflating in 2006. We would also remind Goldman that the market is not a study in mathematics. It cannot be captured in lines, bars or graphs.

The Elusive Markets: How do you represent fear on a chalkboard? Or greed? Markets are a study of psyches. Of emotions. And passions. They will not be reduced to numbers. As well attempt to reduce love to numbers... to translate Romeo and Juliet into a mathematics textbook... Or to plot a sonnet along an ‘x’ and ‘y’ axis... Or to express Nancy Pelosi’s hatred for Donald Trump through quadratic equations. It cannot be done.

Do you wish to comprehend markets? Look to the head, look to the heart, look to the glands. The head shrinker and the romance scribbler hold out far greater promise than the number cruncher. The head shrinker in particular has an easy diagnosis at present...

It’s Different This Time: Mr. Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice: "One does not have to dig too deeply to find evidence of the “psychology” driving the current stock market bubble. Speak with almost any retail investor, and you will hear a common refrain from “the Fed won’t like markets decline” to common justification catch-phrases like the “Fear Of Missing Out (F.O.M.O)” or “There Is No Alternative (T.I.N.A.)”...

Concludes Roberts: "It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now-famous words: “Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau.” This “time IS different.” However, “this time” is only different from the standpoint the variables are not the same as they have been previously. The variables never are. But the outcome is always the same. We must agree. The outcome is always the same. Only the variables differ.

So let us now turn to one variable that may “yield” the inevitable outcome - the bubble’s bursting. That is, let us identify the approaching pin…

Omens From the Bond Market: Today’s gorgeous stock prices are justified by low interest rates, say Wall Street’s drummers. They will remain justified so long as interest rates remain low. But have you glanced recently at the bond market?

10-year Treasury yields are on the jump. Below 0.90% in mid-December, yields have lurched to as of 1.18% yesterday. 1.18% is piddling by the standard of history. 10-year yields average 4.40% across time. But with markets - as with life - it is not so much where you are. It is where you are going. And yields are going up. That is largely because - we hazard - the bond market has caught a glimpse of approaching inflation... Not quantitative easing’s phantom inflation that only inflated stocks. But actual consumer price inflation.

The Kindling for an Inflationary Flame: The pandemic has turned out blizzards of spending… including the recent $900 billion “stimulus” package. The bond market spots additional spending ahead now that Democrats have seized all branches of government. The long-anticipated inflation may finally gurgle.

As we have explained prior, yields rise because inflation eats into a bond’s value as the termite eats into wood. Under inflation, a bond is a sawdust asset. Bond holders therefore demand a higher yield to compensate them for the termite’s ravages, for inflation’s ravages. Thus we have our pin: Rising interest rates.

Again, we are told today’s vanishingly small interest rates warrant today’s obscenely high stock levels. What then can you expect when interest rates rise? That is correct. You can expect stocks to plunge - at least you should expect stocks to plunge (we have cried false alarms before). But what is the interest rate that could topple the stock market? 3%... 2.5%... perhaps 2%? Recall, the 10-year Treasury presently yields 1.18%.

(How bad is the global debt problem? Holter says, “I’ll just give you just one number. Global debt is now $273 trillion. In the 2008-2009 debt crisis, global debt was about half that. (Most ominous of all are the, "best guess", $2.4 QUADRILLION in global derivatives. - CP) With that $273 trillion in debt, can interest rates ever go up? They cannot allow interest rates to ever go up. They can never taper balance sheets. They have to put their foot on the accelerator and push it through the floorboard to keep this thing alive. That debt has to be serviced.”")

When the Pin Strikes the Bubble: We turn to SocGen's Albert Edwards for the possible answer: "We all understood in 2018 (and we still know now) just how dependent this equity bull market is on low bond yields… But back then, with the S&P just shy of 3000 and much more moderate multiples than today it took a rise in 10y bond yields above 3% to ‘break’ the bull run. Now with the U.S. tech sector on a forward PE close to 30x (vs 20x back in Q4 2018), it will clearly take a lot less to break the equity market and trigger the bursting of this bubble."

What then is the bubble-popping figure? I don’t believe there is a cat in hell’s chance that... U.S. 10y yields can rise to 1.5%. The equity market bubble will burst long before we get there! 10-year Treasury yields are within range of 1.5%. That is, the stock market is presently within range of the prickly pin. When that pin strikes - if it strikes - we do not know. Again, we have yelled wolf before. But you may wish to keep a weather eye on 10-year Treasury yields..."

- dailyreckoning.com

Gregory Mannarino, "Bitcoin Going To 50K Shortly. Stock Market To SKYROCKET. Debt To HYPER-BALLOON"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 1/13/21:

"Bitcoin Going To 50K Shortly. 

Stock Market To SKYROCKET. Debt To HYPER-BALLOON"

- https://traderschoice.net/

The Daily "Near You?"

Mustang, Oklahoma, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Robert Frost, "Four Preludes on Playthings of the Wind"

"Four Preludes on Playthings of the Wind"

“The past is a bucket of ashes.”

1

The Woman named To-morrow

sits with a hairpin in her teeth

and takes her time

and does her hair the way she wants it

and fastens at last the last braid and coil

and puts the hairpin where it belongs

and turns and drawls: Well, what of it?

My grandmother, Yesterday, is gone.

What of it? Let the dead be dead.

2

The doors were cedar

and the panels strips of gold

and the girls were golden girls

and the panels read and the girls chanted:

We are the greatest city,

the greatest nation:

nothing like us ever was.

The doors are twisted on broken hinges.

Sheets of rain swish through on the wind

where the golden girls ran and the panels read:

We are the greatest city,

the greatest nation,

nothing like us ever was.

3

It has happened before.

Strong men put up a city and got

a nation together,

And paid singers to sing and women

to warble: We are the greatest city,

the greatest nation,

nothing like us ever was.

And while the singers sang

and the strong men listened

and paid the singers well

and felt good about it all,

there were rats and lizards who listened

… and the only listeners left now

… are … the rats … and the lizards.

And there are black crows

crying, “Caw, caw,”

bringing mud and sticks

building a nest

over the words carved

on the doors where the panels were cedar

and the strips on the panels were gold

and the golden girls came singing:

We are the greatest city,

the greatest nation:

nothing like us ever was.

The only singers now are crows crying, “Caw, caw,”

And the sheets of rain whine in the wind and doorways.

And the only listeners now are … the rats … and the lizards.

4

The feet of the rats

scribble on the door sills;

the hieroglyphs of the rat footprints

chatter the pedigrees of the rats

and babble of the blood

and gabble of the breed

of the grandfathers and the great-grandfathers

of the rats.

And the wind shifts

and the dust on a door sill shifts

and even the writing of the rat footprints

tells us nothing, nothing at all

about the greatest city, the greatest nation

where the strong men listened

and the women warbled: Nothing like us ever was.

- Robert Frost

"Opening the Gates of Hell"

Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here

"Opening the Gates of Hell"

by Bill Bonner

"Some things are possible. Some are impossible. 

And some are just stupid."

– Bill Bonner

WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – "Somewhere in this once-great nation, a real revolutionary – young, angry, determined, and smart – practices before the mirror… searching for the right pose… looking for the right words…to express the outrage of those left behind, forgotten, dissed, and used by a corrupt elite. And sometime in the future, his hour come ’round at last, this Lenin will slouch towards Washington…But the feds… the elite… the Deep State… will be ready for him. They’ll just shut down his Facebook account!

More Stimulus: Today, we look at how distant dots connect. MarketWatch signals that more stimulus is coming: "Already spent your $600 stimulus check? Another one may soon be on its way."

The amazing thing about this “relief” program is that it already surpasses the actual damage caused in the U.S. by the coronavirus lockdowns – by as much as 10 times! The loss of GDP caused by the COVID-19 shutdowns and associated recession is said to be about 3%… or less than $600 billion. The stimulus used by the feds to offset the losses, however, has already toted to some $2 trillion for the CARES Act… and about $3 trillion in additional Federal Reserve money-printing. (There is considerable overlap in those numbers… and it’s hard to pin down the exact cost. Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow said the total was $6 trillion.)

So, you have to ask yourself… how is this possible?

Something for Nothing: A woman goes to the hospital to have her appendix removed. The surgeon takes out her appendix. But then, in the spirit of generosity, he takes out her gallbladder, her left lung, and a kidney, too. You take your daughter to the pet store to buy a puppy. You come home with a puppy, a kitten, a hamster, and a boa constrictor. And now… thanks to the new Democrat leadership in Congress… they’re going to give you a pet jackass, too.

Says Joe Biden: "The debate over $2,000 isn’t some abstract debate in Washington. It’s about real lives, your lives. If you’re like millions of Americans all across this country, you need the money, you need the help, and you need it now."

Never Better: Remarkably, for a Plague Year, most American households and businesses don’t need the money more than ever before. Average family finances were never better. Americans made about $1 trillion more in 2020 than in the year before. People without jobs got state unemployment… and then a supplement from the federal government. Many ended up with more money than they made when they were on the job. Some got twice as much.

Those still collecting paychecks did well, too. Gone was the cost of commuting to work, including gas and parking fees. No more lunches at the diner. No more going out to restaurants, either. Or to the movies. Or on vacation. The cost of living, generally, went down… while income remained steady.

Pernicious Rot: To add to the financial comfort of America’s households, the Fed continued to push down interest rates. Overall, the typical family may have saved as much as $2,000 during the year… thanks to the lower borrowing costs. Mortgage interest rates, for example, fell a full 100 basis points, from 3.5% in January 2020 to barely 2.5% today. On a $200,000 mortgage, that’s a saving of about $108 per month. And recently, some companies advertised 30-year mortgages at only 2.3%.

And here, the pernicious rot sets in. The person who could previously only afford a $300,000 house is now shopping for bigger digs. And the builders are cranked up to provide it. They use up real resources – labor… copper… fuel… wood… and don’t forget the marble countertops! – building houses for people who can’t really afford them. And then, when interest rates rise… what will happen? At “normal” rates, the fellow could only afford half of the house. If rates go much higher, he won’t even be able to afford the basement. Who will take the loss? The homeowner? The mortgage finance company? Nobody?

Why Stop There? Once an economy depends on printing-press money, it is doomed. Like gangrene, the counterfeit money rots one sector after another. Yes, it could be stopped. But who wants to cut off his own hand? And today, all across the country, nostrils flare at the faint odor of another $2,000 in federal giveaways headed their way.

Only a few years ago, they would have thought it impossible. Where would the money come from? Why would the feds give it away? Aren’t they already running a deficit? The CollaborativeHouse.com explains: "People love money. And once a new kind of stimulus money is tasted it becomes a permanent feature of how every subsequent downturn is handled."

In 1930, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon said, “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system.” In 2020, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said, “We have a lot of money. We need to get that money in Americans’ hands.”

And if the feds have so much money… why stop there? Why should we pay rents and mortgages? Surely the feds can make them go away? Why do we pay for college tuition? Why do we pay medical costs? Why do we have to work? Why don’t the feds give us a permanent stimulus… a Universal Basic Income (UBI)?

Nothing Is Impossible: History will show that it was not just the gates of the Capitol that were breached in 2021. More important, the gates in front of the “impossible” were thrown open. Now, people take for granted what they used to take for absurd.

Why should we honor the Constitution? It was written more than two centuries ago. And why should we protect private property? Is it fair that some have so much and others so little? And how come one man gets a pretty, young wife, while others suffer with old crones?

Now, a better world is possible… finally correcting the injustices, unfairnesses, and bad luck of the past. And from now on, we will all speak Swedish and wear our underwear on the outside so our rulers can see that it is clean. Once the vanguard has stormed into impossibility, a real revolution cannot be far behind."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

Greg Hunter, "Expect the System to Go Down"

"Expect the System to Go Down"

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter says be prepared for major financial instability. Holter contends, “This is the biggest financial bubble in all of history by far, by orders of magnitude. So, it doesn’t matter who is running the show, the wheels are going to fall off. The question in my mind is whether it’s going to go down under the rule of law or not under the rule of law. Under a Left regime, there is a rule of law for everyone else and no rule of law for them.”

How bad is the global debt problem? Holter says, “I’ll just give you just one number. Global debt is now $273 trillion. (In the 2008-2009 debt crisis, global debt was about half that. Most ominous of all are the, "best guess", $2.4 QUADRILLION in global derivatives.) With that $273 trillion in debt, can interest rates ever go up? They cannot allow interest rates to ever go up. They can never taper balance sheets. They have to put their foot on the accelerator and push it through the floorboard to keep this thing alive. That debt has to be serviced.”

What’s going to happen to gold? The price is going way up. Holter says, “If you divide the U.S. national debt by the amount of ounces the U.S. Treasury says it holds, you get an astounding $100,000 per ounce price for gold.”

Holter says, “Get solar panels, generators or whatever. Put back some food. Expect the system to go down because, mathematically, it is going to go down. You also want to protect yourself financially by getting out of the system and become your own central bank. In other words, store your own savings. Don’t rely on your brokerage account. What happens when the markets don’t open? What happens when your brokerage goes out of business or goes bankrupt? Now, you are going to be tied up for three to five years. Just become as insulated as you can.”

- https://usawatchdog.com/

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he

 goes One-on-One with Bill Holter of JSMineset.com.

"How It Really Is"