"Russia, Ukraine, and the Battle for the World Order"

"Russia, Ukraine, and the Battle for the World Order"

by Nick Giambruno

"The rules-based international order…The liberal international order…The international community… You undoubtedly have heard the media and politicians use these strange and vague phrases. They are describing the current world order or architecture for international political relations between countries.

World orders are nothing new. It’s how the big global powers have set the rules of the game for centuries. On a smaller scale, it’s similar to when the most powerful criminal groups in a given city - like mafias and street gangs - come together and agree on how to divide their activities and neighborhoods among themselves. Sooner or later, though, these agreements always break down. Then, there is a violent power struggle until the criminal groups reach a new agreement that reflects the new balance of power.

A similar dynamic is at play with the most powerful countries and world orders. Wars among the most powerful countries typically lead to a breakdown and restructuring in the world order. Here is a brief overview of some of the most recent world orders. You can think of them as epochs or distinctive periods in history.

The Current US-Led World Order (1945 to Today): The Allies crafted the current world order in the aftermath of WWII with the US as the leader. It features institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund—all of which are in the US. While the US is dominant, the other two large powers—Russia and China—have seats at the table.

Treaty of Versailles (1919 to 1939): The victors of WWI created this world order, which featured institutions like the League of Nations. It broke down after Germany and Japan tried to make their own world order during WWII.

Congress of Vienna (1814 to 1914): The military defeat of French Emperor Napoleon I led to this world order. It enshrined the British as the dominant global power. The Congress of Vienna formed the basis for European international politics until the outbreak of WWI in 1914.

The US-Led World Order is Getting Shaky: The godfather of geopolitical theory was British strategist Sir Halford Mackinder. Mackinder developed a general theory that connected geography with global power. Today, military strategists in the US, Russia, and China study his teachings. Mackinder argued that dominating the Eurasian landmass - Asia and Europe together - was the key to being the leading global power.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the renowned American geopolitical strategist, echoed Mackinder on the importance of Eurasia in his book "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives." "Ever since the continents started interacting politically, some five hundred years ago, Eurasia has been the center of world power. A power that dominates 'Eurasia' would control two of the world's three most advanced and economically productive regions… rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world's central continent. About 75% of the world's people live in 'Eurasia,' and most of the world's physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. 'Eurasia' accounts for about three-fourths of the world's known energy resources."

A single power or coalition that controls the resources of Eurasia would be an unstoppable global superpower… one that could credibly challenge and potentially upend the current US-led world order. For decades, preventing that from happening has been the central - but largely unspoken - goal of US geopolitical strategy. This is the Big Picture context that we should view recent and more historical events in - NATO expansion, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the rise of China, etc.

The primary Eurasian geopolitical challengers to the US-led world order are Russia, China, and to a lesser degree Iran. While they resent US dominance, Russia and China have a seat at the table in the current world order. They have permanent seats at the UN Security Council and are members of core international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO, and so forth. Russia and China are also onboard with the horrible global agendas for Covid restrictions, vaccine passports, digital identities, social credit systems, and central bank digital currencies.

That’s why, at this point, it doesn't seem that Russia and China want to flip the board and create their own world order - as Germany and Japan tried to do during WWII. Instead, they seem to want to work within the current global order to give themselves a bigger seat at the table. Whether they can manage that balancing act without triggering a war with the US is the $64,000 question.

Here is one sure thing. The US is bungling the big picture geopolitical strategy. From the US perspective, the optimal strategy would be to pit Russia and China against each other. Instead, US actions are pushing China and Russia closer together, which creates a credible challenge to the US-led order.

Here's the bottom line. We are approaching the end of an era. The current world order is getting shaky and could soon fall apart. There is already a dangerous power struggle going on right now, and it could turn catastrophic if it comes to an open war between the big powers.

I'm not trying to be a referee and say who the good and bad guys are. Frankly, I think they are all bad guys, not unlike a collection of crime families dividing up the spoils of a given city.

I’m just trying to objectively describe the Big Picture so I can make better-informed decisions in what could be the most volatile time in anyone’s life. We're on the cusp of the most significant changes in money and finance in world history… Yet few people are aware of what is happening. And even fewer know how to prepare."

- internationalman.com

"Opening Salvos Thrown, What Are Putin’s Next Steps In Ukraine?"

"Opening Salvos Thrown, 

What Are Putin’s Next Steps In Ukraine?"

by Tom Luongo

"Last week I wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin rewrote the rules for the geopolitical game board. A week into his campaign to officially “demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine” it’s clear to me that Putin’s ambitions lie far beyond this stated goal. He will, however, stick to that script until that part of the campaign is complete.

Today I want to start outlining where we go next and to do that we have to describe where we are. Looking around the reports that are the most credible (and properly bracketing for any partisanship) we are staring at a complete, effective neutralization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to hold any of the ethnically-dominant areas of Ukraine.

In a post for my patrons on February 25th, responding to an excellent article by Alistair MacLeod I wrote the following: "MacLeod: Both sides probably do not know how fragile the Eurozone banking system is, with both the ECB and its national central bank shareholders already having liabilities greater than their assets. In other words, rising interest rates have broken the euro system and an economic and financial catastrophe on its eastern flank will probably trigger its collapse.

I’ve been banging my shoe on this table for 3 years now. If the US/NATO respond with some kind of guerilla war here to hang Ukraine like an albatross around Putin’s neck, as we should expect, then Europe is in big trouble financially. Because the financial war will keep escalating as Putin responds militarily. Remember, he’s openly threatened the ‘decision makers’ here. And no amount of mealy-mouthed CIA/MI6 disinformation will deter him from action anymore."

This is always what I meant by “spooks start civil wars, militaries end them.” There is no more War for Ukraine. I still believe that. This isn’t a war for Ukraine, it’s a war for the future of the entire world. Ukraine represents the hill both Davos and Russia have chosen to live or die on.

The Afghanistan Gambit: Davos has refused to let President Zelensky surrender because if he does then legally there is no more war to sanction Russia with. It’s not Putin’s War at that point, it is a settled conflict and terms negotiated. At that point what’s left of Ukraine can be carved up into pieces. It’s way to early for that to occur, so you’ll see constant threats of peace talks, but that’s only to assuage the fears of the capital markets, which is where Davos has the most control over the situation.

The primary goal of the information war from the West is to push capital markets as far in its favor as possible, keeping things within the bounds of the ‘acceptable’ to avoid any short-term pain. Gold is still under it’s all-time high, which is just hilarious. That said, in that same post I put up this map of a future Ukraine which I felt, conservatively, would be in effect by the end of this year. Events are moving far faster than that, however.

Chernihiv and Sumy are also in play, as is Lviv as a bargaining chip to Poland. As Fmr. Col. Douglas Macgregor pointed out on Fox News recently, everything east of the Dnieper River will become part of a new Novorussia, if not part of the Russian Federation.

Clearly this is Putin’s initial goal, the partitioning of Ukraine. He’s moved militarily, the EU and the rest of the West have responded financially. Their hope is to turn Ukraine into a quagmire, a la Afghanistan (per Hillary Clinton’s recent remarks), which they hope Russia will not be able to sustain after being choked off from the global economy.

The financial sanctions regime put in place so far are brutal but also full of holes wide enough for Putin to maneuver within and around because of the well understood facts of Russia’s dominance as a global supplier of life-sustaining commodities for the entire world.

This is an asymmetric war. There isn’t much farther the West can go financially. They’ve seized Bank of Russia foreign assets, for pity’s sake. What other weapons do they really have in their arsenal which can threaten Russia with? They have, in effect, executed their nuclear first strike against Russia. Once you’ve gone nuclear, where do you go next? Real nukes? Yes, that’s a possibility, sadly, given the people we’re talking about.

On the other hand, Russia has so far only committed the necessary troops to neutralize Ukraine. So, in this respect, big advantage Russia. Facts on the ground are facts. Russia has taken territory it can maintain. By not targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure, Russia has put itself in a very good position to not face an insane insurgency which the West can finance in the way that it has in past conflicts.

Much of NATO’s in-country assets have been neutralized. And you know this because the propaganda and rhetoric have been so thoroughly crude, cartoonish and strident. Again, ask why the financial and informational war has been so intense?

Is it because the West thinks it’s winning or because it’s trying desperately to pivot domestic populations to solidarity after losing massive credibility during the last year with COVID-19 related lockdowns, vax passes, and the unpersoning of whole swaths of Western society?

The Real Russian Cauldron: Now let’s ask the next question that keeps coming up. Why has Putin not shut off the gas to a Europe that is rapidly running out of it? Because to do so would target civilian populations. If he’s not targeting civilians in Ukraine to minimize their anger at being invaded, then why would he use that weapon now against civilians in Germany who hold the key to getting overthrowing the insane politicians and oligarchs who provoked this war in the first place?

It doesn’t make any strategic sense. It also speaks to a kind of confidence in Russia’s military position in Ukraine, thereby lending credence to the reports that Russia is achieving her strategic goals on the ground in Ukraine.

Okay, that’s the lay of the land. So, what are Putin’s real goals? Like I said at the outset, nothing less than breaking the back of Davos and their agents in the US/UK who have tormented Russia for more than a century.

How does he achieve that goal? Putin is creating incontrovertible facts which his opponents must respond to. Again, he’s setting the operational tempo, like I said last week. Their counter-moves are insipid and predictable. Ukraine has asked for admission into the EU. The EU is open to this. Georgia is now doing the same thing. Turkey is livid. Hungary is not getting involved. No one is willing to actually send arms to Ukraine.

What does the EU achieve by adding Ukraine? Do they think because they signed a piece of paper with a person who is de facto not in charge of his country going to change the facts on the ground there? Do they still think “stroke of the pen, law of the land, kinda cool” matters at this point? Because if the EU accepts Ukraine into its ranks, then it will be responsible for the next stage of escalation, not Putin. It will then have to figure out how to oust the Russians from their territory.

Last night President Sundowner made the entire US State of the Union about Ukraine. Do they really think a president with an approval rating that is, at best 37%, capable of marshalling the US into fighting a war for Europe against Russia after bankrupting us with NATO for three generations? If they are, they are more delusional than even I’ve contemplated at this point.

Is NATO prepared to expand now into Ukraine under the umbrella of EU membership? What’s obvious to me is the neocons and neoliberals controlling the West think they can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Putin, but what if Putin thinks he can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for them?

Russia is not capable of conquering Europe. But he doesn’t need to to defeat them. He just needs to create a version of the map I posted above.

The Limits of Money Wars: If Putin and Russia have achieved, or are about to achieve, all of their military goals in Ukraine, what do they do to secure those gains? They have to neutralize the financial war waged against them and create an environment where Europe spends money it doesn’t have, with failing political capital domestically, and bankrupts them completely. And the first move along those lines was just announced by the Russian Finance Ministry today (VPN and Deepl translator needed).

What does this mean? It means simply that Russia has now, in effect, begun the remonetization of gold for domestic purposes. By removing the VAT on gold purchases Russian citizens can now offset their currency risk with gold and stabilize the domestic monetary situation.

The first step in offsetting financial warfare from the West is allowing the domestic population to be immune to collapses in their currency from foreign actors pulling capital out of the country. Companies doing international business now have an alternative to hold time deposits which are far less volatile than the ruble without penalty. Gold becomes the coin of Russia’s international business.

It’s the beginning of the process of draining physical gold from the global market and control over its price by the ponzi schemes that are the COMEX and the LBMA. This is a first step in rebuilding confidence in the Russian banking system rather than what we’re seeing in the West which is the ritualistic assault on privacy, wealth generation and the value of our labor, which is degrading rapidly thanks to inflation, which will rage from here as all energy and commodity markets are scared to death of Davos’ financial war on Russia.

As Luke Gromen pointed out on Twitter this is the big signal that the petrodollar system is headed for the ashbin of history. With the global oil market in a complete state of shock as no one wants to run afoul of US and/or EU sanctions on Russian energy, the price of oil here potentially goes parabolic. At that point reality hits the money masters squarely in the face.

Those that brave the waters will get their oil at a steep discount, those that don’t will pay through the nose, further accelerating the decline of those economies as inflation spirals out of control and the people put the blame, not on Putin, but on the people in charge.

Moreover, Russia has kept the gas flows going to ensure that money keeps flowing into the country to finance further expansion of its gold reserves. The current shock will abate. Russia is not Iran. It can insure its own tanker fleet. It can deliver the oil. If Iran could survive what Trump did to them, Russia can thrive under this new regime, changing the entire flow of capital around the world.

Now, I want to turn your attention to the other news of which further corroborates that Davos and Europe are trapped. FOMC Chair Jerome Powell testified today telling the world that the Fed will still hike 25 basis points in March. Bullard came out and said the Fed has to withdraw accommodation to maintain its credibility. Further Powell blamed both the Fed and Congress for inflation. It’s a result of too much spending. Powell even floated the idea that the world can have more than one reserve currency (!!). Meanwhile Biden is talking about bringing back Build Back Better and sending us down the road to financial ruin.

The fight between Davos and the Fed, which I identified last summer is real, folks. That leaves a belligerent yet impotent Europe caught between the Scylla of a Fed drying up the global supply of dollars and the Carbides of a Russian military capable of withstanding anything Europe throws at them if the US doesn’t get involved, i.e. this doesn’t go nuclear.

NATO isn’t getting involved in Ukraine even if Ukraine becomes an EU member. They can have the landlocked rump of what’s left over. If Putin is smart, which he is, he will offer the Poles Lviv and Hungary Transcarpathia. The EU gets the dregs.

It’s clear from the wailing and gnashing of the Neocon/Neolibs that they want Putin Milosevic’d for daring to put them in this position. They still dream of overthrowing him. It’s also clear that there are a lot of people who are not down with the willful destruction of the current global economy within the upper reaches of US policy makers and European corporate boards.

This is the real fight for the future and if Davos thinks extreme demand destruction will be tolerated for any length of time over a regional conflict like Ukraine because it’s their ox being gored, then this war, while still raging is, in effect, already over."

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

"The Cold War is Back and It’s Coming to a City Near You"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 3/3/22:

"The Cold War is Back and It’s Coming to a City Near You"

"The Conflict has made commodity prices soar. We have seen nothing yet. This is going to affect every single person and every industry around the World. It will cost more for absolutely everything."

"Zero-Sum Games"

"Zero-Sum Games"

by Bill Bonner

"The surest way to ruin a nation is to debauch its currency."

~ Vladimir Lenin

Buenos Aires, Argentina - "The first thing we noticed were the zeros. Where did they get so many of them? Imports from Venezuela? We don’t know. But we’d like to own the company that makes them. When we first came to Argentina more than 20 years ago, a trip from the airport into town was about 35 pesos. Now it is 7,600. Every whole number is followed by at least one zero… and usually a whole line of them. A digit without a zero is worthless, since it takes at least 10 pesos to equal half a US penny.

How do you destroy a country… ruin its economy… impoverish its people… and corrupt every institution in the nation? Just add zeros.

Yesterday we wondered about how cutting Russians (and many others too) off from their money might blow up in our faces. Today, the Washington Post wonders too: "One former Obama administration official that worked on sanctions, who agreed to talk on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, said the scale of the restrictions on Russia has been so huge and unprecedented - so its knock-on impact could be huge and unprecedented, too. The former official noted that Russia’s central bank, which had its assets frozen by the United States in a Rubicon-crossing move, had more assets than the entire economic output of Iran."

Yes, the “shock and awe” financial attack is having an effect. Oil trades at over $112 a barrel. And Sberbank, the largest bank in Russia, swirled closer to the drain yesterday. The stock trades at only 90 cents, down from $20 in October. But what did Sberbank shareholders do wrong? Why are they being punished?

A large Russian stock fund, based in London, in which we have a small investment, sent out a notice; if we wanted to get our money out, it said, we can go fish. It’s too late. Trading has been halted. We don’t know what our investments are worth (probably not much) and we can’t sell them anyway.

Debauching the Dollar: US markets, meanwhile, rallied; investors were said to be buoyed up by the latest news. As expected, Jerome Powell, Fed Chief, told the world that he is getting serious about whipping inflation now. He’s calling up a platoon of very mean girl scouts to lead the charge. Fox: "With inflation well above 2% and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month," Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, saying that he is "inclined to propose and support a 25 basis point rate hike" at the Fed's March 15-16 gathering."

Is he kidding? A quarter point increase? That will bring the Fed’s key rate to about MINUS 7%. Is this ‘tightening?’ Of course not. Powell is not fighting inflation; he is enabling it. And he’s debauching the dollar, not the ruble; he’s ruining the US, not Russia. (Russia’s central bank is lending money at 20% interest!)

Once again, the elite – media, experts, universities, politicians, Wall Street – line up like zeros behind the feds… as they have every time this century. Yes, there were ‘weapons of mass destruction’ in Iraq in 2003. Uh huh... no question about it. Yes, in 2008, ‘we may not even have an economy on Monday.’ Sure. If Ben Bernanke says so. And yes again in 2020; ‘shut down the economy or the Covid will kill us all.’

Now… Putin has a devil’s tail, the press reports. He’s a ‘killer.’ And yet, it was only 10 or so years ago that the media celebrated Mr. Obama because he approved the ‘kill list,’ himself. Apparently, he – along with George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump – were good killers. Mr. Putin is a bad killer. Sure, whatever.

But there are always more dots to connect. And now we have a new war… a new enemy… and a new reason to print money! Up until fairly recently, the misdeeds of politicians were settled in political ways – by bullets, ballots, bombs, backstabbing etc – directed at the malefactors themselves. “The best form of government is monarchy,” said Voltaire, “with an occasional assassination.” But this time US authorities are using ‘soft power.’ No assassinations. No bombing. No killing. Just stealing.

Soft Bombs: Led by the US, the busybodies take aim not at the people who squander wealth, politicians and the military/industrial/surveillance industries, but at the people who produce wealth – consumers… banks… manufacturers… and raw material producers. (For purely selfish reasons, they have spared the energy companies… but subjected them to severe collateral damage. Gazprom, for example, one of Russia’s state-owned energy producers, has watched its stock fall from $10 a month ago to just $2 this morning.)

By sending troops to the Ukraine, Mr. Putin has violated the ‘rule of law,’ sayeth the papers and the politicians. In retaliation, sanctions have been imposed. People with money in Russia cannot get it. Russians cannot get their money from abroad. Russian companies cannot sell their products. Western consumers cannot buy them.

By long standing convention, the rule of law requires certain procedures before a ‘taking’ can occur. You must be charged with a crime. You are entitled to a swift and fair trial. Only then, should the judgment go against you, is your punishment meted out. But here, billions of dollars have been taken away, sequestered, or lost because of the sanctions. What was the charge? Where was the jury? Did we miss something?

Thousands of innocents – businesses, households, investors who had nothing to do with Russian politics or the invasion of the Ukraine – have had something taken away from them without due process. Where was the rule of law?

We raise the issue not out of a sense of counterfeit moral outrage; there’s plenty of that already. We’re just trying to connect the dots. And it looks as though the sanctions – like America’s other misbegotten wars of the 21st century – could do more harm to itself than to the Kremlin.

The soft bombs don’t fall on Putin or his army. Instead, they explode on key elements of our own prosperity – energy, money and commerce. Cutting off trade with Russia puts supplies of energy and essential raw materials in jeopardy. Imposing sanctions on the Russian economy takes wealth from innocent people without due process. And by ‘weaponizing’ its own money, the world sees that the dollar can no longer be trusted.

Here at BPR, we don’t pretend to have any real idea where this will lead. Our high-probability hunch is that we’ll end up with a lot more zeros. And tomorrow, we’ll deepen our wondering… Are we entering a New Era, where energy will be hard to come by, you can’t trust the money, and you can’t depend on the rule of law? What kind of world is that? Stay tuned..."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

Gregory Mannarino, "Be Ready For Anything! Food And Energy Shortages, Another 'Crisis'"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/3/22:

"Be Ready For Anything! 

Food And Energy Shortages, Another 'Crisis'"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"How Bad Is Putin? Ask the Devil"

"How Bad Is Putin? Ask the Devil"

By Brian Maher

"We monitor both “conservative” and “liberal” news media. Not to learn, but to laugh - and to observe. To observe, that is, the political mind in operation…

If one political mind argues “X,” the opposing political mind must argue “Y.” If one political mind argues “Y,” the opposing political mind must argue “X”- or perhaps “Z.” Yet this past week both conservative and liberal minds have dissolved into one. That is, both sides agree that the year is not 2022 - but 1938. Both conservative and liberal establishments insist Mr. Putin is a 21st-century Hitler, a modern berserker, a murderer of Western civilization. The Russian authoritarian will not settle for Ukraine, they yell. Poland will fill his sights tomorrow, the Baltic states the day after tomorrow… and all of Europe the day after next.

Yet is Mr. Putin the incarnated soul of Herr Hitler? Or is he merely the clear-eyed champion of his nation’s interests? Let the record reflect it at once - we are not with the Russian strongman. Ukrainian blood - and Russian blood - will forever stain his hands He cannot rinse it away.

Yet - yet - we suspect the media are handing us half a story. We would like the whole story. We would prefer some semblance of balance. And so today we summon, from the infernal realms, advocatus diaboli - the devil’s advocate. Below, you will find a dialogue between a mainstream spokesman and the devil’s advocate. Read on.

Does Mr. Putin bear sole responsibility for Ukraine’s war? Does he harbor authentic grievances?

Mainstream Spokesman: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a severe breach of international law and a crime against humanity. He is a ruthless thug.

Advocatus Diaboli: It is true - the fellow is a ruthless thug - and plenty more. I can assure you the Boss has space set aside for him once he pays his debt to nature. He has a reservation, so to speak. Yet I would caution you Americans about invoking international law. Your observance of international law - so-called - can be rather… selective.

Under which international law did your United States invade Panama in 1989 or Iraq in 2003? Under which international law did you oust Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi in 2011? Or, for the matter of that, under which international law do American soldiers presently occupy the sovereign nation of Syria? Russian troops are also there, it is true. But Putin was invited in by the Syrian government. Where was your invitation?

Mainstream Spokesman: That’s ridiculous. These were evil regimes that killed their own people and threatened their neighbors. They were bad guys. We liberate oppressed peoples. We’re the good guys.

Advocatus Diaboli: Let us assume - arguendo - that you are the good guys. And compared with the Saddam Husseins of your world, you certainly are. But it strikes me as rather hypocritical that you cite international law only when it suits you. I’d rather you simply admit that you are willing to overlook international law when freedom and democracy are on the line. That would at least be more honest.

Mainstream Spokesman: Oh, please. Don’t compare our attempts to spread freedom and democracy to Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Putin hates democracy, as all dictators do. As the world’s leading democracy, we must support democratic values. The Ukrainians want democracy. They also want to join NATO and the EU. And Russia is one of the most corrupt nations on Earth.

Advocatus Diaboli: I see what you mean. But let me address your points, beginning with the last. It is true, Russia is one of the most corrupt nations on Earth and the most corrupt in Europe. But do you know which is the second-most corrupt nation in Europe? You guessed it, buster - Ukraine.

And I would remind you that this Ukrainian democracy of yours isn’t especially democratic. Did you know that its President Zelenskyy, now so bravely defying Russian authoritarianism, arrested the leader of his opposition party - and banned three television networks? Is this your idea of democracy? That strikes me as rather Putin-esque.

Mainstream Spokesman: Don’t get cute with me. You can’t compare Zelenskyy to Putin. The opposition leader was a puppet of Russia and a traitor. What Zelenskyy did was appropriate.

Advocatus Diaboli: I see. So you must subvert democracy in order to defend democracy.

Mainstream Spokesman: Sometimes, yes.

Advocatus Diaboli: You say Putin is Hitler. If he’s allowed to gobble Ukraine, in no time flat he’ll be gobbling all of Europe. Do I have that right?

Mainstream Spokesman: That’s exactly correct.

Advocatus Diaboli: Mmmm. Let me ask you this: Are you willing to fight for Ukrainian democracy?

Mainstream Spokesman: We will do everything we can to help Ukraine defeat the Soviet - sorry, Russian invasion. But we don’t want to intervene militarily because it could start a war with Russia, which could potentially go nuclear.

Advocatus Diaboli: That sounds reasonable to me. But if you’re not willing to fight for Ukraine’s independence today, why would you be willing to fight for Ukraine’s independence tomorrow - and risk nuclear war? You wish to bring Ukraine into NATO. But recall Article 5 of the NATO Charter. An attack on one constitutes an attack on all. All members must rush to the defense of the besieged. That means NATO - the United States, essentially - must defend Ukraine if attacked, presumably by Russia. And then you might have your dreaded nuclear war. Does this make sense?

Mainstream Spokesman: Collective defense is meant to deter aggression. That was the idea behind Woodrow Wilson’s proposed League of Nations. Bringing Ukraine into NATO will deter Russia because they don’t want to risk a larger war with us.

Advocatus Diaboli: There appears to be some logic in your argument. But you are willing to tie your security - and perhaps your very survival - to the decisions of unpredictable people thousands of miles away? You become a sort of prisoner to fortune. Assume Ukraine joins NATO. What if, in the future, Russia decides its interests are so threatened in Ukraine that it is willing to risk nuclear war? What if your lovely deterrence fails You did not think Russia would invade this time. You also did not think Russia would raise its nuclear readiness, as it has. Why should anyone think you can predict future events? Have you thought this through?

Mainstream Spokesman: Yes, absolutely. The world would be a safer place if Ukraine joined NATO.

Advocatus Diaboli: I see you mentioned Wilson. He entered World War I to make the world safe for democracy. He may have meant the best in the world. But look at the results. What he really made the world safe for was fascism and communism. You know where the path of good intentions leads to, right? Well, old Wilson can personally attest to that. The Boss particularly enjoys pitchforking him in the buttocks. He yelps like you wouldn’t believe. I enjoy watching it, I must admit.

Mainstream Spokesman: The League of Nations was a good idea. It was just that Wilson couldn’t get enough support for it. It might have stopped Hitler, as we must now stop Putin.

Advocatus Diaboli: Have you considered the possibility that your own policies are at least partly responsible for Putin’s actions?

Mainstream Spokesman: Here we go - another Putin apologist. You and Trump should get together.

Advocatus Diaboli: Believe me, we will. But never mind that. Just hear me out… Putin has warned for years that Ukraine was his line in the sand. He would not accept Ukraine within NATO, menacing at his doorstep. In reality, no Russian leader would. But you people just kept poking the bear. Victoria Nuland, some understrapper in your State Department, actually bragged about engineering a coup against Ukraine’s pro-Russian president in 2014 (incidentally, the Boss is keeping a dossier on her for future reference). To you people, Ukraine is a sort of pet project. To Russia it is a strategic imperative. Now that Putin has pounced, you clutch your pearls. HELLO! He warned you this would happen.

Mainstream Spokesman: Why should we listen to an anti-democratic dictator? Who cares what he wants? We don’t base our foreign policy on what Vladimir Putin wants.

Advocatus Diaboli: Well, maybe you should take his security concerns into consideration. He does, after all, have nuclear weapons - and may be prepared to wield them. Is a democratic, NATO-joined Ukraine more important to you than avoiding nuclear war? Look at what your Pat Buchanan said over 20 years ago: "By moving NATO onto Russia's front porch, we have scheduled a 21st-century confrontation."

But it is not just the “isolationist” Pat Buchanan who warned about NATO expansion. Shall I name some? No, you say? But I insist. Take, for example, Henry Kissinger: "To Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country… Ukraine should not join NATO."

Or a certain Jack F. Matlock Jr. - former United States ambassador to the Soviet Union. This fellow argued that NATO expansion was: "The most profound strategic blunder, [encouraging] a chain of events that could produce the most serious security threat... since the Soviet Union collapsed."

Or radical Noam Chomsky - hardly a Putin apologist: "The idea that Ukraine might join a Western military alliance would be quite unacceptable to any Russian leader [and Ukraine's desire to join NATO] is not protecting Ukraine, it is threatening Ukraine with major war."

Or famed Russian scholar Stephen Cohen: "If we move NATO forces… toward Russia's borders [...] it's obviously gonna militarize the situation [and] Russia will not back off, this is existential."

Or CIA director Bill Burns: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for [Russia] and I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

Or former defense secretary Robert Gates: "Moving so quickly [to expand NATO] was a mistake. [...] Trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching [and] an especially monumental provocation."

Or Sir Roderic Lyne, former British ambassador to Russia: "[Pushing] Ukraine into NATO... is stupid on every level… if you want to start a war with Russia, that's the best way of doing it."

Or globalist Jeffrey Sachs: "NATO enlargement is utterly misguided and risky. True friends of Ukraine, and of global peace, should be calling for a U.S. and NATO compromise with Russia."

Mainstream Spokesman: Enough! Stop! You’ve made your point, even though I disagree. I stand firm in my resolution that Putin must be stopped and that Ukraine must be allowed to have a democracy.

Advocatus Diaboli: Even if it means war with Russia?

Mainstream Spokesman:[Silence.]

Advocatus Diaboli: Well, it’s been fun. I hate to run, but the Boss is calling for me. I’ll be seeing you. No - I really mean it - I’ll be seeing you."

- dailyreckoning.com

"The Economic Suicide Of The West Is Now Under Way"

"The Economic Suicide Of The West Is Now Under Way"

by Mike Adams

"Today's urgent Situation Update podcast (see below) connects the dots and reveals why the West's economic sanctions against Russia have actually set into motion a series of events which will inevitably lead to the end of the dollar and the collapse of America as we know it.

By goading the West into severe economic sanctions and banking de-platforming, America just fell for Putin's tactical genius and unleashed a series of events that will inevitably spell the demise of the dollar and the collapse of America.

There is now a global rush away from the dollar and dollar-based control systems such as SWIFT. It's almost as if Biden and western nations were actually trying to detonate the dollar and bring it to its knees, ending the 75 years of dollar dominance in one grand suicidal leap off a cliff."

Please view the complete, critically important, article here:

- https://naturalnews.com/

Listen to today’s Situation Update podcast for even more details, including practical things you can do to beat inflation, stock up without spending a fortune, and prepare to survive the near-certain collapse of America: Podcast: Brighteon.com/9c7af8d5-777e-4a5f-9301-45dfef44a166

Gregory Mannarino, "Nightmare: The FED Is Going Out Of Its Way To Create Even More Inflation! Believe it!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/2/22:

"Nightmare: The FED Is Going Out Of Its Way 

To Create Even More Inflation! Believe it!"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"The Countdown For A Global Supply Chain Breakdown Has Begun!"

Full screen recommended.

"The Countdown For A Global Supply 

Chain Breakdown Has Begun!"

by Epic Economist

"A global supply chain breakdown is on the horizon, and it is likely to cause unforeseen damages all across the industry, accelerating the decay of this complex dynamic system, and disrupting global trade for a prolonged period. That means our domestic food and energy supplies are on the line, and according to experts, if the global outlook doesn’t improve in the near term, we might soon have to start rationing food.The shipping industry is being seriously impacted by the escalating tensions. A new analysis indicates that the industry is set to face an even worse labor crunch as over 15% of the world's seafarers come from the two countries.

Last week, the U.S. imposed sweeping restrictions on Russia’s financial sector. However, such sanctions are likely to have far-reaching and unintended consequences for the United States and the entire world. Industry strategists are warning that Western restrictions are going make it difficult to pay seafarers from both countries, which will consequently lead to a manpower shortage all across supply chains at a time the sector is already plagued by a severe scarcity of labor.

According to a report released by Tradewinds, citing shipowners and ship managers who supply workers to vessels, if shipping companies have problems moving crew in and out of both countries that could also result in another crew change crisis. Adding that to the lack of payment, millions of seafarers could simply exit the industry, leading to the aggravation of delays and disruptions all over the globe.

“An offensive or land grab could sharply reduce grain production as farmers flee the conflict, agricultural infrastructure and equipment are damaged, and the region’s economy is paralyzed,” said BRS. Moreover, the most recent spike in crude oil prices and sudden increases in insurance charges will continue to inflate global shipping costs in the coming weeks and months. International Brent crude oil prices already topped $105 per barrel, hitting the highest level since in almost a decade.

According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, even though there are congestion hotspots around the world, with millions of containers backing up across almost every trade lane, the issue is significantly worse in North America. For almost two years, experts and market strategists have been alerting about the negative repercussions of port congestion for global trade and urging the U.S. federal government to take proper action to mitigate the crisis. Unfortunately, government measures have seemingly backfired, causing even bigger backlogs all across the coast. Now that shipping lines have been reduced and carriers are avoiding backed-up ports, those unsolved issues are back to bite us.

Everything we buy and consume requires transportation, and soaring oil prices will be felt throughout the entire economy in many different ways. Inflation is already making millions of Americans struggle financially, and to make the situation even more complicated, the confrontation between Eastern and Western forces is going to impact food prices very aggressively.

“This could not come have come in the worse time,” lamented Robb MacKie, president and CEO of American Bakers Association. With grain prices already on the rise, the conflict abroad is placing even more pressure on a still ailing supply chain, he says.“Depending on how this comes out and how long it goes, farmers may not be able to plant spring wheat, corn, and other things. So, they might go a year without any crops,” MacKie continued.

Keeping in mind that we were already on the cusp of a global food crisis even before the tensions started to escalate, a decline in production would be disastrous. “If the conflict is prolonged, the consequences could be really serious,” Andree Defois, president of consultant Strategie Grains, told Bloomberg. “Grains will need to be rationed,” he warned. This is the worst global supply chain crisis we have faced in history, and the current global outlook is unlike anything that we have seen since the late 1940s. If conditions continue to worsen, the collapse is going to hit us much sooner than most people expected. The countdown for a global supply chain breakdown has begun, and the months ahead are going to be extremely painful for each and every one of us."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

Celente and the Judge, "WW III Has Begun, Our Lives Are On The Line"

Full screen recommended.

Celente and the Judge,

"WW III Has Begun, Our Lives Are On The Line"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com/

"Stock Market Rescued Today By Feds; Homeless Living At Closed Banks; Dollar Destructiom Continues"

Full screen recommended.

Jeremiah Babe, PM 3/2/22:

"Stock Market Rescued Today By Feds; 

Homeless Living At Closed Banks; Dollar Destruction Continues"

Musical Interlude: Neil H, “Candlelight Dreams”

Neil H, “Candlelight Dreams”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Braided, serpentine filaments of glowing gas suggest this nebula's popular name, The Medusa Nebula. Also known as Abell 21, this Medusa is an old planetary nebula some 1,500 light-years away in the constellation Gemini. Like its mythological namesake, the nebula is associated with a dramatic transformation.

The planetary nebula phase represents a final stage in the evolution of low mass stars like the sun, as they transform themselves from red giants to hot white dwarf stars and in the process shrug off their outer layers. Ultraviolet radiation from the hot star powers the nebular glow. The Medusa's transforming star is near the center of the overall bright crescent shape. In this deep telescopic view, fainter filaments clearly extend below and to the left of the bright crescent region. The Medusa Nebula is estimated to be over 4 light-years across.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap121025.html

The Poet: Mark Strand, "Dreams"

"Dreams"

"Trying to recall the plot

And characters we dreamed,

What life was like

Before the morning came,

We are seldom satisfied,

And even then

There is no way of knowing

If what we know is true.

Something nameless

Hums us into sleep,

Withdraws, and leaves us in

A place that seems

Always vaguely familiar.

Perhaps it is because

We take the props

And fixtures of our days

With us into the dark,

Assuring ourselves

We are still alive. And yet

Nothing here is certain;

Landscapes merge

With one another, houses

Are never where they should be,

Doors and windows

Sometimes open out

To other doors and windows,

Even the person

Who seems most like ourselves

Cannot be counted on,

For there have been

Too many times when he,

Like everything else, has done

The unexpected.

And as the night wears on,

The dim allegory of ourselves

Unfolds, and we

Feel dreamed by someone else,

A sleeping counterpart,

Who gathers in

The darkness of his person

Shades of the real world.

Nothing is clear;

We are not ever sure

If the life we live there

Belongs to us.

Each night it is the same;

Just when we’re on the verge

Of catching on,

A sense of our remoteness

Closes in, and the world

So lately seen

Gradually fades from sight.

We wake to find the sleeper

Is ourselves

And the dreamt-of is someone who did

Something we can’t quite put

Our finger on,

But which involved a life

We are always, we feel,

About to discover."

- Mark Strand

"Someone Once Told Me..."

"Someone once told me that time is a predator that stalked us all our lives. But I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey, that reminds us to cherish every moment because they'll never come again. What we leave behind is not as important as how we live it. After all, Number One, we're only mortal."

- Captain Jean-Luc Picard

"Energy, Money & Trust"

"Energy, Money & Trust"

Shivering in the dark while juggling hand grenades.

by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "What happened to Covid? It has disappeared from the headlines. And Joe Biden says it’s no longer anything to worry about. We didn’t hear him mention terrorists. But they must not be worth worrying about either. Both have been supplanted by the Bugaboo du Jour: Russia, bad; Ukraine, good. And like the two previous crises of the 21st century, only one point of view is permitted. Any other is cause for firing, canceling, deplatforming and defenestrating. The Hill: "A Milwaukee assistant city attorney has been fired after backing Russian President Vladimir Putin in an appearance on Russia Today TV."

But there’s always more to the story. And when the US banned Russian banks from the international money-clearing system, known as SWIFT, there was a whole rack of shoes waiting to fall. In effect, what the US is doing to Russia is similar to what the Canadians did to their protesting truckers – cutting them off from their own money. No due process. No courts. No trials. No defense witnesses; and no jury of 12 citizens, good and stout, to hear them.

Sanctions may seem like a fairly harmless way – better than dropping bombs – to meddle in foreign affairs. But foreign affairs are almost always disasters. And all actions have consequences. In today’s letter we wonder what they might be...

Inflation, meet Recession: In the sanction program, one thing was spared – Russian energy exports. It was all very high-minded of the Europeans and Americans to express their outrage at Putin’s invasion. (‘If there’s any invading going on, we’ll do it ourselves,’ Hillary Clinton should have said.) But they had no intention of shivering in the dark to make their point. Europe relies on Russian gas. America uses Russian-sourced energy too. If those pipelines were turned off, the price of oil worldwide – already hitting $110 this morning – would go even higher… and the US might be dealing with, not just inflation, but recession too.

Russian companies can still sell gas and oil… and still receive dollars or euros for them. The trouble is, what good are they? Cut off from the global financial system, they can’t use them… at least, not through the regular, official channels. Adam Tooze writes: "The crucial thing is that reserves of euros and dollars can be put to work only by selling them in western financial markets. Those transactions require intermediary banks. And those banks can be blocked from engaging in transactions involving Russia’s central bank. To do this to a fellow central bank involves breaking the assumption of sovereign equality and the common interest in upholding the rights to property."

What made civilized money such an important innovation is that it is neutral. Neither judge nor jury, a dollar is a dollar. An ounce of gold is just an ounce of gold. Trade flourishes because you don’t have to know everything there is to know about your counter-party. You buy a carpet from Iran… you don’t have to speak Persian. You don’t have to know the family that made it. You don’t know how they treat their sheep, their women or their children. Two hundred years ago, did their ancestors own slaves? And do they now doubt the Virgin Birth or that universal vaccination is supposedly the best way to deal with Covid?

Pulling the Pin: Until recently, you didn’t have to worry about it. You just had to know that the gold was real… or the dollar wasn’t counterfeit. But today, trading your money for ‘stuff’ comes with conditions attached. ‘Where did you get the money,’ your bank might ask. Has it been laundered? Did you trade with the Russians?

Money has been “weaponized,” say the pundits. But when the money goes, everything goes. With consumer price inflation already at 7.5%... and price hikes for raw materials hitting double digits… the US is already juggling with hand grenades. Not only do you have to wonder what your dollars will be worth… you also may wonder if you will have permission to spend them.

Russian exporters must be wondering too: ‘If I can’t spend the money as I please, I might as well just close the valves.’ Or, ‘I’ll have to raise my prices… and find a workaround.’ In either case, the effect is likely to be higher prices… less trade… less prosperity. And whatever you may think of Vladimir Putin, the US and its allies may be jeopardizing three key elements of modern prosperity – energy, money, and trust – all at once.

Weaponized? For sure. The kind of weapon that blows up in your face. More to the story… coming tomorrow."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

"The Inflation Nightmare and Predatory Lending are Back"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 3/2/22:

"The Inflation Nightmare and Predatory Lending are Back"

"Things are getting worse before our eyes. Predatory Lenders are back. People are sick and tired of inflation, and it is growing on a daily basis. Commodities are going through the roof. There is no end in sight to where the prices for oil, food and metals are headed."

The Daily "Near You?"

Peoria, Arizona, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Walk With The Dreamers..."

"Walk with the dreamers, the believers, the courageous, the cheerful, the planners, the doers, the successful people with their heads in the clouds and their feet on the ground. Let their spirit ignite a fire within you to leave this world better than when you found it..."

 - Wilferd Peterson

"Get Prepared for 2022"

"Get Prepared for 2022"

by Robert W Malone MD, MS

"Normalcy bias refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations." 

– Wikipedia

"Below, Jill and I offer some very basic advice - some of it we personally are doing now. This is practical stuff that we are thinking about, just as we included in the book that published on Amazon in February 2020 when we anticipated the coming impact of COVID-19. Our intention is to help our friends and neighbors to prepare and protect themselves. For a few of the more extreme measures listed, we are (personally) in a “wait and see” mode.

The thing is to be aware of broad global trends, and to use your own judgement. Do not rely on the legacy media to tell you what to think and how to respond. They are not your friends, and if we have learned one thing from the past two years it is that the legacy media cannot be trusted to tell the truth. They will spin everything in whatever way the government (or the World Economic Forum) wants them to say. We do not want to sound like alarmists, and are not predicting the “end times”, but we suggest that it will just be good home and farm practice to take a little time and invest some resources to prepare in case things take a turn for the worse.

What all of the information that we are seeing predicts is that the historic levels of inflation are likely to continue and may well accelerate. That means that a dollar saved today is going to be worth less tomorrow. And we now know that the Overlords have no problems weaponizing the current fiat currency-based banking and finance system for political purposes. Frankly, here on the farm, we are torn about what to do in terms of financial management. So as usual, we try to think global and act local. In our case, that translates to sinking cash into upgrading farm infrastructure - fences, buildings etc. using local sawmills and skilled labor. We recommend that you do your own diligence and thinking about how you and your family should plan and adapt.

Our “preparedness” list:

● Keep your cars close to filled with gas or diesel. Fuel prices will go up and availability will go down.

● If you keep a diesel tank for your rural farm, keep it filled.

● If you have liquid petroleum, keep the tanks well stocked. Also, if you have a

● Bar-be-que, keep the tanks full or charcoal on hand. That way there is a way to cook and boil water.

● If you have a fireplace, make sure you have a supply of wood or fuel - if it is still cold in your area.

● If you have a generator (for you rural folks), make sure it is working and has fuel.

● Now is the time to spend your money wisely. Despite the inflation, having savings in some form of liquid assets provides security. Our friends that are finance specialists are advising us that a major economic disruption is likely, and that in those situations (wall street crash, for example), cash is king.

● Consider buying used. Particularly for big items.

● Have back-up systems in place. Such as data storage (disk drives, icloud, etc). Be prepared for internet disruptions.

● Do not expect to see the price of cars to come down - availability of new cars will continue to be low.

●Supply chains/availability for computers, machines, electronics, car parts, etc. will be disrupted (even more than they already are).

● Keep a little cash at home.

● Keep your credit up and your card balances low - when the economy gets tough, loans become harder to get.

● Airplane tickets will go up. If you know about upcoming travel, book now.

● Keep the basics well stocked. Make sure you have supplies to live comfortably for at least two weeks, it not more.

● For imported items, be prepared for them to become harder to come by, and adjust accordingly by both stocking up when possible and/or finding substitutions. Just to illustrate in our case, supply chain for tractor parts has become a problem.

● If you are a “prepper”, this may be the time to re-evaluate and re-stock.

● Keep water in the house. We can and should expect electric grid issues - unknown where they will occur and for how long. For me, that means a 3 day supply drinking water for people and animals. Also, a bucket or source of water kept near the house for flushing toilets.

● So just keep the basics on hand, and prepare for black and brown outs. They may or may not happen, but be prepared.

● Work on your metabolic health. That means working on weight and getting more exercise.

●Vitamin D3 (yes, make sure your blood levels are high enough), Zinc and a good multi-vitamin are important. If you need a primer or have been living under a rock, go to the FLCCC website for more information.

● Don’t let your prescriptions and medications run low.

● Use urgent care centers, instead of hospitals. 1) the wait time and cost is generally lower and 2) COVID policies are still in place - hospitals are still not safe places and should be avoided, unless acutely ill. Luckily, we have lots of choices for alternatives in the USA. Staying healthy is the best way to stay out of hospitals.

● Seek alternative news sources. Do not rely on a single source for information.

● The US government will give us a load of propaganda in times of stress. Listen with a “critical ear” and remember that the objectivity of most social media and search engines have been compromised.

●Most main stream media has been infiltrated with government spooks (see Glenn Greenwald’s article on this). Often what the media reports is not accurate or at least is incomplete. I also highly recommend Greenwald’s Substack as a good primary news source, along with Bannon’s war room. As an aside, I just read an interesting piece on US war propaganda here.

● As an aside, in the case of an Internet black-out or brown out, many are building AM and ham radio capabilities. Even now, AM radio - some of which is broadcast from out of country (such as Mexico), is a good place for news in a major emergency, if other sources are down.

●COVID and health related information is still being withheld. The US government has had total regulatory capture by the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. Do not rely on main stream news sources as your primary information source for COVID.

Be flexible.

Community - keep an eye on how you can help your neighbors and friends. Particularly those who are elderly, frail and/or isolated. Feel free to write what you are doing to prepare for the “worst” while hoping for the best.

For now, unless the government says otherwise, the best thing we can all do is live our lives. Keep yourself busy doing what you love. Whether it be hiking, reading, gardening, going to events, church, volunteering, whatever. Don’t isolate yourself from your family and friends. It is through our connections to others that we remain centered. Remember the teaching of Dr. Matttias Desmet- the root cause of mass formation psychosis is social isolation. Free floating anxiety is not good for our health or mental wellbeing - it is how we fall under the spell of the mass formation hypnosis. So, live your life - just be a bit more prepared to whatever bad may happen.

Be that leader for your family and friends. Stay connected. Stay strong. Stay centered. Be prepared. And please be well, friends."

- https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/

"Massive Price Increases At Family Dollar! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 3/2/22:

"Massive Price Increases At Family Dollar! What's Next?"

"In today's vlog we are at Family Dollar with empty shelves everywhere! We are here to check out a massive increase in prices, and a massive food shortage! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Gregory Mannarino, "Commodities Have Gone PARABOLIC! This Is What You Should Be Doing Now"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/2/22:

"Commodities Have Gone PARABOLIC! 

This Is What You Should Be Doing Now"

- https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/

Musical Interlude: Leonard Cohen,"Everybody Knows"

Full screen recommended.

Leonard Cohen,"Everybody Knows"

"How It Really Is"

 

"A Mean Reversion"

"A Mean Reversion"

by Bill Bonner

"That's life,

(That's life)

That's what all the people say,

You're riding high in April, shot down in May.

But I know I'm gonna change that tune

When I'm back on top, back on top in June."

~ Frank Sinatra, “That’s Life”

Youghal, Ireland - "Ouch! Our small holdings of Russian stocks are down almost 60% so far this year. But you’re probably wondering: what are we doing investing in Russian stocks in the first place? Ah, dear reader… let us explain.

As we’ve seen, the markets move in great, generational sweeps from high to low and back to high again. The general rule (and we’re not divulging any trade secrets here) is to buy low, and sell high. Many people have tried it the other way around, but the results have been disappointing.

We bought Russian stocks as part of a special program – mostly for fun – in which we invest in the worst-performing markets, counting on ‘reversion to the mean’ and ‘contrarianism’ to turn them around. After all, a single company can go down and never get up again. So can an entire industry. But not a whole country. Often beset by worries, nevertheless, they tend to survive.

Horsesh*t Predictions: In 1900, there was a major industry involved in cleaning the horse manure from city streets. New York, for example, had an estimated 50,000 horses, producing 15 to 35 pounds of manure, each, per day. That was 2.5 million pounds per day. The street cleaners were unable to keep up with it. One ‘expert’ forecast that London’s streets would soon be buried under 9 feet of manure. That was the great climate disaster of 1900… and it was, well, horsesh*t.

So too were the many crises and delusions to come along later. Child labor in the factories was a bugaboo in the early 1900s. Then came a war ‘to end war.’ A “permanent plateau” in the stock market was the forecast of the greatest economic expert of the era, Irving Fisher, in 1929. Bolshevism was seen as a threat to mankind in the 1930s, 1940s… followed by communism in the 1950s. In the 1960s, leading economists were still predicting that the centrally planned Soviet Economy would overtake the US. In the ‘70s, climatologists were concerned about ‘global cooling.’ In the ‘80s, Japan’s model of government-led capitalism seemed unstoppable. Then came the dot.com bubble… in which it was predicted that growth rates would now speed up because the new Internet made the world’s knowledge available to everyone. Why live in darkness, when the light switch was now just a click away?

Then we discovered ‘terrorists’ in our midst… followed by Ben Bernanke’s hallucination: “We may not have an economy on Monday,” said he, in 2008. More recently, Covid was advertised as though it was the Great Plague… and now, the Russians are threatening our western civilization.

But since the advent of the 21st century, US GDP growth rates have been cut in half. War is still in the news. Experts believe the world is heating up. Japan seems to have fallen into a permanent, on-again, off-again, slump. Bolshevism has disappeared almost everywhere, except perhaps on US university campuses. Terrorists, too, have practically disappeared from the headlines. The economy is still in business. Covid has left more people on Planet Earth than it found. And child labor? In the 50 states, we can scarcely find a factory for anyone to labor in.

From these facts, laid down before us like stepping stones across a woodland stream, we could probably take a leap to many different insights. But rather than risk a slip, we will merely conclude that ‘things change.’ ‘Tout casse, tout passe,’ as the French say. Everything keeps moving… the tides ebb and flow, as the ancient rhythms of life continue. You’re riding high in April; shot down in May. That’s life.

Most of the People, Most of the Time: Russian stocks were shot down long ago. But they didn’t die. Rarely does a whole country go out of business. Instead, it goes up and down. When we bought them, Russian stocks were among the most unloved equities on the planet. And yet, they were real companies, operating in a real country… with very sophisticated engineers… a large domestic market and all of Europe just a pipeline away. And now, they are even cheaper.

But wait. Russia is a pariah. Russians are ‘bad guys.’ The world has turned against them. And Russian assets are stranded, doomed. Yesterday, the Russian stock market was closed. In New York, the losses mounted up so high, trading in Russian shares was halted. But a few Russian stocks and ETFs still traded in London… and it was a bloodbath. The two leading Russian stock ETFs dropped 25% each. Russian bonds, too, have collapsed; they are now selling for about 33 cents on the dollar. The Russian ruble is losing value on world markets; in Russia, the physical currency is hard to get, with long lines of people trying to make withdrawals. And Sberbank, whacked by sanctions and thought to be near bankruptcy, lost 75% of its value.

Did investors overreact? Did politicians? In private life, most people get along tolerably well. They pass through intersections without damage. If they earn sixpence, they spend sixpence, not more. They grumble, but render unto Caesar that which he asks.

But in public life, most people are wrong, most of the time, about most everything. Humans take their cues from others, especially their leaders. They go to restaurants that are popular… read the books that others are reading… and wear the clothes they’ve seen on their friends and influencers. They tend to bunch up, unite behind jackass leaders, trample each other in a stampede, and pay too much for their favorite investments.

But there’s always more to the story; eventually, it comes out… In the short run, says Warren Buffett, the stock market is a ‘voting machine.’ The mob votes for stocks like it votes for politicians – electing loudmouth buffoons and slick frauds. The contrarian takes the other side of the trade. He votes for the underdog, and waits for June."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

○

Frank Sinatra, “That’s Life”