"Debt, War, and Energy:
Fourth Turning Climax by 2032"
By Ivor
"Geopolitics: Analysts have noted heightened risks of conflict as we enter the final leg of the Fourth Turning, pointing to escalating Israel-Iran tensions, US and EU interactions with Russia, and the potential for broader geopolitical strife influenced by technology and strategic interests. The Fourth Turning is reportedly expected to climax prior to 2032.
According to Russian state news agency TASS, Russian intelligence claims that the US and UK are holding secret talks with Ukrainian officials to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, reportedly discussed at an Alpine resort. This claim remains unverified. Some Western reports have also suggested Zaluzhny as a potential successor amid declining support for Zelensky. However, the Ukrainian presidential office, through Andrey Yermak, has denied allegations of secret meetings to replace Zelensky, labeling them as Russian propaganda.
Separately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia has developed “immunity” to sanctions, responding to President Trump’s 10-day ultimatum for a Ukraine ceasefire. Trump envoy Keith Kellogg stated that oil sanctions on Russia could have a significant impact if enforced effectively, targeting the country’s 7 million daily barrel exports. The Kremlin, however, has downplayed the potential effects. Internet disruptions and calls for cash reliance in Russia indicate possible internal preparations for further pressure.
Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly considering a 30% reduction of US troops in Europe, which could affect approximately 20,000 of the 90,000-100,000 currently stationed there, as part of a broader military posture review. With significant bases in Germany and Poland, this potential shift aligns with a focus on regions like the Indo-Pacific and budgetary considerations. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has stated that this move would encourage European allies to strengthen their own defense capabilities. NATO, however, has expressed concern that a reduced US presence could undermine regional stability and deterrence against aggression.
Finally, Iran is reportedly considering a shift from GPS to China’s BeiDou navigation system due to security concerns following GPS disruptions during recent conflicts, signaling a potential move toward non-Western technology infrastructure.
Economy: Global economic indicators show varied trends. US government debt has increased by $519 billion since the debt ceiling was raised in July, reaching $36.73 trillion, with projections estimating $37.8 trillion by year’s end due to Treasury auctions in the bond market. Michael Snyder has drawn comparisons to 2008, pointing to parallels seen in Las Vegas. Hotel occupancy has dropped by over 14%, casino revenues have declined, and unemployment has risen alongside a weakening housing market.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank head warned that without central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), central banks risk losing control over economic systems to alternatives like Bitcoin, highlighting the need for digital payment innovation amid growing public interest.
Energy: In Wyoming, a large AI data center in Cheyenne is planned to consume up to five times the state’s residential power usage, with a proposed 1.8-gigawatt facility that could scale to 10 gigawatts. The tech company behind the project has not been disclosed. Wyoming, a leading US energy exporter, may face increased electricity costs for residents due to this development. Greenpeace has also raised concerns about the environmental impact of the Wyoming data center, warning that its massive energy consumption could undermine renewable energy efforts.
In Europe, the EU’s commitment to purchase $750 billion in US energy over three years has been questioned by analysts from Rabobank and Kpler, who argue that achieving this target would require an unrealistic 67% reliance on US energy, given current imports of €65 billion annually. This could strain market dynamics and conflict with Europe’s clean energy objectives, according to these analysts.
European Politics: In Manchester, UK, police arrested 35-year-old theatre worker Samuel Rowe in his garden after mistaking his gardening tools for weapons. Rowe was trimming his hedge with a small sickle and carrying a sheathed Japanese weeding trowel when officers, responding to a public report, detained him. The tools were described by police as a “large dagger” and a “peeling knife,” resulting in a caution. Rowe has expressed concern that this could impact his career. This incident occurs within the context of UK laws on offensive weapons, which include exceptions for work-related tools but can still lead to arrests. Manchester Police defended their actions, stating they acted on a concerned citizen’s report and prioritized public safety, while acknowledging the tools were indeed gardening implements, as reported by BBC News."
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