"Doug Casey on Potential
'October Surprises' Before the Election"
by International Man
"International Man: The 2024 US presidential election is a short time away. What types of surprises or twists could we expect?
Doug Casey: It’s long been said that there’s usually an October surprise. So what might happen between now and then?
All things considered, I expect the Democrats to win. Despite the fact that voting for a pair of hard-core leftists is clinically insane on the part of the average American, I think that they’ll win. The capite censi support leftist views on almost all major issues; the collectivists and statists have long since captured the moral high ground. Plus, the Dems control the apparatus of the State, and they’ll use it in any and every way possible. And, very importantly, 20 or 30 million illegal migrants realize that if Trump wins, there’s an excellent chance they’ll be evicted; they’ll find some way to vote against him. On top of that, the Democrats are notoriously better at cheating than Republicans, who tend to favor traditional Boy Scout values.
However, anything could happen between now and November 5. If a serious scandal, real or fabricated, is promoted against either Trump or Harris, that could sway the undecided. A big October surprise might involve the US in an actual war because once a war starts, people don’t like to change horses in the middle of the stream. Anything could happen because we’re living in a chaotic environment.
"Our democracy" is nothing more than a degenerate collapsing empire that’s falling apart at the seams in every way possible. Anything can happen, including the old standbys—money, sex, and treason. I am forced, regrettably, to put my money on the bad guys. If only because the media will emphasize any Trump peccadillos while minimizing any Harris felonies.
International Man: The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are raging as China eyes Taiwan. Could we see a significant geopolitical development ahead of the election?
Doug Casey: I wouldn’t worry too much about China and Taiwan. The Chiang Kai-shek government essentially conquered the island after World War II; Taiwan has never been part of China itself. Legally speaking, China has no more right to it than they do to Tibet or Xinchiang. But that’s irrelevant in the world of realpolitik.
The relevant question is: Will Beijing try to conquer it? That makes no sense to me because the Taiwanese government is in a position to resist mightily, and even if the Chinese won, they’d destroy most of Taiwan’s economic value. So, thinking long-term, as the Chinese do, they’ll threaten and parade around Taiwan but won’t start a real war.
A greater danger is the idiotic US policy of defending the island while probing and threatening China, even though it’s exactly on the other side of the world. US neocons have clearly learned absolutely nothing from their catastrophic misadventures in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, among other places in Asia.
The wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East are bigger problems. There’s no question that the Ukraine will lose and NATO will be embarrassed. The real question is whether the war spins out of control. Some idiot in NATO, perhaps at the prompting of that degraded little clown in Kiev who likes dressing up in faux military T-shirts, could launch a serious missile attack on the interior of Russia. At that point, the Russians would feel obligated to strike back.
The odds of a catastrophe in the Middle East are much greater. The Israelis seem to feel striking at Iran’s oil and developing nuclear facilities will put off the inevitable for another decade or so. Perhaps they feel now’s the time to help keep the Dems in office, with the US acting as their trained attack dog. But that’s a whole different discussion…
International Man: Inflation, mass migration, and a deepening cultural divide are some of the most pressing issues domestically. How do you see these issues evolving before the election?
Doug Casey: It bears repeating that inflation is a process. People think of retail price rises as inflation. They’re not. They’re the effect of inflation. And inflation is caused by money printing. Money printing is going to continue because the US government is running a $2 trillion deficit annually; most of it is being financed by the Federal Reserve.
Various factors determine how much, how quickly, and where that new super money comes down to a retail level to increase prices. But I don’t think anything new will happen on this front in the next 30 days because the cause of inflation is always months or years in advance of the effect of inflation.
On the other hand, mass migration continues apace, with thousands of people entering or being actively imported daily into the US. Even the average brain-dead American is starting to recognize that these people are being recruited, subsidized, and housed at their expense. It’s not just Springfield, Ohio. There’s also a place called Charleroi, Pennsylvania. Charleroi is a town of only 4,000 people that’s already been inundated with over 2,000 Haitians. It’s totally overrun and a template for many more towns across the US. Mass migration is going to be a big thing in the months and years to come. But the next 30 days aren’t enough to create a real backlash.
No matter who wins this election, the other side is going to be bitterly unhappy. The red people and the blue people really hate each other. So, we’re looking at the early stage of an actual civil war in the US. I’ve been saying this for about the last decade. It won’t be like the War Between the States of 1861 to 1865. There will be lots of talk of local secession movements, and there’s bound to be violence no matter who wins. And we haven’t really touched on the consequences of a financial meltdown, an economic meltdown, or the potential for US wars coming home.
International Man: Donald Trump has had two attempts on his life in the past few months. It seems there are elements of the Deep State that want to take him out. What do you think will happen?
Doug Casey: The Jacobins are fully in control in Washington, DC. Trump may not be a prize, but at least he’s a cultural conservative; at least he doesn’t want to overturn American culture and traditions. He doesn’t like the Jacobins, and they actively hate him. Of course he’s going to try to root them out if he’s elected—and they don’t want to be rooted out.
They want to cement themselves more deeply into power. Although the Democrats will likely win, elements of the Deep State may believe it’s better to be safe than sorry. They might figure that the third time is the charm in getting rid of him. These two attempts were highly suspicious in many ways. It’s especially fishy the way the trial of the most recent attempt by Ryan Routh is being slow-walked. Perhaps he’ll be "Epsteined."
As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being President is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.
International Man: What do you expect to happen in the financial markets ahead of the election? How are you positioned to profit?
Doug Casey: Money makes the horse run, and the gigantic US deficits are creating super money, courtesy of the Fed. Most of it flows into the stock market. It’s a bubble that will eventually burst with a 1929-style ferocity because of the scores of trillions of debt created by the Fed, and fractional reserve banking. Will it happen between now and the election?
Nobody can predict that, and the economy is going to go deeper and deeper into the Greater Depression. But what will happen in the financial markets? Stocks and bonds are both egregiously overpriced, but it simply means I don’t want to own them. I don’t want to be that risky. With the country on the brink of a cultural and financial breakdown, the upcoming election could be the tipping point. The volatility we’re facing will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before."
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