Saturday, March 6, 2021

"How The Fight Over American Freedom Will Probably Escalate"

"How The Fight Over American Freedom 
Will Probably Escalate"
by Brandon Smith

"Three months ago in December I published an article titled ‘Is The Globalist Reset Failing? The Elites May Have Overplayed Their Hand’. I was specifically interested in the development of the pandemic “crisis”, the lockdown mandates of governments worldwide, the bizarre vaccination campaign for the new and under-tested mRNA cocktail which was rushed out to the public in the span of six months, the World Economic Forum’s open statements that they hoped to exploit the pandemic as a springboard for their globalist agenda, and the public’s reaction to it all.

I have to say, I continue to see a divergence in what the elites clearly wanted to happen vs. what has actually happened. If the Event 201 pandemic war game on a coronavirus outbreak, held two months before the actual outbreak occurred in China, is any indication, then the globalists greatly overestimated the fear effect of Covid.

They predicted at least 65 million deaths from a coronavirus outbreak, but over a year has passed since the pandemic went international and the official death count stands at 2.5 million, with over 40% of deaths in the US attributed to nursing home patients that were ALREADY dying from preexisting conditions. Removing suspect nursing home deaths from the equation, the death count is probably closer to 1.5 million, again, if we adhere to official estimates.

To put this number in perspective, the CDC states that global deaths from the flu virus peak at around 649,000 depending on the year. Deaths from the flu and pneumonia reach as high as 1.4 million globally per year. Studies funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation find annual pneumonia death stats that are comparable to the CDC’s. Yet, we never saw Bill Gates calling for economic lockdowns, mask mandates and medical passports because of the flu or pneumonia. Why is that?

Today, the death rate of covid is 0.26%, FAR below initial predictions by globalist institutions and governments. It is now widely proven that the lockdowns did NOTHING to slow the infection spread of the virus, and now many areas of the US are starting to experience what the lab coat “professionals” affectionately call “herd immunity”. Infections and deaths are plunging, and the lockdowns and mask mandates were useless.

Like the vast majority of all viral illnesses, humans simply get sick, endure, build immunity and get healthy. Some of us die, as we always have, and government intervention is not needed nor is it welcome. This is why large portions of US and European populations are refusing to accept the lockdowns and the vaccines. Why destroy the economy and submit to a potentially dangerous genetic cocktail over a disease that 99.7% of the population is sure to survive?

The establishment elites really blew it this time. My suspicion, my “conspiracy theory” if you will, is that the globalists announced their reset agenda under the assumption that the death rate for covid would be MUCH higher than it is. They were expecting something biblical, and instead they got something not much more dangerous than the flu and pneumonia.

There is now mass public resistance to the vaccinations and medical passports. This is probably why they rushed out the vaccines in the span of 6 months instead of a year to 18 months as they hinted at in early 2020. They are trying to get as many people as possible to take the experimental vaccines before the citizenry realizes that covid is a nothing-burger.

I can say that in my area the majority of people never wore the masks and the majority of local businesses never tried to enforce them. And though they initially went along with the first economic shutdown, they will not be complying with another. In my state of Montana, there are 1,300 deaths attributed to covid. In my county, the estimated infection rate is over 25% (which means almost everyone has probably already been infected), and there are only 13 deaths total.

No one is scared of this thing. Almost no conservative is going to wear a mask, and many people in Red states (and some in Blue states) are going to refuse to take the vaccines or accept medical passports.

This means that the globalists have a big problem. They obviously invested a lot into this pandemic. It is the key to their entire Reset agenda. Without a frightening pandemic killing tens of millions, the globalists will not be able to lock down the public and prevent them from traveling or organizing. They will not be able to institute the medical passports and contact tracing apps that would allow them to watch the public 24/7. They certainly won’t get most Americans to go along with the cashless society and the centralized global governance the elites are so obsessed with.

The fear of coronavirus is waning. The globalists have indeed failed in epic fashion. But, this doesn’t mean that they are going to give up. If my experience studying psychopathic people tells me anything, it is that when these lunatics are cornered they tend to double and triple down on their failures.

The question is, what will happen next? The establishment will need maximum instability and chaos in the near term if they hope to salvage their Reset project. If they wait too long awareness will spread and they might not get another chance for many decades to come, if ever. Here are the events I expect to see over the course of the next year…

Covid Mutation Hype: The globalists are doomed unless they can keep the pandemic panic rolling forward. For now, puppets like Biden and Fauci are going to pretend as if a full reopening of the economy is going to happen. This us a lie. Already we are seeing Biden waffling on when a reopening will take place. He has indicated that it will be at least a YEAR before the shutdowns will completely end, and this is predicated on the majority of Americans submitting to vaccinations and medical passports.

In other words, the establishment is telling us that they intend to hold the economy hostage until we take the jab and give up our freedoms.

Now, are these inbred totalitarians just out of their minds? Well, probably, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a Plan B. Just look at all the hype surrounding “covid mutations” in places like South Africa and Brazil; the narrative will be that a “new covid variant” that is more dangerous and deadly than the first virus is spreading, and that the lockdowns must return for the greater good of the public.

As a recent article from ‘The New Scientist’ states: “Existing vaccines should stop people getting severely ill and dying if they do get infected by the P.1 variant. However, because many people remain unvaccinated, plans to ease lockdown restrictions would have to be rethought if this variant causes a resurgence in case numbers. Plus, any variant that circulates widely will have more opportunities to evolve into a more dangerous form.”

The New Scientist does not seem to understand basic science. The overwhelming majority of viruses circulating in the world usually evolve into less deadly forms of their original iteration. Viruses need to survive too, and they don’t do this by mutating into more and more deadly monstrosities that kill their favorite hosts. There is still no evidence that the new covid mutations are any threat whatsoever, but the establishment is already staging the narrative that new lockdowns are coming.

Federal Lockdowns: If the mutation narrative continues on the path it seems to be following, then I expect the Biden Administration to attempt a national federalized lockdown similar to the Level 4 lockdowns used in Europe and Australia, and it will be announced sometime this year. This program will trigger several reactions; most importantly, most conservative states and counties will refuse to follow federal mandates. I know that my county and probably most of Montana will defy any new shutdown. There will be several economic consequences that will erupt from this conflict; some positive and some negative.

Domestic Economic Warfare: This phase of the crisis will happen within a month to two months of any national shutdown. Red states will refuse to comply. State politicians, even if they are part of the agenda, will be too scared to try to enforce federal mandates. They will be compelled by the conservative citizenry to keep their states open. Most people in these areas will ignore mandates.

This will lead to a red state fiscal boom, at least in the beginning, as business continues to thrive in conservative areas while blue states suffer under medical tyranny. Companies will flee leftist states by the thousands and move to any states that remain open and accommodating. This will be short lived, though.

Biden and the federal government will try to retaliate, first by cutting off federal funds to any state that does not bow to their power and refusing to give stimulus to any businesses that relocate. Blue states will be flush with stimulus cash while red states will be forced to reduce or eliminate welfare programs and some pension funds.

Of course, the government has no real money to give, they only have our tax dollars and the fiat that the central bank creates from thin air. The likely response will be that conservative states and citizens will simply stop paying federal taxes. Another reaction will be red states taking over federal lands and utilizing the resources on those lands to rejuvenate their industry and make up for the federal dollars lost.

What this amounts to is a soft secession of conservative regions, which will eventually lead to federal attempts at physical intervention (the economic war will turn into a shooting war). The argument from the establishment will be that conservatives are putting the rest of the country “at risk”, that we are “selfish” and “literally killing grandma”.

Complete Erasure Of Conservatives From The Internet: I expect Biden and Big Tech to further pursue their current witch hunt against conservative voices, far beyond what we have already seen. In order to win a fight with conservatives they will first have to silence us so that our side of the argument is never seen or considered by the rest of the population. If they allow us to be heard, we will undoubtedly win because facts and moral reason are on our side.

It is hard to demonize people that simply want to be free. But, if you can silence conservatives and moderates, then the narrative can be rigged. The establishment spin doctors can tell people that we don’t actually want freedom; we want something else, something evil and nefarious. They can tell people we are “fascists”, and that we are “racists” and that we actually want tyranny. Who is going to tell the public otherwise when we are removed from all available platforms and our websites are booted off service providers due to “dangerous ideas”?

Gun Control Madness: I know that some people think that leftists under Biden will not try to carry out a widespread gun crackdown and that much of the current talk is merely hollow rhetoric. I disagree. I think the globalists are going for broke, and they need to get as many combat capable firearms as they can from Americans soon. Democrats will push hard for legislation like HR 127.

They will then offer a “compromise” with Republicans and the NRA, cutting out portions of the bill. This will be a trick to make the public think that the new restrictions are a “reasonable compromise”. They think we will breath a sigh of relief and say “Well, at least they didn’t take everything…”

The gun grabbers are delusional. What will really happen is millions of gun owners will pass local and state laws negating federal restrictions. No conservatives are going to give up their gun rights, allow red flag laws to be implemented or allow high capacity firearms to be limited; not at this stage in the game.

International Intervention: Eventually, leftists and the establishment will realize that conservatives will be harder to subjugate than they expected. They will discover that a large part of the US military and law enforcement is on our side. They will start to see mutiny among the people that they rely on as cannon fodder to carry out their dictates.

Even now, there are sheriff’s departments across the country refusing to enforce lockdown orders. And, 30% to 50% of medical professional say they will not be taking the covid vaccine depending on the state. When the rebellion goes live, this is when the globalists will have to pursue extreme options. They will not be able to win using domestic forces. Instead, they will seek out an international response, probably through the United Nations.

The rationale will be that the US has an enormous nuclear arsenal and that the international community cannot allow these weapons to fall into the hands of “white supremacists”. This is when the real fight will begin. If international intervention fails in the US, the globalists will find their heads on the chopping block. If the globalists win the fight in the US then there will be very few people left to resist them in the years going forward.

I have had numerous readers from all over the world write to me, saying that they believe in the face of the pandemic lockdowns it is now all up to Americans to turn the tide. I agree. A successful rebellion against globalism in America will lead to rebellions elsewhere, but the fact remains that if we lose, no one else will dare lift a finger. The future is in our hands."

"How It Really Is"

 

"The Global Financial End-Game"

"The Global Financial End-Game"
by Charles Hugh Smith


"For those seeking a summary, here is the global financial endgame in fourteen points:

1. In the initial "boost phase" of credit expansion, credit-based capital ( i.e. debt-money) pours into expanding production and increasing productivity: new production facilities are built, new machine and software tools are purchased, etc. These investments greatly boost production of goods and services and are thus initially highly profitable.

2. As credit continues to expand, competitors can easily borrow the capital needed to push into every profitable sector. Expanding production leads to overcapacity, falling profit margins and stagnant wages across the entire economy. Resources (oil, copper, etc.) may command higher prices, raising the input costs of production and the price the consumer pays. These higher prices are negative in that they reduce disposable income while creating no added value.

3. As investing in material production yields diminishing returns, capital flows into financial speculation, i.e. financialization, which generates profits from rapidly expanding credit and leverage that is backed by either phantom collateral or claims against risky counterparties or future productivity. In other words, financialization is untethered from the real economy of producing goods and services.

4. Initially, financialization generates enormous profits as credit and leverage are extended first to the creditworthy borrowers and then to marginal borrowers.

5. The rapid expansion of credit and leverage far outpace the expansion of productive assets. Fast-expanding debt-money (i.e. borrowed money) must chase a limited pool of productive assets/income streams, inflating asset bubbles.

6. These asset bubbles create phantom collateral which is then leveraged into even greater credit expansion. The housing bubble and home-equity extraction are prime examples of theis dynamic.

7. The speculative credit-based bubble implodes, revealing the collateral as phantom and removing the foundation of future borrowing. Borrowers' assets vanish but their debt remains to be paid.

8. Since financialization extended credit to marginal borrowers (households, enterprises, governments), much of the outstanding debt is impaired: it cannot and will not be paid back. That leaves the lenders and their enabling Central Banks/States three choices:

A. The debt must be paid with vastly depreciated currency to preserve the appearance that it has been paid back.

B. The debt must be refinanced to preserve the illusion that it can and will be paid back at some later date.

C. The debt must be renounced, written down or written off and any remaining collateral liquidated.

9. Since wages have long been stagnant and the bubble-era debt must still be serviced, there is little non-speculative surplus income to drive more consumption.

10. In a desperate attempt to rekindle another cycle of credit/collateral expansion, Central Banks lower the yield on cash capital (savings) to near-zero and unleash wave after wave of essentially "free money" credit into the banking sector.

11. Since wages remain stagnant and creditworthy borrowers are scarce, banks have few places to make safe loans. The lower-risk strategy is to use the central bank funds to speculate in "risk-on" assets such as stocks, corporate bonds and real estate.

12. In a low-growth economy burdened with overcapacity in virtually every sector, all this debt-money is once again chasing a limited pool of productive assets/income streams.

13. This drives returns to near-zero while at the same time increasing the risk that the resulting asset bubbles will once again implode.

14. As a result, total credit owed remain high even as wages remain stagnant, along with the rest of the real economy. Credit growth falls, along with the velocity of money, as the central bank-issued credit (and the gains from the latest central-bank inflated asset bubbles) pools up in investment banks, hedge funds and corporations.

The net result: an over-indebted, overcapacity global economy cannot generate real expansion. It can only generate speculative asset bubbles that will implode, destroying the latest round of phantom collateral."

Friday, March 5, 2021

"The Trial of Winnie the Pooh"

"The Trial of Winnie the Pooh"
by Jim Kunstler

"A solemn silence turned collective gasp in the District of Columbia Woke Circuit courtroom as two bailiffs entered the door beside the jury box with the small cream-colored bear suspended between them, his stumpy hind legs wheeling fruitlessly to seek purchase in the unavailing air. The Queen of Hearts, presiding, banged her gavel as the little bear was seated at the table for the defense beside another rather small, darkish, furtive figure.

The Queen of Hearts peered over her half-glasses at the defendant and snarled, “State your full name and residence.”
“Winnie-the-Pooh,” the defendant said. “From the Hundred Acre Wood.”
“What is your personal pronoun?”
The bear looked perplexed. “Oh, bother,” he said. “Nobody I know has such a thing?”
“Of course they do,” the Queen said.
“Perhaps it’s ‘the’,” the bear said.
“That is a definite article, not a pronoun!” the Queen barked. “Are you an imbecile?"
“I’m not sure. Maybe it’s ‘dear'”—
“That’s enough out of you!” the Queen said. “And let’s have no more impertinence! Do you have counsel?"
“Why, yes,” the bear said. “Mr. Kafka, who is seated beside me.”
“You are mistaken,” the Queen said. “That is a cockroach seated beside you, and the court is displeased to see it. Bailiff, please remove that disgusting cockroach from my court.” Mr. Kafka, gesticulating in protest with all six arms and legs, had to be dragged out.

“First witness!” the Queen screeched. “Counsel for the prosecution….”

"Calling Uncle Remus,” said the prosecutor, Andrew Weissmann, famous for his exploits in the Enron case and with The Mueller Team in the old Russia collusion days. An elderly gentleman-of-color with white beard and a kindly face limped forward and took the witness stand.

“Do you know this bear?” Weissmann asked.
“I knows a Brer B’ar,” Uncle Remus said. “But he a black b’ar. Dishyere one a white b’ar.”
“Exactly!” Weissmann said. “Dismissed.”
“Dat all?” Uncle Remus asked.

“It’s plenty,” Weissmann retorted and smirked at the jury, composed of members from the United Federation of Teachers, the Southern Poverty Law Center, and Antifa, who all nodded amongst themselves. “A white bear!” Weissmann repeated for emphasis, shaking his head. “And not a polar bear, either. A white bear. From England. Think about it…!” The jurors emitted growls of opprobrium.

“Next witness,” the Queen cried.
“Calling N-Word Jim,” Weissmann said.
A strapping middle-aged gentleman-of-color, dressed in ragged clothes, strode to the witness chair.
“You reside in libraries all over the world, is that correct?” the attorney asked.
“Yassuh, dat is so. But I’se originally fum Hannibal, Missouri.”
“Are you acquainted with the defendant?”
“I done seen him on many a shelf ‘round de worl’.”
“How much shelf space does he occupy compared to you?”
“Well, fur as I knows, ‘bout double.”
“Does that seem fair to you?”
“Way I sees it, he in mebbe twice as minny books as me and Huck.”
“Huck! Who is this Huck?”
“White boy I done made a journey down de ribber wif one time.”
“What is your experience with white folks, Jim?”
“Well, dey runs mos’ everything, I ‘spect. Leas’ as fur as I kin see.”
“Exactly!” Weissmann argued. “Is it not white privilege to — as you say — run everything?” he added, shaking his head gravely. “Hegemonizing and colonizing literature everywhere you look.”
“Say, what…?” the witness rejoined and pulled his chin.
“You can go back to your raft, Jim,” Weissmann said. “Dismissed. Calling Mr. Christopher Robin.”

A very old man, bent and trembling, shuffled forward to the stand, leaning on his brass-headed cane.
“You’ve been acquainted with the defendant for how many years?”
“Oh, yes, many, since…let’s see… uh, nineteen hundred and twenty-six, I’d say.”
“In all those years, did he ever… touch you?”
“We held hands. And hugged frequently.”
“I see,” Weissmann sneered. “And this ‘touching’ started when you were, what? About five years old?”
“I suppose. Yes. It was a very long time ago.”
“Do you recall an incident involving the defendant, a person named Piglet, and a broken balloon?”
“Yes… yes, I do!”
“That was not really a balloon, was it, Mr. Robin?”
“At the time, I thought…”
“You thought!” Weissmann barked. “We all think, don’t we? Sometimes maybe a little too much! I’ll tell you what I think: I think the jury can see exactly what was going on between you and the defendant, this very privileged bear. And if they think the way I do — that is, as a normal person with healthy morals — they’ll think that this was depraved behavior on the part of this bear, routinely abusing a five-year-old boy, year after year after year!”

The jury members all nodded avidly and buzzed between themselves.
Christopher Robin looked up at the bench.
“Balloon, indeed!” the Queen snorted, wagging her finger at both the bear and Christopher Robin. “I think we’ve heard enough.”

“No! I have one other witness,” Weissmann said. “Calling Peter Pan….” A figure wearing a leaf-green tunic and tights, and a feathered cap, flew across the room and landed in the witness seat.

“You’ve had occasion to work at the Disney Studios with the defendant, have you not?”
“I would see him around the lot on lunch breaks,” Pan said. “But we weren’t on the same pictures — except one time for a TV Christmas special where we all did cameos.”
“And what was your impression of this bear?”
“He made a crack about not believing in fairies. I didn’t know if he was kidding or not.”
“Were you hurt by that remark?”
“Not personally, but I saw what it did to my sidekick, Tinkerbelle. Her light almost went out.”
“Your honor, ladies, gentlemen, and non-binaries of the jury, We have definitely heard enough.”

“The defense rests!” the Queen of Hearts screeched. “Mr. Pooh, you have led a life of disgusting racism, colonialism, hate-ism, white supremacy, and depravity. I am directing the jury to find you guilty as charged and sentence you to be cancelled.” She pounded the bench with her gavel.
“Oh, bother,” Winnie the Pooh said, still perplexed and bewildered.
“Take him out, burn all those wicked books of his, and put him on top of the fire.”
“Lawks a’mercy,” Uncle Remus cried from the back of the room.
“See you up in sweet Beulah-land, Pooh, honey,” N-Word Jim said.
“Next case!” the Red Queen yelled above the commotion. “The people versus Robin Hood and his so-called Merry Men.”

Roll credits.
Fade to black…"

Gregory Mannarino, “Alert! Bank Of America ‘Call” Sparks Stock Market Rally”

Gregory Mannarino,
“Alert! Bank Of America ‘Call” Sparks Stock Market Rally”

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy (David Caballero), "Footprints On The Sea"

Gnomusy (David Caballero), "Footprints On The Sea"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“NGC 253 is not only one of the brightest spiral galaxies visible, it is also one of the dustiest. Discovered in 1783 by Caroline Herschel in the constellation of Sculptor, NGC 253 lies only about ten million light-years distant.
NGC 253 is the largest member of the Sculptor Group of Galaxies, the nearest group to our own Local Group of Galaxies. The dense dark dust accompanies a high star formation rate, giving NGC 253 the designation of starburst galaxy. Visible in the above photograph is the active central nucleus, also known to be a bright source of X-rays and gamma rays.”

"How the Brain Stops Time"

"How the Brain Stops Time"
by Jeff Wise

"One of the strangest side-effects of intense fear is time dilation, the apparent slowing-down of time. It's a common trope in movies and TV shows, like the memorable scene from "The Matrix" in which time slows down so dramatically that bullets fired at the hero seem to move at a walking pace. In real life, our perceptions aren't keyed up quite that dramatically, but survivors of life-and-death situations often report that things seem to take longer to happen, objects fall more slowly, and they're capable of complex thoughts in what would normally be the blink of an eye.

Now a research team from Israel reports that not only does time slow down, but that it slows down more for some than for others. Anxious people, they found, experience greater time dilation in response to the same threat stimuli. An intriguing result, and one that raises a more fundamental question: how, exactly, does the brain carry out this remarkable feat?

Researcher David Eagleman has tackled his very issue in a very clever way. He reasoned that when time seems to slow down in real life, our senses and cognition must somehow speed up-either that, or time dilation is merely an illusion. This is the riddle he set out to solve. "Does the experience of slow motion really happen," Eagleman says, "or does it only seem to have happened in retrospect?" To find out, he first needed a way to generate fear of sufficient intensity in his experimental subjects. Instead of skydiving, he found a thrill ride near the university campus called Suspended Catch Air Device, an open-air tower from which participants are dropped, upside down, into a net 150 feet below. There are no harnesses, no safety lines. Subject plummet in free fall for three seconds, then hit the net at 70 miles per hour.

Was it scary enough to generate a sense of time dilation? To see, Eagleman asked subjects who'd already taken the plunge to estimate how long it took them to fall, using a stopwatch to tick off what they felt to be an equivalent amount of time. Then he asked them to watch someone else fall and then estimate the elapsed time for their plunge in the same way. On average, participants felt that their own experience had taken 36 percent longer. Time dilation was in effect.

Next, Eagleman outfitted his test subjects with a special device that he and his students had constructed. They called it the perceptual chronometer. It's a simple numeric display that straps to a user's wrist, with a knob on the side let the researchers adjust the rate at which the numbers flash. The idea was to dial up the speed of the flashing until it was just a bit too quick for the subject to read while looking at it in a non-stressed mental state. Eagleman reasoned that, if fear really does speed up our rate of perception, then once his subjects were in the terror of freefall, they should be able to make out the numbers on the display. As it turned out, they couldn't. That means that fear does not actually speed up our rate of perception or mental processing. Instead, it allows us to remember what we do experience in greater detail. Since our perception of time is based on the number of things we remember, fearful experiences thus seem to unfold more slowly.

Eagleman's findings are important not just for understanding the experience of fear, but for the very nature of consciousness. After all, the test subjects who fell from the SCAD tower certainly believed, as they accelerated through freefall, that they knew what the experience was like at that very moment. They thought that it seemed to be moving slowly. Yet Eaglemen's findings suggest that that sensation could only have been superimposed after the fact. The implication is that we don't really have a direct experience of what we're feeling ‘right now,' but only a memory - an unreliable memory - of what we thought it felt like some seconds or milliseconds ago. The vivid present tense we all think we inhabit might itself be a retroactive illusion."
 For more on how intense fear affects memory, see my post, 

The Poet: Theodore Roethke, “The Waking”

“The Waking”

“I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.
I feel my fate in what I cannot fear.
I learn by going where I have to go.

We think by feeling. What is there to know?
I hear my being dance from ear to ear.
I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.

Of those so close beside me, which are you?
God bless the Ground! I shall walk softly there,
And learn by going where I have to go.

Light takes the Tree; but who can tell us how?
The lowly worm climbs up a winding stair;
I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.

Great Nature has another thing to do
To you and me; so take the lively air,
And, lovely, learn by going where to go.

This shaking keeps me steady. I should know.
What falls away is always. And is near.
I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.
I learn by going where I have to go.”

- Theodore Roethke

"Vitae Summa Brevis"

"Vitae Summa Brevis"

"They are not long, the weeping and the laughter,
Love and desire and hate:
I think they have no portion in us after
We pass the gate.
They are not long, the days of wine and roses;
Out of a misty dream
Our path emerges for a while, then closes
Within a dream."

- Ernest Dowson
“Vitae summa brevis spem nos vetat incohare longam”
 is a quotation from Horace’s “First Book of Odes”: 
“The shortness of life prevents us from entertaining far-off hopes.”

The Daily "Near You?"

Duncan, Oklahoma, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"There’s More to the Inflation Story Than Numbers"

"There’s More to the Inflation Story Than Numbers"
by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "Yesterday, Jerome Powell, jefe of the Federal Reserve, speaking at a Wall Street Journal virtual conference, let the cat out of the bag. CNN reports: "US stocks tumbled Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell predicted an increase in consumer prices this summer – something investors fear will force interest rates up sooner than expected.

The market reacted strongly to his interview. The 10-year US government bond yield jumped and was up 0.07% at 1.54% around the time of the closing bell. Meanwhile, stocks sold off. The Dow finished down 1.1%, or 346 points, and the S&P 500 closed 1.3% lower. The Nasdaq Composite fell even more sharply, tumbling 2.1%. The index managed to just avoid dipping into correction territory – defined as a 10% drop from its most recent high – as it was down 9.7% from its February 12 record high. The Nasdaq has erased its gains for the year.

“We do expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up, we’ll see inflation move up," Powell said…"

More to the Story" We’ve spent the entire week poking around in the marshes… the tidal flats where inflation flourishes… between the water world and solid ground. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman. Alas, about that he was wrong. He was too literal. Too numerical. Too confident of his own power of intellectual reductionism.

Funny that Friedman would illustrate such a mistake. Like choosing Mao Tse-tung to make a point about dental hygiene, Friedman was supposedly a conservative. That is to say, he recognized that we should be chary of making impulsive changes. For however much we think we have something figured out, there’s always more to the story.

Shortcomings: We are grateful to our colleague, George Gilder, for triggering this thought. In his recent writings, he has focused on the shortcomings of scientific models. The world, of course, is an infinitely complex place. But we can’t produce infinitely complex models. So our models are always simplified… like a school book for sex education leaving out the racy parts. That’s why the modelers are almost always wrong. The climate modelers tell us that because of our cows and cars, the world is heating up. And maybe it is… or isn’t. The epidemiologists tell us that COVID-19 will kill millions… unless we wear our masks. And maybe they’re right, too… or not.

Amusing Story: On this subject, an amusing story developed yesterday, when Joe Biden referred to Republican governors’ reluctance to continue with the lockdowns and cover-ups as “neanderthal.” How he knew what Neanderthals would think of his opinions on infectious diseases, we can’t imagine. And why the “unity president” would feel free to stereotype and calumny a whole race of humans – talk about victims of the patriarchy! – we don’t know that, either.

But at least one member of Congress stood up for the neanderthal-ish governors. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) one-upped the president, constructing an amazing, almost first-hand, life-like model of the vanished people: “Neanderthals […] are resilient, they’re resourceful, they tend to their own,” Blackburn said." Well, they must not have been that resilient; they disappeared 30,000 years ago.

Just Numbers: Models are always fanciful. The Fed’s 2,000 economists prepare models to predict GDP growth, for example. Inevitably, the models need to be constantly revised… so that the final line on the chart bends to meet reality. And when Milton Friedman modeled inflation, in order to reduce it to a “monetary phenomenon,” he had to ignore the mystery and poetry… the moral side of things… the surprises… the politics, panics, and madness… and all the other things that go into making a genuine inflationary episode. That is, he had to drain the marshes of all that didn’t fit his model – the tides of greed and fear… the wild animals… the slosh and suck of untamed mud. And what was he left with? Numbers. Numbers that did his bidding. Numbers that didn’t whine or complain when he crunched them together. Numbers that didn’t ask questions.

More than Numbers: In the stripped-down, simplified version, Germany’s hyperinflation was caused by numbers. In 1918, Germany had about 32 billion marks in circulation. By 1923, when the architect of Germany’s monetary policy, Rudolf von Havenstein, died of a heart attack, it had 500 quintillion of them. But Germany had also just lost a devastating war. It had lost its industrial heartland – the Ruhr Valley. Its unemployed war veterans were battling it out in the streets – the brown-shirts against the black shirts… the communists against the national socialists.And it had been forced to deliver almost all its real money – gold – in reparations to Britain and France.

Those things were not numbers. And not strictly monetary. But they mattered, too. And in America, had they been less pliant, the numbers might have stood up in 1971, when Richard Nixon decoupled the U.S. dollar from gold, and asked: “Now that the feds can print money at will, won’t they inevitably print too much? Isn’t that the lesson of 2,000 years of monetary history?”

Eight years later, they would have had more questions: “What is the effect of China joining the world economy? They have about 500 million people ready to be put to work. What will that do to inflation?”

"We Have Met The Enemy..."

 

Full screen recommended, if you dare.
3/4/21: Skid Row homeless encampment 
in downtown Los Angeles in the rain.

Full screen recommended.
March 2, 2021: Las Vegas Homeless

It's everywhere...And 22 million evictions pending 
once the moratoria and forbearances end... Then, what?

"Dispatches from the New Cold War"

"Dispatches from the New Cold War"
by Fred Reed

"Today’s characteristically luminous insights will be disordered and structurally horrifying, the sort of essay that would have sent my high-school English teacher into anaphylactic shock. In exculpation I plead laziness.

Recently I wrote a column on China’s digital yuan, now in late-stage testing. Bare-bones explanation: You download a digital-wallet app with which you can then send payments to anybody in the world who also has the app, no forms, bureaucracy, or bank account needed. OK, that’s cute, you say. Then, with my phenomenally perceptive, pincer-like grasp of the inescapable, I thought, it sounds scalable. If you can do it with thirty bucks (in yuan) for a hat from some store, why not with fifty million dollars (in yuan) for a shipment of oil from Iran? Sure, with more security and so on, but same mechanism. Interestingly, such payments would be completely independent of, and opaque to, Washington. And independent of…SWIFT, eeeeeeek! Do you suppose China has thought of this?

Well, I thought, this is mere speculative maundering by some guy in Mexico who is admittedly pig ignorant of international finance. And of course China itself was saying that the dijjywan had nothing to do with the dollar, oh no, was solely for domestic use, and for retail sales. Not important. Move on. Nothing to see here.

But then, this: China is consulting, whatever that means, with Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE over using the dijjywan for international payments. Uh…say what? Thailand and the UAE are not particularly domestic to China. And I doubt that Beijing is intensely interested in the retail market of the UAE, which has the aggregate population of a large city bus. Methinks China has Something In mind. And it don’t bode good for sanctions, the petrodollar, and the like.

Nuther subject: Being fascinated by what looks like a shift of the world’s technological and economic center of gravity from the West to Asia, I poke about the web in the manner of an Ernest truffle hound, to see what the wily Orientals are doing. My results are not too systematic. My distinct impression is that things are happening over there, ideas popping up on Wednesday and in volume production by Friday afternoon, of energy and movement. By contrast, America looks asleep at the wheel. Except that it doesn’t have a wheel. A few almost random examples:


Business Insider:“ “China is moving ahead with a huge robot farming project…powered by 5G cellular technology, the agricultural tractor with self-driving mode can also be remotely controlled to carry out multiple intelligent functions” says Chinese governmental site Global Times

Beijing has successfully powered up its “artificial sun” nuclear fusion reactor for the first time, China’s People’s Daily reported on Friday. It’s designed to be a clean energy source, similar to the real Sun.” The foregoing is overexcited as neither China nor anyone else has demonstrated controlled fusion, but it shows that the country is in the race.

Global Times (Again, mouthpiece of Beijing): China needs to increase its nuclear warheads to 1,000.” Because of American hostility.

Education. China finds its brightest students with a grueling entrance exam. America dumbs down elite high schools because they don’t have enough unqualified minorities. Thomas Jefferson High School in Virginia has already been enstupidated, and the NYC schools are on the block. The purpose of schools is to admit students who can’t do the work. New York Post: “With this year’s state math and English exams canceled, a watered-down grading policy enacted, and the tossing of attendance, the key factors for admission to selective schools have been dropped or diminished…. “

America Ties with China in 2019 Math Olympiad: Well, not exactly. The 2019 U.S. team is: Vincent Huang, Luke Robitaille, Colin Tang, Edward Wan, Brandon Wang, and Daniel Zhu. China, it seems, tied with itself.

BBC: China’s Chang-e Five lunar-sample return mission safely parachutes into Mongolia. Very sophisticated engineering, and it worked. The US is ahead in space exploration, its Perseverance mission now on Mars being a marvel, but the gap ain’t what it used to be.

If a car looks like this, I want one. Nio is working on a system in which “gas” stations remove a depleted battery and replace it with a charged one, thus eliminating the problem of long charging time. Will it fly? I don’t know, but those folks over there are scurrying. China, Japan, and South Korea, for example, are rapidly advancing hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars.

China’s Quantum Computer Beats Google’s Sycamore in ‘Computational Supremacy’, Claims New Study. Also a bit overdone. My grasp of quantum computing equals that of a hardboiled egg, but this seems to indicate that China is holding its own in a field that is a Very Big Deal.

China has finished building the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST), the world’s largest single-aperture telescope. This photo was taken on July 3, 2016, the day the huge dish’s last panel was installed” Great big sucker. Four years ago. China has the money to spend on pure science. Wow.

“The next-generation Chinese medium-low speed maglev doubles the top speed of the first generation and it becomes driverless…Most of the R&D work is done in Hunan Province…” Miles of high-speed rail in the US: 0. Miles of maglev rail in US: 0. Likelihood of either any time soon: 0. Cost of new B21 intercontinental nuclear bomber: $550 million. Each.


China to build 30 ‘fully connected’ 5G factories by 2023. Many think of Five G as being able to download movies in three seconds. Actually, with high throughput and low latency, combined with artificial intelligence and edge computing, it will be hugely important in managing smart factories, transportation networks, smart cities, and so on. This is why Washington wants to block it. Meanwhile China is catching up in AI, it seems.


“Huawei’s Harmony OS Extends to All Devices in 2021 in Bid for Tech Self-Sufficiency Amid US Trade War.” This is interesting. Tech commentators have pointed out, correctly but without too much insight, that Huawei will have a hard time selling phones with Harmony outside of China because Trump cut the company off from using the Android operating system’s app store. Google.” Huawei is now preloading Harmony on all of its product, making it independent of Google.

Now we have Huawei May Allow Chinese Smartphone Firms to Use Harmony OS to Counter Trump Trade Bans, This means that all of China’s phone companies are independent of Android, at least in China, as, if threatened by the US, they just switch to Harmony. It also means that China, should it choose, could ban Android in Chinas as Trump banned Huawei in the US, and perhaps ban iOS also, thus losing the entire Chinese market for Google and Apple. Forcing a large, resourceful country to build competing products might charitably be called preternaturally stupid.

Which brings us to the new Cold War, which is exactly what Trump II is engaged in. The Beltway China hawks want to cripple China’s tech industry by denying it advanced semiconductor technology, chiefly from America’s vassal states of Holland, Taiwan, and South Korea. Will this work? I dunno. But there is a clear pattern in China’s response. A sort of techy example, that sensible readers can skip.

There is a company in Wuhan, YMTC, Yangtze Memory Technology Company, that has developed an advanced 192-layer dual-wafer NAND (“flash”) chip using Chinese technology. Flash memory is used in huge quantities in everything from smartphones to French fries (well, maybe not French fries.) There is some doubt as to whether the company will be able to produce in volume, but it is building a second fab line, so it must think it can. If it does, American companies, notably Micron, will lose the (very large) Chinese market for flash. Then the Chinese, nothing if not commercial, will probably flood the world market with discount flash.

This tech-wide lunge for self-sufficiency, if Washington does not succeed in crushing it, will close the Chinese market progressively for American firms. Well, who needs 1.4 billion customers? The China hawks may be poking the wrong bear.

RCRWireless News: “Chinese operators to build over 1 million 5G base stations in 2021: “According to estimates from Wu Hequan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the total number of 5G base stations in China could reach more than 1.7 million by the end of next year.”

US fumbles, fiddles, sucks thumb. Years behind. It is now forcing UK to uninstall Huawei gear. Great diplomatic triumph. Brilliant future. Nuff said.

A total of 40% of the world’s new solar power generation capacity is constructed there. And the country’s share of global electricity generated by the sun has jumped from 2% in 2010 to 32% in 2018. Nuff said."

"The Duty..."

"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you 
damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, 
the duty to take the consequences."
- P. J. O'Rourke

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 3/5/21"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 3/5/21"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Another week and more election fraud is uncovered. Now, 400,000 absentee ballots are “missing” in Georgia. Joe Biden won the state by a little less than 12,000 votes. The ballots are required by law to be kept, but now they are gone and no way to check them. There was more election fraud discovered in New Jersey and Mississippi as well, but the public is being told election fraud in the 2020 Election is a “myth.” That’s a huge lie, and everybody knows it, including the Republicans that worked so hard to put Joe Biden in office. Now, the Republican leaders are talking about “voter integrity.” Hey, I thought voter fraud was a “myth”????

Dr. Simone Gold was arrested by nearly two dozen heavily armed FBI agents. Dr. Gold was at the U.S. Capital January 6th with a bullhorn warning anybody that would listen about the dangers of taking “experimental” Covid 19 (CV19) vaccines. Yes, you heard correctly, the vaccines are only approved for “emergency use.” This means the CV19 vaccines are experimental. Vaccine companies have no idea what will happen long term, but short term, Dr. Gold says they can cause miscarriages and also cause young women to be sterile. Dr. Gold did walk through the Capitol building on Jan 6th but caused zero damage and did nothing violent. Dr. Gold thinks the FBI raided her home and broke down her front door to intimidate her and anyone else that would tell the truth about CV19 vaccines and non-vaccine treatments such as hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and Ivermectin that have proven very good results for fighting CV19. Medical tyranny is here and alive and well in America.

This week, it was reported that another nearly 750,000 people filed for first time unemployment benefits. How can the economy be getting better? It’s not. Yet, the Senate is debating a $1.9 trillion so-called stimulus package. Will it help the economy? It might if 91% of the $1.9 trillion was not going to political payoffs and non-CV19 related spending. All of the money printing out of thin air might be the reason Fed Head Jay Powell is warning about inflation. Don’t worry, he says, it will be “temporary.” Hope so because things like grain, lumber, oil and many other commodities are spiking in price."

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com on Rumble as 
he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

"How It Really Was, And Will Be Again, Too"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 3/5/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 3/5/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/5/21:

"This Market Is A Financial NIGHTMARE"

"The more I see of the monied classes, 
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
March 4th to March 5th, Updated Daily 
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts
FRI MAR 5, AT 6:06 AM: "Central Banks & The Chernobyl Quandary" "Central Banks face an critical ask: how to raise rates to avert fuelling the financial asset bubble without triggering market meltdown."