So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, September 24, 2020
"Market Fantasy Updates 9/24/20"
"Market Fantasy Updates 9/24/20"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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Highly Recommended:
Updated live.
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Daily Update (September 23rd to 24th)
Greg Hunter, "Next 6 Months Most Perilous in US History"
"Next 6 Months Most Perilous in US History"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"Renowned radio host, filmmaker and book author Steve Quayle predicts, “The next six months will be the most perilous in the history of America. It’s not a prediction, you are seeing it right now. Three years ago at my ‘True Legends’ conference, I said from this conference date on, the word ‘normal’ will never be used again. I also said every expectation that you have known as normal in the coming months and years will change forever. There is no going back to normal. It doesn’t exist. Most people don’t even know what has changed, but when you can’t eat, you don’t have a job, you have to depend on $600 per week from the government, the restaurants you used to eat at are closed and 166,000 business closed, I say ladies and gentlemen, this is the most important time.”
Quayle also warns of profound earth changes, such as earth quakes and volcanos, that have recently increased in activity worldwide. Quayle explains, “I sometimes think we get too focused on the political, and we forget to see the big picture. The big picture is earthquakes are changing the face of the planet, and the volcanos are changing the temperature of the earth. This will all come to the point that we are going to be facing famine geologically induced by nature. Most people don’t even have this on their radar yet.
Stacking volcanos or triplet volcanos since July have been hitting 7.2 and 7.3 magnitude in Papua, New Guinea. When I am talking about ‘stacking’ earthquakes, I am not talking about aftershocks, this means three specific earthquakes being generated, and that is really significant. These are major quakes and not little tremors. You have been seeing this on the so-called ‘Ring of Fire’ until three days ago. On September 18, the Mid-Atlantic Ridge starting having these multiple earthquakes - major quakes. When there is a big earthquake on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and this is why we are talking about this, that (dead) volcano slides into the ocean, and then you’ve got the East Coast tsunami. The San Andreas Fault is little league compared to what I am talking about. This could affect the East Coast in a deadly and dangerous way. We are talking about a 500 mile per hour tsunami or tidal wave going inland for up to 100 miles." Quayle says his sources say that academic and government experts are “being muzzled so as not to cause a panic. He says they have been forbidden to talk about this.”
Quayle says the most important commodity to have in the future is food. Quayle says, “You better be buying canned food, no kidding. It does not have to be refrigerated.” Quayle also predicts, “America will endure a famine. I also have said this, the greatest migration in the U.S. history will take place for fresh water. It will be caused by drought, poisoning of the wells and earthquakes will fracture different areas and aquifers. Don’t wait to panic. You don’t need to worry about toilet paper. You need to worry about nothing in your stomach.”
As far as the November Election, Quayle says, “I think this is going to end up in the streets of America. I think Trump is going to win. I think it’s going to be contested. I see, prior to November 3rd, all hell breaking out. I said this 25 years ago, and I see us going into a civil war. The idea that there is a political solution to a spiritual problem is baloney.”
Join Greg Hunter as he talks to radio host, filmmaker and top selling author Steve Quayle as he talks about his upcoming video conference called “Final Warning, Brace for Impact.”
"'Let Me Explain What Happens Next...' - A Reader Sums It All Up Very Ominously"
"'Let Me Explain What Happens Next...' -
A Reader Sums It All Up Very Ominously"
by 'Austrian Peter'
"A reader recently wrote me a long letter on how he feels about all this ‘Plandemic’ stuff. I thought it would be good to share it as there is so much in it which rings bells of truth for me...
"I’ve just woken up after reading ZeroHedge late into the night. I awoke with the conviction that Covid is being used to roll out a police state: "They know it’s not deadly, it’s no longer spreading and Lockdown is killing off the few small businesses which remain viable. Yet Boris now insists upon banning the assembly of more than 6 people. He has recalled some petty bureaucrats to act as street enforcers and requested people become snitches who report on their neighbors for any breaches of these guidelines. This automatically means we must now all fear our neighbors, or strangers who take our car number. How better to destroy the mutual trust upon which society is built?
Just think if one were to refuse to bend the knee. In Australia and Spain the police have been caught using excessive force against those not wearing masks. Intimidating isn’t it? I’m thinking I may have to start using one. Yet the science is clear – masks offer no protection.
So we know these new restrictions are not being driven by the authority’s concern for our health. And what is the difference between where we are now and making it normal for the police to come to your door and arrest you for a breach of their protocols? What is the difference between where we are now and an oppressive police state?
There is only one difference between now and full-on state oppression: A change in the Zeitgeist. They need an event that will change the mood of the people – an event or a series of events that make us afraid of ‘them’. A psychological shock that will give the police the conviction that things are so bad ‘a little force is necessary’ to ensure things don’t get out of control. And then, magically, the current ‘temporary restrictions’ become state oppression. What could that game changer be?
Imagine this November: The US has 100 cities descending into what looks like the start of civil war as patriots turn out to stop Antifa burning down Middle America. Kamala Harris is calling for the army to ‘evict’ Trump because he refuses to leave the White House on the grounds that he won the popular vote while the mail-in ballots were fraudulent.
For the Brits, Brexit has caused problems at the ports – among other things some foodstuffs are not getting through. Germany’s economy has cratered after the EU stopped them exporting cars to the UK (Trumps already tariffed them), and the EU’s bank has insisted Germany let the 500 non-viable, medium sized biz (currently kept alive with emergency funding) go bankrupt.
Deutsche Bank collapses and this initiates a global banking crisis. Europe has no way of saving its banks as all the European economies are so damaged and 20% of workers have already been laid off. It’s a Greek style banking crisis on steroids. People are pulling out cash in the expectation of daily cash limits. Physical gold will have already disappeared from the market place. So any biz with money in the bank is frantically buying bitcoin in an attempt to avoid their working capital being ‘bailed in’.
The banks will have already pulled the plug on their most vulnerable customers – the airlines – so virtually no planes are flying. Dover is jammed up with lorries lining the approach roads. So no one can leave Blighty. And if you did, the emergency measures intended to pre-empt Covid’s Second Wave require you to be kept in quarantine at your destination. Locked down in a hotel, under military guard (as in NZ), for 4 weeks at your own expense and with frequent testing to ensure you are not a carrier. With full bio-metric data being collected and filed on an EU wide register. In practice this means that travel becomes so fraught that escape from your homeland is just about impossible.
You get the gist? November could be the end of world as we know it’ (TEOTWAWKI). But my point is this: Why are we looking at such a catastrophe if their goal is not a police state? No one destroys the globe’s economy and creates the conditions for a 10 year Greater Depression by accident. This has to be a planned, intentional destruction of much of global civilization.
The evidence is overwhelming. This civilization has been purposefully destroyed. Right now we’re in an unreal time (like the beautiful summer just before WW1’s carnage). It’s like Wiley E Coyote who has gone over the cliff, is still running but not yet started to fall. But when we fall, how will people react as they realize that they will never work again, never pay off the mortgage, never collect their pensions? If we have state oppression and economic chaos by Christmas then what will be the next stage of their takeover?
The world’s economy is already doomed. The already broken supply chains ensure it can only get worse. Once the derivative market goes, and banks can no longer fund the credit lines crucial for importers and exporters, then trade will collapse and thus food supplies cease.
It would seem to be inevitable that America is going to see more conflict as the Dems & Soros show no signs of wishing to abort their color revolution. Maybe in 2021, maybe a year or two later, but there will come a time when a credit shortage leads to deflation. So the banks will print more and then rain down helicopter money which will lead to inflation. And then the currencies will start collapsing. Many people understand that this is inevitable. But what happens when people come to accept that money isn’t go to be worth the paper it’s printed on? And thus keeping a job may not be worth the danger of leaving your house or of leaving safety.
I summarize one of last night’s articles: “The beasts of burden don’t rebel, they just no longer show up. Not showing up can take a number of forms: early retirement, sick leave, a demand to work halftime, a workers’ compensation stress leave, and of course, resignation and quitting as in: “take this job and shove it”. They slip noiselessly into the cracks and crevasses and once they’re gone, there’s nobody left to replace them.”
As the Vital Few 4% realize the system no longer works for them and opt out, this will have an out-sized effect on the 64%, most likely urban dwellers, highly dependent on increasingly brittle, fragile services that depend on the Vital Few for their functionality. Think of London’s tube train drivers phoning in sick – ideology won’t matter.
Those dropping out may be Conservative or Progressive or they may have lost interest entirely in politics and all the other circuses that serve to distract the populace from the crises dissolving the glue that held the system together. “So I won’t get rich, that dream died a long time ago.” What I’m interested in now is getting my life back and getting the heck out of Dodge as things fall apart.”
The rich will escape to their holiday cottages. The poor will riot – but what then? As the social facade cracks, and the economic system breaks, there is neither a society nor an economy to fall back on. By Christmas it will be obvious that normality has gone for ever.
So what will ‘they’ do with millions of unemployed, frightened people? If ‘they’ leave the internet on then the people will start to organize – first politically – but when that doesn’t work, riots and then finally revolution. Turn it off and they will riot without being organized. Turn off phones and all hell will break out. Don’t turn them off and the kids will organize against the state – trash cars or burn down the local police station. Have you noticed how some police stations look like forts?
My point is that it’s very hard not to see ‘events’ hitting the fan this November. And once they do it’s very hard to see life ever going back to stability, let alone ‘normality’. Rather, there will be an overwhelming need to control {oppress} the population before they take over the state. But what do you do with millions of unemployed in a failed economy who are doomed to losing their currency, long term poverty and probably food shortages. There is only one thing ‘they’ can do. Kill them.
Ideally, for the elite, Covid’s Second Wave will have a higher morbidity rate. Enough to steadily reduce the population but not so fast they can’t be buried in plague pits. It would have to be bad enough to justify a harsh Lockdown but it’s difficult to see that being feasible without giving the people electricity, internet & food and the money to pay for it. And even then it’s only a temporary fix as Lockdown can’t last for ever. Permanent Lockdown would soon destroy the currency which will mean no electricity or food.
Maybe Covid-19 v1.0 was supposed to kill off more people but it failed. Or maybe it worked as intended – they didn’t want to risk killing off too many in case the Lockdown failed and we revolted. But I don’t see they have much choice now. ‘The Fourth Turning’ will be turbulent until 2025 and things won’t really be resolved until 2030. How are they going to manage us for another 10 years? How will they control us? Feed us?
They can start a war but no one is going to turn up. Fight a war for the elite? Use a gun to kill people you don’t know? That’s not going to happen. And they need to preserve the professional soldiers to ‘maintain the peace’ in the cities. So what options do they have but to release a more potent bio-weapon – nuclear war perhaps?
One of the scary things about working through ‘their’ options is that they don’t have many. Things have gone too far – they’ve destroyed the world’s economy. The system is stuffed. What are ‘they’ going to do with 2bn unemployed people. Even if there is enough food but the US has a developing dust bowl, Africa’s suffered huge locust devastation, and China’s preparing for food shortages. How do unemployed people pay for it? Who can give them money without destroying the currency or if the currency is already destroyed?
A simple thing like the current fall in the number of sunspots is indicating an immediate future of colder weather and lower crop yields. Add into that, fuel shortages for agricultural machinery, lack of fertilizer – Nitrogen is made by burning lots of oil, lack of supply lines, and loss of credit lines. With people in Lockdown ‘they’ would be relying on a planned economy (not a free market) which is going to be inefficient. A planned economy is completely incapable of ensuring a stable food supply when there are shortages and the world is chaotic.
It’s not even feeding our cities that will be prime problem. It will be feeding the cities in Mexico and North Africa. They can’t cope with food price inflation. But they won’t starve – they’ll flood into the USA or cross the Mediterranean – lucky us! And what will Erdogan in Turkey do to feed his people – nothing good! If there are real food shortages then note that there are huge Muslim populations in France & Sweden, Turks and refugees in Germany, Pakistani ghettos in UK and plenty more where they all came from.
I’m feeling concerned. The problem is I can’t see Brexit solving our problems. Sure, it may not exacerbate them as much as I fear. November’s events may not trigger us into a state of oppression. But do you see my point? Things have got so bad, they can only get worse. November is bound to see some changes and they may well trigger a change in the Zeitgeist, though how significant depends on ‘events, dear boy, events’. But whatever happens I think it’s virtually guaranteed that both the economy and society will keep on deteriorating.
Do you think I’m right? Will November be the tipping point? Is there any way back? Will there be anything to go ‘back’ to?
Or else, is it a case of: “we’re doomed, I tell ya, doomed”. And what happens when more people work out that the elites have created a situation where their only option is to rapidly reduce the population! Famine will lead to uncontrollable social conflict, perhaps with Muslims massacring whites in general or the local Jewish populations in particular. I think that much conflict could see ‘them‘ lose control.
Thus it’s hard to see any other viable method than a bio-weapon. Agenda 21 could be implemented on schedule. And if not, the solution will need to be applied within a few years, certainly before 2025. Timing may depend on vaccine production as there will have to be at least enough vaccine for essential workers, the police, the military and the management class if the elite are to retain control."
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Related:
"Covid-19 Pandemic Update 9/24/20"
By David Leonhardt
SEP 24, 2020 12:03 AM ET:
Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 31,861,800
people, according to official counts, including 6,959,409 Americans.
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Updated 9/24/20, 4:23 AM ET
Click image for larger size.
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Timely Repost: “Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”
Full screen mode suggested.
“Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song
Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”
By Melanie Curtin
“Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here’s a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one’s health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.
Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.
According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- “Weightless”- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants’ overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.
Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created “Weightless”, Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener’s heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.
When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer’s, or influenza.
In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you’ve got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.
Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, “‘Weightless’ was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous.” So don’t drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:
10. “We Can Fly,” by Rue du Soleil (Café Del Mar)
9. “Canzonetta Sull’aria,” by Mozart
8. “Someone Like You,” by Adele
7. “Pure Shores,” by All Saints
6. “Please Don’t Go,” by Barcelona
5. “Strawberry Swing,” by Coldplay
4. “Watermark,” by Enya
3. “Mellomaniac (Chill Out Mix),” by DJ Shah
2. “Electra,” by Airstream
1. “Weightless,” by Marconi Union
I made a public playlist of all of them on Spotify that runs about 50 minutes (it’s also downloadable).”
"Hotel Industry Apocalypse Getting Worse: 2 Of 3 US Hotels Say They Wont Last Six More Months!"
Full screen mode suggested.
"Hotel Industry Apocalypse Getting Worse: 2 Of 3 US Hotels
Say They Wont Last Six More Months!"
by Epic Economist
"A new Big Short is being formed due to a catastrophic meltdown on the hotel industry sector. The CMBS short that once pointed to malls, now shifted its concerns to hotels, and hedge funds are already pilling up into the Big Short 3.0. Today, we will scrutinize a recent study that shows 74% of US hotels expect to lay-off even more employees, while two-thirds of them are likely to close their doors for good within the next six months. As of now, it's been clear that a real recovery is out of the horizon, so let's dive into another investigation to get a better grasp of the new unfoldings of the economic collapse. Stay with us and don't forget to like this video, share it with your friends, and subscribe to our channel to keep updated with the next chapters of the 21st-century Great Depression.
Since the sanitary outbreak struck America, shaking the grounds of the fragile economy, the hospitality industry has been reeling and constantly needing federal relief. The American Hotel and Lodging Association (AHLA) released a research disclosing alarming new data pointing to a downfall in the sector. Right now, 68 percent of hotels have less than half of their normal staff working full time, and more than two-thirds of hotels revealed they would not be able to last six more months at the current projected revenue and occupancy levels, while half of the hospitality owners surveyed affirmed they are in risk of foreclosure. Additionally, 74 percent of hotels said they would be forced to lay off more employees if they don't receive further government assistance.
A month ago, another poll published by the AHLA showed that the unemployment rates within the hospitality and leisure sector was at 38 percent, which configures almost four times that the national average of 10.2 percent. In an attempt to save the industry, the organization is appealing to lawmakers for an urgent pass on additional federal relief. Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the AHLA, said "it's time for Congress to put politics aside and prioritize the many businesses and employees in the hardest-hit industries. Hotels are cornerstones of the communities they serve, building strong local economies, and supporting millions of jobs. Every member of Congress needs to hear from us about the urgent need for additional support, so that we can keep our doors open and bring back our employees."
The AHLA survey found that urban hotels have been particularly affected and their occupancy rates are increasingly dropping, having only 38 percent of their capacity in use. Meanwhile, the hospitality-data provider STR released a study that indicates the average occupancy rate for all US hotels last month was 48.6 percent, marking a minor upturn of 1.6% compared to July. That signaled the lowest occupancy rate for any August since the STR started recording this data in 1985, and the company declared to believe that US hotel demand will not fully recover until 2023.
"Our industry is in crisis. Thousands of hotels are in jeopardy of closing forever, and that will have a ripple effect throughout our communities for years to come. We need help urgently to keep hotels open so that our industry and our employees can survive and recover from this public-health crisis," said Rogers on a recent note. The CEO also warned that if by the end of this month business travels don't resume and funding from the Paycheck Protection Program runs out, over 8,000 hotels are in danger of closure.
According to the latest Manhattan Lodging Index from PricewaterhouseCoopers, almost 60% of Manhattan hotels are still closed. As a result, the report indicated that roughly 61,450 hotel rooms in Manhattan had not reopened until early September, and nearly 2,700 of these are likely to be shuttered permanently.
The current collapse boosted by the health crisis was fast becoming the most significant event to ever impact their business; that includes the 12-month period after 9/11 and the financial crisis of 2009. At the point, he noted that the development pipeline has not ground to a complete halt. "We’ve been signing deals and we have development committees that are meeting monthly. The volume is lighter and the numbers will be lower than we anticipated but they won’t be zero," he said.
In any case, the shift seen in trade flows have been pointing that the delinquencies on hospitality property loans are soaring at unprecedented levels, even beginning to exceed those in retail, and now it is likely to form the next Big Short on CMBX S9 BBB- tranche due to its exposure to the sector. That is to say, the collapse of the hospitality industry may as well be the most profitable short in recent history, even though the Fed's policies have effectively made shorting almost impossible."
"The Silent Exodus Nobody Sees: Leaving Work Forever"
"The Silent Exodus Nobody Sees: Leaving Work Forever"
by Charles Hugh Smith
The exodus out of cities is getting a lot of attention, but the exodus that will unravel our economic and social orders is getting zero attention: the exodus from work. Like the exodus from troubled urban cores, the exodus from work has long-term, complex causes that the pandemic has accelerated. These are the core drivers of the exodus from work.
1. Labor's share of the economy has been in multi-decade decline. It's easy to blame globalization and/or automation--and it's true that the decline in labor's share accelerated from 2000 on. But this trend began around 1970, long before China joined the World Trade Organization and the advent of "software eating the world." (see chart below)
2. While it's convenient for those reaping the big gains (see chart below) to blame globalization and/or automation, the real driver was financialization - the neoliberal move to deregulate finance so it could turn everything into an exploitable "market" that could be made to serve one master: shareholder value, the innocuous-sounding code-phrase for anything goes and winner takes most - if you're rich.
Shareholder value was the super-wealthy's self-serving justification for unlimited greed as corporations went from being enterprises serving communities, the national interest, employees, customers and shareholders to financialization machines whose sole purpose was enriching insiders via loading the company with debt to pay huge bonuses to top managers, stock buybacks funded by debt, the abandonment of trustworthy accounting principles and so on.
Financialization and the deification of shareholder value sluiced all the gains into the hands of the few at the top at the expense of the many. As the chart below indicates, the top 0.1% enjoyed income gains of around 350% since 1979 while the bottom 90% barely topped 20%--a number that would be sharply negative if real-world inflation were included.
Simply put, the bottom 90% - wage-earners - lost ground over the past four decades of financialization while the wealthy winners of financialization became super-wealthy. The rewards of labor/work have diminished to an extraordinary degree for the bottom 90%, and even the 91% - 99% bracket has found their labor has mostly served to enrich those above them.
These trends will drive both the top wage-earners and the bottom wage earners out of the workforce. The managerial class that keeps the whole machine glued together can either retire or use their human and financial capital to find other less stressful ways to make a living and downsize their expenses to match their reduced income.
Some will be voluntary, many will be involuntary, but the results will be the same: a mass exodus of hard-to-replace skilled workers. This is what I'm calling the take this job and shove it exodus.
Once the Federal Reserve starts sending "free money" directly to households, many at the bottom of the pay scale will realize they too can take this job and shove it. "In Unprecedented Monetary Overhaul, The Fed Is Preparing To Deposit "Digital Dollars" Directly To "Each American" (Zero Hedge)
'I cry before work': US essential workers burned out amid pandemic. Essential workers reported stress caused by increased workloads, understaffing, fears over Covid and struggles in enforcing social distancing. (The Guardian)
What few well-paid apologists seem to realize is that to equal the purchasing power of the minimum wage I earned in 1970 ($1.65/hour), the minimum wage would have to be close to $20/hour now. The absurdly under-reported rate of official inflation (the Consumer Price Index) claims that a minimum wage of $12/hour now equals the purchasing power of $1.65/hour in 1970, but since I've kept records of all expenses I can report that this is totally false.
As the chart below shows, wages' share of the economy has been in a relentless 50-year slide. The entire machinery of inflation calculation has been driven by the desperate need to mask the true collapse of the purchasing power of wages.
Once the workforce awakens to this, the silent exodus out of the workforce will gather into a flood tide. Permanent unemployment payments, Universal Basic Income (UBI), free Fed money--regardless of the program or name, these will enable a mass exodus of those at the bottom of the workforce pay scale while burnout will also decimate the ranks of essential managerial / skilled workers.
It's payback time, people. Hey, Financial Aristocracy, clean your own floors and slaughter your own meat. Hey, corrupt politicos and apparatchiks, wipe your own tables and watch your own brats. The take this job and shove it exodus is silently gathering momentum.
The Protected Class of pundits, technocrats, flunkies, toadies and enforcers believes the take this job and shove it exodus is "impossible", just as everyone believed the Titanic was unsinkable. Just as the Titanic sinking went from "impossible" to inevitable, so will the take this job and shove it exodus move from "impossible" to inevitable."
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"The Fourth Turning: 'Dark Years Are Here'"
"The Fourth Turning: 'Dark Years Are Here'"
by Egon von Greyerz
"In an ephemeral world, few things survive. I am not talking about species or human beings whose existence on earth is also transitory. Instead I am referring to social and financial systems which are now coming to an end. In July 2009 I wrote an article called The Dark Years Are Here. It was reprinted again in September 2018. Here is an extract from my original article:
“The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different types of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.
How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval.
This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.
All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”
The Inevitable Fall Of Society: Neil Howe’s book 'The Fourth Turning' had just been published when I wrote the article and it has since attained great fame. We are now in the final 8 years of his 20 year cycle and the most dramatic part of the cycle has just started which is the Fourth Turning.
In my 2009 article, I thought that the downturn was more imminent. But although I was slightly out on the timing, it doesn’t change the inevitable fall of the whole fabric of society in the next few years, be it commercial, financial or social.
Since 2009, global debt has doubled to $280 trillion and risk has increased exponentially. The final stage of the collapse started in August of 2019 with the central banks panicking and embarking on a massive money printing spree due to major problems in the financial system.
Cpronavirus – A Catalyst: As I have stated previously, Coronavirus which started in early 2020, is not the reason for the current downturn in the world economy. It was just a catalyst. For some reason, when cycles are about to accelerate hard down, the trigger seems to be the worst possible. Although I have often talked about disease as one potential catalyst, I did not expect it to come now and cause a total lockdown of parts of the economy and society in so many countries.
When you are approaching the end of a financial era or cycle, it is very difficult to predict exactly how it will all end. Very few people understand that we are now living on borrowed time. But there is absolutely no doubt that we are now at the end of the end and of a major cycle, whether that takes 8 years as Howe predicts or it all happens much faster, is totally irrelevant.
The Unprepared Could Lose Everything: The risk is here now and if you don’t prepare for this, you are not just likely to lose whatever wealth you have but also your job, pension or social security depending on your circumstances. And if you live in a city, you are also likely to be affected by social unrest and crime plus a breakdown of services like medical care, schooling, law and order etc.
Many people are today trying to get out of the cities as a result of Coronavirus and the shut down of offices and shops as well as increased crime rates. For the wealthy minority, this is not a big problem but for normal people, it is not self-evident to just move out. But it is very clear that home working will become much more prevalent and many cities will become ghost towns. Tax revenue will decline dramatically and the authorities will not be able to keep up even simple services such as water, sanitation or cleaning. Also, many retail outlets and restaurants as well as offices in cities will close due to lack of customers, crime and out of town or online shopping. This trend has of course already started in many cities. In the City in London (Financial District), there are now very few people working. Only some shops or restaurants are open and the ones that are, are hemorrhaging financially.
The Deluge Could Come Sooner: Coming back to Howe’s 8 remaining years of the Fourth Turning, it is of course an approximate number and not absolute. The way I see it is that it will take up to 8 years and maybe less for the artificial edifice that the world has created to collapse. But it could also happen a lot quicker.
What I mean by artificial edifice is firstly all the fake assets that have been created due to central banks deliberate profligacy. Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, the bankers have taken total control of the money system. From 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, it became a total free for all for the (central) bankers. They could create unlimited amounts of money for their own benefit. Standing nearest the printing press is a major advantage when you print money. President Mugabe in Zimbabwe discovered this. By using the money from the printing press first, he could spend it quickly or buy dollars before the value of the printed money collapsed.
Printed Money Doesn't Reach Ordinary People: In the US, the Fed has since the latest crisis started in August 2019, printed $3.3 trillion, and most of it since March 2020. Very little of this money has reached ordinary people. If it had, it would have meant a contribution of $25,000 to every one of the 130 million households in the US. Although the printed is basically worthless, it might have had some short term beneficial effect on the broad economy.
But no, money printing is not for ordinary people. It is for the bankers and the wealthy and add more fuel or liquidity to already massively overvalued asset markets rather than reaching the people who really need it. This has caused the Nasdaq to go up by 62% since late March and the Dow by 52%.
DOW 50,000 – GOLD $50,000? In a recent article I discussed that we could see a liquidity fuelled meltup in stocks making the Dow double to say 50,000. Since I expect the Dow/Gold ratio to reach 1 to 1 or below (like in 1980 Dow 850 Gold $850), gold could at the same time reach $50,000 as inflation rises. As I consider stocks overbought and overvalued today, there is no fundamental or even technical reason for this to happen. Since markets today have nothing to do with fundamentals or sound valuation principles but are only liquidity driven, this kind of move is not impossible.
But investors must understand that I think it would be very high risk to stay fully invested in stocks currently. This is like buying the Nasdaq in 1999 to take part in the final rise but then to ride it all the way down to an 80% loss.
Much better instead to own gold, which fundamentally and technically is still early in a long term uptrend, kindly fuelled daily by central bank money printing. If the 50,000 forecast for the Dow and Gold would materialize, the Dow would double and Gold would go up 25x which is clearly a much better risk.
The US Is Bankrupt: Let’s face it, the US is bankrupt. No country, company or individual could lose money every year for 90 years and still be standing. (see my article). Normally the currency of such a country should have faded into oblivion. Well the dollar almost has since it is down 98% in real terms or gold since 1971 and down 85% since 2000. The only reason the dollar hasn’t disappeared totally yet is due to the Petrodollar. A major part of dollar assets are kept outside of the US due to the dollar liquidity created by the petrodollar.
The Petrodollar was created in the early 1970s by Nixon and the then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. They feared after the closing of the gold window that the dollar’s reserve currency role would diminish significantly. To save the dollar, Saudi Arabia was offered total military protection by the US on the condition that all oil trading would only be in dollars. Saudi Arabia would also buy substantial military equipment from the US.
The Imminent Demise Of The Dollar: This was a very clever arrangement and is the sole reason why the dollar is still standing. But the combination of a rapidly deteriorating US financial position and countries like China, Russia and Iran gradually trading in their own currencies, will soon precipitate the dollar’s demise.
Comparing currencies to each other is really a futile exercise since they are all going to ZERO. There is no prize for getting to the bottom first. Still in this exercise of relativity, it looks like the dollar will reach the bottom before the others. Having already lost 98% of its value in the last 50 years, the final 2% will not take that long. But remember that this 2% fall means a 100% loss of the dollar’s value from here.
Many people are very negative about the Euro due to the major problems in the EU. It is totally correct that the Euro is also a very weak and artificial currency. The Euro is virtually worth the same in dollars as on its launch on January 1st 1999. But right now, the Euro, in spite of its problems, technically looks stronger than the dollar.
So a crashing dollar over the next few years is virtually guaranteed and will act as a detonator which will blow up the US economy.
Also in the next 2-3 years we will see collapsing debt markets in the US and globally. Most debt in the world consists of printed money with no underlying real assets backing. Massively overvalued assets is backed by debt which will become totally worthless since it is only based on manufactured money issued by a printing press or a computer. When $10s of trillions are created with no labour, goods or service having been produced, that money clearly has ZERO value.
Interest Rates To Rise Strongly: We will not have permanent zero rates as the FED and Ray Dalio say. There are two virtual certainties coming before the imminent mega crisis is over. The first will be the collapse of the currency system as I discussed above. The second certainty is the collapse of credit markets including bonds. The manipulation of rates will totally fail. Central banks will try to keep short rates low but will lose control of the long rates. As insolvent governments and corporates start to default, investors, including sovereign, will dump bonds.
Bond prices will collapse and rates go to at least the levels in the 1970s to early 1980s of 15-20%. The combination of hyperinflation and defaulting borrowers will see many bonds going to zero and rates to infinity. As long rates rise, they will pull the short rates up regardless of central banks attempts to hold them down. This will lead to the demise of the bond market. Obviously, central banks will frenetically print trillions or even quadrillions as derivatives disappear into a black hole. But to no avail except for panic and hyperinflation.
Not The Time For Omphaloskepsis: So now is not the time for omphaloskepsis (navel gazing) or for investors to gloat about their stock market gains. Because the world is now entering a phase not seen for hundreds or maybe 2,000 years. Yes, stocks could meltup one final time before the total collapse but if they do, that will most likely be accompanied by a very weak dollar.
Don't Measure Your Wealth In Worthless Fiat Currencies: To measure your assets in a fiat currency, be it dollars, euros or pounds, is absolute madness. Why do you measure your wealth in something that in real terms has declined by 98% since 1971 and 85% since 2000. It might feel good for a moment but when you realise that these gains are just paper profits that are not only meaningless but will evaporate totally in the next few years as stocks and paper money implode together.
And don’t for a second believe that the assets you own whether they are stocks, bonds or property are really worth the thousands or millions that they are valued at in fake money. The imminent wealth destruction will soon reveal to investors that their assets are only worth a fraction of the imaginary value they have today.
Central banks will not save the world, they can’t. Because how can you solve a debt problem with more worthless debt or how can you create wealth by issuing more debt. That Ponzi scheme is now finished for a very long time. Physical gold (and silver) will in the next few years reveal the total delusion that the financial system has rested on. People who are not protected should take heed."
“The Bubbles Will Destroy US Economy; JP Morgan Guilty; Stock Market On Borrowed Time”
Jeremiah Babe,
“The Bubbles Will Destroy US Economy;
JP Morgan Guilty; Stock Market On Borrowed Time”
Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! Silver Slammed, Gold And Crypto Fall, Stocks Drop"
Gregory Mannarino,
"Alert! Silver Slammed, Gold And Crypto Fall, Stocks Drop"
Musical Interlude: Moby, "Love Of Strings"
Moby, "Love Of Strings"
Beautiful! Full screen mode suggested!
"A Look to the Heavens"
“What created this unusual planetary nebula? NGC 7027 is one of the smallest, brightest, and most unusually shaped planetary nebulas known. Given its expansion rate, NGC 7027 first started expanding, as visible from Earth, about 600 years ago. For much of its history, the planetary nebula has been expelling shells, as seen in blue in the featured image. In modern times, though, for reasons unknown, it began ejecting gas and dust (seen in red) in specific directions that created a new pattern that seems to have four corners. These shells and patterns have been mapped in impressive detail by recent images from the Wide Field Camera 3 onboard the Hubble Space Telescope.
Click image for larger size.
What lies at the nebula's center is unknown, with one hypothesis holding it to be a close binary star system where one star sheds gas onto an erratic disk orbiting the other star. NGC 7027, about 3,000 light years away, was first discovered in 1878 and can be seen with a standard backyard telescope toward the constellation of the Swan (Cygnus).”
“Tenderness and Silence”
“Tenderness and Silence”
by Chet Raymo
“It’s been a long, long time since I read “Justine”, the first volume in Lawrence Durrell’s “Alexandrian Quartet”, but one phrase sticks in my mind. As I recall, Justine, the woman with whom the narrator is having an affair, is questioning him as to why he doesn’t take seriously their friends’ philosophical conversations. You always sit there smiling, she chides, or something to that effect. He tells her that anyone who takes really seriously the inextricable tangle of human thought can only respond with “ironic tenderness and silence.”
What she took as condescension or disinterest was actually bemused detachment. The more passionately the friends debated politics, religion, human relationships, the meaning of it all, the more they became attached to fragments of the whole. The more they saw clarity, the more they missed nuance. The more they corralled truth into mutually exclusive categories, the more the oneness of things escaped their grasp.
I didn’t sufficiently appreciate this thought when I was a young man. Perhaps I still don’t. The fact that I am writing these posts is an offense against silence, but hopefully they embrace a certain ironic tenderness.”
- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/
Free Download: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, "The Little Prince"
Free Download:
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, "The Little Prince"
by Kirstie Pursey
“‘The Little Prince’, by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, is a children’s story with some very profound meanings and some quotes that will really make you think. I have to admit that I never read the ‘Little Prince’ as a child. I think I wouldn’t have known what to make of it if I did. Even reading it as an adult I didn’t know what to make of it!
However, it is clear that “The Little Prince” touches on some very deep themes about the nature of life, love, friendship and more. The following Little Prince quotes show just how many philosophical themes are discussed in this small, but profound work.
The story tells of a pilot who crashes into the Sahara desert. He is attempting to fix his damaged plane when a little boy appears as if from nowhere and demands that he draws him a sheep. Thus begins a strange, enigmatic friendship that is both heartwarming and heartbreaking. The Little Prince, it turns out, comes from a small asteroid where he is the only living being apart from a rather demanding rose bush. The Little Prince decides to leave his home and visit other planets to find knowledge. The story tells of these encounters with rulers of strange worlds and de Saint-Exupéry has opportunities to demonstrate some philosophical themes that will make readers think.
On earth, as well as meeting the pilot, The Little price meets a Fox and Snake. The fox helps him to truly understand the rose and the snake offers him a way to return to his home planet. But his return journey comes at a high price. The book’s bittersweet ending is both thought-provoking and emotional. I would definitely recommend that you read “The Little Prince” if you haven’t already.
It is one of the most beautiful and profound children’s books there are. If you have older children, then you might like to read it with them as it can be a little overwhelming for them to read alone. In the meantime, here are some of the best and most thought-provoking Little Prince quotes:
• “It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye.”
• “A rock pile ceases to be a rock pile the moment a single man contemplates it, bearing within him the image of a cathedral.”
• “All grown-ups were once children… but only a few of them remember it.”
• “Well, I must endure the presence of a few caterpillars if I wish to become acquainted with the butterflies.”
• “Grown-ups never understand anything by themselves, and it is tiresome for children to be always and forever explaining things to them.”
• “The most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or touched, they are felt with the heart.”
• “It is much more difficult to judge oneself than to judge others. If you succeed in judging yourself rightly, then you are indeed a man of true wisdom.”
• “It is the time you have wasted for your rose that makes your rose so important.”
• “I am who I am and I have the need to be.”
• “No one is ever satisfied where he is.”
• “One day, I watched the sun setting forty-four times……You know…when one is so terribly sad, one loves sunsets.”
• “People where you live, the little prince said, grow five thousand roses in one garden… Yet they don’t find what they’re looking for… And yet what they’re looking for could be found in a single rose.”
• “But the conceited man did not hear him. Conceited people never hear anything but praise.”
• “What matters most are the simple pleasures so abundant that we can all enjoy them…Happiness doesn’t lie in the objects we gather around us. To find it, all we need to do is open our eyes.”
• “Where are the people?” resumed the little prince at last. “It’s a little lonely in the desert…” “It is lonely when you’re among people, too,” said the snake.”
• “What makes the desert beautiful,’ said the little prince, ‘is that somewhere it hides a well…”
• “For me, you are only a little boy just like a hundred thousand other little boys. And I have no need of you. And you have no need of me, either. For you, I’m only a fox like a hundred thousand other foxes. But if you tame me, we’ll need each other. You’ll be the only boy in the world for me and I’ll be the only fox in the world for you.”
• “To forget a friend is sad. Not everyone has had a friend.”
• “Only the children know what they are looking for.”
• “Sometimes, there is no harm in putting off a piece of work until another day.”
• “I should have judged her according to her actions, not her words.”
• “Nevertheless he is the only one of them all who does not seem to me ridiculous. Perhaps that is because he is thinking of something else besides himself.”
• “The one thing I love in life is to sleep.”
• “The machine does not isolate man from the great problems of nature but plunges him more deeply into them.”
• “And when your sorrow is comforted (time soothes all sorrows) you will be content that you have known me.”
Closing thoughts: I hope you have enjoyed these ‘Little Prince’ quotes. Admittedly, they are sometimes difficult to fathom at first. However, like many things in life, the more you think about them, the more they begin to make sense. This is not an easy book to read and the bittersweet ending may leave you feeling a little heartbroken. However, the book offers so many insights into the human condition that it is well worth the time spent thinking about the philosophical ideas contained between the covers.”
Freely download “The Little Prince”, by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, here:
“Live Webcams Give Unique View Of Alaskan Bears Fishing For Salmon”
“Live Webcams Give Unique View Of Alaskan Bears Fishing For Salmon”
by Lee Rannals
“New webcams have been set up for the Internet public’s viewing, and this time they are capturing the iconic scene of bears snatching their lunch out of a river. Explore.org set up live HD video streams of giant brown bears in Alaska catching salmon in Katmai National Park. Anyone with an Internet connection can now watch these bears catching their dinner by typing “explore.org/bears” in their browser by clicking the links above.
The Brooks Falls cam is located on the banks of a five foot high waterfall, where as many as thirty bears have been spotted at a time catching salmon trying to make their way upstream to spawn. Another camera is located at the mouth of Brooks River and the entrance of Naknek Lake, where nearly 100 bears in the area utilize the lower river to feast on salmon and raise their young before hibernation.
Explore.org said that it will be unleashing additional cameras in the area, one of which will feature an area showing off a part of the river with safe water currents and levels where mothers and their cubs come to take advantage of the salmon-rich area. A Dumpling Mountain camera is also being set up to provide a bird’s eye view of the area, in addition to 10,000 Smokes, which is the site of the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century.
“A trip to Katmai National Park is a once in a lifetime event for most people and for nature and bear lovers and children everywhere, it is an impractical proposition,” Roy Wood, Chief of Interpretation at Katmai National Park, who spearheaded the initiative with explore.org, said in a press release. “By installing live cams we are giving people the chance to experience the bears, learn from their behaviors and develop the same strong emotional connection almost everyone who comes here has.”
The cameras are the latest edition to explore.org’s Pearls of the Planet initiative, which is a portfolio of video feeds installed throughout the world to show off animals in their natural habitats. This concept is driven by the idea of trying to educate people and deepen their connection to fall in love with nature again. “To me Alaska is one of the last great natural cathedrals on the planet–and the bears and salmon are the high priests in a scared place,” Charles Annenberg, founder of explore.org and VP of the Annenberg Foundation, said in a press release. “We hope people turn to this for inspiration and when they do, they will see lessons these creatures have for us- about cohabitation, instinct hand beauty.”
"The Culture War"
"The Culture War"
by Doug Casey
"Culture" is composed of the customs, traditions, and beliefs of a group of people. It’s a way of seeing the world and interpreting reality. It determines what’s right and wrong and good and evil. Culture is what ties people together or divides them. It’s a composite of religion, politics, economics, philosophy, and language - but the composite is more important than any one component.
Culture is what ties groups and countries together. When a cultural split develops - such as the one we now have in the US - a country cannot, and, more importantly, should not stay together. It’s poisonous to keep different cultures together in the same political unit. Politics is all about deciding who decides who gets what, how, and at whose expense. It can be fairly cordial if everybody shares the same culture. If they don’t, it’s a formula for disaster.
In the US, politics has become a contest of who gets to impose their will on the rest of the country. When that’s the case, a country is best off dividing. It shouldn’t be held together artificially or by force, but voluntarily. Freedom of association is necessary for a civil society. People generally prefer to associate with those with whom they share a culture. Birds of a feather do, in fact, flock together.
The alternative is chaos or even civil war. I suspect what we’ve seen in the last few months is only an overture to what’s coming. The US is no longer a country that is united by language, ideas, ethnicity, or anything else. It has become a multicultural domestic empire. The essence of an empire is coercion. The divide between the components of the US is growing and solidifying.
Politicians talk about "bringing us together." But that’s nonsense. Politics only brings people together by force - the way a pressure cooker brings things together. It may look like it’s succeeding for a while, but when the pressure builds enough, there’s an explosion. Cultures develop organically; political coercion can’t make disparate people like each other.
Apart from that, I’d argue the US has become too large, too complex, and too diverse to be governable. It’s very different from what it was at its founding—or even fifty years ago. For one thing, its central government is already totally bankrupt. Productive parts of the country will increasingly resent a corrupt Washington that supports itself, its cronies, and hordes of welfare recipients at their expense.
Perhaps the US should break up peacefully before the situation gets completely out of control. But how? The last time the US tried to divide, the result was the (incorrectly named) Civil War. The unpleasantness of 1861–1865 was not, in fact, a civil war, but a war of secession. The South simply wanted to go its own way, much as the colonies did in 1776. A civil war, by contrast, is one in which two or more parties try to take over the same government. That’s very different from wanting to part company.
The South should have been allowed to break off, in much the same way that Slovakia and the Czech Republic separated or the way that Yugoslavia divided into six republics - or, for that matter, the way that the Soviet Union broke up into 15 republics.
Abraham Lincoln created the poisonous meme that the states should be held together by force. Most people now think it’s some type of crime to even intimate that the US could - or should - break up. Interestingly, there are groups in California, Oregon, and Washington that are talking about it, not to mention millions of Hispanics that see the Southwest as the object of a Reconquista.
The coming election is certainly going to be the most important one since that of 1860, which installed Lincoln and after which Lincoln precipitated the War Between the States. Americans in blue counties and red counties have come to dislike one another on a visceral level. At this point, families can’t even get together for a Thanksgiving or Christmas without acrimony. The situation is quite serious, and the hysteria over COVID-19 combined with a collapsing economy has made it much worse. As outrageous as it sounds, the US should divide into at least two smaller units. Americans can then peacefully choose which version of America suits them.
As it stands, the election will be contested no matter which side wins, simply because the country has become totally polarized. No matter who wins, the other side is going to be terminally unhappy with the result. Last week, I spelled out the six reasons Biden (or at least the Democrats) are likely to win. No matter who wins, however, about half the country is going to be very unhappy. There’s likely to be some serious violence as the winning side tries to impose its values on the losing side.
We know the Republican candidate will be Mr. Trump. But it doesn’t make much difference who the Democratic candidate is at this point. The fact that Biden is borderline senile is irrelevant. They could probably run a chimpanzee in Biden’s place and expect the same result because this election is about cultural values in general, and hating Trump in particular. It has little to do with what Trump does or doesn’t believe; he has no philosophical center, no real core beliefs. But he’s a traditionalist, a cultural conservative. And he is very outspoken. That’s why he serves as an excellent lightning rod for the building storm.
Unfortunately, he’s also an authoritarian and a jingoist at heart. His supporters equate that with strength. Unfortunately, Americans from both parties will want an authoritarian to keep some semblance of order as things get wild and woolly. I still think the Dems will win for the reasons I spelled out last week, despite their probably having overplayed their hand with their support of Black Lives Matter and even Antifa - things which could still tip the balance in Trump’s favor. When it comes to a choice between order and ideology, the average guy prefers order.
The election is still close to an even odds bet for that reason, even though the polls (and my own reasoning, for what it’s worth) say the Democrats will win. But after the election, we’re going to see some major fireworks.
Next week, I’ll discuss what things will be like under both the Harris Regency and the Trump Regime. Either way, what’s going on signals a new era. It’s a catalyst, dividing "before" and "after," much the way the Kennedy assassination drew a line between the conservative 50s and the radical 60s."
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