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Wednesday, November 12, 2025

The Poet: Rainer Maria Rilke, "A Walk"

"A Walk"

"My eyes already touch the sunny hill.
going far ahead of the road I have begun.
So we are grasped by what we cannot grasp;
it has inner light, even from a distance -
and changes us, even if we do not reach it,
into something else, which, hardly sensing it,
we already are; a gesture waves us on
answering our own wave...
but what we feel is the wind in our faces."

- Rainer Maria Rilke

Chet Raymo, “The Radiance Of What Is”

“The Radiance Of What Is”
by Chet Raymo

“In the summer of 1936, as I nestled snug in my mother's womb, Fortune magazine sent the young writer James Agee and the photographer Walker Evans to rural Alabama to report on how the Great Depression was affecting the poorest of the poor. For eight weeks they lived with three impoverished sharecropper families. (Pictured below is the family of Bud Fields.)
Their combined work never appeared in Fortune, but it was published as a book- “Let Us Now Praise Famous Men”- in 1941. The book was not an immediate success, but decades later, after Agee won a posthumous Pulitzer for "A Death in the Family", it found a new audience and eventually a place in the American canon of literary and photographic masterpieces.

The book has a strange, difficult and self-lacerating Preamble in which Agee tries to understand what it is that he and Evans have done. Does art report or create? Have the two artists exploited the families they reported on? How do we discern the truth when we are burdened with so many limitations, preconceptions and personal agendas? How do we make ourselves neutral channels for what is and not for what we wish it to be? Is it possible to be "neutral"? Is it desirable?

These are questions that science and art struggle with perennially, each in its own way. These are questions that each of us should ask about our own constructions of reality. Agee writes: "For in the immediate world, everything is to be discerned, for him who can discern it, and centrally and simply, without dissection into science or digestion into art, but with the whole of consciousness, seeking to perceive it as it stands: so that the aspect of a street in sunlight can roar in the heart of itself like a symphony, perhaps as no symphony can: and all of consciousness is shifted from the imagined, the revised, to the effort to perceive simply the cruel radiance of what is."

Agee professes his desire to suspend imagination, so that "there opens before consciousness, and within it, a universe luminous, spacious, incalculably rich and wonderful in each detail, as relaxed and natural to the human swimmer, and as full of glory, as his breathing."

A marvelous aspiration. But impossible, of course. Science strives mightily for "objectivity." The artist too wants to reveal something real and wonderful, a cruel radiance. And always there, between our eyes and the world, is the imagination. And why not? It is the imagination that defines our humanity, the channel by which the world becomes conscious of itself. We read “Let Us Now Praise Famous Men” or look at Evans' photographs, and we see what is and what should be, creation roaring in the heart of itself and in our hearts too.”

"Something You Already Know..."

“Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get it and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done! Now if you know what you're worth then go out and get what you're worth. But ya gotta be willing to take the hits, and not pointing fingers saying you ain't where you wanna be because of him, or her, or anybody! Cowards do that and that ain't you! You're better than that!” 
- Rocky Balboa

"A Revision Of Belief..."

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.“
Nassim Taleb

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
- Mark Twain

"Government Reopened, But You Got Finessed!"

Full screen recommended.
Orlando Miner, 11/12/25
"Government Reopened, But You Got Finessed!"
Comments here:

"People Will Go Insane As They Lose Their Homes This Winter: Mass Evictions And Foreclosures Coming"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 11/12/25
"People Will Go Insane As They Lose Their Homes 
This Winter: Mass Evictions And Foreclosures Coming"
"Mass evictions and foreclosures are hitting thousands of families across America this winter, and people are losing their homes at a rate we haven't seen in years. This is going to be really, really difficult for a lot of people. In this video, we're looking at what's actually happening, families getting eviction notices after one missed payment, rent increases of $700 to $900 that wages can't keep up with, the economic pressure from government shutdowns and skyrocketing foreclosures, and why buying a home to escape this nightmare isn't even possible anymore with insurance companies pulling out and prices over $400,000.

The stories people are sharing are heartbreaking. These are families who did everything right, and they're still falling apart financially. And obviously, this isn't going to fix itself. So what can people do? Are there any options left? And what does this mean for the future Let me know down below if you're dealing with this where you live. Have you seen massive rent increases? I'd love to hear from you."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Huddersfield, Kirklees, United Kingdom
Thanks for stopping by!

"The World Wants to Be Deceived"

"The World Wants to Be Deceived"
by Brian Maher
“Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur.” - 
"The world wants to be deceived, so let it be deceived."

"We believe there is vast justice here. The world yearns to be deceived, eternally and infinitely deceived. Why else - sisters and brothers - do people attend magic shows… consult psychics… or read New York Times editorial columns? Why, indeed, do people vote? The answer, so far as we can discern, is because they wish to be deceived. The human craving to be deceived appears as natural as the human craving to exist. And we agree - if the world wants to be deceived, let the world be deceived.

Nasty, Brutish and Short: Life is “nasty, brutish and short,” in the words of Mr. Thomas Hobbes. He must grab something - anything  to soothe him and to ease his way across the perilous valley. As we have noted before: Like gazing into the midday sun, the normal human being cannot long gaze directly into reality. He can only approach it from an angle.

Hence the world’s desperate, eternal plea for soothing deception. Hence its iron embrace of frauds and pitchmen eager to gratify it. Hence the world’s infinite supply of frauds and pitchmen rising forth to meet the impossible demand. And the grimmer the reality… the greater man’s desperation to be conned, foxed and deceived. Consider his lot…

Cold, Hard Reality: A man is thrown unaskingly and unwillingly into this wicked and wrathful world. He is then dangled cruelly between two infinities - one behind him, one ahead of him - knowing his earthly candle will flicker, fade and fizzle. While he lives, he careens through space aboard an inconsequential chunk, wheeling around an inconsequential star, itself occupying an inconsequential corner of an inconsequential galaxy. That inconsequential galaxy is cast among an infinity of inconsequential galaxies.

Sit down momentarily with these bleak realities - if you can summon the steel. If you do not run a razor across your wrists within 30 seconds, you - friend - are one stoutheart. Believe it!

Next man confronts this elemental fact: Come his demise, the odds are excellent he will boil in pitch for all eternity. This we have on infallible authority - 1 Corinthians 6:9–10: "Do you not know that the unrighteous will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral, nor idolaters… nor thieves, nor the greedy, nor drunkards, nor revilers, nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God." Ninety-nine percent of humanity thus stands condemned - and 100% of the District of Columbia. Your editor is of course among them. He is guilty on five counts at least. Perhaps all counts.

Happy Delusions: Here are certain deceptions men cherish — cherished because they help him through this sorrowful vale…

• That wise and learned experts from ivied institutions can repeal the granite laws of economics…
• That deficits do not matter, that the ledgers need never square…
• That prosperity springs from the printing press, that money and wealth are identical twins, to have money is to have wealth. That the examples of Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, Weimar Germany, post-WWII Hungary - to name some - count nothing…
• Relatedly, that the addition of water to wine yields more wine instead of less wine. That is, that diluting the purchasing power of money yields not less money but more money…
• Relatedly, that a man can lunch cost-free…
• That plunging the nation into debt will raise it up into wealth…
• That the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out truthful labor statistics…
• That honest government exists…
• That man can cook and cool Earth…
That negative interest rates are positives…
•That democracy - the theory that the individual may be a dunce but that 330 million dunces are Einsteins - is a superior form of government…
• And perhaps the most enchanting and permanent of all the world’s delusions:
That this time is different.

How many stock market evangelicals, presently aflame with zeal for artificial intelligence stocks, are infested by this belief? We hazard the answer is handsome. How many cryptocurrency crusaders are similarly aflame with a parallel zeal? Again, we hazard the answer is handsome.

“Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur.” Not All Lies and Delusions Are Bad: Do we denounce the world in its cowardly resort to delusion and deception? Not in the least. As we have asked before: Why must the world peer defiantly into the fathomless pit? Why must it take the cold bath stoically and bravely?

Who can denounce the former beauty, presently wrecked with age, who wishes the mirror would show her a fabulous fiction? A full and honest trial of the facts would send the world forever under the bed, hopeless and resigned. No one would budge a jot in the course of his day. To what point?

And let it go into the record: Your editor is not exempt from this immemorial human need for delusion. He cherishes certain beliefs particular to his station and circumstances. Go at them honestly - he must concede - and they may fail rigorous scientific audit.

More Lies and Delusion: Among these are the beliefs…

• That he is vastly undersalaried and underappreciated for the exquisite labor he performs for his abominable employer…
• That he is wiser than 1,000 Solomons roped together…
• That he stands eight feet in height…
• That every maiden - from ocean to ocean - rolls her eyes yearningly at the thought of him….

Most delusionally of all, and against all reason: He cherishes the gorgeous fiction that the New York Metropolitan Baseball Club will seize another World Series title before he sinks unrighteously into the cauldron… to roast forevermore.

Thus your editor is in deepest sympathy with the world and its ceaseless quest to be deceived. For he shares the identical passion. The world would simply be unendurable without comforting fictions to stroke our hair, caress our gills and hold our hand.

Confronting Reality Is Far Worse Than a Stock Market Crash: Might some of the world’s delusions invite calamity? Almost certainly. We have the stock market and the economy close in mind. But whatever miseries collapse may inflict… they cannot approach the miseries of unceasing warfare with grim reality. Thus we speak our piece for delusion.

“All are lunatics,” said the great scalawag Ambrose Bierce… “but he who can analyze his delusion is called a philosopher.” And who wants to analyze his delusion? Who wants to be a philosopher? Yours in hopeless and eternal delusion..."

"Edward Gibbon: On The Seven Key Indicators Of Civilizational Decline"

"Edward Gibbon: On The Seven Key 
Indicators Of Civilizational Decline"
By Kaisar

"Most modern historians are weak. But there is one who stands out above the rest. I can think of no post-Enlightenment historian who better captured why civilizations wither and die than Edward Gibbon. His 1788 work "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" describes the process of collapse well, using Rome as the example. I highly recommend this read, even if using the abridged versions.

Here is a brief summary: "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" is a monumental work by Edward Gibbon, published in six volumes between 1776 and 1788. Gibbon’s magnum opus provides a comprehensive historical account of the decline and collapse of the Roman Empire, spanning from the height of its power to its eventual fragmentation and fall. The work is considered a masterpiece of historical literature and a key text in the study of the Roman Empire.

Gibbon begins with the reign of Marcus Aurelius in the second century AD and traces the history of the Roman Empire through its various phases, ultimately concluding with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. You can take his causes of decline from the fall of Rome and apply it to every major national collapse since then. We can summarize these causes into seven key categories:

Internal Decay: Gibbon argues that internal decay played a crucial role in Rome’s decline. This included moral decadence, corruption, and a loss of civic virtue among the ruling class.
Military Challenges: The Roman military, once a formidable force, faced challenges such as overextension, external invasions, and reliance on mercenaries, contributing to its decline.
Economic Issues: Economic factors, including heavy taxation, inflation, and a reliance on slave labor, are highlighted by Gibbon as contributing to the empire’s decline.
Religious Factors: Gibbon explores the role of religion in the decline, emphasizing the rise of Christianity and its impact on the traditional Roman values and institutions. This created a breakdown from the original tradition, and a splintering within the foundational values of the state.
Barbarian Invasions: External pressures from barbarian invasions, particularly by Germanic and Hunnic tribes, are obviously identified as significant contributors to the fall of the Western Roman Empire.
Administrative Inefficiency: Gibbon critiques the Roman administrative system, pointing to bureaucratic inefficiency, corruption, and a lack of responsiveness to emerging challenges.
Division of the Empire: The division of the Roman Empire into East and West is seen as a weakening factor, with the Western Roman Empire eventually succumbing to various pressures while the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) persisted for several more centuries.

Any of those sound familiar? I have just recently written on each one of these regarding the current American system:
Internal Decay: America Is Babylon
Administrative Inefficiency: Bureaucracy Will Destroy Us

If you didn’t know I was talking about Rome when you read the first list, you’d probably think this article was about the United States. Even the division piece – we don’t have an outright division yet, but the foundation is there, just as it was for Rome.

Remember: this work was written around 1788. When you read the above seven points, you would think it’s a critique of the current American state. But nope, this was Rome circa pre-collapse. It’s a great work, if you can stomach the sheer amount of content included. Those seven key indicators of decline are helpful to recognize; to properly discern the signs of the times. The lessons the book provides are phenomenal for extrapolating to future collapses. And pensively, to our own current condition."

Freely download "The Decline and Fall
 of the Roman Empire" here:

"If..."

If you were facing a firing squad, and we all are...
wouldn't you at least want to know why? 
And who stood you against the wall?

"I Pity You, Too..."

“Said a philosopher to a street sweeper, “I pity you. Yours is a hard and dirty task.” And the street sweeper said, “Thank you, sir. But tell me, what is your task?” And the philosopher answered saying, “I study man’s mind, his deeds and his desires.” Then the street sweeper went on with his sweeping and said with a smile, “I pity you, too.”
- Kahlil Gibran

"How It Really Is"

"We do not rest satisfied with the present. We anticipate the future as too slow in coming, as if in order to hasten its course; or we recall the past, to stop its too rapid flight. So imprudent are we that we wander in the times which are not ours, and do not think of the only one which belongs to us; and so idle are we that we dream of those times which are no more, and thoughtlessly overlook that which alone exists. For the present is generally painful to us. We conceal it from our sight, because it troubles us; and if it be delightful to us, we regret to see it pass away. We try to sustain it by the future, and think of arranging matters which are not in our power, for a time which we have no certainty of reaching. Let each one examine his thoughts, and he will find them all occupied with the past and the future. We scarcely ever think of the present; and if we think of it, it is only to take light from it to arrange the future. The present is never our end. The past and the present are our means; the future alone is our end. So we never live, but we hope to live; and, as we are always preparing to be happy, it is inevitable we should never be so."
- Blaise Pascal

Dan, I Allegedly, "Live Broke - You Need to Live on Less!"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 11/12/25
"Live Broke - You Need to Live on Less!"
"Discover how living broke can lead to true financial freedom! In today’s video, I’m sharing practical tips to help you live on less, save money, and take control of your financial future. From thrift shopping to negotiating deals, cutting unnecessary expenses, and embracing a frugal lifestyle, this is about changing the way we spend and live. It’s not about deprivation - it’s about smart decisions that lead to long-term success. I’ll dive into real-life examples, like how my daughter managed a no-spend year and saved a fortune, or how my friend snagged a luxury car for $30,000 less. Why spend more when you can find deals everywhere? Whether it’s lunch specials, thrift stores, or smart tech upgrades, there are countless ways to save without sacrificing what matters."
Comments here:

"From American Dream To Renter’s Hell: How Unrestricted Immigration Created Indentured Servants In Suburbia... On Purpose"

"From American Dream To Renter’s Hell: How Unrestricted 
Immigration Created Indentured Servants In Suburbia... On Purpose"
by John Wilder

"I think we can mark November, 2025 as the time when everyone under 40 officially became a tenant in the People’s Republic of Rent. Remember when “owning a home” meant apple pie, picket fences, and fighting with the HOA over the definition of lawn ornaments and why your butter statue of Adrienne Barbeau was definitely not prohibited? Yeah, that’s as gone as dialing a phone number and not having to listen to someone blabber in a foreign language about what number to press so that illegals can live here easily and comfortably.

Now? Housing has morphed into a Wall Street rent farm, where millennials and Zoomers wheelbarrow their student loans in a feeble attempt to bid against hedge funds and the latest border-crossing brigade. A free market? Sure, but it’s a free market where Pee Wee Herman has to box Mike Tyson. Trump highlighted the problem with a misstep: his genius plan for 50-year mortgages while comparing himself to that MAGA hero... FDR? I mean, it is a plan that is ultimately worthy of FDR. That is, if kids like dying with a noose of interest around their necks.

It’s dark. A 50-year mortgage is crack for the financially illiterate. It shaves off a few hundred dollars a month in interest payments to delay actual ownership of the house for fifty years. Some anon did an analysis. On X®, Darth Powell (@vladtheinflator) did a decent analysis. It’s below:
Double the interest paid. And even worse, since people often sell after seven years or so, they never build up any real equity in the house, just paying off interest. Oh, and did I mention that they’re floating fifteen year car loans? Yeah. Though people have been getting damaged on cars for quite a while.

Debt is a drug. It gets something now, for selling a bit of my life in the future, sort of like selling myself into indentured servitude. And housing is, while not a necessity, something that makes it easier to have a family. I myself have a mortgage. I could pay it off, but it’s at such a low interest rate, there’s not a good reason for me to do so since the interest rate I’m getting on that amount of cash higher. Yay!

But Robert A. Heinlein had a quote: “Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats of domestic felicity.”

He’s right. I’ve made the point before, and I’ll make it again: money and banks exist for us to do things in the real world. To manifest them and the markets as tools of profit is really the biggest infection our society has right now. To be clear – it’s possible to make any sort of bet that one would like to make in the market. It’s gambling. And in the end, go back to the beginning: the first rule of gambling is that The House always wins.

Letting The House make the decisions is why we are in this mess. Americans are too wealthy and don’t take on enough debt? Import poor people! They need debt, so we can sell debt to them! A major reason that there are unending streams of illegal and legal immigrants flooding the shores of this nation like EBT users showing up at the soda pop and chip aisle after the SNAP benefits reload is that they are profitable.

What about the current situation isn’t perfect for banks? Large numbers of consumers taking loans longer than the life of the asset. I recall that one gentleman I was acquainted with owned a large number of apartments. He described that is, “It’s like I have an army of slaves. They go out and work, and every month they give me money that they worked for.” That is how banks think of everyone, even their mothers. What about 2025 is something they don’t like? Owning all the houses? Having millions work hours each week just to pay interest?

They love 2025. They don’t particularly care about the outcome or if they destroy all of Western Civilization, as long as there’s a quarterly profit in it for them. Again, illegal and legal aliens are being subsidized both via direct welfare like SNAP, but also through programs like FHA loans. Not all of our problems with housing are downstream of immigration, but most of them are.

The most fundamental step is remigration. Voluntary, involuntary, it doesn’t matter. They need to go home. And, you can help. At least for the next three years, ICE is actually trying to get rid of illegals, so report them. They have quotas, so help them. Also, don’t be polite to them. They may be humans, sure, but they can be humans somewhere else.

Second, don’t buy products from companies that have replaced Americans with H-1Bs. This is harder since once an Indian gets in a company, their only goal is to go full Invasion of the Body Snatchers and replace everyone with Indians of their family (if possible) or caste (if they can’t hire their family). It’s like the Mafia, but without deodorant. Let your politicians know, especially if you’re living in a red state. Not about the deodorant bit, but about the replacement bit."

Bill Bonner, "Beyond Reckoning"

Bernini sculpture of an Angel on the Ponte Sant’Angelo, Rome, Italy.
"Beyond Reckoning"
by Bill Bonner

Baltimore, Maryland - "As expected, the shutdown came to an end in the customary way: both parties agreed to keep spending other people’s money. CBS News: "The final deal will include a 31-page continuing resolution that extends current levels of government funding through January 2026 to give lawmakers more time to finalize full-year spending bills"

But let’s pick up our theme from yesterday and examine it in daylight. Do our leaders actually know what they are doing? And how much of what they think they know is just self-serving claptrap? The conclusion we come to is that policymakers have created wretched fantasy of mumbo-jumbo statistics and jackass equations. Using these self-serving metrics, they pretend to quantify, measure, and control the economy.

But the formulae are bogus. And so is the ‘science’ behind them. Take the simplest, broadest, most dumb-assed assessment of economic performance - GDP. Everyone will tell you that it’s better for GDP to be going up than down. But is it?

When GDP is going up, they believe people are getting richer. Politicians take credit when GDP growth speeds up; they blame their predecessors when it goes down. But as an indicator of real wealth, happiness, or progress, GDP is worthless. All you have to do to raise GDP is to invite in more immigrants. As each one buses and schleps, total output goes up. Would that be better?

We’ve seen, too, that GDP captures credit-fueled spending, but not the cost of the debt that is dragged along behind. So, if the feds borrow and spend another $5 trillion, GDP would go up by a $5 trillion...would that be better? And in the US currently GDP growth is only positive because of massive investments in the AI sector. Oh how the angel wings flutter and flap there! That is to say, it’s more of a speculation than a fact.

Meanwhile, nearly half of GDP is government spending - state, local, and federal. Some of that is actually beneficial - roads, schools, etc. But at least half of the war budget, for example - $500 billion - is unnecessary and probably negative. In 1944, 75% of Germany’s GDP went for its war effort. The more tanks and artillery rolled off the Ruhr Valley assembly lines, the more Germany’s GDP rose. Who was better off? And if the US feds were to mount a major attack on Venezuela or Nigeria - GDP would go up. Would Americans be richer as a result?

And what about an unemployed man who raises his food - with a backyard full of fruits, vegetables, pigs, chickens, and goats - and heats his home with wood he chops himself? No income; few expenses. Is he not depriving the USA of GDP?

A few years ago, we reported on a case revealed by the New York Times. It was a ‘human interest’ story about a man diagnosed with terminal cancer who decided to return to his native Greece to finish off his life. This was a very unpatriotic thing to do. The US GDP never got a boost, neither from a long and costly battle with cancer...nor from a funeral service. No expensive lilies adorned his open casket. No hearse took him to the graveyard. No undertaker counted his fees. Instead, the S.O.B. spent the next 30 years tending his garden...drinking his own wine...and dancing to music of bouzouki and lyre ‘til late at night. He contributed almost nothing to GDP. Was that bad?

Policymakers set measurable goals. But the goals are scammy and the numbers are flim-flammy. And every ‘plus’ they advertise has a ‘minus’ lurking in the bushes. For instance, they say they will boost home ownership...or ‘create jobs.’ We saw how the feds encouraged home ownership after 2008. Lower interest rates were supposed to induce people to buy houses. And they did. And soon house prices were so high average people could no longer afford average houses. And while mortgage rates for honest families still averaged about 6%, the insiders on Wall Street - such as BlackRock or Invitation Homes  - were able to borrow at real rates of 1% or less. Using this advantage,they could outbid homeowners on more than half a million houses.

We’ve seen, too, that the Fed can diddle stock market prices higher with low rates. Then, POTUS tells us how this proves that he’s doing such a good job. Higher stock prices are a plus, right? But why? Most people are not long stocks; they are short. They don’t own them. So, when stocks go up, most people lose money (relatively). And in 1971, an average working man earned enough per year to buy nearly ten units of the Dow (ten of each of the stocks in the Dow average). Today, he would have to work more than six years to buy the same stocks. How is that better? Better for whom?

And what kind of thing are we dealing with? How come science and engineering stumbles? Just as medieval scholars couldn’t count angels, there are some things, today, beyond the economists’ numbers. Isn’t it really a ‘human interest’ story after all? More to come..."

"11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is In the Worst Shape That It Has Been Since The Great Recession"

"11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is In the Worst
 Shape That It Has Been Since The Great Recession"
by Michael Snyder

"Do you remember how bad things were in 2008 and 2009? It was an economic nightmare that shook the entire world, and now it appears that the sequel is upon us. As you will see below, many economic numbers are either as bad as they have been since the Great Recession or they are even worse than they were during the Great Recession. Despite what the mainstream media has been telling you, the truth is that the cold, hard facts prove that the U.S. economy has been rapidly heading in the wrong direction for years. Now we have reached a major tipping point, and it won’t take much to push us over the edge. If you doubt what I am saying, just keep reading. The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is in the worst shape that it has been since the Great Recession…

#1 U.S. consumer sentiment just continues to move in the wrong direction. In fact, U.S. consumer sentiment just fell to the second lowest reading ever…"Worries over the government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.

The university’s monthly Index of Consumer Sentiment posted a reading of 50.3 for the month, indicating a decline of 6.2% on the month and about 30% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 53.0 after October’s 53.6. Sentiment was last this low in June 2022 as inflation hovered around its highest level in 40 years. November’s reading was the second lowest going back to at least 1978."

#2 For years, U.S. consumers have been foolishly piling up enormous mountains of debt. Now the average U.S. credit score is falling at the fastest pace that we have seen since the Great Recession…"In another indication of a puttering economy, the average credit score in the U.S. has fallen by two points since this time last year. The credit scoring firm FICO said Tuesday that the average credit score for all U.S. consumers is now 715, down from 717 logged in October 2024. According to separately released FICO data, the decline marks the first time since 2009 during the Great Recession that the average FICO score has fallen by two points within one year."

#3 The employment market has really tightened up all over the nation. If you are looking for a temporary job this holiday season, it is being projected that holiday hiring with be at the lowest level that we have seen since the Great Recession…"Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to total between 265,000 and 365,000 roles this year, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, the National Retail Federation said Thursday. NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on the retail trade group’s conference call on that those hiring expectations “reflect the softening and slowing labor market.” It’s a significant drop from a year ago, when retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers, the retail trade group said.

#4 As hiring has gotten tighter, layoffs are way up. In fact, we just witnessed the most layoffs in a single month during the fourth quarter since 2008…"The report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, showed 153,074 job cuts announced in October, an increase of 183% from cuts announced in September and up 175% from the same month in 2024.

“This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008,” Challenger said in a release. That year was a pivotal moment in the Great Recession, in which thousands of jobs were lost around the world and the global economy faced a period of contraction."

#5 The American people are not stupid. They can see what is going on, and they are now the most pessimistic about finding a job that they have been “since at least 2013”…"Americans now have the least confidence in finding a new job since at least 2013, a period also known as the depths of the “jobless recovery” following the Great Recession. According to the latest August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Federal Reserve, the perceived probability of securing a new job in case of job loss has dropped to 44.9%. That’s the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, the New York Fed reported, “but it was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education.”

#6 Total household debt just hit another brand new record high. Not even during the Great Recession were we facing a crisis of this magnitude…"Total household debt climbed to a record $18.6 trillion last quarter, and while most borrowers remain on track with payments, young Americans are feeling the pressure."

#7 I have been warning that Americans have been getting behind on their debts. Now the percentage of outstanding balances that are seriously delinquent has risen to the highest level in more than a decade…"During the third quarter, 3 percent of outstanding balances became seriously delinquent - 90 days or more past due - the largest quarterly increase since 2014, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Among those ages 18 to 29, the rate was about 5 percent - more than double a year earlier and the highest of any age group."

#8 The cost of living crisis never seems to end. Aluminum prices are now increasing at an exponential rate, and that isn’t going to help matters at all…"Aluminum prices in the U.S. climbed to new record highs on Monday as domestic inventories tightened sharply, driven by the Trump administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs designed to bolster and revitalize America’s industrial base. According to Bloomberg, the all-in U.S. aluminum price, combining the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark and the U.S. Midwest delivery premium, hit a record high of $4,816 per ton, nearly double the level from the December 2023 lows."

#9 Have you noticed that restaurant chains are closing vast numbers of locations all over the nation? Wendy’s is the latest major chain to announce mass closures…"Fast food chain Wendy’s is planning to close hundreds more stores just a year after shuttering 140 locations. Interim CEO Ken Cook told investors in a Friday, Nov. 7, quarterly earnings call that the company would be closing a “mid single-digit percentage” of locations. With around 6,000 locations still operating nationwide, this would amount to roughly 240 to 360 stores. One investor estimated the number at about 300 locations during the call. “When we look at the system today, we have some restaurants that do not elevate the brand and are a drag from a franchisee financial performance perspective,” said Cook. “The goal is to address and fix those restaurants.”

#10 Manufacturing numbers often tell us where the economy is heading next. So the fact that U.S. manufacturing has fallen for eight months in a row is certainly not a good sign…"US manufacturing turned down in October on the PMI index, dropping from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. Price pressure may have eased (58 from 61.9), but production (48.2 from 51), inventory (45.8 from 47.7), and deliveries (54.2 from 52.6) have all declined. Employment in the sector continued to decline (46 from 45.3), and 67% of panelist noted that companies are working on managing their current workforce rather than hiring."

#11 The tech industry has been one of the very few bright spots for the U.S. economy in 2025. But even our largest tech companies have been conducting absolutely brutal layoffs…"The scale of layoffs is unprecedented: by October, over 112,000 tech employees had been let go across 218 companies. Amazon alone confirmed 14,000 job cuts, citing the need to “reduce bureaucracy” and reallocate resources. The trend is driven by rapid advances in automation and artificial intelligence, which are fundamentally changing the nature of tech work.

“It feels like companies are prioritizing efficiency over human capital,” said a recently laid-off engineer, echoing the concerns of many affected workers. The ripple effects extend beyond individual careers, impacting families and communities as local economies absorb the shock of sudden unemployment."

We were warned that economic conditions would deteriorate, and that is precisely what has happened. But what we have been through so far is not even worth comparing to what is eventually coming. It was a nice ride while it lasted. In 2009, the federal government was 10 trillion dollars in debt, and now it is 38 trillion dollars in debt. Meanwhile, state and local government debt, corporate debt and consumer debt have all soared into uncharted territory. 

We have been on the greatest debt binge in human history, but what did we get for it? We could have made much different choices, but instead we chose to literally destroy our future. Now a time of reckoning is upon us, and it isn’t going to be fun."

John Wilder, "Knowing The Face Of Your Father"

"Knowing The Face Of Your Father, or, 
The Best Post I’ve Ever Written About Bronze Age Europe"
by John Wilder

"The rooster crowed. Tark opened one eye, peering through the heavy hide covering him. He could see light. Motion was already starting in the longhouse, and he could see the oak beams above him dimly in the firelight. He could smell the barley and mutton stew that would be his breakfast. Always in a hurry, he jumped up and dressed into his pleasantly cool tunic and pants and bolted down a bowl of the stew. It was warm. It was good.

Tark was eight. Tark hummed a song to the sky father, the one who had spoken the world into existence, according to the stories the men told around the fire. Tark’s first job was to feed the chickens so mother could get the eggs for tomorrow.

His father, Wulfric, was already up, as usual. Tark had seen that his father was up later and up earlier. Tark noticed that Wulfric always had a wary look in his eye, as if he was never relaxing, always assessing. When other men talked after too much drink, Wulfric listened. Wulfric was tending the tribe’s cattle, their major stock of wealth and the way that they would be sure that they would make it through the winter, even if it was a long one.

Tark’s older brother Branoc, now 16, was already up and practicing with a battle axe – sweat already dripping from him despite the cool air. Branoc was a man, and to be a man, one fought. And to be a man, one married. Branoc would soon be bonded to Lunara. A man protects his woman, a man protects his family. All is right with the world.

Tark and Branoc go through the forest, intermittent sunlight flashing in Tark’s light blonde hair. His blue-gray eyes lit up as they caught deer sign. Maybe a hunt soon. That would be good.

Later, after a day of work and mock combat with wooden weapons and a laughing Branoc, Tark and the family gathered by the fire. Wulfric speaks slowly, telling the stories of their Yamnaya ancestors who rode the steppe and died valiantly. Those tales are the last thing that Tark heard as he drifted off to sleep – dreaming of becoming worthy enough to have a final burial place, a kurgan, worthy of a man of honor. The last thing he saw in the flickering firelight was the face of his father.

Okay, enough of Tark’s life. Tark was a member of the Corded Ware people, a successor to the Yamnaya. This culture (and its associated genetics) first show up on the steppe in what is today Russia and the Ukraine thousands of years ago and then spread throughout Europe during the thousands of years that followed.

This land was harsh, and not only in climate – some writers have referred to it as the bloodlands. Steppe warriors. These were the first humans to effectively use the horse as transport, and were fierce warriors. Most of the skeletons that we’ve found of these people have evidence of combat injuries. This isn’t uncommon.

In roughly 1250 BC, a band of warriors descended on a settlement in the Tollense Valley. The Tollense Valley is in present day Germany. On the day of the battle, current estimates are that perhaps 2,000 warriors fought during the battle – an immense battle for that time in Europe. Who won? Civilization won.

Steppe warriors have been a sort-of periodic vaccination against societal complacency. Urban areas exist, and the steppe warriors, be they Mongol, Hun, Turk, Scythian, or Yamnaya, have been a cleansing fire that keeps those urban and settled areas vital. I mean, would you build a giant great wall to protect you from cosplay LARPers or furries? No, not from LARPers. But I would build a fiery moat to keep furries out.

This crashing wave of martial prowess was built on a selection process that favored honor, planning, and daring. Genghis Khan is related to something like one out of eight east Asians, so I think his strategy paid off. It also forced societies out of their complacence, and kept them invigorated. Stagnant empires in decline were exactly the sort of thing these steppe barbarians were looking for. I mean, don’t threaten them with a good time.

Wave after wave of first Yamnaya and then Corded Ware people replaced almost all of the neolithic farmers in the region from the Volga to the Rhine on the east and west, and from the Arctic in the north to the Alps in the south, a huge range.

But they also pushed into places like Gaul, the Iberian Peninsula, and into Italy. In the Iberian Peninsula, for instance, many villages consist only of the offspring from the Y chromosome of the Yamnaya/Corded Ware people. They invaded, killed all the men and male children, and took over. The men from those places are erased from genetic history.

To a lesser extent, this happened in both Greece and Italy. The early emperors were blonde or sandy brown in hair color, with eyes that were light grey or blue – the Steppe Chads like Tark had found a home, and their genes lived on in emperors. And in people like Alexander the Great, who had heterochromia. What’s heterochromia? One blue eye, one brown. Steppe Chad’s blood flowed in Alexander’s veins, and probably made up 30% of the genome of some populations of the ancient Greeks and Macedonians.

In Italy, it was also pronounced, with early Latin DNA being 30% or more of Corded Ware origin. Nero was blonde and had blue eyes. I guess that makes the Yamnaya steppe daddies?

The Italians and Greeks of today are, of course still related to the Italians and Greeks of 2,000 years ago, but there has been a huge admixture of the peoples of the Mediterranean because these were the capital cities of empire. Think New York of 2025 is genetically even remotely close to New York of 1825? Nope, not at all. And neither was Rome of 200 AD genetically similar to Rome of 100 BC, except, perhaps, in the royal families.

The genetics of three to five thousand years of brutal struggle in the bloodlands were flowing in the veins of Octavian, even until the years just before his death...

A rooster, somewhere, crowed. Augustus (who had been Octavian) opened one eye. A servant was already there. One of the joys of youth was solitude, one of the banes of being Caesar was never being really alone. After Julius was murdered, Octavian never let a single man guard him. That would be folly. Besides, Augustus was 74, and when he woke, everything hurt. He remembered bounding up as a boy, but now everything was slow.

Even his waking was an event that set in motion a cascade of events. Three men entered the room. His bath was ready, and, as usual, already at perfect temperature. One had deeply absorbent towels. One had a chalice of wine. The third had brought in a fresh toga, trimmed in the Tyrian murex that was the amazingly expensive purple coloring of the Caesar.

The gardens of his palace by the Tiber were a place of quiet contemplation. He walked them slowly, in silence, his formerly blonde and now grey hair catching the morning Sun, reflecting off of his blue-gray eyes. A soft echo of the sounds of his guard, training, bring Actium back to his mind, where he finally ended Mark Antony’s planned usurpation of his power. Such glory. The entire world in the balance! In the afternoon, Senators. Roads. Gaul. Plans of Empire, details for lesser men.

That night, Augustus sits by the fire. Alone. In an unguarded moment, he allows himself to think about what he already knows awaits him: a marble tomb. He pondered: was he a man of honor? He thought, briefly, of a memory from when he was a child of perhaps four, of the face of his father in dim light, illuminated by the flickering light of a lamp. The blood of Tark had made a very long journey, indeed."

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

A Blues Musical Interlude: John Campbelljohn, "Knocked Down"

John Campbelljohn, "Knocked Down"

And we all get knocked down...

"A Look to the Heavens"

"NGC 1333 is seen in visible light as a reflection nebula, dominated by bluish hues characteristic of starlight reflected by interstellar dust. A mere 1,000 light-years distant toward the heroic constellation Perseus, it lies at the edge of a large, star-forming molecular cloud. 
This telescopic close-up spans about two full moons on the sky or just over 15 light-years at the estimated distance of NGC 1333. It shows details of the dusty region along with telltale hints of contrasty red emission from Herbig-Haro objects, jets and shocked glowing gas emanating from recently formed stars. In fact, NGC 1333 contains hundreds of stars less than a million years old, most still hidden from optical telescopes by the pervasive stardust. The chaotic environment may be similar to one in which our own Sun formed over 4.5 billion years ago."

"Candidate Trump, Who Vowed Peace On Earth, Changed The Defense Dept. To 'War" Dept."

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente,11/11/25
"Candidate Trump, Who Vowed Peace On Earth,
 Changed The Defense Dept. To 'War" Dept."
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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“The History of the Middle Finger”

“The History of the Middle Finger”
by pappy

“Well, now… here’s something I never knew before, and now that I know it, I feel compelled to send it on to my more intelligent friends in the hope that they, too, will feel edified.

Before the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, the French, anticipating victory over the English, proposed to cut off the middle finger of all captured English soldiers. Without the middle finger it would be impossible to draw the renowned English longbow and therefore they would be incapable of fighting in the future. This famous English longbow was made of the native English Yew tree, and the act of drawing the longbow was known as ‘plucking the yew’ (or ‘pluck yew’).

Much to the bewilderment of the French, the English won a major upset and they began mocking the French by waving their middle fingers at the defeated French, saying, “See, we can still pluck yew!” Since ‘pluck yew’ is rather difficult to say, the difficult consonant cluster at the beginning has gradually changed to a labiodentalfricative ‘F’, and thus the words often used in conjunction with the one-finger-salute! It is also because of the pheasant feathers on the arrows used with the longbow that the symbolic gesture is known as ‘giving the bird.’ And now you know..."