Chet Raymo, "On Saying 'I Don't Know'"

"On Saying 'I Don't Know'"

by Chet Raymo

“Johannes Kepler is best known for figuring out the laws of planetary motion. In 1610, he published a little book called “The Six-Cornered Snowflake” that asked an even more fundamental question: How do visible forms arise? He wrote: "There must be some definite reason why, whenever snow begins to fall, its initial formation is invariably in the shape of a six-pointed starlet. For if it happens by chance, why do they not fall just as well with five corners or with seven?"

All around him Kepler saw beautiful shapes in nature: six-pointed snowflakes, the elliptical orbits of the planets, the hexagonal honeycombs of bees, the twelve-sided shape of pomegranate seeds. Why? he asks. Why does the stuff of the universe arrange itself into five-petaled flowers, spiral galaxies, double-helix DNA, rhomboid crystals, the rainbow's arc? Why the five-fingered, five-toed, bilaterally symmetric beauty of the newborn child? Why?

Kepler struggles with the problem, and along the way he stumbles onto sphere-packing. Why do pomegranate seeds have twelve flat sides? Because in the growing pomegranate fruit the seeds are squeezed into the smallest possible space. Start with spherical seeds, pack them as efficiently as possible with each sphere touching twelve neighbors. Then squeeze. Voila! And so he goes, convincing us, for example, that the bee's honeycomb has six sides because that's the way to make honey cells with the least amount of wax. His book is a tour-de-force of playful mathematics.

In the end, Kepler admits defeat in understanding the snowflake's six points, but he thinks he knows what's behind all of the beautiful forms of nature: A universal spirit pervading and shaping everything that exists. He calls it nature's "formative capacity." We would be inclined to say that Kepler was just giving a fancy name to something he couldn't explain. To the modern mind, "formative capacity" sounds like empty words.

We can do somewhat better. For example, we explain the shape of snowflakes by the shape of water molecules, and we explain the shape of water molecules with the mathematical laws of quantum physics. Since Kepler's time, we have made impressive progress towards understanding the visible forms of snowflakes, crystals, rainbows, and newborn babes by probing ever deeper into the heart of matter. But we are probably no closer than Kepler to answering the ultimate questions: What is the reason for the curious connection between nature and mathematics? Why are the mathematical laws of nature one thing rather than another? Why does the universe exist at all? Like Kepler, we can give it a name, but the most forthright answer is simply: I don't know.”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

The Poet: Langston Hughes, "Life is Fine "

"Life is Fine"

"I went down to the river,

I set down on the bank.

I tried to think but couldn't,

So I jumped in and sank.

I came up once and hollered!

I came up twice and cried!

If that water hadn't a-been so cold

I might've sunk and died.

But it was Cold in that water! It was cold!

I took the elevator

Sixteen floors above the ground.

I thought about my baby,

And thought I would jump down.

I stood there and I hollered!

I stood there and I cried!

If it hadn't a-been so high

I might've jumped and died.

But it was High up there! It was high!

So since I'm still here livin',

I guess I will live on.

I could've died for love -

But for livin' I was born.

Though you may hear me holler,

And you may see me cry -

I'll be dogged, sweet baby,

If you gonna see me die.

Life is fine! Fine as wine! Life is fine!"

- Langston Hughes

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/23/21: "Economy Contracting Rapidly, Inflation Not Transitory, Stock Market Rips Higher"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/23/21:

"Economy Contracting Rapidly, Inflation Not Transitory, 

Stock Market Rips Higher"

- https://traderschoice.net/

The Daily "Near You?"

Machias, Maine, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The End of the World As We Have Known It"

"The End of the World As We Have Known It"

By Bill Bonner

"He who takes what isn’t his’n


Pays it back or goes to prison..."

– 19th century American businessman Daniel Drew

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "What we were looking for in the Evergrande story was a hint… a clue… an advance warning of things to come. What happens when you can’t pay your debts? How does it end? With a bang of inflation? Or a whimper of deflation? Our prediction: Both.

Every bubble blows up. Every excess has to be resolved. And every debt gets settled – one way or another. Typically, a bubble brings on a case of “irrational exuberance.” The irrationally exuberant investor pays too much for his assets. The irrationally exuberant businessman stretches too far… borrows too much… and over-extends himself. The irrationally exuberant empire invades Afghanistan. But no one and nothing is ever evergrande, of course. It is only occasionally grand. And when the occasion passes… so does the grandeur.

Too Much Excess: “And then what?” is our question today. We have the answer, too: the end of the world as we have known it.

An excess of private investment usually produces an excess of capacity… and excess output. Too much, in other words. Then, when the Bubble Epoch passes… the excess is usually reckoned with in a DEFLATION. Prices fall… until demand picks up enough to clear the market. The investors and producers, who misjudged the situation, and their suppliers and employees, suffer the losses. That’s what happened in America after the crash of 1929.

Private industry had expanded in the Roaring Twenties… By the 1930s, it produced far more autos and electrical appliances than the market could absorb. Prices – for stocks, as well as consumer items – collapsed. The price of milk, for example, fell so low that dairy farmers dumped it on the ground rather than sell it. Stock prices dropped for nearly three years, from 377 Dow points in October, 1929, to only 44 in July of 1932. Then, it took 25 more years, a Great Depression, and World War II for prices to recover.

Asian Bust: A similar thing happened more recently, when the Japan Inc. miracle economy blew up in 1989. The Japanese, too, had invested heavily to meet the demands of world consumers. Japan was the world’s big success story of the 1970s and 1980s. And by the end of the 1980s, it was on top of the world… with nowhere to go but down. Which is where it went…

Stocks fell 80%. 32 years later, they have still not recovered. Most likely, the coming bust in China will take the same path. It is an economy that grew by investing huge amounts in capital improvements – factories, infrastructure, malls, and housing. Now, it must mark its excess capacity to market… which will mean much lower prices for just about everything. Deflation, in other words. But not the end of the world.

What Goes Up… But the U.S. is different. It is not an economy on the way up – like America in 1929, Japan in 1989, or China today. It is an economy on the way down. And for the last 20 years, it has lived in a bubble world… like an aging action hero, who can no longer do his own stunts. Instead of investing money in new businesses, new technology, and new infrastructure, it squandered trillions of dollars on vanity projects, stock buybacks, executive compensation, and ghastly government boondoggles, including a 20-year, dead-end war in Afghanistan.

Yes, the business cycle naturally expands and contracts. It breathes in and breathes out. Sometimes inflating. Sometimes deflating. Naturally and normally, after a period of price inflation comes a period of price deflation. That is to say, the bubble seeks its pin… and always finds it. But what is especially inflated in the U.S.?

Asset prices. Those are the things the Federal Reserve has been inflating. And those are the things – stocks and bonds – you can expect to deflate in the coming crisis. (Housing is a special situation. Houses are not over-abundant, but artificially low interest rates have made them very expensive.)

…Must Come Down: But taking asset prices down a peg is not the end of the world either. What is the end of the world is when the feds block the markets from correcting… when they insist that assets can’t go down… and when they rig the whole economy to protect their own wealth and privileges. So, let’s walk through what is likely to happen.

First comes the obvious and inevitable market crash. For the fourth time this century, the stock market – extremely overpriced – tries to correct. Left alone, this would clear up the many grotesqueries now blemishing the markets and the economy. Stocks would get cut in half, at least. Many companies would go out of business. The rich wouldn’t be so rich. And then, the survivors would pick up the pieces and build a healthier economy on the ruins.

Fed’s Disastrous Rescue: But that is not going to happen. Because the feds will come to the rescue. They will give the economy another dose of that magic elixir – fake money. And that money will not only be used to prop up the stock market, but also to finance sweeping new squander projects of the government. And this time, the cat will be out of the bag; everyone will see consumer price inflation getting worse. And it will be obvious that the Fed cannot stop it. The bond market – the foundation of the whole capital structure – will heave and crack. And the end of the world as we have known it will come front and center. Stay tuned."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

Musical Interlude: Leonard Cohen, "Anthem"

Full screen recommended.

Leonard Cohen, "Anthem"

"Anthem" by Leonard Cohen "The birds they sang at the break of day. Start again, I heard them say. Don't dwell on what has passed away, or what is yet to be. Ah the wars they will be fought again. The holy dove She will be caught again, bought and sold, and bought again, the dove is never free. Ring the bells that still can ring, Forget your perfect offering. There is a crack in everything, That's how the light gets in. We asked for signs, the signs were sent: the birth betrayed, the marriage spent. Yeah the widowhood of every government - signs for all to see. I can't run no more with that lawless crowd, while the killers in high places say their prayers out loud. But they've summoned, they've summoned up a thundercloud, and they're going to hear from me. Ring the bells that still can ring... You can add up the parts but you won't have the sum. You can strike up the march, there is no drum. Every heart, every heart, to love will come, but like a refugee. Ring the bells that still can ring, Forget your perfect offering. There is a crack, a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in. Ring the bells that still can ring, Forget your perfect offering. There is a crack, a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in. That's how the light gets in. That's how the light gets in."

This Spadecaller Video ® features Leonard Cohen's music,

"Anthem", and the artwork of Matthew Schwartz.

"We Just Witnessed The Largest One Year Increase In Murder In The History Of The United States"

"We Just Witnessed The Largest One Year Increase 

In Murder In The History Of The United States"

by Michael Snyder

"Our violent, blood-soaked culture has produced a violent, blood-soaked reality in our streets. The final numbers for 2020 have finally been released by the FBI, and they are stunning. Prior to last year, the largest one year increase in the murder rate in the United States was 12.7 percent, and that came all the way back in 1968. Needless to say, many of you that are reading this article were not even alive in 1968. Well, we didn’t just break the old record last year. We more than doubled it. According to the FBI’s annual report on crime, the nationwide murder rate was up about 29 percent in 2020…

"The United States in 2020 experienced the biggest rise in murder since the start of national record-keeping in 1960, according to data gathered by the FBI for its annual report on crime. The Uniform Crime Report will stand as the official word on an unusually grim year, detailing a rise in murder of around 29%. The previous largest one-year change was a 12.7% increase in 1968."

Let that sink in for a minute. Never before in U.S. history has the murder rate shot up so rapidly. And guess what? The murder rate is even higher this year than it was last year. According to the New York Times, so far in 2021 the murder rate in our largest cities is almost 10 percent higher than it was during the same period in 2020… "The evidence from big cities suggests murder is still up in 2021 relative to 2020, although the increase is not nearly as big. My collection of data from 87 cities with publicly available year-to-date data shows murder up by 9.9 percent relative to comparable points in 2020."

That means that the violence in our inner cities has gotten even worse. So why is this happening? In an editorial for USA Today, a former deputy police commissioner linked the rise in violent crime to a lack of policing… "After the George Floyd protests started in New York City, the New York Police Department logged 45,000 fewer arrests from June to December - a 38% decline while the Big Apple added more than 100 additional homicides (a 58% increase).

From June through the end of this February, Chicago’s police made 31,000 fewer arrests - a 53% decline as murders rose 65%. In Louisville, where massive unrest included the shooting of two police officers during a protest, homicides jumped 87% as the police made 35% fewer vehicle stops since June while arrests plummeted 42% during summer months compared with 2019."

From Los Angeles and Houston to New Orleans and Minneapolis, the political response to the unrest lead to de-policing and the resulting record violence. This trend toward less aggressive policing was a direct result of the George Floyd tragedy and the ensuing protests. Nobody wants to become the next police officer that makes national news, and so police all over the nation have become much more cautious. As a result, violent criminals now have much more freedom to operate, and they are taking advantage of it.

Every day we see more examples of the rising tide of violence. For example, just hours ago a homeless man “with a rope tied around his neck” was found dead in Central Park… "A homeless man was found dead with a rope tied around his neck in Central Park Wednesday morning - and cops are now eyeing homicide, according to police and sources. A woman who was gardening made the disturbing discovery around 8:15 a.m. in the meadow at East 65th Street and East Drive, cops said. The 26-year-old man, who is known to police for frequenting the park, was found lying unconscious with a rope tied around his neck."

In America today, so many people that are pushed into homelessness end up dead. We desperately need to do something about our growing homelessness crisis, because more people are ending up on the streets with each passing month. I greatly applaud all of the private citizens that are taking the initiative to do what they can to help the homeless, but the streets are not safe for them either. In fact, a man named Robert Herron was just killed in Oakland while he was right in the middle of feeding the homeless… “I heard boom, boom, boom. Three to four shots. I turned to look and he’s in the gutter,” said Chavez.

One man who identified himself as ‘Slim’ Hoover said he was among those receiving a meal from the couple. He said Herron suffered several gunshot wounds: “I was basically trying to keep him stable and alive until the paramedics and the police got there.”

You have got to be pretty evil to kill someone while they are giving food to the homeless. But you won’t find our society’s worst killers out in the streets. Instead, you will find them walking the halls of power. When we think of “murderers”, we tend to envision young men with guns running around our decaying urban centers in the middle of the night. But the biggest murderers sit behind big desks in cushy offices.

We like to think that the United States is a light to the rest of the world, but over the years the decisions that our leaders have made have resulted in death, destruction, pain and suffering on a scale that is difficult to put into words. So I don’t want anyone preaching to me about how “good” the United States is. Because the truth is that we are not “good” at all. And if the whole truth about our misdeeds ever gets revealed for the whole planet to see, the rest of the world is going to turn on us with great fury.

So yes, the crime in our streets is really bad, but what our most powerful men and women do behind closed doors is far worse, and eventually our entire nation will be held accountable for what they have done. If you don’t think that those running things are truly that bad, then you definitely have not been paying attention. Sadly, much of the population actually enthusiastically supports what our top national leaders have been doing, and that makes them culpable too."

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "The Big Secret You Are Not Supposed To Know: The US Economy Is Collapsing Faster"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/23/21:

"The Big Secret You Are Not Supposed To Know:

The US Economy Is Collapsing Faster"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"How It Really Is"

Aware and fully informed of current crises by their never-lying 

Government and media, alarmed Americans react accordingly...

"We're so freakin' doomed!"

- The Mogambo Guru

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 9/23/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 9/23/21"

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will

do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."

- John Maynard Keynes

○

"The more I see of the monied classes,

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

CNN Market Data:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

○

A comprehensive, essential daily read.

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

September 22nd to 24th, Updated Daily

○

Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."

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- https://www.freightwaves.com/

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Daily Job Cuts

- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

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- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

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- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

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- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

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- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

○

And now, the End Game...

○

Oh yeah...

"Before They Were An Inconvenience, But Now The Shortages Are Really Beginning To Sting"

"Before They Were An Inconvenience, 

But Now The Shortages Are Really Beginning To Sting"

by Michael Snyder

"Have you noticed that store shelves are starting to get emptier and emptier? During the panic shopping that was sparked by the start of the COVID pandemic in 2020, there were very intense shortages of certain items, but those shortages did not last very long at all. But now there are widespread shortages in just about every sector of our economy, and they are starting to become quite painful. Unfortunately, we are being told to expect the shortages to intensify as we head into the holiday season. That is extremely alarming, because in many areas the shortages are already quite severe.

I had been away from the news for a couple of days, and when I came back there were lots more stories about our ongoing shortages. For example, the following comes from an excellent piece by Matt Stoller…"There are shortages in everything from ocean shipping containers to chlorine tablets to railroad capacity to black pipe (the piping that houses wires inside buildings) to spicy chicken breasts to specialized plastic bags necessary for making vaccines. Moreover, prices for all sorts of items, from housing to food, are changing in weird ways. Beef, for instance, is at near record highs for consumers, but cattle ranchers are getting paid much less than they used to for their cows."

In my entire life, I have never seen anything like this. Even the Federal Reserve is admitting that we have a major problem at this point. In fact, in the latest Beige Book the Fed referred to the shortages a whopping 80 times.

In certain parts of the country, these shortages are really beginning to sting. A reader just emailed me about what is going on in his section of Connecticut, and he said that I could share this with all of you…"I am just a regular guy in Connecticut, who has been watching things very closely, especially from a Biblical perspective. I wanted to quickly share with you an experience my wife and I had about two weeks ago at a medium-size, family run grocery store near Waterbury, CT.

Seemingly overnight, we noticed there were little yellow signs on the shelves, where certain SKUs used to be. Not entire lines, but individual SKUs. For example, a flavor of oatmeal, certain cereals, etc. The signs said something to the effect of: “This item is no longer available due to supply chain constraints”. I would say there were a few hundred signs in total throughout the store. It wasn’t until we got to the juice/water aisle that we noticed the larger problem: there was no Gatorade (?) and no bottled water (gallon jugs).

I have befriended the manager over the years, so I asked him where the water is, and he told me “…they only will give us so many bottles”. I asked who ‘they’ is, and he said the manufacturer: they were being rationed. As he said this, a truck driver happened to walk by and joined in on the conversation. He told us that he just got back from Maine, after a three-day trip- a trip that normally takes him a few hours. He said he, and all of the other truck drivers, sit at the warehouses for days, waiting for their trucks to be filled. To be clear, I asked him how long it normally takes, and he said a few hours at the most.

On our way out, I remembered that we needed dog food, so we went to the pet aisle, and there was no cat litter, and no dog food, save a few little bags of the cheapest stuff. All of the things Steve Quayle has been saying about food and water shortages suddenly became reality. I always believed him, but now I was seeing it, at the very local level. We then decided to go to PetSmart to get the dog food. Empty. The entire dog food shelf was empty except for a few bags!"

Are similar things happening in your part of the country? If so, please feel free to email me and let me know. We need to share intel with one another, because the mainstream media is not telling us the truth.

Of course the shortages would not be as severe if we could actually unload all of the container ships that are backlogged at our ports. Right now, dozens of container ships are sitting along the west coast waiting to be unloaded…"The number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has blown through all previous records.

The latest peak: There were an all-time-high 73 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Sunday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (the tally inched back to 69 on Tuesday). Of the ships offshore Sunday, 36 were forced to drift because anchorages were full."

Theoretically, the numbers - already surreally high - could go even higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not. This is the same problem that I talked about the other day.

At one time we had more able-bodied workers than we knew what to do with, but now there is an extreme shortage of workers all over the globe. Sadly, it has gotten to a point where we don’t even have enough people to drive our kids to school…"School districts around the country are struggling to fill thousands of bus driver positions as worker shortages lead to late arrivals and last-minute scrambles to bring retired workers back onto payrolls.

The shortages are so bad in some places that districts are taking extraordinary steps to get kids to school as students return to in-person classes this fall. Philadelphia’s school district will pay families $300 a month, or $3,000 for the year, to opt out of transportation services and get their kids to school on their own. Albemarle County Public Schools in Virginia is offering a $2,500 bonus to new drivers - $100 more than the school district in the county seat, Charlottesville, is offering."

This is the worst labor shortage that the U.S. has ever faced, and it just keeps getting worse. So where did all the people go? Without enough able-bodied workers, our economy is experiencing a whole host of difficulties right now. And when you consider everything else that has been going on, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Joe Biden’s approval rating just sunk to a new record low…"Eight months after President Joe Biden’s inauguration, his job approval rating has fallen six percentage points to 43%, the lowest of his presidency. For the first time, a majority, 53%, now disapproves of Biden’s performance.

These findings are from a Sept. 1-17 Gallup poll that was conducted after the U.S. military evacuated more than 120,000 people from Afghanistan. The United States’ exit from the nation’s longest war was marred by the Taliban’s quick takeover of most of the country and a suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, which killed 13 U.S. service members. Over the same period, COVID-19 infection rates, nationally, were surging, leading to hospital overflows in some regions."

And there are some parts of the nation where his approval rating is absolutely disastrous. Just check out the latest numbers from Iowa…"Just 31% of Iowans approved of how Joe Biden is handling his duties as president while a whopping 62% disapprove. Biden’s disapproval number is below the lowest ever measured by ace pollster J. Ann Selzer for former presidents Donald Trump (35%) and Barack Obama (36%). “This is a bad poll for Joe Biden, and it’s playing out in everything that he touches right now,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register."

Less than a year ago, a lot of Americans were viewing Biden as some sort of a “savior” figure. That didn’t exactly work out, did it? Many of us have been warning that shortages and high levels of inflation were coming for a very long time, but of course most of the population is not interested in such warnings. They just want to be told that everything is going to be okay. But the truth is that everything is not going to be okay, and the pain that we have experienced so far is just the beginning."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

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Related:

"Record Shattered: 73 Container Ships Stuck Waiting Off California"

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Highly Recommended:

- https://www.freightwaves.com/

"In Retrospect..."

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” 

– "The Fourth Turning", Strauss & Howe

"The FED Cannot Stop Inflation Or The Coming Depression; Crisis Ignored As The Stock Market Roars Back"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 9/22/21:

"The FED Cannot Stop Inflation Or The Coming Depression; 

Crisis Ignored As The Stock Market Roars Back"

Musical Interlude: Medwyn Goodall, “Eyes of Heaven”

Full screen mode recommended.

Medwyn Goodall, “Eyes of Heaven”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“To some, the outline of the open cluster of stars M6 resembles a butterfly. M6, also known as NGC 6405, spans about 20 light-years and lies about 2,000 light years distant. M6 can best be seen in a dark sky with binoculars towards the constellation of Scorpius, coving about as much of the sky as the full moon. 

 

Like other open clusters, M6 is composed predominantly of young blue stars, although the brightest star is nearly orange. M6 is estimated to be about 100 million years old. Determining the distance to clusters like M6 helps astronomers calibrate the distance scale of the universe.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap110906.html

Edward Abbey, "Benedicto"

"Benedicto"

“May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. May your rivers flow without end, meandering through pastoral valleys tinkling with bells, past temples and castles and poets' towers into a dark primeval forest where tigers belch and monkeys howl, through miasmal and mysterious swamps and down into a desert of red rock, blue mesas, domes and pinnacles and grottos of endless stone, and down again into a deep vast ancient unknown chasm where bars of sunlight blaze on profiled cliffs, where deer walk across the white sand beaches, where storms come and go as lightning clangs upon the high crags, where something strange and more beautiful and more full of wonder than your deepest dreams waits for you - beyond that next turning of the canyon walls.”

- Edward Abbey

"Shipping Crisis Gets Crazy – 65 Container Ships Get Stuck At California Ports And Shortages Soar"

Full screen recommended.

"Shipping Crisis Gets Crazy – 65 Container 

Ships Get Stuck At California Ports And Shortages Soar"

by Epic Economist

"Supply chains are still in total chaos all across the U.S., and now American consumers are being warned about coming shortages ahead of the busy holiday season. Several business owners, big retailers, and even the Vice-President of the United States have been alerting that store shelves may soon be empty as the global shipping crisis aggravates. They have been asking people to prepare for further supply chain disruptions and start placing their Christmas orders as soon as possible if they want to get them in time.

In short, we're about to witness another turbulent shopping season as the supply chain crisis rapidly spirals out of control. A wide range of factors, including a shortage of shipping containers, record-high consumer demand, port congestion, and soaring freight costs have all conspired against global supply chains and businesses that have been waiting for their orders to arrive for months. There's a record-breaking number of cargo ships currently stuck at California ports. About a month ago, 44 ships were stuck outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and up until that point, that had been the highest number of ships waiting to unload on California docks. But things have escalated VERY quickly. And now 65 ships are queueing outside the two biggest ports in America, a signal of how severe port congestion has become across the U.S. ports.

Now that consumers are aware of the imminent shortages and retailers and manufacturers have been rushing to place orders to restock their inventories before the holiday season, the global shipping system is struggling to keep up. The LA and Long Beach ports are the main seaborne gateway to the country, especially for imports coming from China. Over the weekend, a record 73 ships were waiting for a berth - nearly twice as many as at the same time in August. Many cargo ships have been diverted to other ports because of the unprecedented backlog. However, the situation has only gotten worse since most nearby ports don't have enough capacity to deal with the volume of trade, which is preventing thousands of containers from being unloaded.

According to a recent Sea-Intelligence research, several industries across the country are actually dangerously low on inventory. And one of the main determinants exacerbating supply chain woes is the very real shortage of truck drivers, who collect goods from those warehouses to deliver to the stores and the consumers. In essence, shipping companies are aware ports cannot handle the immense cargo volume sent every day. But they have been inciting shippers to order far more than they need to restock their inventories. That, in turn, elevates the demand for cargo shipping, and of course, pushes the profit margins of those shipping companies to sky-highs as shipping costs go through the roof.

However, skyrocketing shipping and freight prices are preventing small-and-medium-sized businesses to actually restock their shelves and offer their products. As the holiday season approaches, the US Toy Association, which represents 950 toy firms with a US presence, has warned about looming shortages, given that their products have been sent to the end of the shipping priority list. While large companies have decades-long relationships with shipping companies, smaller businesses cannot afford to pay a premium for in-time deliveries. If you ever tried to cook a complex dish and realized in the middle of the process that an essential ingredient was missing then you can understand what manufacturers are wrestling with for the past year and a half. Many are being forced to shut down operations as they wait for key parts to arrive.

Sadly, this crisis is far from over. Industry specialists are warning that prices of several supplies will rise exponentially because of port logjams, and the situation is getting so dire that it is expected to last until 2023.According to Jackson Meyer, the chief executive of freight forwarding firm Verus Global, as retailers run to stock up on best-selling items, supply snags, transportation chaos, and inflated prices are about to take this crisis to a whole new level.

To make things even worse, the U.S. overall retail supply level has remained at record lows for four months in a row. And now that stores shelves are being wiped out at record speed, those who are planning to buy certain Christmas presents have probably already missed their chance to get them under the tree. According to Mr. Meyer, "it's probably too late by now, particularly for items such as furniture, beds, TVs, or anything that has to be imported." At this point, we can only hope that a repeat of last year's panic-buying frenzy doesn't occur during the holiday season. But it is safe to say that much more chaos will arise as shortages intensify."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com​

"Our Economy is a House of Cards That is About to Collapse"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, PM 9/22/21:

"Our Economy is a House of Cards That is About to Collapse"

"You can only kick the can down the road for so long. Our Economy is a precarious House of Cards. It is about to be flattened and we are going to be left to pay for everything. Today I'm at Rock Pile Beach in Laguna Beach, CA."

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/22/21: "Fed. Taper? HOW ABOUT NO... It's Just A "Coincidence" That Fed. Officials Are Insider Trading"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/22/21:

"Fed. Taper? HOW ABOUT NO... It's Just A 

"Coincidence" That Fed. Officials Are Insider Trading"

- https://traderschoice.net/

The Daily "Near You?"

Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"America’s Evergrande Economy"

"America’s Evergrande Economy"

By Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "Evergrande it ain’t. What we are wondering today is what’s ahead for the U.S. economy – inflation or deflation? Maybe the Evergrande story will give us a clue. To fully understand the Evergrande story, you almost have to understand the whole story…of how, in 1971, the U.S. switched to a “flexible” dollar that it could print at will…and how the switch created a boom in China… and a bust in U.S. manufacturing (it’s easier to “print” money than to make refrigerators). In an honest economy, pre-1971, the U.S. had to repatriate its dollars by offering equivalent quantities of goods and services to the Chinese…or risk having to settle up in gold.

Concrete River: But with the new system… it could just print up more dollars… which the Chinese, bless their hearts, used to buy U.S. bonds…All this money created a boom in China… which quickly got out its cement trucks. The concrete flowed like the Yangtze. We saw the construction boom on our trip to China in 2014 – a breathtaking display of human industry and material progress. The highways were new. The buildings were new. The trains… docks… factories – all new. You could scarcely find a house more than 18 months old.

Never in the history of the world had so many people gone from being so poor to so rich in so short a time. Per capita income rose from $318 in 1990 to $10,500 in 2020. And never in history had so much money been borrowed to make it happen. From $1.7 trillion of total debt in 2000, China now owes nearly $50 trillion. Its debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 335%.

More Evergrandes: China’s economy grew by leaps and bounds. People were working harder than ever… and earning more and more money. Surely, they would want to buy places to rest their weary heads?

Property developer Evergrande saw the demand coming, and borrowed heavily to meet it. In this regard, it was particularly resourceful. Bloomberg’s Matt Levine reports: "Evergrande owes money to Chinese banks. It owes money to foreign hedge funds, and foreign investors own its stock. It owes money to suppliers, and to Chinese retail investors in those wealth management products. And it owes apartments to buyers. And the retail investors who bought Evergrande wealth management products were often also Evergrande homeowners, because the products were sold at Evergrande buildings".

Yes, the company advertised its own debt to its employees and customers, as suitable for “conservative investors seeking steady returns” – promising 11% per year. And now, it owes some $300 billion… with no way to pay it. The Financial Times reports on the fallout: "China’s property slowdown sends chill through the economy." And so we wonder: What other Evergrandes are waiting to be discovered? What other excesses are waiting to be reckoned with?

Senseless Debt: The whole debt-drenched U.S. economy, perhaps? U.S. government debt has gone from under $1 trillion in 1980 to over $28 trillion today, a 28 times increase. That would have been fine if the economy had kept up. But it didn’t. U.S. GDP in 1980 was $2.8 trillion. Now, it is almost $23 trillion, an eight times increase.

As Evergrande has discovered, debt only makes sense when the rate of return on the investment is greater than the cost of the debt. That’s hard enough to do for a private company, with a keen sense of business… and owners with skin in the game. For the U.S. government, it’s been impossible. As we showed earlier this month, all of its major investments over the last 50 years have been losers.

Nowhere to Fall: But there’s a big difference between the debt bubble in the U.S. and the debt bubble in China. Evergrande built houses. And malls. And commercial buildings. And now that the supply for these things is greater than the demand, prices will fall.

What did America produce? What prices will fall in the U.S.? Factories? Nope. U.S. manufacturing has been in a decline the entire 40-year period. Housing? Nope again. In the 1950s, America built 21 million new houses. But in the decade from 2010 to 2019, fewer than 6 million were built. Autos? Nah, the U.S. produced around 9 million vehicles last year… almost no increase from the figure 10 years ago.

Meme Wealth: What has the U.S. produced in abundance? Speculative investments! Techs. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Stonks. NFTs . High-yield bonds with negative real yields. During that same 40-year period, in which real output rose eight times, the Dow rose 33 times. The Nasdaq line was so close to the zero line in 1980, you couldn’t squeeze a greased penny between them. Now, it is nearly 15,000.

In 1980, household wealth (stocks, bonds, real estate) measured about 350% of GDP. Today, the ratio is over 600%. And, of course, in the Evergrande scheme of things, the excess was financed by debt. Total U.S. debt (including households, government and business debt) stood at 1.65 times GDP in 1980. Now, it is 3.78 times as great. There, then, is the excess. And there is the bubble that is about to burst. Tomorrow, we will look at what happens next."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

○

Related:

"Evergrande = EverSCAMMED: 

Why the Debt Bomb Contagion Will Spread Globally"

"Madness..."

“When the world goes mad, one must accept madness as sanity; 

since sanity is, in the last analysis, nothing but the

 madness on which the whole world happens to agree.”

- George Bernard Shaw

Greg Hunter, "Without Trust Markets Will Tank – John Rubino"

"Without Trust Markets Will Tank – John Rubino"

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"It looks like we are on track for yet another global financial meltdown. This time it is coming out of China in the form of a failed property development company called Evergrande. It’s five times bigger than Lehman Brothers, whose failure cratered the global economy in 2008. Will central banks, including the Fed, just let it all fail or will they print massive amounts of money trying to stop the fall? If history is a guide, we should get ready for the most money creation ever. In May, financial writer John Rubino said, “This is beyond the ability of any individual to fix. We can’t save the system.” We sure can print a lot of money to try though.

Massive global money printing is what is coming, and it will come with huge consequences for all fiat currencies. Rubino explains, “Stocks are tanking, cryptos are tanking, currencies of the world are getting volatile, politics are volatile and gold is going up while all this is happening, which it is supposed to do. Gold is supposed to be the safe haven where you hide out when nothing else seems trustworthy. That hasn’t been the case in prior bear markets. When stocks tanked, they pulled down gold and silver. It’s a good sign when markets start to behave rationally again. When high risk assets don’t seem worth it anymore, capital flows into real assets that hold their value no matter what the government is doing to the currency. That’s the way it’s supposed to work, and that is the way it is working. 

Trust is probably the key word in this whole discussion. Fiat only exists because we trust the people who are managing them to maintain their value. You take the trust away and there is nothing there. A fiat currency is not a real thing. It doesn’t actually exist other than little pieces of paper that have no intrinsic value or computer code, which also has no intrinsic value. So, you take away the trust that we had in the Fed, Treasury, Congress and the President to do the right thing, and be honest, when it comes to the financial markets, you take that away and there really isn’t anything there. Nobody would want to hold a currency managed by people they can’t trust. Pay attention to that because the less we trust the guys in charge, the less we trust the currency. The less we trust the currency, the less we trust the financial markets and the less valuable these financial assets are. So, it all ties together, and it all depends on that one word—Trust.”

What’s Rubino’s biggest fear? Rubino warns, “My biggest fear is that we screw up our finances, we screw up geopolitics, and we get into a big war because we are close to that now. The U.S., Russia and China are bumping up against each other, and we are like scorpions in a bottle on this little planet with all these high tech weapons. My biggest fear is we take it well beyond the world of finance to no holds barred military action. There’s no way to predict anything when you start doing something like that. The worst case scenario is too horrible to even think about.”

- https://usawatchdog.com/

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with John Rubio, 

founder of the popular website DollarCollapse.com.

- https://rumble.com/