Monday, August 2, 2021

"A Disaster"

"A Disaster"
by Jim Rickards

"Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department reported second-quarter GDP for the U.S. rose at a 6.5% annualized rate. From 2009 to 2019 (the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis), the average annual growth in GDP for the U.S. was 2.2%. So, in comparison with the previous recovery, 6.5% seems like exceptionally strong growth.

Of course, champagne corks were flying at The New York Times and other mainstream media outlets because Q2 output has regained 2019 levels. But the recession was over in April 2020. It's now August 2021, and they’re celebrating that we’re back to 2019 levels? That's a pathetic rebound and really nothing to celebrate. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers…

Less Than Meets the Eye: First, most analysts and media projected the Q2 number to be 7.5% or 8.0%, so it fell below expectations. Second, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP fell from 13% in April, to 10% in May, and then 7.5% in June. With allowance for noise, this means that growth weakened considerably over the course of the quarter. It also means if growth was stronger in April and May, and if growth for the quarter overall was 6.5%, then June must have been well below 6.5%. It’s simple math.

That means Q3 is off to a weak start. With the Delta variant of the virus out there, the situation is even worse. Finally, there was some highly troubling data in the fine print that comes along with the headline number.

Imports were healthy because Americans have been on a bit of a buying binge, using government handout checks. But exports were awful, a reflection of the fact that the rest of the world is not doing nearly as well as the U.S. Simply put, foreigners are not buying our goods because they’re in bad shape themselves.

Most dramatically, personal income fell 30% on an annualized basis. This is a measure of private income that does not include government handouts. Most of this 30% drop was based on revisions to prior data, which had been updated by the Commerce Department using more reliable surveys. Statistical adjustments aside, the bottom line is that private income (both wages and proprietor allocations) has been flat for eight months going back to October 2020.

Not a Recovery, But a Disaster: That’s not a recovery; that’s a disaster. It makes the forecast more dire because one-by-one the government subsidies are running out. The U.S. economy fell about 35% (annualized) in the first half of 2020 and then staged a strong comeback, rising 33.4% in the third quarter of 2020 with a more modest 4.3% gain in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2020, the economy fell by the greatest amount since 1946, but the second-half recovery kept that from being far worse.

Why wasn’t the 2020 economy much worse? The answer is that a huge number of financial rescue programs were put in place, backed up by tens of trillions of dollars of either money printing or deficit spending. The Fed expanded its balance sheet by over $4 trillion in the immediate aftermath of the collapse. Congress approved trillions of dollars of checks sent directly to the American people. Unemployment benefits were extended and increased. Student loan repayments were deferred. Payroll Protection Plan loans were made to small businesses (and most were later forgiven).

The Gravy Train Has Stopped: But expanded unemployment benefits are mostly done. The Payroll Protection Plan loans are over. No additional checks are going to be mass-mailed, as happened last February and December. With government handouts mostly over, private income stagnant and exports falling, it’s not clear what will drive GDP growth at all in the second half of 2021. To top it all off, the rent eviction moratorium is over.

One of the most effective and least reported programs was the moratorium on evictions of renters. This was a federal program, although there were many local equivalents. Once renters knew they could not be evicted, they stopped paying rent. The program was so widespread that 14.7% of all renters in America now owe back rent. That moratorium expired as of last Saturday. What happens next?

It would be one thing if the renters had put the monthly rent money in escrow so that it would be available when the moratorium expired. That’s unlikely to have happened for more than a few of the six million families covered by the program. A three or four-month moratorium on eviction starting in April 2020 might have made some sense. But running the program for 15 months with no plan for a smooth exit has led to another crack-up for an economy still not up to speed.

Landlords Have Bills to Pay Too: People naturally sympathize with the renters who were affected by COVID. However, little consideration is given to landlords. Many landlords have mortgages and had to pay principal and interest to banks, plus maintenance and property taxes while their tenants were paying no rent. Now those landlords want to collect the back rent in order to get caught up on their own obligations. Many tenants just don’t have the money. What comes next is a wave of evictions.

This will put an enormous number of Americans out on the street looking for new places to live without much money in their pockets. It could also lead to a depressed housing market in certain cities as a surge of rental properties comes on the market while people are fleeing the cities to move to suburbs or more attractive states like Florida.

This will be one more headwind for the economy, as both tenants struggle with housing costs and landlords struggle with a surplus of property for rent. It’s one more example of the unintended consequences of government intervention.

Of course, the stock market is still in bubble-land and in denial about all of this technical data. That won’t last. The stock market may continue to float for another month or two, but by October, a severe correction may be in the cards as new data make it impossible to ignore reality."

"Defining Liberty"

"Defining Liberty"
by Jeff Thomas

"Here we have a most interesting collection of signage. Some low-level civil servant who’s in charge of deciding what the motorist may do at this particular junction has become quite thorough in creating restrictions. The motorist may not proceed, may not turn left or right, and, most interestingly, in the second sign from the bottom, may not reverse out. In essence, "You’re stuck here and whatever you do to get out, you’re in violation of the rules we’ve placed upon you."

Of course, if we were to encounter this particular intersection, we might say, "That’s absurd – they can’t possibly hold me to this." But, interestingly, under the traffic laws, a policeman can cite us for violating the signage. If we’re lucky, he might agree that it’s absurd and give us a break, but his job is to enforce it, regardless of its absurdity. And if he enjoys his position of authority, as many in his position do, he just may choose to demonstrate his power. And, if we defy him, we’re in real trouble.

How many laws exist in the US today? The answer is that no one knows. It’s too complex to define. There are roughly 20,000 laws regarding gun control alone – and that’s just the federal laws. State, county and city laws also exist in abundance. The level of governmental dominance now exists to such a degree that literally everyone is a criminal, whether they know it or not. It’s been estimated that the average American commits about three felonies per day, in addition to many lesser crimes. If, for any reason, the authorities wished to victimize you, they’d find their task quite simple.

Yet, there’s a general assumption amongst those who simply accept the laws that are heaped upon their shoulders, that they were somehow "necessary," that legislators only pass laws if they have no other choice. In my estimation, this view is diametrically opposite to what is true. One of my own principles regarding governance is, "It is the primary business of any government to grow its own power and wealth at the expense of its people."

This is an important principle to understand, as it opens the mind to recognize that governments always move in a direction of increased control. Given enough time, governments will always create a state of despotism. And, historically, no government has ever reversed its level of control and introduced greater liberty. It then follows that each country is in the process of becoming increasingly tyrannical. The only difference between them is the degree of tyranny that’s been achieved so far.

Liberty and governmental control are polar opposites. Yet, most people have a rather vague perception of the term "liberty" and might even find it difficult to define. This is unfortunate, as it means that, when liberty is lost, those same people will be unlikely to recognize the fact. Here are two good working definitions of liberty, courtesy of the dictionary:

"The power or scope to act as one pleases."

"The state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one's way of life, behavior, or political views."

The first is interesting, as it suggests that liberty means each person doing exactly as he pleases. Doug Casey often offers a similarly simple, but more refined rule of life: "Do as thou wilt, but be prepared to accept the consequences."

The latter dictionary definition is probably in keeping with the perception of most Americans around 1800, but today’s American would caution that, "Ideally, that would be true, but without our current laws and regulations, there’d be chaos." Libertarians would disagree and offer only two principles that they believe would largely negate the need for laws: "Do all that you say that you’ll do and don’t initiate aggression against another person or his property."

And, again, non-libertarian thinkers would shake their heads and assert that this would result in chaos. Americans have become indoctrinated to believe this through slow measures. As Thomas Jefferson said, "Even under the best forms of Government, those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny." The key to governmental domination is that we tend to tolerate the loss of liberty if it’s taken away slowly. In the US, liberty has been in decline, by my reckoning, for about one hundred years, but has been in rapid decline since 2001.

Of course, in all countries, at some point, the governmental domination becomes so intolerable that the people rise up. Revolution follows – a period of great upheaval and hardship. Eventually, a recovery begins and the entire process starts over. It stands to reason that the best place to be is a country that has already recovered and is in the reconstruction stage – a time when liberty is at its greatest.

The US was in this stage in the nineteenth century – a period of great expansion and development. However, by the mid-twentieth century, the rot had set in. America was past its peak and was ready to begin the final, and most rapid, period of decline. At that time, the Russian Ayn Rand, living in the US, stated, "We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission; which is the stage of the darkest periods of human history, the stage of rule by brute force."

At the time Ms. Rand made this statement, she was largely dismissed. After all, Americans had never seen riot squads, dressed in black and heavily-armed, barging into homes without a warrant. Authorities did not yet have the legal right to confiscate all of the possessions of an individual, based upon suspicion alone. Yet, this is exactly what Ms. Rand warned against when she said, "the stage of total dominance is fast approaching."

In reflection, we can have a laugh at the signage above, as it was clearly created by a low-level civil servant who was careless with his own puffed-up authority to the point of creating an absurdity. But, in the larger picture, the signs are equally in place. Liberty in the US, at this point, is all but extinguished. And greater restrictions are being written every day. The reader is left with a choice. He can either accept the signs that tell him he’s not allowed to go left, right, forward or back and wait until his government instructs him as to what he’s allowed to do, or he may say, "That’s it - I’m reversing out of here and finding a location where liberty is still in abundance."

The Daily "Near You?"

Johnson City, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Prepare For The End Of The World As We Know It"

"Prepare For The End Of The World As We Know It"
By Josey Wales
"We’re on the last leg of a major world wide collapse. American cities will turn into death zones. Uninhabitable. Humanity is about to face a dire situation as the Great Reset rolls out all across the world. Listen as Alex Jones and Mike Adams walk you through the details that have evolved over the weekend."

Please view this video on Rumble, 
as Google Blogger will not permit embedding it:
Related:

Related, essential:

"We Are All..."

“I know something of shame… how can we not all feel it? We are all small-minded people, creeping about the earth grubbing for our own adventure and making the very mistakes for which we want to humiliate our neighbors… I think we wake up every day with high intentions and by dusk we have routinely fallen short. Sometimes I think God created the darkness just so he didn’t have to look at us all the time.”
- Helen Simonson, “Major Pettigrew”

"When Things Don’t Add Up"

"When Things Don’t Add Up"
by Jim Kunstler

"It was only a week ago that the American Medical Association (AMA) declared that the category formerly known as “sex” must be removed from US birth certificates - replaced, one supposes, by a tacit “to-be-determined” status in the great Progressive rush to extract the human race from the animal kingdom. Of course, that’s only one skirmish in the great Woke Jacobin war on the moiling masses who clutter up planet Earth, cramping the style of its transhuman-seeking ubermanagers, Bill Gates, Bezos, Daszak, Zuck, Jack, Elon, Klaus & Company, et al.

But this was the old redoubtable, white-coated AMA, you understand, not some claque of screeching, size-16, “body-positive,” gender-cryptic freshman hopping up and down outside the Yale faculty lounge at the sherry-sipping toffs within. Amateur diagnosticians out there might recognize it as another symptom of the hebephrenic toxicosis infecting America’s elites, especially those who work in realms supposedly based on facts, figures, and the general effort to make sense of life in our mysterious universe.

This national freak-show-of-the-mind might account for the many recent instances of science talking out of its booty-hole, led by its very personification, Dr. Anthony (“The Science”) Fauci, proud papa of SARS-CoV-2 (stage-name: Covid-19), with all its fabulous HIV and monkeypox gain-of-function bells and whistles. Dr. Fauci’s mighty, 20-year effort to bring forth this gift to mankind happens to coincide neatly with the collapse of advanced techno-industrial economies, a frightful condition that was already causing enough trouble in the world before Covid-19 marched in. Some suspect that Covid-19 is a contrived cover for all that, perhaps even an attempt to manage the journey down.

The Covid 19 panic, which has been driving formerly civilized societies crazy for eighteen months, prompted the bringing-forth of The Science’s follow-up project: vaccines to stop the spread of the virus. Enter the scene, these vaxes did, like, a day-and-a-half after Covid-19 pirouetted onstage. Hmmmm. Could someone have been working on those vaxes backstage before the dread virus even premiered? Were patents issued for them pre-dating January, 2020? Seems so. But never mind that for now. The vaxes were rolled out to fanfares over a year ago and those moiling masses of America, the superfluous holders of bachelor’s degrees in Oppression Studies - for whom, sadly, the world had run-out of paying positions - lined up like kids at Santa’s throne in Macy’s on Black Sunday for their Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson jabs. Whew…! That was a close call!

Or was it? Naw, not even close, actually. Since now it turns out that the jabs don’t seem to work that well. The official story got murkier last week when the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported internally to staff (it leaked) that “fully vaccinated people might spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people.” Whoopsie…. In a Delta variant outbreak on Cape Cod last month, three-quarters of the infected were fully vaxed-up patients. The story got darker because The New York Times, the usually-reliable mouthpiece for The Science and his allies in “Joe Biden’s” public health bureaucracy, let slip that, “The Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and may be spread by vaccinated people as easily as the unvaccinated.”

Wuh-oh…! A worm the size of an Amtrak Acela train has turned in the myocarditic heart of our nation’s capital. Things have changed overnight - didn’t they see it coming? - and now the government is freaking out as it appears to have some serious ‘splainin’ to do - and right on the heels, too, of an hysterical month-long campaign to persuade the remaining unvaxed millions to submit to the needle, climaxed by threatening the obdurate “hesitants” with taking away their employment and ability to participate in commerce and social life. All that sound-and-fury for what? For vaccines that don’t work… and which, quite possibly, could leave you seriously ill, even dead?

There’s one beguiling explanation I’ve heard - from Brandon Smith of Alt-Markets.us, and others - for that hysterical campaign of recent days to jab every last hold-out: the need to eliminate what’s called the “control group,” the bunch of people who, in any drug trial, are given no drug, or a fake shot (like saline), or a placebo (mindf**k agent) to see if the real thing actually works. The desperate effort couldn’t have been more idiotic, since there was no realistic hope of gulling the remaining unvaxed into getting a shot, and the effort only made the “Joe Biden” admin look even more dishonest and despotic.

This could be the beginning of the end for POTUS 46 and the Woke-Jacobin derangement he stole in on. The CDC numbers look so bad now, that Ol’ White “Joe” himself will have to step up to the mic and say something like: “We made a mistake with these vaccines. I hope you will forgive us.” Of course, he absolutely won’t rise to the occasion and say that, no way… and, anyway, the government (and POTUS 46) will not be forgiven because they’ve destroyed millions of livelihoods and tens of thousands of going businesses, and allowed a bunch of cities to get burned and trashed, and city-dwellers to be harassed and attacked by their Antifa/ BLM shock troops, and enabled roughly half the US population not-insane to be terrorized, mau-maued, and insulted by every Woke jape from the Drag Queen Reading Hour to Nancy Pelosi’s January 6 “insurrection” circus - with the janky 2020 election right in the middle.

Speaking of which election, evidence is likely to emerge soon that the numbers really don’t add up. And in a big way. The max-vax campaign may have been an attempted smoke screen for all that trouble coming down the line, but the max-vax move is obviously flopping now. And, by the way, do you suppose that the not-insane half of the nation has failed to notice that upward of half-a million people from other lands (all over the world!), many carrying Covid-19, have been jumping our border with Mexico… and that the US government has deliberately assisted them… and distributed them by bus, and even on airplanes, to distant points all over the USA… and now these government rogues have the nerve to put the squeeze on American citizens to vax up against a virus they are seeding around the country! Is it really too much to declare that this regime has got to go, and go as soon as possible?"

"How It Really Is"

"Economic Market Snapshot PM 8/2/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot PM 8/2/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/2/21:
"Critical Must Know Now Updates! 
Crypto, Stocks, Market, The Fed, More"
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
July 30th to August 2nd, Updated Daily
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts
Commentary, highly recommended:
And now, the End Game...
Oh yeah...

"The Economy is Falling Apart Like Never Before - The Endgame is Starting"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, AM 8/2/21:
"The Economy is Falling Apart Like Never Before - 
The Endgame is Starting"
"The Economy is falling apart right before our eyes. The moratorium for rent and mortgage forbearance has ended. There will be local jurisdictions that try to stop the inevitable. Eventually this will not work. It’s going to be an eviction tsunami. We are in Laguna Beach, CA."
And while you're literally fighting for your life...

Sunday, August 1, 2021

"When Society Collapses, Will The United States Be One Of The Best Places To Be Located?"

Full screen recommended.
"When Society Collapses, Will The United States 
Be One Of The Best Places To Be Located?"
by Epic Economist

"In the back of our minds, most of us already know that a societal collapse that will mark the end of the world as we know it is just a matter of time. And when that day comes, where would you want to be? We have to admit that given how rapidly things are spiraling out of control, playing worst-case scenarios in our heads is a form of imagining what we could do after we realize society has started to fall apart in an irreversible manner. Global events are getting crazier, scarier, and significantly more threatening with each passing day, and to make it even worse, the current crisis is a clear demonstration that our leaders are terribly unprepared to deal with the unexpected. According to several scientists and researchers, we're right on track to witness the total collapse of our modern civilization, and ever since the health crisis erupted all over the planet, we entered a highway that doesn’t lead us anywhere good, and it won't take too long before the world is forced to face a reckoning. When widespread chaos takes over, and everyone starts to panic, where are you going to be?

That's the question scientists have tried to answer in a recent study in which they tried to determine the best place to be at during a global societal collapse. According to the study, the best possible locations to be living in when the world goes totally haywire is New Zealand, followed by Iceland, the UK, Tasmania and Ireland. The researchers noted that human civilization was currently “in a perilous state due to the highly interconnected and energy-intensive society that had developed and the environmental damage this had caused". They highlighted that a collapse could be triggered by shocks, such as a ravaging financial crisis, the worsening of the climate crisis, a much more contagious virus outbreak, or a combination of all of these factors. The beginning of the meltdown would be marked by disrupted supply chains and the deterioration of international agreements that help trade among countries. Such turmoil would crash the global financial system in a heartbeat.

To come up with the final results, the researchers had to evaluate which nations would be most resilient to such a collapse, so they ranked countries according to their ability to grow food for their population, protect their borders from unwanted mass migration, and maintain an electrical grid and some manufacturing ability. When they were asked about America, the researchers said that our country's giant land borders would compromise our ability to prevent mass migration from people who would be trying to escape climate disasters in their own countries. Millions of people could cross the southern border from Mexico or the northern border from Canada, for instance. And those vulnerabilities pushed the United States out of the top 5. In fact, there are many other factors that need to be considered which should push the U.S. way down the list.

For instance, during the heated demonstrations we witnessed in 2020, we had a taste of the potential for generalized disorder we have in this country. Major cities were in total chaos as demonstrators destroyed and burned monuments, vehicles, and stores. Since that time, we have been experiencing a worrying spike in the number of offenses. Needless to say, our core urban areas should be avoided when things start falling apart. Our susceptibility to natural disasters is another crucial factor. Only this year, we have seen the worst drought on record, catastrophic wildfires, and a truly alarming water crisis. On Thursday, we had another example of our growing instability as Alaska was hit by a magnitude 8.2 earthquake, the largest earthquake to hit the U.S. since 1965. The brutal tremor triggered a tsunami warning and local evacuations along the southwest Gulf of Alaska coast after massive tsunami waves approached the shore.

Jeremy Zidek, a spokesman for the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, said the damages from the earthquake will be revealed throughout the week.

Sadly, considering how severe the climate crisis is getting, this is just the beginning. Economic and political tensions with other countries are also a factor to be considered, after all, it's very unlikely a global societal collapse would happen amid peaceful times. And if a major conflict erupts, the U.S. will probably be right in the middle of it. All of this means that many of the dangerous global trends we have been seeing develop over the course of several decades are now starting to accelerate, which is to say that the hour is late, and our time to get ready for the collapse of our civilization is rapidly running out."

"Game Over, Millions Of Evictions Begin; War On Home Ownership, Foreclosures Next; Banks Buy It All"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 8/1/21:
"Game Over, Millions Of Evictions Begin; 
War On Home Ownership, Foreclosures Next; Banks Buy It All"

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"The photographer had this shot in mind for some time. He knew that objects overhead are the brightest - since their light is scattered the least by atmospheric air. He also that knew the core of our Milky Way Galaxy was just about straight up near midnight around this time of year in South Australia. Chasing his mental picture, he ventured deep inside the Kuipto Forest where tall radiata pines blocked out much of the sky - but not in this clearing. There, through a window framed by trees, he captured his envisioned combination of local and distant nature. Sixteen exposures of both trees and the Milky Way Galaxy were recorded. 
Antares is the bright orange star to left of our Galaxy's central plane, while Alpha Centauri is the bright star just to the right of the image center. The direction toward our Galaxy's center is below Antares. Although in a few hours the Earth's rotation moved the Galactic plane up and to the left - soon invisible behind the timber, his mental image was secured forever - and is featured here."

"Life Comes at You Fast, So You Better Be Ready"

"Life Comes at You Fast, So You Better Be Ready"
by Ryan Holiday

"In 1880, Theodore Roosevelt wrote to his brother, “My happiness is so great that it makes me almost afraid.” In October of that year, life got even better. As he wrote in his diary the night of his wedding to Alice Hathaway Lee, “Our intense happiness is too sacred to be written about.” He would consider it to be one of the best years of his life: he got married, wrote a book, attended law school, and won his first election for public office.

The streak continued. In 1883, he wrote “I can imagine nothing more happy in life than an evening spent in the cozy little sitting room, before a bright fire of soft coal, my books all around me, and playing backgammon with my own dainty mistress.” And that’s how he and Alice spent that cold winter as it crawled into the new year. He wrote in late January that he felt he was fully coming into his own. “I feel now as though I have the reins in my hand.” On February 12th, 1884 his first daughter was born.

Two days later, his wife would be dead of Bright’s disease (now known as kidney failure). His mother had died only hours earlier in the same house, of typhoid fever. Roosevelt marked the day in his diary with a large “X.” Next to it, he wrote, “The light has gone out of my life.” As they say, life comes at you fast. 

Life comes at us fast, don’t it?  It can change in an instant. Everything you built, everyone you hold dear, can be taken from you. For absolutely no reason. Just as easily, you can be taken from them. This is why the Stoics say we need to be prepared, constantly, for the twists and turns of Fortune. It’s why Seneca said that nothing happens to the wise man contrary to his expectation, because the wise man has considered every possibility—even the cruel and heartbreaking ones.

And yet even Seneca was blindsided by a health scare in his early twenties that forced him to spend nearly a decade in Egypt to recover. He lost his father less than a year before he lost his first-born son, and twenty days after burying his son he was exiled by the emperor Caligula. He lived through the destruction of one city by a fire and another by an earthquake, before being exiled two more times.

One needs only to read his letters and essays, written on a rock off the coast of Italy, to get a sense that even a philosopher can get knocked on their ass and feel sorry for themselves from time to time.

What do we do? Well, first, knowing that life comes at us fast, we should be always prepared. Seneca wrote that the fighter who has “seen his own blood, who has felt his teeth rattle beneath his opponent’s fist… who has been downed in body but not in spirit…” - only they can go into the ring confident of their chances of winning. They know they can take getting bloodied and bruised. They know what the darkness before the proverbial dawn feels like. They have a true and accurate sense for the rhythms of a fight and what winning requires. That sense only comes from getting knocked around. That sense is only possible because of their training.

In his own life, Seneca bloodied and bruised himself through a practice called premeditatio malorum (“the premeditation of evils”). Rehearsing his plans, say to take a trip, he would go over the things that could go wrong or prevent the trip from happening - a storm could spring up, the captain could fall ill, the ship could be attacked by pirates, he could be banished to the island of Corsica the morning of the trip. By doing what he called a premeditatio malorum, Seneca was always prepared for disruption and always working that disruption into his plans. He was fitted for defeat or victory. He stepped into the ring confident he could take any blow. Nothing happened contrary to his expectations.

Second, we should always be careful not to tempt fate. In 2016 General Michael Flynn stood on the stage at the Republican National Convention and led some 20,000 people (and a good many more at home) in an impromptu chant of “Lock Her Up! Lock Her Up!” about his enemy Hillary Clinton. When Trump won, he was swept into office in a whirlwind of success and power. Then, just 24 days into his new job, Flynn was fired for lying to the Vice President about conversations he’d had with Sergey Kislyak, the Russian ambassador to the United States. He would be brought up on charges and convicted of lying to the FBI.

Life comes at us fast… but that doesn’t mean we should be stupid. We also shouldn’t be arrogant.

Third, we have to hang on. Remember, that in the depths of both of Seneca’s darkest moments, he was unexpectedly saved. From exile, he was suddenly recalled to be the emperor’s tutor. In the words of the historian Richard M. Gummere, “Fortune, whom Seneca as a Stoic often ridicules, came to his rescue.” But Churchill, as always, put it better: “Sometimes when Fortune scowls most spitefully, she is preparing her most dazzling gifts.”

Life is like this. It gives us bad breaks - heartbreakingly bad breaks - and it also gives us incredible lucky breaks. Sometimes the ball that should have gone in, bounces out. Sometimes the ball that had no business going in surprises both the athlete and the crowd when it eventually, after several bounces, somehow manages to pass through the net.

When we’re going through a bad break, we should never forget Fortune’s power to redeem us. When we’re walking through the roses, we should never forget how easily the thorns can tear us upon, how quickly we can be humbled. Sometimes life goes your way, sometimes it doesn’t.

This is what Theodore Roosevelt learned, too. Despite what he wrote in his diary that day in 1884, the light did not completely go out of Roosevelt’s life. Sure, it flickered. It looked like the flame might have been cruelly extinguished. But with time and incredible energy and force of will, he came back from those tragedies. He became a great father, a great husband, and a great leader. He came back and the world was better for it. He was better for it.

Life comes at us fast. Today. Tomorrow. When we least expect it. Be ready. Be strong. Don’t let your light be snuffed out.

"You May Wonder..."

"You may wonder about long-term solutions. I assure you, there are none. All wounds are mortal. Take what's given. You sometimes get a little slack in the rope but the rope always has an end. So what? Bless the slack and don't waste your breath cursing the drop. A grateful heart knows that in the end we all swing."
- Stephen King

The Daily "Near You?"

Gilmer, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"We Are All..."

"We are all of us born, live and die in the shadow
of a giant question mark that refers to three questions:
Where do we come from?
Why?
And where, oh where, are we going?"
- Tennessee Williams

"Will Most Of The U.S. Be Locked Down For Much Of The Second Half Of 2021?

"Will Most Of The U.S. Be Locked Down 
For Much Of The Second Half Of 2021?"
by Michael Snyder

"For most of the first half of 2021, the vast majority of Americans believed that the COVID pandemic was nearly over. But now the Delta variant has changed everything. We are being told that the number of confirmed cases is absolutely skyrocketing, and new mandates and restrictions are now being instituted all over the nation. If the number of newly confirmed cases each day continues to rise, could we also see a return of widespread lockdowns and school closings? Such a notion would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, but now the Biden administration is openly admitting that it is a possibility… "White House principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday that the Biden administration will continue to “listen to the scientists” when it comes to potential future lockdowns and school closures."

And as he was leaving for Camp David on Friday, Joe Biden made another comment which has a lot of people wondering what is coming next… "President Joe Biden signaled the onset of more restrictions to stem the spread of COVID-19 as the highly contagious delta variant rips through the nation. While departing for Camp David on Friday, the commander in chief shouted a response to a reporter who asked if people should expect tougher constraints than what’s already been implemented. “In all probability,” he replied."

Of course Joe Biden does not have the authority to order lockdowns in every state. Ultimately, it will be up to individual state governors to order new lockdowns, but if the Biden administration recommends lockdowns most of them will fall in line. In addition, on Thursday Biden seemed to suggest that the idea of some sort of a nationwide vaccine mandate is being explored… "Asked about doing even more to get people vaccinated through mandates by states, localities, and businesses, Biden said he wants them to ‘continue to move in that direction.’ He also didn’t rule out the idea of a national mandate, though he wouldn’t vouch for the authority. ‘It’s still a question of whether the federal government can mandate the whole country. I don’t know that yet.’

Such a mandate would surely be challenged in court, but as CNN has explained, the Biden administration may not need to issue a nationwide mandate because so many private employers are now mandating the vaccine… "The CNN article, however, contends it may not even be necessary for the federal government to do something as radical as mandating the vaccine, suggesting it may become nearly impossible to participate in everyday life without one if employers, stores, and hospitals impose requirements one by one. “The federal government may not try to force people to get the Covid vaccine,” the report reads. “And it may not have to.” “Your employer, the restaurant where you want to eat, the concert venue you want to visit or the country where you want to travel may do it for them,” it adds."

At this point, many of the biggest employers in America have already pulled the trigger. Walmart is the largest employer in the country, and on Friday they announced a very strict new vaccine policy… "Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon said Friday the retailer’s corporate staff as well as its management-level employees must be vaccinated against Covid-19 by Oct. 4, according to a memo obtained by CNBC. The mandate applies to all home office associates, in addition to market, regional and divisional employees who work in multiple facilities, the nation’s largest private employer said.

Disney also announced a very broad vaccine mandate on Friday… "The Walt Disney Company said Friday it is requiring all salaried and non-union hourly employees in the U.S. to be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus by the end of September. Employees who are still working from home will be required to provide verification of vaccination prior to returning to any Disney sites, including theme parks and offices."

Many big tech companies are jumping on board as well. For example, Facebook will be requiring “anyone coming to work” to be vaccinated… "Facebook will require U.S. workers returning to its offices to be vaccinated, the company said on Wednesday. “As our offices reopen, we will be requiring anyone coming to work at any of our US campuses to be vaccinated,” VP of People Lori Goler said in a statement."

Needless to say, people that refuse to take the vaccines will find their employment options increasingly limited in the months ahead. Meanwhile we received some very interesting news about the Delta variant on Friday. The following comes from CNBC… "About three-fourths of people infected in a Massachusetts Covid-19 outbreak were fully vaccinated against the coronavirus with four of them ending up in the hospital, according to new data published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The new data, published in the U.S. agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, also found that fully vaccinated people who get infected carry as much of the virus in their nose as unvaccinated people, and could spread it to other individuals."

Sadly, these numbers from Massachusetts appear to fit very well with a pattern that is emerging nationwide. The following comes from NBC News… "At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid and 1,400 of those have died, according to data collected by NBC News."

Those numbers are really shocking.

So how bad will things get in the months ahead? Many Americans had been hoping for a return to normalcy, but as I keep warning, our world is only going to get even weirder in the years ahead. At this point, we have entered a chapter in our history when change is happening faster than ever before. In particular, this pandemic has radically transformed our society in a very short period of time, and it has become clear that it isn’t even close to being over."
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A Counter-The-Doom-And-Gloom Musical Interlude: Talking Heads, "Life During Wartime"

Full screen!
Talking Heads, "Life During Wartime",
LIVE at Pantages Theater, Los Angeles '83

"How It Really Is"

 

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Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/1/21: "Markets, A Look Ahead"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/1/21:
"Markets, A Look Ahead"

Saturday, July 31, 2021

Greg Hunter, "Fed Trying to Keep Economy from Collapse – John Williams"

"Fed Trying to Keep Economy from Collapse – John Williams"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the economy is much weaker than it appears. Williams cuts through the phony gimmicked government numbers to give a true economic picture. His analysis shows the economy is already slowing down anew. This is why the Fed just announced it will not be ending the massive money printing and start the so-called “taper” anytime soon. Williams explains, “What they are doing right now is trying to keep economic activity from collapsing. At the same time, all that they are doing in the way of spending and what the Fed is doing with all this money creation is triggering inflation. Inflation in the GDP was at a 40 year high. This is not a good sign because the inflation is difficult to bring under control once it’s out of control. We are getting very close to that. Inflation is around 13% the way I measure it.”

Is the inflation going to be “transitory” as the Fed keeps telling us? Williams says “No,” and goes on to say, “Inflation keeps going up. In Social Security, you might get a 7% bump, but you might be at 20% inflation next year. I think we are still at high risk of this evolving into a hyperinflation. Fed Head Powell just said inflation could be more serious than they are projecting, but if the Fed was convinced of that, they would take action to bring it under control. We will see what happens.”

If the Fed actually had to start fighting inflation, would they crash the economy? Williams says, “Probably. This is why the Fed is doing what it is doing because they don’t want to crash the economy. The economy is not as advertised. The Fed sees two things: One, they still see a very weak economy despite the happy GDP numbers this week. They also want to see full employment, and they don’t see that until 2022 or 2023. So, they are going to keep their easy money policies in effect. They are going to keep printing the money. They are putting the money into the system to keep the system liquid. It’s not a stable circumstance. We do not have a normal economy yet, and we don’t have normal financial markets. It’s unstable times. I would protect myself and I would be holding silver and gold. The reason I suggest this is if we get into a really bad inflation here, something like a hyperinflation, which I think is a real risk, the precious metals will tend to maintain their purchasing power. Weimar Germany in the early 1920’s effectively devolved into a barter system. Gold and silver will retain their value.”

Williams is still predicting “In early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One 
with John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com.