"Only 9 Days of Sour Crude Left in the US SPR?"

"Only 9 Days of Sour Crude Left in the US SPR?"

by Larry C. Johnson

"Before diving into the headline of this article, the body of the former Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who died on February 28 as a result of American-Israeli strikes, has been delivered to Tehran. This marks the start of a week long memorial service, with farewell ceremonies that will take place in several cities across Iran before concluding with the burial in Mashhad on July 9. Representatives of more than 100 countries will be attending, including Russia, China and India. Looney

Laura Loomer is calling for Israel to attack the gathering and murder the new Ayatollah, among others. She apparently does not comprehend that such an attack would likely produce a retaliation against Israel that would threaten the very survival of that nation. While Israel has a track record of launching reckless attacks, I don’t think that Bibi and his generals are this crazy.

The real news is on the oil front. I want to remind you what , President Donald Trump said at the G7 summit in June 2026 regarding the world’s oil supplies: “We only have about 4 weeks of oil left if the Strait stays closed. We have to get it open - now. This is not sustainable.”

I think the vast majority of people who heard Trump’s statement assumed that this applies to both sweet and sour crude. It does not. It is all about the sour crude, which is the source of diesel and aviation fuels.

On March 11, 2026, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over approximately 120 days in response to rising oil prices resulting from United States attacks on Iran. At that drawdown pace - roughly 1.4 million barrels per day - the sour component of the SPR would be depleted of the released portion within the 120-day window, without any Persian Gulf replacement arriving via Cape routing until late summer at the earliest. So let’s do the math: 20 days in March, 30 days in April, 31 days in May, 30 days in June = 111 days. In other words, we have 9 days of sour crude left in the SPR.

Why is sour crude more important than sweet crude to the US economy? The first thing that seems counterintuitive is that sour crude - crude with high sulfur content, which sounds undesirable - is actually the preferred feedstock for complex US refineries producing diesel and jet fuel. This is not in spite of the sulfur but because of the broader molecular characteristics that accompany high-sulfur crude grades. In other words, without sour crude the US refineries will not be able to produce diesel and jet fuel.

Sour crude grades from the Persian Gulf - Arab Light, Basrah Light, Kuwait Export, Mars blend - tend to share a cluster of properties beyond just sulfur content: API gravity in the medium range (28–34°). This is critical. The atmospheric distillation column separates crude oil into fractions by boiling point. The middle distillate fraction - which produces both diesel and jet fuel —-is a specific cut of the barrel, roughly the 155–360°C boiling range. Medium-gravity crudes yield a larger proportion of this middle distillate cut per barrel than either very light crudes (which produce more naphtha and gasoline fractions) or very heavy crudes (which produce more vacuum gas oil and residual fuel oil). A medium-gravity sour crude like Arab Light yields approximately 30–35% of its barrel as middle distillates.

Naphthenic and paraffinic character compatible with distillate quality. Medium sour Gulf crudes tend to have a molecular composition in the middle distillate cut that, once hydrotreated to remove sulfur, produces diesel with good cetane numbers and jet fuel with acceptable freeze points without excessive additional processing. Once the sour crude in the SPR is exhausted, the US does not have an alternative supply - i.e., the US is dependent on sour crude imports.

Although Trump signed the MoU with Iran in order to get the sour crude flowing again - note that JD Vance admitted in an interview with the Daily Wire on Wednesday that the only reason the US signed the MoU was to rebuild US reserves - the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf is not heading to the US. According to Reuters: "Saudi Aramco, opens new tab resumed loadings from Ras Tanura, the world’s largest oil port, on Friday ​after a halt of nearly four months. The Saudi national oil company is ramping up loadings and shipments ​to Asia, adding to a prompt glut that has depressed Brent crude to about $70 a ⁠barrel from close to $120 in March following the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal.

In addition to using its Bahri tanker fleet to ​deliver the cargoes, the world’s top oil exporter offered the crude to its Asian customers on a spot pricing basis ​to attract demand as competition among suppliers heats up, said several trade sources who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter."

At least five supertankers carrying a total 10 million barrels ‌of Saudi oil loaded from Ras Tanura have exited the Strait of Hormuz […] Two of the ​five very large crude carriers ⁠that have left the strait are heading to Japan, while another two are making their way to China. Even if a convoy of tankers left the Persian Gulf on Friday heading to the US, the voyage will take at least 42 days, which means that the US will be in a serious deficit of sour crude from 12 July until 23 August at the earliest. During that period we are likely to see the price of diesel and aviation fuel increase dramatically. Now do you understand why Trump signed the MoU with Iran?

With respect to growing tensions between Russia and NATO, a Russian military ship, which was escorting a sanctioned tanker, collided with a German coast guard vessel in the Baltic Sea on Tuesday, according to the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti. Collided is probably a translation exaggeration… The two vessels did not actually physically come in contact.

The Kira K tanker, which is under sanctions, was transporting oil through the Fehmarn Sound strait. A German coast guard ship, the Bayeruth, began approaching it. However, the Russian corvette “Sobrazitelny” approached from the east at high speed and announced: “This is the Russian military ship 531, stay away from the Kira K.” After this, the German vessel retreated, and the tanker continued its journey towards the Danish Straits. I think it is only a matter of time before incidents like this escalate into a full shooting war between Russia and the NATO states."

- https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/

Gerald Celente, "Markets Get Hotter, Bigs Get Bigger, AI in Charge"

Strong language alert!

Gerald Celente, 7/2/26

"Markets Get Hotter, Bigs Get Bigger, AI in Charge"

"The June jobs report is out, the markets are soaring, and AI is taking over. But what's really driving the economy? Gerald Celente breaks down today's market action, exposes the trends behind the headlines, and reveals what's coming next. Learn how the biggest players keep getting bigger - and what you can do now to prepare. Subscribe for trend forecasts, market analysis, and insights you won't find in the mainstream media. Read history before it happens."

- https://trendsjournal.com/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The End Of Social Media Begging Is The Final Stage Of Collapse"

Jeremiah Babe, 7/2/26

"The End Of Social Media Begging 

Is The Final Stage Of Collapse"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Something Is Seriously Wrong At Walmart And Customers Are Furious"

Full screen recommended.

Epic Economist, 7/2/26

"Something Is Seriously Wrong 

At Walmart And Customers Are Furious"

"Digital price tags at major retailers are changing prices while you shop, and customers are documenting the gap between shelf and register. This video shows shoppers tracking how the displayed price stopped matching the ring-up, sometimes around 30% of the time. You'll see snack bars climb in real time, receipt comparisons, vacuum tags marked one cent that scan higher, and the spread of digital pricing across roughly 4,600 stores nationwide. 

What This Video Covers: 

• Shoppers filming prices change on digital tags while standing in the aisle. 

• Receipts showing self-checkout totals higher than the marked shelf price. 

• A two-and-a-half-year tracking effort finding mismatches about 30% of the time.

• Concerns about surge pricing and cut hours as labor drops about 75%. 

• AI carts and cameras raising questions about surveillance and personalized pricing. 

• Customers pushing back on receipt checks and missing produce prices. 

If you've noticed the price changing between the aisle and the register, tell us in the comments where it happened to you and what the gap was. Subscribe for more breakdowns of how retail pricing technology is changing, and share this with anyone who shops these stores regularly so they know what to watch for at checkout. This video looks at Walmart digital price tags, surge pricing concerns, self-checkout receipt mismatches, surveillance pricing, AI grocery carts, retail receipt checks, and how the industry shifts the work of confirming prices onto everyday shoppers."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

A Blues Musical Interlude: Foy Vance, Ed Sheeran, "Make it Rain"

Foy Vance, "Make it Rain"

The original, Ed Sheeran's version is the cover.

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Ed Sheeran, "Make it Rain"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“From Sagittarius to Carina, the Milky Way Galaxy shines in this dark night sky above planet Earth’s lush island paradise of Mangaia. Familiar to denizens of the southern hemisphere, the gorgeous skyscape includes the bulging galactic center at the upper left and bright stars Alpha and Beta Centauri just right of center. About 10 kilometers wide, volcanic Mangaia is the southernmost of the Cook Islands. Geologists estimate that at 18 million years old it is the oldest island in the Pacific Ocean.

Of course, the Milky Way is somewhat older, with the galaxy’s oldest stars estimated to be over 13 billion years old. (Editor’s note: This image holds the distinction of being selected as winner in the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, Astronomy Photographer of the Year competition in the Earth and Space category.)“

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap110924.html

Where the Sea Brings Smiles Every Morning"

Full screen recommended.

John AI Art,

"Where the Sea Brings Smiles Every Morning"

Native Elder, "Gratitude"

Full screen recommended.

Native Elder, "Gratitude"

"Pain Ain't Gonna Stop Me"

Full screen recommended.

Delta King's Blues,

"Pain Ain't Gonna Stop Me"

"The aches got louder… but so did my determination. “Pain Ain’t Gonna Stop Me” is a powerful, resilient Delta King’s Blues anthem about pushing forward through hard times, worn-out bones, and every challenge life throws your way. A gritty, determined acoustic guitar drives the groove like boots marching through mud without turning back. The harmonica cries bold and defiant, carrying the spirit of someone who refuses to surrender to the years. The rhythm rolls slow but relentless, built for folks who know that strength isn’t about feeling no pain - it’s about moving anyway. This is blues for fighters. For people who wake up sore, tired, and weathered… yet still get up and face another day.  Pain may ride beside me… but it sure ain’t driving."

The Daily "Near You?"

Jewett City, Connecticut, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Any Other View..."

"Human beings never think for themselves, they find it too uncomfortable. For the most part, members of our species simply repeat what they are told - and become upset if they are exposed to any different view. The characteristic human trait is not awareness but conformity, and the characteristic result is religious warfare. Other animals fight for territory or food; but, uniquely in the animal kingdom, human beings fight for their 'beliefs.' The reason is that beliefs guide behavior, which has evolutionary importance among human beings. But at a time when our behavior may well lead us to extinction, I see no reason to assume we have any awareness at all. We are stubborn, self-destructive conformists. Any other view of our species is just a self-congratulatory delusion."

- Michael Crichton, "The Lost World"

The Poet: Mary Oliver, "The Journey"

"The Journey"

"One day you finally knew

what you had to do, and began,

though the voices around you

kept shouting

their bad advice -

though the whole house

began to tremble

and you felt the old tug

at your ankles.

 Mend my life! 

each voice cried.

But you didn't stop.

You knew what you had to do,

though the wind pried

with its stiff fingers

at the very foundations,

though their melancholy

was terrible.

It was already late

enough, and a wild night,

and the road full of fallen

branches and stones.

But little by little,

as you left their voices behind,

the stars began to burn

through the sheets of clouds,

and there was a new voice

which you slowly

recognized as your own,

that kept you company

as you strode deeper and deeper

into the world,

determined to do

the only thing you could do -

determined to save

the only life you could save." 

- Mary Oliver

"Man's Nature..."

"Man has one name, and many more than two natures. But the essential

two are these: that he shall strive to impose order on chaos,

and that he shall strive to take advantage of chaos…

A third element of man's nature is this:

that he shall not understand what he is doing."

- John Brunner

"What’s The Meaning Of Life? It’s Right Here"

"What’s The Meaning Of Life? It’s Right Here"

by John Wilder

"What are we here for? It’s a big question, and one we have to ask now. Sadly, I think the answer for many people would be, “inexpensive Chinese-made throw pillows, new Marvel® movies, and the next iPhone®.”

For most of my life, it was a clear question that didn’t involve any of those things, except maybe affordable throw pillows, because they wear out so very quickly. At some point though, I figured it out. What was it? The meaning of life, or at least the abridged version. The existence of my generation, of any generation, was for two reasons:

First, to create the next generation. It’s the toughest and most fun work in the world. A family, working together, would do the best job possible at creating the best children possible. Why do we need those children? Why do they need to be better?

The “why” is the essence of the second reason. There are more challenges, literally an infinite set of challenges, that are before us. There are more horizons for us to conquer – we may have been to the Moon, but we don’t live there. We have sent robots to Mars, but we haven’t visited. Humanity has a job, and it has always been clear to me that our job was not yet done, at least not until we have developed a reliable way to make the PEZ®/Anti-PEZ™ drive (LINK).

Both of those answers rely on optimism. I think that optimism is justly earned. Even though humans have created unimaginable horrors, they have created, time and time again, amazing wonders. As Shakespeare’s Hamlet noted: "What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world, the paragon of animals!"

What I see today, however, isn’t the wonder of man, it’s the crisis we face with apprehension. It consists of multiple fronts.

Energy: Even though we are up against physical limits on the energy systems that we use, the idiocy of the Green Energy™ movement feels more like a mutual suicide pact. The use of energy, primarily since the Industrial Revolution has created the greatest amount of prosperity and well-being the world has ever seen. It is an absolute certainty that if the Leftists have their way, the amount of misery around the world will make World War II seem like a carnival ride. I mean, not a good carnival ride, but at least it would have Patton.

Family: One of the primary reasons for civilization in the first place is that it creates the basis for making itself better, and that basis is the family. Children are not easy to raise. Any single parent working by themselves would have been my victim. It took both Pa Wilder and Ma Wilder (along with my brother, John Wilder) to make me a better person than Feral John Wilder would have become. Family is important, and you can’t make good and strong children without one.

Morality: Morality is crucial. We have moved away from the moral basics that have created Western Civilization, and inverted them. We used to celebrate the beautiful, and now celebrate the ugly. And Pride Festivals®? Pride was a sin. And it still is. Unless it involves lions.

Who are the enemies? The Globalist Left: This is a big bunch, but they come in two flavors.

The Globalist Left - The Antifa Gang: These are people, who, generally despise themselves. They revel in ugliness, because they feel that they’re ugly inside. They look at society and hate it. They want to watch it all burn. They hate themselves, and want to make the world outside as horrifying as the world they hold inside themselves. This probably describes everyone that works at CNN®.

The Globalist Left – The Elite: They always seem to exist. They were there at the fall of Rome, they were there when the Library of Alexandria was sacked, when Russia became a killing ground, and when China killed uncountable millions. They appear to be the parasites that are jealous of real achievement and seek to game society so that they can come to power. They also appear to gravitate to power for the sake of power, and delight in the destruction of anything as long as it brings them wealth and comfort, even if it kills the host society.

Technology: I could go on all day, but there are two that jump out – they are the two most destabilizing technologies that exist today. Technology is difficult, because now it moves so quickly, but humans don’t adapt to it very quickly at all. I mean, VCRs existed and no one ever figured out how to stop the blinking 12:00.

Technology Itself – The Pill: To a certain extent, one of the big foes of humanity right now is our state of technological advancement itself. Multiple technological advances have created stresses that have never been seen before in human history. The first of these, The Pill, was a disaster. Some of the oldest rules to make society stable were about marriage and reproduction. Why? The stability of the family structure was ripped apart by The Pill, and the divorces started not long afterward.

Technology Itself – Social Media: When the printing press was originally invented, it opened a world where the knowledge of the entire history of mankind could be shared. When the Internet developed, all of that knowledge could be shared freely. Instead, the Internet has become a dopamine factory that is one of the most insidious narcissism trap in the history of humanity. What could have united us has, instead, created zombies of people who sit in restaurants staring at their phones rather than talking to each other and having authentic conversations. This has created a world with artificial closeness between people who have no connection, and artificial barriers between those who should be close.

Obviously, I could keep going. The enemies of that which is Right, True, and Good are legion. The methods they use are diverse. If I were writing a screenplay, I’d be wondering how I write myself out of this predicament. Thankfully, the answer is that I don’t have to. Western Civilization has defeated enemies just like these for thousands of years. We have been at the breaking point again and again. It is true, we won’t be the same after this crisis. There’s no guarantee that the crisis won’t last for decades. And I promise it really will be the most difficult thing that any of us live through. I mean, those of us that make it.

So, what are we here for? We’re here to carry the torch forward. To have wonderful children that exceed us in our capacity, because there are tough horizons, and more work to be done. We are building the people that will take us into the future. They are our children. We build them for the future, so that they can build the future, despite the obstacles and enemies of humanity. And we’ll win. We always have."

- https://wilderwealthywise.com/

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Click image for larger size.

Adventures With Danno, "This Is Getting Worse By The Minute! Massive Food Recall!"

Adventures With Danno, 7/2/26

"This Is Getting Worse By The Minute! 

Massive Food Recall!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"How It Really Is"

 

"The Truth Virus: The Most Dangerous Virus in the World"

"The Truth Virus:

The Most Dangerous Virus in the World"

by Dog Poet

"I’ve got a virus. It doesn’t have a common name because it isn’t a common virus. It’s difficult to catch this virus because there are only so many ways for it to enter your system. You can catch it as a result of extreme trauma which results in all of your defenses being shut down. This includes all subconscious resistance and all systemic defenses. You can catch it as a result of long term abuse. This includes abuse visited upon you or abuse you visit on yourself. Often this abuse comes about because the virus is already looking for a foothold and it will attract one of these two kinds of abuse. You can catch it through diligent and repeated efforts to catch it, in an environment of quietude, created by a relentless persistence of the mind to cease from the production of thought. There are a few other ways.

Once you’ve got this virus there’s no cure for it. Every cell in your body is going to be replaced and the world will gradually - and sometimes not so gradually - take on the appearance of an insane asylum, while also becoming remarkably predictable. People think insanity is unpredictable but that’s just one of the illusions that are part of the ordinary mindset of the collectively insane.

People who have this virus can understand one another without having to say anything at all and if they should speak they are also understood by people who are vulnerable to this virus. This is one of the ways that the virus spreads. The impact of the virus speaking induces trauma that naturally moves toward the extreme. People who do not have the virus- and who are not susceptible to catching it- will not understand a single word being said. It will make them uncomfortable and sometimes it will make them angry but at no time will it be understood.

There’s a lot of news, noise and argument about Howdy Doody’s comprehensive health plan for the Teletubbies. Most people think that some permutation of universal health care is going to be a major step up for American society. They seem to think that having it is somehow going to lead to a more general state of well being among the population. There are several reasons why this isn’t going to make the slightest difference no matter what kind of a program finally gets decided on.

It doesn’t really matter whether you can see a doctor of your choice or not and have some amount of it paid for. It isn’t going to have any positive effect on your health. Health is the result of a few basic things and one of them is youth. The other things are diet and ones mental and emotional state. An awareness of ones relationship to all of these leads to making the right decisions about how one lives their life. A conscious awareness of diet has a profound effect on one’s well being. One’s mental and emotional states also play significant roles. One needs only to study how many stress-related diseases there are to understand this. If you factor bad diet into unbalanced mental and emotional states you’ve got a problem no doctor can deal with, especially if your medical system is of the allopathic variety.

The people who decide what doctors can and cannot do and what doctors can and cannot tell you are permanent bed-partners with various corporations for whom good health is a bad thing. These are the pharmaceutical concerns; the AMA, the hospital equipment industry and related suppliers of related products. These corporations have another relationship with the various food industries in the sense that they will not write or permit policy that impinges on major enterprises that bring you processed foods, fast foods, mystery meats, candy and soft drinks and whatever else hides under that umbrella. What this means is that, according to the capitalist mentality that rules this society, it is possible; it has to be possible and it damn well will be possible to eat anything you want, avoid exercise and generally break any and every rule of intelligent behavior and if there’s a problem they will either cut it out of you or suppress the symptoms until they have to cut it out of you.

Because the will of corporations is the rule of the land, there will be no change in the profit line for participating corporations. What will change will be the language that the non-change is presented in. To see into the black heart of the system in charge of American life you have only to look into the prison industry where 5% of the American public and 25% of the world’s prison population are incarcerated in American prisons. Why is this? It’s a business. Is it coincidence that America uses 60% of the world’s resources as well?

The unstated objective of American society is that a small percentage of its members shall possess the greatest amount of wealth at the expense of everyone else and will then be lauded for their efforts to assist the less fortunate where no such efforts exist. Such a system cannot survive and will not survive and is presently at the state where a number of shell games are being used to give the impression that the system is doing fine (nicely recovering from a bad scare) and going to get better as it approaches the lip of a high cliff. As things begin to fall from the cliff, you will see charts and graphs appear that indicate the true state and direction of the culture and economy but they will probably be holding these charts and graphs upside down.

I see these things and many other things because I have this virus. Others have this virus too and many more are on the verge of infection. The biggest concern of the TPTB is the proliferation of this virus. Their concern about all other viruses, which they manufactured to begin with, is just Slim Shady dining at the Red Herring Restaurant.

With this virus I can see that the appetites and desires being milked by corporations in order to promote and sell their products leads directly to aberrant behavior which leads to the prison industry for those who are not making the laws that route the unfortunate toward the prison or the grave with that long interlude of enslavement at the looping track of life where they chase the uncatchable dream rabbit that is already steaming in the pot of their betters.

With this virus I can look directly at the lies of politicians and religious leaders and hear the truth that spotlights the pies around the corner and their relationship to the pies in the sky which are moving on conveyor belts behind unbreakable Plexiglas. I can see that there are no pies because the pies are only video projections of pies bounced off of a series of mirrors. I can see the people who do no have the virus and I can see the world they are looking at and it turns out that this world is also just a projection bouncing off of mirrors and one of those mirrors is their minds. These projections then activate the furnace in the visceral brain which causes those without the virus to dance like millions of chickens on a hot griddle that somehow got the impression that they are auditioning for American Idol.

It is not possible to create a society, based on the principles that some of us have read and most of us have heard about, when corporations are the ruling authority of the land, because the intent of a corporation is diametrically opposed to the principles that some of us have read and most of us have heard about. You can’t make Beef Stroganoff out of pork rinds and Velveeta but you can convince people that that is what they are eating and that is the point.

There’s a debate that has been going around since Cain brained Abel and that debate centers on whether it is better to have this virus or some form of all the other viruses. The awareness that comes with having this virus can lead to the rack, the auto da fe and other less pleasant locations. Having the other viruses can lead to being a hamster or some part of a compost pile and a fire burns there as well. They can lead to being cannon fodder and the merciless hands of those who practice a form of medicine that has little to do with the stated intentions of the art. The hands of these practitioners are often more dangerous than the problem that brought you there. Most people spend more than ninety percent of everything they have saved in their lives in the last year of their life on an industry whose purpose is exactly for that reason.

This virus of mine - and perhaps you have it too - is not an easy burden to bear. You can never pull the covers over your head again. You know there’s no monster in the closet but you also know where the real monsters dwell. You are doomed to an unending quarantine even as you move among your fellows. One thing you do acquire as a result of this virus is compassion and, as Lao Tzu said long ago, “Compassion is a weapon from the sky against being dead.” Realization may not be all the things we imagine it to be, but it is preferable to the restless sleep of nightmares wielded by the whip hand of psychopaths."

- http://rockthetruth.blogspot.com/

"One Can Fight Evil..."

Boobus Americanus, champion of willful ignorance.

They don't know because they don't want to know...

○

'One can fight evil but against stupidity one is helpless.'
- Henry Miller

○

 "Alas, regardless of their doom,

The little victims play!

No sense have they of ills to come,

Nor care beyond to-day..."

- https://coyoteprimeblog2.blogspot.com/

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Oh, we so deserve what we get...

Dan, I Allegedly, "Your Power Is About To Go Out"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly, 7/2/26

"Your Power Is About To Go Out"

"America's power grid is being pushed to the limit as record-breaking heat sends electricity demand soaring across the country. The nation's largest power grid has issued emergency warnings, utility companies are struggling with aging infrastructure, and millions of Americans are facing higher electric bills just to stay cool. In this video, I break down why power outages, rolling blackouts, and rising energy costs are becoming a growing concern, how decades of underinvestment have left the electrical grid vulnerable, and why this could impact everything from traffic lights and hospitals to grocery stores, ATMs, and your own home. 

If you've wondered whether the power grid can handle another extreme summer, this is a discussion you won't want to miss. We also discuss the economic impact of skyrocketing utility costs, inflation, the cost of living, and why reliable electricity has become one of the biggest financial issues facing American families. I'll explain what the warnings from grid operators really mean, why demand continues to explode from air conditioning, AI data centers, electric vehicles, and population growth, and most importantly, what you can do to prepare your family before the next outage. As always, we connect the dots between business news and life. Be sure to subscribe to i Allegedly for daily updates on business, finance, the economy, and the biggest stories impacting your money."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Traffic Through The Strait Of Hormuz Is Way Below Pre-War Levels As Trump Is Briefed On Options For 'All-Out War'”

"Traffic Through The Strait Of Hormuz Is Way Below 

Pre-War Levels As Trump Is Briefed On Options For 'All-Out War'”

by Michael Snyder

"The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is not even close to being resolved, and global oil supplies continue to get tighter and tighter. The world has been running an “oil deficit” for months, and we have been able to do that by running down commercial oil inventories and strategic national reserves. There was hope that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would return to pre-war levels before things got really hairy, but that isn’t happening. In fact, in recent days only about 30 to 40 commercial vessels have been traveling through the Strait each day. Before the war, the average was about 120 to 130 commercial vessels per day. The vast majority of the commercial vessels that have been getting through the Strait have been heading away from the Persian Gulf. Very few are headed into the Persian Gulf for understandable reasons. So once the backlog of commercial vessels that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf is finally eliminated, the level of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will likely drop to depressingly low levels.

So we should be thankful that the price of oil has dropped a bit lower for now, but it won’t stay that way. And that will especially be true if war with Iran fully erupts again. We have seen fighting flare up multiple times in recent weeks, and it certainly wouldn’t take much to push things over the edge.

On Wednesday, it was being reported that President Trump has been briefed on options for “a return to all-out war with Iran”…"President Trump has weighed a return to all-out war with Iran, holding multiple conversations in recent days with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine on more strikes, but has decided to stick with diplomatic talks for now, according to U.S. officials familiar with the discussion.

The conversations have centered on whether the U.S. should abandon negotiations and resume full-scale attacks on Iran, the officials said, a move some of them describe as “finishing the job.” While not making a final decision, Trump has told aides he believes another round of full-scale attacks could derail diplomacy and hurt Washington’s chances of ultimately dismantling Iran’s nuclear program." I was quite surprised when I read that. I didn’t think that Trump and his team had an appetite for more conflict right now.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi just used some very strong language in an extremely inflammatory social media post…"The terms of the Islamabad MoU are crystal clear and public for all to see. POTUS has committed the U.S. to muzzling its pets in Tel Aviv. If they ignore their master, Iran will school them. Any threat against our People and Leadership will receive Immediate Powerful Response."

This is a threat to attack Israel. The Iranians are demanding that the Israelis must withdraw from Lebanon, but the Israelis continue to tell us that this will simply not happen…Israel’s defense minister said Wednesday that forces would remain “indefinitely” in so-called security zones established in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. “The IDF will not withdraw and will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza – indefinitely – to protect our residents and communities from jihadist elements,” Israel Katz said. “We are fighting to change reality and bring security to the residents of the north,” he added, referring to communities along Israel’s border with Lebanon from which thousands of people have been evacuated due to the threat posed by Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

The Israelis are absolutely determined to stop the bombardment of their northern communities. Since early March, Hezbollah has fired “more than 7,000 rockets, missiles and drones” into Israeli territory…Israeli officials say Hezbollah has launched more than 7,000 rockets, missiles and drones into Israel since early March while embedding military infrastructure inside civilian areas and Christian villages in southern Lebanon.

The claims were made by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar during MUNI EXPO in Tel Aviv as Israel, Lebanon and the United States continue negotiations aimed at securing Hezbollah’s disarmament and a lasting peace agreement. “Since March alone, Hezbollah has launched more than 7,000 rockets, missiles and drones from Lebanese territory into Israel,” Sa’ar said. “What country can accept this and not act to restore security to its citizens?”

It is inevitable that Hezbollah will fire more rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel. In response, Israel will bomb southern Beirut again. The Iranians have already told us that if Israel does that again they will fire ballistic missiles at Israel. And once that occurs, the IDF will strike back extremely hard.

I don’t know what those that are convinced that there will be peace in the Middle East are smoking, but it must be really strong. When more fighting erupts in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will drop lower than it is now. And that is very bad news, because even though the “Memorandum of Understanding” was signed a couple of weeks ago, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain at very low levels…

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz began to rebound Monday following weekend tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Reports from the maritime tracking firm Kpler said 40 vessels passed through the critical waterway on Monday, while 24 ships transited the strait on Sunday in addition to 39 ships on Saturday. Almost all of the commercial vessels that are passing through the Strait are headed out. Very few are headed in. And many of the ships that are actually headed in are Iranian.

For now, most shipping companies continue to treat the Strait of Hormuz “as a war zone”…Unions and shipping employers said in a statement Wednesday they will continue to designate the Strait of Hormuz as a war zone until at least July 9, maintaining double pay for seafarers in the area despite a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran. The status only covers ships whose companies are signatories of the International Bargaining Forum’s labor agreements - around 15,000 vessels worldwide, according to the IBF.

Seafarers covered by the agreement working on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters get paid double, and have the right to refuse to sail into the area and request repatriation at the company’s expense, increasing costs for shipping companies.

This is really bad news for the global economy. On top of everything else, Ukraine’s endless bombardment of Russian oil facilities has caused gasoline shortages all over Russia… Fuel shortages across Russia have triggered a new political challenge for President Vladimir Putin, as a relentless Ukrainian drone campaign aimed at the country’s oil refineries has brought the war home for most ordinary Russians.

While Ukraine has targeted Russian energy facilities for years, the quantity and firepower of Ukrainian drones and missiles have risen. This has allowed Kyiv to hit refineries as far as Tyumen, 1,200 miles away in Siberia, and permitted the spectacular raid that broke through thick layers of air defenses and destroyed Moscow’s main refinery on June 18, the turning point of the current crisis. Some 28% of Russia’s refining capacity was offline as of June 20, estimated Sergey Vakulenko, former head of strategy at Gazprom Neft, a large Russian oil company, and now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

Russia is one of the largest oil producers on the entire planet. But now the Russians are being forced to actually import fuel thanks to Ukraine. Everything that I have shared in this article means that global supplies of oil are going to continue to become tighter and tighter in the weeks and months ahead. In other words, the stage is being set for a severe global energy crisis and a mammoth global economic meltdown. For the moment, many investors are still feeling very optimistic about things, but it won’t be too long before they are brutally blindsided by reality."

- https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/