Tuesday, October 18, 2022

"The Food Crisis Of 2023 Is Going To Be Far Worse Than Most People Would Dare To Imagine"

"The Food Crisis Of 2023 Is Going To Be Far 
Worse Than Most People Would Dare To Imagine"
by Michael Snyder

"I am trying to sound the alarm about this as loudly as I can. The global food crisis just continues to intensify, and things are going to get really bad in 2023. As you will see below, two-thirds of European fertilizer production has already been shut down, currency problems are causing massive headaches for poor nations that need to import food, global weather patterns continue to be completely crazy, and the bird flu is killing millions upon millions of chickens and turkeys all over the planet. On top of everything else, the war in Ukraine is going to restrict the flow of agricultural and fertilizer exports from that part of the world for a long time to come, because there is no end to the war in sight. In essence, we are facing a “perfect storm” for global food production, and that “perfect storm” is only going to get worse in the months ahead.

Global hunger has been on the rise for years, and the UN World Food Program is warning that we are heading for “yet another year of record hunger”… "The world is at risk of yet another year of record hunger as the global food crisis continues to drive yet more people into worsening levels of severe hunger, warns the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) in a call for urgent action to address the root causes of today’s crisis ahead of World Food Day on October 16.

The global food crisis is a confluence of competing crises – caused by climate shocks, conflict and economic pressures – that has pushed the number of severely hungry people around the world from 282 million to 345 million in just the first months of 2022. The U.N. World Food Programme scaled up food assistance targets to reach a record 153 million people in 2022, and by mid-year had already delivered assistance to 111.2 million people."

But as I have consistently warned, this is only just the beginning. Eventually, there will be billions of people that don’t have enough to eat on a regular basis. In all my years, I have never seen hunger spread so rapidly. In fact, there are large numbers of people that are now facing starvation in the backyard of the United States…"The United Nations is warning that hunger in one of Haiti’s biggest slums is at catastrophic levels, as gang violence and economic crises push the country to “breaking point”. Nearly 20,000 people in the capital’s impoverished Cité Soleil area have dangerously little access to food and could face starvation, the UN says, "Across Haiti, almost five million are struggling with malnutrition. “Haiti is facing a humanitarian catastrophe,” a top UN official said."

But most people in the western world won’t care until they are going hungry themselves. Unfortunately, that day may be a lot closer than a lot of people ever imagined. Right now, a whopping two-thirds of all fertilizer production capacity in Europe has already been shut down because of the skyrocketing price of natural gas…"Europe’s fertilizer crunch is deepening with more than two-thirds of production capacity halted by soaring gas costs, threatening farmers and consumers far beyond the region’s borders. Russia’s squeeze on gas shipments in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is hurting industries across Europe. But fertilizer companies are being especially affected because gas is both a key feedstock and a source of power for the sector."

There simply will not be enough fertilizer for European farmers in 2023. And there won’t be enough for everyone else that depends on fertilizer production from Europe. This is a really big deal, because without fertilizer we would only be able to feed approximately half the planet. Do you want to volunteer to be among those that don’t get enough food?

Meanwhile, the surging U.S. dollar is causing immense headaches for food importers all over the world…"In Ghana, importers are warning about shortages in the run up to Christmas. Thousands of containers loaded with food recently piled up at ports in Pakistan, while private bakers in Egypt raised bread prices after some flour mills ran out of wheat because it was stranded at customs.

Around the world, countries that rely on food imports are grappling with a destructive combination of high interest rates, a soaring dollar and elevated commodity prices, eroding their power to pay for goods that are typically priced in the greenback. Dwindling foreign-currency reserves in many cases has reduced access to dollars, and banks are slow in releasing payments."

The value of the U.S. dollar has been spiking because the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. When the value of the dollar goes up, poor countries have to pay a lot more for food in their own local currencies. So the Federal Reserve is actually making the global food crisis worse by hiking rates. But they are going to keep doing it anyway.

At the same time, global weather patterns continue to go completely haywire. This summer we witnessed the worst drought in Chinese history, Europe endured the worst drought in 500 years, and the western U.S. continued to suffer through the worst multi-year megadrought in at least 1,200 years.

Needless to say, all of this drought is absolutely devastating agricultural production. According to the Washington Post, “more than 80 percent of the U.S. is facing troubling dry conditions” right now. In the middle of the country, this has caused a horrific crisis for barge traffic along the Mississippi River…"The barge industry is quite important. It’s crucial for moving aluminum, petroleum, fertilizer and coal, particularly on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. About 60% of the grain and 54% of the soybeans for U.S. export are moved via the noble barge. Barges touch more than a third of our exported coal as well."'

Right now the barge industry - and all of us who depend on its wares - is mired in a crisis. Water levels on the Mississippi River Basin are at its lowest point in more than a decade. Last week, approximately 2,000 barges were struck at one point. Sadly, very dry conditions are expected “over the next several weeks”, and so things are not likely to get better any time soon…"Low water levels and dredging shuttered barge traffic heading north and south on the Mississippi last week. At one point, more than 100 towboats and 2,000 barges were stuck waiting. The blocked-off section of the river, between Louisiana and Mississippi, reopened Monday. Traffic is limited to one way, according to Petty Officer Jose Hernandez of the U.S. Coast Guard."

That’s certainly better than zero-way traffic, but the Mississippi is still expected to become even more parched. Lisa Parker, a representative of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, told FreightWaves that drier conditions are expected over the next several weeks. The river is slurping up water reserves right now, Parker added, but those reserves will eventually run out.

As a result of this crisis, rates to move goods by barge have gone through the roof, and we could ultimately see massive amounts of agricultural produce rot before it can get to consumers…"Since many barges are stuck and cannot move at all, barge prices are reportedly hyperinflating. As of this writing, the highest USD per ton price shown is $90.44. Prior to the massive spike, it was under $10 to move a ton of goods." The vast majority of the now-stranded bean piles and other farm goods were intended for major export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico. While at least some of them appear to be covered and ventilated, how long will they really last before spoiling?

On another note, we continue to see crabs die off at a staggering rate. In fact, it is now being reported that the winter harvest of snow crab in Alaska has been suspended because the crab population has experienced a catastrophic decline…"Alaska officials have canceled several crab harvests in a conservation effort that sent shock waves through the crabbing industry in the region. Officials canceled the fall Bristol Bay red king crab harvest and, for the first time on record, are also holding off on the winter harvest of snow crab, according to multiple reports.

The decision comes after stark recent population declines of the animals. Data from an NOAA eastern Bering Sea survey shows a 92% decline in overall snow crab abundance from 2018 to 2021, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game confirmed to USA TODAY. An 83% decline occurred from 2018 to 2022, as some small crab entered the population in 2022, according to the department’s Division of Commercial Fisheries."

And thanks to the global bird flu pandemic, birds continue to die in staggering numbers as well. If you can believe it, nearly 100 million chickens and turkeys have already been wiped out during this pandemic in the United States and Europe alone, and experts are warning that this pandemic will only intensify now that cold weather is arriving.

Those of you that have been to the grocery store lately already know that egg prices, chicken prices and turkey prices have surged to absolutely crazy levels. At this point, prices are so high that one recent survey found that one out of every four Americans plans to skip Thanksgiving this year in order to save money…"One in five Americans are unsure if they will be able to cover the costs of Thanksgiving this year, and one in four plan to skip it to save money, a recent Personal Capital survey found."

The state of economic affairs in President Joe Biden’s America is affecting Americans’ holiday plans. According to the survey, one quarter of Americans are planning to skip Thanksgiving this year to save money, and one in five “doubted they would have enough money to cover the costs of Thanksgiving this year.” More specifically, one-third expect their 2022 Thanksgiving dinner to be “smaller,” and 45 percent, overall, said they are “finically stressed” by Thanksgiving.

Yes, things are already that bad. But according to Joe Biden, everything is just fine. In fact, he says that “our economy is strong as hell”…"The comment came during a conversation with a reporter at a Baskin Robbins in Portland, Oregon, who asked the president if he had any worry about the strength of the U.S. dollar amid rising inflation. With a chocolate chip ice cream cone in his hand, Biden answered: “I’m not concerned about the strength of the dollar. I’m concerned about the rest of the world. Our economy is strong as hell.”

You believe him, don’t you? Our leaders would have us believe that all of the problems that we are facing right now are just temporary and that a golden new age of peace and prosperity is just around the corner. But if that is true, why are they so eager to have us eat bugs?

A tremendous amount of time, energy and resources is being put behind a campaign to promote insects as one of the solutions to the rapidly growing global food crisis. But I don’t plan to eat bugs, and I am sure that you don’t either. Unfortunately, there isn’t going to be nearly enough food for everyone on the planet in 2023, and millions upon millions of deeply suffering individuals will soon be desperately hungry.

They can push bug eating all they want, but that isn’t going to fix our problems. Right now, they have absolutely no solutions that will prevent large numbers of people from starving to death during the difficult years that are in front of us.

🇳🇱 WEF agenda in full force: Hundreds of schools in The Netherlands have started a campaign introducing 10-12 y/o kids to mealworms & insects as a ‘sustainable’ meat substitute. The goal is to bring about “behavioral changes through unprejudiced children”
— Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) October 15, 2022

"Loaning Money To Family And Friends, You Will Own Nothing; Global Collapse"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/18/22:
"Loaning Money To Family And Friends, 
You Will Own Nothing; Global Collapse"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Prepare Yourselves Now! Central Banks Are Deliberately Breaking The Global Economy"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/18/22:
"Prepare Yourselves Now! Central Banks Are
 Deliberately Breaking The Global Economy"
Comments here:
Related:

"A Look to the Heavens"

“What makes this spiral galaxy so long? Measuring over 700,000 light years across from top to bottom, NGC 6872, also known as the Condor galaxy, is one of the most elongated barred spiral galaxies known. 
The galaxy's protracted shape likely results from its continuing collision with the smaller galaxy IC 4970, visible just above center. Of particular interest is NGC 6872's spiral arm on the upper left, as pictured here, which exhibits an unusually high amount of blue star forming regions. The light we see today left these colliding giants before the days of the dinosaurs, about 300 million years ago. NGC 6872 is visible with a small telescope toward the constellation of the Peacock (Pavo).”

Chet Raymo, "Exile "

"Exile"
by Chet Raymo

 "Are we truly alone
With our physics and myths,
The stars no more
Than glittering dust,
With no one there
To hear our choral odes?"

"This is the ultimate question, the only question, asked here by the Northern Irish poet Derek Mahon. It is a poem of exile, from the ancient familiar, from the sustaining myth of rootedness, of centrality. A poem that the naturalist can relate to, we pilgrims of infinite spaces, of the overarching blank pages on which we write our own stories, our own scriptures, having none of divine pedigree.

Yes, we feel the ache of exile, we who grew up with the sustaining myths of immortality only to see them stripped away by the needy hands of fact. We scribble our choral odes. Who listens? We speak to each other. Is that enough? Having left the home we grew up in, we make do with where we find ourselves, gathering to ourselves the glittering dust of the here and now. Are we truly alone? Mahon again:
 "If so, we can start
To ignore the silence
Of infinite space
And concentrate instead
on the infinity
Under our very noses -
The cry at the heart
Of the artichoke,
The gaiety of atoms."

Better to leave the blank page blank than fill it with sentimental hankerings for home, with those prayers of our childhood we repeated over and over until they became a hard, fast crust on the page. Incline our ear instead to the faint cry that issues from the world under our very noses, from there, the tomato plant on the window sill, the ink-dark crow that paces the grass beyond the panes, the clouds that heap on the horizon - the dizzy, ditzy dance of atoms and the glitterings of stars."
"I like the stars. It's the illusion of permanence, I think. I mean, they're always flaring up and caving in and going out. But from here I can pretend... I can pretend that things last. I can pretend that lives last longer than moments. Gods come and Gods go. Mortals flicker and flash and fade. Worlds don't last; and stars and galaxies are transient, fleeting things that twinkle like fireflies and vanish into cold and dust. But I can pretend...
- Olethros, in "Sandman"

The Poet: Anne Sexton, "Courage"

"Courage"

"It is in the small things we see it.
The child's first step,
as awesome as an earthquake.
The first time you rode a bike,
wallowing up the sidewalk.
The first spanking when your heart
went on a journey all alone.
When they called you crybaby
or poor or fatty or crazy
and made you into an alien,
you drank their acid
and concealed it.

Later,
if you faced the death of bombs and bullets
you did not do it with a banner,
you did it with only a hat to
cover your heart.
You did not fondle the weakness inside you
though it was there.
Your courage was a small coal
that you kept swallowing.
If your buddy saved you
and died himself in so doing,
then his courage was not courage,
it was love; love as simple as shaving soap.

Later,
if you have endured a great despair,
then you did it alone,
getting a transfusion from the fire,
picking the scabs off your heart,
then wringing it out like a sock.
Next, my kinsman, you powdered your sorrow,
you gave it a back rub
and then you covered it with a blanket
and after it had slept a while
it woke to the wings of the roses
and was transformed.

Later,
when you face old age and its natural conclusion
your courage will still be shown in the little ways,
each spring will be a sword you'll sharpen,
those you love will live in a fever of love,
and you'll bargain with the calendar
and at the last moment
when death opens the back door
you'll put on your carpet slippers
and stride out."

~ Anne Sexton

"We Do Choose..."

"All men and women are born, live suffer and die; what distinguishes us one from another is our dreams, whether they be dreams about worldly or unworldly things, and what we do to make them come about... We do not choose to be born. We do not choose our parents. We do not choose our historical epoch, the country of our birth, or the immediate circumstances of our upbringing. We do not, most of us, choose to die; nor do we choose the time and conditions of our death. But within this realm of choicelessness, we do choose how we live."
- Joseph Epstein
"George Harrison knew something most of us didn't and still don't: there is a reality beyond the material world and what we do here and how we treat others affects us eternally. As he sings in "Rising Sun":
"But in the rising sun you can feel your life begin,
Universe at play inside your DNA.
You're a billion years old today.
Oh the rising sun and the place it's coming from
Is inside of you and now your payment's overdue."
Lyrics here:
"Death twitches my ear. 'Live," he says, 'I am coming.'"
~Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro)

The Poet: David Whyte, "Sweet Darkness"

"Sweet Darkness"

"When your eyes are tired the world is tired also.
When your vision has gone no part of the world can find you.
Time to go into the dark where the night has eyes
to recognize its own.
There you can be sure you are not beyond love.
The dark will be your womb tonight.
The night will give you a horizon further than you can see.

You must learn one thing: the world was made to be free in.
Give up all the other worlds except the one to which you belong.
Sometimes it takes darkness and the sweet confinement of your aloneness
to learn anything or anyone that does not bring you alive is too small for you."

- David Whyte,
"House of Belonging"

"War..."

“When people speak to you about a preventive war, 
you tell them to go and fight it.”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Humanity is the spirit of the Supreme Being on earth, and that humanity is standing amidst ruins, hiding its nakedness behind tattered rags, shedding tears upon hollow cheeks, and calling for its children with pitiful voice. But the children are busy singing their clan's anthem; they are busy sharpening the swords and cannot hear the cry of their mothers."
- Kahlil Gibran
U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsman HM1 Richard Barnett, assigned to the 1st Marine Division, holds an Iraqi child in central Iraq in this March 29, 2003 file photo. Confused front line crossfire ripped apart an Iraqi family after local soldiers appeared to force civilians towards positions held by U.S. Marines.

The Daily "Near You?"

Paris, Ile-de-France, France. Thanks for stopping by!

"Intense Cognitive Workout, Enter a Highly Focused Mental State - Isochronic Tones"

Full screen recommended.
Headphones are NOT REQUIRED for this video/track.
Jason Lewis - Mind Amend,
"Intense Cognitive Workout, 
Enter a Highly Focused Mental State - Isochronic Tones"

"This an extended version of my "Peak Focus For Complex Tasks" session. Listen to this when you need a strong burst of intense focus to concentrate and study things like advanced mathematics, scientific formulas, financial analysis or any other complex mental activity. Listen to this track with your eyes open while doing the task/activity you want to focus on.

This is a high-intensity audio brainwave entrainment session, using isochronic tones. Use this video to increase focus and concentration while studying, working and doing any mentally taxing activity. Listen to this track with your eyes open while doing the task/activity you want to focus on. Although headphones are not required you may find they produce a more intense effect, because they help to block out distracting external sounds.

Isochronic tones are a fast and effective audio-based way to stimulate your brain. Among many of the benefits, they can help improve focus, relaxation, energy levels, sleep and more, without taking drugs or needing any special equipment. What isochronic tones essentially do is guide your dominant brainwave activity to a different frequency while you are listening to them, allowing you to influence and change your mental state and how you feel."
I strongly suggest you read Comments here:
"Isochronic Tones –
How They Work, the Benefits and the Research"
This is a brainwave entrainment audio session using isochronic tones combined with music. The isochronic tones are the repetitive beats you can hear on top of the music throughout the track. If you are new to this type of audio brainwave entrainment, find out how isochronic tones work and how they compare to binaural beats here: 
Listen folks, we're out of time! Whether you want to know it or not we're literally in the fight of our lives, for our lives right now, and it's going to get much, much worse. Some of you reading this will not survive, and I may not either, so I'll take any edge I can get, and you should too... This works for me. Prepare yourself, brace for impact...
- CP

"Here Comes The Sun"

"Here Comes The Sun"
What stored-up solar and the great fossil 
fuel revolution brought to mankind.
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

From on the road, Virginia - "Yesterday, we set out early. An autumn mist still lay on the fields. The sun barely made an impression. We were headed south, driving from our farm near Annapolis, down the spine of Anne Arundel and Calvert counties, and then over the Patuxent River through Charles County to the Potomac River bridge to Virginia.

Maryland was the ‘most English’ of the American colonies. Almost all the first settlers came up from English outposts in Virginia. But in the middle of the 1700s a new group came into the port of Baltimore. They were people with very different religious views from those of the Anglican settlers. They were ‘Anabaptists’ from Germany and Switzerland. Called Mennonites or Amish, they thought the technology of the 17th century was as good as it should get.

The first Amish immigrants put down roots in nearby Pennsylvania. Later some arrived in Charles county Maryland, where they remain. We have a sister who married into an Amish family that had left the community. And we go down there occasionally to buy lumber or fenceposts from the Amish sawmills. So, we know the culture fairly well.

The Amish of Charles county eschew modern technology, but they are selective about it. They’ve adapted to… and profited from… the modern, energy-driven economy around them. When we had an Amish crew put in a fence, for example, they came in a new Ford truck. The truck’s owner and driver was not Amish; they paid him to bring them back and forth to the jobsite. Nor did they dig the post-holes by hand; they used our tractor. They ride in horse-drawn carriages. But they power their sawmills with large engines – either electric or diesel. And while they rely mostly on their own farm output for food, they buy from farmers’ markets too – where most of the produce comes from modern farming methods.

Could you go back in time and really live without modern machines and conveniences? Occasionally, we benefit from accidental or unintentional tests. Such a test was conducted by a Russian family, over a 40 year period.

Tough Choices: It began in 1936. The family were part of a Russian Christian group called the “old believers,” much like the Amish in America. They stuck to their old ways… and their old religion. But in the Soviet Union at that time there was no room for religion… or religious minorities… or for anyone who wouldn’t go along with the great new communist crusade. Karp Lykov saw his brother shot dead by the government’s enforcers and decided to take his family into the Siberian wilderness to escape.

They took with them some seeds, some clothes and some tools, and not much else. The family of 4 – the two parents and two young children – built makeshift shelters and moved further and further away from civilization to make sure they were safe. Eventually, they came to settle in a mountain location, 150 miles from the nearest town, with no roads, no electricity, no machinery… and importantly, no fossil fuels.

They could till the ground… and plant their vegetables and rye. They could cut down trees and heat their hovel with wood. They could hunt animals occasionally, running them to ground or catching them in traps; they had no guns, not even a bow and arrow.

Two more children were born. And thus did the family live for four decades, until they were rediscovered by Soviet geologists exploring the area, looking for fossil fuels and minerals. How did they make out? They had fresh air. Sunshine. A stream of cold, clear water next to their shack. What more could they want?

Well, food. They lived for many years on the edge of starvation. And when a late frost in 1961 destroyed their garden, Karp’s wife confronted a grim choice. But it was a choice that women had confronted many, many times in history. There was not enough for the whole family to eat. She could eat. Or her children could eat. She chose to let the children eat. She starved to death.

A few years after they were rediscovered by Soviet authorities, three of the children died too. Two died of kidney failure – perhaps from the limited and very poor diet. The other, Dmitry, died from pneumonia. Dmitry grew up in the wilderness, with no fossil fuels to warm his house, power his car, provide him with food or entertain him with Netflix or Facebook.

He became a hunter. And he became incredibly hardy. He could chase an antelope for days, barefoot in the wintertime… and sleep out in the cold. He had spent his whole life in conditions that most people today couldn’t survive for 48 hours. But he had also been far from the colds and bacteria that most of us face everyday. When the geologists came… they brought sickness too. Dmitry had no resistance.

Stored-up Solar: Life without fossil fuels was pretty grim, though not impossible. But the test was imperfect. The family lived in conditions that were far from ‘normal’ and perhaps harsher than those we would face if we were suddenly forced to give up fossil fuels. A resourceful family – properly equipped with tools and technology made possible by the modern carbon-based economy – could probably live well in the wilderness.

But most people live in cities and suburbs, where they rely 100% on an extensive economy – powered by fossil fuel. How would they fare if electricity were suddenly cut off? What would they eat if food deliveries were interrupted? What would happen if the ATMs went dark… the gasoline pumps went dry… and grocery store shelves were bare?

Without a doubt, the single thing that gave man the upper hand against nature was nature herself. She had stored up millions of years’ worth of solar energy. And there it was – mountains of coal… and underground lakes of oil and gas.

Plants rely on the sun. Animals rely on plants. And over the millennia, this carbon-based energy was laid down and piled up, compressed… and turned into high density fuel. Trains used to run on wood-fired engines. But it took carloads of firewood and a couple of full-time stokers to chuck logs into the firebox. Diesel fuel took up much less space, and it dripped into the engine by itself.

In the 19th century, using these ‘fossil fuels’ became widespread. They were used to heat, of course, but also to move things around, hammer them, and shape them. Beginning with James Watt’s steam engine of 1776, inventors and tinkerers found ways to convert the heat energy into mechanical energy – to turn gears, wheels, belts, chains, drive shafts, and assembly lines.

The energy contained in these ‘fossil fuels’ is stunning. You can test it yourself. Just put a single gallon of gasoline into your car… at a cost of less than $5. Then, drive the car as far as it will go. Now push the car back home. It will take you and your friends many hours of hard work to do it. You can also get a hint of the relative efficiency of fossil fuel from the experiment. A gallon of gasoline will take you and your car about 25 miles, in less than half an hour. Even if you ditch the car, you will only be able to travel at about 4 miles per hour on foot. So it will take you 12 times as much time to travel the same distance. And if your time is worth $25 an hour… it will cost you 30 times as much.

And now imagine that the power in these fuels is put to use across the entire economy. Farmers, with a team of oxen, used to be able to plow an acre of ground in a day. Now, the latest tractors can plow 150 acres in a day – with A/C in the cab and self-steering technology. Trucks move thousands of tons of merchandise… coast to coast. Airplane pilots take hundreds of passengers across the Atlantic in a single day.

Time is the ultimate limit on what we can do. There are only 24 hours in a day. What we can produce in those hours determines how well we live and how many people the earth can support. Using the tractor as a measure, we increased productivity 150 times. Similar gains were made across the whole economy.

Let There Be Food: At the beginning of the industrial revolution – which might be more properly called the “fossil fuel revolution” – there were 2 billion people on our planet. Now, there are 4 times as many. Those extra 6 billion people are only alive because of the energy in fossil fuels. Even today, after 20 years of supporting and subsidizing ‘clean’ or ‘sustainable’ alternative energy sources, only about 15% of the world’s power comes from non- fossil sources. That means that the equivalent of 6.8 billion people depend 100% on fossil fuel – for their transportation, for their electricity, and for their food. Take it away, in whole or in part, and what would happen?

And how about you? When you get up in the morning, do you drink coffee? How did the coffee beans get to your house? And milk; how was it kept refrigerated? And the house itself, how is it cooled… or heated? And when you go to work… do you drive an automobile? What makes the wheels turn? Most likely, it is a series of explosions in an engine, moving pistons up and down, whose energy is transformed by a crankshaft into locomotion. Even if you drive an electric vehicle, odds are that electricity comes from fossil fuels… and the vehicle itself couldn’t be produced without energy from coal, gas, or oil.

Grain production quadrupled since 1950. How was that possible? With diesel engines, farmers were able to cultivate more acres, more efficiently. Maybe even more important, they used a lot more fertilizer – especially nitrogen. Between 1950 and 2025, the quantity of nitrogen fertilizer increased 23 times.

Where does nitrogen fertilizer come from? From natural gas. And to get the nitrogen fertilizer into the ground – to make it, to ship it, to apply it – takes almost twice as much energy as in the fertilizer itself.

Food – like many of the other things we use every day – is a product, primarily, of energy. It was only because we were able to figure out how to use this stored-up solar energy that there are so many of us living so well on Planet Earth.

But what if fossil fuels were off-limits? They say that we are just 9 meals away from anarchy. What kind of chaos, confusion and misery would come to your neighborhood if hungry mobs roamed the streets, looting houses and taking whatever they wanted? What if you had to choose, between feeding yourself or feeding your children? Outrageous? Impossible? Something that would never happen? We can hope so."

Joel’s Note: "Alas, we’re already witnessing the results of another disastrous energy experiment unfold across the European continent... one which will almost certainly have knock-on effects across the Atlantic.

Summoning the spirt of the dearly departed Karp Lykov and his family, advanced, industrialized nations across Europe decided early on in the 21st century that fossil fuels were not for them. Instead of cheap, reliable, readily available oil and gas, stored up under the earth’s surface, they opted instead for intermittent, unreliable wind and solar, hardly sufficient to power their economies and which bring enormous environmental hazards of their own. What gas they would use would come mostly from Russia, their on-again, off-again enemy for most of the 20th century.

Gee… what could go wrong? A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit, reliably late on the scene, predicts… “Gas rationing in winter 2022/23, coupled with a further spike in electricity prices, will cause an economic recession across the region; we expect an economic contraction in the eurozone in 2023, with annual recessions in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and elsewhere. The UK will also enter recession".

And that, from the outfit that produced this magazine cover waaay back in… June 25, 2022!
That’s right. Even as global energy markets enter “chaos mode,” and advanced economies are forced to ration their gas, dim their lights and shutter essential industry, the establishment mouthpiece was doubling down on its demonization of fossil fuels. From their June leader, The Power Struggle: "If governments respond ineptly, they could trigger a relapse towards fossil fuels that makes it even harder to stabilize the climate. Instead they must follow a perilous path that combines security of energy supply with climate security."

As to the aforementioned “chaos mode,” the continent is facing very real and imminent energy insecurity in critical diesel markets, where consumers face enormous “buy it now” premiums for scare supplies. Here’s Bloomberg: "Powering trucks, trains and ships that drive industry, the fuel is commanding huge buy-it-now premiums in Europe. Beset by worker strikes over pay at French oil refineries that lasted over three weeks, the continent is struggling to be ready for a ban on imports from key supplier Russia that’s 3 1/2 months away. The US has the lowest seasonal inventories in data that began in 1982 going into winter."

The chaos is the last thing Europe needs alongside sky-high energy prices, but there could be worse to come. Officials in the Biden administration have pressed fuel producers to curtail overseas exports and chastised them for low diesel stockpiles. “It’s extremely tight, end user stocks are extraordinarily low,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “I don’t know where resupply comes from. Diesel is the industrial product of the world, so it’s not going to help an already weakened economic environment.”

Meanwhile, back in the U.S. of A., the Biden Administration continues to drain the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve ahead of midterm elections, with plans to release another 15 million barrels this week. Already at a 40yr low, the nation’s oil piggy bank is fast running dry. But fear not… diplomatic bumbling has ensured that Saudi and Russia are cozying up nicely after OPEC+ announced they’d strip up to 2 million bpd from global supply, further putting upward pressure on prices and ensuring that Russian exports (for those who are happily drinking it up… we’re looking at you, China and India) keep Putin’s coffers full.

Way to go, team!"

"We're All Mad Here..."

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the cat. 
"We're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the cat, "Or you wouldn't have come here."
- Lewis Carroll,
"Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"
Oh, I know, I know, some days...lol
"We work in the dark. We do what we can to battle the evil that would otherwise destroy us. But if a man's character is his fate, this fight is not a choice but a calling. Yet sometimes the weight of this burden causes us to falter, breaching the frazzled fortress of our mind, allowing the monsters without to turn within. We are left alone staring into the abyss; into the laughing face of madness."
- "Fox Mulder", "The X-Files"
Strange days indeed...
John Lennon, "Nobody Told Me"

"Shopping At Meijer! We Make A Chicken Pot Pie Bake!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/18/22:
"Shopping At Meijer! 
We Make A Chicken Pot Pie Bake!"
"In today's vlog we are grocery shopping at Meijer, and noticing another spike in prices. As we search for some cheaper prices we gather up the ingredients to make A Chicken Pot Pie Bake! We break down everything on how to make this glorious dinner."
Comments here:

"100% Chance of a Recession - Get Ready"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/18/22:
"100% Chance of a Recession - Get Ready"
"The experts have stepped forward and say that there is a 100% chance of a recession in the coming year. Manufacturing is down and Inflation is up. Get Ready."
Comments here:
Truthful reader comment:
JP R: "We’re already in a recession. What we’re headed for is a depression and if that escalates then potentially a great civil conflict which would result in schisms amongst the states and sectarian violence." Dan, of course, is well aware if this...

Gregory Mannarino, "Stock Market Alert: Is The Bottom In? Don't Count On It, and Here's Why"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/18/22:
"Stock Market Alert: Is The Bottom In? 
Don't Count On It, and Here's Why"
Comments here:
"How many times do you have to be hit over the
head until you figure out who's hitting you?" 
- Harry S. Truman

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/18/22"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/18/22"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Latest Market Analysis, Updated 10/18/22
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...

"How It Really Is"

 

Monday, October 17, 2022

"Doug Casey On The Likelihood Of Nuclear War With Russia"

"Doug Casey On The Likelihood Of Nuclear War With Russia"
by International Man

"International Man: Recently, we’ve seen what appears to be an escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There is an excellent chance the US government was behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, Russia has annexed four regions of Ukraine, and President Zelensky announced an accelerated bid to join NATO. What do you make of this?

Doug Casey: I’d say that the odds are extremely high, approaching certainty, that the US was complicit in the sabotage. It certainly had the Motive, Means, and Opportunity - the three elements necessary to warrant suspicion in a criminal investigation. The US has unique capabilities for this kind of mischief - an air-launched drone torpedo or a submarine aren’t available to just any terror group. It was a major operation, not something that a few scuba divers could pull off. Apparently, tons of explosives were used to blow these things up.

Biden and other US officials previously said they didn’t want the Nord Stream to go through and planned to prevent it. A boldly idiotic thing to say since the pipeline is neither its property or business. The narrative that the Russians did it is completely insane. Putin could simply turn off the gas until it was convenient to be turned back on; now that option is gone. The Russians wouldn’t limit their own options.

If it’s proven that the US did it, then the Russians and/or the Germans will have to engage in a tit-for-tat retaliation to punish the US for this sabotage. That may be tantamount to an act of war, but once the culprit is proven, they have to take action. This thing isn’t over. The culprit will be found.

As far as Russia annexing Crimea and the regions of the Ukraine in question, it seems to me - from a historical point of view - that would be par for the course. Remember that borders have been flowing and ethnic groups moving for a thousand years in that part of the world. In any event, it makes no sense to take sides in disputes between nation-states. In this case, it amounts to the US sticking its nose into a border war between two sh*t-hole countries.

That said, being as objective as possible, I’d say that the Russians have a certain amount of right on their side. They’ve been mightily provoked since the Maidan Revolution of 2014 and the attack by the Ukrainian Army on the Donbas. It’s too bad that this is spinning out of control - largely because of US intervention. In a rational world, it would basically be worth a couple of columns on the sixth page of the New York Times and then forgotten.

As for Zelensky accelerating the bid to join NATO, it’s insanely stupid. Zelensky is a corrupt nothing/nobody puppet who’s being manufactured into a hero. The strutting little megalomaniac has apparently been paid at least half a billion dollars to be an authoritarian, jailing opposition leaders, closing down dissident newspapers, and building a secret police force. Ukraine joining NATO at this point would be asking for World War 3. Of course, NATO should have been abolished after the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1991. But now it’s become an institution, almost impossible to get rid of. The chances of a war between NATO and Russia are extremely high. Instead of talking about getting rid of Putin, the world would be better off if they got rid of Zelensky.

International Man: Vladimir Putin recently gave a speech in which he said: “The West is ready to cross every line to preserve the neo-colonial system which allows it to live off the world, to plunder it thanks to the domination of the dollar and technology, to collect an actual tribute from humanity, to extract its primary source of unearned prosperity, the rent paid to the hegemon. The preservation of this annuity is their main, real and absolutely self-serving motivation. This is why total de-sovereignization is in their interest. This explains their aggression towards independent states, traditional values and authentic cultures, their attempts to undermine international and integration processes, new global currencies and technological development centers they cannot control. It is critically important for them to force all countries to surrender their sovereignty to the United States.” What’s your take on this?

Doug Casey: I’ve listened to a number of Putin’s speeches. It’s fashionable to make him out as being not only the devil incarnate but irrational and somebody that wants to conquer Europe and perhaps destroy the world in the process. But in fact, compared to all of the other European leaders, he’s the most cool-headed, the most thoughtful, and the one with the most perspective.

He is absolutely right when he says that the West is acting as a hegemon. In particular, the US has been exporting dollars for decades - which have allowed it to live way above its means -and control the world by controlling the world’s monetary system. With the dollar accepted as the international reserve currency, backed up by institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, and a giant military with bases in over 100 countries, the US can basically call the shots for other cultures and countries.

Let me explain. I like American culture. Despite the fact the US is rapidly devolving into a police state, it’s still by far the most individualistic, liberty-oriented, and freewheeling culture the world has ever seen. But at the same time, I understand his resentment. The world is covered with McDonald’s and Pizza Huts, Hollywood movies, Coca-Cola, mass consumer advertising, and a thousand other trends, ideas, and artifacts generated in the US. Call them “good” or “bad,” but they have absolutely acted to destroy local cultures. T-shirts, blue jeans, and rock music assault your eyes and ears everywhere, from the biggest cities to the upper reaches of the Amazon and the Congo.

I think they’re mostly good things in themselves. But it’s easy to see how a traditionalist, someone who values cultural stability and diversity, could view them as aggressive threats, as cultural imperialism. In fact, we’ve destroyed the local culture everywhere. I understand his unhappiness with aspects of this.

Vlad makes some valid points. I know you’re not supposed to say that since he’s been designated the new enemy, in the mold of Saddam, Qadhafi, Assad, Noriega, and a dozen others in recent history. Unfortunately, though, Americans’ opinions are products of what they’re fed by the media, not actual facts. If they were well-informed and thought about it, they’d realize their real enemies weren’t foreign nonentities but the Bidens, Bushes, Obamas, and the US Deep State in general.

International Man: It seems tensions with Russia are reaching a crescendo. What do you think is the likelihood of the US or NATO becoming directly involved in combat?

Doug Casey: As I said, there’s no reason for any conflict between Russia and the US. In fact, there are now fewer communists in Russia than there are in US universities. Russia under Putin has tried to reach a rapprochement with Western Europe and the US numerous times, and they’ve been rejected. It makes me think that our leaders are more psychopathic than Russia’s.

Will the US become directly involved in combat? I don’t think so. The US has already pissed away $60 billion, or who knows how much, supporting the terminally corrupt Zelensky regime. More and more Americans are coming to the conclusion that it’s against our interests. I doubt there’s any support to send American soldiers over there, and it greatly increases the chances of nuclear blasts leveling most US cities. Direct involvement seems unlikely at this point, even though we’re dealing with sociopaths and, worse, who control the world’s major governments. So don’t accuse me of being a permabear… I’m an optimist.

International Man: There is a lot of talk in the mainstream media about whether Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. David Petraeus and other Deep Staters have suggested the US and NATO would directly attack Russian forces in Ukraine as a response. Could the media and Deep State be laying the groundwork for some sort of incident, staged or otherwise? What are the implications of people like Petraeus openly talking about directly attacking Russian forces?

Doug Casey: Again, once people reach a high level in any government, it’s proof - ipso facto -that they’re sociopaths. Many are narcissistic and power-hungry psychopaths. You don’t get the “best and brightest” walking the halls of Mordor or the Deathstar. That certainly includes generals or ex-generals like Petraeus. In today’s world, once a soldier reaches a general’s rank, he’s a self-promoting bureaucrat first and foremost.

I’ll draw your attention to the movie "Dr. Strangelove." Once someone gets enough stars on their shoulders, they start thinking like George C. Scott’s General Buck E. Turgidson or Sterling Hayden’s Jack D. Ripper in "Dr. Strangelove." It’s actually a type of psychosis that overtakes people once they have too much power. Anything’s possible with these people.

I don’t support either Washington or Moscow. At the moment - let me shock some readers -Washington is much more dangerous than Moscow, with the current administration totally controlled by Jacobins and other strident ideologues. Americans should be terrified that one of their politicians could push the wrong button and destroy the world, whether with nuclear, cyber, or biological weapons.

International Man: Is there such a thing as a limited nuclear war between the US and Russia? If not, what does full-scale nuclear war look like, and what is the likelihood of it happening? Is it worth risking this outcome over a country that most Americans cannot even find on a map?

Doug Casey: As you know, my belief is that a government - if you’re going to have government at all - should have nothing but police to protect citizens from violence within a country, a court system to allow them to adjudicate disputes without resorting to force, and a strictly defensive military, kept within our borders. Our current government, however, has a life of its own, detached from the country it rules. Seeing the kind of people that we have in Washington, with actual Jacobins in charge, it’s understandable how the Russians could be paranoid of the US military machine and the US government.

Could we have limited nuclear war? It’s possible. Perhaps the Russians will, if pushed up against the wall and invaded, set off a couple of small tactical nukes just as a warning to show they’re serious. But if it goes to a global thermonuclear war, it’s going to set civilization back hundreds of years.

The people that are in back of fomenting and promoting the Ukraine war should be hauled out of office and tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity. These fools are toying with what could soon be the biggest disaster in world history."

"Electricity Prices Are Skyrocketing As Fears Of A Deep Winter Rising"

Full screen recommended.
"Electricity Prices Are Skyrocketing 
As Fears Of A Deep Winter Rising"
by Epic Economist

"You’re about to get shocked by this winter’s electricity prices. If you already felt the pinch of soaring energy costs during the summer, get ready, and grab your winter coats, because turning up the heat in the coming months is going to be your next financial pain. Electric grid operators are warning about the highest price spikes since 2006 – even after the longest streak of energy bill increases in decades. Domestic reserves of energy supplies are hitting rock bottom, and everyone in the industry seems extremely anxious about this as temperatures start to drop and demand starts to rise. This also means that U.S. households are vulnerable to experiencing blackouts and shortages at a time they need a reliable source of power the most. The rising costs have been so unbearable for some families that more and more people are getting desperate about the worsening situation, and in some parts of the nation, cases of energy theft are already on the rise. Unfortunately, it’s undeniably clear now that the energy crisis that has been impacting numerous countries across the world over the past year has finally descended upon America, and its repercussions are going to be devastating for all of us.

With inflation running at 8.2% year-over-year, the jump in energy prices for both businesses and homes was more than double the official inflation rate. Yahoo Finances reports that during the first two quarters of the year, Americans were already spending 21% on energy compared to a year prior. The latest data shows another shock. In September, nat gas bills jumped 33%. While these bills are often confusing and filled with a barrage of surcharges and taxes, such as gas recovery and distribution charges as well as taxes, the dramatic increase in electricity bills has been hard for consumers to miss.

The outlook for the next couple of months is quite disturbing, too. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) estimates the average family will pay more than $1,300 to heat their home this winter, a very notable sum considering that nearly 40% of families are already feeling financially strapped, according to a new NPR poll. Needless to say, the months ahead are going to further stretch the budgets of millions of U.S. households who are already being economically destroyed by the recession that’s unfolding before our very eyes.

Earlier this month, prices of natural gas, which account for 40% of the nation’s power generation, were trading about 94% higher than at the start of the year and 370% higher than the 2020 lows. As a result, power generation units at utilities will be even more expensive to operate, and operators will be forced to pass along costs to end users, something that’s worrying everyone in the industry."The rise in home energy costs this winter will put millions of lower-income families at risk of falling behind on their energy bills and having no choice but to make difficult decisions between paying for food, medicine, and rent," said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA.

A winter of discontent and financial chaos is coming for us. The truth is that the greatest energy crisis of our lifetime will continue to accelerate and set the stage for the kind of historic meltdown of catastrophic proportions we’ve been warned about all along. There is no light at the end of the tunnel right now, and it’s safe to say that our leaders are just now realizing the proportions of the mess they’ve caused."

"You Will Be Challenged, Prepare Now; Banks Are Robbing You Every Day; Consumer Has Collapsed"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/17/22:
"You Will Be Challenged, Prepare Now; 
Banks Are Robbing You Every Day; Consumer Has Collapsed"
Comments here: