Wednesday, August 7, 2024

"Donald Trump Says That A Great Depression Is Coming. He Is Right"

"Donald Trump Says That A Great Depression Is Coming.
He Is Right"
by Michael Snyder

"Do you believe Donald Trump? He is entirely convinced that if we stay on the path that we are currently on we are heading into a “great depression”, and many believe that he is right on target. Unemployment is rising, manufacturing activity is contracting, bankruptcies are soaring, home sales have fallen to depressingly low levels, the cost of living crisis never seems to end, poverty is soaring and homelessness is at the highest level ever recorded. Since Barack Obama first entered the White House, our politicians in Washington have been propping up the economy by adding 25 trillion dollars to the national debt. Now our national debt has crossed the 35 trillion dollar mark, and our politicians continue to spend money at a pace that is absolutely absurd. But despite this tremendous influx of borrowed cash, the wheels are starting to come off the U.S. economy anyway.

This week, everyone is talking about a “recession” because of what has been happening in the financial markets. Prior to Tuesday’s session, more than 6 trillion dollars in global stock market wealth had already been wiped out… Bloomberg estimates that approximately $6.4 trillion has been erased from the value of global stock markets over the past three weeks. Investors were desperately hoping for a bounce on Tuesday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average only jumped 294 points. Needless to say, that is not the bounce that they were looking for.

The turmoil that we have witnessed on Wall Street in recent days also caught the attention of Donald Trump. On Truth Social, he blamed crashing stock prices on Kamala Harris and he warned that a “great depression” is on the way…"Trump took to Truth Social to blast Harris for the “Kamala Crash” in a series of posts. “Of course there is a massive market downturn. Kamala is even worse than Crooked Joe. Markets will NEVER accept the Radical Left Lunatic that destroyed San Francisco and California, as a whole,” Trump wrote. “Next move, THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2024! You can’t play games with MARKETS. KAMALA CRASH!” he added."

Of course Trump is in the middle of trying to win an election, and his goal was to make Kamala Harris look bad. But he is quite right that if we stay on the road that we are on it will only end in disaster.

Last Friday, the Sahm rule was triggered when the unemployment rate went up again…"The Sahm rule, created by the former Federal Reserve official Claudia Sahm, triggers when the unemployment rate’s three-month moving average moves 50 basis points above its 12-month low. That rule was triggered Friday, with the moving average rising 53 basis points above that one-year trough, according to the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The Sahm rule has successfully predicted every single recession since 1970, and it is indicating that another recession is here."

Sadly, the unemployment rate is likely to go even higher during the months ahead because large companies all over America continue to conduct mass layoffs. Today, we learned that Dell is planning another round of mass layoffs…"While Dell has confirmed the layoffs, it hasn’t revealed how many employees are losing their jobs. SiliconAngle reports that roughly 12,500 Dell employees are being laid off this week, citing an unnamed source. Impacted employees are primarily on Dell’s sales and marketing teams. A layoff tracker has since reported the same number. Former Dell employee Ian Armstrong, who previously worked on the company’s UX design team for eight years, called the layoffs a “bloodbath” in a post, reporting that Dell has now laid off 24,500 staff in the past 15 months."

Meanwhile, the cost of living crisis continues to crush working families all over the nation. At this point, it takes an additional thousand dollars a month for the typical U.S. household to buy the exact same goods and services that it did three years ago…"The typical U.S. household needed to pay $227 more a month in March to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to calculations from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi shared with FOX Business. Americans are paying on average $784 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,069 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began."

Consumer spending has always been so critical to the U.S. economy. And at this point, a very large portion of the population is simply tapped out. That is one of the primary reasons why credit card debt is at an all-time high and credit card delinquencies are soaring into the stratosphere…"Credit card delinquencies continued to rise from their pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter. As of June, about 9.1% of outstanding credit card debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 8.5% the previous quarter.

The rise in credit card usage and debt is particularly concerning because interest rates are astronomically high right now. The average credit card annual percentage rate (APR) hit a new record of 20.73% last week, according to a Bankrate database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991."

Of course it isn’t just millions of consumers that have reached a breaking point. As I discussed a few days ago, we are witnessing a very alarming surge in business bankruptcies…"Over the past year, business bankruptcy filings are up 40.3 percent, and have now reached a number not seen since the second quarter of 2020, at the peak of lockdowns. American households are following along, with total bankruptcy filings up 16.2 percent in the past year, including 132,710 new filings in the second quarter of 2024 alone."

A 40 percent increase in one year is quite serious. And every day even more businesses are going belly up. Here is one of the latest examples…"A popular Italian restaurant chain has filed for bankruptcy – just days after it abruptly shut 13 underperforming locations across the US. Court documents filed just before midnight on Sunday show Buca di Beppo owes as much as $50million – yet has assets of under $50,000. Last week, the chain – known for its family-style dishes and vintage décor – permanently closed restaurants in California and Florida. It also shut its last remaining locations in Michigan and Pennsylvania."

It is a horror show out there. According to the Sahm rule, a new recession is now upon us. But if Donald Trump is correct, something even worse is looming. Unfortunately, most people just don’t get it. If people really understood what is on the horizon, they would be behaving very differently. Most of the population is still convinced that things will turn out just fine somehow, and for the moment ignorance is bliss."

"GPS Is Blocked! Iran-Israel War Could Break Out In Next 48 Hours"

Larry C. Johnson, 8/7/24
"GPS Is Blocked! Iran-Israel War 
Could Break Out In Next 48 Hours"
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"Israel's Mask Is Slipping"

Chris Hedges, 8/7/24
"Israel's Mask Is Slipping"

"David Hearst, Editor-in-Chief of Middle East Eye, and I discuss Israel, Gaza and what the genocide means for the future of Israel. The latest chapter of Israel's occupation of Palestine has raged on for nearly the last year, marking a significant shift in the decades-long clash that has already initiated the demystification of the mythology behind Israel. Truth continues to be the first casualty of war in this particular struggle, as it has been massacred, through the killings of journalists in Gaza and the censorship of dissidents, throughout the conflict along with the Palestinians themselves. Unfortunately for Israel, however, the state’s lies and brutality this time are too severe to escape the eyes of the global stage, and even its own people.

As David Hearst, co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Middle East Eye, states in this interview: “There are huge tensions in Israel about how the war was prosecuted, particularly the central tension is the obvious fact that Israel has been killing its own hostages through military action, obviously. And the narrative from Israel that Israel is pushing Hamas to release hostages is nonsense. It is the exact opposite. The main killer of the hostages has been the bombing campaign. So there is a huge protest about getting the hostages home. And getting the hostages home means ending the war, basically.”

Hearst joins host Chris Hedges on the second episode of The Chris Hedges Report to offer a clear and direct explanation of the complexities surrounding the conflict, providing essential context on what to anticipate moving forward. “What we've got to get really clear about is that our idea of left and right, or our idea of moderates and extremists, does not translate to Israeli realities. And when it comes to killing as many Palestinians as they can, everyone is up for it,” Hearst tells Hedges. The brazen violence that journalists like Hearst and others have reported on is pulling Israel’s mask of nobility down, and revealing its true face as the “ugly, repressive, hate-filled apartheid regime it always has been.”
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"Israel is Evil personified. Israel is Evil Embodied."
- Scott Ritter

And YOU, America, paid for every bomb, every bullet, every plane, every tank,
EVERYTHING the psychopathically degenerate monsters use to slaughter Palestinians.
Eternal shame and disgrace on us...

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM, Stock Market Crash? No, We Are In A Worldwide Financial Crisis Of Epic Proportions"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/7/24
"Stock Market Crash? No, We Are In A 
Worldwide Financial Crisis Of Epic Proportions"
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Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/7/24
"Big Banks Are Boosting Cash Reserves - Why? 
(I Am Expecting A Major False Flag Event)
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Bill Bonner, "FOMO NO MO'"

Click image for larger size.
Total Net Worth of the top 1% of Americans is $46.1 trillion, 
up from $4.7 trillion in 1990

"FOMO NO MO'"
Booms and busts are normal. But the feds - claiming to moderate the business 
cycle by countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy choices - actually make them worse.
by Bill Bonner

Poitou, France - "There are two main emotions in the stock market - greed and fear. A wise pro avoids them both. He looks at the situation like a doctor with a patient. No joy at the bedside when the recovery begins. No tears at the cemetery gate when it doesn’t. He just tries to figure out what is going on.

But the great mass of people in the stock market are amateurs, more like the hometown crowd at a football game than dispassionate analysts. When the team is winning... they want to be in the stadium. And they have a Fear of Missing Out when they are not. Then, comes a losing streak... and they stay home. FOMO... no mo’.

Where we are in this season’s stock market games is unclear. There have been some big wins - Nvidia at $3.3 trillion! But recently, there have been some disheartening losses too - with investors in Nvidia losing almost a trillion dollars in three weeks.

The selloff was blamed on the Bank of Japan’s intention to raise its lending rates. In today’s news, we see it trying to correct its ‘error.’ Bloomberg: "BOJ Sends Dovish Signal After Rate Hike Sparked Market Meltdown." "Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida sent a strong dovish signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility in Japan by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable."

Prices are just information. They tell us how much one thing is ‘worth’ compared to all the other things one might buy. Markets are always ‘unstable’ because price information changes all the time. So, there’s no particular reason for the BOJ to favor high prices over low ones... or stability over instability. What gives?

As near as we can figure, the Primary Trend is a confluence of emotion and brainpower... policies and happenstance. If it were all a matter of policy choices, you’d think that the geniuses at central banks would have figured out how to control it by now.

But they err and stray like lost sheep. Some things just have to be experienced. You can arrange a date. You can study the dating profile... is that a recent photo, you wonder? What does she mean by “flexible,” you ask yourself? You can decide what restaurant to go to and which shirt to wear. But you can’t decide to fall in love. That will have to happen - or not - on its own. Likewise, the correct price of credit - the prevailing interest rate - can only be discovered, by willing buyers and sellers, canoodling together. Otherwise, it is unknown.

Wrong Answers Only: What should the interest rate be today? At any given moment, there is only one right answer. But the Fed’s FOMC doesn’t know what it is. And there are an infinite number of wrong answers. So, Central Banks are almost always wrong; every policy choice is an error.

The error choice is binary. One, a rate too low, encourages excess borrowing and speculating... two, a rate too high, stifles borrowing and spending. Either way, the amateurs are going to be drawn - towards FOMO... or towards FOMO NO MO’. The trend toward greed or fear - a natural part of the human condition - is thereby exaggerated. In other words, booms and busts are normal. But the feds - claiming to moderate the business cycle by countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy choices - actually make them worse.

While the Fed’s choice of policy errors is binary, it is not random. If it were - if the Fed set its key rate too high half the time, and too low the other half - the errors would even themselves out. There may be more volatility in the credit and equity markets, but rates and prices would ultimately average out to where they ought to be.

Alas, the Fed (along with other central banks) has a strong bias towards FOMO... and against FOMO NO MO’. Owned by big banks, it is a creature of Wall Street as well as Washington. It is not ‘independent.’ Its analysts, PhDs and economists are not dispassionate. They are all members of the elites for whom the system was created and to whom it grants its favors. They stand and cheer for FOMO. And when FOMO NO MO’ comes, they cut rates to stop it. That’s why we have $35 trillion of national debt... and Nvidia priced as though it were worth more than the entire annual output of the UK.

The ‘errors’ are harmful to most people. But they benefit some. Since 1990, the bottom 50% of the population has gained about $46,000 each in household wealth. The top 1%, however, has gained $30 million - each. Or 680 times as much. So, if the Fed has its way, we will have plenty of FOMO... and NO MO’ stinkin’ FOMO NO MO’. Is that clear?"
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Dan I Allegedly, "People are Putting Their Safety at Risk"

Full screen recommended.
Dan I Allegedly, AM 8/7/24
"People are Putting Their Safety at Risk"
"You cannot make this up. People are risking their own safety for the dream of homeownership, and it's getting INSANE. From skyrocketing homeownership costs to the economic breakdown we're facing, there's so much to unpack."
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Adventures With Danno, "Massive Price Increases At Sam's Club!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 8/7/24
"Massive Price Increases At Sam's Club!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Sam's Club and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices as it continues to get rough out here for many struggling families trying to put food on the table!"
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Tuesday, August 6, 2024

"Alert! Iran Goes Into Lockdown, Businesses Close; Diplomats Flee Israel"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 8/6/24
"Alert! Iran Goes Into Lockdown, Businesses Close; 
Diplomats Flee Israel"
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The Atlantis Report, "Banks Are Raising Fees for ALL Customers As Americans Prepare To Pay Up"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 8/6/24
"Banks Are Raising Fees for ALL Customers 
As Americans Prepare To Pay Up"
"Recently, retail banking in the United States has seen significant changes that affect millions of customers nationwide. Major banks like JP Morgan and Chase have announced plans to introduce new fees on services that were previously free. This has sparked widespread concern and criticism, especially as it coincides with rising delinquency rates, increased bankruptcies, and a general slowdown in loan growth. These new fees come at a time when many Americans are already dealing with financial challenges due to the rising cost of living and economic uncertainties, adding an extra burden of higher banking costs for consumers. Banks are raising fees for all customers as Americans prepare to pay up."
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Jeremiah Babe, "A Massive Economic Storm Is Coming And It's Getting Very Close"

Jeremiah Babe, 8/6/24
"A Massive Economic Storm Is Coming 
And It's Getting Very Close"
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Judge Napolitano, "Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: Can Palestine Be Free?"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 8/6/24
"Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: Can Palestine Be Free?"
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Gerald Celente, "Market Meltdown, Crash Coming"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 8/6/24
"Market Meltdown, Crash Coming"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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Musical Interlude: Liquid Mind, "Zero Degrees Zero"

Liquid Mind, "Zero Degrees Zero"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Distorted galaxy NGC 2442 can be found in the southern constellation of the flying fish, (Piscis) Volans. Located about 50 million light-years away, the galaxy's two spiral arms extending from a pronounced central bar have a hook-like appearance in wide-field images. But this mosaicked close-up, constructed from Hubble Space Telescope and European Southern Observatory data, follows the galaxy's structure in amazing detail.
Obscuring dust lanes, young blue star clusters and reddish star forming regions surround a core of yellowish light from an older population of stars. The sharp image data also reveal more distant background galaxies seen right through NGC 2442's star clusters and nebulae. The image spans about 75,000 light-years at the estimated distance of NGC 2442."

Kahlil Gibran, "The Madman"

"The Madman"
by Kahlil Gibran

"It was in the garden of a madhouse that I met a youth with a face pale and lovely and full of wonder. And I sat beside him upon the bench, and I said, “Why are you here?” And he looked at me in astonishment, and he said, “It is an unseemly question, yet I will answer you. My father would make of me a reproduction of himself; so also would my uncle. My mother would have me the image of her seafaring husband as the perfect example for me to follow. My brother thinks I should be like him, a fine athlete. And my teachers also, the doctor of philosophy, and the music-master, and the logician, they too were determined, and each would have me but a reflection of his own face in a mirror. Therefore I came to this place. I find it more sane here. At least, I can be myself.” Then of a sudden he turned to me and he said, “But tell me, were you also driven to this place by education and good counsel?”
And I answered, “No, I am a visitor.”
And he answered, “Oh, you are one of those who live in the madhouse on the other side of the wall...”

The Poet: Grace Schulman, “Blessed Is The Light”

“Blessed Is The Light”

“Blessed is the light that turns to fire, and blessed the flames 
that fire makes of what is burns.
Blessed the inexhaustible sun, for it feeds the moon that 
shines but does not burn.
Praised be hot vapors in earth's crust, for they force up
mountains that explode as molten rock and cool like
love remembered.
Holy is the sun that strikes sea, for surely as water burns
life and death are one. Holy the sun, maker of change,
for it melts ice into water that bruises mountains, honing 
peaks and carving gullies.
Sacred is the mountain that promises permanence but
changes, planed by rockslides, cut by avalanche,
crushed, eroded, leeched for minerals. 
Sacred the rock that spins for centuries before it shines,
governed by gravity, burning into sight near earth's
orbit, for it rises falling, surviving night.
Behold the arcs your eyes make when you speak. Behold 
the hands, white fire. Branches of pine, holding votive
candles, they command, disturbed by wind, the fire that
sings in me.
Blessed is whatever alters, turns, revolves, just as the gods
move when the mind moves them.
Praised be the body, our bodies, that lie down and open 
and rise, falling in flame.”

~ Grace Schulman

The Point..."

"What is the point? We assume that every time we do anything we know what the consequences will be, i.e., more or less what we intend them to be. This is not only not always correct. It is wildly, crazily, stupidly, cross-eyed-blithering-insectly wrong!"
- Douglas Adams, “The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide”

"Wars And Rumors Of War, 8/6/24"

Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 8/6/24
"Russia's Gloves Are Off as NATO Makes 
Fatal Mistake, Ukraine in Trouble"
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Full screen recommended.
Richard Medhurst, 8/6/24
"Russia’s Shoigu Arrives in Iran With Weapons,
 US Sends Israel Aircraft Carrier & More"
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Full screen recommended.
"‘I Cry Quietly’: 
A Soldier Describes the Toll of Russia’s War"
"For Valentyn, a Ukrainian soldier in the Donetsk region, the war’s death toll is more than a statistic. He is tasked with moving wounded troops - and dead bodies - away from the front lines, often under Russian fire."

"Under Russian Fire, 
A Ukrainian Soldier Evacuates the Wounded"
By Yousur Al-Hlou and Masha Froliak

Near Kremmina, Ukraine - "The sound of artillery launching and landing along the front line punctures the stillness of the forest just a few miles away, where combat medics are waiting to receive the wounded. On the horizon, a military vehicle moves along a dusty road and screeches to a halt when it reaches the trees. A soldier named Valentyn parks it there for natural camouflage from Russian drones scouting for Ukrainian military positions.

A group of soldiers, visibly shaken, quickly unloads three bodies that have just been recovered from the front line, placing each one into a plastic body bag and zipping it closed. Their position was shelled and then attacked by a drone, they say. “They’re shooting at you from all sides. You turn, you run, they hit you, and it’s impossible to get away,” said Maksym, who survived the attack. “This is a big tragedy for us.” “One more body is left behind with the Russian soldiers,” he added.

While much of the world’s attention has fixated on the bloody urban battle taking place in Bakhmut, Russia’s campaign in eastern Ukraine is also raging in forests and fields about 50 miles north of the city, near Kreminna. Here, soldiers take positions in trenches surrounded by tall, slim trees, crouching to avoid the direct line of sight of their Russian enemies. “People say it’s harsh in Bakhmut,” said Valentyn, who joined the army seven months ago. “But it’s harsh here, too.”

For the past month, Valentyn has been stationed at this evacuation point, traveling back and forth to the front line almost daily to rescue wounded soldiers and recover the dead. His job requires him to drive directly toward Russian forces, and he has come under fire at times. “There is nothing good about it,” Valentyn said. “What is this war for?”

Ukrainian and Russian military officials have been reluctant to release data on casualties within their ranks, though the U.S. government and military experts estimate that both sides have suffered significant losses in the tens or hundreds of thousands.

For Valentyn, the work of responding to the casualties has been both grim and relentless. “There is blood everywhere,” he said, while cleaning it from his vehicle. “It has a smell. Especially fresh blood.” Bright red liquid trickled through his fingers as he rinsed out a bloodied cloth. He drained the cloth and used it again to wipe off the back seat. “It’s difficult to see young boys die,” Valentyn said. “Sometimes I cry quietly.”

In calmer moments when there is no one to evacuate, Valentyn travels deep into the forest to transport soldiers to and from the contact line, where Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are sometimes positioned just hundreds of meters apart. He said at least one group of soldiers couldn’t make it to their position because Russian troops had already taken it over.

“Every day is scary here,” said Viktor, a soldier who returned with Valentyn. “I feel constant anxiety, for our country and our lives.” His stoic face reflected the fear and horror known only to those who had witnessed the fight in the forest. “Those who haven’t been there will never understand.”

Over 600,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers, 80,000 dead Russians...

Adventures With Danno, "I Don't Even Know How To Discuss This! It's About To Get Ugly!"

Adventures With Danno, PM 8/6/24
"I Don't Even Know How To Discuss This! 
It's About To Get Ugly!"
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The Daily "Near You?"

New Britain, Connecticut, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Bill Bonner and Tom Dyson, "Honest Prices"

"Honest Prices"
Stock prices are primarily information. They tell investors where their capital can be most fruitfully employed. The important thing is not that prices be high or low, but that they be honest.
by Bill Bonner and Tom Dyson

Poitou, France - "The first bomb went off last week. Then, yesterday, came the big ka-boom. Al Jazeera: "Japanese stocks have recorded their biggest losses since October 1987, spurred by concerns the United States’ economy may be in weaker health than previously thought. The Nikkei share average was down 10% or 3,595 points to 32,314 in the early afternoon, its lowest in months." Those poor long-suffering Japanese investors. After the crash in 1990, they waited for an entire generation to get their money back. And then, after enjoying it for only a few months... boom... another blow-up. But wait... could something like that happen in the US?

Nah... no chance... right? Markets Insider: "Dow plunges more than 1,000 points as global stock rout deepens on recession. US stocks crashed on Monday, with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 6% as the global market rout that kicked off late last week accelerated. Since Thursday, the S&P 500 is down about 7% while the Nasdaq 100 is down 9%. The losses accelerated on Monday after Japan's stock market experienced its worst decline since the Black Monday crash in 1987, falling 12%."

After the explosions, the financial press went to the scene. As if investigating a terrorist attack, the newshounds sniffed around for whom to blame. They followed up on leads. They talked to witnesses. But they misunderstood almost everything.

In the first place, they acted as if lower prices were worse than higher ones. They imagined hopeless investors leaping out of windows or putting guns to their heads. But most people are not long stocks... they are short. That is, most people don’t own them. And the less of the world’s wealth is controlled by stock market gamblers, the better off (relatively) most people are.

Besides, stock prices are primarily information... they tell investors where their capital can be most fruitfully employed. The important thing is not that prices be high or low... but that they be honest. Central banks, however, have suborned the world’s capital markets... making them lie about how much they are really worth. As a result, trillions of dollars were misallocated.

In the tech sector alone, the Magnificent Seven more than doubled in the last year. Nvidia rose to more than $3 trillion dollars - more than any company the world has ever seen. Its CEO, Jensen Huang, became a celebrity. At conferences, women unbuttoned their shirts so he could autograph their bras.

And now, Mr. Market seems to be ready to teach them all a lesson. Looking for a culprit, the financial press pointed at the Bank of Japan which had raised interest rates last week. This was a ‘policy error,’ said the analysts. It was not. It was just a desperate move to protect the yen... after decades of ‘policy errors’ in the other direction. Lending far too much money, at rates that were far too low... for far too long... leaves Japan with far too much debt.

Analysts are also blaming the Fed. It should have announced a rate cut last week, they say. And now, they’re already suggesting another ‘policy error’ - an emergency rate cut. So, let’s pause... and get our bearings.

Primary Trend Reversal: The Fed left its key lending rate below zero for more than ten years. This ‘policy error’ had caused all kinds of mischief... most prominently, it led to extremely high asset prices and a mountain of debt. Then, the Primary Trend reversed course, in two moves, one in July 2020, the other in January 2022. After four decades, both stock and bond markets turned around. Bonds sold off. Stocks sold off too... then dilly dallied around... with nominal prices rising, but no increase in real, inflation-adjusted, values.

In 2022, the Fed was forced to raise rates to fight the inflation caused by cheap credit and stimmy checks. But higher rates are a death sentence to an over-stretched debtor. Our guess, back in 2022, was that the Fed would stick with its inflation fighting ‘until something breaks.’ Then, in a panic, it would cut rates again. Has something broken? We don’t know yet. But when it does, the Fed will have only two choices: inflate or die.

Either it returns to inflating the economy with more under-priced credit money. Or, it allows the bubble economy to die. Either way, we will stay in Maximum Safety Mode until we can buy quality companies at fair prices. More to come..."

Market Note, by Tom Dyson: "The world asset markets have become ludicrously unbalanced... with almost all the value growth of the past decades accruing to US-based, dollar-based assets. The chart below from Goldman Sachs shows this dynamic at work in the global equity market.

What we are seeing here is the work of a self-reinforcing cycle - also known as 'reflexivity' - where rising US asset prices attracted the world's savings which drove US asset prices higher, which attracted more of the world's savings and on and on.

My overarching proposition is, this cycle has gone as far as it can go and is now unwinding, generating reflexivity in the opposite direction and will ultimately result in a great deflation of asset values. The market action of the past few days is a small sample of what's to come..."
Click image for larger size.
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8/6/24: "'Dead Cat Bounce', As Expected."
In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock. Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", the phrase is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. This may also be known as a "sucker rally".

Gregory Mannarino, "The FED Says They Will Fix The Economy, We Are In Serious Trouble"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/6/24
"The FED Says They Will Fix The Economy, 
We Are In Serious Trouble"
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Adventures With Danno, "Massive Sale At Target!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 8/6/24
"Massive Sale At Target!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Target, and there is a massive amount of different sales going on. From back to school sales to gift card rewards on select home care products. Get your notepad ready as I take you along with me as I showcase all of these different ways to save money at Target!"
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Meanwhile, elsewhere...
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 8/6/24
"I Went to Russia's Largest Cheese Festival"
"Talk a walkaround with me at Russia's Largest Cheese Festival. The famous Istra Cheese Festival is held at the Istra Cheese Factory by Oleg Sirota. The festival brings together cheese makers from all over Russia."
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"How It Really Is"

"Back when I taught at UCLA, I was constantly amazed at how little so many students knew. Finally, I could no longer restrain myself from asking a student the question that had long puzzled me: ''What were you doing for the last 12 years before you got here?''
- Thomas Sowell
"The problem isn't that Johnny can't read. The problem isn't even that Johnny can't think. The problem is that Johnny doesn't know what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling."
- Thomas Sowell
"The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds." - Will Durant
"It takes considerable knowledge just to  realize the extent of your own ignorance."
- Thomas Sowell

"The Upside Of Adversity"

"The Upside Of Adversity"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"We all know the downside of adversity: it's tiresome, and if it pushes us up against our limits long enough, it can break us. If my life is any indication, some of our adversity is outside our choosing and control, while other instances of adversity result from our own decisions and/or traits. We may take risks with the goal of advancing, and end up with adversity. We may choose a difficult path and find it far more arduous than we could possibly have imagined. Or we may have experienced success from the start, and be unprepared for the adversity that inevitably follows easy success.

Longtime correspondent Matthew W. recently observed that humans share a core trait with other forms of life: "Just like animals and crops, if you give too much up front, they grow weak, and being unable to stand any hardship, eventually succumb to simple problems that any normal living thing could tolerate. I see the same application in work. The one who must struggle ceaselessly during training flourishes when placed into a space that requires typical prowess, whereas those who are constantly led by the hand, require massive support systems to do even simple tasks, until their ineptitude ultimately bankrupts the company, leading to their loss of work."

This is the upside of adversity: a steady diet of adversity prepares one for both the low-level adversities of daily life (Murphy's Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong, etc.) but also for the metaphorical droughts and floods that push us to our limits of endurance and adaptability.

As the famed stoic emperor Marcus Aurelius observed, "You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." In other words, we don't control everything going on around us, we only control our response to the circumstances we find ourselves in.

Where we find strength to endure adversity depends on our experience and personality. In the modern era, the Existentialists perceived the world as devoid of absolutes, and so we make our lives by our actions. Ralph Waldo Emerson said as much: "Do the thing and you shall have the power."

My summary is: never mind what you think or feel, just do the work: persevere above all else. Marcus said much the same: "Begin - to begin is half the work, let half still remain; again begin this, and thou wilt have finished."

It is noteworthy that Marcus spent the entire first chapter of his Meditations expressing gratitude to all those who taught him and aided his advance in skills and wisdom. Gratitude for what we have and have learned helps us orient ourselves to the task at hand, enduring adversity and emerging stronger as a result. Here is Marcus: "Let not your mind run on what you lack as much as on what you have already."

There is also the strength found in faith, something philosopher Soren Kierkegaard addressed in the 19th century. To have faith that the adversity we must endure is as it should be, despite the difficulties and suffering: "And when one knows the frightful truth that there is no evasion or excuse, then one does what one shall." (page 15, "The Lily of the Field and the Bird of the Air")

For Kierkegaard, faith is not only seeking God's aid, it is a life-changing experience: "The function of prayer is not to influence God, but rather to change the nature of the one who prays."

Marcus expressed similar notions of fate and faith: "Nothing happens to any man that he is not formed by nature to bear. Here is the rule to remember in the future, When anything tempts you to be bitter: not, 'This is a misfortune' but 'To bear this worthily is good fortune.' Everything that happens happens as it should, and if you observe carefully, you will find this to be so."

The Taoists viewed the world as constant change, and our adversities arise from seeking the impossible: to lock in a situation that suits us. As Lao Tzu wrote in the Tao Te Ching (Dao De Jing), "Reversal is the movement of Tao." For the Taoists, the highest skills flow from constant practice until the skills summon themselves.

Marcus possessed the same wisdom: "Observe constantly that all things take place by change, and accustom thyself to consider that the nature of the Universe loves nothing so much as to change the things which are, and to make new things like them."

And so how to we proceed in the face of adversity? By moving forward: As Lao Tzu wrote: "The journey of a thousand li begins with a single step."

Here is Marcus: "Forward, as occasion offers. Never look round to see whether any shall note it… Be satisfied with success in even the smallest matter, and think that even such a result is no trifle."

For Kierkegaard, the ultimate purpose of life is to acquire oneself, to become true to oneself: "The most common form of despair is not being who you are. The greatest hazard of all, losing one's self, can occur very quietly in the world, as if it were nothing at all. No other loss can occur so quietly."

If we can remain true to ourselves, then we'll discover what Marcus knew: "Where a man can live, he can also live well." It is wise to focus on what we can do in the present moment, but also wise to explore our past for insights and strengths we can apply to the present: Marcus: "Confine yourself to the present." Kierkegaard: "Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards."

"Money Size Comparison in Cash"

Full screen recommended.
Data Ball, 4/24
"Money Size Comparison in Cash"
Comments here:
o
"$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen – 
Egon von Greyerz"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"There is sufficiency in the world 
for Man's need but not for his greed." 
Mahatma Gandhi

"Egon von Greyerz (EvG) stores gold for clients at the biggest private gold vault in the world buried deep in the Swiss Alps. EvG is a financial and precious metals expert. EvG is a former Swiss banker and an expert in risk. He says the risk in the global markets has never been this high.

EvG explains, “Credit has increased dramatically through derivatives. All instruments being issued now by banks, pension funds, stock funds, it’s all synthetic. There is no real underlying payments in anything almost. Therefore, my estimate for derivatives would be at least $2 quadrillion, and I think that is probably conservative. Then, we have debt on top of that of $300 trillion, and we also have a couple hundred trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities. So, we are talking about $2.5 QUADRILLION, and that’s with a global GDP of $88 trillion. So, there is a disaster waiting to happen, and especially because all this created money has created no value whatsoever. I always knew this would collapse, and it’s taken longer than I expected, but I think we are at the end of a major era. 

These derivatives, at some point soon, will actually turn into debt. Central banks will have to cover all the outstanding liabilities of the commercial banks as we are seeing now with Credit Suisse, Bank of England and etc. This is going to happen across the board. Whether it’s called derivatives or called debt, as far as I am concerned, it’s the same thing. It will have the same effect on the world financial system, which will be disastrous, of course.”

EvG says the derivative markets were simply a way for financial institutions to carry debt and not show it on their balance sheets. In the end, everything will balance out. EvG goes on to say, “Nobody can repay the debt, and they can’t even pay interest. So, therefore, when the debt implodes, so will the assets that were financed by this debt. So, both sides of the balance sheet have to come down. Whether it comes down by 50%, 75% or 90%, I don’t know. All I think about is risk, and the financial system will not survive in its present form. Central banks only use one kind of medicine, and that is more printed money. Now, you are getting negative returns on printed money. So, that is not going to save anything. 

Sadly we are looking at a situation when this system will start to implode. The rich are still rich, but the poor are really poor. Overall in the UK, Germany and most European countries, people don’t have enough money to live. This is a human disaster already. With food costs going up 25% and energy going up the same and gasoline, interest rates and rents, people don’t have enough money, and that is happening now. It’s a human disaster of mega proportions. It’s so sad, and governments will have no chance of doing anything about it. The risk is increasing exponentially,  and it is going to get worse.” There is much more in the 43-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management, which can be found on GoldSwitzerland.com
o

"How It Is In The Real World"

Full screen recommended.
Cash Jordan, 8/6/24
"Every NYC Subway Store is Closing… Over Crime"
"The NYC Subway is home to many a shopping center, but these are now 75% vacant as businesses flee and stores shut down. Some blame remote work and online shopping for the demise of NYC's subway malls, but perhaps there's another reason..."
Comments here:
o
The Economic Ninja, 8/6/24
"It's Over"
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"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we lose our 
freedoms it will be because we have destroyed ourselves from within." 
- Abraham Lincoln

What's it like near you, Good Citizen?

Dan, I Allegedly, "Crisis Alert - They Can’t Fix This"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 8/6/24
"Crisis Alert - They Can’t Fix This"
"With the stock market heading downward and real estate bad loans being hidden from us this is going to get much worse. We're diving deep into the chaos unfolding in the banking sector. As mortgage loans go unpaid and commercial real estate crashes, banks are hiding massive losses. This is a ticking time bomb that you need to know about!"
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Monday, August 5, 2024

"What We the People Owe"

"What We the People Owe"
by Brian Maher

"Donald Trump pledges to Make America Great Again. Kamala Harris pledges… something. Yet she believes her policies will work the identical effect. We are skeptical - deeply - that either is equal to the task.

The United States’ debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 120%. Hard evidence indicates that nations with ratios exceeding 90% are destined to gutter. They are far too burdened by debt to get along much. Debt is an impossible millstone upon their straining necks. United States national debt recently scaled $35 trillion. Combined United States debt - public and private - exceeds $101 trillion. 101 trillion!

Then There’s the Interest: Meantime, the interest on its monstrous debts begins to devour its innards. The Congressional Budget Office projects that debt service will scale 3.2% of the United States economy next year. Only once before has debt service bulked so large - in 1991. That bill was largely the legacy of the elevated interest rates of the late 1970s.

What is our excuse today? None exists. Explains the Peter G. Peterson Foundation: "In the past, increases in deficits and the debt were associated with temporary or one-time episodes, such as war or economic downturns. Now, however, deficits have become the norm due to the structural mismatch between federal spending and revenues.

CBO estimates that the gap will continue to grow; federal spending is projected to grow from 23.1% of GDP in 2024 to 27.9% by 2054, while revenues would only climb from 17.5% of GDP in 2024 to 18.8% in 2054."

It Won’t Change Under Trump: Would a President Trump declare a halt - and draw blue lines across the federal budget? We do not believe he would. The fellow spent extravagantly and luxuriously in his initial term… even prior to the plague. The frugal ghost of Calvin Coolidge is unlikely to invade him next time. Poor Cal’s shade has been absent from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. since the Great Depression. It will remain absent from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. And the Republican Party - that Mr. Trump would theoretically represent - long ago exorcized Cal’s penny-pinching spirit. It likes to get elected. It therefore likes to spend money.

Harris Would Be Even Worse: Meantime, the sitting vice president, la Harris, represents what has accurately been labeled “the party of government.” That is of course the Democratic Party. Would a Democratic president sever the purse strings that fund government? The question is itself the answer. If elected, Ms. Harris would only spend. She would not cut. In brief: Government will spend under either regency, Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris. The former may purchase greater quantities of guns than butter… while the latter may purchase greater quantities of butter than guns. Yet it makes no nevermind. The results will equal.

Just No Political Will: “Even awful fiscal problems are fixable with the right steps,” says Daily Reckoning contributor Jeffrey Tucker, adding: "The problem is that the steps absolutely must include dramatic spending cuts, meaning 1–2% of GDP for starters or about $280–500 billion, which is not even on the table. “Not even on the table,” Jeffrey says.

Nor will dramatic spending cuts appear upon the table. Here Jeffrey lowers his ax upon the problem’s root: "The trouble is that there is very little political will in this country right now to cut the budget. And by cut, again, I don’t mean cuts in the rate of increase, like Washington language always says. I mean real cuts with whole agencies being made to disappear, dozens of them instantly. Doing this is entirely possible with political will. But I’ve yet to see any evidence that such will exists in the United States today." You see no evidence of the political will because none exists. Yet politicians do not bear sole responsibility…

Look in the Mirror, Citizen: It is easy to indict the politician, it is true. It is easy to say this rascal has sunk the nation $35 trillion in debt. Yet as we have argued before: If we haul the politician into the dock… We the People must go with him. That is because the politician is simply We the People’s mirror. Could politicians humbug us into a $35 trillion debt absent our knowledge - or consent? Only under a very, very strange species of democracy.

We like being a big deal in this world. We therefore demand a glistening military machine with every whistle and bell. We also like being tickled and wooed. Thus we demand heaping doses of Social Security… Medicare… a Rolls-Royce education… and a million gaudy baubles. Yet we do not wish to pay for them in full. Gimme, gimme, we bark from one corner of our mouths. But don’t raise my taxes, we bellow from the other.

“Democracy in Action”: We claim we are heart and soul for limited government. Yet are we simply heart and soul for ourselves? Give me that tax break, says the one. No, give it to me, says the other. You can both go scratching, says the third. I deserve it more. A fourth files a claim of his own.

Meantime, the hard-luck farmer wants his back scratched. The hard-pressed businessman wants his belly rubbed. The hard-worked teacher wants her apple. Millions more are hard at the business. All scheme to work the angles, to get a bucket in the stream, to get a snout in the trough… to catch a penny. It is the triumph of “special interests” when the other fellow gets his - when his parsnips are buttered. Yet it is “democracy in action” when our own parsnips are buttered.

“Every Nation Gets the Government It Deserves”: Your editor does not claim a moral pristinity. He does not sit in judgment - or stand in judgment. As a scientist of American democracy, he merely observes… and studies. And as he has conceded before, he himself has parsnips. And as anyone, he enjoys a good buttering of them.

Why not get when the getting is there to be gotten? If Americans en masse opted to decline the offering, your editor would fall in with them… and reject the offer. He would enlist as a dutiful member of the regiment, willingly broken to the common harness. Yet Americans en masse will not decline the offering. Why then should he? Why should you? “Every nation gets the government it deserves,” said 18th-century French philosopher Joseph de Maistre. The United States has the government it deserves…"

"This Isn’t The End For The Financial Markets – The Truth Is That This Is Just The Beginning Of The Chaos…"

"This Isn’t The End For The Financial Markets – 
The Truth Is That This Is Just The Beginning Of The Chaos…"
by Michael Snyder

"If you are surprised by what is happening in the financial world right now, you probably haven’t been paying much attention. Stock prices were obscenely high and many investors were massively overleveraged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by more than 1,000 points on Monday, and stock prices are still obscenely high and many investors are still massively overleveraged. During the days ahead, we are going to see some wild ups and some wild downs, and this tragedy is going to take some time to fully play out. But without a doubt, we have got a major problem on our hands.

After the chaos that we witnessed on Friday, I wasn’t sure that we would see even more carnage on Monday, but that is precisely what transpired…"The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1,033.99 points, or 2.6%, to close at 38,703.27. The S&P 500 fell 3%, ending at 5,186.33. Both averages notched their worst daily losses since September 2022. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 3.43%, finishing at 16,200.08. At one point the Nasdaq was down more than 1,000 points."

That is the first time in history that has ever happened. If you can believe it, there was a time early on Monday when tech companies had collectively lost close to a trillion dollars in market capitalization. Tech stocks bounced back a bit the rest of the day, but the “Magnificent 7” are still collectively down about 3 trillion dollars from their all-time record high market capitalizations. That is a lot of money.

Over the last three trading sessions, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have all gotten absolutely hammered…"The Dow fell 5.24% over the last three trading days, turning in its worst three-day loss since Jun. 14, 2022, when it tumbled 5.91% in three days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.95% in the period. This marked the Nasdaq’s biggest three-day fall since Jun.13, 2022, when it tanked 10.57% in a three-day period. The S&P 500 lost 6.08% in three days for its sharpest pullback in that span since Jun.14, 2022, when it shed 7.03%."

But in Japan things have been even worse. On Monday, the Japanese experienced a stock market crash of epic proportions…"In Asia overnight, Japan stocks confirmed a bear market as Asia-Pacific investors had their first chance to react to the sour jobs figures in the U.S. from Friday. The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei, which closed at 31,458.42, was the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987 hit Wall Street. The loss of 4,451.28 points on the index was also the largest in terms of points in its entire history."

The good news is that we are due for a dead cat bounce. As I write this article, Japanese stocks are bouncing back in a major way, and the same thing could happen to U.S. stocks when the markets open here. So why is this happening?

Some are blaming the bad economic news that we have been getting and inaction by the Federal Reserve. Others are suggesting that what we are witnessing “is the result of investors having to untangle complicated, heavily leveraged trades”…But economists say the stock slide is not a surefire sign that a recession is ahead. The current sell-off, they say, is the result of investors having to untangle complicated, heavily leveraged trades that have artificially boosted stock values. The truth is that a lot of factors are at play.

But after several years of one way traffic, a lot of people are quite shocked by how rapidly stock prices have started to move in the other direction…“Investors have gotten so used to the stock market only going one way that now people are suddenly realizing, ‘Oh, stocks can also go down?’ ” said Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. “This is a situation where one weak data point – Friday’s jobs numbers – brought the bears out of hibernation.”

For a long time, the Federal Reserve and other global central banks were artificially propping up the financial markets. Now that artificial support has been withdrawn, and many are having difficulty “adjusting to the end of easy money globally”…“This is not the recession train; it’s just a good old-fashioned market panic,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US. “This is not a D.C.-inspired event, about a slowing job market or the Fed being behind the curve. It’s about a larger regime change, where investors are adjusting to the end of easy money globally.”

Of course the Fed could choose to intervene at any time. At this moment there is growing optimism that the Fed will come riding to the rescue with an emergency rate cut. In fact, many bond traders are placing very large bets that this is about to happen…"Bond traders are piling into bets that the US economy is on the verge of deteriorating so quickly that the Federal Reserve will need to start easing monetary policy aggressively - potentially before their next scheduled meeting - to head off a recession."

I wouldn’t recommend holding your breath waiting for that to take place. The Dow would probably have to fall to at least 35,000 before the Fed would even consider an emergency rate cut. But I do believe that one will probably be coming at their next scheduled meeting. Of course a rate cut isn’t exactly going to save us from what is eventually coming.

As James Howard Kunstler has aptly noted, “everything that can break is breaking”…"The wait is over. Everything that can break is breaking: stock markets, bond markets, the galaxy of derivatives — bets on this and that, which will never be honored. Banks are next. Gold and silver are hanging in there for dear life just now, because they’re actually worth something."

This doesn’t mean that every day is going to be a down day for the financial markets. During bull markets, the waters are calm and stock prices tend to rise slowly and steadily. During bear markets, the waters get very choppy and there are wild ups and downs. So if the Dow jumps hundreds of points in a single day, don’t think that the crisis is over. A huge swing either way is a bad sign. Also, please understand that we are not even close to the center of the storm yet. What we are experiencing right now is just early turbulence. The real pain is not likely to arrive for quite some time."
o