2002, "The Calling"
So, we rise from the rubble...
Monday, February 1, 2021
"A Look to the Heavens"
“This shock wave plows through space at over 500,000 kilometers per hour. Moving toward to bottom of this beautifully detailed color composite, the thin, braided filaments are actually long ripples in a sheet of glowing gas seen almost edge on. Cataloged as NGC 2736, its narrow appearance suggests its popular name, the Pencil Nebula.
About 5 light-years long and a mere 800 light-years away, the Pencil Nebula is only a small part of the Vela supernova remnant. The Vela remnant itself is around 100 light-years in diameter and is the expanding debris cloud of a star that was seen to explode about 11,000 years ago. Initially, the shock wave was moving at millions of kilometers per hour but has slowed considerably, sweeping up surrounding interstellar gas.”
"You May Know..."
"Then you will see the rise of the men of the double standard - the men who live by force, yet count on those who live by trade to create the value of their looted money - the men who are the hitchhikers of virtue. In a moral society, these are the criminals, and the statutes are written to protect you against them. But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law - men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims - then money becomes its creators' avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them. But their loot becomes the magnet for other looters, who get it from them as they got it. Then the race goes, not to the ablest at production, but to those most ruthless at brutality. When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket. And then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter.
Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."
Ayn Rand, “Atlas Shrugged”
"The New Reichstag Fire"
"The New Reichstag Fire"
by Jeff Thomas
"In one instance after another, history proves to be a reliable bellwether as to what will happen in the future. The reason that this is so often true is that, throughout the ages, whilst technology has been ever-changing, human nature remains essentially the same.
In November of 1932, the Nazis had lost considerable ground in Parliament but were still holding on to power, albeit tentatively. With only one-third of the vote and a federal election scheduled for March of 1933, the Nazis faced losing out to the Left-oriented parties. Then, on the night of 27th February 1933, flames erupted from the Reichstag.
The people of Germany were horrified that their parliament building had been burned. A man was immediately arrested who was claimed by the Nazis to be a communist working for the left-wing opposition parties. The German people called for a return to law and order. The Nazis acted swiftly, drawing up the "Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State." The act abolished freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and freedom of privacy. It additionally suspended the autonomy of the various German states. The Nazis were re-elected in the March election and, thereafter, would not need to have any concerns over their future rule. Absolute power was quickly created.
So, fast-forward to Washington, D.C., in 2021 and we have an attack on the Capitol Building. Within minutes of the attack, videos were all over the TV media. (Did the attackers conveniently send videos immediately to CNN and MSNBC, incriminating themselves? Seems doubtful.) One report stated that the "hundreds of demonstrators, among them Nazis and white supremacists, who carried out last week’s attempted coup did so under the guise that Trump’s claims of voter fraud and a stolen election were true."
Within the hour, the media rounded up Democrat leaders, who spoke of "an attempted coup" and "an unspeakable assault" and called for "the immediate impeachment of Donald Trump and his removal from office." Further, the same leaders called for the expulsion of Republican lawmakers who "attempted to overturn the election," stating that they "violated the 14th Amendment." The 14th Amendment states that "No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress [who has engaged] in insurrection or rebellion" against the United States. And such action against Mister Trump and his supporters in Congress would be entirely justifiable… if the accusations are indeed factual.
And that’s where we run into a bit of a snag. The demands for removal from office are based on two premises: first, that Mister Trump incited an attack on the Capitol Building, which he did not. He called for a protest, but that is all. He was within his rights to do so. Second, that the congressmen who back Mister Trump do so in support of his election fraud case – demanding that it be heard by the courts, which has been denied him. Whether we think of Mister Trump as the populist savior or regard him as a demon is unimportant. The action being called for is not justifiable within the Law.
But as long as we’re at it, we might put aside, for a moment, the vitriolic reporting regarding the attack on the Capitol and examine the videos objectively. Was this indeed an attempted coup – highly armed troops who acted with military precision? Well, no. In fact, the attackers seemed to have been divided into two groups. The first appear to be actual Trump supporters, some wearing silly outfits, wandering aimlessly in the Capitol and taking selfies with Capitol guards. (Not exactly your guerilla strike force.)
The second behaved more like the Antifa groups that were hired to create riots in some forty cities in the US in 2020. This latter group caused minor mayhem in the Capitol, then quickly left, after the videos had been filmed for the benefit of the media.
If we ignore the media rhetoric and study the videos objectively, what we see is, in fact, two entirely different groups entering the Capitol. The first are clearly Trump supporters, who, at worst, acted as vandals, stupidly breaking windows and pinching Mrs. Pelosi’s lectern whilst grinning for photos. Their behavior resembles a drunken frat party gotten out of hand, more so than an insurrection. But should Congress choose to press charges against them, they are legally justified in doing so.
The second group clearly had greater focus and caused a disturbance, damage to property and personal injury. These people, if they can be found, should also answer for their actions, regardless of whether they were paid by one side or the other to perform their little amateur drama.
What we witnessed was, in fact, a minor event of vandalism that was exacerbated by the fact that it took place at the Capitol Building. It pales in comparison to the scores of riots in America in 2020, with their burning of vehicles and buildings and even the takeover of public and private real estate. But this incident was immediately made use of to make demands to remove a president and some elected Republican members of Congress from office.
Immediately after the calls for removal, numerous other Republican congressmen hurried to the cameras to state that they in no way support Mister Trump at this point, then stood back to allow the Democrat lynch mob to do their worst.
And so, we look back again to the events after the Reichstag fire. People are shocked and scared. There’s a call for law and order. The Nazis acted swiftly, abolishing freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and freedom of privacy. The Nazis took full power from that date forward and transformed Germany into a collectivist state. In the US, the playbook has been altered slightly.
The president and others arguing in his favor were silenced by social media. Congressional sympathizers were threatened with expulsion. The conservative media have come under attack. (Freedom of assembly and privacy were already decimated in 2020.) The new regime now has full power and the observer must now ask himself what this will mean to his few remaining "inalienable" rights and whether his treasured Liberty will soon be just a memory."
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Related:
"Humanity Today..."
"Humanity today is like a waking dreamer, caught between the fantasies of sleep and the chaos of the real world. The mind seeks but cannot find the precise place and hour. We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology. We thrash about. We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life."
- Edward O. Wilson
"Taking Out the Shorts"
"Taking Out the Shorts"
By Bill Bonner
"The reason the market is doing what it’s doing is people are sitting at home, getting checks from the government. This “fair share” is a bullshit concept. It’s just a way of attacking wealthy people." – Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman
WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – "Bloomberg has the big news: "Silver Spikes Past $30 as Retail Investors Swarm Biggest Target". Silver broke above $30 an ounce as the precious metal took center stage in the retail investor frenzy sweeping through markets. Like the buying stampede in GameStop Corp. and other small-cap stocks that has captivated the financial world in recent weeks, silver’s advance can be traced to Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum. One post last week declared the metal “THE BIGGEST SHORT IN THE WORLD” and encouraged traders to pile into the iShares trust as a way to stick it to big banks."
MarketWatch adds: “Influencing the price of silver will not be as easy as a single small or medium sized single equity. Silver’s market cap is in the range of $1.4 trillion to $1.6 trillion as opposed to GameStop’s $1.5 billion before becoming the target of retail investors, and a large proportion of the market is off-exchange. However, it will be interesting to see the small players’ power and how much further they can push prices,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM."
Game on!
Snow Day: It’s a snow holiday here at the worldwide headquarters of the Diary. We don’t get many of them in Maryland, so each one is precious. Yesterday, it snowed all day. Today, the ground is covered in white, with a frosting of ice.
The farm in winter.
This is not the kind of snow or cold that Midwesterners suffer. God knows what a winter in Wisconsin is like. But here, snow storms are infrequent enough, and usually mild enough. So we are both completely unprepared for them and enjoy them thoroughly. This morning, we sit in front of the kitchen fire. What a delight!
A cozy spot on a cold day.
Last week, a guest (there haven’t been many during Anno Covidius) made the following observation: “I could spend all of my time checking Instagram, Twitter, Facebook… and following the news and the opinions… one leading to another one… It’s endless. And at the end of the day… what do I know? Who’s right? Who’s telling the truth? What is the truth? I’d rather spend the time baking a loaf of bread…”
Elizabeth added: “There’s a report out by a French psychologist that says a child’s IQ depends on how many hours he spends with electronic entertainment. The more time, the dumber he is. It also says that this is the first generation ever with lower IQs than their parents.”
Yesterday, we did nothing to lower our IQ. Instead, we spent much of the weekend cutting firewood and ricking it up in the barn. Then, after the snow began to build up, we put a blade on the back of the tractor to clear the road. Easier said than done… The old tractor – two-wheel drive, with well-worn tires – can’t make it up the hills when there is snow on the road. We have to raise the plow, and then get a running start. With a little luck, we get to the top and can then scrape off the snow on the way back down.
The result of our efforts.
But while the World Wide Web is full of lies, foolishness, and IQ-lowering time wasters… we nevertheless wade in – it’s our mission in life! We will wash the scum off later.
Angry Letter: The most entertaining story last week was the GameStop saga. Just when you thought you understood it, another layer of complexity appeared. But the most interesting part of the story, to us, anyway, was that this caused everyone to lose his sense of humor. Everyone seems to be angry. Today, we explain why.
When we write something that appears to be critical of Donald Trump, we get angry letters. When we write something that makes it appear that we do not appreciate Joe Biden, we get more angry letters. And most often, when we criticize them both, we get angry letters from both sides at once. Maybe we should stop reading the mail.
But what shocked us last week was that readers are angry about the stock market, too. On Thursday, we tried to explain – as best we could – what had happened with GameStop. The story was dazzling, multi-layered, and fast-moving. To us, it was just an illustration of how crazy things get when you distribute fake money. People start doing funny things with it – including playing high-stakes games in the stock market. But instead of appreciating the lark of it, people got mad – even at us!
Here’s one letter: "Bill, your arrogance is mind-bending. These kids didn’t invent the squeeze. The stock market has always been a gaming platform. The house lost! The status quo got its a** handed to it on a platter. Now, everyone is whining to his lobbyists and congressman to further rig the game in the house’s favor. These kids are sick of being left out of the “inside info,” “IPOs,” etc. The game is changing and these kids are smart enough to understand their power is only in their numbers."
Hardly had the sting eased when we realized that everyone was choosing sides. And Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, bless her heart, was making a federal case of it: "This is a serious matter. Committee investigators should examine any retail services freezing stock purchases in the course of potential investigations – especially those allowing sales, but freezing purchases."
And here’s Politico: "The spectacular rise of GameStop’s stock from a surge of buying by small investors has rattled both markets and Washington, with some lawmakers demanding that regulators step in and others threatening action against brokers that suddenly kneecapped retail traders on Thursday."
Crying Foul: Yes, as the story developed, it became something of a cause célèbre for the young Reddit traders… and an embarrassment to the trading platform that hosted them – Robinhood. In order to protect its clients, or so it said, (including perhaps its biggest clients – the Wall Street firms that fund it), it stopped taking buy orders on GameStop on Thursday.
The Reddit crew found this exceedingly unfair. Robinhood seemed to be protecting Wall Street and not the little traders. (More likely, it was protecting itself from a huge blow-up that would have put it out of business.) Meanwhile, the hedge funds that had shorted the GameStop stock were crying foul because it appeared that the price was being manipulated by these callow traders who were out to destroy them (see Cooperman, above).
Lost Their Shorts: And of course, everyone was already mad at the wicked Wall Street short-sellers. These companies earn their keep by identifying stocks that they think are overvalued. Sometimes, they can’t help but tell the world what a great opportunity they’ve found… and occasionally, are instrumental in causing the very price collapse they predict. (A smarter person would make a witty comment about how they exploit the Heisenberg Principle, but we can’t quite figure out how it works. Besides, it’s a snow holiday.)
The shorts borrow the stocks and sell them, hoping that the price will go down when they have to “cover” by buying back the stocks they borrowed. Of course, they don’t actually “borrow” anything. Instead, they receive money for selling shares they don’t own and have a contractual obligation to pay the money back based on the future value of the stock. The lower the share price goes, the less they have to pay back.
So naturally, they are keen to see in the newspapers that the Federal Trade Commission has just seized their target’s bank account and the CEO has been arrested for sex with a minor. (The most “activist” of the short-sellers are probably not above arranging a blind date.)
By the end of the week, the shorts had suffered billions in losses on GameStop. And the players who were “long” – such as discussions website Reddit standouts Roaring Kitty and DeepF**kingValue – were in the chips.
Apparently, Roaring Kitty was recently fired from MassMutual insurance company. According to the chatter on the World Wide Web, his bets on the video game seller have netted him some $33 million, which is not bad for a 34-year-old unemployed guy. And by Friday, word on the street was that not only had some of the hedge funds lost billions… at least one of them decided to get out of short-selling altogether. Citron Research, for example, announced that it “will no longer publish short report.” All good fun.
Hate the Rich: But why so much anger? You already know, don’t you, Dear Reader? Rolling Stone magazine explained: "Take a look at the last 15 years of American economic history. In 2007, a housing bubble burst and led to a financial crisis that threatened to take down massive financial firms. The government rushed to inject public funding into those private companies on the grounds that if megabanks failed, the fallout would be devastating for everyone. That’s true, but it’s also true that it’s devastating to lose a house you were told you could afford, or to get laid off, or to see your retirement savings wiped out. And all of that happened to a lot of people in the Great Recession, but no such emergency help was extended to them. The banks were “too big to fail,” but individuals weren’t, and many of them did.
The post-recession recovery saw the rich again do far better than anyone else. The main economic intervention during that time came in 2017, when Trump and the GOP massively slashed taxes for corporations and the wealthy — and then got around to some meager tax perks for workers. A few years later, Covid-19 threw us into another global economic crisis. Congress and the Federal Reserve found astonishing amounts of money for banks, airlines, and other big companies that needed cash fast. For most people, help (so far) has come in the form of a temporary bump in unemployment benefits and two skinny stimulus checks over the course of a year."
New Target: When the money goes, everything goes. You can quote us on that. And as things have been going, the fake money system cheats the young, the poor, and the middle classes, while enriching the top 10%, the insiders, the Establishment, and the elite. Few people understand what is really going on. But feelings of resentment and unfairness don’t need airtight logic to sustain them. And as the going gets worse, anger is bound to express itself in even more peculiar ways.
The Federal Reserve is still monetizing every cockamamie scheme to come down the pike. And now, the crowd of Reddit vigilantes is said to be targeting the silver shorts. How will it turn out? Stay tuned…"
"The Game is On"
"The Game is On"
by Jim Kunstler
"The hijinks playing out in financial markets instruct us that politics finally comes back to the soundness of our economic arrangements, no matter how far out into the asteroid belt of psychopathic ideology the nation veers. For instance, we’re about to find out how little race-and-gender hustling actually matters to the common good of this land. After their successful prank with GameStop, the subreddit vigilantes are aiming to send the price of silver to the silvery moon now, and, in the process, drive hedge-fund privateers and bankster short-sellers into insolvency, even if it wrecks the financial system.
Do you doubt that the system, led by the clueless and feckless Federal Reserve, was already beating a path to financial suicide? Two decades of trying to paper over America’s broken business model with money-from-nowhere, and failure of the authorities to regulate the games being played around that, switched off the price-discovery mechanism of markets. Does that sound abstruse? I’ll explain. Price-discovery is the main function of markets: to send correct signals as to the true price of everything, soybeans, iron ore, stocks, what-have-you, and, most importantly, the exact price of money itself, borrowed over a period of time: that is, term interest rates, meaning the cost of debt.
The price of silver (and of gold, too) have been among the most manipulated, suppressed, and perverted for many years because the rising price against paper currencies would signal the falling value of money, which would inform the people that their standard-of-living is falling — and nothing stirs up political anger like that. So, the regulatory authorities looked the other way when their cronies in big banks such as J.P. Morgan played games to suppress precious metal prices with a revolving short-selling scheme that regularly knocked down the price to discourage buyers from investing in precious metals.
It’s been fifty years since precious metals enjoyed any official peg with the US dollar, but for five thousand years previously gold and silver were money itself and paper currencies became mere representations of that money. That relationship ended in 1971 when President Nixon closed the “window” that allowed foreign countries to redeem gold in exchange for dollars they accumulated from the commercial trade of goods - and, our dollar being the world’s supreme reserve currency, the rest of the world’s currencies followed.
Despite all efforts since then by banking authorities to denigrate the value and the role of gold and silver in financial affairs, the “barbarous relics” retained a persistent influence in men’s minds because of their intrinsic qualities. These were: the vested energy they represented from mining and refining, their physical durability, portability, and divisibility, their freedom from counterparty obligations, and, especially in modern times, their vital usefulness in electronics and other industrial applications. The latter quality is greatly reinforced by the powerful wish to transition from a fossil fuel economy to an alt-energy economy of solar cells and wind turbines - a wish that probably won’t come true.
And so, as promised by the subreddit vigilantes, the silver price was up around $3 or ten percent in overnight trading going into the week’s Monday open. It looks like they mean bidness. And that could mean many things. The most obvious is a very conscious effort to punish the high hats of Wall Street for years of lawless game-playing that made them ultra-rich and left everybody else in the country impoverished. Some of the vigilantes frankly express the desire to wreck the degenerate banking system altogether, a great purge of evil to restore something like God-fearing accountability, moving toward a fresh and honest re-start of markets and banking. I’m not convinced that we would get any such orderly re-start in the sense that global banking could be reconstructed along pre-2020 lines.
Rather, wrecking the banks in a daisy-chain of shattered obligations would be an express ticket to the Palookaville of neo-medievalism I’ve been warning about, and probably in a sharp, disorderly, violent, and deadly episode of losing everything that has made us civilized. In any case, the country has already prepped itself for some kind of spectacular failure with all the social mind-f**kery of the past four years that eventuated with the empty shell of Joe Biden in the White House, and millions of his supporters swept into an epic hysteria of manufactured moral outrage over pseudo-realities initiated by academic racketeers and then weaponized by our politicians. But the game is on, whether you like it or not. This may be a last opportunity to get your minds right before you lose your country and your future."
"Never, Never..."
“To love. To be loved. To never forget your own insignificance. To never get used to the unspeakable violence and the vulgar disparity of life around you. To seek joy in the saddest places. To pursue beauty to its lair. To never simplify what is complicated or complicate what is simple. To respect strength, never power. Above all, to watch. To try and understand. To never look away. And never, never to forget.”
- Arundhati Roy
"Silver Swans, Maginot Lines and the Unforeseen Risks of Collapse"
"Silver Swans, Maginot Lines and
the Unforeseen Risks of Collapse"
by Charles Hugh Smith
"Many people have heard of Nassim Taleb's black swan but fewer understand how few events qualify as black swans. Per Wikipedia, a black swan is an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences, an event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.
Taleb's black swan theory refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. In other words, if an event was deemed possible but very low-risk, it isn't a black swan. France's Maginot Line offers an interesting example of the difference between events that are deemed low-probability and that play out in ways that weren't anticipated and a true black swan.
The Maginot Line was a defensive line of impregnable fortifications constructed in the 1930s to force any future German invasion of France (i.e. a replay of World War I) to go around the Line to the north, through Belgium. Should the German Army invade as planned through Belgium, the French reckoned that they would be able to mobilize their army in time to meet the invaders in Belgium in a decisive battle that would either result in a French victory or a trench-warfare stalemate like World War I.
The German invasion in 1940 did come through Belgium as anticipated, but the speed of the invading force was not foreseen by French war planners. The German forces pursued a strategy of Blitzkrieg (lightning war) that advanced deep into France in a matter of days, exploiting weaknesses in French communication, planning, logistics and tactics.
The attack came as expected but not in a manner that was expected. The French expected the Germans to follow the World War I script, a script that would lead to the defeat of the invasion. The Germans were understandably keen on doing something other than following a plan that would end in defeat and so they devised a new way of organizing and executing an invasion.
Understood in this fashion, France's rapid defeat was not a Black Swan. The Maginot Line did its job but the French pre-conflict war-gaming failed to anticipate German innovations in logistics, tactics and strategy. Put another way: their assessment of risk and their war-gaming of vulnerabilities were fatally deficient.
So does the crowdsourcing of gamed speculation that we're witnessing in the stock market qualify as a black swan or not? A strong case can be made that crowdsourcing would eventually move from fundraising and political action to gamed speculation in which an opt-in crowd agrees to share resources to stage a coordinated assault on speculative positions. If this could have been anticipated by extrapolating existing trends, it could be argued this doesn't qualify as a true black swan.
But an equally strong case can be made that two dynamics unleashed by the crowdsourcing of gamed speculation are black swans:
1. The effectiveness of the crowdsourcing in crippling the confidence of institutional players in building massive short positions in specific equities and instruments. Establishing massive short positions in equities was a relatively low-risk and highly profitable fiefdom of finance reserved for the privileged few of America's New Nobility (financiers, hedge funds, etc.) These positions were established with relative impunity. This is no longer the case, and the consequences, in classic black swan fashion, are unforeseen and potentially catastrophic.
2. This crowdsourcing has an emotional and politically charged agenda completely outside the conventions of finance and market speculation: participants want to take down the New Nobility. The unprecedented inequality of wealth, income and agency in America has fueled an inchoate rage against those who have benefited so immensely from the rigged system we're forced to accept as the status quo. I covered this recently in "The Coming Revolt of the Middle Class" (1/27/21).
The New Nobility is accustomed to profiteering with impunity, with little to fear from laws, regulations or serf/peasant blowback--case in point, Jeffrey Epstein. Now the peasantry has organized via crowdsourcing a means of eviscerating at least a few of the rapaciously profiteering Nobles, payback that is emotionally satisfying in ways those at the top of America's corrupt "leadership" and New Nobility class cannot understand, as they believe it is their "right" to assemble fortunes exceeding $100 million as super-privileged insiders by "Buying More Than $1 Million In Tesla, Disney And Apple Calls In December".
Let's call this a silver swan, an emergent dynamic with far-reaching and potentially extreme consequences. This silver swan isn't an imaginary comic-book character, it's a dynamic with real-world consequences that have barely begun to become visible. This silver swan is manifesting in a market that is exquisitely fragile, brittle and vulnerable to collapse for reasons I'll explore in upcoming posts.
One way to understand the risk of unforeseen collapse is: our Nobility's assessment of risk and their war-gaming of vulnerabilities are fatally deficient. As an appetizer to this topic, please review my recent posts:
"We can't unsee what's behind the curtain."
"The Madman..."
"The madman is not the man who has lost his reason.
The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason."
- GK Chesterton
"Economic Market Snapshot AM 2/1/21"
"Economic Market Snapshot AM 2/1/21"
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"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
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"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 2/1/21:
"Silver Taking Off! Gold, Stocks, Dollar, Crude, More"
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates
CNN Market Data:
CNN Fear And Greed Index:
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A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Jan 28th to Feb 1st, Updated Daily
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Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
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Daily Job Cuts
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And now, the End Game...
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Oh yeah...
Sunday, January 31, 2021
"Be Ready For Worlds Biggest Short Squeeze In Silver As Reddit Hordes Pile In"
"Insider Intel: "I work for a bank whose name I won’t disclose.
You fools. You have no idea what you’re doing."
"Be Ready For Worlds Biggest Short Squeeze
In Silver As Reddit Hordes Pile In"
by Epic Economist
"While all attention seems to be focused on GameStop and some other heavily-shorted stocks as they're reaching astronomical highs ever since WallStreetBets traders started to ignite an epic short-squeeze, over the past couple of days, another asset is becoming the newest target of the Reddit-Raiders. As we discussed a few days ago, it seems that the Reddit Rebellion is descending the precious metal market and, apparently, Silver will be their next choice to unleash the world's biggest short squeeze and collapse several major banks along the way. That's what we are going to expose.
Last week, WallStreetBets members started to discuss what could be their next move in what is being called the "Reddit Rebellion". The users started to debate that it was time to make an entrance into the most manipulated market on earth: the precious metals market. They argued that in addition to the enormous gains they could make with the assets, a really appealing plus would be sparking the implosion of several banks that have been manipulating gold and silver to cover real inflation, including JP Morgan. And considering the massive flows into the Silver Exchange-Traded Fund (SLV), it seems that they are already putting their plan into place. SLV witnessed inflows of nearly one billion dollars on Friday, almost double the previous record inflow for this 15-year-old ETF.
Consequently, that helped to induce a spike in SLV off Wednesday's lows of more than 11%. Short-interest in the ETF has also been building. As ZeroHedge reported in a recent article, this upswing has happened right after Reddit user 'TheHappyHawaiian' posted a very detailed thesis on the advantages of buying silver and highlighted that it was possible to make history by triggering the world's biggest short squeeze.
According to the Redditor, currently, those who are shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of big banking corporations and, the user stresses that "making them pay dearly for their over-leveraged naked shorts would be incredible". This time, it's not a hedge fund that will take the coup, their main target are now major banks and Redditors are going for blood. "It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, it's JP Morgan. It's time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades - just look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years!" he exclaimed.
In that sense, the squeeze could be set off by forcing a significantly higher percentage of the futures contracts to be actually delivered in physical silver. Taking into account that there is a very small amount of silver in the COMEX vaults or available to be effectively delivered, if massive purchases happen on the open market, the prices will be sent to record-highs since it's impossible to suddenly create more physical silver which is also ready to be delivered. Different from stocks, in which traders are able to just issue more shares if prices rise too much, there's no way to keep up with ramping demands for physical silver.
To provide a clearer picture of how that would occur, let's picture a situation in which a futures seller gets really unlucky with a buyer who demands to take delivery. If the seller doesn't have it and starts to see that will be incredibly difficult to find the silver, he would likely go long a matching number of futures contracts and require actual delivery on those. That would solve the problem in the short-term because the seller would attend to the demand of the buyer with a new seller, but then, that new seller would have the same issue as the previous seller and would likely make the same move, generating a cascade effect and potentially provoking a melt-up. In that way, all the naked shorts would attempt to offload their position to someone who actually own some silver. The Redditor reveals that this is the exact desired effect and says that the goal is to have the silver and do not sell it until it is at a much higher price due to desperation.
Finally, the last dominos to fall as a part of this narrative are inflation and currency debasement. As we repeatedly discussed on the channel, the government and the Federal Reserve have been recklessly printing money which is debasing the value of real dollars. For that reason, investors have been turning to hard assets as a form of wealth protection, which also contributes to drive up the demand for silver. The additional $1.9 trillion bill that will probably be passed over the next few weeks or months, combined with the reopening of the economy, will be the perfect catalyst for hyperinflation, as the Redditor signals, "once inflation starts it often feeds on itself". And altogether, that’s the perfect catalyst for much more financial chaos. Let the buyers beware."
Must Watch! "Silver Sold Out; Market Collapse Imminent; Hedge Funds Crushed; Prepare For Financial Crisis"
Jeremiah Babe,
"Silver Sold Out; Market Collapse Imminent; Hedge Funds Crushed;
Prepare For Financial Crisis"
"Alert! Markets, A Look Ahead: Physical Silver Supply Running Out!"
"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 1/31/21:
"Alert! Markets, A Look Ahead:
Physical Silver Supply Running Out!"
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Related, why this is important:
"Insider Intel: "I work for a bank whose name I won’t disclose.
You fools. You have no idea what you’re doing."
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A Comment: If, as Anonymous asserts, "all the banks will fail", and I personally believe they will, it could happen very rapidly, with consequences that will directly affect us all. This will get very ugly, as all the pension funds and insurance companies will also fail. Total systemic meltdown. When all the bank branches are closed, and the ATM system is down, credit cards don't work, what will you do? I'd suggest as a precaution withdrawing as much of your funds now, in cash, as they'll permit, while you can. Consider all your options well. - CP
"A Look to the Heavens"
“The large stellar association cataloged as NGC 206 is nestled within the dusty arms of neighboring spiral galaxy Andromeda (M31), 2.5 million light-years distant.
Seen near the center of this gorgeous close-up of the southwestern extent of Andromeda's disk, the bright, blue stars of NGC 206 indicate its youth. Its youngest massive stars are less than 10 million years old. Much larger than the clusters of young stars in the disk of our Milky Way galaxy known as open or galactic clusters, NGC 206 spans about 4,000 light-years. That's comparable in size to the giant stellar nurseries NGC 604 in nearby spiral M33 and the Tarantula Nebula, in the Large Magellanic Cloud.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap121024.html
Chet Raymo, “Walking Wary”
“Walking Wary”
by Chet Raymo
“Virginia Woolf called them "moments of being," those unanticipated encounters with something in nature (including, of course, human nature) that sets one back on one's heels, drops the jaw, sends chills up the spine. I use clichés, but the experiences are anything but clichés. What makes them special is the way they break through and illuminate what Woolf calls "the grey cotton wool" of everyday experience.
Sylvia Plath describes these rare and precious encounters in her poem "Black Rook in Rainy Weather." "Spasmodic tricks of radiance," she calls them. A "celestial burning" that takes possession of an ordinary object, setting the sight on fire. A wet black rook, arranging and rearranging its feathers in the rain: Something utterly ordinary that suddenly flares out as miraculous.
We are not talking about rooks alone, of course. We are talking about the self in interaction with the world. The flare flows both ways. The rook is illuminated by mind. The mind is set afire by rook. Don't go to psychologists or neurologists to explain what is happening; they are a long way yet from understanding. Go to the poets and mystics, who can't explain but do describe. "Hallowing an interval otherwise inconsequent," says Plath. And so it is that we walk blind and deaf through a world that by and large seems commonplace, inconsequent, and mute, whereas in fact even the most ordinary thing - a leaf, a cloud, a face - is miracle enough to exhaust our analytic powers, waiting, hoping, for the touch of grace, the breaking through.
I am aware that the two writers I have quoted, Woolf and Plath, were ultimately overwhelmed by the "dull, ruinous landscape." A particular sensitivity to the contrast between light and dark was surely part of their genius; it would seem that their savage gods demanded the ultimate sacrifice as the price of their Promethean gifts. As for the rest of us, we live without their depths of darkness, but also with the minor lights, those treasured moments of being when we are gifted with the understanding that the apparently ordinary is blindingly special.”
The Poet: Barbara Crooker, "In the Middle"
"In the Middle"
"In the middle
of a life that's as complicated as everyone else's,
struggling for balance, juggling time.
The mantle clock that was my grandfather's
has stopped at 9:20; we haven't had time
to get it repaired. The brass pendulum is still,
the chimes don't ring.
One day you look out the window,
green summer, the next, and the leaves have already fallen,
and a grey sky lowers the horizon. Our children almost grown,
our parents gone, it happened so fast.
Each day, we must learn
again how to love, between morning's quick coffee
and evening's slow return. Steam from a pot of soup rises,
mixing with the yeasty smell of baking bread.
Our bodies twine,
and the big black dog pushes his great head between;
his tail is a metronome, 3/4 time.
We'll never get there, Time is always ahead of us,
running down the beach, urging us on faster, faster,
but sometimes we take off our watches,
sometimes we lie in the hammock,
caught between the mesh of rope and the net of stars,
suspended, tangled up in love, running out of time."
~ Barbara Crooker
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